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On November 02 2010 13:16 jcarlsoniv wrote:Show nested quote +On November 02 2010 13:14 Coagulation wrote:On November 02 2010 13:10 jcarlsoniv wrote:On November 02 2010 13:05 Coagulation wrote:On November 02 2010 13:03 jcarlsoniv wrote:On November 02 2010 12:59 DoctorHelvetica wrote:On November 02 2010 12:47 jcarlsoniv wrote:On November 02 2010 12:09 Pandain wrote:
oh wtf, im almost at 2000?
screw the part1/2/3/4/5 crud. I'm a do a full blown analysis.
Don't expect me to post for a while :p I won't lie to you, I probably won't even bother reading it. I already know what it will say. On November 02 2010 12:14 infinitestory wrote:On November 02 2010 12:10 L wrote:On November 02 2010 11:44 infinitestory wrote:
[quote]
At the very end of Night 1, Node claimed that he knew BrownBear was going to die. He then claimed that his role was "oracle," which allowed him to see at the beginning of each day one player who's slated to die that night. DCLXVI is, according to Node, slated to die tonight. Possible connections between Node's role and the +1 part of mafia's 2+1 KP have been brought up. One suggestion in particular says that there's a red with the role of killing one guy randomly each night, and Node gets to find out who that is at the start of the day. The possibility of Node being a red baiting medics has also been brought up. The +1 makes sense, but that means that mafia would have had to.. hmm. Node, when did you recieve the two PMs notifying you who's going to die? Like I said, he claims it's at the beginning of the day each day. He also claims that he received QuickStriker's name at the beginning of Day 1, but QuickStriker was modkilled at the end of Day 1, so he then received BrownBear's name. I have known this for quite a while, but it just got me thinking: What do you think the odds are that the mods would change the "oracled" target if that target was modkilled? Idk, it just seems to me that if the player was modkilled, well that's tough shit for the oracle, his power is wasted for the day. Thinking about this, Node actually does seem pretty fishy. Eye of Suspicion That's just speculation. Node seems to think there is a predetermined list and that if a player os modkilled a new target is chosen. Or there is a mafia killing role that must decide on a kill ahead of time (Decide 1 kill in the day + 2 kills at night) and node is aware of the day choice there are many possibilities here, I don't think we can draw any serious conclusions from. obviously due to the gravity of his roleclaim his posting can not be ignored. Haha fair enough. I just wanted to put Eye of Suspicion on someone... I was gonna on Lexpar, but he posted and placated me. It scares me that we haven't heard from Divinek... so your basically saying that your just trying to accuse people for the sake of accusing people? really? thats as anti town as it gets. Was I accusing him? No. I felt left out because of all this ridiculous arguing, and I want people to look at others for possible lynch targets because I believe this argument really didn't get us far. Go ahead and try to paint me anti-town if you really want to. I'm not sure you'll get too far. im not trying to paint you anti town. but dont pretend that trying to put eye of suspicion on people because you feel left out is a good way to help town. Feeling left out isn't the lead persuasion for wanting to search for other targets. Wanting to expand the discussion is. While I know it is likely there are some blues lurking/being inactive, I would say that it is almost certain there are lurking mafia. This scares me because they can just sit back while people like Doc/Pandain/YM/infinite bicker and split the town into to halves.
The problem with talking about inactives, is you can't really talk about inactives. If players are truly inactive, not posting at all, then really they're all equally likely to be scum and no real conclusions can be drawn.
However it is by no means a good thing that the town gets split 50/50 or that one argument/conflict is the spotlight of the entire day. Inactives need to start posting!
I want to see Divinek post D:
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Can we please move on to other possible lynch targets instead of speculating how people's said role works? We can do that later on if someone told us about their role and got caught in a lie.
