EPT[MSL Spoiler] His Overwhelming Advantage - Page 14
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Zozma
United States1626 Posts
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pvzvt
Israel2097 Posts
but hey like you say Fakesteve the winner had not yet been decided . if the choice is between regame or jd win , i can't see how you can go for a regame. and this isnt any i killed 1 probe i have the advantage case . people are giving you solid facts on how jaedong was at the lead and you reply with "the winner had not yet been decided" but if the choice is regame or jd win (dismissing flash win for obvious reason) a regame is absurd. | ||
KwarK
United States43907 Posts
Even if Flash's entire army was firing upon JaeDong's units from the moment they hatched, JaeDong can produce ultralisks faster than Flash can kill them. | ||
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Shikyo
Finland33997 Posts
On January 24 2010 10:52 FakeSteve[TPR] wrote: let's pretend Flash spends his remaining gas resources on vessels, one dropship, and a couple firebats to go along with his m&m production. you're telling me you would look at the game and be completely unable to see avenues Flash could take to win? all it would take is some sub-optimal defense from any sort of drop, and for Flash to preserve his remaining vessels. if at any point he got his army into a terrible position and it all died after he had exhausted his remaining resources, the game would be over. until that point it's just senseless to award a win to either player. give the dynamic pace of this game a little more credit. Let's say JD dark swarms the min only and forces a lift and Flash isn't mining. It's a very simple concept of choosing between two decisions where one player is going to lose less than the other, I don't understand how people don't get it unless they are just really fanboyish. EDIT: All the good players are agreeing on JD having a huge advantages, take a hint people. | ||
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koreasilver
9109 Posts
http://www.teamliquid.net/blogs/viewblog.php?topic_id=110678 | ||
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KwarK
United States43907 Posts
In the last 10 seconds of the vod Flash sees the defilers at 7 consuming stuff with his vessels but does not irradiate. ie no irradiate. In the last 3 seconds the minimap shows Flash's 10 marines and 8 medics going back to camp the mineral only. At this point we know for a fact that Flash has mined out his main completely, his natural is down to 7 crystals which are disappearing by the second and his main gas is going to deplete in 90 seconds. Flash no longer has the minerals to continue producing with all of his barracks and is losing mineral patches by the second, down to the 6 at his min only. He is also about to run out of gas for dual starport. On the other side, JaeDong has just expanded to 1 (see the minimap again) and has ultralisks and swarm. Ultralisks and swarm weren't really seen properly in that game because JD never had the gas until the final battle. It's true that Flash was kind of keeping up with JD's pure ultralisk play while he was macroing off his 2 bases but that was when JD was on 3 gas. JD is now on 5 gas with a 6th coming while Flash is on half the mineral patches he was previously and is about to drop down to 1/3. Flash has absolutely nothing that can fight swarmed ultralisks. He has one factory which has spent all game floating. He only has marines and 4 vessels with no energy. He has no economy and JD can produce an ultralisk every 9 seconds. | ||
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Shikyo
Finland33997 Posts
On January 24 2010 11:28 CTStalker wrote: flash had just secured a min-only base, and imo, the battle at 7 was gradually going his way. really lame decision If by "secure" you mean "Going to be forced to lift whenever Jaedong decides to attack" you're absolutely correct. | ||
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Foucault
Sweden2826 Posts
First of all I think you make way too many assumptions, and that's what wrong with this discussion to start with. Everyone wants to rationalize and reach an consensus on what to think about the game. Fact is that we can never say who would have won the game no matter how much we analyze the VOD. Many of the people analyzing the VOD and drawing conclusions aren't exactly good Starcraft players either or are relatively new to progaming and Starcraft gameplay (couple of years tops). While I agree that JD had an advantage if you look at the game in a very non-dynamic way, it doesn't portray what could've happened in actual gameplay. Sometimes people seem to theorize too much and don't take into account players actions, their micro/macro, decisions etc. Now: What if Flash had 2 dropships making/done in his base? It's not that unlikely considering the big map and he knows that he has to harass JD hard at this point. We saw two dropships in the game before as well. Considering also the fact that he didn't went tanks and mainly used his gas for his two starports, he definately had the gas to do it. Also, you assume that Flash was gonna go back to his 9 o clock expo and defend there. What if he was gonna regroup and engage 7 o clock again? So, let's say that he gets two dropships with m&m and drops JD's main and 3 o clock for instance while at the same time engaging his 7 o clock with his m&m forces. This could easily be a big turning point in the game if that was the case. It can be very hard to defend 3 places at the same time for any player. Also m&m are typically microed quite well by Flash. No one knows how a forthcoming battle at 7 o clock would have played out. Bottomline is that Flash is capable of doing these huge turnarounds in games consistently when you get the feeling that he is behind. It's like he says "alright, this is bullshit. I'm gonna kick ass now" and boom! Just saying. It's not as clear cut as you make it seem and it will never be. Trying to reach an "objective" consensus through analysis is dead born imo. We will never know what could have happened and I think it's best to realize that. | ||
