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Venezuela political situation/humanitarian Crisis - Page 6

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JimmiC
Profile Blog Joined May 2011
Canada22817 Posts
January 31 2019 20:44 GMT
#101
--- Nuked ---
GreenHorizons
Profile Blog Joined April 2011
United States23230 Posts
Last Edited: 2019-01-31 20:59:43
January 31 2019 20:55 GMT
#102
On February 01 2019 05:38 JimmiC wrote:
Show nested quote +
On February 01 2019 05:18 GreenHorizons wrote:
On February 01 2019 05:05 JimmiC wrote:
On February 01 2019 04:41 GreenHorizons wrote:
On February 01 2019 04:33 JimmiC wrote:
Yes it is, about what is happening. What could happen if X Y Z happens while acting like X Y Z are happening but are really assumptions seems like a fools errand to me. So I will stick to what is happening and will remain hopeful because assuming the worst accomplishes nothing. But by all means you have your whole blog to talk about whatever it is that you want so do all your future theorizing and so on there.


Guaido says that his family has been threaten and that the police loyal to Maduro came for his wife in an attempt to intimidate him. Who knows? I think because of how public this is he is fairly safe, but it is also pretty classic strongman tactics.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-47066906


https://thehill.com/policy/international/427885-venezuelas-guaido-says-police-showed-up-at-house-looking-for-his-wife




Perhaps you're familiar with the phrase "hope for the best, but prepare for the worst".

If you want to ignore probability and hope against the odds that's fine, just being surprised is illogical. It's like being surprised you didn't hit your royal flush on the river when you started with AK suited and a 2 of clubs comes on the flop.

Also of course he's going to be threatened, and quite likely killed if he doesn't accept talks soon.


I'm not doing any of the planning, neither are you so that is not really relevant in this case.

I hope he is not actually killed that would almost certainly lead to lots more violence whether it is civil war or invasion or both.


Reading the odds of someone's hand doesn't (perhaps I use "you" to informally for this to be easy to follow) doesn't require one to be playing. Neither does gambling on the outcome really. I'm just saying 6 months from now if it's a clusterfuck you should have known that was the most likely outcome of the actions you support.

I know everyone considers them propaganda (it all is everywhere, it's just a matter of who it's for imo) but this is the best write up I've seen on the situation. Articulated by someone clearly not supportive of Maduro but also against the coup (a voice that's been absent from US media and most western media).

What Has Happened in Venezuela Is a Coup. Trump’s Denial Is Dangerous

Juan Guaidó has declared himself president. Now the US and rightwing regimes may seek an excuse to intervene in support.

At the dawn of the 21st century, Hugo Chavez invoked Bolívar’s promise and when the poor, black, Amerindian people of Venezuela returned him to power, time and again, especially after the failed US-backed coup of 2002, he too radicalised his stance against the mighty empire Bolivar had only speculated about, America. Again, the promise was realised only in part. Some might say the revolution has been betrayed or stalled during the rule of his successor Nicolás Maduro. No one can deny Venezuela’s problems. The very source of its magic in the 1970s, oil, has proven its downfall. Chavez did not win his country’s independence from oil and its geopolitics.

Crisis loomed when global prices fell, production stagnated, the value of the currency dropped, and under Maduro, dependence on imports and retail monopolies meant shortages that hurt many. That responsibility lies with the government and the industrialist rightwing opposition. But to think that this opposition, revived by Juan Guaidó’s self-proclamation spectacle, acts out of genuine concern for the poor, black people and Amerindians who empowered themselves during the years of the Bolivarian revolution would be foolish.

Enter Donald Trump: megalomaniac, erratic, liar. Calling out the interventionism of previous US administrations, which had been constant in their hatred for Chavez and their attempts to regain influence in the region, Trump promised to put an end to all such shenanigans. But on Wednesday, vice-president Mike Pence saluted Guaidó’s self-appointment, observing that although Trump disliked intervening elsewhere, he “has always had a very different view of our hemisphere”. That’s an explicit invocation of the Monroe doctrine under which the US has held it as its responsibility to intervene in the Americas, which it sees as its backyard.

Trump swiftly recognised Guaidó as the interim president of Venezuela, and was followed by a cohort of Latin American presidents, all-white, upper-class leaders now spearheading the new reactionary wave in the region: Brazil’s Jair Bolsonaro, Argentina’s Mauricio Macri, Colombia’s Iván Duque and Chile’s Sebastián Piñera. They’ll proclaim themselves saviours of democracy and humanitarianism, the liars. Draping themselves in the robes of the liberators of yesteryear, just as Guaidó draped himself in the image of Chavez and Bolívar while holding a constitution with the latter’s image on its cover, they’ll happily support further US sanctions, paramilitary forces training Venezuela’s opposition in the torture tactics that displaced 7 million people in Colombia, or using “lawfare” in pan-American institutions just as happened to Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Dilma Rousseff in Brazil, Manuel Zelaya in Honduras and Fernando Lugo in Paraguay.

