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On June 01 2012 08:36 MetalPanda wrote:Show nested quote +On June 01 2012 08:33 Mortality wrote:On June 01 2012 06:37 brolaf wrote:On June 01 2012 04:10 Kiett wrote:On June 01 2012 03:40 toopham wrote:
When he beat flash peak, 2443, tell me He doesn't need to. Flash peaked at 2443 when there were still 3 leagues active. Now there's only 1.4, and barely that. That's like saying, "Flash sucks, let me know when he beats Bisu's 63-win PL record." He's never going to, because it's literally not possible. PL just doesn't have enough rounds and games. Grats Fantasy <3 i dont think ElO has decay does it.. so if he wins enough games, he will get his elo, even if the games are spaced out I'm pretty sure that even if Fantasy wins every single BW game until BW is no longer played it is still mathematically impossible for him to achieve Flash's record. Also, the ease through which you climb the ELO ratings over a given length of time depends largely on the number of games being played. When you consider that nobody can stay on top forever, that matters a lot in determining ELO ratings. Fantasy has reached his peak right now. Over a 6 month period he has won better than 90% of his games. I'm pretty sure not even Flash has ever done this. But over the same length of time, Flash would have a higher ELO because of more games played at a win percentage almost as high. No **** there? over 90% in a 6 month period???
19/21 = .90476 or in other words 90.5%
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Fantasy vs Flash OSL Finals, last battle for the universe!
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United Arab Emirates5090 Posts
yea fantasy been playing really good for so long, such consistency.
lol at bisu sitting on 3rd, let the hate begin.
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Congrats Fantasy your hard work has paid off keep it up!
Bisu third such a good time 
T1 fighting!
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On June 01 2012 10:55 Mortality wrote:Show nested quote +On June 01 2012 08:36 MetalPanda wrote:On June 01 2012 08:33 Mortality wrote:On June 01 2012 06:37 brolaf wrote:On June 01 2012 04:10 Kiett wrote:On June 01 2012 03:40 toopham wrote:
When he beat flash peak, 2443, tell me He doesn't need to. Flash peaked at 2443 when there were still 3 leagues active. Now there's only 1.4, and barely that. That's like saying, "Flash sucks, let me know when he beats Bisu's 63-win PL record." He's never going to, because it's literally not possible. PL just doesn't have enough rounds and games. Grats Fantasy <3 i dont think ElO has decay does it.. so if he wins enough games, he will get his elo, even if the games are spaced out I'm pretty sure that even if Fantasy wins every single BW game until BW is no longer played it is still mathematically impossible for him to achieve Flash's record. Also, the ease through which you climb the ELO ratings over a given length of time depends largely on the number of games being played. When you consider that nobody can stay on top forever, that matters a lot in determining ELO ratings. Fantasy has reached his peak right now. Over a 6 month period he has won better than 90% of his games. I'm pretty sure not even Flash has ever done this. But over the same length of time, Flash would have a higher ELO because of more games played at a win percentage almost as high. No **** there? over 90% in a 6 month period??? 19/21 = .90476 or in other words 90.5%
Flash went 20/21 from christmas to mid-february 2011 and 15-0 in August 2010 (incuding 4 consecutive wins over fantasy). If anything maintaining that sort of winrate over a shorter period of time is harder due to less preparation and leagues running simultaneously. Even in 2012 Flash was looking like he'd go undefeated throughout proleague but they ended up with similar records. Congrats to Fantasy but don't kid yourselves that barely getting ahead on ELO after years of trailing means he's in any way matched flash's achievements. If anything he's just in peak form atm and is still only one ezmode OSL group ahead. Beating Flash in 1 game doesn't mean that much considering the history between the two (Flash 13-6 H2H). I really hope they meet in a Bo5 one last time because that will really decide the best player of 2012.
