Venezuela political situation/humanitarian Crisis

On January 29 2019 11:50 JimmiC wrote:



Yes there has been various talks about how to remove Maduro since he moved his country away from democracy and into a humanitarian crisis. I'm glad that they went with a possibly legal way (depending on your take on those elections), rather than a military coup or a invasion. Both of which Trump at one time or another said was on the table.

I think it would be pretty standard for a guy to find out who would support him before he made such a bold move. I'm sure he quietly tried to ask around Venezuela as much as he could with out being arrested, tortured or murdered.

It is not like trying to over throw or even question Maduro is a safe thing to do.

https://www.local10.com/espanol/noticias/venezuela/activist-falls-to-his-death-from-police-agency-building-in-venezuela

On January 29 2019 12:57 JimmiC wrote:
My position is not the US's nor do I think the US controls the world. I also would be very supportive of a person who had some claim to SA leadership and claimed to be ready to hold fair elections, instate a constitution and a functiong fair court system. Would you not?

Just because you cant make it better everywhere doesnt mean you shouldnt make it better somewhere.

On January 30 2019 00:21 JimmiC wrote:
Guaido is still willing to give amnesty to Maduro and the military. I think this is important because one of the reasons Maduro might not be willing to step down is he won't want to answer for his crimes. It may suck for the people, but if it helps enact the change I would think it is worth it. I would hope any deal though would not allow the people to keep the proceeds of their crimes, because we are talking about Billions upon Billions that have been embezzled from the people.

https://www.cnn.com/2019/01/29/americas/venezuela-juan-guaido-intl/index.html


The point above about the corruption in the military I agree with, but the source of that corruption is the power that was given to it from Chavez and Maduro. This is also why the top brass in the Military still support him. Who wouldn't want to go from being a member of the military and then be given presidency of an oil company?

This is a pretty dynamite article and worth a read.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-47036129

On January 30 2019 01:02 JimmiC wrote:
According to everything I read Chavez who knew most the military leaders personally got rid of everyone who was a fascist and kept all those that were left leaning. It is getting to the point where you are getting near the horseshoe look of the political spectrum or the clock where super far left and right are almost the same.

I don't think any system that relies on keeping people loyal through encouraging corruption is a good one. And I think in the end it hurts the poor people the most. The leadership needs to root out corruption and put in place, than keep in place those checks and balances. Yes it is hard and takes time but it should be the goal.

It appears that all your arguments sort of end up with "but the US is worse". I'm not looking to argue that. I'm looking to what do the people of Venezuela want and what ends up making it best for the most people. Right now to be that is clearly Guaido and I think that is becoming clear to most people.

. Right now to be that is clearly Guaido and I think that is becoming clear to most people.

It is also interesting you bring up leader who trump likes. Because basically all of those strongmen dictators you talk about that Trump likes, they support Maduro not Guairdo or elections!

On January 30 2019 04:37 JimmiC wrote:
Here is an update on what is going on, along with an updated map on what countries support who (or elections)

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-47040902

On January 30 2019 08:09 JimmiC wrote:
I assumed you meant Erdogan and Putin, since he loves those two.

On January 30 2019 08:56 JimmiC wrote:
Goto be specific with Trump he seems to pretty much love every dictator other than Maduro lol.

The first UN rapporteur to visit Venezuela for 21 years has told The Independent the US sanctions on the country are illegal and could amount to “crimes against humanity” under international law.

Former special rapporteur Alfred de Zayas, who finished his term at the UN in March, has criticized the US for engaging in “economic warfare” against Venezuela which he said is hurting the economy and killing Venezuelans.

Mr De Zayas, a former secretary of the UN Human Rights Council (HRC) and an expert in international law, spoke to The Independent following the presentation of his Venezuela report to the HRC in September. He said that since its presentation the report has been ignored by the UN and has not sparked the public debate he believes it deserves.

“Sanctions kill,” he told The Independent, adding that they fall most heavily on the poorest people in society, demonstrably cause death through food and medicine shortages, lead to violations of human rights and are aimed at coercing economic change in a “sister democracy”.

On his fact-finding mission to the country in late 2017, he found internal overdependence on oil, poor governance and corruption had hit the Venezuelan economy hard, but said “economic warfare” practised by the US, EU and Canada are significant factors in the economic crisis.

In the report, Mr de Zayas recommended, among other actions, that the International Criminal Court investigate economic sanctions against Venezuela as possible crimes against humanity under Article 7 of the Rome Statute.

The US sanctions are illegal under international law because they were not endorsed by the UN Security Council, Mr de Zayas, an expert on international law and a former senior lawyer with the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights, said.

“Modern-day economic sanctions and blockades are comparable with medieval sieges of towns.

“Twenty-first century sanctions attempt to bring not just a town, but sovereign countries to their knees,” Mr de Zayas said in his report.

The US Treasury has not responded to a request for comment on Mr de Zayas’s allegations of the effects of the sanctions programme.

On January 30 2019 10:28 JimmiC wrote:


I would think because it is a huge humanitarian crisis pretty close to the borders creating instability and millions of refugee's. And there is legit chances of overthrowing him right now.

