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Valhalla18444 Posts
On January 24 2010 10:27 KwarK wrote:Show nested quote +On January 24 2010 10:25 FakeSteve[TPR] wrote:On January 24 2010 10:24 KwarK wrote:On January 24 2010 10:22 FakeSteve[TPR] wrote:On January 24 2010 10:20 KwarK wrote:
FakeSteve, I ran a few simulations in comparable situations and the game was about 20 seconds from ending in those. I don't think Flash had 10%. Flash couldn't hold off the units JD had at the time of the disc, let alone the ones he had 30 seconds later. Pure marines and medics simply cannot kill those numbers of ultralisks. Ever. don't think i'm being rude or personal or anything, but your simulations have literally zero reflection on a professional game hahah I believe I can accurately reflect the incomes of players. I know how many drones JD had at every base but 3. I know how many mineral patches Flash had. That tells me what kind of economy they were working with. Obviously I'm not JD and my opponent wasn't Flash. But could you at least agree that I can create an approximate reproduction of the economy in that game? sure, but why do you think you can create a realistic approximation of the events that would take place had the blackout not happened? Well assuming both players used their resources to make units, the events are predictable. JaeDong makes ultralisks and Flash loses almost immediately. Bw is an economic game. Micro is an important factor but nobodies micro is that good.
you must be of the opinion that the game was 100% over at the time of the blackout. that opinion is wrong, and your simulation still has no relevance
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On January 24 2010 10:30 FakeSteve[TPR] wrote:Show nested quote +On January 24 2010 10:26 Zozma wrote:On January 24 2010 10:24 FakeSteve[TPR] wrote:On January 24 2010 10:23 Zozma wrote:On January 24 2010 10:19 FakeSteve[TPR] wrote:by that logic, no map should be chosen that is not 100% balanced in every matchup since that's frankly impossible... well, imo it should be pretty easy to see why KeSPA shouldn't be considering map balance when making this decision  But a re-game wouldn't be preserving what you call Flash's 10% chance to win- even in the ideal case it would be giving him a 50% chance to win. Now, check my math, but I think that's 40 percentage points of unfair to Jaedong, whereas awarding the game is only 10% unfair to Flash. it's not about making sure the percentages add up. are we gonna award a player a win during a disconnect because he killed one probe compared to the opponent's zero probe kills, therefore the player with the victorious probe has a 51% chance to win? the game was not over But Jaedong was on 5 gas and Flash was quickly being reduced to a mineral-only. That's not anything like a single probe kill. The game WAS over. Sure, there was a chance that Jaedong might have decided to go out for a hamburger, but there's an equal chance that Flash would do the same, and in neither case is it high enough to justify a rematch. ok, i'm gonna repeat this one more time. it is possible for flash to win given the situation that the players were in at the time of the blackout. it's a pretty remote chance, and it would require jaedong to make an error in his decision making, but the winner had not yet been decided, and making a decision based on perceived probabilities and the interest of fairness based on map imbalance and one player's build relying on surprise is a horrible admin decision. In that case I need you to explain to me what kind of decision-making error Jaedong might have made in that situation to lose that game.
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Yep FakeSteve, I can see where you are coming from regarding whether we should take into account the map balance.
Disregarding map balance, don't you still think JD's having such great margin of advantage, to a point of being within minutes of winning if he do not blunder, that replaying will be unfair to him?
My stand is that the awarding JD the game is fair, and would be pretty acceptable to Flash, and had his team and his dad not interfered he would still have the mental strength to finish strong in game 4 and 5.
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On January 24 2010 02:48 JadeFist wrote:
Correct decision. I remember the Phillies won the world series from a game that was rained out in the middle when they were ahead.
Everyone considered it legit.
Wrong. Bud Selig clearly stated that despite the official rules that allow a MLB baseball game to be called if a team is leading after the 5th inning, he would never have "gifted" the Phillies the free win even if the game were called 2-1 for the Phillies after the 5th:
No shortened victory
The game became an official game after the fifth inning. Had umpires stopped it there, with the Phillies leading 2-1, the Phils could have been awarded their trophy.
