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United States42259 Posts
On January 24 2010 11:03 FakeSteve[TPR] wrote:Show nested quote +On January 24 2010 11:01 koreasilver wrote:On January 24 2010 11:01 FakeSteve[TPR] wrote:On January 24 2010 10:59 KwarK wrote:
I'm not assuming he sits there awaiting a death blow. The death blow is about 20 seconds away at the blackout. You're assuming that he could survive a single wave of ultralisks with swarm using only marines and medics (and whatever irradiate his vessels had although they didn't have energy 10 secs before blackout). All your ideas about these clever things that Flash could do are as relevant as suggestions that Bisu could have rebuilt gateways and got storm vs July. two completely different situations, and i especially don't have the patience to explain that to you  Grasping at straws. lol nobody ought to wonder why i never discuss this sorta thing on tl anymore
Lol. The facts of the economy in that game are simple. By the time Flash had dropships to do dropship play JaeDongs army would be large enough to overrun the min only. Even if Flash didn't put any mnm in the dropships and stayed to defend, JaeDongs army was still big enough to overrun his min only. You cannot fight ultralisks under dark swarm with marines and medics, just like you can't fight mass archons with zerglings. It's not a question of player skill or options. When one player has lots of A and the other player can only make B, well, that's that.
You're theorycrafting while ignoring the income of the players. You're pretending Flash still had the income to even run his 8 rax and 2 starports (which kept minerals down when Flash was mining 18 mineral patches and 2 full gases). Flash doesn't have that anymore. His main gas depletes one minute after the blackout, his main is already mined out and at the time of the blackout his nat was down to 6 crystals. A minute later it's on 3. Half of his barracks go inactive. One of his starports goes down. Meanwhile JaeDong has just taken one.
You cannot ignore those economic facts. No matter what Flash wanted to do or tried to do, he was getting a moved by ultralisks and dying.
Edit: Ok, so you're not talking about the theorycraft at all. You're saying that Flash still had options simply because, like Bisu, gg hadn't been said when the game ended.
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The way I'd approach this is imagining myself as both players. Knowing what I do about the game, I would be a LOT more pissed off as Jaedong if they called the regame than I would as Flash with Kespa's decision. A regame would have upped Flash's chances in the series much more significantly than the decision did for Jaedong.
This is only taking into account the decision itself of course. The mess that followed with Flash's father and team played a part in hurting Flash's chances for sure, but that can't really be taken into account. There would be no way to predict it, and even if there was, it would be unfair to punish one player because you know the other player's supporters would make a bigger deal out of it.
So just taking into account the decision. Imagine there was no fighting back, and after the ruling the games were allowed to continue almost immediately. Who's chances would have been hurt more one way or the other? Who would honestly be given the short straw? Flash should have prepared for the probability of a loss on game 3 that lead to a 1-2 score, he can play with that assumption. Jaedong on the other hand has nothing to fall back on. Even ignoring the injustice of losing a won game (say they were tied at that point, or he was even losing), what are his options? If you are trying to argue that in a perfect world we'd all have regames thats fine, but I personally am definitely in favor of Kespa allowing decision judging like this, because otherwise this situation would have been so much more fucked up. It would have REALLY hurt to watch and I'd have a hard time imagining the series as even being remotely fair.
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Just think about it, Flash had to keep producing SVs so there is no way that he can even choose to make Dropships, not an option. Plus he have no tanks. Jaedong can keep streaming in Zerglings with Defilers and will still manage to take the Min natural that Flash have. Not to mention the Nydus Canal and Sunken Colonies at the 7. The game was too good for Jaedong to lose.
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Valhalla18444 Posts
On January 24 2010 11:07 ghrur wrote:Show nested quote +On January 24 2010 11:05 FakeSteve[TPR] wrote:On January 24 2010 11:04 mahnini wrote:
because you aren't discussing it haha yep, i'm purposefully avoiding it. i'm attempting to talk strictly from an admin decision standpoint, but people want to theorycraft. since reading theorycraft posts drives me into a frothing rage, i'm staying outta that part of this discussion hahahah Different administrative styles occur though. KeSPa just happened to have a different one than yours. =/ Doesn't mean they were better or worse in this case.
actually, there certainly is a better way. look at all this controversy, the high emotions, the feelings of ill will toward kespa and MBC. if kespa had actually implemented their rules properly (i think we all agree that their referee-on-site methods have had some catastrophic results), a forced regame in that situation would be completely acceptable. obviously no one would be completely satisfied with the decision, because nothing compares to the ideal - no blackout in the first place.
it's important for a governing body to have clear boundaries and a system in place for every situation. their decisions shouldn't rely on something as convoluted as an advantage in a StarCraft match. they ought to run the show as silently as possible.