On January 30 2019 10:54 JimmiC wrote:



That is a interesting read I'm still looking for more info on what the sanctions actually were. Because even in the article I only find that it was not selling them arms (which hurts the US since they simply just bought from Russia) and then not being able to buy and sell debt from Their national Oil company (which is also counter to the point that they are trying to steal the oil. Since china and Russian bought that debt and now control the oil fields).

I also thought this was a pretty big quote from the article you left out.
.



And this statement makes me wonder how much about the situation he understands since until last week the US had never sanctioned their natural resources



Perhaps this quote is more accurate than you would like it to be

On January 30 2019 11:00 JimmiC wrote:


I think Trump cares only about the US and you seem to have only read part of my sentence. I clearly said it was because it close to the boarders creating instability there and millions of refugee's. If you haven't noticed he's not a big fan of those or people making caravans to the boarder. I also pointed out that this has a legitimate chance of working, is there such a option in SA? I don't think so because even with their level of corruption they have managed not to squander the wealth from a smaller oil supply (isn't that bonkers how rich and powerful the Saudi's are based only on Oil and Venezuela has more and is in such a mess?)

What I find very odd is how obsessed you are with what Trump or members of the US think in general. I think what is going on in SA is disgusting and am glad my government has started to take a stand against it. I also personally think it is horrible and disgusting and hope those people lose power. Much like I feel like Madruo.

You on the other hand are some how completely OK with everything awful Maduro has done to his people because it is in the name of socialism, because other people are doing worse things? It's the same argument that kids make over and over "but Johnny did it even worse" "But little billy, were not talking about Johnny right now we are talking about you. And what you did is wrong".

On January 30 2019 11:44 JimmiC wrote:


I would be completely behind that. And that seems to be exactly what is on the table.

On January 30 2019 11:52 JimmiC wrote:


How exactly could they be achieved Diplomatically?

On January 30 2019 11:55 JimmiC wrote:


Did you skip a ton of reading on what the EU proposed? That was the whole 8 days to set a date for an election thing. Now would the US agree, who knows, and who cares since Maduro will not agree.

My guess is it is because he knows he will lose badly. Otherwise he should agree and then the US would have no choice because their whole argument (as unjust as you think it is) would evaporate.

On January 30 2019 12:31 JimmiC wrote:


Are you under the impression that when the US names him that it is so? Because if that was the case Maduro would just be gone, hell Chavez would have been gone when things were going well and his brand of socialism was a threat and not an epic failure.

Or do you really think Madruo says "yes EU and other nations I will hold elections and will call them right now". The US would go "fuck you world its Guaido or bust and now were invading, despite this guy doing what Guaido says he is going to do to bring back legitimacy."

I mean the US would look even worse and they actually might get world wide resistance or be sanctioned themselves. No way they would do it

On January 30 2019 13:37 JimmiC wrote:
Also please dont make up that it is anyone but Maduro stopping fair and free elections, that olive branch was publicly offered and rejected.

Also, I find your opinion that keeping the military officials him and chavez selected and groomed corrupt and stealing billions from the people (probably more then the profit a private company would take) is somehow justifiable because otherwise the US would buy them off distasteful, completely not socialist and logically incongruent.

On January 30 2019 14:15 JimmiC wrote:


None of that video is related to you acting as though maduro didnt reject the call for elections.

And that tgis guys believes that maduro is the rightful president in spite of the unfair elections. Others believe different.

And you are still dodging my point that if maduro could win so easy why wouldnt he just do it and shut the world up?

Also please stop posting opinion videos of people who agree with your opinion. Would it change your mind if I posted an opinion video of someone who disagrees? And posting the same video again is also pointless.

On January 30 2019 23:22 JimmiC wrote:



We were talking about an election not a plebiscite on military intervention. You seem to think I'm pro Guiodro because of his affiliation with anyone. I'm not pro him for any reason other than he claims he will hold elections and restore the constitution and the courts. Then the people can make their choices,

You are so invested in making this all about the US because of your hatred for them is both counter productive and tiring.

On January 31 2019 00:29 JimmiC wrote:
The irony of your post is stunning. If you go back to the OP I posted lots of info against it. I even used many of your articles. Until you source some of your bold claims like US sanctions crippled the economy. With actual info about the sanctions (which I have provided you over and over and wouldn't cripple an economy). You can just stay away, you have your own blog where you can spread your theories and treat them as fact. I've been very patient and asked multiple times for specific sources about specific things. That an opposition party is for Maduro doesn't matter, if you have noticed most opposition parties just pick the opposite position. And it is more opinion base stuff, which has a place of course just stop treating opinions that agree with you as fact.

This Blog was not meant for it to be about you. And to have you hijack it to insult me. I'm trying to post both sides and I have made it clear that I believe it is best for Venezuela to hold elections. If you have problems with this statement or the one above. And problems providing sources to your opinions you hold as facts please just post else where. Thank you.

Now on too what is going on. In great news Maduro has offered to negotiate with the opposition. Who knows if this is in good faith or if the opposition will accept but it is the first positive thing I have read in some time.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/venezuela-s-maduro-offers-to-negotiate-with-opposition-1.4998318

Here is an opinion piece from the NPR that it wasn't external forces that caused it.

https://www.npr.org/2019/01/30/689286896/opinion-foreign-forces-did-not-start-venezuelas-transition-venezuela-did

“They intend to put a puppet government in Venezuela, destroy the state and take colonial control of the country.”

