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All book discussion in this thread is now allowed. |
The amount of man is not important. The thing is that the wildlings either doubt strongly or don't believe him at all. The point is that they don't care and have made it very clear. "If you are lying, you are dead" paraphrased twice. I don't know how much the guy saw through the eagles eye but I assume they have their own idea of the amount of men.
Anyway, the most important is naked Ygrette, nothing else matter :D
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On April 30 2013 20:27 Hier wrote:Show nested quote +On April 30 2013 20:08 zatic wrote:On April 30 2013 19:54 Hier wrote:On April 30 2013 18:40 zatic wrote: [...] The Watch - about 700 left [...] Given the troops numbers we learned about before we can only assume he is lying at this point.
Everything Jon said was the truth; he rounded to about 1000. We don't actually have the solid numbers, missing a few here and there is not "lying". The reason the wildlings thought he was lying is because 1000 seems like a laughably low number, compared to their own. Well given the information we have from Aemon and the losses at the Fist it's about 700. And that is the Watch total, so all 3 manned castles, not just Castle Black. So he is significantly exaggerating. The other explanation would be that Aemon is wrong or was lying in season 1. At this point this seems less likely than Jon telling the Wildlings the wrong numbers. What is the difference between telling the wildlings there are 700 vs 1000 crows at the wall, compared to the horde of wildlings? Virtually none. Do you really think Jon, while being interrogated, did some quick mental math, considered the recent casualties, and added a negligible amount of crows (relative to the wildling numbers) to his resultant number after telling the complete truth right before that? For what? Jon told the truth, according to Jon. It's hardly an argument. Actually it is. If you remember, the wildlings with Jon were given an order to scale the wall, go to other side and open the door. For them it matters a lot if there are 300 more or less people guarding those doors (well some of those will be at other 2 castles).
haha: Ninja 
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Zurich15355 Posts
On April 30 2013 20:27 Hier wrote:Show nested quote +On April 30 2013 20:08 zatic wrote:On April 30 2013 19:54 Hier wrote:On April 30 2013 18:40 zatic wrote: [...] The Watch - about 700 left [...] Given the troops numbers we learned about before we can only assume he is lying at this point.
Everything Jon said was the truth; he rounded to about 1000. We don't actually have the solid numbers, missing a few here and there is not "lying". The reason the wildlings thought he was lying is because 1000 seems like a laughably low number, compared to their own. Well given the information we have from Aemon and the losses at the Fist it's about 700. And that is the Watch total, so all 3 manned castles, not just Castle Black. So he is significantly exaggerating. The other explanation would be that Aemon is wrong or was lying in season 1. At this point this seems less likely than Jon telling the Wildlings the wrong numbers. What is the difference between telling the wildlings there are 700 vs 1000 crows at the wall, compared to the horde of wildlings? Virtually none. Do you really think Jon, while being interrogated, did some quick mental math, considered the recent casualties, and added a negligible amount of crows (relative to the wildling numbers) to his resultant number after telling the complete truth right before that? For what? Jon told the truth, according to Jon. It's hardly an argument. It is actually important. Remember that Jon, the warg guy and the rest are a commando force that is supposed to climb the wall. We can't really see how many they are, but it will be a significant difference if that commando group has a 1000 men including rangers against them vs a few hundred cooks, stuarts, and masons with pretty much no fighting men left.
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On April 30 2013 18:36 Zandar wrote:Show nested quote +On April 30 2013 18:22 Too_MuchZerg wrote:Actually admins should just close this thread and leave spoiler thread open. I love discussing here but I feel that I get spoilered here so much (then again I dont always know when but when admin bans then I remember text what was written there)  So just closing would IMO best option, saves admin time and less moderating for other thread. This would help viewers (like me) who hasn't read books to less possibilities to get spoilered. But people who watch only the show like to have a place where they can discuss it too. One of the great parts of a new episode is coming here afterwards and read about stuff that others saw that you didn't and rewatch it. For example I would never have known we saw Beric Dondarrion before or could at least make a little sense of the whole Theon situation without this thread. Also, reading here makes you feel like you are not watching the show alone. And it gives a lot of extra background and thoughts. According to Bronn, it enhances it really
Oh, "enhances", fancy word for a videogame nerd. ;-)
You're right, it was implied that we saw Beric before, but I couldn't remember when and where. And I totally cannot make sense of the Theon situation, but I expect it will be clarified at some point in this season. Or should we know from the show (!) already who those guys are?