Expect such measures to have limited purchase. Washington knows it. Then, Trump and the others will be ready to go for the more muscular approach. Not by accident, this could also benefit Trump as elections approach or if he is cornered by investigations and impeachment. War distracts and makes money. Only this won’t be a regional plunder: China and Russia, both with key interests in Venezuela and elsewhere in the region, have followed Bolivia, Mexico, Uruguay and Cuba to call Guaidó’s stunt by its real name: a coup. Russia has indicated it would come to the defence of its ally. In Venezuela, many who may be critical of Maduro but fear most the return of the rightwing opposition to power are unlikely to cheer the newly converted humanitarians.


venezuelanalysis.com


Of course you think it is the best. It agrees with what you think. This doesn't make it the best.

How many factual reports have you read that have sentences like this? "They’ll proclaim themselves saviours of democracy and humanitarianism, the liars. Draping themselves in the robes of the liberators of yesteryear"
That Maduro government funs the website alone should make it questionable but even reading it it is pretty clear it is not the "best" reporting. It is certainly biased as hell.

Also you version of "planning" is actually worrying which doesn't accomplish anything. If you would like to explain to me what actual planning you are doing that will do something to help the Venezuelan people I'd be interested other


Plenty. They are just usually referencing Maduro or the government.

I didn't call it reporting. I called it a summary of the situation from a perspective sorely lacking here and in the west at large. One I find to be the best.

Of course since it doesn't align with the propaganda line from the west (or the propaganda from Maduro) you have to reject it outright. Rather than consider it a potentially valid opinion and dispute that.

That you immediately shut down,label conspiracy, or dismiss as propaganda any opinion that is critical of the coup and Maduro is how manufacturing consent works.

You're taking a politician you know nothing about at their word, most people don't do that for good reason.

On February 01 2019 05:44 JimmiC wrote:
I also think you need to stop saying that Mexico and Uruguay support the Maduro Government. Both have taken a policy of neutrality and wish for their to be dialogue. And Mexico recently said "for now".

They never say anything along the lines of Maduro being the rightful leader. That list is Turkey, Syria, Russia, China.


I don't remember saying that. Perhaps that they support Maduro and the UN's call for talks without Maduro stepping down (which is clearly the only responsible path forward at this point imo).
"People like to look at history and think 'If that was me back then, I would have...' We're living through history, and the truth is, whatever you are doing now is probably what you would have done then" "Scratch a Liberal..."
GreenHorizons
Profile Blog Joined April 2011
United States23230 Posts
Last Edited: 2019-01-31 21:06:20
January 31 2019 21:03 GMT
#103
Does it matter that the write-up I deemed best summed up the situation was originally in the Guardian, or is it still propaganda paid for by the Maduro government?

There is plenty to criticise Maduro for: late or misguided economic measures, corruption, power-hoarding. But these criticisms cannot disguise a coup or justify an intervention that, if and when it comes, would engulf us all. Trump counts on Colombia’s Iván Duque, Alvaro Uribe’s appointee, and Brazil’s neo-fascists to support this, contributing troops of their own if needed. A neo-fascist runs one of the Americas’ powerhouses in Brazil; a narcissistic liar afraid of being painted into a corner runs the other. That combination is toxic. War in the name of humanity may tempt them, as it did the more liberal leaders of the past. But this time the stakes are higher. Venezuela’s coup is a threat to the entire world.

• Oscar Guardiola-Rivera teaches human rights and philosophy at Birkbeck College, University of London


https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/jan/28/venezuela-coup-trump-juan-guaido

Also you version of "planning" is actually worrying which doesn't accomplish anything. If you would like to explain to me what actual planning you are doing that will do something to help the Venezuelan people I'd be interested other


Stopping the US from doing what it always does in regime changes and getting the people fed and their right of self-determination, interrupting the manufacturing of consent, stuff like that.
"People like to look at history and think 'If that was me back then, I would have...' We're living through history, and the truth is, whatever you are doing now is probably what you would have done then" "Scratch a Liberal..."
JimmiC
Profile Blog Joined May 2011
Canada22817 Posts
January 31 2019 21:25 GMT
#104
--- Nuked ---
GreenHorizons
Profile Blog Joined April 2011
United States23230 Posts
Last Edited: 2019-01-31 21:49:55
January 31 2019 21:48 GMT
#105
On February 01 2019 06:25 JimmiC wrote:
It matters that you call it best because it agrees most with what you think, not because it contains the most information or some other metric.