But he added that he was still willing to talk with the opposition even if he “had to go naked.”

On January 31 2019 01:07 JimmiC wrote:
I can find them, I have found them and discussed them.

Great, I hope he is actually willing to discuss having actual elections, releasing the political prisoners, ending the mass corruption he managed.

On January 31 2019 01:33 JimmiC wrote:
Yes, I have been scroll up and check back on the Pm''s before. They were related to the purchasing of Debt and to the sale of arms.

"We will continue denouncing US lies, and I will continue to encourage national dialogue because I am up for a dialogue with all the political opposition, with the opposition media," he said. "I think dialogue should prevail. I believe in dialogue."

On January 31 2019 02:19 JimmiC wrote:
You seem to be missing my point about talking and meaningful talking. Everything that the world and Venezuelans have asked for is on the table and easy for Maduro to do. But he won't so what is it that he wants to discuss? He already said he will not hold elections, or release political prisoners. As I mentioned, North Korea will always talk. And yes I don't nail every piece of information every time about who says what.

And you keep ignoring the fact that they did have a still biased for Maduro but not as bad election (he hadn't locked up the leadership yet) and he lost 70% of the riding's.

This is going to be the last time I ask you politely to stop treating your assumptions like facts and treating this blog like it's yours. This is meant to be a discussion and information about what is happening in Venezuela not GH strokes his ego while being a dick to Jim because he won't agree with his conspiracy theory that it is all because of the US.

On January 31 2019 02:41 RvB wrote:

Not sure if it matters. There have already been talks with the Vatican involved. In the end Maduro used the talks to buy time and divide the opposition. I doubt anything will be different this time.

On January 31 2019 03:00 JimmiC wrote:
You seem to THINK the only alternative is military invasion. It is not that is your bias and assumptions talking while you ignore or create major facts to fit your narrative. He could call elections like the rest of the world has asked is an option. He could release the political prisoners, both the leadership of the opposition or all the protesters (sadly he can't unkill the opposition and protesters he has but it is what it is) as an act of good faith to lead to discussions.

Making it seem like having bad faith discussions or war are the only two options only fits your narrative and does not fit with reality.

This you last warning, move on or move off. Thanks.

The measure blocks about $7 billion in assets and would result in more than $11 billion in lost assets over the next year, Bolton said.

On January 31 2019 03:12 JimmiC wrote:



Stop this circle pls. at least take it to PMs. Yes he could, he would just have to release those he jailed. Allow equal time (hell any time) on the state owned media. Not use violence or food threats and so on. Will he? I doubt it, since he could have before and didn't. But it is possible. Any response you have, especially if it likely something we have gone over 15 times please send to my inbox or put it on your blog. You are making this all about you, which isn't it's point.

The measure blocks about $7 billion in assets and would result in more than $11 billion in lost assets over the next year, Bolton said.

On January 31 2019 03:22 RvB wrote:

Neither of those sources back your claims. Venezuelans can be against foreign intervention and want Maduro to step down. Nevermind the fact that the first source seems to be highly questionable.

On January 31 2019 04:48 JimmiC wrote:


I think you provide mass aid for all the refugee's that are leaving, sanction as much as you can the luxury items and make it as uncomfortable as possible for Maduro and his allies. Supply food (not money for food because it will be embezzled) directly to the poor and starving with clear messaging on the food that it is from the international community and not Maduro. And then you hope that the pressure is enough so that at least by next election he is forced to have a real one.

There are no good options or unseat a dictator. Military invasions almost always, end up worse for the people as the power vacuum is created and often worse people step in.Not to mention all the horrors of war. This is why I'm very hopeful of a peaceful solution.

And then you hope that the pressure is enough so that at least by next election he is forced to have a real one.

This is why I'm very hopeful of a peaceful solution.

On January 31 2019 04:54 JimmiC wrote:


Also I'm not sure how you are making the leap from 86% of people don't support military intervention to they some how support Maduro. I would say the last fair elections are a much better indication of that. If you have a reasonable source on source on the % supporting Maduro though that would be actual relevant to the case you are trying to make.

On January 31 2019 05:18 JimmiC wrote:
Pressure would be sanctions, not great but not a lot of options out there that I know of. As well as trying to restrict luxuries that are sold to and present in Venezuela.

I've debunked your not participate 50 times.

To your last post, if you don't think the people support Madruo why are you fighting against fair and free elections?

On January 31 2019 05:21 JimmiC wrote:
If the US supported a regime change in SA the same way they are here, a guy said he had claim to the throne, was going to hold elections and instate a constitution. And the whole world reacted exactly the same, same countries picking the same sides.

What would you be saying?

On January 31 2019 05:36 JimmiC wrote:
Does the US supporting it make it a US regime change?

On January 31 2019 05:54 JimmiC wrote:
Odd, I give my support based on the situation, not opposite of what the US does. I think this is a huge difference between us. But at least now I understand your logic.

Here is a couple of stories of intrigue about what is going on. One is a mystery passenger jet from Russia and one is 20 tons of Gold to be shipped... somewhere. Nothing confirmed at this point just assumptions.

https://globalnews.ca/news/4905021/russian-plane-venezuela/

https://nationalpost.com/news/world/venezuela-has-20-tons-of-gold-ready-to-ship-address-unknown

Reuters reported last week that private military contractors who carry out secret missions for Russia had flown into Venezuela to beef up Maduro’s security in the face of mass opposition protests last week, according to people close to them.