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On April 30 2013 20:55 FrogOfWar wrote:Show nested quote +On April 30 2013 18:36 Zandar wrote:On April 30 2013 18:22 Too_MuchZerg wrote:Actually admins should just close this thread and leave spoiler thread open. I love discussing here but I feel that I get spoilered here so much (then again I dont always know when but when admin bans then I remember text what was written there)  So just closing would IMO best option, saves admin time and less moderating for other thread. This would help viewers (like me) who hasn't read books to less possibilities to get spoilered. But people who watch only the show like to have a place where they can discuss it too. One of the great parts of a new episode is coming here afterwards and read about stuff that others saw that you didn't and rewatch it. For example I would never have known we saw Beric Dondarrion before or could at least make a little sense of the whole Theon situation without this thread. Also, reading here makes you feel like you are not watching the show alone. And it gives a lot of extra background and thoughts. According to Bronn, it enhances it really Oh, "enhances", fancy word for a videogame nerd. ;-) You're right, it was implied that we saw Beric before, but I couldn't remember when and where. And I totally cannot make sense of the Theon situation, but I expect it will be clarified at some point in this season. Or should we know from the show (!) already who those guys are? No.
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That little bit of dialogue between Cercei and Littlefinger cracks me up
"And your best will be better than when i asked you to locate Arya Stark"
"I assure you it will" *cheesy grin*
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@zatic @-Archangel-
No.
You are missing the point entirely. Jon was suspected of lying only after he mentioned the number, not any time before. The number was too low for wildlings to believe. Jon simply rounded the number of crows on the wall, the actual number, down to the single digit, was completely and utterly irrelevant. Hell, why not say they have 10,000 men there? Would he still have lied if he said there were 850 men? Maybe he forgot Billy the cook; what a liar Jon is.
It's as if you honestly think they are going to storm the castle with their little team, yet you, indeed, recognize the fact that they are a "commando" force. It is precisely why they are a infiltration team why the overall number does not matter (especially 1000 vs 700). They will hide out, and later on slit a few throats. Do you think the entire population of the castle is going patrol the streets?
Jon did not consciously lie. It's as simple as that.
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Zurich15355 Posts
I still don't get what you are trying to say. A few hundred non-fighting men vs 1000 including rangers is not "rounding up". As far as we can tell he is deliberately misguiding them about the garrison of Castle Black. If you can't see that then we'll just have to disagree and see what happens.
Other than that I see it that they are suspicious because they expected less men at Castle Black, you think they expected more.
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On April 30 2013 21:34 zatic wrote: If you can't see that then we'll just have to disagree and see what happens.
Well it's not something to be "seen" since there's no accurate fact about it, people just give their opinions based on forecasting and foreshadowing stuff ... As far as I'm concerned, there aren't more than 500 men in castle black considering they have 3 castles with men, about 1000 total, and 300 of them are not here (some are dead and others were fighting each others at Craster's).
On April 30 2013 21:34 zatic wrote: Other than that I see it that they are suspicious because they expected less men at Castle Black, you think they expected more.
Agreed. I think they don't expect more than 300 men to be at Castle Black.
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Again, it's as if you think they are going to show up and knock on the front door, and not sneak in. The number of people patrolling isn't going to change much relative to the amount of people sleeping in their dorms. The actual number will not, in any way, make a difference to an infiltration unit.
Also, if you think the number of men sleeping actually matters to the people that are actually sneaking in, it makes no sense for you to think the wildlings are expecting Castle Black to be near deserted. Hell, why not lie the other way? The have 350 men at Castle Black - surprise them.
You are making no sense.
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On April 30 2013 21:34 zatic wrote: I still don't get what you are trying to say. A few hundred non-fighting men vs 1000 including rangers is not "rounding up". As far as we can tell he is deliberately misguiding them about the garrison of Castle Black. If you can't see that then we'll just have to disagree and see what happens.
Other than that I see it that they are suspicious because they expected less men at Castle Black, you think they expected more.
the rangers are dead. even if there were 3000 cooks it wouldnt matter. they arent battle hardened mother fuckers. luckily for them they got a big chunk of ice to hide behind.
whenever Mance Rayder goes balls to the walls he'll waste them. When people are cornered they can be very dangerous. Especially when they are cornered by ice zombie-vampires.
