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Read the rules in the OP before posting, please.

In order to ensure that this thread continues to meet TL standards and follows the proper guidelines, we will be enforcing the rules in the OP more strictly. Be sure to give them a re-read to refresh your memory! The vast majority of you are contributing in a healthy way, keep it up!

NOTE: When providing a source, explain why you feel it is relevant and what purpose it adds to the discussion if it's not obvious.
Also take note that unsubstantiated tweets/posts meant only to rekindle old arguments can result in a mod action.
CannonsNCarriers
Profile Joined April 2010
United States638 Posts
May 04 2016 19:08 GMT
#74721
What do Sandernistas think Sanders is going to do at the convention? There may be a vote, but he has and will have less delegates. Less delegates means you lose. This is why Cruz dropped out, because he realized that even with his delegate chicanery he couldn't possibly win a floor vote.

And losers don't get a say in the platform. Once you get voted down, you stay down.
Dun tuch my cheezbrgr
andrewlt
Profile Joined August 2009
United States7702 Posts
Last Edited: 2016-05-04 19:17:23
May 04 2016 19:12 GMT
#74722
On May 05 2016 03:26 Nyxisto wrote:
Show nested quote +
On May 05 2016 03:19 IgnE wrote:
On May 05 2016 02:26 Nyxisto wrote:
On May 05 2016 02:19 oneofthem wrote:
electorate is dumb enough to elect a populist. the most important short term issue is preserving the center against extremists purely on ground of not being entirely detached from reality. then the establishment should take seriously the economic drivers of discontent.


I really don't think that the drivers behind this discontent are economic in nature, just look at the same kind of populist movements in the economically stable European countries. The issues run much deeper and are more about increasingly nativist voterbases being fed up with the democratic parliamentary process as a whole.


what are you on about? the "economically stable" european countries? the euro crisis hasn't gone away. unemployment 10 or 20% in some countries. growth near zero throughout much of the eurozone. yeah pretty stable.

saying something like "the issues run much deeper" and then following it up with a bedrock of nativism mistakes effect for cause.


The economically unstable countries like Spain, Portugal or Greece pretty much have non of this stuff going on or have responded with a far-left vote. Denmark/Austria now also Germany and (the rapidly developing) Eastern European nations are, at the moment, the countries with the strongest reactionary responses, with similar figureheads like Trump making it into politics.


Trump has a base of older, white male voters with high school degrees angry about the disappearance of high paying manufacturing jobs. Part of the anti-elite sentiment on that side is because of how much college graduates have left behind high school graduates. They're looking for someone to blame for falling down the economic ladder and Trump is providing them with the usual suspects (immigrants, China).

It's not a simple left-right thing. Trump's initial base is full of what we would call blue dog democrats, mostly rural southern democrats who are economically to the left but socially conservative (though not necessarily religiously conservative). Clinton, on the other hand, has a lot of Rockefeller Republicans/Clinton (Bill) Democrats, who are economically more center but socially liberal. Bernie has the young, angry humanities majors.

On May 05 2016 04:01 Karis Vas Ryaar wrote:
If it makes someone any better the Phillipines have their own version of Trump and he's actually leading in the election after saying he should have been the first to rape somebody.


I used to live in the Philippines. That place is a dump. What's worse is that Dictator Marcos' son is leading in the vice presidential race.

Actually, what's even worse is that the Philippines elects the president and vice president separately. What often happens is that the vice president comes from a different party and is spending their time backstabbing the president.
GreenHorizons
Profile Blog Joined April 2011
United States24139 Posts
Last Edited: 2016-05-04 19:12:48
May 04 2016 19:12 GMT
#74723
On May 05 2016 04:08 CannonsNCarriers wrote:
What do Sandernistas think Sanders is going to do at the convention? There may be a vote, but he has and will have less delegates. Less delegates means you lose. This is why Cruz dropped out, because he realized that even with his delegate chicanery he couldn't possibly win a floor vote.

And losers don't get a say in the platform. Once you get voted down, you stay down.