On January 31 2019 06:16 JimmiC wrote:
With everything on the table I agree with you. As much as it would suck to have even more weath stolen from teh people compared to the costs of some of the other options this wouldn't be the worst. I think it is likely payment for loans, arms or additional security.

I also differ from you because I don't believe that US supporting it means they are behind it or in control of it. I also would not pick the US as the country or body to make sure that the elections, if they happen, are fair.

On January 31 2019 07:16 JimmiC wrote:
I see this, at least so far, as not a US controlled regime change. And I would not want them to play a large roll, not only because I don't think they are the best, but also because of how bad it would look and how internally and internationally it likely wouldn't be considered legitimate no matter the result.

I would be fine with a coalition of Latin American countries making sure it is fair. Basically anyone that both sides can consider fair.

On January 31 2019 07:43 JimmiC wrote:
I think the economy is already crushed due to the corruption. It really can't get worse for the people I'm not even sure that the oil sanctions will change much other than the corrupt people will have less to steal.

I think If Maduro put elections on the table Guaido would have to talk or he would lose his credibility. With Russia and China backing Maduro though I don't see him doing anything other than making slightly less because he will have to refine his oil somewhere else. And the Chinese and Russia squeezing him on price since the other nations won't buy it.

Time will tell. Hopefully enough protests happen, or enough of the military guys low on the totem pole say enough is enough that the others back down because they know it is a loss.

On January 31 2019 13:05 JimmiC wrote:
Earlier I suggested we feed the people and the refugees. Perhaps use the gold in the bank of england if needed. Just make sure to deliver it to the people so corruption doesnt steal and sell it elsewhere as well.

Considering how weak the sanctions were and hope little the people had to eat who knows how much this will even change things.

On January 31 2019 14:48 RvB wrote:
You do realise Maduro has repeatedly refused international aid right? I doubt he's going to accept it now.

On February 01 2019 01:07 JimmiC wrote:



Also there was 1 million people at the anti government protests on the 23rd and apparently bigger numbers are expected for protests on Feb 2nd. Hoepfully this pressure along with the international community can force a change. Civil war or invasion, IMO, will do way more harm than good.

Maduro is also having his intelligence officers arrest foreign reporters attempting to report on the protests.

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2019/01/venezuela-detains-foreign-journalists-crackdown-protests-190131073859425.html

On February 01 2019 03:29 JimmiC wrote:
I think no one wants another Libya and there are some pretty clear and stark differences between the two situations. So count me the group that will act surprised if it ends up the same.

On February 01 2019 03:52 JimmiC wrote:
Eastern Europe. Hungry, East Germany, Poland so on.

When the Polish government launched martial law in December 1981, however, Solidarity was not alerted. Potential explanations for this vary; some believe that the CIA was caught off guard, while others suggest that American policy-makers viewed an internal crackdown as preferable to an "inevitable Soviet intervention."[188] CIA support for Solidarity included money, equipment and training, which was coordinated by Special Operations.

On February 01 2019 04:15 JimmiC wrote:
Your going down a rabbit hole that is far from the target. But I think that when the wall came down in Germany a lot of those countries and their citizens were a lot better off with their new elected governments and getting away from their dictatorships. As for getting into more detail, not only is not my interest but it is not the purpose of this blog. Feel free to bring that discussion back to yours if you would like.

On February 01 2019 04:33 JimmiC wrote:
Yes it is, about what is happening. What could happen if X Y Z happens while acting like X Y Z are happening but are really assumptions seems like a fools errand to me. So I will stick to what is happening and will remain hopeful because assuming the worst accomplishes nothing. But by all means you have your whole blog to talk about whatever it is that you want so do all your future theorizing and so on there.


Guaido says that his family has been threaten and that the police loyal to Maduro came for his wife in an attempt to intimidate him. Who knows? I think because of how public this is he is fairly safe, but it is also pretty classic strongman tactics.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-47066906


https://thehill.com/policy/international/427885-venezuelas-guaido-says-police-showed-up-at-house-looking-for-his-wife

On February 01 2019 05:05 JimmiC wrote:


I'm not doing any of the planning, neither are you so that is not really relevant in this case.

I hope he is not actually killed that would almost certainly lead to lots more violence whether it is civil war or invasion or both.

What Has Happened in Venezuela Is a Coup. Trump’s Denial Is Dangerous

Juan Guaidó has declared himself president. Now the US and rightwing regimes may seek an excuse to intervene in support.

At the dawn of the 21st century, Hugo Chavez invoked Bolívar’s promise and when the poor, black, Amerindian people of Venezuela returned him to power, time and again, especially after the failed US-backed coup of 2002, he too radicalised his stance against the mighty empire Bolivar had only speculated about, America. Again, the promise was realised only in part. Some might say the revolution has been betrayed or stalled during the rule of his successor Nicolás Maduro. No one can deny Venezuela’s problems. The very source of its magic in the 1970s, oil, has proven its downfall. Chavez did not win his country’s independence from oil and its geopolitics.

