TL Mafia XXXIX - Page 105

On May 11 2011 00:39 Impervious wrote:


Analysis of kitaman27

Verdict: Suspicious.



Reason:


His list for scum includes 2 confirmed scum, a confirmed town, and redtooth. The scum on his list were heavily lurking, and were also identified by other people before this point, so he didn’t really bring much info here. Especially since one was mod killed due to inactivity. I’m really not sure what to make of it.


I find this highly ironic, since the vast majority of his posts have been spammy, and he’s asking others to stop spamming.

Ok, that wasn’t actually scummy, just thought I’d point out something that you might get a chuckle out of.



When it came time to actually lynch on Day 2, he was very resistant to switching to Amber. At least, until chaoser claimed DT. Then he switched immediately. Could easily be a bus.

However, this post really stood out to me when I first read it:


After switching his vote almost immediately, he suddenly put up some resistance? That seems really, really weird for someone who’s played more than a few games of mafia. Anyone with a power role needs to take advantage of their role as much as possible, and if you’re town, hindering that plan is a bad move. And it’s quite clear that chaoser had a plan from that post.



The vast majority of his posts are spammy/no content. I know I play a lot like that as well, so I know that is not suspicious of itself. He’s an anti-lurking oriented player. And I can totally understand that as well. Getting the lurkers to participate more can also help the mafia as well though, because it doesn’t allow blues to blend in by lurking as well. This is particularly useful for roles like medics.

The truth is, I’m not suspicious of him because I think he’s scum, I’m suspicious of him because I can’t peg him as town. He’s someone I want to watch, but not even consider lynching at the moment. He’s been asking questions which seem to be pro-town, but I’m still not sure.



Now, another thing I’d like to bring to everyone’s attention:

Did anyone else notice something weird about the night kills on the first night? I didn’t really notice it until doing this analysis…..

Aidnai, KillerSOS, and Jackal58 were the targets. Aidnai was a strong supporter of redtooth’s initiative. He also made a post earlier on in the night which signified that he had a blue role without actually spelling it out. Seems like a logical hit.

But why were KillerSOS and Jackal58 killed?

Jackal is famed for his tunnelling, which could easily be manipulated or at least attempt to manipulate it before killing him (if I was mafia, I know that I’d want to keep him alive as a townie, unless he had a blue role). And since KillerSOS seemed to be a suspicious player, as a member of the mafia, I can’t see it being a stretch to actually push for his lynch at a later date….. And I did not get a vibe from him that he was blue.

I’m not sure about it, but I’m thinking that maybe the mafia is more inexperienced than I initially expected them to be. I can’t think of a solid reason for “why them?”

On May 11 2011 22:24 Impervious wrote:

Ok, so I misinterpreted your mixup during the switch. Still seems kind weird though.

I would not push a lynch on you, in fact, I would argue against it. We already have 2+ good suspects, and adding another right now (like you did recently) is not going to help the town much, because it will be much easier to be misdirected when there are more suspects thrown in our faces. And, if we get a good lynch today, we'll really handicap the mafia.

On May 14 2011 03:17 sinani206 wrote:
OK here are my three votes
1) Kurumi
2) Kevconsim (Impervious)
3) EternalMisfit

I was really nooby day 1 and I couldn't follow the discussion, so I voted for Kurumi because there seemed to be lots of good arguments against him that I agreed with and I couldn't find anything to add.

I voted Kevconsim day 2 because Rising_Phoenix had been very inactive before he was replaced and then Kevconsim was too. I didn't see Node's post about him. Even though he had an emergency, Impervious is also not contributing, so he could still be Mafia.

I voted EternalMisfit because it was a lynchrace between him and me and I didn't want to die. There were also a lot of good arguments about him earlier in the day that I agreed with.

On May 04 2011 11:39 redtooth wrote:
^ Then please keep your comments out of thread to reduce clutter. Anyways, let us proceed with the game.

Hey Irish_Punk13, I have a question for you:
How good does it feel to be scum?
Want me to explain how I figured it out so fast?

Obvscumtell. Please be more discrete next time. I'll put my vote on as soon as the thread gets made. 1 scum down, 5 to go.