Selig said that wouldn’t have happened. He said Game 5 will be a nine-inning game.
“It’s not a way to end a World Series,” he said.
http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/headline/sports/6081065.html
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Valhalla18444 Posts
if jaedong had at any time abandoned his 7oclock base in favor of attacking or roaming the map or defending his other expansion from a drop or what have you, that's an opportunity for flash to kill 7. it would require jaedong to be slightly negligent, and for flash to control flawlessly, both of which are not impossibilities. the game being 90% in jaedong's favor as i've said is based on the advantage that jaedong had, and the assumption that jaedong is not a hella bad player who would fall apart.
fakesteve saying jaedong would win that game 90% of the time is still merely conjecture and is not appropriate criteria for an admin decision of this magnitude
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United States4796 Posts
On January 24 2010 08:22 Zack1900 wrote:
I think it should have extended to a best of 7 match up. Neither player was prepared for that and the power outage would have had a lesser effect on the series. They should have been given a chance to talk to each other to decide on the maps that would be played and in what order. If they could not agree on what maps they wanted then the maps should have been decided on by a third party. Seems like the fairest way in my book.
Why has this not been given more attention?
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On January 24 2010 10:35 FakeSteve[TPR] wrote:
if jaedong had at any time abandoned his 7oclock base in favor of attacking or roaming the map or defending his other expansion from a drop or what have you, that's an opportunity for flash to kill 7. it would require jaedong to be slightly negligent, and for flash to control flawlessly, both of which are not impossibilities. the game being 90% in jaedong's favor as i've said is based on the advantage that jaedong had, and the assumption that jaedong is not a hella bad player who would fall apart.
fakesteve saying jaedong would win that game 90% of the time is still merely conjecture and is not appropriate criteria for an admin decision of this magnitude But do you think that he really needed the 7'o'clock base to win the game? It would've still been something like 4 base vs. 1 base after a couple minutes, even if Flash managed to kill 7 o clock.
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I think Kespa made the best possible decision since Jaedong had an huge advantage that nobody can deny. Unfortunately, Flash's team and father got really pissed off (understandably) which delayed the next game for an hour and severely affected Flash's mental state. I think Flash would have played game 4 much better if there hadn't been such drama resulting from Kespa's decision. In fact, it was very possible for Flash to come back and win 3-2.
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On January 24 2010 10:36 El.Divino wrote:Show nested quote +On January 24 2010 08:22 Zack1900 wrote:
I think it should have extended to a best of 7 match up. Neither player was prepared for that and the power outage would have had a lesser effect on the series. They should have been given a chance to talk to each other to decide on the maps that would be played and in what order. If they could not agree on what maps they wanted then the maps should have been decided on by a third party. Seems like the fairest way in my book. Why has this not been given more attention?
My guess is because there is no real precedent for it. I'd agree it would have been an okay solution to help the players gain composure (particularly Flash) to change it to Bo7, but to change it on the spot would be ridiculous, particularly if there was no way the players could know such an action was possible.
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Valhalla18444 Posts
On January 24 2010 10:37 Zozma wrote:Show nested quote +On January 24 2010 10:35 FakeSteve[TPR] wrote:
if jaedong had at any time abandoned his 7oclock base in favor of attacking or roaming the map or defending his other expansion from a drop or what have you, that's an opportunity for flash to kill 7. it would require jaedong to be slightly negligent, and for flash to control flawlessly, both of which are not impossibilities. the game being 90% in jaedong's favor as i've said is based on the advantage that jaedong had, and the assumption that jaedong is not a hella bad player who would fall apart.
fakesteve saying jaedong would win that game 90% of the time is still merely conjecture and is not appropriate criteria for an admin decision of this magnitude But do you think that he really needed the 7'o'clock base to win the game? It would've still been something like 4 base vs. 1 base after a couple minutes, even if Flash managed to kill 7 o clock.
