EPTVenezuela political situation/humanitarian Crisis - Page 4
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JimmiC
Canada22817 Posts
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GreenHorizons
United States22696 Posts
On January 31 2019 03:12 JimmiC wrote: Stop this circle pls. at least take it to PMs. Yes he could, he would just have to release those he jailed. Allow equal time (hell any time) on the state owned media. Not use violence or food threats and so on. Will he? I doubt it, since he could have before and didn't. But it is possible. Any response you have, especially if it likely something we have gone over 15 times please send to my inbox or put it on your blog. You are making this all about you, which isn't it's point. It's not about me or you. It's about the people of Venezuela. and as I added too late. Accepting your argument about sanctions, the US is certainly trying to finish off the Venezuelan economy now. The measure blocks about $7 billion in assets and would result in more than $11 billion in lost assets over the next year, Bolton said. So if Maduro doesn't do what you, or more importantly, the US/international allies demand, what comes next in your view? | ||
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RvB
Netherlands6191 Posts
On January 31 2019 02:45 GreenHorizons wrote: That talks can't work and will be used to divide opposition is an argument. The question remains, where are those voices? Because the Venezuelan people overwhelmingly want more (even if claimed fruitless) talks over the alternative. Neither of those sources back your claims. Venezuelans can be against foreign intervention and want Maduro to step down. Nevermind the fact that the first source seems to be highly questionable. | ||
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GreenHorizons
United States22696 Posts
On January 31 2019 03:22 RvB wrote: Neither of those sources back your claims. Venezuelans can be against foreign intervention and want Maduro to step down. Nevermind the fact that the first source seems to be highly questionable. Yes they do. I'm open to challenges or alternatives to the source. If 84% of the population supported the coup instead of talks I'm pretty sure it would have succeeded by now. Perhaps you think this man was making up the opposition to Maduro that doesn't support a coup, but that's a bold claim. | ||
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JimmiC
Canada22817 Posts
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JimmiC
Canada22817 Posts
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GreenHorizons
United States22696 Posts
On January 31 2019 04:48 JimmiC wrote: I think you provide mass aid for all the refugee's that are leaving, sanction as much as you can the luxury items and make it as uncomfortable as possible for Maduro and his allies. Supply food (not money for food because it will be embezzled) directly to the poor and starving with clear messaging on the food that it is from the international community and not Maduro. And then you hope that the pressure is enough so that at least by next election he is forced to have a real one. There are no good options or unseat a dictator. Military invasions almost always, end up worse for the people as the power vacuum is created and often worse people step in.Not to mention all the horrors of war. This is why I'm very hopeful of a peaceful solution. I can finally agree with almost all of that as being in the interest of the Venezuelan people and reflective of what they want as I understand it. Couple things: And then you hope that the pressure is enough so that at least by next election he is forced to have a real one. What does "pressure" mean to you in this context. Like the looming threat of "all options" from the US/acting on moving troops to Columbia or pressure for ALL sides of the opposition and Maduro to have internationally moderated talks without stepping down as the UN Political Chief has said? Also when are you expecting the election you're referencing in that snippet? This is why I'm very hopeful of a peaceful solution. Then you have to oppose US intervention and recognize the problem the that the Guaido faction opposition (with US support) refusing to talk or participate in elections poses to that outcome. On January 31 2019 04:54 JimmiC wrote: Also I'm not sure how you are making the leap from 86% of people don't support military intervention to they some how support Maduro. I would say the last fair elections are a much better indication of that. If you have a reasonable source on source on the % supporting Maduro though that would be actual relevant to the case you are trying to make. With all due respect, that's not what my post says. | ||
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JimmiC
Canada22817 Posts
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JimmiC
Canada22817 Posts
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GreenHorizons
United States22696 Posts
On January 31 2019 05:18 JimmiC wrote: Pressure would be sanctions, not great but not a lot of options out there that I know of. As well as trying to restrict luxuries that are sold to and present in Venezuela. Independent investigations into the elections, alleged fraud, crimes by the opposition and Maduro is a big one. Sanctions almost always punish the people they are supposed to help so I disagree with ones that are illegal under international law and/or aren't for example targeting luxury goods like you said. I've debunked your not participate 50 times. I disagree it's been "debunked" you have offered Guaido's/US's/international allies (to some extent) explanation for why he has refused the talks called for by the UN official though. To your last post, if you don't think the people support Madruo why are you fighting against fair and free elections? I'm not. On January 31 2019 05:21 JimmiC wrote: If the US supported a regime change in SA the same way they are here, a guy said he had claim to the throne, was going to hold elections and instate a constitution. And the whole world reacted exactly the same, same countries picking the same sides. What would you be saying? I've already said I oppose US regime change everywhere including SA. | ||
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JimmiC
Canada22817 Posts
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GreenHorizons
United States22696 Posts
On January 31 2019 05:36 JimmiC wrote: Does the US supporting it make it a US regime change? Yes. If you prefer I can restate it as I've already said I oppose US (supported) regime change everywhere including SA | ||
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JimmiC
Canada22817 Posts
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GreenHorizons
United States22696 Posts