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koreasilver
9109 Posts
First of all I think you make way too many assumptions That's funny because... What if Flash had 2 dropships making/done in his base? It's not that unlikely considering the big map and he knows that he has to harass JD hard at this point. So, let's say that he gets two dropships with m&m and drops JD's main and 3 o clock for instance while at the same time engaging his 7 o clock with his m&m forces. This could easily be a big turning point in the game if that was the case. We saw two dropships in the game before as well. No we didn't. Not to mention that you're completely disregarding all the analysis done by countless people today that concluded that Flash's economy was dry. Your entire post is far more speculative and revolves around more assumptions than the arguments that you have derided as having "too many assumptions". | ||
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Appendix
Sweden979 Posts
On January 24 2010 11:18 FakeSteve[TPR] wrote: of course you would, there's no way that everyone can be satisfied after something like a blackout happens. that is the entire reason the decision needs to be made as objectively as possible, and that's why there should have already been a precedent set that crash equals rematch. it's a matter of admin consistency & KeSPA owning the responsibility of administrating these leagues fairly without question. Ofc this has to be assessed on a case-to-case basis. It happens so seldom and each case is so unique that by just stating something like crash=rematch would be too unprecise. There would always be circumstances which would make the rule unfitting. It is much better to have the objective rule that kespa judges have the final word, and perhaps a framework of what they should take into consideration when making their decision. The important thing out of an admin perspective is to make the most reasonable decision as possible in the least amount of time. That is precisely what they did, and given the situation kespa handled it well. What didn't work however, was the respect for the decision. There has to be a mutual understanding that, whatever the judges decision is, then and there is not the place to disagree. It should be clear that if you are not content with the ruling, a formal complaint has to be handed in later. What Flash's dad and all others did, raising the commotion, was very disrespectful towards kespa, the audience, MBC, and not least, the players. | ||
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Foucault
Sweden2826 Posts
On January 24 2010 11:46 koreasilver wrote: That's funny because... No we didn't. Not to mention that you're completely disregarding all the analysis done by countless people today that concluded that Flash's economy was dry. We didn't see 2 dropships in the game before? My eyes must suck then. No, I've read up on the analysis in all the threads, and I understand the situation but Starcraft is a dynamic game and things happen outside of strict theory. | ||
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Avidkeystamper
United States8556 Posts
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KwarK
United States43907 Posts
On January 24 2010 11:44 Foucault wrote: Now: What if Flash had 2 dropships making/done in his base? It's not that unlikely considering the big map and he knows that he has to harass JD hard at this point. We saw two dropships in the game before as well. Considering also the fact that he didn't went tanks and mainly used his gas for his two starports, he definately had the gas to do it. Also, you assume that Flash was gonna go back to his 9 o clock expo and defend there. What if he was gonna regroup and engage 7 o clock again? So, let's say that he gets two dropships with m&m and drops JD's main and 3 o clock for instance while at the same time engaging his 7 o clock with his m&m forces. This could easily be a big turning point in the game if that was the case. It can be very hard to defend 3 places at the same time for any player. Flash didn't have the units. Flash didn't have the money for the units. Flash didn't have the mineral patches for the money for the units. If Flash moves a single marine from his min only he loses it 20 seconds after the blackout to JaeDongs 3 ultralisks and 2 defilers. If Flash concentrates every marine he has there, he still loses in 20 seconds after the blackout to JaeDongs 3 ultralisks and 2 defilers. | ||
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KwarK
United States43907 Posts
On January 24 2010 11:52 Foucault wrote: We didn't see 2 dropships in the game before? My eyes must suck then. No, I've read up on the analysis in all the threads, and I understand the situation but Starcraft is a dynamic game and things happen outside of strict theory. The game can be unpredictable at times but it rarely violates the correlation between mineral income and unit production. It's that correlation that doomed Flash. | ||
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Tien
Russian Federation4447 Posts
