EPTOn December 13 2017 11:41 Plansix wrote:
Someone already won! Predictions no longer matter!!!!
Someone already won! Predictions no longer matter!!!!
You have a bone with these I see. Keep repeating that as if we didn't know =)
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Nebuchad
Switzerland12417 Posts
You have a bone with these I see. Keep repeating that as if we didn't know =) | ||
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jalstar
United States8198 Posts
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Danglars
United States12133 Posts
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Plansix
United States60190 Posts
On December 13 2017 11:43 Nebuchad wrote: You have a bone with these I see. Keep repeating that as if we didn't know =) I find it amusing that people are out there defending a complex model that predict something we will know in a couple of hours. It's like solving the three body problem, but using it to predict the location of the moon in 2 hours. | ||
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Danglars
United States12133 Posts
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Introvert
United States4916 Posts
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DarkPlasmaBall
United States45362 Posts
On December 13 2017 11:47 Danglars wrote: This is damn close. You get Jones outperforming percentage forecasts, followed by Moore low turnout, followed by Moore outperforming ... Agreed. I'm seeing variable reports, but some are saying that Moore currently has a slight lead but most of the remaining votes are in urban areas, leading some reporters to predict Jones possibly overtaking Moore there. Personally, I have no idea because it's so close, so I'm just going to sit back and not go crazy over it. | ||
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Plansix
United States60190 Posts
Apparently people gave a shit about this election. | ||
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DarkPlasmaBall
United States45362 Posts
On December 13 2017 11:51 Introvert wrote: The amoral side of me wants to see Moore win so we can find out if Franken will actually retire. Do you think that Franken is leaving only because he wants to persuade Moore and Trump and other Republicans who are sexual assaulters to leave too? Personally, I think Franken is clear-thinking enough to know that him leaving won't move the needle at all for the Republican assailants. | ||
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LegalLord
United States13779 Posts
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Plansix
United States60190 Posts
On December 13 2017 11:55 DarkPlasmaBall wrote: Do you think that Franken is leaving only because he wants to persuade Moore and Trump and other Republicans who are sexual assaulters to leave too? Personally, I think Franken is clear-thinking enough to know that him leaving won't move the needle at all for the Republican assailants. It could be all those women voters and the women in the senate. The GOP in congress is almost all white men. Not a lot of peers there are going call out Trump or Moore. And not a lot of voters to loose. | ||
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Introvert
United States4916 Posts
On December 13 2017 11:55 DarkPlasmaBall wrote: Do you think that Franken is leaving only because he wants to persuade Moore and Trump and other Republicans who are sexual assaulters to leave too? Personally, I think Franken is clear-thinking enough to know that him leaving won't move the needle at all for the Republican assailants. His party needs it. Did you hear is quasi-resignation speech? Dude's pissed and thinks he's innocent. I think if Moore wins Franken is going to consider sticking around and to "let the voters decide my fate." Alligations clearly matter, look at AL, where the Republican almost always wins with >60% of the vote. | ||
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mozoku
United States708 Posts
On December 13 2017 11:42 jalstar wrote: It's a level of confidence, not a probability. Pretty basic statistics, there's no need to be obtuse here. This depends on your statistical assumptions and, empirically speaking, you're more likely than not wrong here seeing as most electoral forecasters aren't using frequentist methods. Or probably shouldn't be anyway. I would have ignored this if it wasn't for the snarky "basic statistics" comment. | ||
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{CC}StealthBlue
United States41117 Posts
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Aquanim
Australia2849 Posts
On December 13 2017 12:06 mozoku wrote:... I'm in agreement with Plansix on the value of this Upshot model. It's literally worthless besides for entertainment purposes... I could say the same about video games. | ||
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jalstar
United States8198 Posts
On December 13 2017 12:06 mozoku wrote: I'm in agreement with Plansix on the value of this Upshot model. It's literally worthless besides for entertainment purposes and has a useful life of two hours. This depends on your statistical assumptions and, empirically speaking, you're more likely than not wrong here seeing as most electoral forecasters aren't using frequentist methods. Or probably shouldn't be anyway. I would have ignored this if it wasn't for the snarky "basic statistics" comment. Most people are taught the difference between confidence and probability in stats 101 when being taught how to interpret confidence intervals. edit: and empirically it's not a probability because as Plansix said, it already happened. | ||
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Danglars
United States12133 Posts
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LegalLord
United States13779 Posts
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Nebuchad
Switzerland12417 Posts
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TheTenthDoc
United States9561 Posts
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