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On May 17 2011 08:48 Impervious wrote:
I'm with DropBear. We need to be decisive right now. Throwing out several targets right now is not going to get us anywhere.
chaos13, I realize it looks bad for me, based on what little time I've spent in this game (especially since, why would anyone have a role that needs to be replaced twice?). And, at this point, I fully expect to be lynched at some point in the near future.
I was asked to analyze kitaman earlier in the thread. I honestly don't have a solid pro-town or pro-scum read from him. I believed that there were better targets at the time, even though I wasn't convinced he was actually town. That's why I'd actually argue against a lynch of him.
Does that make sense? I wasn't actually trying to attack him.....
And, when it came to the EM/sinani thing that happened earlier - I don't want the town to be so indecisive - it's too easy for the mafia to manipulate. We need to be decisive with our lynches.
The bolded is contrary to my analysis of you. We have several targets right now because there are several people who have been acting scummy. If we analyze them, we can cut out a suspect or two and be that much closer to winning the game.
Who do you have solid pro-town and pro-scum reads on then?
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Ok, here's some things going on in my head.
I definitely think there's something fishy going on between orgolove and DropBear. DropBear showed up really, really high on orgolove's statistical analysis, and then after the analysis, his numbers basically dropped as fast as possible. This leads me to think that it's quite possible that one or the other are actually mafia. Either orgolove set it up to frame some townies, or DropBear knowingly did the best he could to lower his rating (which he could only do if he was red). I'm not certain about either of these two, but I do know that if one flips red, I'm 100% certain that the other is town.
I don't want to lynch either though, since both have potential to contribute a lot, and we'd have to commit to 2 lynches, in case we were wrong. I'd like to wait for something stronger.
Lynching ilovejonn would just be cleaning up the link between him and EM. Suspicious to a few people. Maybe not the best lynch possible, but I don't think it's a bad one.
Varpilus did a good job analyzing redtooth earlier. I had a pretty solid pro-town reading earlier in the game, but now I'm not so sure. I wouldn't want to lynch him right now, because he has the potential to contribute a lot, and we'd miss out on that if he's town and we're doing the wrong thing.
There's been some people who have been too quiet for my liking. jaminiz is one of them. I wouldn't be against lynching him today (since he seems scummy to some people + lurking), simply because a lurker/less active poster will not help us later on, assuming the worst case scenario of a mislynch.
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Imp, one of the reasons I'm suspicious of redtooth is just that: he has the potential to be very helpful, but he hasn't been at all pro-town or active lately. he's turned from an active and outspoken player who had everybody convinced he was town to a shady guy hiding do that he doesn't have to post an opinion.
He's got the potential to be a very good townie, but lately he's been just the opposite. I don't like jaminz as a lynch today. I don't believe that he's scum, personally.
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I had a brief suspicion of redtooth in the beginning of the game, but it faded quickly. Perhaps it was right after all.
I would like someone to post analysis on jaminz, orgolove, and ilovejonn. It will help me make my own thoughts on them clearer.
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One of sinani206's few big posts, probably a coached post. I´m not sure how to read this one, because of WIFOM. It was posted fairly early, when there was still time to divert the lynch on someone else, to me it´s more likely that scum would discredit a townie than cast suspicions on their own at that stage.
I´m fairly certain this makes Ilovejonn Town, but I can´t be sure.
+ Show Spoiler +On May 14 2011 13:42 sinani206 wrote:ilovejonn This is ilovejonn's list of votes: 1) kurumi2) beneather
cthsaza3) eternalmisfit4) sinani206ilovejonnoroglove Hmm.... So far, 3 greens and a blue. Kurumi bandwagon day 1 and EternalMisfit bandwagon day 3, with no real explanations for either. He is also experienced, so he can't be forgiven for not explaining. Today, first he votes on my bandwagon, then after I defend myself and DropBear accepts the defense, he switches to himself, saying this: Show nested quote +On May 14 2011 04:06 ilovejonn wrote:
I'm townie. Why not lynch for information? We have mislynches at disposal. And what defense do you guys possibly want from me. I've been on all the wrong lynches and have no credibility in this game any more, flipping will probably provide more than what I can say. Why do you first roleclaim townie and then tell the town to lynch you for information? You want us to call a bluff, to believe that you are a Townie that will sacrifice himself for the town, and then leave you alive. But you aren't. You wanted us to leave you alone so that you could stay alive and the Mafia would keep their 2KP. Then, after Varpulis' post: Show nested quote +On May 14 2011 04:40 Varpulis wrote:
It's good policy to lynch scum. If you're town, you should help us lynch scum, not help us lynch you.