That isn't how a convention works, especially not a Democratic convention.
"People like to look at history and think 'If that was me back then, I would have...' We're living through history, and the truth is, whatever you are doing now is probably what you would have done then" "Scratch a Liberal..."
pmh
Profile Joined March 2016
1416 Posts
May 04 2016 19:13 GMT
#74724
If Clinton thinks she can beat trump on her own she is delusional.
But I do believe that she truly thinks this,and many establishment democrats with her.
Despite having a huge anti establishment movement inside their own party they remain blind for the fact that people are fed up with politicians in general. Just saw a list of celebritys that do support trump,its an interesting list that shows that the trump movement is about more then just a few "angry rednecks".
It is interesting that the anti establishment sentiment comes up now, right after obama,s presidency.
When elected for the first time he was seen as an idealistic figure who could turn around Washington politics,for many people outside the usa Obama still is a role model and a beacon of hope,but I guess americans have become disappointed by the harsh reality.
Now the republicans can predict the message of change,while the democrats have the more conservative establishment candidate.
Its a bit the opposite of how it was for the past 2 decades,a very interesting shift.

Plansix
Profile Blog Joined April 2011
United States60190 Posts
May 04 2016 19:14 GMT
#74725
On May 05 2016 04:12 GreenHorizons wrote:
Show nested quote +
On May 05 2016 04:08 CannonsNCarriers wrote:
What do Sandernistas think Sanders is going to do at the convention? There may be a vote, but he has and will have less delegates. Less delegates means you lose. This is why Cruz dropped out, because he realized that even with his delegate chicanery he couldn't possibly win a floor vote.

And losers don't get a say in the platform. Once you get voted down, you stay down.


That isn't how a convention works, especially not a Democratic convention.

Yeah, the pledge super delegates are also counted. I believe Hilary has the majority of them as well, by a comically wide margin.
I have the Honor to be your Obedient Servant, P.6
TL+ Member
Clonester
Profile Joined August 2014
Germany2808 Posts
May 04 2016 19:14 GMT
#74726
On May 05 2016 04:08 CannonsNCarriers wrote:
What do Sandernistas think Sanders is going to do at the convention? There may be a vote, but he has and will have less delegates. Less delegates means you lose. This is why Cruz dropped out, because he realized that even with his delegate chicanery he couldn't possibly win a floor vote.

And losers don't get a say in the platform. Once you get voted down, you stay down.


Independend run?
Bomber, Attacker, DD, SOMEBODY, NiKo, Nex, Spidii
oBlade
Profile Blog Joined December 2008
United States6312 Posts
May 04 2016 19:16 GMT
#74727
On May 05 2016 04:14 Clonester wrote:
Show nested quote +
On May 05 2016 04:08 CannonsNCarriers wrote:
What do Sandernistas think Sanders is going to do at the convention? There may be a vote, but he has and will have less delegates. Less delegates means you lose. This is why Cruz dropped out, because he realized that even with his delegate chicanery he couldn't possibly win a floor vote.

And losers don't get a say in the platform. Once you get voted down, you stay down.


Independend run?

That was one candidate's friendly advice:

"I read it. You know how to read, you ignorant fuck?" - Andy Dufresne
CannonsNCarriers
Profile Joined April 2010
United States638 Posts
May 04 2016 19:18 GMT
#74728
On May 05 2016 04:12 GreenHorizons wrote:
Show nested quote +
On May 05 2016 04:08 CannonsNCarriers wrote:
What do Sandernistas think Sanders is going to do at the convention? There may be a vote, but he has and will have less delegates. Less delegates means you lose. This is why Cruz dropped out, because he realized that even with his delegate chicanery he couldn't possibly win a floor vote.

And losers don't get a say in the platform. Once you get voted down, you stay down.


That isn't how a convention works, especially not a Democratic convention.