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On November 02 2010 13:19 DoctorHelvetica wrote:Show nested quote +On November 02 2010 13:16 jcarlsoniv wrote:On November 02 2010 13:14 Coagulation wrote:On November 02 2010 13:10 jcarlsoniv wrote:On November 02 2010 13:05 Coagulation wrote:On November 02 2010 13:03 jcarlsoniv wrote:On November 02 2010 12:59 DoctorHelvetica wrote:On November 02 2010 12:47 jcarlsoniv wrote:On November 02 2010 12:09 Pandain wrote:
oh wtf, im almost at 2000?
screw the part1/2/3/4/5 crud. I'm a do a full blown analysis.
Don't expect me to post for a while :p I won't lie to you, I probably won't even bother reading it. I already know what it will say. On November 02 2010 12:14 infinitestory wrote:On November 02 2010 12:10 L wrote:
[quote]
The +1 makes sense, but that means that mafia would have had to..
hmm.
Node, when did you recieve the two PMs notifying you who's going to die? Like I said, he claims it's at the beginning of the day each day. He also claims that he received QuickStriker's name at the beginning of Day 1, but QuickStriker was modkilled at the end of Day 1, so he then received BrownBear's name. I have known this for quite a while, but it just got me thinking: What do you think the odds are that the mods would change the "oracled" target if that target was modkilled? Idk, it just seems to me that if the player was modkilled, well that's tough shit for the oracle, his power is wasted for the day. Thinking about this, Node actually does seem pretty fishy. Eye of Suspicion That's just speculation. Node seems to think there is a predetermined list and that if a player os modkilled a new target is chosen. Or there is a mafia killing role that must decide on a kill ahead of time (Decide 1 kill in the day + 2 kills at night) and node is aware of the day choice there are many possibilities here, I don't think we can draw any serious conclusions from. obviously due to the gravity of his roleclaim his posting can not be ignored. Haha fair enough. I just wanted to put Eye of Suspicion on someone... I was gonna on Lexpar, but he posted and placated me. It scares me that we haven't heard from Divinek... so your basically saying that your just trying to accuse people for the sake of accusing people? really? thats as anti town as it gets. Was I accusing him? No. I felt left out because of all this ridiculous arguing, and I want people to look at others for possible lynch targets because I believe this argument really didn't get us far. Go ahead and try to paint me anti-town if you really want to. I'm not sure you'll get too far. im not trying to paint you anti town. but dont pretend that trying to put eye of suspicion on people because you feel left out is a good way to help town. Feeling left out isn't the lead persuasion for wanting to search for other targets. Wanting to expand the discussion is. While I know it is likely there are some blues lurking/being inactive, I would say that it is almost certain there are lurking mafia. This scares me because they can just sit back while people like Doc/Pandain/YM/infinite bicker and split the town into to halves. The problem with talking about inactives, is you can't really talk about inactives. If players are truly inactive, not posting at all, then really they're all equally likely to be scum and no real conclusions can be drawn. However it is by no means a good thing that the town gets split 50/50 or that one argument/conflict is the spotlight of the entire day. Inactives need to start posting! I want to see Divinek post D:
Yes and only way to force inactives to post is to start lynching inactives to scare them into posting.
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United States4053 Posts
On November 02 2010 13:19 DoctorHelvetica wrote:Show nested quote +On November 02 2010 13:16 jcarlsoniv wrote:On November 02 2010 13:14 Coagulation wrote:On November 02 2010 13:10 jcarlsoniv wrote:On November 02 2010 13:05 Coagulation wrote:On November 02 2010 13:03 jcarlsoniv wrote:On November 02 2010 12:59 DoctorHelvetica wrote:On November 02 2010 12:47 jcarlsoniv wrote:On November 02 2010 12:09 Pandain wrote:
oh wtf, im almost at 2000?
screw the part1/2/3/4/5 crud. I'm a do a full blown analysis.
Don't expect me to post for a while :p I won't lie to you, I probably won't even bother reading it. I already know what it will say. On November 02 2010 12:14 infinitestory wrote:On November 02 2010 12:10 L wrote:
[quote]
The +1 makes sense, but that means that mafia would have had to..
hmm.