Wrong =/= scum. Saying "I give up, just lynch me" makes me very suspicious. orgolove did it, and people aren't discussing him anymore, so you're going to try it too? You post this and switch back to oroglove: Show nested quote +On May 14 2011 05:34 ilovejonn wrote:
I still think orgolove is GF. Check his posts before 1802 and after.
Like people mentioned, he gives us a flawed data sheet to follow (I know it's flawed because I'm townie but managed to accumulate the most points due to a) not switching to Amber because I was away, b) sticking with my analysis on EM which turned out to be wrong.), says that Dropbear and I are top targets based on the point system he made out of thin air, and then when we lynch EM he goes, guys I convinced you soooooo hard that you guys deserve to lose if you don't follow my spreadsheet.
You didn't convince us on anything dude, you laid out information we all could have observed and placed some arbitrary points into it, then said you're disgusted with the town after a mislynch. That's some major convincing you did.
And you guys are right, why waste a vote on myself. I'll use MY vote on who I think is scum. Because you realize that Varpulis is right, you switch to orgolove, to act more like a townie and act like you are trying to kill the scum. But you just use the same arguments against him that everyone else has. Another bandwagon. You realize that this is 3 band wagons you have joined, all without adding to the accusation? I know where my vote is going today. ##Vote: ilovejonn
I noted something interesting at the end of that post (bold for emphasis). sinani206 says he was voting on orgolove to seem more town, but orgolove rarely come up in the top of most-scummy lists. I wonder if sinani206 accidentally outed a fellow scum.
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That makes a whole lot of sense, Forumite.
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kitaman27
United States9245 Posts
So I read through all of sinani's posts and didn't really find anything of value except a couple possible WIFOM arguments. Instead I did a search for all the references of sinani206. Opening ~150 different tabs is really a pain. Even worse, I accidentally lost my post part way through so I had to reopen a bunch more -_-
I split the posts I found in two categories: Pro-town and suspicious.
Orgoloves spreadsheet only keeps track of voting records, but I think thread presence and whether someone attacks or defends a scum should also be taken into account.
Pro-town
+ Show Spoiler +On May 06 2011 14:01 DropBear wrote:[Long analysis] CONCLUSION sinani206 is Mafia On May 10 2011 13:16 DropBear wrote:
I suggest lynch Sinani today and we pressure the other two. On May 10 2011 22:49 Impervious wrote:
Others were two people that chaoser found suspicious, and I agree with him - sinani and ilovejohn. On May 11 2011 09:13 Varpulis wrote:
[long analysis]
That wraps it up. Those are seriously Sinani206's only quality posts. He's lurking loudly and not contributing, and that screams scum to me. Add that to the fact that he his only real posts are either misinformation or filled with suspicious reads, and I'm ready to lynch this guy right now. On May 11 2011 14:11 Varpulis wrote:
Alright then. I think we should lynch Sinani today, for reasons I've already stated. On May 12 2011 05:58 kitaman27 wrote:
the way sinani took three posts to announce an upcoming post that was completely empty like all his other posts makes me feel like he is the scummier of the two. On May 12 2011 09:25 Varpulis wrote:It's scummy to me because On May 13 2011 09:18 Impervious wrote:
And am more than willing to lynch sinani during the day anyways. But w/e. On May 13 2011 16:42 Forumite wrote:
I have to agree with VarpuliS post right before the night. Right now we´re going for sinani206, and then moving on to the others. Personally I don´t see how Ilovejonn and orgolove could both be Scum, but that´s for another day. Right now we take out sinani206. On May 15 2011 03:41 Mig wrote:
But I am going to vote for sinani mainly because I think sinani still looks scummy from the previous day. I don't think much has changed for him and I am not completely sold on ilj's or orglove's guilt yet. On May 15 2011 08:58 jaminz wrote:
I'm going to vote for sinani because of the close vote last time coupled with his erratic posting behavior.