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On January 24 2010 11:12 FakeSteve[TPR] wrote:Show nested quote +On January 24 2010 11:07 ghrur wrote:On January 24 2010 11:05 FakeSteve[TPR] wrote:On January 24 2010 11:04 mahnini wrote:
because you aren't discussing it haha yep, i'm purposefully avoiding it. i'm attempting to talk strictly from an admin decision standpoint, but people want to theorycraft. since reading theorycraft posts drives me into a frothing rage, i'm staying outta that part of this discussion hahahah Different administrative styles occur though. KeSPa just happened to have a different one than yours. =/ Doesn't mean they were better or worse in this case. actually, there certainly is a better way. look at all this controversy, the high emotions, the feelings of ill will toward kespa and MBC. if kespa had actually implemented their rules properly (i think we all agree that their referee-on-site methods have had some catastrophic results), a forced regame in that situation would be completely acceptable. obviously no one would be completely satisfied with the decision, because nothing compares to the ideal - no blackout in the first place. it's important for a governing body to have clear boundaries and a system in place for every situation. their decisions shouldn't rely on something as convoluted as an advantage in a StarCraft match. they ought to run the show as silently as possible. I, at least, would be pretty angry if they took away that win and Jaedong ended up losing the series because of it.
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Valhalla18444 Posts
i would also like to point out that the theorycraft being presented by all of you is a result of incredible effort and devotion. the person who made the decision on-site did not have the time, resources, or sheer collective of minds that we have here to dissect every possibility and outcome.
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On January 24 2010 11:12 FakeSteve[TPR] wrote:Show nested quote +On January 24 2010 11:07 ghrur wrote:On January 24 2010 11:05 FakeSteve[TPR] wrote:On January 24 2010 11:04 mahnini wrote:
because you aren't discussing it haha yep, i'm purposefully avoiding it. i'm attempting to talk strictly from an admin decision standpoint, but people want to theorycraft. since reading theorycraft posts drives me into a frothing rage, i'm staying outta that part of this discussion hahahah Different administrative styles occur though. KeSPa just happened to have a different one than yours. =/ Doesn't mean they were better or worse in this case. actually, there certainly is a better way. look at all this controversy, the high emotions, the feelings of ill will toward kespa and MBC. if kespa had actually implemented their rules properly (i think we all agree that their referee-on-site methods have had some catastrophic results), a forced regame in that situation would be completely acceptable. obviously no one would be completely satisfied with the decision, because nothing compares to the ideal - no blackout in the first place. it's important for a governing body to have clear boundaries and a system in place for every situation. their decisions shouldn't rely on something as convoluted as an advantage in a StarCraft match. they ought to run the show as silently as possible.
Again nobody would be happy with the decision just because you think it would be completely acceptable does not mean everybody is. Is a lose/lose either way for kespa.