It is by a very specific metric, it's one of only 2 voices presented here that was critical of both the coup and Maduro. That every other source (besides the ones you consider Maduro propaganda or dismiss as opinion) is supportive of the coup despite the Venezuelan people overwhelming supporting talks, as well as the UN, and former PM of Spain (all previously sourced) makes them foundationally flawed. Even if they were 100% right about Maduro.

It is also really funny that you think your perspective is sorely lacking here. It is my blog and I can barely keep up with you!.


Literally everywhere you look you can find western media supportive of the coup, it's not easy to find informed opinions from people in Venezuela or that study the region that represent the ~84% of Venezuelans that want talks not a US supported coup (like 95% of western media)
"People like to look at history and think 'If that was me back then, I would have...' We're living through history, and the truth is, whatever you are doing now is probably what you would have done then" "Scratch a Liberal..."
JimmiC
Profile Blog Joined May 2011
Canada22817 Posts
January 31 2019 21:56 GMT
#106
--- Nuked ---
GreenHorizons
Profile Blog Joined April 2011
United States23230 Posts
Last Edited: 2019-01-31 22:10:12
January 31 2019 22:06 GMT
#107
On February 01 2019 06:56 JimmiC wrote:
Not only was the source of that questionable. But If someone asked me Do you support a US supported Coup of your government? my answer would be no. If they asked do you support your current leader ? My answer would be no. Do you support new fair elections? Yes

What I'm getting at is there is a thing called loaded questions sometimes it happens accidentally so when you are creating surveys you need to be very careful. But in this case it is clear there was a goal.

Also generally when you do these things you also put out the information about how many people what type of people you talked to and the statistical relevance.


I have posted many more balanced articles than that. You don't actually think it is, do you? Come on man. Perhaps if you had this is opinion that best matches my own it would make more sense and give the reader some context.


It's not about some vague notion of balance. It's about a popular perspective that's almost completely absent, disproportionate to a much less popular perspective that is basically ubiquitous in the west, the US especially.

Show me any source you came up with (without undermining it, hell I consider one you say you "put in context") demonstrating the clearly popular position that opposes Maduro, and also the coup, please so we can clear this up instead of just saying you did and me saying you didn't.

Keep in mind you're looking for reporting on that perspective (factual statements about what people say they believe), or someone holding it (which like all political opinions, are opinions).

"People like to look at history and think 'If that was me back then, I would have...' We're living through history, and the truth is, whatever you are doing now is probably what you would have done then" "Scratch a Liberal..."
JimmiC
Profile Blog Joined May 2011
Canada22817 Posts
January 31 2019 22:37 GMT
#108
--- Nuked ---
GreenHorizons
Profile Blog Joined April 2011
United States23230 Posts
Last Edited: 2019-01-31 22:49:37
January 31 2019 22:48 GMT
#109
On February 01 2019 07:37 JimmiC wrote:
Show nested quote +
On February 01 2019 07:06 GreenHorizons wrote:
On February 01 2019 06:56 JimmiC wrote:
Not only was the source of that questionable. But If someone asked me Do you support a US supported Coup of your government? my answer would be no. If they asked do you support your current leader ? My answer would be no. Do you support new fair elections? Yes

What I'm getting at is there is a thing called loaded questions sometimes it happens accidentally so when you are creating surveys you need to be very careful. But in this case it is clear there was a goal.

Also generally when you do these things you also put out the information about how many people what type of people you talked to and the statistical relevance.


I have posted many more balanced articles than that. You don't actually think it is, do you? Come on man. Perhaps if you had this is opinion that best matches my own it would make more sense and give the reader some context.


It's not about some vague notion of balance. It's about a popular perspective that's almost completely absent, disproportionate to a much less popular perspective that is basically ubiquitous in the west, the US especially.

Show me any source you came up with (without undermining it, hell I consider one you say you "put in context") demonstrating the clearly popular position that opposes Maduro, and also the coup, please so we can clear this up instead of just saying you did and me saying you didn't.

Keep in mind you're looking for reporting on that perspective (factual statements about what people say they believe), or someone holding it (which like all political opinions, are opinions).




Something like this seems more balanced.

https://www.euronews.com/2019/01/27/is-it-legal-for-juan-guaido-to-be-proclaimed-venezuela-s-interim-president

It remains a mystery to me why you act as though "the west" is hungry for a military coup. From everything I have read they are hungry for elections. Bolton and Trump might be different and likely are but they do not control the opinions of the "the west"



It's not about some vague notion of balance.