Suspicious
+ Show Spoiler +On May 11 2011 14:01 Conversion wrote:
Post behavior wise I can't really draw up a conclusion on Sinani and ilovejohn because they don't have any... substantial posts. It's suspicious at best. On May 12 2011 07:54 Impervious wrote:
With the lynch of EM, we learn about ilj, and he seems to be more detrimental to the town than sinani. So he seems like the better lynch of the two right now, even though I`d like to see both gone tbh.
Good enough of a reason? On May 12 2011 09:43 Impervious wrote:
Because we accomplish more through a lynch of EM than through a lynch of sinani (I mean, from our limited knowledge), I can't see why you would want to switch right now..... On May 12 2011 10:15 Mig wrote:
But then as I looked through all his posts on TL to try and judge his reasoning ability I saw that hes only in 8th grade. I don't want to stereotype all 8th graders but his posting makes a lot of sense to me as an overwhelmed 8th grader. And its obvious that his posts are not being coached. With only 3 mafia left I figured the other 2 might try and help him post a bit better to survive, which clearly hasn't happened.
On May 12 2011 11:53 jaminz wrote:
They're both suspicious, but my gut says Eternal is scummier than sinani. On May 13 2011 11:58 DropBear wrote:
Please discuss! Sinani is also on the table too but I'm starting to think he isn't mafia now.
On May 13 2011 12:11 DropBear wrote:
Remember that sinani206 is also in his first game. On May 13 2011 22:22 redtooth wrote:
Seeing as we're not sold 100% on Sinani, might as well wait to see who gets killed and what they flip. On May 13 2011 22:31 Impervious wrote:
As much as I'm starting to get a vibe that sinani is actually town (and that we have better choices for a lynch today), I really, really don't like how close the vote was. So I'm going to stick with it for the moment.
Conclusions:
-I didn't realize how hard Varpulis had pushed for his lynch. He came out looking pretty good. I'm leaning towards 90% town for him.
-DropBear was real wish-washy. He was one of the first people to bring up sinani and pushed for his lynch day 3, but then he got cold feed on day 4. I'm also leaning town since this doesn't seem like a mafia reaction to me.
-Impervious and jaminz are my two remaining scum suspects at the moment. Impervious defended sinani pretty hard without providing any decent reasons besides we would get more information lynching someone else. jaminz doesn't even mention sinani day three or day four until its obvious he can't be saved near the end of the cycle.
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redtooth managed less: He voted for sinani dead last without even posting in the game thread .
I agree that impervious is somebody to be suspicious of. I don''t agree about jaminz, but my argument that he's town isn't solid, I admit that.
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I think the only thing scummy about jaminz at the moment is that he only made his vote last minute, and it happened to be on the wrong person.
redtooth is my top suspect right now.
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On May 17 2011 09:14 Varpulis wrote:
Imp, one of the reasons I'm suspicious of redtooth is just that: he has the potential to be very helpful, but he hasn't been at all pro-town or active lately. he's turned from an active and outspoken player who had everybody convinced he was town to a shady guy hiding do that he doesn't have to post an opinion.
He's got the potential to be a very good townie, but lately he's been just the opposite. I don't like jaminz as a lynch today. I don't believe that he's scum, personally.
That's just it - if we're not sure about a lynch today, why would you want to lynch someone who could potentially be useful in the future?
I don't think that checking the changes in activity levels of people is a smart way to analyze someone. Believe it or not, RL things catch up to people.....
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On May 17 2011 09:09 Impervious wrote:
Lynching ilovejonn would just be cleaning up the link between him and EM. Suspicious to a few people. Maybe not the best lynch possible, but I don't think it's a bad one.
Varpilus did a good job analyzing redtooth earlier. I had a pretty solid pro-town reading earlier in the game, but now I'm not so sure. I wouldn't want to lynch him right now, because he has the potential to contribute a lot, and we'd miss out on that if he's town and we're doing the wrong thing.
There's been some people who have been too quiet for my liking. jaminiz is one of them. I wouldn't be against lynching him today (since he seems scummy to some people + lurking), simply because a lurker/less active poster will not help us later on, assuming the worst case scenario of a mislynch.