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On January 24 2010 07:17 Insight wrote:
can someone give any valid argument why match point and ultimatum are terran favored? referring to statistics is so retarded cause there were maps where statistics were 90% in favor of certain race after 20ish games and it equalized later on, you'd need a good amount of games to be able to claim map imbalance based on statistics
number of games according to tl statistics:
match point: TvZ: 10-6
ultimatum: TvZ: 6-3
anyone who knows ANYTHING AT ALL about statistics knows that you need a good sample for statistics to be valid source of information, 16 and 9 games is ridiculously small sample, it could've been 90% either way depending on which players happened to play for each race
match point is in my opinion zerg favored map because of architecture around mains and nats that make muta harass way more effective then it is on other maps. most tvz games I've seen on it were 2 hatch muta openings and terrans struggling to hold it off, specially at nat. there's also more space behind main mineral line in compare to other maps, space which is hard to maneuver around with mnm cause of mineral line itself and you can't shoot from between cc and minerals (not with enough marines anyway) so you can take advantage of it with mutas and snipe few extra scvs then you normally would have. there are also plenty of ridges everywhere for mutas to combat mnm force in the field if terran decides to fight muta harass by being aggressive. we've seen flash losing to some zerg whose name I can't remember earlier this season for this very reason. he went 2 hatch mutas and "abused" map architecture to gain advantage, and then just played a standard game after that, riding the advantage gained from said map flaw
ultimatum is also zerg favored in my opinion because of island expansions. zerg has much better mobility then terran as far as island hopping goes because of nydus canals and scourge. now add the fact there are 2 island expos right next to each main and you get exactly what happened in game 2. jaedong had fantastic build to take advantage of this but he made a huge mistake by using guardians offensively instead of defensively. had he used guardians to defend his 4 expos, all of them would've been virtually indestructible and you'd see the unstoppable flood of ultra/ling cover the map just as the upgrades kick in
even tho I'm flash fan, jaedong outplayed him today, winning metagame in every set (with the exception of above mentioned mistake in g2) and I'm fairly sure he would've won the series even if blackout didn't occur
Match Point and Ultimatum isn't like most maps where zerg can put up 2 lurkers at an expo and be done with it. On those maps, it is very difficult to defend the 3rd gas. 3rd gas on Match points and Ultimatum have multiple entrance. Ultimatum has a big choke going in. Ultimatum has only 1 double gas expo which is always at 7 so it is quite predictable for most terran. The 4th gas is even more difficult to secure on Match Point since it is so far way from the 3rd gas. Being a 2 player map, it is far easier to do proxy bunker rush against a zerg. 9 pool or earlier are much easier to defend since SCV can scout it right away.
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Russian Federation4447 Posts
Watching the VOD over and over, Flash had literally a 30 second time frame to win the game.
Jaedong adds 20 lings / 4 ultras / 4 scourge / 1-2 defilers PER MINUTE.
Every minute goes by, Flash produces exponentially LESS while Jaedong produces exponentially MORE.
In 30 seconds, Flash would have to destroy:
- 20 lings
- 5-6 ultras
- 8 scourge
- 3-4 defilers
- 3 sunks.
With
- 30 marines
- 9 medics
- 5 vessels.
For the last 2 minutes, Flash was unable to wipe out that expo with half the Jaedong troop count. What makes anyone think he could do it within 30 seconds with the odds stacked even more against him?
If Flash and Jaedong wait another minute. Flash is now up against 10 cows / 30 lings / 3-4 defilers / control group of scourge.
It gets worse and worse as Flash prolongs the game.
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On January 24 2010 11:15 FakeSteve[TPR] wrote:
i would also like to point out that the theorycraft being presented by all of you is a result of incredible effort and devotion. the person who made the decision on-site did not have the time, resources, or sheer collective of minds that we have here to dissect every possibility and outcome. However the theorycrafting that was eventually applied supports the on-site decision. I don't have any problems with an argument that the decision was "hasty"- we're concerned with the correctness of the decision.
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On January 24 2010 11:12 FakeSteve[TPR] wrote:
(i think we all agree that their referee-on-site methods have had some catastrophic results)
Thing is, KeSPA has gotten into trouble because it *didn't* rely on the refs on the scene as well. Like, the Leta pp vs ppp thing - had the referee had the discretion to decide whether the typing was sufficient to warrant a DQ - as I believe he now does - then there's no problem there. I think even the official on the scene probably knew that was stupid. But he had no room in the rules to decide otherwise, so was forced to DQ a player for a really stupid reason. So trying to write rules that address every possible situation has its pitfalls as well.
The problem was not so much that the way the decision was made was bad; the problem was that there was no possible good decision. If the game had blacked out 30 seconds earlier, it's probably a regame and while no one is happy, it's hard to argue that it should be otherwise. If the game blacks out 30 seconds later, Jaedong is probably clearly in cleanup phase and there's little ambiguity that he should be given a win. It just so happens that the game went down in a very narrow window as the game was transitioning from "too close to call" to "clearly decided", such that any possible decision that could be made was controversial.