On January 24 2010 11:44 Foucault wrote: Actually I don't agree much with the OP, although well written. First of all I think you make way too many assumptions, and that's what wrong with this discussion to start with. Everyone wants to rationalize and reach an consensus on what to think about the game. Fact is that we can never say who would have won the game no matter how much we analyze the replays. Many of the people analyzing the replays and drawing conclusions aren't exactly good Starcraft players either or are relatively new to progaming and Starcraft gameplay (couple of years tops). While I agree that JD had an advantage if you look at the game in a very non-dynamic way, it doesn't portray what could've happened in actual gameplay. Sometimes people seem to theorize too much and don't take into account players actions, their micro/macro, decisions etc. Now: What if Flash had 2 dropships making/done in his base? It's not that unlikely considering the big map and he knows that he has to harass JD hard at this point. We saw two dropships in the game before as well. Considering also the fact that he didn't went tanks and mainly used his gas for his two starports, he definately had the gas to do it. Also, you assume that Flash was gonna go back to his 9 o clock expo and defend there. What if he was gonna regroup and engage 7 o clock again? So, let's say that he gets two dropships with m&m and drops JD's main and 3 o clock for instance while at the same time engaging his 7 o clock with his m&m forces. This could easily be a big turning point in the game if that was the case. It can be very hard to defend 3 places at the same time for any player. Also m&m are typically microed quite well by Flash. No one knows how a forthcoming battle at 7 o clock would have played out. Bottomline is that Flash is capable of doing these huge turnarounds in games consistently when you get the feeling that he is behind. It's like he says "alright, this is bullshit. I'm gonna kick ass now" and boom! Just saying. It's not as clear cut as you make it seem and it will never be. Trying to reach an "objective" consensus through analysis is dead born imo. We will never know what could have happened and I think it's best to realize that. I'll go through this 1 last time. At time of blackout Flash has (all supported by FACTS from the VOD): - 12 Marines / 9 medics for Flash at 9 expo - 20 marines at natural - 5 vessels at 9 expo - 2 vessels or 2 dropships at natural (wasn't sure which unit but 100% 2 units exited the starport in Vod) Jaedong has - 2 defilers - 3 ultras (weak) - 10 lings - 8 scourge Another fact: Between 17:00-18:00 Jaedong produces 4-5 ultras / 20 lings / 2 defilers / 4 scourge. 1) What if Flash had 2 dropships? While engaging 7 expo with everything he had for 2:30 full minutes, why would he build dropships in the middle of it? He doesn't need dropships for that expo. He would have to be convinced that his attack on 7 was no longer going to work to actually go produce those 2 dropships. But then if he was convinced his attack was no longer going to work, why send another 20 marines in there? If he did build 2 dropships. He would have had to load up his entire army at his natural (whatever was left) and do a 1 time attack on Jaedong 3 expo or main. If you watch the last .1 second of the vod, he was moving his army back out again to reinforce the 9 expo. Clearly he wasn't loading up dropships. He doesn't have enough units to simultaneously defend 9 (with 12 marines) and go for an offensive. Dropships don't make any sense. 2) What if Flash regroups his 20 marines + 12 marines + 9 medics + 7 vessels and attacks Jaedong? This would have taken him 30 seconds to regroup + re-engage Jaedong. This is all facts. Between 17:00-18:00 Jaedong adds 20 lings / 4 ultras / 4 scourge / 1-2 defilers PER MINUTE. So let's divide that by 2 and add those armies to what Jaedong currently has. Every minute goes by, Flash produces exponentially LESS while Jaedong produces exponentially MORE. Flash must take out: - 20 lings - 5-6 ultras - 8 scourge - 3-4 defilers - 3 sunks. - Nydus canal + constant zerg speed reinforcements. With - 30 marines - 9 medics - 7 vessels. Assuming Flash engages Jaedong at 7 one last time and that battle lasts 30 seconds minimum, Jaedong is adding ANOTHER 10 lings / 2 ultras / 1 defiler. And considering the fact that Flash COULD NOT break down 7 with substantially less Jaedong troops, what makes you think this last push will do it? Because he's "Flash"? That doesn't work when you're up against "Jaedong". All Jaedong has to do is throw down 1-2 swarms in case Flash irradiates them and buys himself another 30 seconds. Another 30 seconds brings us another round of reinforcements. 3) What if Flash waits longer than 30 seconds? 1 minute? Now he's up against 10 cows / 30 lings / 3-4 defilers / 12 scourge. It gets worse and worse. | ||
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Oystein
Norway1602 Posts
On January 24 2010 11:44 Foucault wrote: Many of the people analyzing the VOD and drawing conclusions aren't exactly good Starcraft players either or are relatively new to progaming and Starcraft gameplay (couple of years tops). Well everyone who actually is good at StarCraft that I have seen comment on this all agrees that Jaedong was in a very good spot and very close to winning the game. Some think it should have been a regame, but all agree that Jaedong was firmly ahead in the game. | ||
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Zozma
United States1626 Posts
So no matter how bad it sounds, Flash's actual situation in the game was most likely even worse. | ||
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hoborg
United States430 Posts
it's important for a governing body to have clear boundaries and a system in place for every situation. their decisions shouldn't rely on something as convoluted as an advantage in a StarCraft match. Agreed that there needs to be a clearly defined system for the situation. But if the system is "referee's decision to award to who they feel had the advantage", I think that's valid, and whatever the referee decides is fair, since by participating in the match the players have already agreed to abide by the ref. If KeSPA just made shit up on the spot, and there was absolutely no precident to awarding a win, then I agree that they fucked up huge, no matter what the advantage. I don't know which applies since I don't know the kespa rules. | ||
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KwarK
United States43907 Posts
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blade55555
United States17423 Posts
So did you not notice the 2 un irradiated defilers coming and flash moving to DEFEND his mineral expansion? I am going to guess not. | ||
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