If Sanders forces a floor fight, and then loses, there won't be any concessions. Any potential concessions would come long before then from Sanders graciously bowing out to allow the Democrats to gear up for the general. If he bitterly forces a fight to satisfy his ego and keep his delusional supporters sending checks, no way any actual Democrats give him a thing.
Dun tuch my cheezbrgr
Plansix
Profile Blog Joined April 2011
United States60190 Posts
May 04 2016 19:18 GMT
#74729
On May 05 2016 04:13 pmh wrote:
If Clinton thinks she can beat trump on her own she is delusional.
But I do believe that she truly thinks this,and many establishment democrats with her.
Despite having a huge anti establishment movement inside their own party they remain blind for the fact that people are fed up with politicians in general. Just saw a list of celebritys that do support trump,its an interesting list that shows that the trump movement is about more then just a few "angry rednecks".
It is interesting that the anti establishment sentiment comes up now, right after obama,s presidency.
When elected for the first time he was seen as an idealistic figure who could turn around Washington politics,for many people outside the usa Obama still is a role model and a beacon of hope,but I guess americans have become disappointed by the harsh reality.
Now the republicans can predict the message of change,while the democrats have the more conservative establishment candidate.
Its a bit the opposite of how it was for the past 2 decades,a very interesting shift.


You don’t seem to be familiar with electoral math or how unpopular Trump is with the people who decide the general election. There are people in Florida getting their citizenship just to vote against him. He is polling at like 14% among Hispanics in that state. It is almost impossible for a Republican to win without Florida and it’s a hard get for Trump.
I have the Honor to be your Obedient Servant, P.6
TL+ Member
GreenHorizons
Profile Blog Joined April 2011
United States24139 Posts
Last Edited: 2016-05-04 19:23:30
May 04 2016 19:22 GMT
#74730
On May 05 2016 04:18 CannonsNCarriers wrote:
Show nested quote +
On May 05 2016 04:12 GreenHorizons wrote:
On May 05 2016 04:08 CannonsNCarriers wrote:
What do Sandernistas think Sanders is going to do at the convention? There may be a vote, but he has and will have less delegates. Less delegates means you lose. This is why Cruz dropped out, because he realized that even with his delegate chicanery he couldn't possibly win a floor vote.

And losers don't get a say in the platform. Once you get voted down, you stay down.


That isn't how a convention works, especially not a Democratic convention.


If Sanders forces a floor fight, and then loses, there won't be any concessions. Any potential concessions would come long before then from Sanders graciously bowing out to allow the Democrats to gear up for the general. If he bitterly forces a fight to satisfy his ego and keep his delusional supporters sending checks, no way any actual Democrats give him a thing.


Have you ever been to a convention? That's just not how they work. Also just because people are supporting Hillary, doesn't mean they don't agree with some of Bernie's platform positions more.

I wouldn't be surprised to see a resolution passed to change language around foreign policy, since Hillary is more hawkish than even a significant amount of her supporters, for example. But there are plenty of parts where Hillary supporters will have to choose between blind loyalty and supporting platform planks they believe to be right.
"People like to look at history and think 'If that was me back then, I would have...' We're living through history, and the truth is, whatever you are doing now is probably what you would have done then" "Scratch a Liberal..."
Acrofales
Profile Joined August 2010
Spain18371 Posts
Last Edited: 2016-05-04 19:25:19
May 04 2016 19:24 GMT
#74731
On May 05 2016 03:55 GreenHorizons wrote:
Show nested quote +
On May 05 2016 03:50 Gorsameth wrote:
On May 05 2016 03:38 GreenHorizons wrote:
On May 05 2016 03:35 Plansix wrote:
On May 05 2016 03:31 GreenHorizons wrote:
On May 05 2016 03:27 Gorsameth wrote:
On May 05 2016 03:26 GreenHorizons wrote:
On May 05 2016 03:21 Plansix wrote:
On May 05 2016 03:17 GreenHorizons wrote:
On May 05 2016 03:14 Plansix wrote:
[quote]
Lets not even get into the fact that Hilary has been given 20% of her fund raising to the DNC, while Sanders has been keeping it. Since the Super Delegates vote for the good of the party as a whole, there is zero reason for them to support Sanders.


lol. "To the DNC". I can't take seriously people bragging about Hillary's "trickle down" fundraising.