Node, when did you recieve the two PMs notifying you who's going to die? Like I said, he claims it's at the beginning of the day each day. He also claims that he received QuickStriker's name at the beginning of Day 1, but QuickStriker was modkilled at the end of Day 1, so he then received BrownBear's name. I have known this for quite a while, but it just got me thinking: What do you think the odds are that the mods would change the "oracled" target if that target was modkilled? Idk, it just seems to me that if the player was modkilled, well that's tough shit for the oracle, his power is wasted for the day. Thinking about this, Node actually does seem pretty fishy. Eye of Suspicion That's just speculation. Node seems to think there is a predetermined list and that if a player os modkilled a new target is chosen. Or there is a mafia killing role that must decide on a kill ahead of time (Decide 1 kill in the day + 2 kills at night) and node is aware of the day choice there are many possibilities here, I don't think we can draw any serious conclusions from. obviously due to the gravity of his roleclaim his posting can not be ignored. Haha fair enough. I just wanted to put Eye of Suspicion on someone... I was gonna on Lexpar, but he posted and placated me. It scares me that we haven't heard from Divinek... so your basically saying that your just trying to accuse people for the sake of accusing people? really? thats as anti town as it gets. Was I accusing him? No. I felt left out because of all this ridiculous arguing, and I want people to look at others for possible lynch targets because I believe this argument really didn't get us far. Go ahead and try to paint me anti-town if you really want to. I'm not sure you'll get too far. im not trying to paint you anti town. but dont pretend that trying to put eye of suspicion on people because you feel left out is a good way to help town. Feeling left out isn't the lead persuasion for wanting to search for other targets. Wanting to expand the discussion is. While I know it is likely there are some blues lurking/being inactive, I would say that it is almost certain there are lurking mafia. This scares me because they can just sit back while people like Doc/Pandain/YM/infinite bicker and split the town into to halves. The problem with talking about inactives, is you can't really talk about inactives. If players are truly inactive, not posting at all, then really they're all equally likely to be scum and no real conclusions can be drawn. However it is by no means a good thing that the town gets split 50/50 or that one argument/conflict is the spotlight of the entire day. Inactives need to start posting! I want to see Divinek post D:
I want to see Divinek, Veldril, KtheZ, Hyperbola, and Infundibulum post. >_> iirc they've been posting the least. I would ask Kenpachi to post more too, but he's banned atm
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Can someone do an analysis on misder? He seems to have a lot of low content post.
I am just too lazy right now as I have a lot of work to do.
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Ive seen divine around that fucking lurker, feel free to bandwagon him.
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I actually did it a while back. Let me find it for you. I concluded that there was too little information to make a solid conclusion and that he should be under a strong watch as he seems to be trying to fish a lot of roleclaims from people.
There are better lynch choices for sure though ATM.
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On November 02 2010 13:24 Nemesis wrote:
Can someone do an analysis on misder? He seems to have a lot of low content post.
I am just too lazy right now as I have a lot of work to do.
On November 01 2010 10:09 DoctorHelvetica wrote:I decided to analyse misders posts because I've been feeling really uncomfortable with his role fishing. I'll analyse some other players that have been brought up as suspicious later. Misder: His first post concerns a question asking how Murrayitis works. Nothing scummy/towny in that, both sides would have an interest in knowing. For a while his posts just clarify rules for other players, say things that are obvious, etc. It isn't until his 4th or 5th post that he contributes. Show nested quote +On October 29 2010 10:02 Misder wrote:
Since we're all blue (well, the town is), won't it be difficult for the mafia to know who to focus down, esp since they don't even know what roles there are? I'm just questioning since even if you role claim, it doesn't really do anything bad for the town.
