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Valhalla18444 Posts
On January 24 2010 09:29 magicbullet wrote:Show nested quote +On January 24 2010 09:23 FakeSteve[TPR] wrote:On January 24 2010 03:46 JWD wrote:
motbob I agree with your game analysis but not your conclusion. I'm busting ass on a school assignment that's due in 3hrs15min right now, but if I've still got any steam left when I finish I will make another OP with my argument. no, post it here there's a million threads already hahahahah anyway, motbob's analysis of the game is spot on. i am without question in favor of a regame. i find the idea that it's "more unfair to jaedong" because his build only works once to be completely ludicrous. that one-in-ten chance of flash winning is enough to warrant a rematch At the expense of JD's 9 in 10 chance of winning, which he acquired over 18 mins of fantastic play and an opening build that countered Flash's plan, and expect him to start anew in a terran-favored map?
yes, absolutely. on what planet is it appropriate to make decisions like this based on how fair the map is, or how heavily one player's build relies on surprise?
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On January 24 2010 09:45 Scaramanga wrote:
Oh being told that you lose a game due to a power outage is the fairest thing ive ever heard of
Then you've missed the entire point of the OP's post..
On January 24 2010 09:49 FakeSteve[TPR] wrote:
yes, absolutely. on what planet is it appropriate to make decisions like this based on how fair the map is, or how heavily one player's build relies on surprise?
I think it was more of an appropriate decision based on how the game had gone and what position both players were in. Even without arguing map balance or whatever, JD was clearly ahead by a healthy margin at that point after successfully defending his expansion and Flash retreating back to his base. To throw away the entire game past the point where a recovery could not be reasonably or convincingly argued doesn't make a whole lot of sense from an officiating standpoint despite the fact that it would provide a better experience for viewers by giving them another game. The long delay after the decision was really the bigger problem, I think. Allowing people to go on a tirade to argue the decision for like an hour was the worst thing ever..
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Why is it that nobody mentions that JD was probably more heavily screwed over by the power outage? He could've(and most likely would've) beaten Flash fair and square after playing a brilliant match against map imbalances... Now his honor was tainted by this MBC blunder. It's JD getting screwed, not Flash.
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Valhalla18444 Posts
On January 24 2010 09:49 HeartOfTofu wrote:Show nested quote +On January 24 2010 09:45 Scaramanga wrote:
Oh being told that you lose a game due to a power outage is the fairest thing ive ever heard of Then you've missed the entire point of the OP's post.. Show nested quote +On January 24 2010 09:49 FakeSteve[TPR] wrote:
yes, absolutely. on what planet is it appropriate to make decisions like this based on how fair the map is, or how heavily one player's build relies on surprise? I think it was more of an appropriate decision based on how the game had gone and what position both players were in. Even without arguing map balance or whatever, JD was clearly ahead by a healthy margin at that point after successfully defending his expansion and Flash retreating back to his base. To throw away the entire game past the point where a recovery could not be reasonably or convincingly argued doesn't make a whole lot of sense from an officiating standpoint despite the fact that it would provide a better experience for viewers by giving them another game. The long delay after the decision was really the bigger problem, I think. Allowing people to go on a tirade to argue the decision for like an hour was the worst thing ever..
the result isn't a foregone conclusion. the basic facts amount to a requirement that Jaedong makes a critical mistake for Flash to come back and win. A player shouldn't be given that credit, and another player should have an opportunity to seize that 10% chance.
I would definitely agree that given the precedent set by terrible KeSPA decision-making over the last few years, their choice was definitely the path of least resistance. I am simply in favor of a rematch unless a winner is clearly already decided, to the point where the winning player is simply performing cleanup. that's a pretty different situation from this flash vs jaedong game 
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On January 24 2010 09:49 FakeSteve[TPR] wrote:Show nested quote +On January 24 2010 09:29 magicbullet wrote:On January 24 2010 09:23 FakeSteve[TPR] wrote:On January 24 2010 03:46 JWD wrote:
motbob I agree with your game analysis but not your conclusion. I'm busting ass on a school assignment that's due in 3hrs15min right now, but if I've still got any steam left when I finish I will make another OP with my argument. no, post it here there's a million threads already hahahahah anyway, motbob's analysis of the game is spot on. i am without question in favor of a regame. i find the idea that it's "more unfair to jaedong" because his build only works once to be completely ludicrous. that one-in-ten chance of flash winning is enough to warrant a rematch At the expense of JD's 9 in 10 chance of winning, which he acquired over 18 mins of fantastic play and an opening build that countered Flash's plan, and expect him to start anew in a terran-favored map? yes, absolutely. on what planet is it appropriate to make decisions like this based on how fair the map is, or how heavily one player's build relies on surprise? I think you're being sarcastic, but that seems pretty fair to me. Jaedong had to overcome map imbalance to get what everyone agrees is an almost certain win. How is it fair to take away a 99% win and throw Jaedong into a situation where the tables are turned and he's extremely likely to lose?