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Bisutopia19141 Posts
On June 01 2012 11:24 Scarecrow wrote:Show nested quote +On June 01 2012 10:55 Mortality wrote:On June 01 2012 08:36 MetalPanda wrote:On June 01 2012 08:33 Mortality wrote:On June 01 2012 06:37 brolaf wrote:On June 01 2012 04:10 Kiett wrote:On June 01 2012 03:40 toopham wrote:
When he beat flash peak, 2443, tell me He doesn't need to. Flash peaked at 2443 when there were still 3 leagues active. Now there's only 1.4, and barely that. That's like saying, "Flash sucks, let me know when he beats Bisu's 63-win PL record." He's never going to, because it's literally not possible. PL just doesn't have enough rounds and games. Grats Fantasy <3 i dont think ElO has decay does it.. so if he wins enough games, he will get his elo, even if the games are spaced out I'm pretty sure that even if Fantasy wins every single BW game until BW is no longer played it is still mathematically impossible for him to achieve Flash's record. Also, the ease through which you climb the ELO ratings over a given length of time depends largely on the number of games being played. When you consider that nobody can stay on top forever, that matters a lot in determining ELO ratings. Fantasy has reached his peak right now. Over a 6 month period he has won better than 90% of his games. I'm pretty sure not even Flash has ever done this. But over the same length of time, Flash would have a higher ELO because of more games played at a win percentage almost as high. No **** there? over 90% in a 6 month period??? 19/21 = .90476 or in other words 90.5% Flash went 20/21 from christmas to mid-february 2011 and 15-0 in August 2010 (incuding 4 consecutive wins over fantasy). If anything maintaining that sort of winrate over a shorter period of time is harder due to less preparation and leagues running simultaneously. Even in 2012 Flash was looking like he'd go undefeated throughout proleague but they ended up with similar records. Congrats to Fantasy but don't kid yourselves that barely getting ahead on ELO after years of trailing means he's in any way matched flash's achievements. If anything he's just in peak form atm and is still only one ezmode OSL group ahead. Beating Flash in 1 game doesn't mean that much considering the history between the two (Flash 13-6 H2H). I really hope they meet in a Bo5 one last time because that will really decide the best player of 2012.
You said something scary without knowing. Will Flash not receive MVP for PL in the next award ceremony?
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On June 01 2012 11:24 Scarecrow wrote:Show nested quote +On June 01 2012 10:55 Mortality wrote:On June 01 2012 08:36 MetalPanda wrote:On June 01 2012 08:33 Mortality wrote:On June 01 2012 06:37 brolaf wrote:On June 01 2012 04:10 Kiett wrote:On June 01 2012 03:40 toopham wrote:
When he beat flash peak, 2443, tell me He doesn't need to. Flash peaked at 2443 when there were still 3 leagues active. Now there's only 1.4, and barely that. That's like saying, "Flash sucks, let me know when he beats Bisu's 63-win PL record." He's never going to, because it's literally not possible. PL just doesn't have enough rounds and games. Grats Fantasy <3 i dont think ElO has decay does it.. so if he wins enough games, he will get his elo, even if the games are spaced out I'm pretty sure that even if Fantasy wins every single BW game until BW is no longer played it is still mathematically impossible for him to achieve Flash's record. Also, the ease through which you climb the ELO ratings over a given length of time depends largely on the number of games being played. When you consider that nobody can stay on top forever, that matters a lot in determining ELO ratings. Fantasy has reached his peak right now. Over a 6 month period he has won better than 90% of his games. I'm pretty sure not even Flash has ever done this. But over the same length of time, Flash would have a higher ELO because of more games played at a win percentage almost as high. No **** there? over 90% in a 6 month period??? 19/21 = .90476 or in other words 90.5% Flash went 20/21 from christmas to mid-february 2011 and 15-0 in August 2010 (incuding 4 consecutive wins over fantasy). If anything maintaining that sort of winrate over a shorter period of time is harder due to less preparation and leagues running simultaneously. Even in 2012 Flash was looking like he'd go undefeated throughout proleague but they ended up with similar records. Congrats to Fantasy but don't kid yourselves that barely getting ahead on ELO after years of trailing means he's in any way matched flash's achievements. If anything he's just in peak form atm and is still only one ezmode OSL group ahead. Beating Flash in 1 game doesn't mean that much considering the history between the two (Flash 13-6 H2H). I really hope they meet in a Bo5 one last time because that will really decide the best player of 2012.
Don't go getting all butt hurt. I thought it was quite clear that I was discussing ELO (and specifically, why it is probably mathematically impossible at this point for Fantasy to surpass Flash's peak even if he goes 100% until the end of Broodwar), not overall dominance. There is absolutely no question that Flash is the more accomplished player. I never said otherwise.
However, no, you are absolutely wrong in assuming that maintaining a high win percentage over a shorter period of time is more difficult. History has shown us that progamers tend to be very streaky -- and for good reason. Achieving monstrously high win rates requires you to be ahead of the curve in metagame, and the more time that passes the easier it is for other players to break down your metagame, meaning that you have to make new metagame. Your assumption would only be correct if metagame were static -- that is to say if there was absolutely no new timings or strategies left to be discovered!