I'd actually argue the other way. If we all role claim, we are able to check what other people do during the night action and see if it fits into their role. Also, the mafia won't know what roles there are, so their going to have to make their roles up. The biggest flaw in this is that then, the mafia will know what roles there are and who they are, but if we are able to weed the mafia out fast enough, its an easy town victory. I think it's fairly obvious that mafia is going to focus experienced players/whoever they suspect has the most powerful role in that case. If mafia won't know who to focus down (who is the most important blue) it would make sense that forcing roleclaims would be an important part of mafia strategy. This is a conclusion that can be drawn from the first part of your post. Then you ask for a mass role claim. How can we check what everyone does in the night action? You could simply make up a night action that can not be checked and no one can hold you liable. If we are able to weed out the mafia fast enough? Mafia can just claim obvious roles like detective and doctor or wait for other people to roleclaim and say "oh i'm the same role as X". You don't give a strategy to weed out the mafia fast enough (which is an important part of this plan). More posts about M-Rus come after this. Show nested quote +On October 29 2010 10:12 Misder wrote:
Ok, so this is how I think mafia kp is set up- mafia can hit 2 people normally, just like any regular mafia game. then, there is one mafia member who can infect 1 person with murrayitis.
I'm a bit confused on your earlier post on murrayitis. So is it that once infected, the person dies the next night, kind of like the poison from a poisoner? This is an easy conclusion to make. However I would say that if mafia don't have the power of spreading M-Rus, they would be interesting in goading the town into believing that was the case. Misder then puts what I call light pressure on Pandain. It is nonconclusive, it makes sense on both sides of the coin. For town, it is in their interest to know more about their candidates. For mafia, it is in their interest to appear to disagree/oppose their teammates while creating the opportunity for their teammate to defend/fix themselves. They will appear to put pressure on a teammate without actually doing so. Not so important now, very important later as scumhunting increases in intensity. Show nested quote +On October 29 2010 10:43 Misder wrote:
So I only heard from DH about the mass roleclaiming idea. To me, I feel that its more advantagious to the town than it is disadvantagious, but I want to hear from more of you guys about it. I put down the idea, Misder is still convinced at this point it's a good idea. Show nested quote +On October 29 2010 11:02 Misder wrote:
Now that I think about it, I'm more unsure about the mass roleclaiming thing I suggested. My main concern is that there isn't a concrete way to confirm anyone. And, as Fishball stated, nothing is preventing the mafia from making roles up that have passive abilities, or claim vigi. This post comes after several people put it down. The rest of the points he make here are pretty valid. Show nested quote +On October 30 2010 13:23 Misder wrote:
Ok, after reading through the thread, I'm leaning towards voting for DrH, and will vote for him as of right now.
1. If DrH is mafia, it will be able to tell. He provides so much about his role that its impossible to retract, or even fit under the role while being mafia.
If we believe everything that DrH said, he is able to coordinate town. Although he may not be able to PM, if there is a role that allows for the extension of PMing (masons?), he can coordinate even better.
It might even be good that DrH can't PM- everything he does will be done in this thread, and he can be closely examined.
(The only concern I have is that DrH is pretty good at manipulation- but I feel that he won't be able to backtrack what he said, and it will be easy to find inconsistencies in his posts)
2. There may as well be a doctor (or even better, a plague doctor) in the circle to protect him, which will basically provide the same thing as bodyguards.
If Fishball is mafia, he already has a lot of power. He can manipulate the circle probably really easily, esp since according to him, the majority is inactive, and if they decide to come back, it is easy for them just to listen to Fishball and do whatever he says.
We don't know what Fishball can do. He claims his role is of utmost importance, but isn't able to tell us what that role actually is.
3. I feel that Pandain won't be able to provide anything as mayor. He hasn't put out a plan yet; and probably can't do anything proactive with his role.
As people stated earlier, Pandain is transparent. Which is good to check on Pandain, but would be a waste of a Mayor.