Saying that a rematch would be better is based on the premise that the rematch would be fair. (50% chance to win for both players) That's not true. And even if both players had 50% chance to win the rematch, Jaedong would still be getting shafted.
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On January 24 2010 09:49 FakeSteve[TPR] wrote:I would definitely agree that given the precedent set by terrible KeSPA decision-making over the last few years, their choice was definitely the path of least resistance. I am simply in favor of a rematch unless a winner is clearly already decided, to the point where the winning player is simply performing cleanup. that's a pretty different situation from this flash vs jaedong game
I agree with you. Think Boxer vs Joyo, or any other games where it was a comeback from the brink. Even the 2v2 where Backho came back 1v2 vs KTF. There is always a fighting chance. IMO, Boxer vs Joyo was in a far more perilous situation and managed to come back from the brink.
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I agree with FakeSteve. It is pretty much undeniable now that Jaedong was indeed ahead but like he says, if anyone can seize that 10% chance, it would be Flash and that's is what should have made this set memorable. When Flash captures victory and makes a great comeback - these are the kind of games that a Grand Final should be remembered for. Not a silly ass heater black out.
THE MAP IS NAMED FIGHTING SPIRIT FOR GOD'S SAKE (4set). And how much spirit could Flash have after that whole mess? :/
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Valhalla18444 Posts
On January 24 2010 10:18 Zozma wrote:Show nested quote +On January 24 2010 09:49 FakeSteve[TPR] wrote:On January 24 2010 09:29 magicbullet wrote:On January 24 2010 09:23 FakeSteve[TPR] wrote:On January 24 2010 03:46 JWD wrote:
motbob I agree with your game analysis but not your conclusion. I'm busting ass on a school assignment that's due in 3hrs15min right now, but if I've still got any steam left when I finish I will make another OP with my argument. no, post it here there's a million threads already hahahahah anyway, motbob's analysis of the game is spot on. i am without question in favor of a regame. i find the idea that it's "more unfair to jaedong" because his build only works once to be completely ludicrous. that one-in-ten chance of flash winning is enough to warrant a rematch At the expense of JD's 9 in 10 chance of winning, which he acquired over 18 mins of fantastic play and an opening build that countered Flash's plan, and expect him to start anew in a terran-favored map? yes, absolutely. on what planet is it appropriate to make decisions like this based on how fair the map is, or how heavily one player's build relies on surprise? I think you're being sarcastic, but that seems pretty fair to me. Jaedong had to overcome map imbalance to get what everyone agrees is an almost certain win. How is it fair to take away a 99% win and throw Jaedong into a situation where the tables are turned and he's extremely likely to lose? Saying that a rematch would be better is based on the premise that the rematch would be fair. (50% chance to win for both players) That's not true. And even if both players had 50% chance to win the rematch, Jaedong would still be getting shafted.
by that logic, no map should be chosen that is not 100% balanced in every matchup
since that's frankly impossible... well, imo it should be pretty easy to see why KeSPA shouldn't be considering map balance when making this decision  i'm really not sure where this idea that the decision 'has to be fair to jaedong because he is playing on an imbalanced map' comes from. the game was not over, that should instantly be a rematch.
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United States43861 Posts
FakeSteve, I ran a few simulations in comparable situations and the game was about 20 seconds from ending in those. I don't think Flash had 10%. Flash couldn't hold off the units JD had at the time of the disc, let alone the ones he had 30 seconds later. Pure marines and medics simply cannot kill those numbers of ultralisks. Ever.