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Zurich15355 Posts
On April 30 2013 21:49 Hier wrote: Again, it's as if you think they are going to show up and knock on the front door, and not sneak in. The number of people patrolling isn't going to change much relative to the amount of people sleeping in their dorms. The actual number will not, in any way, make a difference to an infiltration unit.
Also, if you think the number of men sleeping actually matters to the people that are actually sneaking in, it makes no sense for you to think the wildlings are expecting Castle Black to be near deserted. Hell, why not lie the other way? The have 350 men at Castle Black - surprise them.
You are making no sense. OK so in your opinion as long as call yourself commando unit it is virtually irrelevant what you want to infiltrate and how heavily it is going to be guarded. Hard to argue with that.
I maintain the Wildlings expected a very lightly manned Castle Black, and are suspicious of Jon because of his claim that there are a 1000 men still there.
I can't speak as to why Jon gave them a number too high. That is still unclear to me too.
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I think Snow's just trying to protect his friends and hopes the Wildlings will pick an easier route.
On April 30 2013 21:28 Hier wrote: Jon did not consciously lie. It's as simple as that.
I have no clue how you could misinterpret it that badly. He's clearly lying, the numbers aren't even close.
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Number of people in Castle Black does not directly correlate to the number of people actively walking around night and day, and looking for people trying to sneak in. I don't think you understand this part.
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I hope this is not a spoiler or spoiler bait. I have been watching the "History and Lore" videos on youtube, which are narrated by the actors, so I don't think they spoil anything.
What i don't understand is, what happened to the dragons between Agon the conqueror, and the rebellion against Aerys?
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Zurich15355 Posts
On April 30 2013 22:02 Hier wrote: Number of people in Castle Black does not directly correlate to the number of people actively walking around night and day, and looking for people trying to sneak in. I don't think you understand this part. I disagree, I think it makes a difference, and that more rangers means more patrols. Not to mention that a cook or stable boy patrolling will probably not see anything anyway vs a ranger whose job it is to spot Wildlings.
That is only if their infiltration is completely silent. What if shit goes wrong and they are detected? Won't you agree it at least matters THEN if there are a 1000 rangers or a few hundred stable boys?
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On April 30 2013 22:02 Hier wrote: Number of people in Castle Black does not directly correlate to the number of people actively walking around night and day, and looking for people trying to sneak in. I don't think you understand this part.
Actually it does. The wall was critically undermanned even when the full strength of the Night's Watch was south of it, that's just the nature of the size of the structure and how weak the watch has become. So by sending all the rangers north with Mormont, it falls to less men to patrol the same length of wall and guard the same number of castles. But in reality, there's no possible way they can patrol the same routes, so there will be unguarded sections of the wall, even close to the strongholds like Castle Black.
Even if they did take the Watch by surprise, and they certainly are planning to, the difference between attacking 1000 and sub-500 men at Castle Black is a significant one. Jon is lying because he is hoping that it will change their mind about striking right at Castle Black. If he lied the other way, and told them there were less men, they would attack for sure and still win...there would be no "surprise" for the Wildlings except that it was easier than they expected. Telling the lie that he did puts a bit of unease into the squad.
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On April 30 2013 22:02 Hier wrote: Number of people in Castle Black does not directly correlate to the number of people actively walking around night and day, and looking for people trying to sneak in. I don't think you understand this part. 'How many men in Castle Black?' Men implies rangers/combatants. Even if you watch the acting Jon looks uncharacteristically nervous, even looking down to avoid eye contact as he says it.
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On April 30 2013 22:04 Mambo wrote: I hope this is not a spoiler or spoiler bait. I have been watching the "History and Lore" videos on youtube, which are narrated by the actors, so I don't think they spoil anything.
What i don't understand is, what happened to the dragons between Agon the conqueror, and the rebellion against Aerys?
They died. Vyseris told it in the bathtub with the whore from Lys. The strongest dragons they had were from the time of the invasion. The most recent dragons, and the last they were able to breed, where not bigger then dogs.
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On April 30 2013 22:04 Mambo wrote: I hope this is not a spoiler or spoiler bait. I have been watching the "History and Lore" videos on youtube, which are narrated by the actors, so I don't think they spoil anything.
What i don't understand is, what happened to the dragons between Agon the conqueror, and the rebellion against Aerys?
simply died of old age...dragons live longer but they're not immortal
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