On September 03 2013 22:40 plgElwood wrote: Stefan Raab (Comedian) was moderator on the "Tv-Duell" and won it for me.
He asked Steinbrück (SPD candidate) what the people have to vote if they want to keep Merkel as chancelor and him as vc or minister in a big coalition of SPD and CDU/CSU, because actually this would be a very good outcome for most germans (me included). Steinbrück declined a "big coalition" Raab asked him if he wants to "rule himself as the King of Kotlett or do nothing, even if in all positions both parties mostly agree" Steinbrück said yes.
Both big parties (SPD, CDU/CSU) want -Stable energy costs -more Wind/Solar -Less coal/gas -No Atomicenergy past 2020 or sth. -Wealth for everyon who earns it -=More Work, more money -better Education, and equal education -More Peace -Stable Euro -No more debts -No more foreign wars -No more economy crysis caused by Banks -better healtcare for everyone -Fair payment for work in needed social fields because of demographic change (more old people need care etc.) -No espionage on every citizen (CDU Gov lets NSA unpunished, SPD desperately wants "vorratsdatenspeicherung", so both lie in that point)
And they are not even far away from each other in the means to achieve theses goals. So what really grinds my gears is, that Steinbrück refuses a big coalition.
Problem : CDU/CSU can´t rule alone and FDP is too weak SPD/Grüne would go together but might fail.
Also the Grüne is obsolete because the big parties have made Energy and Enviroment plans of their own.
The last grand coalition between Union and SPD went catastrophically for the SPD, and she still hasn't recovered from it. It would be next to suicide for the party to agree to another grand coalition under a Merkel administration. If I were in Steinbruecks team I would actually worry about getting results just a bit too good on the 22nd, and be forced into another coalition with the Union by public pressure.
Maybe we as the voters should worry less about the fate of parties and more about the issues. If the SPD would shrink again, but delivers good results, they served the people. I still think this is what parties should do.
Even looking from that perspective, what could the SPD possibly hope to accomplish in a Merkel-led coalition? Merkel would probably yield a compromise on minimum wage to the SPD, but that's about it. She certainly won't take back anything from the previous years (tax breaks, kitchen premium, much less even Hartz4), and on Euro-crisis issues she won't give the SPD anything substantial either. Would that coalition really be the SPD representing their voter's will?
They have to do that or accept red-red-green. Everyone knows that SPD and Grüne will not get enough votes to elect Peer Steinbrück als Kanzler.
This week will be the last during which nation wide polls on the election will be published. There is no law for this, but (I believe) all polling institutes decided to not publish anything 2 weeks or closer to the election after the 2005 disaster. + Show Spoiler [2005] +
On the eve of the 2005 election every institute predicted a comfortable lead of 7-9% for the Union. A prediction that turned out way off: On election night Union and SPD were as equal as it gets, both exiting polls at 34%.
What happened over the past 6 months of campaigning in terms of polls and predictions:
Union and SPD more or less unchanged at around 40% and 25%, respectively.
As many had expected, the FDP recovered and is just above the 5% threshold again at 5-6%
Greens are the big losers of this campaign, dropping to as low as 9%, down from a safe 15% when campaigning started
The Left gained ground, and is in fact in the best shape they have been since their drop after the 2009 election: 7-9%
Pirates remain unchanged at around 2-3%
Similarly, the AfD remained at around 3% since their founding 5 months ago.
However, as the 2005 incident showed, polling as been more and more unreliable in national elections. At this point, the result is as open as it was 6 months ago: Angel Merkel will be chancellor, but what coalition will support her administration is still entirely open. Possible options:
Union + FDP: The current majority coalition. However it is unlikely that they will get this majority again in two weeks. Union + SPD: The "grand coalition": Definitely would be enough, but the SPD has still not even recovered from their last grand coalition. Doubtful they would agree to it again. SPD + Greens: Not going to happen. SPD + Left + Greens: Unlikely, as the SPD has ruled out any cooperation with the Left nationally SPD + FDP + Greens: The "traffic light" coalition. Unlikely as especially the Greens and the FDP maintain a healthy hate towards each other, despite their programs overlapping in parts. Union + FDP + Greens: The "Jamaica" coalition: Even more unlikely than the "traffic light", for the same reason. Union + Greens: Yet even more unlikely as there is still little common ground between conservatives and greens, and much ideologically grounded aversion.
In the end, it might come down to the grand coalition as the only viable option. This would put the SPD in a terrible situation, as they have very little to gain from being part of an administration under Merkel's heel. They might be forced into it regardless though if it really turns out to be the only way to form a majority.