just as flash could have possibly won the game, so could jaedong possibly win the game even if he lost 7. that's completely irrelevant
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United States42685 Posts
On January 24 2010 10:25 FakeSteve[TPR] wrote:Show nested quote +On January 24 2010 10:24 KwarK wrote:On January 24 2010 10:22 FakeSteve[TPR] wrote:On January 24 2010 10:20 KwarK wrote:
FakeSteve, I ran a few simulations in comparable situations and the game was about 20 seconds from ending in those. I don't think Flash had 10%. Flash couldn't hold off the units JD had at the time of the disc, let alone the ones he had 30 seconds later. Pure marines and medics simply cannot kill those numbers of ultralisks. Ever. don't think i'm being rude or personal or anything, but your simulations have literally zero reflection on a professional game hahah I believe I can accurately reflect the incomes of players. I know how many drones JD had at every base but 3. I know how many mineral patches Flash had. That tells me what kind of economy they were working with. Obviously I'm not JD and my opponent wasn't Flash. But could you at least agree that I can create an approximate reproduction of the economy in that game? sure, but why do you think you can create a realistic approximation of the events that would take place had the blackout not happened?
Ok, so now we're happy I can create an accurate representation of what they were mining. In the first minute after the blackout, assuming JaeDong doesn't maynard to 1 or make any more drones at 3 or 7, JaeDong earns 1700 minerals and 1300 gas. He made the same in the second minute.
By comparison, Flash earned 1600 minerals and 450 gas in the first minute and 1300 minerals and 300 gas in the second. It was at this point that his natural mined out (the first crystals had already disappeared in the vod).
I posit that the players being of comparable skill, such as JaeDong and Flash are, that economic difference, most notably the gas, is sufficient to end the game. So even if we ignore stuff like Flash being entirely ill equipped to fight defilers and ultralisks at the same time (which I disagree with) I still don't think it changes the fact that any D+ zerg on icc could have defeated Flash simply by making an ultralisk every 9 seconds.
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On January 24 2010 10:39 FakeSteve[TPR] wrote:Show nested quote +On January 24 2010 10:37 Zozma wrote:On January 24 2010 10:35 FakeSteve[TPR] wrote:
if jaedong had at any time abandoned his 7oclock base in favor of attacking or roaming the map or defending his other expansion from a drop or what have you, that's an opportunity for flash to kill 7. it would require jaedong to be slightly negligent, and for flash to control flawlessly, both of which are not impossibilities. the game being 90% in jaedong's favor as i've said is based on the advantage that jaedong had, and the assumption that jaedong is not a hella bad player who would fall apart.
fakesteve saying jaedong would win that game 90% of the time is still merely conjecture and is not appropriate criteria for an admin decision of this magnitude But do you think that he really needed the 7'o'clock base to win the game? It would've still been something like 4 base vs. 1 base after a couple minutes, even if Flash managed to kill 7 o clock. just as flash could have possibly won the game, so could jaedong possibly win the game even if he lost 7. that's completely irrelevant I don't think it is irrelevant. Your argument is that Flash could have won the game if Jaedong messed up and Flash killed 7oclock. I said that I still don't think Flash would have a chance even if he did kill it.
So could you respond to that?
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On January 24 2010 08:49 TeWy wrote:
Could you please point out some examples of that Baseball thing ? I would like to know what they consider to be a "clear advantage".
The official rule of MLB is that a game can be called a win if a team is leading after the 5th inning and the game is cancelled:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rainout_(sports)
However, the comissioner of MLB would have overruled this rule in the World Series if the game were called when the Phillies were up 2-1 on the Rays:
No shortened victory
The game became an official game after the fifth inning. Had umpires stopped it there, with the Phillies leading 2-1, the Phils could have been awarded their trophy.
Selig said that wouldn’t have happened. He said Game 5 will be a nine-inning game.
“It’s not a way to end a World Series,” he said.
http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/headline/sports/6081065.html
Thus, in MLB, the commissioner (Selig) would never "gift" a win to the team with the advantage - he would force the game to be played out until there was a definite winner.
