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On February 14 2016 08:30 Plansix wrote:
The court can't function with eight, because if they tie, the lower decision holds, but without the ruling of the higher court. A case with the same issues will work its way up again when there is a full court.
He is going to nomination someone and they are going to get confirmed. This isn't anything. Justices have died during elections before. Obama was elected for 4 years, his term isn't up. The average confirmation of a justice took 74 days, he has over 300 left.
Attempting to hold it up until after the election is political suicide, just like the government shut down. It will be on every news segment, every day until the seat is filled.
given that his nominations in general have been stalled a historically long time, idk.
ultimately though, i envision the republicans stalling as a show to appease the more zealous parts of the party, then agreeing with a grumble
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The longest it has ever taken a justice to be confirmed is 125 days. It is political suicide for the GOP to block the nomination until after the elections. It will be the only thing they talk about in every senate and house election this season, the unprecedented obstruction of the political process that is ongoing. CNN will make a daily segment about it. They might as well just give the senate to the Democrats.
Obama is going to appoint another justice, its going to happen. Or the GOP is really the tire fire they seem like.
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On February 14 2016 08:30 Plansix wrote:
The court can't function with eight, because if they tie, the lower decision holds, but without the ruling of the higher court. A case with the same issues will work its way up again when there is a full court.
He is going to nomination someone and they are going to get confirmed. This isn't anything new. Justices have died during elections before. Obama was elected for 4 years, his term isn't up. The average confirmation of a justice took 74 days, he has over 300 left.
Attempting to hold it up until after the election is political suicide, just like the government shut down. It will be on every news segment, every day until the seat is filled.
They have held up the most routine nominations to the point where the Administrative Office had to publicly shame them into doing their job.
This one has actual major importance. They will dig a hole so deep they will reach China lol.
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On February 14 2016 08:37 Plansix wrote:
The longest it has ever taken a justice to be confirmed is 125 days. It is political suicide for the GOP to block the nomination until after the elections. It will be the only thing they talk about in every senate and house election this season, the unprecedented obstruction of the political process that is ongoing. CNN will make a daily segment about it. They might as well just give the senate to the Democrats.
Obama is going to appoint another justice, its going to happen. Or the GOP is really the tire fire they seem like.
Took you a while but you finally got there.
You guys are definitely watching a different election process than I am.
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ya i totally agree
if anything, this is damage control by the republicans. they have to stall long enough for their constituents and the rightside to not be pissed, but cant stall too long or the general electorate will turn on them. mcconnell,.. he may have made a blunder. this wasnt a hill to die on, but he clearly made it one.
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This may help Republicans if another SCOTUS appointment by this administration makes people more interested in having the court "balanced" by the appointments of a Republican president.
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House and Senate seats are coming up and Republicans already look bad with Trump as the front-runner. I don't think they'll go full retard.
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There is going to be a lot of talk about doing it. Then they are going to look at the polls in the threatened seats and see it is going to be just like shutting down the government. And Obama is just going to throw super qualified candidates at them. He starts the process. The GOP will have to make up reasons why they can't hold hearings and confirm the nominee. And deal with the Democrat half of the senate.
Its not going to happen because Obama starts the process, not them. They will have to actively stop it for a full year, which has never happened.
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On February 14 2016 08:11 Introvert wrote:Show nested quote +On February 14 2016 08:24 kwizach wrote:On February 14 2016 08:11 Introvert wrote:On February 14 2016 08:10 Mohdoo wrote:
My jaw dropped when I read it. Oh my god. What does this mean? Can Obama appoint a replacement? IMO unlikely, even if I wish it so. The interesting thing to note here is that there is absolutely no actual reason why this should be the case, except for you wanting to hijack the normal process to ensure your ideological positions prevail. Says the person who called it a great day for America. These seats obviously matter, and are obviously political. So yeah, I want a conservative appointed (or at least a moderate) over a liberal.
I know you do. My point is that you are not only hoping for it not to be a liberal, but you are actually wishing for the normal process not to happen.