Of course, another possibility would be a Merkel minority administration, however that is something entirely new to federal elections and very unusual in German politics in general. Since Germany's parliament doesn't have a whip concept comparable to other countries it is often hard enough for the administration to get their majority in line.
On September 12 2013 20:15 zatic wrote: Where we are two weeks to election
This week will be the last during which nation wide polls on the election will be published. There is no law for this, but (I believe) all polling institutes decided to not publish anything 2 weeks or closer to the election after the 2005 disaster. + Show Spoiler [2005] +
On the eve of the 2005 election every institute predicted a comfortable lead of 7-9% for the Union. A prediction that turned out way off: On election night Union and SPD were as equal as it gets, both exiting polls at 34%.
What happened over the past 6 months of campaigning in terms of polls and predictions:
Union and SPD more or less unchanged at around 40% and 25%, respectively.
As many had expected, the FDP recovered and is just above the 5% threshold again at 5-6%
Greens are the big losers of this campaign, dropping to as low as 9%, down from a safe 15% when campaigning started
The Left gained ground, and is in fact in the best shape they have been since their drop after the 2009 election: 7-9%
Pirates remain unchanged at around 2-3%
Similarly, the AfD remained at around 3% since their founding 5 months ago.
However, as the 2005 incident showed, polling as been more and more unreliable in national elections. At this point, the result is as open as it was 6 months ago: Angel Merkel will be chancellor, but what coalition will support her administration is still entirely open. Possible options:
Union + FDP: The current majority coalition. However it is unlikely that they will get this majority again in two weeks. Union + SPD: The "grand coalition": Definitely would be enough, but the SPD has still not even recovered from their last grand coalition. Doubtful they would agree to it again. SPD + Greens: Not going to happen. SPD + Left + Greens: Unlikely, as the SPD has ruled out any cooperation with the Left nationally SPD + FDP + Greens: The "traffic light" coalition. Unlikely as especially the Greens and the FDP maintain a healthy hate towards each other, despite their programs overlapping in parts. Union + FDP + Greens: The "Jamaica" coalition: Even more unlikely than the "traffic light", for the same reason. Union + Greens: Yet even more unlikely as there is still little common ground between conservatives and greens, and much ideologically grounded aversion.
In the end, it might come down to the grand coalition as the only viable option. This would put the SPD in a terrible situation, as they have very little to gain from being part of an administration under Merkel's heel. They might be forced into it regardless though if it really turns out to be the only way to form a majority.
Of course, another possibility would be a Merkel minority administration, however that is something entirely new to federal elections and very unusual in German politics in general. Since Germany's parliament doesn't have a whip concept comparable to other countries it is often hard enough for the administration to get their majority in line.
Nice summary but you are missing the 2nd or 3rd most likely outcome: new elections.
You are right that in a great coalition the SPD will be the looser for almost sure. It would lower their chances 2017 massively and maybe in the next election Merkel will not candidate which would increase the chances a lot for the SPD. But within a great coalition they would always get the bad end.
Which led new elections to a relative high chances in the following scenario: It´s not enough for Union + FDP but not enough for SPD + Gruene either. Naturally and historically a great coalition comes out of these situations but if the SPD refuses to do that from the reasons mentioned there are 2 realistic options left:
A minority goverment or new elections
The minority goverment would only work for the SPD+Gruene with the help of "Die Linke (lefts)". It would work in a way that SPD+Gruen dont have enough votes in the parlament to make it by them selfs but Die Linke gives them their votes without coalating with them. But all of them had refused to do that. Union don´t have that option because there is just no one that could help.
New elections are a possibility, but a remote one. The way to new elections goes through several rounds of electing the chancellor, and ultimately is the decision of the president.
Essentially the president has to decide if a minority government or new elections will happen after parliament fails to elect a chancellor with absolute majority. I find it a very unlikely outcome, especially since it is not definite at all if the new elections will solve the coalition mess or make it even worse.
As Bleakill said, a SPD-greens minority government is highly unlikely, but not completely impossible. At least to me it seems to be more probable than a CDU(+FDP) minority government; all other parties would basically loose their face if they were doing anything supportive of the CDU or the FDP especially. It think that if the current coalition doesn't get the majority again, a lot of things can happen. A grand coalition is imho still the most probable outcome, but I don't feel -contrary than before previous elections- that it would be inavoidable or "without altenatives". Probably it still is, however.
I love how all the big contradictions - which makes a coaliton seemingly impossible - between the union and the greens are all outside of environmental topics. Does that mean that a non-left-wring pro-environmental German government is impossible?