20% to the DNC (for her general election campaign) then the other 79% went into her campaign. At least when Bernie raises money for other candidates they actually get to keep it, not pass it back clean like the state parties are for Hillary.

Seems like a pretty shit plan then and the pledged super delegates show it.


Not sure if you're serious or you're pretending Hillary didn't threaten supers who didn't pledge to her?

Please, do surprise us all and provide evidence of that.

Don't worry if you can't. we all know its horseshit...



This is the feigned naiveté I've been talking about. You're suggesting Hillary didn't give the impression that Democrats who didn't support her wouldn't get support back, that is just absurd.

We want to add that DWS wasn't in Hillary's camp from the start, while we're pretending we don't know what happens in politics?

GH, only naïve person in this thread is you and your conspiracy theories about Clinton. You have nothing but your baseless claims and refusal to accept that Sanders lost.


Yeah me and Politico with our wild conspiracy theories. I'm trying to help prevent Democrats from walking into a bloodbath they seem blind to but you all are stubborn as hell to even admit that if a Republican were doing what Hillary is with campaign finance, Democrats would be screaming from the rafters, but their blind loyalty has them defending it.

On May 05 2016 03:35 zeo wrote:
On May 05 2016 03:28 farvacola wrote:
The notion that Hillary will have a difficult time beating Trump in the General is hilariously off-base. I already can't wait for November

Can someone with TL+ check what farvacola said about Trump's chances in the primaries around November/December?


Pretty sure xDaunt and I were the first ones to say Trump would win the Republican primary. Everyone else (I think) was still speculating he wouldn't get it just a month or so ago.

Watch as the same folks ignore us again on Trump's chances in the general.

Still waiting for that evidence.

And xDaunt's record isn't that great, he was pretty convinced Romney would sweep.
And a month ago? Dude a month ago we all knew Bernie was dead and Trump would have a large delegate lead, the only question was if he would clinch or not.


There was no question he would clinch really, just media propaganda pushing the possibility he wouldn't. It's long been obvious Trump was more likely to clinch than Clinton, the media however, had a very different narrative. One great example is that the Media has said the D race has been over since March yet it's the one going to the convention, while they've been feeding you all the narrative that Republicans we're probably not going to have a nominee before the convention.

If folks haven't picked up on the propaganda yet it's hard to believe they are really paying attention.


Lol. Of course it's going to the convention. Sanders could have 0 pledged delegates and no mathematical way of winning, as long as he was "still in the race", it would only get decided at the convention. That Sanders is too stubborn (or delusional) to drop out doesn't mean he has a snowball's chance in hell of actually winning. But he can (and apparently will) drag it out as long as he likes (until his hopes are dashed at the actual convention).
LegalLord
Profile Blog Joined April 2013
United States13779 Posts
May 04 2016 19:29 GMT
#74732
Bernie does have at least a little bit of leverage for the convention. He's not going to win the nomination, that much is essentially guaranteed by now. However, his somewhat left-of-Hillary policies do seem to be at least broadly supported by the base. He has the majority of support from the groups that Hillary would like to gain more support from, young voters and independents. He has a reasonably strong argument for Hillary pushing her platform somewhat to the left, and possibly nominating a VP who will get the kinds of voters that Bernie was popular with.

Personally I think and hope he'll cut it off by the last primary and not take it to the convention, and strike some sort of deal in which he gets to play a part in the campaign and policy of Clinton's run, but that he also concedes the nomination to Hillary.
History will sooner or later sweep the European Union away without mercy.
{CC}StealthBlue
Profile Blog Joined January 2003
United States41117 Posts
May 04 2016 19:29 GMT
#74733
Donald Trump sewed up the GOP nomination Tuesday despite the clear dangers he poses to his party in November. Polls show him deeply vulnerable against Hillary Clinton, and he could cost Republicans the Senate and, according to some analyses, put their House majority in peril.