Hes not the best scum hunter I've ever known... I'll leave it like that.
The only reason I'd even consider voting for Pandain is if I was a super afraid person of experienced players that are mafia taking the mayor role.
People I'm concerned with:
Coagulation- I don't think I've read a good post by him yet.
Glasse- comes out of nowhere, and states that he can't be killed? And tries to take the mayor role? Why would anyone with the role of being not able to be killed want even more protection?
Ace- Well, I don't really have anything against him. It's just that I've never seen him play, but I've heard hes good and hes a veteran player- so I'm wary.
Circle Claiming-
I don't think the circle should claim to the thread yet; I don't really think I have a reason on this, except that I feel that its risky. If this circle is pure town- its the only form of communication town has that is known right now. Giving mafia the members makes it easy to break the circle up.
One thing to consider though- It's very likely that mafia is in this circle, so other mafia will know who is in this circle and what they are talking about. This gives an advantage to the mafia. The mafia knows whos in the circle and the town doesn't, that sets the town really behind because the town won't know who is able to PM etc.
Hopefully this is enough to only have 1 post today (in real life time)... Naturally I agree with his praise of me there. In this post he parrots concerns town had about Fishball and gves light criticism to Pandain. Discourages circle claiming which seems really odd in the face that he earlier suggested a mass roleclaim and later tries to get others to roleclaim. He says he doesn't have a reason but that its risky? So if mafia is in the circle, all the mafia know who is in the circle, why wouldn't you want town to know as well? That's withholding information from the town that mafia has. Doesn't help us. Show nested quote +On October 30 2010 15:56 Misder wrote:
I'm taking my vote off of DrH and putting it on Fishball.
After all the WIFOM talk, theres one more thing to consider. If DrH was mafia, he could claim that he poked another mafia player, who has the ability to detect who follows him. So when the plague doctors go to "confirm" DrH, mafia is getting a list of all of the plague doctors.
Fishball seems less dangerous compared to what DrH can do if hes mafia. Fishball has to be able to stay consistent in the PMs in the circle and in the thread, and we will be able to check on him in two ways, especially with his activity level. Moving his vote to Fishball. Reasonable play and he gives valid reasons for it. his problem with me assumes the existence of a role that could or couldn't exist and it seems like a sort of specific concern because (unlike suicide bombers and other potential roles that have brought concern) I don't recall a role like this in any previous mafia game PLEASE correct me if I'm wrong. Show nested quote +On October 31 2010 10:29 Misder wrote:
Well, if youngminii survived the lynch... I would say that he needs to roleclaim or we get a dt to check him. If its a blue role that avoids lynching- he needs to say so now and I feel a complete roleclaim is necessary from him. And even if he says hes blue- dt should check him.
Him being mafia would probably be a bit OP since then the only way that young could die would be by vig hit or another town KP role (unless he can only avoid lynching once...)- either way, young should be scrutinized. Fishes for a roleclaim. He qualifies it but this is pretty clear fishing IMO. Show nested quote +On October 31 2010 10:33 Misder wrote:
Is the bodygaurd's only extra function to prevent any mafia hits on the mayor? Valid question. Show nested quote +On October 31 2010 23:23 Misder wrote:
But youngminii knows why he didn't get lynched, right? Wouldn't it be more benefitial to the town if young told us if this was a one time thing or a permanent thing for avoiding a lynch? If he doesn't tell us, town lacks the information, and because of how young has been posting, we may consider another day to lynch him. But that would be a waste of time if young is immune. I'd say young is most likely mafia if he doesn't answer whether or not this was one time or permanent or multiple.
