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On March 27 2009 02:12 Roffles wrote:
Any given night though, someone might pull something out of their ass and scratch out a win. But in regards to ZvZ, Lux > Effort = Savior > Hoejja. Lux I believe is in his own world just a tier below Jaedong in regards to ZvZ.
nope, thats just not accurate. Effort is better at zvz than savior is, and for a while he was the second best zvz behind jaedong.
Its roughly Lux >= Effort > Savior > Hoejja
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I don't see SkyHigh sniping Jaedong without using some cheesy build (Jaedong destroyed him twice in standard games in MSL qualifiers), and I think Jaedong will be more prepared for such an occurrence this time. I agree with whoever said Iris is CJ's best shot to take out Jaedong.
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just the theory behind this matchup is going to make it so exciting.
one team with the golioth S-class progamer of the day, playing some of the best starcraft ever.
on the other hand, the well round, experienced team, that has won the most in WL with their depth and the variety of their makeup.
this is just a matter of Jaedong is in the pocket on that 1 night. if he is, there will be trouble. CJ needs a couple epic cheese ready to down him if it looks like he isnt blinking or something. be prepared to see some sick- well aged cheese tomorrow night.
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That is a sick OP. I guess I'm rooting for...hm. I don't know.
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Man, if you're the CJ coach, how do you play this? Oh sure, Effort is a lost cause (his ZvZ is good, but so was Luxury's, and Jaedong will be prepared for ZvZ); that's a given. Putting Effort on the block was the right idea. You don't lose much if he's gone, but imagine what happens if he wins.
OK, enough CJ fantasy land; back to reality. Effort's toast. But then what? How do you stop Jaedong?
Sin Chupung-Ryeong has a TvZ bias, so I'd guess that either SkyHigh or Iris is coming out for that one. Unfortunately, you're not playing any old Zerg; you're playing Jaedong. Jaedong is 3-2 on this map vT. He's never played Iris or SkyHigh on this map, so there's that small comfort.
Should Jaedong progress past that, then you're in real trouble. Andromeda is not the kind of map you want to play Jaedong on. It has a PvZ bias by record, and Jaedong is 3-4 on this map. But two of those were against Bisu... and CJ doesn't have Bisu. Jaedong's crushed both Iris and Memory on this map, so don't even think of putting them in. Much might be their best chance on this map, but his record shows that he's terrible at this map. Even so, it's either Much or Iris/SkyHigh (whichever one didn't go in on Sin).
If Jaedong gets to the fourth map, it really doesn't matter whether Jaedong all-kills or not; the match itself is over. There's no way any particular CJ player will be able to reverse-all-kill the rest of OZ. And I'm sure the OZ coach will have people prepared to tackle SkyHigh, Iris, and Much (the most likely players to stop Jaedong. Savior is good, but his ZvZ just can't hang with Jaedong's).
So, what happens if Jaedong gets sniped on Andromeda? It rather depends on who did the sniping, and this is one more reason not to use Much there. If Much snipes him, Hiya will come in and utterly crush him on RH3; there's no way Much can survive on that map. If Iris/SkyHigh is the one to take him down, that's quite a bit better for CJ. I don't like Hiya's chances in TvT on RH3 (Light beat him there recently), and Lomo is even worse, with three losses TvT on RH3. And you absolutely cannot put a Protoss player on RH3; that's suicide. So you can expect it to be 2-2 in game 5.
At that point, OZ is in trouble. It has to be BackHo; PvT is his best match, but he's also been on the shelf for several months. If he's on form, OZ goes up 3-2. If not, OZ is dead, as neither Hiya nor Lomo have a good TvT record.
If BackHo wins, then the CJ coaches have a choice. They can send Much in; his PvP is better than BackHo's, so they can look to a win there. Or they can send Savior in to crush him. If they use Savior, then OZ will counter with Hiya on Destination, a strong TvZ match against a strong TvZ player. If they use Much, OZ will again counter with Hiya, who's strongest match is TvP. Of course, that's also Much's strongest match, so there's that.