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Valhalla18444 Posts
On January 24 2010 10:20 KwarK wrote:
FakeSteve, I ran a few simulations in comparable situations and the game was about 20 seconds from ending in those. I don't think Flash had 10%. Flash couldn't hold off the units JD had at the time of the disc, let alone the ones he had 30 seconds later. Pure marines and medics simply cannot kill those numbers of ultralisks. Ever.
don't think i'm being rude or personal or anything, but your simulations have literally zero reflection on a professional game hahah
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On January 24 2010 10:19 FakeSteve[TPR] wrote:by that logic, no map should be chosen that is not 100% balanced in every matchup since that's frankly impossible... well, imo it should be pretty easy to see why KeSPA shouldn't be considering map balance when making this decision But a re-game wouldn't be preserving what you call Flash's 10% chance to win- even in the ideal case it would be giving him a 50% chance to win.
Now, check my math, but I think that's 40 percentage points of unfair to Jaedong, whereas awarding the game is only 10% unfair to Flash.
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On January 24 2010 08:54 HeartOfTofu wrote:Show nested quote +On January 24 2010 08:49 TeWy wrote:
Could you please point out some examples of that Baseball thing ? I would like to know what they consider to be a "clear advantage". http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rainout_(sports)Show nested quote +
If a game is rained out before play begins, it is rescheduled for a later date. If it has already begun and rain falls, several scenarios are used to determine the need to resume play:
* If the game has completed the top half of the 5th inning and the home team is ahead, the game can be deemed an official game. The home team is declared the winner, and the game officially counts in standings.
* If the game has completed the bottom half of the 5th inning and either team is ahead, the game can be deemed an official game. The leading team is declared the winner, and the game officially counts in standings.
* If the game has completed the 5th inning, and the teams are tied, or if the game is a playoff game, the game is considered suspended, and the resumption of the game is scheduled for a future date (usually the following day). The game picks up from where it left off.
* If neither of the previous three scenarios apply, the game can not be deemed official. The umpire declares "No Game," and a make-up of the game is scheduled for a future date. The statistics compiled during the rained out game are not counted.
Except Bud Selig, the commissioner of MLB, clearly stated if the game were called when the Phillies were up 2-1 on the Rays after the 5th inning, that MLB would have overruled this:
No shortened victory
The game became an official game after the fifth inning. Had umpires stopped it there, with the Phillies leading 2-1, the Phils could have been awarded their trophy.
Selig said that wouldn’t have happened. He said Game 5 will be a nine-inning game.
“It’s not a way to end a World Series,” he said.
http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/headline/sports/6081065.html
You see, even in MLB, the commissioner has the sense to not "gift" the win to a particular team, despite that team having an advantage when the game was cancelled.
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Valhalla18444 Posts
On January 24 2010 10:23 Zozma wrote:Show nested quote +On January 24 2010 10:19 FakeSteve[TPR] wrote:by that logic, no map should be chosen that is not 100% balanced in every matchup since that's frankly impossible... well, imo it should be pretty easy to see why KeSPA shouldn't be considering map balance when making this decision But a re-game wouldn't be preserving what you call Flash's 10% chance to win- even in the ideal case it would be giving him a 50% chance to win. Now, check my math, but I think that's 40 percentage points of unfair to Jaedong, whereas awarding the game is only 10% unfair to Flash.
it's not about making sure the percentages add up. are we gonna award a player a win during a disconnect because he killed one probe compared to the opponent's zero probe kills, therefore the player with the victorious probe has a 51% chance to win?
the game was not over
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United States43861 Posts
On January 24 2010 10:22 FakeSteve[TPR] wrote:Show nested quote +On January 24 2010 10:20 KwarK wrote:
FakeSteve, I ran a few simulations in comparable situations and the game was about 20 seconds from ending in those. I don't think Flash had 10%. Flash couldn't hold off the units JD had at the time of the disc, let alone the ones he had 30 seconds later. Pure marines and medics simply cannot kill those numbers of ultralisks. Ever. don't think i'm being rude or personal or anything, but your simulations have literally zero reflection on a professional game hahah
I believe I can accurately reflect the incomes of players. I know how many drones JD had at every base but 3. I know how many mineral patches Flash had. That tells me what kind of economy they were working with.
Obviously I'm not JD and my opponent wasn't Flash. But could you at least agree that I can create an approximate reproduction of the economy in that game?