So young, how often can you dodge a lynch (one time, multiple times, permanently, etc.)? More fishing. Show nested quote +On November 01 2010 01:19 Misder wrote:
I'm pretty sure that DC didn't roleclaim bodygaurd. I think his role has something to do with knowing what each role does; at least that was what I got out of it. Maybe he is bodygaurd, but I'm pretty sure DC is smart enough to spoil it to the mafia. Everyone seems to agree that his claim was a bodyguard softclaim. LSB and Artanis earlier clarified in the thread that no one knows what roles are in this game or what they do, so your conclusion is what would appear to be an impossibility. Show nested quote +On November 01 2010 07:37 Misder wrote:
@Ace
I didn't try fishing out his entire role. I am just seeing if he knows if he can dodge lynches, and if so how many. I thought it was beneficial to town, as we would understand more of the game mechanics + reason why the young lynch didn't go through + future reference if we decide to lynch young again.
That being said, I'm not afraid of being checked. I would almost encourage it.
@Lexpar's post
Hmmm... Everyone is negative about this post, and so am I. But maybe its part of his role; or something happened between the two. Pretty much unlikely, as that would mean that his role is able to PM or that his role is shown to the mayor, but its insane mafia. Clarify please, Lexpar, Tells Ace he isn't fishing and then fishes on Lexpar lol Show nested quote +On November 01 2010 08:34 Misder wrote:On November 01 2010 08:29 Node wrote:
I'm mostly worried about the presence of a suicide bomber in the game, but I suppose I can't do much else seeing as I'm not in a PM circle.
DCLXVI is going to die tonight. Is this for certain? Do you know how hes going to die? Is it possible for a doctor or a medic or whatever role its called in this game to protect him so he doesn't die? These are questions on everyones mind. I have no problem with this. Show nested quote +On November 01 2010 08:49 Misder wrote:So three people died tonight, Remember that one post of Artanis where he said that mafia has 2+1 KP? That must mean that mafia had access to that extra 1 KP. Whether or not that can be accessed every day, we do not know (it might be that they can only have extra every other day or something like that), but maybe we can find out what role that gains that extra 1 KP. I think its the Giant Potato, but its hard to tell in the night post. On November 01 2010 08:19 infinitestory wrote:On November 01 2010 08:10 LSB wrote:During the night, hardly anyone can sleep. It wasn't just all the trick or treaters, everyone was busy doing something. One poor dude? He arrived at the wrong person’s home (some idiot kidnapped the people) and proceeded to become gagged and tied up. As he staggered around looking for help, another person decided to take his clothes, and replace them with a weird smelling rag. At least other people came and helped him, after prodding him for two hours. That poor guy  Annul decided to stalk his favorite person. However, after he put on his black clothes, black mask, and black gloves. Someone helped him by wrapping a black scarf around his neck. Killing him.
Afterwards a completely different person arrived, played on the tire swing for a while, and left. I'm pretty sure both bolded parts are the describing Annul and his death. So someone switched places with him (kidnapped?). I think we have to be careful of the guy who switched places with him. If we get any references to similar activities between one person and Annul, we can almost gaurantee that that person is mafia. First paragraph doesn't say much except he thinks the extra KP might have to do with the giant potato. Although why do you think this? Doesn't it seem more likely the extra KP was used on BrownBear considering the special circumtances surrounding his death? especially considering Node's supposed role everything about it seems quite "separate" Show nested quote +On November 01 2010 08:54 Misder wrote:
@Node
Why were you informed that BB would die so late last cycle, but now you are informed that DXC is going to die so early in this cycle? He already answered this earlier iirc Show nested quote +On November 01 2010 09:01 Misder wrote:On November 01 2010 08:57 DoctorHelvetica wrote:On November 01 2010 08:53 Glasse wrote:
Yea but now that our medics are suspicious of him he could easily waste his life on a single worthless blue(there has to be some stupid roles that don't do anything) for nothing