So the Jaedong strategy does have its strong points. Obviously, Jaedong must kill at least 2 for OZ to have a chance. If Jaedong does progress all the way to RH3, CJ probably has to use Savior. Why? Because CJ must assume that whoever they put up on that map wins, so that person will need to be able to pull an all-kill against the non-Jaedong parts of OZ. With both SkyHigh and Iris (presumably) killed already, who else on CJ can do it? They have to put up the player who can all-kill, and that's Savior.
Um, Effort and Iris, and one of the CJ toss if they train specifically for the matchup.
Jaedong will also be training ZvZ, as part of the runup to the OSL semifinal. The only way Effort will win is with a straight-up build-order win. And even that's hard to do against Jaedong (which is why he's almost 80% ZvZ).
I'm expecting CJ's quartet to consist of Effort, Skyhigh, Iris, and Savior (with the ever-present possibility of a surprise appearance by Much).
I wouldn't put Iris on Andromeda. Oh, Iris has skills, don't get me wrong, but Jaedong's just too good in ZvT on Andromeda. Much isn't quite as good as Iris, but if he trains a special anti-Jaedong build on Andromeda (watch every Jaedong vs. Bisu on Andromeda and do what Bisu does. Well, except for that one time Bisu let Jaedong into his main with 7 'lings; don't do that), he could come out with a crucial snipe.
Jaedong must be sniped by the end of Andromeda for CJ to have a chance. SkyHigh has a shot on Sin, but I think Much would be a stronger opponent for Jaedong.
What's my prediction? Well, I want a Jaedong all-kill, but I'd be a fool to expect that. Instead, I'm going for this:
 Jaedong > EffOrt (no surprise)
Jaedong >  sKyHigh
Iris > Jaedong
Iris > Lomo
 BackHo > Iris
sAviOr > BackHo
sAviOr > HiyA
Iris gets MVP for sniping Jaedong, and Savior takes the ACE match.
Alternatively:
Jaedong > EffOrt
Jaedong > sKyHigh
Jaedong > Iris
sAviOr > Jaedong
sAviOr > HiyA
sAviOr > Lomo
sAviOr > BackHo
That would make for a hell of a night. It's not going to happen; there's know way that Jaedong will lose to Savior, but if he does...
These are all dangerous opponents, and any one of them could break out and execute a triple kill or all kill.
Savior maybe. He's been pretty hot recently (only his ZvZ play let him down), and he certainly has the chops to do an all-kill.
The bad thing about Oz is that if Jaedong loses, Oz will lose, especially since ForGG is gone
Not true. If Jaedong only kills 1, OZ is toast. If Jaedong kills 2, OZ has a chance. If Jaedong kills 3, then OZ wins (though Savior may be able to pull the all-kill himself, which would be absolutely epic).
Of course, if Jaedong loses to Effort... OZ may as well just leave right then.
does cj have a better snipe team then, forgg, luxury, flash??
Um, yes.
Jaedong utterly owned fOrGG; he predicted every mouse click fOrGG made and directed him into Jaedong's trap.
Luxury may be the #2 Zerg, but no Zerg can snipe Jaedong.
Flash makes a good Jaedong sniper, and he nearly did the job. But one man does not make a "snipe team".
I'd put my money on SkyHigh, Iris, and Savior on those maps more than fOrGG, Luxury, and Flash for Jaedong-snipers.
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JaedOz fighting!
I think CJ will win though.
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Wonder if I can get away with this... IdrA all kill? =P
I can see Iris playing on Chupong
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idk i got a really good feeling about effort today
My prediction Effort > Jaedong
and heres hoping to another kwanroll 
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...I'm just going to put this out there
KTF his ALOT more high calibre players on its lineup than CJ
(..ok..i exaggerated a bit)
But with the reigning MSL champ, and the Areana MSL champ as well as Flash, KTF's lineup last week was pretty scary. Hoejja, being the baller he is took down BISU of all people...and took out Canata for the 2 kill. Pretty scary stuff. But Jaedong took one look, laughed and proceeded to punch each and everyone of them in the balls.