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Russian Federation4447 Posts
On January 24 2010 10:30 FakeSteve[TPR] wrote:Show nested quote +On January 24 2010 10:27 KwarK wrote:On January 24 2010 10:25 FakeSteve[TPR] wrote:On January 24 2010 10:24 KwarK wrote:On January 24 2010 10:22 FakeSteve[TPR] wrote:On January 24 2010 10:20 KwarK wrote:
FakeSteve, I ran a few simulations in comparable situations and the game was about 20 seconds from ending in those. I don't think Flash had 10%. Flash couldn't hold off the units JD had at the time of the disc, let alone the ones he had 30 seconds later. Pure marines and medics simply cannot kill those numbers of ultralisks. Ever. don't think i'm being rude or personal or anything, but your simulations have literally zero reflection on a professional game hahah I believe I can accurately reflect the incomes of players. I know how many drones JD had at every base but 3. I know how many mineral patches Flash had. That tells me what kind of economy they were working with. Obviously I'm not JD and my opponent wasn't Flash. But could you at least agree that I can create an approximate reproduction of the economy in that game? sure, but why do you think you can create a realistic approximation of the events that would take place had the blackout not happened? Well assuming both players used their resources to make units, the events are predictable. JaeDong makes ultralisks and Flash loses almost immediately. Bw is an economic game. Micro is an important factor but nobodies micro is that good. you must be of the opinion that the game was 100% over at the time of the blackout. that opinion is wrong, and your simulation still has no relevance
Then why did KESPA give Julyzerg the win vs Bisu when it was 99.99% sure July had the game in the bag before Bisu disconnected?
Going by your logic, Bisu wasn't 100% out of the game (didn't GG) so he should have been awarded a regame, which he was not.
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A few minutes later in game 3, Flash GG. BTW I came from the an alternative future.
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Valhalla18444 Posts
On January 24 2010 10:41 Zozma wrote:Show nested quote +On January 24 2010 10:39 FakeSteve[TPR] wrote:On January 24 2010 10:37 Zozma wrote:On January 24 2010 10:35 FakeSteve[TPR] wrote:
if jaedong had at any time abandoned his 7oclock base in favor of attacking or roaming the map or defending his other expansion from a drop or what have you, that's an opportunity for flash to kill 7. it would require jaedong to be slightly negligent, and for flash to control flawlessly, both of which are not impossibilities. the game being 90% in jaedong's favor as i've said is based on the advantage that jaedong had, and the assumption that jaedong is not a hella bad player who would fall apart.
fakesteve saying jaedong would win that game 90% of the time is still merely conjecture and is not appropriate criteria for an admin decision of this magnitude But do you think that he really needed the 7'o'clock base to win the game? It would've still been something like 4 base vs. 1 base after a couple minutes, even if Flash managed to kill 7 o clock. just as flash could have possibly won the game, so could jaedong possibly win the game even if he lost 7. that's completely irrelevant I don't think it is irrelevant. Your argument is that Flash could have won the game if Jaedong messed up and Flash killed 7oclock. I said that I still don't think Flash would have a chance even if he did kill it. So could you respond to that?
i really don't have the patience to lay out every single potential sequence of events that could lead to jaedong or flash winning. if that's what this conversation is gonna take, then i'll have to bow out 
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On January 24 2010 10:42 StarcraftMan wrote:Thus, in MLB, the commissioner (Selig) would never "gift" a win to the team with the advantage - he would force the game to be played out until there was a definite winner.
The difference being that "playing it out until there was a definite winner" isn't an option in this case - the options are declare a win or start over entirely. And if the game was, say, 6-1 in the 8th, and the choice was starting over from scratch or declaring the team with a significant if not definitive advantage the winner... you can sort of see why they might decide the way they did. It's going to be controversial either way, but there's definitely an argument to be made that it's the lesser of two evils.