But the longer term threat Trump poses to the GOP is in some ways more vexing. After a Trump drubbing, the party could very well be in the exact same position it found itself in in 2008 and 2012, re-litigating a core question: Is the GOP losing because its candidates aren't conservative enough -- or because it's banking on a narrow, white constituency that is being eclipsed by a growing minority population?

"There was hope there would be some clarity in this election. My fear is that by nominating Trump we may not have that clarity," says Republican strategist Brian Walsh. "There were some Republicans who were saying when it was between Trump and Cruz that we would rather lose with Cruz, and at least put to rest this false narrative that we lost because the nominee wasn’t conservative enough."

In failing to stop Trump, the Republican Party may just exacerbate the civil war its been engaged in for most of the last decade.

"We might see a second autopsy only this time it might really be over a dead body," joked Norm Ornstein, a political commentator and resident scholar at the American Enterprise Institute. "You are going to see a real struggle for control over the Republican Party."

Now, especially with Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) officially out of the race, the argument from the right flank of the party will echo choruses coming from the likes of Erick Erickson and Rush Limbaugh in 2008 and 2012: If only Republicans had only nominated a true conservative, a consistent anti-abortion neocon with an impressive history of holding the conservative line on everything from immigration to government spending, the GOP could have won.


Source
"Smokey, this is not 'Nam, this is bowling. There are rules."
CannonsNCarriers
Profile Joined April 2010
United States638 Posts
Last Edited: 2016-05-04 19:33:42
May 04 2016 19:32 GMT
#74734
I am looking up contested Democratic party conventions. Not seeing any concessions in the 1968 or 1980 ones. Losers got the boot and rallied behind the winner.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1968_Democratic_National_Convention

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1980_Democratic_National_Convention

EDIT: Per above, all of Bernie's leverage comes from him being able to offer avoiding a contested convention. If he forces the vote and loses, all of that evaporates.
Dun tuch my cheezbrgr
GreenHorizons
Profile Blog Joined April 2011
United States24139 Posts
Last Edited: 2016-05-04 19:41:55
May 04 2016 19:36 GMT
#74735
On May 05 2016 04:32 CannonsNCarriers wrote:
I am looking up contested Democratic party conventions. Not seeing any concessions in the 1968 or 1980 ones. Losers got the boot and rallied behind the winner.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1968_Democratic_National_Convention

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1980_Democratic_National_Convention

EDIT: Per above, all of Bernie's leverage comes from him being able to offer avoiding a contested convention. If he forces the vote and loses, all of that evaporates.


Just go back to 2008.

Edit: I should say it as, regardless of what Bernie does, his delegates aren't just going to blindly vote for a platform written by Hillary supporters.
"People like to look at history and think 'If that was me back then, I would have...' We're living through history, and the truth is, whatever you are doing now is probably what you would have done then" "Scratch a Liberal..."
CannonsNCarriers
Profile Joined April 2010
United States638 Posts
May 04 2016 19:41 GMT
#74736
On May 05 2016 04:36 GreenHorizons wrote:
Show nested quote +
On May 05 2016 04:32 CannonsNCarriers wrote:
I am looking up contested Democratic party conventions. Not seeing any concessions in the 1968 or 1980 ones. Losers got the boot and rallied behind the winner.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1968_Democratic_National_Convention

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1980_Democratic_National_Convention

EDIT: Per above, all of Bernie's leverage comes from him being able to offer avoiding a contested convention. If he forces the vote and loses, all of that evaporates.


Just go back to 2008.


That is legitimately the worst example you could cite. Hillary conceded before the convention. Check out what she said and the grace with which she said it:

The way to continue our fight now, to accomplish the goals for which we stand is to take our energy, our passion, our strength, and do all we can to help elect Barack Obama, the next president of the United States.

Today, as I suspend my campaign, I congratulate him on the victory he has won and the extraordinary race he has run. I endorse him and throw my full support behind him.