Are you really giving us that as your example of representative of the perspective from Venezuelans that don't support Maduro or the coup?
"People like to look at history and think 'If that was me back then, I would have...' We're living through history, and the truth is, whatever you are doing now is probably what you would have done then" "Scratch a Liberal..."
JimmiC
Profile Blog Joined May 2011
Canada22817 Posts
Last Edited: 2019-01-31 23:26:49
January 31 2019 23:26 GMT
#110
--- Nuked ---
GreenHorizons
Profile Blog Joined April 2011
United States23230 Posts
February 01 2019 01:11 GMT
#111
On February 01 2019 08:26 JimmiC wrote:
I think the protests show that they don't support Maduro, especially when they are risking their lives to do so. I also think the 3 million that have left shows they don't support him.
.


I think that proves my point about not coming up with anything reflective of the voices Venezuelans protesting Maduro but also not supportive of a coup or Guaido.
"People like to look at history and think 'If that was me back then, I would have...' We're living through history, and the truth is, whatever you are doing now is probably what you would have done then" "Scratch a Liberal..."
JimmiC
Profile Blog Joined May 2011
Canada22817 Posts
Last Edited: 2019-02-01 01:47:44
February 01 2019 01:47 GMT
#112
--- Nuked ---
GreenHorizons
Profile Blog Joined April 2011
United States23230 Posts
Last Edited: 2019-02-01 01:53:19
February 01 2019 01:52 GMT
#113
On February 01 2019 10:47 JimmiC wrote:
The people protesting are protesting for Guaido


uh, no. You know there are multiple parties in Venezuela with different perspectives right? That depending on how you measure he wasn't even the most popular figure in one of the less popular parties?

It's like saying everyone that went out to protest Trump was in favor of Chuck Schumer(but worse because of the relative support numbers).

This misunderstanding helps me understand where you're coming from though.
"People like to look at history and think 'If that was me back then, I would have...' We're living through history, and the truth is, whatever you are doing now is probably what you would have done then" "Scratch a Liberal..."
JimmiC
Profile Blog Joined May 2011
Canada22817 Posts
February 01 2019 02:02 GMT
#114
--- Nuked ---
GreenHorizons
Profile Blog Joined April 2011
United States23230 Posts
Last Edited: 2019-02-01 02:17:52
February 01 2019 02:13 GMT
#115
On February 01 2019 11:02 JimmiC wrote:
They are protesting for change and elections.

Do you not think that the protests mean they want Maduro out and new elections? Because I do.


That's true (as edited by me) . The issue is the part about how much of the very real opposition to Maduro, trusts Guaido.

The issue being you genuinely believe that ALL of the Venezuelans opposing Maduro support Guaido when that simply isn't the case and should be plainly obvious in the anti-trump protest example.

It should also trigger your bs meter in that even Guaido doesn't try to claim that.
"People like to look at history and think 'If that was me back then, I would have...' We're living through history, and the truth is, whatever you are doing now is probably what you would have done then" "Scratch a Liberal..."
JimmiC
Profile Blog Joined May 2011
Canada22817 Posts
February 01 2019 02:22 GMT
#116
--- Nuked ---
GreenHorizons
Profile Blog Joined April 2011
United States23230 Posts
Last Edited: 2019-02-01 02:27:23
February 01 2019 02:25 GMT
#117
On February 01 2019 11:22 JimmiC wrote:
I do not believe that I believe that they all support change, and are willing for that change to Guaido until the elections are held. At which time they will pick whoever.


They do all support change (besides the pro Maduro protesters of course), the part you're missing is that they didn't/don't all support Guaido's coup as the path. That has to be clear to you now?
"People like to look at history and think 'If that was me back then, I would have...' We're living through history, and the truth is, whatever you are doing now is probably what you would have done then" "Scratch a Liberal..."
JimmiC
Profile Blog Joined May 2011
Canada22817 Posts
Last Edited: 2019-02-01 02:27:59
February 01 2019 02:27 GMT
#118
--- Nuked ---
GreenHorizons
Profile Blog Joined April 2011
United States23230 Posts
Last Edited: 2019-02-01 02:39:25
February 01 2019 02:34 GMT
#119
On February 01 2019 11:27 JimmiC wrote:
What do you think the protesters are protesting? It is Guaido who is calling for them. I'm asking because I honestly can't guess what you believe.


They are opposing Maduro, like how people from Anarchists to Nazi's protest Trump. Your mistake is ascribing them a ubiquitous perception of Guaido.

Anarchists/Communists/Code Pink/log cabin Republicans and Nazi's have all been to Trump protests, not all protesting him for the same reasons or desiring the same outcomes. That's how opposition protests work. We don't have to agree on anything except being against that guy. We can have diametrically opposed goals for what comes next and we might not be honest about them.
"People like to look at history and think 'If that was me back then, I would have...' We're living through history, and the truth is, whatever you are doing now is probably what you would have done then" "Scratch a Liberal..."
JimmiC
Profile Blog Joined May 2011
Canada22817 Posts
February 01 2019 02:41 GMT
#120
--- Nuked ---
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