Alright, let me point out a few things I'm having problems with here.
To begin with, you state that you would be okay with lynching jaminz because he is inactive. This is immediately after you state that you do not want to lynch redtooth, even though he is being inactive. redtooth being inactive is great cause for worry. He is a veteran player, which means that at this point he should be contributing regularly and helping town out. He was even the last person to vote for sinani206, and didn't post reasoning for it in the thread. redtooth should be way more suspicious than jaminz right now.
You also state that you would be okay to lynch ilovejonn, just to clear up the confusion about him and EternalMisfit. Not because you think he is mafia, but because people are confused about him.
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Impervious, your argument does not sit well with me. I simply do not agree that just because he could be useful later in the case that he's town, we should not lynch him because we think that he's mafia.
I'm not suffering from indecision. I've made my choice. It's not just the changing activity levels either. Look through redtooth's last 10 posts. Is there any real content? those 10 posts have a timeline of almost 2 in-game days, and 5 real life days.
If you're going to be unable to devote time to the game for that long, you should at least have the courtesy to tell the mod/other players about it. redtooth is experienced enough, he should know that.
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On May 17 2011 10:46 kitaman27 wrote:
-Impervious and jaminz are my two remaining scum suspects at the moment. Impervious defended sinani pretty hard without providing any decent reasons besides we would get more information lynching someone else. jaminz doesn't even mention sinani day three or day four until its obvious he can't be saved near the end of the cycle.
And information is not important?
I was pretty certain that either EM or sinani would be red. Not both, but one of them.
At the time, we had much more limited information than we do now. Out of all the possible outcomes:
EM is scum, sinani is town - we could be very sure that ilj is town.
sinani is scum, EM is town - doesn't tell us anything about ilj's allegiance.
EM and sinani are both town - yet again, it doesn't tell us anything about ilj's allegiance.
Both being scum is out of the question..... For pretty obvious reasons..... But it would also clear ilj if it somehow happened.
So, looking at the info based on what could happen:
Lynch EM - Flips Red - We know sinani and ilj are town.
Lynch EM - Flips Green - Suspect sinani
Lynch sinani - Flips Red - EM is cleared
Lynch sinani - Flips Green - Suspect EM
The only situation where we would be able to find out more info on the first lynch was the first one - the one I advocated. In hindsight, it was the wrong move, however, based on the info we had, I'll stick to my decision that it was the better lynch at the time. Granted, it wasn't much better than the other options, but it was still the better option.
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On May 17 2011 11:10 chaos13 wrote:Show nested quote +On May 17 2011 09:09 Impervious wrote:
Lynching ilovejonn would just be cleaning up the link between him and EM. Suspicious to a few people. Maybe not the best lynch possible, but I don't think it's a bad one.
Varpilus did a good job analyzing redtooth earlier. I had a pretty solid pro-town reading earlier in the game, but now I'm not so sure. I wouldn't want to lynch him right now, because he has the potential to contribute a lot, and we'd miss out on that if he's town and we're doing the wrong thing.
There's been some people who have been too quiet for my liking. jaminiz is one of them. I wouldn't be against lynching him today (since he seems scummy to some people + lurking), simply because a lurker/less active poster will not help us later on, assuming the worst case scenario of a mislynch. Alright, let me point out a few things I'm having problems with here. To begin with, you state that you would be okay with lynching jaminz because he is inactive. This is immediately after you state that you do not want to lynch redtooth, even though he is being inactive. redtooth being inactive is great cause for worry. He is a veteran player, which means that at this point he should be contributing regularly and helping town out. He was even the last person to vote for sinani206, and didn't post reasoning for it in the thread. redtooth should be way more suspicious than jaminz right now. You also state that you would be okay to lynch ilovejonn, just to clear up the confusion about him and EternalMisfit. Not because you think he is mafia, but because people are confused about him.
Actually, it's not just because he's inactive - if I had to choose between jaminiz and redtooth for a lynch right now, I'd choose jaminiz.
Why?
Because I don't know what jaminiz can contribute, while I know that redtooth can deliver, and I'm not sure if either of them are actually mafia.
There's no guarantee that redtooth will deliver, but lynching jaminiz would be the lesser of two evils.