And I ask all of you to join me in working as hard for Barack Obama as you have for me.


http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2008/jun/07/hillaryclinton.uselections20081


Dun tuch my cheezbrgr
Introvert
Profile Joined April 2011
United States5001 Posts
Last Edited: 2016-05-04 19:48:31
May 04 2016 19:47 GMT
#74737
People saying Trump wouldn't win the nom were doing so in spite of the data. It was a safe bet when he announced, but when he wasn't gone before Iowa, it became clear he would be a contender.

Saying Trump will get blown out in Nov is in line with the data.
"But, as the conservative understands it, modification of the rules should always reflect, and never impose, a change in the activities and beliefs of those who are subject to them, and should never on any occasion be so great as to destroy the ensemble."
Jaaaaasper
Profile Blog Joined April 2012
United States10225 Posts
May 04 2016 19:48 GMT
#74738
Sanders fans making #dropouthillary trending lol. Shes winning, shes the favorite to win the national election, why do they think she should drop out? Bernie Bots do realize that all their doing is helping Trump and negating Sanders' chances to have a impact on the presidential platform right?
Hey do you want to hear a joke? Chinese production value. | I thought he had a aegis- Ayesee | When did 7ing mad last have a good game, 2012?
Plansix
Profile Blog Joined April 2011
United States60190 Posts
Last Edited: 2016-05-04 19:55:04
May 04 2016 19:50 GMT
#74739
On May 05 2016 04:47 Introvert wrote:
People saying Trump wouldn't win the nom were doing so in spite of the data. It was a safe net when he announced, but when he wasn't gone before Iowa, it became clear he would be a contender.

Saying Trump will get blown out in Nov is in line with the data.

Yes, it should be noted that Trump was polling well when everyone was saying it was based on name recognition, not reality. People couldn’t believe the number and attempted to find some reason to back up what they assumed was not true. But the simple answer was Trump was winning and polling well.

The numbers for the general election have not changed. Trump poll numbers are terrible in most of the battle ground states.

On May 05 2016 04:48 Jaaaaasper wrote:
Sanders fans making #dropouthillary trending lol. Shes winning, shes the favorite to win the national election, why do they think she should drop out? Bernie Bots do realize that all their doing is helping Trump and negating Sanders' chances to have a impact on the presidential platform right?


Because twitter is a useless, easily manipulated platform.
I have the Honor to be your Obedient Servant, P.6
TL+ Member
Sermokala
Profile Blog Joined November 2010
United States14157 Posts
May 04 2016 19:51 GMT
#74740
On May 05 2016 04:41 CannonsNCarriers wrote:
Show nested quote +
On May 05 2016 04:36 GreenHorizons wrote:
On May 05 2016 04:32 CannonsNCarriers wrote:
I am looking up contested Democratic party conventions. Not seeing any concessions in the 1968 or 1980 ones. Losers got the boot and rallied behind the winner.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1968_Democratic_National_Convention

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1980_Democratic_National_Convention

EDIT: Per above, all of Bernie's leverage comes from him being able to offer avoiding a contested convention. If he forces the vote and loses, all of that evaporates.


Just go back to 2008.


That is legitimately the worst example you could cite. Hillary conceded before the convention. Check out what she said and the grace with which she said it:

The way to continue our fight now, to accomplish the goals for which we stand is to take our energy, our passion, our strength, and do all we can to help elect Barack Obama, the next president of the United States.

Today, as I suspend my campaign, I congratulate him on the victory he has won and the extraordinary race he has run. I endorse him and throw my full support behind him.

And I ask all of you to join me in working as hard for Barack Obama as you have for me.


http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2008/jun/07/hillaryclinton.uselections20081



And she did that to prevent some of her delegates that refused to vote for obama from voting for her for the presidential nomination. How is it going to play if 30-40% of the room is hostile to the nominee? No one is going to be motivated for the fall and the general campaign will collapse at the starting blocks.
A wise man will say that he knows nothing. We're gona party like its 2752 Hail Dark Brandon
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