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First rumor as a replacement: Jeh Johnson.
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On February 14 2016 08:42 Plansix wrote:
There is going to be a lot of talk about doing it. Then they are going to look at the polls in the threatened seats and see it is going to be just like shutting down the government. And Obama is just going to throw super qualified candidates at them. He starts the process. The GOP will have to make up reasons why they can't hold hearings and confirm the nominee. And deal with the Democrat half of the senate.
The GOP can look all the want. If Cruz takes the tea party for another ride then it doesn't matter when the establishment wants.
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On February 14 2016 08:45 Gorsameth wrote:Show nested quote +On February 14 2016 08:42 Plansix wrote:
There is going to be a lot of talk about doing it. Then they are going to look at the polls in the threatened seats and see it is going to be just like shutting down the government. And Obama is just going to throw super qualified candidates at them. He starts the process. The GOP will have to make up reasons why they can't hold hearings and confirm the nominee. And deal with the Democrat half of the senate. The GOP can look all the want. If Cruz takes the tea party for another ride then it doesn't matter when the establishment wants.
The establishment controls the Senate, not the tea party. And they don't control it by much.
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The look of total defeat on Lindsay's face says it all. They are desperately hoping Obama puts someone like Orin Hatch up. Good luck with that.
This is going to get really ugly.
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Here's what I want to see happening:
Rubio ends up being the nomination to run for president.
Cruz leads the Republicans all the way down the rabbit hole by trying to block Obamas suggestion creating the worst possible scenario for Republicans.
At this point Trump just says fuck it all and runs as independent.
Bloomberg runs as independent as well because when if not during those times.
One out of Hillary/Bernie runs as the democrat nomation.
One can dream
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I think Obama should just nominate a slightly liberal leaning moderate and then the GOP can try to not look like total asshats if they attempt to stall the nomination.
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Obama should go full 0 fucks given. Make his announcements in the form of jigsaw (from saw) videos. Let the games begin.
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I really want Cruz to bring up Trump saying that his super lib (in the context of abortion at least) sister would be a great justice. That would be something to see in this context.
On February 14 2016 08:45 kwizach wrote:Show nested quote +On February 14 2016 08:11 Introvert wrote:On February 14 2016 08:24 kwizach wrote:On February 14 2016 08:11 Introvert wrote:On February 14 2016 08:10 Mohdoo wrote:
My jaw dropped when I read it. Oh my god. What does this mean? Can Obama appoint a replacement? IMO unlikely, even if I wish it so. The interesting thing to note here is that there is absolutely no actual reason why this should be the case, except for you wanting to hijack the normal process to ensure your ideological positions prevail. Says the person who called it a great day for America. These seats obviously matter, and are obviously political. So yeah, I want a conservative appointed (or at least a moderate) over a liberal. I know you do. My point is that you are not only hoping for it not to be a liberal, but you are actually wishing for the normal process not to happen.
It would be the normal process, just delayed 
I mean obviously if this happened in October, there's only a slim chance Obama gets his choice (unless the Republicans thought they were going to lose the Senate and thus an even bigger leftist would be appointed). A new president might have a new choice and a new majority, and could theoretically get someone even worse.
But at this point what I'm hoping for is a real fight to get someone more in the middle. I fear the GOP may not even do that.
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United States44288 Posts
Just heard the Scalia news on the radio. I rate it a perfect 0 RIPs out of 7. Today is a great day for marginalized Americans.
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But at this point what I'm hoping for is a real fight to get someone more in the middle.
The only chance at that was complete and total capitulation and them suggesting someone Obama couldn't refuse. They decided not to go that route.
But given Obama's habit of negotiating with himself, you'll probably get a more moderate person nominated in another failed attempt at bipartisanship.
Be happy with that and tell your representative to be too or it's only going to get worse.
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plus aren't there gonna be 2-3 spots opening up during the next president's term? this could be a huge liberal swing if Obama gets an appointment AND HRC/Bernie gets another 2. Although RBG is one of them so it wouldn't be a 1:1 liberal/conservative swap
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EPT