KTF's lineup last week was absoultly baller, and i think only Jaedong..(or possibly Bisu) could have completed that allkill.
I dont think CJ's lineup can compare to KTF's. I mean..
Savior - im on the fence with him. A ro16 MSL run is good. But Jaedong is in the OSL semi's..>.<
EffOrt - Potential. But i really havent seen him in a while. Last time i checked his ZvZ was mediocre. NOT the top tier it takes to take down the Legend Killer
Kwanro - His set vs stork was impressive, but still. Stork's PvZ is his worst MU. At least take him down...
Movie, Much CJ toss lineup - ....slumpin, old and whothefuck is Nbs?
outside of Skyhigh i see no possibility of a CJ snipe.
scratch that..maybe Iris...But still. JD > ForGG..& Flash
Flash > Iris
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JD > effort
Skyhigh is gonna scv rush jd and take the game 
after that CJ wins 4-1 :D
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United States13896 Posts
XerO, trying to judge how well two teams will do in team leagues according to each player's success in individual leagues is an exercise in futility. Frankly I'm stunned how KTF added fOrGG (who has been horrible lately, and was 0-4 in WL) and all of the sudden they're the stronger team "by far" compared to CJ.
I also find it hilarious that HoeJJa beats Bisu on a gimmick build and all of the sudden he's the new zerg phenom. EffOrt's ZvZ being "mediocre"? You don't get a 60%+ winning percentage from being mediocre in the matchup.
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seriously...after last weeks rape and CJ's team is like KTF's with more depth but less talent... I think its a given If Jaedong is still on his A game he's gonna all kill.
CJ - Iris, Much, Savior, Effort, Skyhigh
does not compare to
KTF - Flash, Forgg, Luxury.
I think its going to take some kind of epic snipe to take out JD. And no, i don't think Iris can take out JD. After seeing JD beating SK Terran Flash on RH3 and Forgg Flash mech on Medusa it just seems unfathomable that Iris can snipe JD in a standard game unless its some epic Skyhigh cheese. And i don't think JD will fall for the same thing twice.
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you guys need to stop leaving out movie
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I think everyone seems to be missing a key element here. CJ specifically added Hydra to the lineup right before this match. Even if he doesn't actually play, you've got to wonder if Oz is watching this guy.
EDIT: Although it would be a really bad idea for your first game to be a clutch win in the WL Finals.
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Effort looks like larva labor Zerg.
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On March 26 2009 16:11 p4NDemik wrote:Show nested quote +On March 26 2009 16:06 TarsTarkas wrote:
I like the effort you put into the predictions, but why would OZ play Dongrae instead of Lomo? Because they're equally worthless and I think it would be funnier if Dongrae played.
oh ok, thats fair.
Awesome OP
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United States12607 Posts
On March 27 2009 04:32 p4NDemik wrote:
I also find it hilarious that HoeJJa beats Bisu on a gimmick build and all of the sudden he's the new zerg phenom.
The burrowed lings were cute, but not a game-breaker. HoeJJa played an excellent game to follow up the tiny advantage he won with those lings. All that said, I totally agree that HoeJJa is merely a mediocre player who had a ton of time to practice and played particularly well (as opposed to a brilliant player who is about to make it big in BW).
Also I'm glad you got to put up this OP, p4ND: with all the great OPs you've put up for CJ over the course of this season, you deserved it.
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Nice OP, thanks demik/fontong.
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The balance of this match rests with by.hero
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Roffles
Pitcairn19291 Posts
On March 27 2009 05:04 Nylan wrote:
The balance of this match rests with by.hero
Actually, this could hold true. How Jaedong fares in WL Finals might have something to do with how he does the night before in the OSL Semis. If he sweeps 3-0, he'll have good momentum going into the WL Finals. On the other hand, if he loses the BO5 in his best MU, then he might easily get discouraged.
On paper, Jaedong has the skill to all kill. But psychologically speaking, there's more to it than what comes on paper. Nerves, momentum, hype, and other factors play into a game like this.
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EPT