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On January 24 2010 10:46 FakeSteve[TPR] wrote:Show nested quote +On January 24 2010 10:41 Zozma wrote:On January 24 2010 10:39 FakeSteve[TPR] wrote:On January 24 2010 10:37 Zozma wrote:On January 24 2010 10:35 FakeSteve[TPR] wrote:
if jaedong had at any time abandoned his 7oclock base in favor of attacking or roaming the map or defending his other expansion from a drop or what have you, that's an opportunity for flash to kill 7. it would require jaedong to be slightly negligent, and for flash to control flawlessly, both of which are not impossibilities. the game being 90% in jaedong's favor as i've said is based on the advantage that jaedong had, and the assumption that jaedong is not a hella bad player who would fall apart.
fakesteve saying jaedong would win that game 90% of the time is still merely conjecture and is not appropriate criteria for an admin decision of this magnitude But do you think that he really needed the 7'o'clock base to win the game? It would've still been something like 4 base vs. 1 base after a couple minutes, even if Flash managed to kill 7 o clock. just as flash could have possibly won the game, so could jaedong possibly win the game even if he lost 7. that's completely irrelevant I don't think it is irrelevant. Your argument is that Flash could have won the game if Jaedong messed up and Flash killed 7oclock. I said that I still don't think Flash would have a chance even if he did kill it. So could you respond to that? i really don't have the patience to lay out every single potential sequence of events that could lead to jaedong or flash winning. if that's what this conversation is gonna take, then i'll have to bow out I'd be satisfied if you could show even one reasonable way for Flash to win, other than "Jaedong takes a break and zozma starts playing instead".
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Valhalla18444 Posts
On January 24 2010 10:44 Tien wrote:Show nested quote +On January 24 2010 10:30 FakeSteve[TPR] wrote:On January 24 2010 10:27 KwarK wrote:On January 24 2010 10:25 FakeSteve[TPR] wrote:On January 24 2010 10:24 KwarK wrote:On January 24 2010 10:22 FakeSteve[TPR] wrote:On January 24 2010 10:20 KwarK wrote:
FakeSteve, I ran a few simulations in comparable situations and the game was about 20 seconds from ending in those. I don't think Flash had 10%. Flash couldn't hold off the units JD had at the time of the disc, let alone the ones he had 30 seconds later. Pure marines and medics simply cannot kill those numbers of ultralisks. Ever. don't think i'm being rude or personal or anything, but your simulations have literally zero reflection on a professional game hahah I believe I can accurately reflect the incomes of players. I know how many drones JD had at every base but 3. I know how many mineral patches Flash had. That tells me what kind of economy they were working with. Obviously I'm not JD and my opponent wasn't Flash. But could you at least agree that I can create an approximate reproduction of the economy in that game? sure, but why do you think you can create a realistic approximation of the events that would take place had the blackout not happened? Well assuming both players used their resources to make units, the events are predictable. JaeDong makes ultralisks and Flash loses almost immediately. Bw is an economic game. Micro is an important factor but nobodies micro is that good. you must be of the opinion that the game was 100% over at the time of the blackout. that opinion is wrong, and your simulation still has no relevance Then why did KESPA give Julyzerg the win vs Bisu when it was 99.99% sure July had the game in the bag before Bisu disconnected? Going by your logic, Bisu wasn't 100% out of the game (didn't GG) so he should have been awarded a regame, which he was not.
now, it's possible that my memory is fuzzy, but at worst i can remember something i posted earlier in the thread:
On January 24 2010 10:13 FakeSteve[TPR] wrote:I would definitely agree that given the precedent set by terrible KeSPA decision-making over the last few years, their choice was definitely the path of least resistance. I am simply in favor of a rematch unless a winner is clearly already decided, to the point where the winning player is simply performing cleanup. that's a pretty different situation from this flash vs jaedong game 
Wasn't Bisu vs July a hydra break vs forge FE wherein Bisu's nat was destroyed, as were most of his probes, and he had like four gateways in his main all taking hydra fire? that qualifies as a finished game in the cleanup phase
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EPT
