EPTUS Politics Mega-thread - Page 9503
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Read the rules in the OP before posting, please. In order to ensure that this thread continues to meet TL standards and follows the proper guidelines, we will be enforcing the rules in the OP more strictly. Be sure to give them a re-read to refresh your memory! The vast majority of you are contributing in a healthy way, keep it up! NOTE: When providing a source, explain why you feel it is relevant and what purpose it adds to the discussion if it's not obvious. Also take note that unsubstantiated tweets/posts meant only to rekindle old arguments can result in a mod action. | ||
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{CC}StealthBlue
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LegalLord
United States13779 Posts
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Doodsmack
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{CC}StealthBlue
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mozoku
United States708 Posts
On December 13 2017 12:08 jalstar wrote: Most people are taught the difference between confidence and probability in stats 101 when being taught how to interpret confidence intervals. edit: and empirically it's not a probability because as Plansix said, it already happened. I don't understand what statistics has to do with what Plansix said. He was making a point about the utility of the model. As for the bold, you've got a bit to learn in this area. Quit while you're ahead. | ||
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TheTenthDoc
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Plansix
United States60190 Posts
On December 13 2017 12:29 TheTenthDoc wrote: The big question: is McConnell breathing a sigh of relief right now or not? He would rather fight a democrat than expell a republican. Also, Jeff Flake was right. | ||
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Mohdoo
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{CC}StealthBlue
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Introvert
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LegalLord
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On December 13 2017 12:30 Mohdoo wrote: My ass remains deeply puckered until there is no recount and it's totally official. I'm going to go out on a limb and say that Jones will probably add about 0.5-1 pct point to his lead right now. The remaining votes are still strongly blue. | ||
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Plansix
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Zambrah
United States7393 Posts
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jalstar
United States8198 Posts
On December 13 2017 12:29 mozoku wrote: I don't understand what statistics has to do with what Plansix said. He was making a point about the utility of the model. As for the bold, you've got a bit to learn in this area. Quit while you're ahead. I don't have time to read all of that but typically the word probability is used in terms of predictions and confidence is used for accuracy of measurements of things that already happened, which is what we're dealing with here. And even if you find a counter-example, I did say typically, and a "win" for you would just be semantics. | ||
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ticklishmusic
United States15977 Posts
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TheTenthDoc
United States9561 Posts
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micronesia
United States24805 Posts
On December 13 2017 12:33 TheTenthDoc wrote: Prepare for the illegal vote Trump tweet train to leave the station, with a potential smattering of "full birth abortion." He is going to be real mad. Alternately, he might pretend he never endorsed Moore and say this was why he supported Strange. I think that's less likely but he has no shame and anything is possible. | ||
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{CC}StealthBlue
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Plansix
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TheTenthDoc
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On December 13 2017 12:36 Plansix wrote: What lead does he need to be recount proof? 0.5%. Which he is on track to beat, I think, barring some really weird late Moore leaning counties. | ||
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