Crisis loomed when global prices fell, production stagnated, the value of the currency dropped, and under Maduro, dependence on imports and retail monopolies meant shortages that hurt many. That responsibility lies with the government and the industrialist rightwing opposition. But to think that this opposition, revived by Juan Guaidó’s self-proclamation spectacle, acts out of genuine concern for the poor, black people and Amerindians who empowered themselves during the years of the Bolivarian revolution would be foolish.

Enter Donald Trump: megalomaniac, erratic, liar. Calling out the interventionism of previous US administrations, which had been constant in their hatred for Chavez and their attempts to regain influence in the region, Trump promised to put an end to all such shenanigans. But on Wednesday, vice-president Mike Pence saluted Guaidó’s self-appointment, observing that although Trump disliked intervening elsewhere, he “has always had a very different view of our hemisphere”. That’s an explicit invocation of the Monroe doctrine under which the US has held it as its responsibility to intervene in the Americas, which it sees as its backyard.

Trump swiftly recognised Guaidó as the interim president of Venezuela, and was followed by a cohort of Latin American presidents, all-white, upper-class leaders now spearheading the new reactionary wave in the region: Brazil’s Jair Bolsonaro, Argentina’s Mauricio Macri, Colombia’s Iván Duque and Chile’s Sebastián Piñera. They’ll proclaim themselves saviours of democracy and humanitarianism, the liars. Draping themselves in the robes of the liberators of yesteryear, just as Guaidó draped himself in the image of Chavez and Bolívar while holding a constitution with the latter’s image on its cover, they’ll happily support further US sanctions, paramilitary forces training Venezuela’s opposition in the torture tactics that displaced 7 million people in Colombia, or using “lawfare” in pan-American institutions just as happened to Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Dilma Rousseff in Brazil, Manuel Zelaya in Honduras and Fernando Lugo in Paraguay.

Expect such measures to have limited purchase. Washington knows it. Then, Trump and the others will be ready to go for the more muscular approach. Not by accident, this could also benefit Trump as elections approach or if he is cornered by investigations and impeachment. War distracts and makes money. Only this won’t be a regional plunder: China and Russia, both with key interests in Venezuela and elsewhere in the region, have followed Bolivia, Mexico, Uruguay and Cuba to call Guaidó’s stunt by its real name: a coup. Russia has indicated it would come to the defence of its ally. In Venezuela, many who may be critical of Maduro but fear most the return of the rightwing opposition to power are unlikely to cheer the newly converted humanitarians.

On February 01 2019 05:38 JimmiC wrote:


Of course you think it is the best. It agrees with what you think. This doesn't make it the best.

How many factual reports have you read that have sentences like this? "They’ll proclaim themselves saviours of democracy and humanitarianism, the liars. Draping themselves in the robes of the liberators of yesteryear"
That Maduro government funs the website alone should make it questionable but even reading it it is pretty clear it is not the "best" reporting. It is certainly biased as hell.

Also you version of "planning" is actually worrying which doesn't accomplish anything. If you would like to explain to me what actual planning you are doing that will do something to help the Venezuelan people I'd be interested other

On February 01 2019 05:44 JimmiC wrote:
I also think you need to stop saying that Mexico and Uruguay support the Maduro Government. Both have taken a policy of neutrality and wish for their to be dialogue. And Mexico recently said "for now".

They never say anything along the lines of Maduro being the rightful leader. That list is Turkey, Syria, Russia, China.

There is plenty to criticise Maduro for: late or misguided economic measures, corruption, power-hoarding. But these criticisms cannot disguise a coup or justify an intervention that, if and when it comes, would engulf us all. Trump counts on Colombia’s Iván Duque, Alvaro Uribe’s appointee, and Brazil’s neo-fascists to support this, contributing troops of their own if needed. A neo-fascist runs one of the Americas’ powerhouses in Brazil; a narcissistic liar afraid of being painted into a corner runs the other. That combination is toxic. War in the name of humanity may tempt them, as it did the more liberal leaders of the past. But this time the stakes are higher. Venezuela’s coup is a threat to the entire world.

• Oscar Guardiola-Rivera teaches human rights and philosophy at Birkbeck College, University of London

Also you version of "planning" is actually worrying which doesn't accomplish anything. If you would like to explain to me what actual planning you are doing that will do something to help the Venezuelan people I'd be interested other

On February 01 2019 06:25 JimmiC wrote:
It matters that you call it best because it agrees most with what you think, not because it contains the most information or some other metric.

It is also really funny that you think your perspective is sorely lacking here. It is my blog and I can barely keep up with you!.

On February 01 2019 06:56 JimmiC wrote:
Not only was the source of that questionable. But If someone asked me Do you support a US supported Coup of your government? my answer would be no. If they asked do you support your current leader ? My answer would be no. Do you support new fair elections? Yes

What I'm getting at is there is a thing called loaded questions sometimes it happens accidentally so when you are creating surveys you need to be very careful. But in this case it is clear there was a goal.

Also generally when you do these things you also put out the information about how many people what type of people you talked to and the statistical relevance.


I have posted many more balanced articles than that. You don't actually think it is, do you? Come on man. Perhaps if you had this is opinion that best matches my own it would make more sense and give the reader some context.