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On June 01 2012 11:48 Mortality wrote:Show nested quote +On June 01 2012 11:24 Scarecrow wrote:On June 01 2012 10:55 Mortality wrote:On June 01 2012 08:36 MetalPanda wrote:On June 01 2012 08:33 Mortality wrote:On June 01 2012 06:37 brolaf wrote:On June 01 2012 04:10 Kiett wrote:On June 01 2012 03:40 toopham wrote:
When he beat flash peak, 2443, tell me He doesn't need to. Flash peaked at 2443 when there were still 3 leagues active. Now there's only 1.4, and barely that. That's like saying, "Flash sucks, let me know when he beats Bisu's 63-win PL record." He's never going to, because it's literally not possible. PL just doesn't have enough rounds and games. Grats Fantasy <3 i dont think ElO has decay does it.. so if he wins enough games, he will get his elo, even if the games are spaced out I'm pretty sure that even if Fantasy wins every single BW game until BW is no longer played it is still mathematically impossible for him to achieve Flash's record. Also, the ease through which you climb the ELO ratings over a given length of time depends largely on the number of games being played. When you consider that nobody can stay on top forever, that matters a lot in determining ELO ratings. Fantasy has reached his peak right now. Over a 6 month period he has won better than 90% of his games. I'm pretty sure not even Flash has ever done this. But over the same length of time, Flash would have a higher ELO because of more games played at a win percentage almost as high. No **** there? over 90% in a 6 month period??? 19/21 = .90476 or in other words 90.5% Flash went 20/21 from christmas to mid-february 2011 and 15-0 in August 2010 (incuding 4 consecutive wins over fantasy). If anything maintaining that sort of winrate over a shorter period of time is harder due to less preparation and leagues running simultaneously. Even in 2012 Flash was looking like he'd go undefeated throughout proleague but they ended up with similar records. Congrats to Fantasy but don't kid yourselves that barely getting ahead on ELO after years of trailing means he's in any way matched flash's achievements. If anything he's just in peak form atm and is still only one ezmode OSL group ahead. Beating Flash in 1 game doesn't mean that much considering the history between the two (Flash 13-6 H2H). I really hope they meet in a Bo5 one last time because that will really decide the best player of 2012. However, no, you are absolutely wrong in assuming that maintaining a high win percentage over a shorter period of time is more difficult. History has shown us that progamers tend to be very streaky -- and for good reason. Achieving monstrously high win rates requires you to be ahead of the curve in metagame, and the more time that passes the easier it is for other players to break down your metagame, meaning that you have to make new metagame. Your assumption would only be correct if metagame were static -- that is to say if there was absolutely no new timings or strategies left to be discovered!
I know which Fantasy would prefer. 21 games spread out or 21 games played over a short period of time in simultaneous leagues. Preparation counts for alot, it gives more time to adjust and come up with new timings/strategies. Especially if you throw in that Flash had to prepare and win ace/osl matches during his peak periods against players who had more time to prepare counters to how he was playing. 19/21 over 6 months (averages at slightly less than 1 game a week, no ace matches, only 1 map to prepare for) is impressive but in no way is it more impressive than similar records over a shorter time period.
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I can't wait for Flash and Fantasy to meet again in a Bo5 this OSL. Yes it will happen.
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On June 01 2012 13:15 J1.au wrote:
I can't wait for Flash and Fantasy to meet again in a Bo5 this OSL. Yes it will happen.
Best way for Fanta to show he is indeed dominant now?
Bo5 wins vs Soulkey, Flash and Jangbi on the way to OSL championship. Ideally with Flash or Jangbi as the championship match.
If he can do 3-0s I WILL BE AMAZED.