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Valhalla18444 Posts
On January 24 2010 11:13 Zozma wrote:Show nested quote +On January 24 2010 11:12 FakeSteve[TPR] wrote:On January 24 2010 11:07 ghrur wrote:On January 24 2010 11:05 FakeSteve[TPR] wrote:On January 24 2010 11:04 mahnini wrote:
because you aren't discussing it haha yep, i'm purposefully avoiding it. i'm attempting to talk strictly from an admin decision standpoint, but people want to theorycraft. since reading theorycraft posts drives me into a frothing rage, i'm staying outta that part of this discussion hahahah Different administrative styles occur though. KeSPa just happened to have a different one than yours. =/ Doesn't mean they were better or worse in this case. actually, there certainly is a better way. look at all this controversy, the high emotions, the feelings of ill will toward kespa and MBC. if kespa had actually implemented their rules properly (i think we all agree that their referee-on-site methods have had some catastrophic results), a forced regame in that situation would be completely acceptable. obviously no one would be completely satisfied with the decision, because nothing compares to the ideal - no blackout in the first place. it's important for a governing body to have clear boundaries and a system in place for every situation. their decisions shouldn't rely on something as convoluted as an advantage in a StarCraft match. they ought to run the show as silently as possible. I, at least, would be pretty angry if they took away that win and Jaedong ended up losing the series because of it.
of course you would, there's no way that everyone can be satisfied after something like a blackout happens. that is the entire reason the decision needs to be made as objectively as possible, and that's why there should have already been a precedent set that crash equals rematch. it's a matter of admin consistency & KeSPA owning the responsibility of administrating these leagues fairly without question.
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On January 24 2010 11:18 FakeSteve[TPR] wrote:Show nested quote +On January 24 2010 11:13 Zozma wrote:On January 24 2010 11:12 FakeSteve[TPR] wrote:On January 24 2010 11:07 ghrur wrote:On January 24 2010 11:05 FakeSteve[TPR] wrote:On January 24 2010 11:04 mahnini wrote:
because you aren't discussing it haha yep, i'm purposefully avoiding it. i'm attempting to talk strictly from an admin decision standpoint, but people want to theorycraft. since reading theorycraft posts drives me into a frothing rage, i'm staying outta that part of this discussion hahahah Different administrative styles occur though. KeSPa just happened to have a different one than yours. =/ Doesn't mean they were better or worse in this case. actually, there certainly is a better way. look at all this controversy, the high emotions, the feelings of ill will toward kespa and MBC. if kespa had actually implemented their rules properly (i think we all agree that their referee-on-site methods have had some catastrophic results), a forced regame in that situation would be completely acceptable. obviously no one would be completely satisfied with the decision, because nothing compares to the ideal - no blackout in the first place. it's important for a governing body to have clear boundaries and a system in place for every situation. their decisions shouldn't rely on something as convoluted as an advantage in a StarCraft match. they ought to run the show as silently as possible. I, at least, would be pretty angry if they took away that win and Jaedong ended up losing the series because of it. of course you would, there's no way that everyone can be satisfied after something like a blackout happens. that is the entire reason the decision needs to be made as objectively as possible, and that's why there should have already been a precedent set that crash equals rematch. it's a matter of admin consistency & KeSPA owning the responsibility of administrating these leagues fairly without question. In that case, you're also arguing with the verdict in Bisu vs. July by saying that the rule should be "rematch" and that it should be applied every time.
And unless you respond to KwarK's last post, there's no way to say that Bisu vs. July was more decided compared to this game.
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United States42259 Posts
On January 24 2010 11:15 FakeSteve[TPR] wrote:
i would also like to point out that the theorycraft being presented by all of you is a result of incredible effort and devotion. the person who made the decision on-site did not have the time, resources, or sheer collective of minds that we have here to dissect every possibility and outcome.
I was 100% sure JD won the moment he held 7. I'd flatter myself to say I know a thing or 2 about going 2 base allin vs zerg, at least enough to recognise it when I see it. Part of the reason I'm posting so much about it now is because everyone was muted in that chat and there was a guy called TOP who could talk and was going on sick tilt because in his opinion Flash had it totally in the bag because he'd kept JaeDong on the ropes by throwing these massive mnm armies at him. Obviously TOP didn't know 2 base allins when he saw them and didn't understand that the big final last push may look impressive but Terran is mined out and has nothing to follow it up with. That really got under my skin because he had no idea about anything but I couldn't correct him so I started posting about it on tl.