On February 01 2019 07:37 JimmiC wrote:



Something like this seems more balanced.

https://www.euronews.com/2019/01/27/is-it-legal-for-juan-guaido-to-be-proclaimed-venezuela-s-interim-president

It remains a mystery to me why you act as though "the west" is hungry for a military coup. From everything I have read they are hungry for elections. Bolton and Trump might be different and likely are but they do not control the opinions of the "the west"

On February 01 2019 08:26 JimmiC wrote:
I think the protests show that they don't support Maduro, especially when they are risking their lives to do so. I also think the 3 million that have left shows they don't support him.
.

On February 01 2019 10:47 JimmiC wrote:
The people protesting are protesting for Guaido

On February 01 2019 11:02 JimmiC wrote:
They are protesting for change and elections.

Do you not think that the protests mean they want Maduro out and new elections? Because I do.

On February 01 2019 11:22 JimmiC wrote:
I do not believe that I believe that they all support change, and are willing for that change to Guaido until the elections are held. At which time they will pick whoever.

On February 01 2019 11:27 JimmiC wrote:
What do you think the protesters are protesting? It is Guaido who is calling for them. I'm asking because I honestly can't guess what you believe.

On February 01 2019 11:41 JimmiC wrote:
So it your position that the some of the people who just happen to be protesting at the exact time Guaido asks for there to be protests, risking their lives, are doing so because they oppose Maduro but they don't want Guaido to be interm until elections can be held.

On February 01 2019 11:45 JimmiC wrote:
So you think they do want Guaido to be the interm until elections can be held?

On February 01 2019 11:54 JimmiC wrote:
So what do you think they want? Please be clear and straight forward.

On February 01 2019 12:01 JimmiC wrote:
That is very specific. I would be completely fine with that if it what they want.

Why do you think they want that?

And do you think there is a chance Maduro would do this, and if ge doesnt what should the rest of the world do?

In general do you agree or disagree with a dialogue being held between the national government and the opposition to resolve the current economic problems in the country?

84% agree

15% disagree

1% not sure

On February 01 2019 12:07 JimmiC wrote:
ROLF! And to think I thought we were getting some where. Maybe even some honesty. Oh well g'night.

On February 01 2019 12:27 JimmiC wrote:
That you think some poll that we have no knowledge of how many or who were polled. And the vague question that in general they agree with discussion means your specific beliefs are some how exactly right and not tge far more likely that they are protesting for governmental change and immidiate elections with Guiodo leading the process is amazing. That logical gymnastics is impressive.

Hinterlaces is led by the independent pollster Oscar Schemel, who has experience studying numerous elections in Venezuela and has a pro-business perspective. Most polling firms in the country, such as the competitor Datanálisis, tend to be pro-opposition. Hinterlaces is more neutral, and often leans toward the government, although Schemel has criticized some of Maduro’s economic policies.

On February 01 2019 12:51 JimmiC wrote:
Yes many articles have pointed out how surprising it is that Guaido is getting this level of support considering the US publicly supported him. It is amazing as US anywhere near anything was the kiss of death, but they are just so sick of the corruption and being hungry and sick they are willing to give him a chance.

Or like you suggest they are protesting with the complicated belief that their protests will lead to talks in Mexico about a leadership change. And they just happen to hold them when Guaido asks, not because they want what he offers (new elections with him as interm). But rather these talks. So far I have yet to see these signs or any information that this is what they want. But maybe they just think the world will figure it out as you have or Maduro will.


And I have answered your questions but you still have not answered mine. If Maduro doesn't leave as the people clearly want, your way or the other, what do you think the international community and also Venezuelans should do to encourage him to do so?

On February 01 2019 13:13 JimmiC wrote:
The issue is that you think the people of venezuela consider guaido a us coup. And that you think that this some how means a military invasion.

But you are also dodging now my two questions.

Do you want foriegn military invasion of the US?

What to do if Maduro wont step aside, both the people and international community.

What to do if Maduro wont step aside, both the people and international community.

On February 01 2019 14:05 JimmiC wrote:


I didnt, just didnt want to assume. So you are about the angriest guy I have encountered with his own government and yet you would not support a foriegn coup. That means 5 million Venezuelans are angrier at their goverment than you, and that is not including the millions and millions that have also fled who are very likley angrier than you. That really puts that number in perspective.

If you want to feed the people why not use their gold to do so?

Also if he would take a bribe Id be all over that. You would hope not too large because he has stolen enough from his people but some times you have to let the bad guy get away with it for the greater good and hope karma catches up to him.

Anyways enough trying to convince you of some pretty obvious stuff. And since you think I'm missing obvious stuff and you just keep looping back to "US lead coup" let us just leave it and get back to what the thread is about.

If you want to keep trying to convince me of the conspiracy and not post additional information, please do so on your blog not mine. Thanks!

Mr. Maduro’s time is running out, but in order to manage his exit with the minimum of bloodshed, all of Venezuela must unite in pushing for a definitive end to his regime.

On February 01 2019 23:52 JimmiC wrote:
Yes you are full of opinion pieces that fit you opinion and don't value those opinions that disagree. It is not that I don't like that video, it is just that is an opinion, I then like to also see the other opinions like the others posted about Guaido doesn't want talks because Madruo has already promised to not do of things that the people want, new fair elections, releasing political prisoners. Heck you would think if Maduro actually wanted real talks he would stop shooting unarmed protesters.

I wish I knew I could just call points and questions I didn't like blah I could just avoid everything you say!