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On June 01 2012 12:00 Scarecrow wrote:Show nested quote +On June 01 2012 11:48 Mortality wrote:On June 01 2012 11:24 Scarecrow wrote:On June 01 2012 10:55 Mortality wrote:On June 01 2012 08:36 MetalPanda wrote:On June 01 2012 08:33 Mortality wrote:On June 01 2012 06:37 brolaf wrote:On June 01 2012 04:10 Kiett wrote:On June 01 2012 03:40 toopham wrote:
When he beat flash peak, 2443, tell me He doesn't need to. Flash peaked at 2443 when there were still 3 leagues active. Now there's only 1.4, and barely that. That's like saying, "Flash sucks, let me know when he beats Bisu's 63-win PL record." He's never going to, because it's literally not possible. PL just doesn't have enough rounds and games. Grats Fantasy <3 i dont think ElO has decay does it.. so if he wins enough games, he will get his elo, even if the games are spaced out I'm pretty sure that even if Fantasy wins every single BW game until BW is no longer played it is still mathematically impossible for him to achieve Flash's record. Also, the ease through which you climb the ELO ratings over a given length of time depends largely on the number of games being played. When you consider that nobody can stay on top forever, that matters a lot in determining ELO ratings. Fantasy has reached his peak right now. Over a 6 month period he has won better than 90% of his games. I'm pretty sure not even Flash has ever done this. But over the same length of time, Flash would have a higher ELO because of more games played at a win percentage almost as high. No **** there? over 90% in a 6 month period??? 19/21 = .90476 or in other words 90.5% Flash went 20/21 from christmas to mid-february 2011 and 15-0 in August 2010 (incuding 4 consecutive wins over fantasy). If anything maintaining that sort of winrate over a shorter period of time is harder due to less preparation and leagues running simultaneously. Even in 2012 Flash was looking like he'd go undefeated throughout proleague but they ended up with similar records. Congrats to Fantasy but don't kid yourselves that barely getting ahead on ELO after years of trailing means he's in any way matched flash's achievements. If anything he's just in peak form atm and is still only one ezmode OSL group ahead. Beating Flash in 1 game doesn't mean that much considering the history between the two (Flash 13-6 H2H). I really hope they meet in a Bo5 one last time because that will really decide the best player of 2012. However, no, you are absolutely wrong in assuming that maintaining a high win percentage over a shorter period of time is more difficult. History has shown us that progamers tend to be very streaky -- and for good reason. Achieving monstrously high win rates requires you to be ahead of the curve in metagame, and the more time that passes the easier it is for other players to break down your metagame, meaning that you have to make new metagame. Your assumption would only be correct if metagame were static -- that is to say if there was absolutely no new timings or strategies left to be discovered! I know which Fantasy would prefer. 21 games spread out or 21 games played over a short period of time in simultaneous leagues. Preparation counts for alot, it gives more time to adjust and come up with new timings/strategies. Especially if you throw in that Flash had to prepare and win ace/osl matches during his peak periods against players who had more time to prepare counters to how he was playing. 19/21 over 6 months (averages at slightly less than 1 game a week, no ace matches, only 1 map to prepare for) is impressive but in no way is it more impressive than similar records over a shorter time period.
Flash is probably the absolute best in turning around disadvantageous games. Not that he's not good at planning (he is definitely really good at that) but if there's one thing that Flash can be defined by, it's his ability to negate early game disadvantages through crisis management/calculated risks/superior decisionmaking in order to come out even or ahead in late game.
At his peak Flash was on the losing end of build orders very often. Like, holy shit often. And he still pulled out tons of wins anyway, because he would use his immaculate gamesense, claw his way out of the hole, and do enough to earn a lategame win.
This is exactly the type of player that does absurdly well without that much planning. Sure it hurts, but it probably didn't hurt Flash very much in comparison to the way it hurts other players like Fantasy.
I think you're overstating the effect of lack of planning time given the attributes Flash has.
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Honestly, I really hope for a Flash vs Fantasy finals! That will certainly be what Fantasy be hoping for.
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Doesn't really mean much now that these guys are cutting their BW training time for SC2 imo.
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Fantaaassy! Finally! One of my fave beside flash,Bisu,Jaedong
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Doesn't matter. All BW results after last season's proleague finals are asterisked anyways.
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On June 01 2012 16:26 red4ce wrote:
Doesn't matter. All BW results after last season's proleague finals are asterisked anyways.
fantasy was better than flash up to and during the proleague finals
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On June 01 2012 15:33 MichaelDonovan wrote:
Doesn't really mean much now that these guys are cutting their BW training time for SC2 imo.
One would assume that Fantasy is also losing BW time in favor of SC2, so it's a level playing field regardless. Still impressive.
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On June 01 2012 16:30 Ideas wrote:Show nested quote +On June 01 2012 16:26 red4ce wrote:
Doesn't matter. All BW results after last season's proleague finals are asterisked anyways. fantasy was better than flash up to and during the proleague finals
That must've been why flash won the awards for regular season MVP and most wins -.- Agreed Fantasy beat him in 1 game in the final
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On June 01 2012 16:44 Scarecrow wrote:Show nested quote +On June 01 2012 16:30 Ideas wrote:On June 01 2012 16:26 red4ce wrote:
Doesn't matter. All BW results after last season's proleague finals are asterisked anyways. fantasy was better than flash up to and during the proleague finals That must've been why flash won the awards for regular season MVP and most wins -.- Agreed Fantasy beat him in 1 game in the final
that's true regular season MVP could not possibly ever be wrong
I would argue that fantasy showed more dominance in his games. they both only had 2 losses (flash to 2 protoss, fantasy to 2 terran). fantasy just played less games because his team wasn't as bad as flash's.
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Finally! Fantasy has alwaays been such an underrated player.
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EPT
