EPTUS Politics Mega-thread - Page 9504
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Read the rules in the OP before posting, please. In order to ensure that this thread continues to meet TL standards and follows the proper guidelines, we will be enforcing the rules in the OP more strictly. Be sure to give them a re-read to refresh your memory! The vast majority of you are contributing in a healthy way, keep it up! NOTE: When providing a source, explain why you feel it is relevant and what purpose it adds to the discussion if it's not obvious. Also take note that unsubstantiated tweets/posts meant only to rekindle old arguments can result in a mod action. | ||
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{CC}StealthBlue
United States41117 Posts
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pvsnp
7676 Posts
On December 13 2017 12:36 TheTenthDoc wrote: 0.5%. Which he is on track to beat, I think, barring some really weird late Moore leaning counties. Specifically, he needs to have a lead > 0.5% (looks like he will) 0.5% would still trigger a recount. | ||
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TheTenthDoc
United States9561 Posts
On December 13 2017 12:37 {CC}StealthBlue wrote: https://twitter.com/Bencjacobs/status/940787630098272256 Can't blame them, they paid for an a capella group. That shit's expensive. | ||
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NewSunshine
United States5938 Posts
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Karis Vas Ryaar
United States4396 Posts
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mozoku
United States708 Posts
On December 13 2017 12:33 jalstar wrote: I don't have time to read all of that but typically the word probability is used in terms of predictions and confidence is used for accuracy of measurements of things that already happened, which is what we're dealing with here. And even if you find a counter-example, I did say typically, and a "win" for you would just be semantics. Your whole point was semantics lol. My point was "if you're going to be a technical smartass, at least be a technically correct one to avoid looking foolish." Fyi, this isn't a mere "counterexample." It's an entirely independent statistical framework, and one that's more commonly used in electoral forecasting than the one you're familiar with. | ||
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{CC}StealthBlue
United States41117 Posts
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Nebuchad
Switzerland12262 Posts
On December 13 2017 12:39 NewSunshine wrote: Even if Jones wins, it's pretty frightening that it's still this close. Though I guess it's an uptick for Alabama even then. Come on, nobody actually thought he'd win. Don't be greedy | ||
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darthfoley
United States8003 Posts
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Plansix
United States60190 Posts
This is a bold move Cotton. | ||
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Logo
United States7542 Posts
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TheTenthDoc
United States9561 Posts
On December 13 2017 12:41 Plansix wrote: https://twitter.com/Bencjacobs/status/940787014307401734 This is a bold move Cotton. It's just like how Trump represented the plurality wishes of the United States by caucusing with the Dems. Except this isn't even a plurality situation. | ||
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jalstar
United States8198 Posts
On December 13 2017 12:41 mozoku wrote: Your whole point was semantics lol. My point was "if you're going to be a technical smartass, at least be a correct one to avoid looking foolish." Fyi, this isn't a mere "counterexample." It's an entirely independent statistical framework, and one that's more commonly used in electoral forecasting than the one you're familiar with. Fine. It's not a frequentist "confidence". It's also not a probability, because the result already happened. | ||
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NewSunshine
United States5938 Posts
On December 13 2017 12:41 Nebuchad wrote: Come on, nobody actually thought he'd win. Don't be greedy You're right. I mean, I shouldn't underestimate how many people thinks he serves the constitution because his spokeswoman said so, while conveniently ignoring how many of its amendments he wishes were gone. | ||
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{CC}StealthBlue
United States41117 Posts
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Mohdoo
United States15713 Posts
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Introvert
United States4825 Posts
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jalstar
United States8198 Posts
Here is an example of a Bayesian study. They don't give the "probability" of having schistosomiasis (except in the context of a diagnostic test) because people either have it or they don't. They do however, give confidence intervals (And use the word confidence) of the total prevalence. | ||
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Karis Vas Ryaar
United States4396 Posts
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TheTenthDoc
United States9561 Posts
On December 13 2017 12:46 Introvert wrote: so is Moore winning or Jones winning more peak 2017. Jones is more late 2017, Moore is more early 2017. On December 13 2017 12:49 Karis Vas Ryaar wrote: personally I think Jones should just go independent and caucus with the Dems. prob won't though I don't really see the point. His 2020 chances are vanishingly small no matter what he does (unless Moore wins another primary lmao) and it's not like he disagrees with the Dems on anything. | ||
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