NEW RULE

You can no longer call it a Coup with out evidence. A coup is "a sudden, violent, and illegal seizure of power from a government". Since Guaido has not grabbed power, it hasn't been sudden and he has been non violent this is incorrect. There is also a question on whether or not it was legal.

Second rule

If you want to say US supported, you have to name all the countries that support it.


EXAMPLE of a fair honest and true Description.

Guaido is attempting to over throw the Maduro government with the support of Canada, Australia, UK, Germany, France, Spain, Italy, Poland, Sweden, Republic of Ireland, Spain, Romania, Netherlands, Denmark, Bulgaria, Belgium Austria, Greece, Czech Republic, Finland, Hungary, Luxembourg, Malta, Lethuania, Cyprus, Slovenia, Slovakia, Estonia, Latvia, Norway, Ukraine, Japan, Brazil, Columbia, Chile, Peru, Argentina, Costa Rica, Guatemala, Honduras, Panama, Paraguay and the US.

If this is too long and specific for your liking you can also write the European union and the other countries.

If you like you can add in that the countries Syria, China, Russia, Turkey, Boliva, Iran, Nicaragua, El Salvador support the Madruo government and that Mexico and Uruguay have remained neutral on the subject.

I think it is best to be accurate on these kind of things.

If you choose to not be accurate and write with your blatant biases and ZERO facts that this is US lead coup, please feel free to mess up your own blog where I guess accuracy and honesty is not required and only certain people can post.

Thank you in advance for your cooperation!

Mr. Maduro’s time is running out, but in order to manage his exit with the minimum of bloodshed, all of Venezuela must unite in pushing for a definitive end to his regime.

The United States strongly rejects offers from Mexico, Uruguay and the Vatican to mediate a dialogue between embattled Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro and the head of the country’s opposition-controlled congress, Juan Guaido.

A senior U.S. administration official explicitly mentioned the three in a briefing Thursday and added that “we reject any talks of any type of efforts that would allow Maduro to maintain himself in power.”

On February 02 2019 00:27 JimmiC wrote:
I am not arguing that he is not refusing talks. I am explaining why he is, what is the point when everything wanted Maduro has allready said there is no way he will do it. Do you think Trumps talks with NK have helped the North Koreans?

Yes if it becomes a Coup you can call it such. I have this weird (to you) thing about not treating assumptions like fact. IF it becomes something different you can call it such.

I can't force you but I can request. Keep in mind that your blog is active because I have requested your request for me to not post there. It is odd to me that you won't show me the same respect even though I have for you. And I am not asking you not post, but to follow some pretty simple rules about sharing full information and not treating your assumptions as facts. I could always request a thread ban for you if you can't show me the same courtesy I have shown you, but I would rather not.

On February 02 2019 00:50 JimmiC wrote:

Sure, feel free to term presumption if it makes you feel better. Just start sentences with I presume that this will turn into a US based coup. Instead of "this is a us based coup". Is that a fair compromise? And then you are welcome to post evidence of why you presume it with things like the documentary in the OP.

For the record I don't think it is crazy that you think it will turn into that. I find it frustrating that you act like it is that. I can understand based on past evidence of the US doing these sorts of things why you would presume as much.

I was far more frustrated when the conversation was whether or not the people of Venezuela wanted Maduro as their leader and how much of their economic situation was the fault of him and his corrupt military.

On February 02 2019 01:22 JimmiC wrote:
Sounds good, presume away! Just make it clear that you are doing so. Thanks!

Here is a very complete summary of what is going on and speaks of how force is not the best way to get things done. It also breaks down how something good could come if both sides agree to tough compromises, which sadly at this point neither is willing to consider.

https://www.nbcnews.com/think/opinion/trump-can-t-solve-venezuela-s-crisis-alone-achieving-peace-ncna965676

I think this one GH might agree with and I'm going to edit into the OP.

Observing these cracks, secret international consultations spearheaded by the U.S. in December produced a plan for regime change:

U.S.-orchestrated sanctions designed to deprive the de facto Maduro government of needed resources and redirect them to Guaidó.

On February 02 2019 02:07 JimmiC wrote:
I meant the article in its entirety, that sentence included.

The big difference is you seem to think I am some pro US pro Guaido guy. I'm pro new leadership end of corruption. This seems like the clearest easiest pass to it.

And while you think I'm naive to some long game nefarious plan to invade (I have read that "all options are on the Table, enough to know it is a possibility), I think you are Naive to the fact that Maduro has said he wants talk but has also said under no circumstances will he give up leadership or free political prisoners. My opinion on who was more in the right would change if Madruo said, I'm interested in negotiating how fair elections could be held and I'm confident that the will of the people will be me or something like that.

I also think that there is large international pressure on the US to not invade and they are not the unparalleled power they once were or that you think they are. They also have a shit ton less credibility then they had before the Iraq war globally.

Also if I was to think that this was some plot to have an excuse to invade Venezuela, I would think the play by the US would not be to protect Guaido but rather either let Maduro get him, torture and kill him, or do it themselves but acting like it was Maduro. To incense the international community and his supporters, turn him into a martyr and have a great reason to invade.

This plan you presume is terrible, because it is shining the international spot light on the situation and giving the global powers, China and Russia who support Maduro time to both sway public opinion and militarily support.

I would hope if the US was staging a Coup they would have done it much faster and better like they did in the past. That is why I presume that this is an internally driven revolution attempt that the Americans support because it happens to match their goal of getting a strong Russian and Chinese Ally out of their "back yard".