Anyways, looking forward to how the pirates will fare. If by some chance they do manage to get into the parlament, it will make things even messier.
On September 03 2013 23:57 {ToT}ColmA wrote: What the left want does always sound kinda nice, problem is, they can't pay for what they promise (for the most part) [...]
The other parties obviously don't know how to either - and how their concepts work out we already have proof of (looking at the ever increasing national debt).
On September 04 2013 20:55 Yuljan wrote: on die Linke topic I respect them for not changing their opinion every 2 seconds but if they ever get voted into power I will consider armed rebellion.
On August 30 2013 05:59 Mandalor wrote: There's only so much you can put on a poster. They're all dumb
Yeah, well, last time die Linke overdid it slightly.
"Reichtum für alle" vs. "Die Reichtum besteuern" (wealth for all vs. taxes on the wealth(y))
Well, not all posters are directed at everyone. A politically informed subject will consider them dumb, but a vast part of the population does not actively search for information, and they are the persons who carry the slogans to the regular's tables (Stammtischen) where the debates are led a little different than in other parts of the population. At least that's my explanation for some aggravatingly stupid slogans.^^
Regarding "taxes on the wealthy": Who else to tax? The poor don't have it (we can't take it there) and the middle class is getting smaller and smaller and already paying dearly. "Some" (anecdotal basis here) rich people would rather pay more taxes than renting apartments in working class districts "to lay low when the shit hits the fan" - that's something an acquaintance told me at least, I can't speak for the rich.
On August 30 2013 03:13 Dyme wrote: I would love to vote for The Left or the Pirates. Every other vote is for Merkel anyway.
If only they weren't such enormous monkeys. When I read their demands on the posters everywhere, I just don't feel like they have any connection to reality at all. For whom can I vote if I want actual social democracy?
The posters might not be directed at you (see my theory above), I think they are a struggle in a different arena. Regarding social democracy: I see it this way: Getting die Linke into a coalition would just result in an influence, as they are only a minor part in a coalition. If their influence pulled the system enough towards what "social" stands for you, you could still vote something different next election. Four years is not a very long time where a minor influence can possibly go overboard and result in a planned economy or whatever someone might fear. I would love to vote individual resorts! The Pirates as a very specialised party could have their place, our system is not very much tailored towards specialism :\
I read some interesting article (German), written by the Financial Times Deutschland's founder Wolfgang Münchau, where he states die Linke and (to a lesser extent but still valid) die Grünen have the most intelligent analysis of the economical crisis. I studied social economics and was mostly flabbergasted by what the Merkel administration was doing, so getting confirmation from someone who I'd consider being biased towards "the other side" was good for my own sanity....
Bavaria just went full Bavaria... so an absolute majority for CSU in Bavaria, could mean that now some will give their votes to the FDP instead in one week. Lets see.
Die Partei has got some nice humour, on the question to implement a general Autobahn speedlimit or not they answered: "The Führer would turn in his grave."
On September 17 2013 09:34 Daumen wrote: Just did the Wahl-o-Mat test, my 3 closest friends and me had most similarities to Die Partei,funny enough:O
I believe they said somewhere that they try to "solve" the Wahl-o-Mat. I don't know if that is even possible, but from what I hear they score high with both many lefties and righties, so maybe they figured it out^^
Im getting really excited for the election, cant wait to see the results ... I dont want Merkel to get a 3rd term :x Hope to see another Chancellor.
Not saying that Gysi must be Chancellor but I like the way he talks in the Bundestag. If he would have been in the Kanzler-Duell it would have been more interesting and more heated (in a good way).
On September 19 2013 02:56 Daumen wrote: Im getting really excited for the election, cant wait to see the results ... I dont want Merkel to get a 3rd term :x Hope to see another Chancellor.
Not saying that Gysi must be Chancellor but I like the way he talks in the Bundestag. If he would have been in the Kanzler-Duell it would have been more interesting and more heated (in a good way).
If he'd only be in another party though :/.
EDIT: I obviously don't fully agree with him, I actually disagree often with him, but I think some of the bigger parties could benefit from some of his viewpoints. Even though I'm not sure if he'd still talk the way he does if he wouldn't be in the constant opposition party that will never reign :/(actually I'm pretty sure that he wouldn't, on some points at least).
Will be funny to see what happens. The 3 most likely options are probably 1. CDU+FDP 2. CDU+SPD 3. SPD+Grüne+Linke
hoping for the 3rd option, thinking it will be a the 2nd.
