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On September 24 2013 21:26 Encdalf wrote:
I don't think that there will be re-elections. Why should there?
If CDU/CSU doesn't find a coalition partner, they have to govern as a minority government, since I don't see how a coalition of Linke, SPD and Greens would work.
I agree that re-elections are very unlikely, but maybe for a different reason:
If we would have re-elections, there's a decent chance that the FDP will get more thant 5% this time. And this would mean a safe majority for CDU-FDP, unless the AfD also makes it. So for both the SPD and the greens it's either coalition with the CDU (and possible facing the fate of the SPD 4 years ago / the FDP this time), or re-election with the most likely outcome to be the continuation of what we had for the last 4 years. Neither option looks very pleasant; and red-red-green is as of now just a phantom the FDP and CDU conjure to scare voters from the center away from voting a left-ish party.
Real dilemma for SPD especially, as they are supposed to be first go-to-option of the CDU. Whatever they do, the majority of their supporters probably won't like it.
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On September 24 2013 22:20 Espelz wrote:Show nested quote +On September 24 2013 21:32 Skilledblob wrote:On September 24 2013 21:26 Encdalf wrote:
I don't think that there will be re-elections. Why should there?
If CDU/CSU doesn't find a coalition partner, they have to govern as a minority government, since I don't see how a coalition of Linke, SPD and Greens would work. if they tried a minority government they'd have big problems because the CDU does not have the majority in the Bundesrat either so they would not be able to do anything. I dont think that there will be new elections. It's more likely that the SPD will cave in and do a coalition and after that they can disband the SPD at the next elections I'd agree on that. The question remaining will be how the negotiations turn out. Despite the huge success in the election, the SPD should be in a pretty strong position in this one, just because it seems to be the only possibility to prevent a new election.
actually I am sure CDU would want re-elections on the reason of SPD/Grüne/Linke refused to work together.
SPD is in a horrible spot..., CDU are the lucky ones
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The best that the SPD could do is to make rediculous demands and the Greens go together with the Union. This has a lot of advantages:
-CDU will have a very hard in the next 4 years because of the minority in the Bundesrat
-The Greens can get the same content out of the coalition negotiations as the SPD would like to (not to the same extend but still...)
-They avoid risking a comeback from FDP/AfD through reelection
-The SPD will maybe get some votes back from the Greens
-They have a real try in 4 years with red/red/green and stand true to their excluding this time
The only disadvantage is that some people will probably say that they are avoiding their responsibility but I wonder who could make such claims and have an use out of it.
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CDU and The Greens will never come to frution. Its just the CDU would just mess with their base voters. They wont get any laws through the Bundesrat. They cant be that stupid. Same would go for red, red, green.
Best thing what could happen would be a reelction. Worst thing big coalation. CDU and SPD together would be 4 lost years. Nothing would happen. It would be a constant pissing contest and in the end, they always choose the middle ground, which is in most szenarios by far the worst option.
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Die Linke into the government? Pray, which ressort would you give them to fill? Foreign policy? Finance? Defense?
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Since when are coalition talks initiated by petitions? Sorry but red-red-green is a very bad idea, and the vast majority of people agrees.
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rofl of course the majority says they prefer cdu/spd cuz the majority voted for them
shits so damn irrelevant
my biggest fear are reelections and ppl just voting for cdu cuz they cba going a third time so they get the absolute majority
on the other hand, i guess cdu will also lose alot of votes cuz stupid ppl cba going a second time
i dunno what to hope for tbh
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The SPD will go into a coalition. They just have to create a good show about their internal battle around this to make people somewhat believe that they don't really want to do it. The somewhat fake drama should look as if they are only going into the coalition because they want to do the best for Germany and are sacrificing themselves for the greater good. That might work to make people believe there's some sort of separate "real" SPD that would do things a lot different if they get more votes in four years.
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On September 25 2013 03:49 teddyoojo wrote:rofl of course the majority says they prefer cdu/spd cuz the majority voted for them shits so damn irrelevant my biggest fear are reelections and ppl just voting for cdu cuz they cba going a third time so they get the absolute majority on the other hand, i guess cdu will also lose alot of votes cuz stupid ppl cba going a second time i dunno what to hope for tbh
CDU/CSU 41.5% + SPD 25.7% = 67.2%
64% think they would form a good coalition.
64 / 67.2 = 95% of the people that voted for either SPD/CDU/CSU agree with this coalition.
SPD 25.7% + Die Linke 8.6% + The Greens 8.4% = 42.7%
25% think they would form a good coalition.
25/42.7 = 58% of the people that voted for SPD/Linke/Greens agree with this coalition.
Do you see how its relevant now?