But as fun as it is to put on the old tinfoil hat and make sweeping presumptions and predictions I'm trying to understand the facts the come out and weed through the biased (on both sides) opinions that are flowing freely in this very complicated and fluid situation.

On February 02 2019 03:55 JimmiC wrote:


It is condescending statements and assumptions like this that lead you into so many fights and the occasional ban. Because I have a different opinion does not mean I don't know as much as you. Your arrogance is so tiring and makes any discussion with you difficult. It is a huge blind spot for you that you can't see that in this example I could also be aware, but I could see some stark differences between the situations and therefor come to a different conclusion then you.

I'm doing my best to have a open discussion with you, and setting some ground rules to keep it on point. But if you are just going to keep going to your move of leading with a condescending asshole comment there is no point. Have you reflected on why you do this? Is it because you think it makes you look smarter? Are you aware of it and trying to make people mad or sad make you feel better? It sure can't be to try to convince people of your point because it does the opposite and turns a discussion into a fight.

I literally just posted an article that in many ways agrees with your position and you respond like this. Do you not understand how that makes you look? And what it makes me think about you?

Please keep shit like that off the blog. Thanks.

That you aren't familiar with previous regime changes has certainly left you unable to see what is in front of you so far.

Because I have a different opinion does not mean I don't know as much as you.

On February 02 2019 07:21 JimmiC wrote:


This has not happened.

On February 02 2019 07:34 JimmiC wrote:
For a guy who argues assumption vs presumption you think you would understand the difference between regime change and coup.

I also spoke about this both in PM and on this thread so feel free to go back and read that as I'm not stating it again.

And because I'm trying to be informational not biased and just get people to agree with me like your goal I am trying to post things from both sides. Odd how you can't recognize it, but super exhausting.

You have to hold your "I told you so's" until there is actual military invasion.

And if you really want to play that game, it was not long ago when you were saying that the people of Venezuela wanted Maduro as their leader. At least we have moved past that nonsense.


If you want to fight with me PM. If you want to post about whats going Venezuela. Last warning.


Edit: since I'm not a mod and don't have the power to ban you, I'll just take your continued lack of showing me the same respect I've shown you as an invitation to start posting on your blog, since I do have control over whether or not I do that.

On February 02 2019 07:57 JimmiC wrote:
Like I said go back and read my posts and PM's. It totally makes sense that before someone did what Guiado did they would look for international support which includes the US. This does make it a US coup.

And yes I think the long list of nations I listed earlier that includes the US also support regime change. Because they have said as much.

You have not pulled the curtains back, this is well known public information.

On February 02 2019 08:07 JimmiC wrote:
Darn typo. Doesn't *


The rest is just the same treadmill you keep us on. Moving on until more news breaks.

On February 02 2019 09:02 JimmiC wrote:
If you want to worry about what you can't control and that lets you feel like you have some control have at it. It will make you miserable but whatever. Sure you can go "told you so" but all those times you are wrong you worried for nothing. And all this bitching and complaining about what MIGHT happen isn't going to stop it anyhow.

The bottom line in this world that is actually happening right now, is a country and its people desperately wants and needs to get out from a horrible dictator who is starving them to death, shooting, arresting and torturing them for protesting and has stolen the nations wealth, both himself and through state sponsored corruption.

We know this, it is indisputable fact. So things COULD get worse, but they ARE horrible. So since we have a realistic chance for change I am hoping it happens. And then I hope the Venezuelan vote for good government and not a Right wing asshat. But sadly because Maduro marketed himself as a socialist and people believed him (including you) there is going to be strong momentum to swing the opposite direction.

That my is reality. And sadly that is not what you are peddling. So please stop typing what MIGHT happen I am aware it could, and anyone who has read here and hasn't been turned off by your condescending way and arrogance of thinking you know all the answers and are a special guy who has all the answers attitude knows it as well. So just stop already if anyone other then me hasn't given up on this thread, we get it Bad right wingers MIGHT take over and the US would likely support them.

Luis Vicente Leon, head of the Caracas-based polling firm Datanalisis, said that Guaido was so unknown that he hadn't even measured Guaido's approval ratings, like he does numerous other politicians. But he plans to start doing so this week.

Critics say Guaido lacks a political vision, pointing to his rambling debut speech as the legislature’s president, which was full of rhetorical barbs aimed at the “usurper” Maduro but short on specifics on how to get out of the malaise.

On February 06 2019 11:27 JimmiC wrote:
@nebuchad it is likely my bias that are making react perhaps to harsh. Who is the guy? And why should I believe him?

I'm always skeptical of someone who acts like he's got it all figured out and the rest of people are snowed, especially at this guys age. But perhaps I'm judging a book by the cover. Do you know his education level and is his knowledge based on some specific research or traveling to these places or something?

On February 07 2019 03:03 RvB wrote:

That doesn't cause a collapse this large though. Venezuela has been suffering from dutch disease for more than a century. They never collapsed this badly. Neither did any other oil producing country. Even Iraq didn't collapse like this while it's incredibly oil dependent, as corrupt as Venezuela and went through a war against IS. For me it's pretty clear it's socialist economic policy which exacerbated the crisis to such an extent. But I was also curious what he thought.