On May 05 2011 14:48 redtooth wrote:
+ Show Spoiler [Post Write-Up Disclaimer] +
Honestly I would have liked to stay quiet a little bit longer to see how it progressed but since you guys are demanding it, here goes. This essay brought to you by Redtooth, the person who got attacked the last time he made a longpost. Warning, very long:

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Reason 1: The Irish Lynch Push
Honestly, let’s be serious: the Irish argument is a joke. There really isn’t enough of a basis to keep pushing it and it has only wasted massive amounts of time that could have been spent doing other stuff. Obviously not many people have been convinced, even though the reasoning behind this is pretty depressing in and of itself.

Back to his strategy. I initially thought that it was just a prolonged Minimalist Approach, something I assumed he was doing ever since he hopped onto my RVS vote. He seemed to have dropped it after a certain point (which was fine with me since it was getting nowhere) but Irish suddenly appeared again as top suspect in a later post making it very clear that Chaoser is still actively pursuing a lynch on Irish.

Since Irish can’t be bothered to defend himself (more on that later), let’s examine Chaoser’s main arguments point-by-point on his behalf (I will paraphrase for the sake of brevity).

First off, that’s not a scumtell. When two people with Ghost icons start attacking you while acting like they know what they’re doing, you pay attention. As a matter of fact, would it not have been more odd if he didn’t react the way he did? I mean who is comfortable with two “vets” pressing you off the bat, regardless of how much support there is to those presses? I’m curious as to what a normal, expected reaction would have been.

I’ll admit, I was pretty surprised at how much traction Irish’s argument got. However, I wouldn’t call it a “chainsaw defense” as much as it is a desperate attempt to look like you’re scumhunting. Irish didn’t have many choices in this position as he was expected to “hunt scum” and produce new and interesting content. He couldn’t accuse himself (duh). On the other hand, you would have spun an accusation if he jumped on the Kurumi wagon. Besides those two, there literally is nothing to go off of up to that point. This scenario is somewhat less likely so I won’t hold Chaoser as accountable for these 2 points.

See above. There is a sudden expectation on him to create novel contributions to the thread and this honestly seems like a very half-hearted attempt to fulfill those expectations. And you’re right it wasn’t an EBWODP. It was an EBWOP. It’s a picky counterargument to a nitpicky argument. What difference does it make? If anything, it perfectly fits his character of noobtown.

You’ve made it very clear that he’s not going to slip your grasp without a serious defense. So why hasn’t he posted one? Because he’s uninterested. Scum is way more likely to fight back til the bitter end (see KillerSOS below) rather than just semi-abandoning a game. It’s not like he’s trying to lurk through it either since his bandwagon seemed to be the biggest at one point.

Now you may be saying, “Hey redtooth! This looks more like a defense of Irish than a FoS on Chaoser.” Well the problem is that either Chaoser should have recognized these or he did recognize but chose to ignore them. Since he seems to be a solid player so far, I’m leaning towards the latter and that is the scummiest action exhibited by anybody in this game so far (essentially actively and knowingly promoting a lynch on obvtown).

Everyone, consider the following questions as objectively as possible:
Is it very possible that Irish is simply a noobtown? Yes
Is it very possible that Irish’s “chainsaw defense” was actually just a noobtown analysis? Yes
Is it very possible that Irish’s lack of defense is in his lack of interest in staying alive? Yes
Is it very possible that Chaoser is tunneling, intentional or otherwise? Yes

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Reason 2: Active Lurking
Town has been giving Chaoser a LOT of credit for “contributing so much”. However, upon closer examination a lot of them are either logistical posts (request to focus, poke on lurkers, answer to questions, etc), offtopic, or pushing one of his four FoS. They all look good but break them down and there is very little to be had.

As shown by one of the posts quoted above, his attention seems to be spread over four people atm: Irish (primary), Kurumi, KillerSOS, Sinani. I’ve already stated why I think Irish isn’t realscum but let’s address the others as well.