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On September 25 2013 04:10 SpikeStarcraft wrote:Show nested quote +On September 25 2013 03:49 teddyoojo wrote:rofl of course the majority says they prefer cdu/spd cuz the majority voted for them shits so damn irrelevant my biggest fear are reelections and ppl just voting for cdu cuz they cba going a third time so they get the absolute majority on the other hand, i guess cdu will also lose alot of votes cuz stupid ppl cba going a second time i dunno what to hope for tbh CDU/CSU 41.5% + SPD 25.7% = 67.2% 64% think they would form a good coalition. 64 / 67.2 = 95% of the people that voted for either SPD/CDU/CSU agree with this coalition. SPD 25.7% + Die Linke 8.6% + The Greens 8.4% = 42.7% 25% think they would form a good coalition. 25/42.7 = 58% of the people that voted for SPD/Linke/Greens agree with this coalition. Do you see how its relevant now?
Well your logic is a little bit flawed, because the question 'do you like this coaltition?' wasn't exclusively answered by voters of the respective parties.(Meaning that an FDP voter would probaly be okay with a CDU/SPD government, but not with red-red-green) I'm an SPD member and from what i can tell the internal preferences aren't so clear, there are quite a few people who would like a left wing coalition, if 'Die Linke' would be more pragmantic and cut some of the nonsense out of their program.
It's not just show, many members of the party don't want a CDU/SPD government, because they fear a turnout like 2009 in the next elections.
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On September 25 2013 04:19 Nyxisto wrote:Show nested quote +On September 25 2013 04:10 SpikeStarcraft wrote:On September 25 2013 03:49 teddyoojo wrote:rofl of course the majority says they prefer cdu/spd cuz the majority voted for them shits so damn irrelevant my biggest fear are reelections and ppl just voting for cdu cuz they cba going a third time so they get the absolute majority on the other hand, i guess cdu will also lose alot of votes cuz stupid ppl cba going a second time i dunno what to hope for tbh CDU/CSU 41.5% + SPD 25.7% = 67.2% 64% think they would form a good coalition. 64 / 67.2 = 95% of the people that voted for either SPD/CDU/CSU agree with this coalition. SPD 25.7% + Die Linke 8.6% + The Greens 8.4% = 42.7% 25% think they would form a good coalition. 25/42.7 = 58% of the people that voted for SPD/Linke/Greens agree with this coalition. Do you see how its relevant now? Well your logic is a little bit flawed, because the question 'do you like this coaltition?' wasn't exclusively answered by voters of the respective parties.(Meaning that an FDP voter would probaly be okay with a CDU/SPD government, but not with red-red-green) I'm an SPD member and from what i can tell the internal preferences aren't so clear, there are quite a few people who would like a left wing coalition, if 'Die Linke' would be more pragmantic and cut some of the nonsense out of their program. It's not just show, many members of the party don't want a CDU/SPD government, because they fear a turnout like 2009 in the next elections.
Yes thats true but even in worst case if all of the 15% who voted for a party outside of parliament voted in favor of CDU/SPD then it would still be 72.9% acceptance. (64-15)/67.2= 72.9
Thats still better than Red/Red/Green and it applies to them too to some extent.
You could also argue that voters of AFD would go to die Linke because some of them are protest voters. and voters of the pirate party are more on the left spectrum.
I agree the SPD is probably very torn between those two options. In that unstable situation it would be very risky to form a coalition with only a small majority in the bundestag. For the SPD its kind of a lose/lose situation.
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On September 25 2013 03:49 teddyoojo wrote:rofl of course the majority says they prefer cdu/spd cuz the majority voted for them shits so damn irrelevant my biggest fear are reelections and ppl just voting for cdu cuz they cba going a third time so they get the absolute majority on the other hand, i guess cdu will also lose alot of votes cuz stupid ppl cba going a second time i dunno what to hope for tbh
No way there will be reelections, there is a like 67% coalition possible nearly all voters are satisfied with.
CDU+SPD is 99% certain.
Would give merkel an excuse to move slightly towards the left as well and contribute a bit more for europe wich is what all the banks and france+southern countrys want, and wich maybe is neccesary as well.
Think a new government within 1 week, dont see a reason why this should take long.
(not what i am hoping for btw but thats something different)
Dont think the SPD has a choise in this btw, there are no other options besides reelection wich i doubt will be favourable for the left, there is a change afd might make 5% then since they where so close last time, and the left could be hurt as well because they refused an obvious coalition. Reelection will only make cdu bigger and the left smaller.
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CDU/SPD coalition would make it possible to change the constitution without having to seek the consent of the opposition. This somehow scares me.