Also, yes, I am a supporter of policy or information lynches. While it would be nice to be able to peg the mafia in our next two lynches, I find that highly unlikely. So anything we can do that will get us closer to determining who they actually are in the case that we don't lynch correctly is definitely going to help us out later on. We're not in a lylo right now.....
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On May 17 2011 11:11 Varpulis wrote:
Impervious, your argument does not sit well with me. I simply do not agree that just because he could be useful later in the case that he's town, we should not lynch him because we think that he's mafia.
I'm not suffering from indecision. I've made my choice. It's not just the changing activity levels either. Look through redtooth's last 10 posts. Is there any real content? those 10 posts have a timeline of almost 2 in-game days, and 5 real life days.
If you're going to be unable to devote time to the game for that long, you should at least have the courtesy to tell the mod/other players about it. redtooth is experienced enough, he should know that.
I basically disappeared over the last few days as well (although not as severe as his), and now that I'm back, I get people pointing a FoS at me.....
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Vote tally time! we've got a little more than 24 hours left, so let's see where we stand.
ilovejonn 2
orgolove
impervious
AirBladeOrange 1
DropBear
orgolove 3
Forumite
Xedat
AirBladeOrange
redtooth 1
Varpulis
Currently, orgolove is to be lynched with three votes, but a shitload of people haven't voted yet, so it's too soon to tell how this lynch is going to go down.
Players who haven't voted yet:
jaminz
elmizzt
Mig
redtooth
kitaman27
chaos13
Vote and share your thoughts, guys!
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I would like to hear from Mig. He has made one post this day phase, and it was minimalist.
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On May 17 2011 11:37 Impervious wrote:Show nested quote +On May 17 2011 11:10 chaos13 wrote:On May 17 2011 09:09 Impervious wrote:
Lynching ilovejonn would just be cleaning up the link between him and EM. Suspicious to a few people. Maybe not the best lynch possible, but I don't think it's a bad one.
Varpilus did a good job analyzing redtooth earlier. I had a pretty solid pro-town reading earlier in the game, but now I'm not so sure. I wouldn't want to lynch him right now, because he has the potential to contribute a lot, and we'd miss out on that if he's town and we're doing the wrong thing.
There's been some people who have been too quiet for my liking. jaminiz is one of them. I wouldn't be against lynching him today (since he seems scummy to some people + lurking), simply because a lurker/less active poster will not help us later on, assuming the worst case scenario of a mislynch. Alright, let me point out a few things I'm having problems with here. To begin with, you state that you would be okay with lynching jaminz because he is inactive. This is immediately after you state that you do not want to lynch redtooth, even though he is being inactive. redtooth being inactive is great cause for worry. He is a veteran player, which means that at this point he should be contributing regularly and helping town out. He was even the last person to vote for sinani206, and didn't post reasoning for it in the thread. redtooth should be way more suspicious than jaminz right now. You also state that you would be okay to lynch ilovejonn, just to clear up the confusion about him and EternalMisfit. Not because you think he is mafia, but because people are confused about him. Actually, it's not just because he's inactive - if I had to choose between jaminiz and redtooth for a lynch right now, I'd choose jaminiz. Why? Because I don't know what jaminiz can contribute, while I know that redtooth can deliver, and I'm not sure if either of them are actually mafia. There's no guarantee that redtooth will deliver, but lynching jaminiz would be the lesser of two evils. Also, yes, I am a supporter of policy or information lynches. While it would be nice to be able to peg the mafia in our next two lynches, I find that highly unlikely. So anything we can do that will get us closer to determining who they actually are in the case that we don't lynch correctly is definitely going to help us out later on. We're not in a lylo right now.....
Do I need to start linking to jaminz making solid posts? Do your research.
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=216644¤tpage=27#531
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=216644¤tpage=52#1028
Can redtooth deliver? Name a guy he's accused in this game that has flipped scum. If you can, than I definitely missed something.
I don't count "eh, he could be scum" as accusing, by the way. Show me a solid analysis post of redtooth's that nails scum.
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Where the heck is redtooth, anyways? Really wondering about his unexplained sudden drop in activity. Say something to set our minds at ease, redtooth!
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Signing off for the night, guys.
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EPT