Anyway, my point is that if I can recognise a 2 base allin when I see it then the retired progamers who Kespa uses to judge can too.
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On January 24 2010 11:12 FakeSteve[TPR] wrote:Show nested quote +On January 24 2010 11:07 ghrur wrote:On January 24 2010 11:05 FakeSteve[TPR] wrote:On January 24 2010 11:04 mahnini wrote:
because you aren't discussing it haha yep, i'm purposefully avoiding it. i'm attempting to talk strictly from an admin decision standpoint, but people want to theorycraft. since reading theorycraft posts drives me into a frothing rage, i'm staying outta that part of this discussion hahahah Different administrative styles occur though. KeSPa just happened to have a different one than yours. =/ Doesn't mean they were better or worse in this case. actually, there certainly is a better way. look at all this controversy, the high emotions, the feelings of ill will toward kespa and MBC. if kespa had actually implemented their rules properly (i think we all agree that their referee-on-site methods have had some catastrophic results), a forced regame in that situation would be completely acceptable. obviously no one would be completely satisfied with the decision, because nothing compares to the ideal - no blackout in the first place. it's important for a governing body to have clear boundaries and a system in place for every situation. their decisions shouldn't rely on something as convoluted as an advantage in a StarCraft match. they ought to run the show as silently as possible.
For someone who doesn't want to theorycraft SC at all, you aren't afraid of theorycrafting real life at all. I know I for one would definitely not support the removal of on-site referees and I'm quite certain if a regame happened and Flash took the series, we'd see a TON of outrage over the rule (much like the outrage over the typing=dq rule).
For all their inadequacies (and oh god are there many), the referee system itself is not flawed in my eyes. I wasn't upset with the way July/Bisu was handled and I'm not upset with the way this was handled. Other games that were called a win or regame don't stand out as much for me so I'm not sure I could say I've supported every one of their decisions but that doesn't even really matter. You need referees. Even if one makes a bad decision, its worth it for the gains made by all the many good decisions. In an ideal world, things would be simpler. There wouldn't be ref's making judgment calls in basketball, or linespeople missing faults in tennis or whatever else. But we don't live in such a world, and in my opinion its worth it to have referee's for the fairness they help provide in 90% of cases. It would be demoralizing for players and for spectators to watch an instant regame rule implimented take away wins like Jaedong's third set, or even worse July's hydra break. And there is no objective way to decide where that line falls, so such a rule would be doomed from the start.
In the end, I'd rather be mad at a referee than the system itself. Referee's are actually pretty good scapegoats that keep the system running and the fans happy with the overall flow of the game. Having an unchangeable and arbitrary rule (that will admittedly always be unfair to the player with the advantage) on the other hand is considerably more damaging to the game in general as a spectator sport.
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Canada9720 Posts
flash had just secured a min-only base, and imo, the battle at 7 was gradually going his way. really lame decision
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Good job, motbob.
It's very simple, but so many people are just completely blinded by their fanboyism. I'd like to add that Flash had no way of actually defending his min only against JD's multiple defilers with his lack of vessels and tanks, and would have lost only moments later.
Clearly the correct decision.
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On January 24 2010 11:28 CTStalker wrote:
flash had just secured a min-only base, and imo, the battle at 7 was gradually going his way. really lame decision reading the last three pages; a useful talent toi have.
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United States42259 Posts
On January 24 2010 11:29 Zozma wrote:Show nested quote +On January 24 2010 11:28 CTStalker wrote:
flash had just secured a min-only base, and imo, the battle at 7 was gradually going his way. really lame decision reading the last three pages; a useful talent toi have.
And watching the last 3 seconds of the vod helps.
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Canada9720 Posts
On January 24 2010 11:30 KwarK wrote:Show nested quote +On January 24 2010 11:29 Zozma wrote:On January 24 2010 11:28 CTStalker wrote:
flash had just secured a min-only base, and imo, the battle at 7 was gradually going his way. really lame decision reading the last three pages; a useful talent toi have. And watching the last 3 seconds of the vod helps.
i watched the whole vod
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EPT