Kurumi is that guy. He is the prototypical hyperactive townie who expended all that energy and lost interest midway through game after being pressured. Honestly, when was the last time someone so blatantly scum actually flipped scum? It’s pretty shocking and discouraging to see Kurumi leading in votes. However, it’s a super easy bandwagon to contribute to since there is a wealth of incriminating behavior and an easy target for active lurking.

The FoS on Sinani is based off of one sentence that could easily have been due to him simply not reading the thread with much detail (very much within the realm of possibility since there’s so much clutter). Another easy-to-press person that was pressed. Relatively recent development so we’ll see how it goes.

KillerSOS is actually a great lead (he’s near the top of my list). However, it’s odd that both KillerSOS and Irish are on the list since they are handling the pressure in totally opposite manners (one totally passive, one full aggressive). Odd behavior isn’t always scum behavior, something he should know very well. ANOTHER easy-to-press person to press, regardless of the merit in the argument. I won’t FoS Killer for now since it wouldn’t make sense for one to be on both him and Chaoser at this point.

And by having 4 people FoS’d this early, Chaoser’s also implying that he’s found over half the scum team 36 hours into the game. I don’t know if it is part of his gamestyle to just mass accuse but all it does is create unfocused chatter as attention is split between 10 suspects and lines of arguments get muddled or skimmed over. You’re a liar if you can say that it is easy to focus on what’s happening in the thread right now.

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Ultimately, Chaoser’s actions haven’t been enough to place a vote on him yet. But since he seems to be steadily increasing his voice in town, I suggest you guys definitely approach his statements more warily then has happened thus far. From what’s been said in the thread, it seems like he played pretty well as town the previous game but that trust shouldn’t necessarily be carried into this game. He may be a great town member but it is just as likely that he is scum. I mean it’s gotten so ridiculous that players are now making blanket threats against those who dare even challenge the great Chaoser. What’s even more surprising is nobody has even said anything about that challenge.

That isn’t to say I FoS’d him just to get you guys to pay attention. I genuinely do think it is suspicious that a “vet” would pursue these weird lynches and FoS. Logistical posts are neutraltells (WHY WONT YOU GUYS UNDERSTAND THIS?) as are offtopic stuff. That leaves just what I perceive to be a real subtle case of active lurking. I’ll watch how it continues to play out and I suggest the rest of town do the same.

On May 07 2011 02:02 redtooth wrote:
XXXIX Town Official Argument Standards:

• All official accusations and arguments must be prefaced by the sentence:
  
  I, USERNAME, have given much thought to the following argument and have relatively high confidence in its accuracy.
  This sentence (and the red font) is there to encourage people to not just throw out arguments they don't believe in.
  
• Make separate posts and headings for each person you make an official, on-the-record argument against. This is so we can refer to it easier and take in information piecemeal instead of through information overload.
  
• No more than 4 quotes per argument against a player. This is to discourage quotewalls nobody reads and to encourage people actually thinking about what evidence they present. If you need to quote him 10 times to prove he's scum, you're doing it wrong. Select the ones you find most incriminating and quote those, nothing more. Unlimited references, paraphrasing, and "shortlinking" (hyperlinking without the full URL) is allowed.
  
• If an official argument sounds valid to you, request to cosponsor it. Arguments not cosponsored within 3 pages or 3 hours (whichever come later) will be dropped. If your argument is dropped, you personally will not be able to make an official argument against the same suspect until the next round (day and night count as separate rounds). If another person makes an argument against the same suspect, you can cosponsor that one and add your reasonings to it. An official argument can have any number of cosponsors to signify its strength and support. Any sponsor (main arguer) of an argument may remove people from the cosponsor list at his discretion. Any cosponsor can remove himself from an argument and, if that was the only cosponsor, that argument will be given the same timeframe (3 pages or 3 hours) to find another.
  
• Additions made to your argument in later posts must be headed by a link (via "#" button) to the addition you most recently made or, if none exists, the initial argument. This is for ease of tracking your argument. It is your obligation to convince us, not our obligation to be convinced by you. Make it as easy as possible for us to follow.
  