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Valhalla18444 Posts
On January 24 2010 10:24 KwarK wrote:Show nested quote +On January 24 2010 10:22 FakeSteve[TPR] wrote:On January 24 2010 10:20 KwarK wrote:
FakeSteve, I ran a few simulations in comparable situations and the game was about 20 seconds from ending in those. I don't think Flash had 10%. Flash couldn't hold off the units JD had at the time of the disc, let alone the ones he had 30 seconds later. Pure marines and medics simply cannot kill those numbers of ultralisks. Ever. don't think i'm being rude or personal or anything, but your simulations have literally zero reflection on a professional game hahah I believe I can accurately reflect the incomes of players. I know how many drones JD had at every base but 3. I know how many mineral patches Flash had. That tells me what kind of economy they were working with. Obviously I'm not JD and my opponent wasn't Flash. But could you at least agree that I can create an approximate reproduction of the economy in that game?
sure, but why do you think you can create a realistic approximation of the events that would take place had the blackout not happened?
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On January 24 2010 10:24 FakeSteve[TPR] wrote:Show nested quote +On January 24 2010 10:23 Zozma wrote:On January 24 2010 10:19 FakeSteve[TPR] wrote:by that logic, no map should be chosen that is not 100% balanced in every matchup since that's frankly impossible... well, imo it should be pretty easy to see why KeSPA shouldn't be considering map balance when making this decision But a re-game wouldn't be preserving what you call Flash's 10% chance to win- even in the ideal case it would be giving him a 50% chance to win. Now, check my math, but I think that's 40 percentage points of unfair to Jaedong, whereas awarding the game is only 10% unfair to Flash. it's not about making sure the percentages add up. are we gonna award a player a win during a disconnect because he killed one probe compared to the opponent's zero probe kills, therefore the player with the victorious probe has a 51% chance to win? the game was not over But Jaedong was on 5 gas and Flash was quickly being reduced to a mineral-only. That's not anything like a single probe kill.
The game WAS over.
Sure, there was a chance that Jaedong might have decided to go out for a hamburger, but there's an equal chance that Flash would do the same, and in neither case is it high enough to justify a rematch.
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United States43861 Posts
On January 24 2010 10:25 FakeSteve[TPR] wrote:Show nested quote +On January 24 2010 10:24 KwarK wrote:On January 24 2010 10:22 FakeSteve[TPR] wrote:On January 24 2010 10:20 KwarK wrote:
FakeSteve, I ran a few simulations in comparable situations and the game was about 20 seconds from ending in those. I don't think Flash had 10%. Flash couldn't hold off the units JD had at the time of the disc, let alone the ones he had 30 seconds later. Pure marines and medics simply cannot kill those numbers of ultralisks. Ever. don't think i'm being rude or personal or anything, but your simulations have literally zero reflection on a professional game hahah I believe I can accurately reflect the incomes of players. I know how many drones JD had at every base but 3. I know how many mineral patches Flash had. That tells me what kind of economy they were working with. Obviously I'm not JD and my opponent wasn't Flash. But could you at least agree that I can create an approximate reproduction of the economy in that game? sure, but why do you think you can create a realistic approximation of the events that would take place had the blackout not happened?
Well assuming both players used their resources to make units, the events are predictable. JaeDong makes ultralisks and Flash loses almost immediately. Bw is an economic game. Micro is an important factor but nobodies micro is that good.
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On January 24 2010 10:24 StarcraftMan wrote:Show nested quote +On January 24 2010 08:54 HeartOfTofu wrote:On January 24 2010 08:49 TeWy wrote:
Could you please point out some examples of that Baseball thing ? I would like to know what they consider to be a "clear advantage". http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rainout_(sports)
If a game is rained out before play begins, it is rescheduled for a later date. If it has already begun and rain falls, several scenarios are used to determine the need to resume play:
* If the game has completed the top half of the 5th inning and the home team is ahead, the game can be deemed an official game. The home team is declared the winner, and the game officially counts in standings.
* If the game has completed the bottom half of the 5th inning and either team is ahead, the game can be deemed an official game. The leading team is declared the winner, and the game officially counts in standings.
* If the game has completed the 5th inning, and the teams are tied, or if the game is a playoff game, the game is considered suspended, and the resumption of the game is scheduled for a future date (usually the following day). The game picks up from where it left off.
* If neither of the previous three scenarios apply, the game can not be deemed official. The umpire declares "No Game," and a make-up of the game is scheduled for a future date. The statistics compiled during the rained out game are not counted.