On January 31 2019 05:54 JimmiC wrote: Odd, I give my support based on the situation, not opposite of what the US does. I think this is a huge difference between us. But at least now I understand your logic. Here is a couple of stories of intrigue about what is going on. One is a mystery passenger jet from Russia and one is 20 tons of Gold to be shipped... somewhere. Nothing confirmed at this point just assumptions. https://globalnews.ca/news/4905021/russian-plane-venezuela/ https://nationalpost.com/news/world/venezuela-has-20-tons-of-gold-ready-to-ship-address-unknown I support peoples right to self-determination, not US supported regime change. There's an important difference. The logic you're using being pretty hegemonic even among liberals and progressives is why there's very little vocal opposition to most US regime changes and almost none in western media right now. Iraq, Libya and Syria are just a few of the recent ones that are still a mess and could get much worse at any moment. Well I don't know how much worse Libya can get or at least don't like to think about it. Reuters reported last week that private military contractors who carry out secret missions for Russia had flown into Venezuela to beef up Maduro’s security in the face of mass opposition protests last week, according to people close to them. seems like the most likely explanation. But Maduro disappearing on a plane full of gold would actually be a pretty good resolution all things considered (provided this new guy isn't a puppet and holds real elections). | ||
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JimmiC
Canada22817 Posts
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GreenHorizons
United States22696 Posts
On January 31 2019 06:16 JimmiC wrote: With everything on the table I agree with you. As much as it would suck to have even more weath stolen from teh people compared to the costs of some of the other options this wouldn't be the worst. I think it is likely payment for loans, arms or additional security. I also differ from you because I don't believe that US supporting it means they are behind it or in control of it. I also would not pick the US as the country or body to make sure that the elections, if they happen, are fair. I don't equate US support to control. US support usually just means it's not in the best interest of the people as a starting point based off our track record post WWII particularly. Then I would look at the president, Trump in this case, and my skepticism grows, then check on the US point person well now we're leaving skepticism and entering deep concern, then wonder what option's are on the table , and my concern deepens and so on. As I pointed out I've followed (at least somewhat) the recent three I mentioned and yeah I did indeed conclude (as well as everything else I've shown) that my suspicions we're correct. Now if in Saudi Arabia all the things I've mentioned before this post and in this one are the same, of course I oppose it. But if by some miracle a regime change doesn't line up so well with so many that we've screwed up before, the US isn't the main thrust for the immediate calls for recognition of the coup, and so on MAYBE I'd look further into if this was the first regime change I could support, but I think it's foolish to take that position on blind-faith and despite all the available information on the circumstances. I agree elections determined to be fair by the US are as worthless as you think Maduro's so it has to be countries like Mexico, Uruguay, and so forth the Carter group would probably be acceptable from all parties as a US rep. I'd be interested in the literal odds based on documented US supported regime changes the statistical likelihood of marginalized people being better off vs a new terrible administration that is just more US friendly if anyone is interested in putting it together? I feel like thinking this attempt at regime change ends positively for poor/marginalized Venezuelans has got to be at least 15:1 maybe I'm wrong though I'm presuming there's at least a few that people would argue went well for US intentions AND marginalized people besides WW2 (if they count that)? ________________________________________________________________________________ Just generally to anyone: Don't you find it at least a little odd, that with western media being wall to wall anything Trump does wrong, they haven't even really probed if that could be happening here? | ||
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JimmiC
Canada22817 Posts
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GreenHorizons
United States22696 Posts
On January 31 2019 07:16 JimmiC wrote: I see this, at least so far, as not a US controlled regime change. And I would not want them to play a large roll, not only because I don't think they are the best, but also because of how bad it would look and how internally and internationally it likely wouldn't be considered legitimate no matter the result. I would be fine with a coalition of Latin American countries making sure it is fair. Basically anyone that both sides can consider fair. Just to be clear, in order for that to happen the options are Guaido must stop refusing to talk, the US must invade, or Maduro must step down. I know you want the third one but all signs point to that not happening without first talking, invading, or the US keeps the oil sanctions up and crushes the economy. This last one is most likely to lead complete chaos and the worse of bad options for the people of Venezuela. | ||
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JimmiC
Canada22817 Posts
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GreenHorizons
United States22696 Posts
On January 31 2019 07:43 JimmiC wrote: I think the economy is already crushed due to the corruption. It really can't get worse for the people I'm not even sure that the oil sanctions will change much other than the corrupt people will have less to steal. It can get much worse. Otherwise they wouldn't piss off refiners in the US to do it. It would essentially be Trump sanctioning the US (and whoever you think pockets the oil revenue for what ever percentage China and Russia squeeze out) as you describe it. I think If Maduro put elections on the table Guaido would have to talk or he would lose his credibility. With Russia and China backing Maduro though I don't see him doing anything other than making slightly less because he will have to refine his oil somewhere else. And the Chinese and Russia squeezing him on price since the other nations won't buy it. Time will tell. Hopefully enough protests happen, or enough of the military guys low on the totem pole say enough is enough that the others back down because they know it is a loss. So since were down to hoping for the population and generals/military guys to turn (I suspect there will be few if any more than we've already seen), how long are we willing to let the Venezuelan people starve before we feed them and accept less than ideal conditions for talks to begin/resume? | ||
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