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On September 25 2013 04:46 SpikeStarcraft wrote:Show nested quote +On September 25 2013 04:19 Nyxisto wrote:On September 25 2013 04:10 SpikeStarcraft wrote:On September 25 2013 03:49 teddyoojo wrote:rofl of course the majority says they prefer cdu/spd cuz the majority voted for them shits so damn irrelevant my biggest fear are reelections and ppl just voting for cdu cuz they cba going a third time so they get the absolute majority on the other hand, i guess cdu will also lose alot of votes cuz stupid ppl cba going a second time i dunno what to hope for tbh CDU/CSU 41.5% + SPD 25.7% = 67.2% 64% think they would form a good coalition. 64 / 67.2 = 95% of the people that voted for either SPD/CDU/CSU agree with this coalition. SPD 25.7% + Die Linke 8.6% + The Greens 8.4% = 42.7% 25% think they would form a good coalition. 25/42.7 = 58% of the people that voted for SPD/Linke/Greens agree with this coalition. Do you see how its relevant now? Well your logic is a little bit flawed, because the question 'do you like this coaltition?' wasn't exclusively answered by voters of the respective parties.(Meaning that an FDP voter would probaly be okay with a CDU/SPD government, but not with red-red-green) I'm an SPD member and from what i can tell the internal preferences aren't so clear, there are quite a few people who would like a left wing coalition, if 'Die Linke' would be more pragmantic and cut some of the nonsense out of their program. It's not just show, many members of the party don't want a CDU/SPD government, because they fear a turnout like 2009 in the next elections. Yes thats true but even in worst case if all of the 15% who voted for a party outside of parliament voted in favor of CDU/SPD then it would still be 72.9% acceptance. (64-15)/67.2= 72.9 Thats still better than Red/Red/Green and it applies to them too to some extent. You could also argue that voters of AFD would go to die Linke because some of them are protest voters. and voters of the pirate party are more on the left spectrum. I agree the SPD is probably very torn between those two options. In that unstable situation it would be very risky to form a coalition with only a small majority in the bundestag. For the SPD its kind of a lose/lose situation.
Actually you could say it's lose/lose/lose. They can
- form a grand coalition. Been there, done that, cost them votes on the left fringe.
- form a red/red/green coalition. Been there, done that in local elections in Hessen, cost them votes in the middle.
- try to form a red/red/green coalition, fail quickly and messily before it even comes to the first parliamentary votes. Will lead to reelections costing them votes in the middle and leading to FDP likely and AfD possibly entering parliament.
For someone thoroughly fed up with the Post-Schröder-SPD, the potential for Schadenfreude is endless.
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Well, technically there's also the option of a minority government, i.e. CDU/CSU as government, all others in opposition, and Merkel&co get the (few) needed votes on a case-by-case basis depending on the specific decision at stake instead of simply coopting whoever shows least reserve towards them for whatever decisions come along over the next years.
Of course, this won't happen since it's easier to convince sb. once and be done with it instead of properly arguing specifics again and again; but at least on paper that doesn't look too bad either, especially since the CDU/CSU is literally almost able to reign alone, so even the pretense of a 'cooperative' coalition is kind of silly.
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I'd say chances for a reelection are about 0.01%. Red-red-green has so much to lose. If FDP and AFD came into the Bundestag because of that red-red-green would lose their "majority" again. Maybe they do not want to rule together but they surely do not want those other parties in the parliament. I would also expect that the greens would be the biggest loser because right now they have no face (K. Göring-Eckhardt but they didn't hype her nearly enough. In the end it was all about Trittin.)
The only left party who could win are the pirates and only if Marina Weisband came back because she's extremely popular.
My preferred option would be a CDU minority government. There wouldn't be a total standstill. SPD can't go NO F*** YOU for 4 years or they'll lose voters again and again. In this composition they had the chance to be against whatever the CDU wants but have a few people vote for it if they expect it to be popular with the people. That would show their true wishes but signalize that they take responsibility whenever needed.
They could also get new members into the spotlight because everybody who is active now will always be remembered as "beaten by Merkel".
Same goes for the greens.
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On September 25 2013 04:19 Nyxisto wrote:Show nested quote +On September 25 2013 04:10 SpikeStarcraft wrote:On September 25 2013 03:49 teddyoojo wrote:rofl of course the majority says they prefer cdu/spd cuz the majority voted for them shits so damn irrelevant my biggest fear are reelections and ppl just voting for cdu cuz they cba going a third time so they get the absolute majority on the other hand, i guess cdu will also lose alot of votes cuz stupid ppl cba going a second time i dunno what to hope for tbh CDU/CSU 41.5% + SPD 25.7% = 67.2% 64% think they would form a good coalition. 64 / 67.2 = 95% of the people that voted for either SPD/CDU/CSU agree with this coalition. SPD 25.7% + Die Linke 8.6% + The Greens 8.4% = 42.7% 25% think they would form a good coalition. 25/42.7 = 58% of the people that voted for SPD/Linke/Greens agree with this coalition. Do you see how its relevant now? Well your logic is a little bit flawed, because the question 'do you like this coaltition?' wasn't exclusively answered by voters of the respective parties.(Meaning that an FDP voter would probaly be okay with a CDU/SPD government, but not with red-red-green) I'm an SPD member and from what i can tell the internal preferences aren't so clear, there are quite a few people who would like a left wing coalition, if 'Die Linke' would be more pragmantic and cut some of the nonsense out of their program.
People would like a left wing coalition if Die Linke would get rid of all communists, like the KPF and all the others, stop working with the DKP and stop supporting the "Junge Welt", and then properly handle their past. Then they people might accept a red red green coalition
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EPT