Except Bud Selig, the commissioner of MLB, clearly stated if the game were called when the Phillies were up 2-1 on the Rays after the 5th inning, that MLB would have overruled this: Show nested quote +
No shortened victory
The game became an official game after the fifth inning. Had umpires stopped it there, with the Phillies leading 2-1, the Phils could have been awarded their trophy.
Selig said that wouldn’t have happened. He said Game 5 will be a nine-inning game.
“It’s not a way to end a World Series,” he said.
http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/headline/sports/6081065.htmlYou see, even in MLB, the commissioner has the sense to not "gift" the win to a particular team, despite that team having an advantage when the game was cancelled.
Everyone and KESPa needs to read this post.
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On January 24 2010 10:27 lynx.oblige wrote:Show nested quote +On January 24 2010 10:24 StarcraftMan wrote:On January 24 2010 08:54 HeartOfTofu wrote:On January 24 2010 08:49 TeWy wrote:
Could you please point out some examples of that Baseball thing ? I would like to know what they consider to be a "clear advantage". http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rainout_(sports)
If a game is rained out before play begins, it is rescheduled for a later date. If it has already begun and rain falls, several scenarios are used to determine the need to resume play:
* If the game has completed the top half of the 5th inning and the home team is ahead, the game can be deemed an official game. The home team is declared the winner, and the game officially counts in standings.
* If the game has completed the bottom half of the 5th inning and either team is ahead, the game can be deemed an official game. The leading team is declared the winner, and the game officially counts in standings.
* If the game has completed the 5th inning, and the teams are tied, or if the game is a playoff game, the game is considered suspended, and the resumption of the game is scheduled for a future date (usually the following day). The game picks up from where it left off.
* If neither of the previous three scenarios apply, the game can not be deemed official. The umpire declares "No Game," and a make-up of the game is scheduled for a future date. The statistics compiled during the rained out game are not counted.
Except Bud Selig, the commissioner of MLB, clearly stated if the game were called when the Phillies were up 2-1 on the Rays after the 5th inning, that MLB would have overruled this:
No shortened victory
The game became an official game after the fifth inning. Had umpires stopped it there, with the Phillies leading 2-1, the Phils could have been awarded their trophy.
Selig said that wouldn’t have happened. He said Game 5 will be a nine-inning game.
“It’s not a way to end a World Series,” he said.
http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/headline/sports/6081065.htmlYou see, even in MLB, the commissioner has the sense to not "gift" the win to a particular team, despite that team having an advantage when the game was cancelled. Everyone and KESPa needs to read this post. But when we're talking about a score of 50-1 and there are only a few minutes left in the baseball game, I start to question whether a rematch is really the best policy.
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Valhalla18444 Posts
On January 24 2010 10:26 Zozma wrote:Show nested quote +On January 24 2010 10:24 FakeSteve[TPR] wrote:On January 24 2010 10:23 Zozma wrote:On January 24 2010 10:19 FakeSteve[TPR] wrote:by that logic, no map should be chosen that is not 100% balanced in every matchup since that's frankly impossible... well, imo it should be pretty easy to see why KeSPA shouldn't be considering map balance when making this decision But a re-game wouldn't be preserving what you call Flash's 10% chance to win- even in the ideal case it would be giving him a 50% chance to win. Now, check my math, but I think that's 40 percentage points of unfair to Jaedong, whereas awarding the game is only 10% unfair to Flash. it's not about making sure the percentages add up. are we gonna award a player a win during a disconnect because he killed one probe compared to the opponent's zero probe kills, therefore the player with the victorious probe has a 51% chance to win? the game was not over But Jaedong was on 5 gas and Flash was quickly being reduced to a mineral-only. That's not anything like a single probe kill. The game WAS over. Sure, there was a chance that Jaedong might have decided to go out for a hamburger, but there's an equal chance that Flash would do the same, and in neither case is it high enough to justify a rematch.
ok, i'm gonna repeat this one more time. it is possible for flash to win given the situation that the players were in at the time of the blackout. it's a pretty remote chance, and it would require jaedong to make an error in his decision making, but the winner had not yet been decided, and making a decision based on perceived probabilities and the interest of fairness based on map imbalance and one player's build relying on surprise is a horrible admin decision.
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