• All new arguments made from this point forth cannot link to your previous argument. We are starting over. Even if it’s the same argument, write it up again following these standards. Keep it focused, efficient, and clear.
  
• There is no obligation for me or any player upholding these standards to recognize any arguments not made through these means. This is to incentivize people into actually following the standards.
  
• Failure to abide by these rules will be automatically receive a pFoS (partial Finger of Suspicion) by me. I will treat these like normal FoS and move forward with the assumption that the person is scum with the intention to derail the town.

On May 08 2011 01:28 redtooth wrote:
I know you guys don't care anymore but I'm still doing it.

I, redtooth, have given much thought to the following argument and have relatively high confidence in its accuracy.

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Cthsazsa is SCUM
because of two reasons:
- Jackal died.
- He hasn't been posting productively.

The reason why we wait til Day to analyze is so we can do it with more information (instead of tunneling based on feelings). The aidnai and KillerSOS kills were perfectly within the realm of reason. The question is why Jackal died.

Last night I was thinking to myself that if I were scum I would try to break one of the three quality focused presses (me on Chaoser, Chaoser on Irish, Jackal on Cthsazsa) regardless of the alignment of the target. The reason why the alignment shouldn't matter is because the subsequent argument is entirely WIFOM so it derails the town no matter which way it goes.

However, I'm a bit surprised it was Jackal who died. Chaoser, when not pressing obvtowns, has been very protown looking almost to the point where he was Town God. I'm a polarizing figure but I hunt scum very hard. This gives scum the perfect opportunity since doctors aren't going to save us and they can knock one of us down before either gets any real traction. Also, it causes a WIFOM attack on the other ("See chaoser is green!" against me, "You killed redtooth because he was the only one pressing you!" against chaoser) so it's a double win.

On the other hand, Jackal posted a list of five scum he thinks he's found already. Anybody who posts a list of the entire other team isn't worth paying attention to (although among all of the fullteam lists posted, that one actually made the most sense in terms of intra-team alliances). Also, Jackal hasn't even been a big voice in town anyways and hasn't dropped any PR tells.

That means that the focus on Cthsazsa was broken for another reason since it clearly wasn't the optimal kill. The first and most obvious explanation is that the focus-break was an attempt to get heat off of one of the scumteam. This isn't too much of a stretch to say since he has beena cting pretty scummy so far. Let's look at the following:
The problem isn't with what he posted. The problem is with when he posted this. Lynches aren't the only things with bandwagons and attacking my initiative is probably the safest bandwagon you could jump on. There was an overwhelming backlash but at this point everything that had to be said had already been said. Compare this behavior with DropBear, who I said is town. He posted ridiculous conspiracy theories about why I'm scum and he did it early and he did loud and he did it often. Cthsazsa, not really known for being too quiet and having a controlled ego, simply lurked in at the last second with a very subtle attack. If anything, something as polarizing as my initiative should have either had his full-fledged criticism or full-fledged defense. Something's not right here.

Also, there's this post. Organized scum dole out various roles to the team. If you think I'm crazy, read "Knowing your strengths and knowing your goal" here. Cthsazsa is the prototypical "get-them-emotional" type of player. His defense wasn't substantive at all outside of "You're stupid so you're wrong", aka a non-defense. Also add to this the fact that he had never posted a substantive defense against Jackal as well outside of "you're being an idiot". KillerSOS exhibited this behavior to a certain extent (though not nearly as bad) and he was a PR. Townies don't make moves like this and if the scum was willing to risk a hit on Killer why weren't they risking a hit on Cthsazsa?

For now, Cthsazsa is my #1 lynch target. I have others in mind but none as confident as this one. I will be on a bus ride 'til late night but if he chooses to continue ignoring the cases made against him, that's an easy kill.

On May 07 2011 03:50 redtooth wrote:
Disregarding Other People's Analysis - Of all the clauses, this is the most important. We have absolutely 0 power in enforcing this standard within the rules of the game. Since we can't ask Node to impose it, it has to be voluntary and obviously that hasn't worked out so well so far. This is the ratification clause that gives the biggest incentive you can get (acceptance into discussions) in exchange for upholding our high standards.