This boggles my mind. I didn't come to Germany from an "ex"-communist country, just to have the questionable "pleasure" to be governed by other "communists"...
Also, I can promise you that if SPD+Grüne+Linke form the governement, Die Linke will fulfill its current agenda exactly as well as FDP fulfilled their agenda in this term... The only thing that might happen is that they could enact a minimum wage. Even then, the consensus those parties would meet will probably be similar to the consensus SPD and CDU had about the VAT (Mehrwertsteuer) during the grand coalition (SPD - no raise in VAT (16%) + CDU - raise to 18% = consensus: raise to 19% -.-). Meaning: I'd be surprises if they actually raised the minimal wage above €8/h.
Will be funny to see what happens. The 3 most likely options are probably 1. CDU+FDP 2. CDU+SPD 3. SPD+Grüne+Linke
hoping for the 3rd option, thinking it will be a the 2nd.
This boggles my mind. I didn't come to Germany from an "ex"-communist country, just to have the questionable "pleasure" to be governed by other "communists"...
Also, I can promise you that if SPD+Grüne+Linke form the governement, Die Linke will fulfill its current agenda exactly as well as FDP fulfilled their agenda in this term... The only thing that might happen is that they could enact a minimum wage. Even then, the consensus those parties would meet will probably be similar to the consensus SPD and CDU had about the VAT (Mehrwertsteuer) during the grand coalition (SPD - no raise in VAT (16%) + CDU - raise to 18% = consensus: raise to 19% -.-). Meaning: I'd be surprises if they actually raised the minimal wage above €8/h.
Most people wouldn't even want them to hold their promises and the mighty people in the SPD either always dodge the question or straight out say that they will never coalate with the lefts in the bundestag, so don't worry, that will never happen.
On September 19 2013 02:56 Daumen wrote: Im getting really excited for the election, cant wait to see the results ... I dont want Merkel to get a 3rd term :x Hope to see another Chancellor.
Not saying that Gysi must be Chancellor but I like the way he talks in the Bundestag. If he would have been in the Kanzler-Duell it would have been more interesting and more heated (in a good way).
Even though I'm not sure if he'd still talk the way he does if he wouldn't be in the constant opposition party that will never reign :/(actually I'm pretty sure that he wouldn't, on some points at least).
I thought the same... maybe... but we will never know if we dont vote him. His opposition-talk is better than the opposition talk of the other parties, wich he points out quite often.
On September 19 2013 02:56 Daumen wrote: Im getting really excited for the election, cant wait to see the results ... I dont want Merkel to get a 3rd term :x Hope to see another Chancellor.
Not saying that Gysi must be Chancellor but I like the way he talks in the Bundestag. If he would have been in the Kanzler-Duell it would have been more interesting and more heated (in a good way).
Even though I'm not sure if he'd still talk the way he does if he wouldn't be in the constant opposition party that will never reign :/(actually I'm pretty sure that he wouldn't, on some points at least).
I thought the same... maybe... but we will never know if we dont vote him. His opposition-talk is better than the opposition talk of the other parties, wich he points out quite often.
Rewarding populism usually leads to very bad things and most of the stuff Die Linke does is populism.
Will be funny to see what happens. The 3 most likely options are probably 1. CDU+FDP 2. CDU+SPD 3. SPD+Grüne+Linke
hoping for the 3rd option, thinking it will be a the 2nd.
This boggles my mind. I didn't come to Germany from an "ex"-communist country, just to have the questionable "pleasure" to be governed by other "communists"...
Also, I can promise you that if SPD+Grüne+Linke form the governement, Die Linke will fulfill its current agenda exactly as well as FDP fulfilled their agenda in this term... The only thing that might happen is that they could enact a minimum wage. Even then, the consensus those parties would meet will probably be similar to the consensus SPD and CDU had about the VAT (Mehrwertsteuer) during the grand coalition (SPD - no raise in VAT (16%) + CDU - raise to 18% = consensus: raise to 19% -.-). Meaning: I'd be surprises if they actually raised the minimal wage above €8/h.
Your first sentence is very curious - be free to vote against them (assuming you have the right to do so), but if they should ever get voted into government, you should accept that, that's democracy. Btw, they are not full blown communists, they don't claim to be nor does their program indicate such intention. Far left, socialist, sure, but not communist.
However, you are of course right that they would not be able to realize their program (which is the expected modus operandi for coalition government - they have to find consensus). But they'd be able to give a SPD/Grüne government a more leftist touch, which I'd presonally quite like. It's unrealistic, however, as Union and FDP were able to succesfully demonize them in the public opinion. So don't worry
EPT
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