not very smart If he isn't suicide bomber he could simply be trying to set the bomber up. If mafia thinks we aren't going to send blues at the target Node set up then they just kill him confirming his "role". A win/win situation for mafia. Consider this as well: if he is mafia he would obviously know the alignment of every player (who is red and who is blue), keeping the targets he picks who will die that night blue in every case keeping up the illusion that he is predicting mafia hits this is a very easy role to fake for mafia. too easy really. since you've already claimed node why not just tell us the name of it? Adding on to this, it may even be a ploy to get medics (im just gonna call them that from now on) to protect DXC in which somehow the mafia members find out the doctors :/ I suggest that no one protect DXC and we find out tonight what causes his death. Theres got to be a cooralation between BB death and DXC death. Again you refer to a mafia role that knows who visited them. Wouldn't that make DXC the mafia since he would be the one being visited? Obviously there is a correlation between the BB death and DXC death and it's that node was told ahead of time : / Show nested quote +On November 01 2010 09:08 Misder wrote:On November 01 2010 09:02 DoctorHelvetica wrote:On November 01 2010 09:01 Misder wrote:On November 01 2010 08:57 DoctorHelvetica wrote:On November 01 2010 08:53 Glasse wrote:
Yea but now that our medics are suspicious of him he could easily waste his life on a single worthless blue(there has to be some stupid roles that don't do anything) for nothing
not very smart If he isn't suicide bomber he could simply be trying to set the bomber up. If mafia thinks we aren't going to send blues at the target Node set up then they just kill him confirming his "role". A win/win situation for mafia. Consider this as well: if he is mafia he would obviously know the alignment of every player (who is red and who is blue), keeping the targets he picks who will die that night blue in every case keeping up the illusion that he is predicting mafia hits this is a very easy role to fake for mafia. too easy really. since you've already claimed node why not just tell us the name of it? Adding on to this, it may even be a ploy to get medics (im just gonna call them that from now on) to protect DXC in which somehow the mafia members find out the doctors :/ I suggest that no one protect DXC and we find out tonight what causes his death. Theres got to be a cooralation between BB death and DXC death. what makes you think that would let us find out what caused his death? that's just an excuse for letting a town player die for the sake of information we might not get First of all, you don't even know that DXC is town. We don't even know if we can actually protect DXC. Even worse, if mafia set it up so that there is a bomb placed there that night which kills everyone that visits him, that would be detrimental. Ok, maybe we won't be able to determine the cause of the deaths, esp since there are no clues (I forgot about that). But to me, it just seems to risky. We have no info. We suspect that Node could be faking his role. I'm even thinking that the +1 KP comes from a predetermined mafia kill at the start of the day, and that if Node is mafia, he would know about this. Brings up the possibility of DXC being mafia which was implied in his last post. However it seems with this post that he is discouraging people from visiting DXC rather than to visit him. If Misder was mafia and DXC was the mafia role (that knows who visited them) that misder has already referenced a few times, this doesn't seem like a logical play to me. This post doesn't come off scummy to me at all. Show nested quote +On November 01 2010 09:17 Misder wrote:On November 01 2010 09:10 DoctorHelvetica wrote:On November 01 2010 09:08 Misder wrote:On November 01 2010 09:02 DoctorHelvetica wrote:On November 01 2010 09:01 Misder wrote:On November 01 2010 08:57 DoctorHelvetica wrote:On November 01 2010 08:53 Glasse wrote:
Yea but now that our medics are suspicious of him he could easily waste his life on a single worthless blue(there has to be some stupid roles that don't do anything) for nothing
not very smart If he isn't suicide bomber he could simply be trying to set the bomber up. If mafia thinks we aren't going to send blues at the target Node set up then they just kill him confirming his "role". A win/win situation for mafia. Consider this as well: if he is mafia he would obviously know the alignment of every player (who is red and who is blue), keeping the targets he picks who will die that night blue in every case keeping up the illusion that he is predicting mafia hits this is a very easy role to fake for mafia. too easy really. since you've already claimed node why not just tell us the name of it? Adding on to this, it may even be a ploy to get medics (im just gonna call them that from now on) to protect DXC in which somehow the mafia members find out the doctors :/ I suggest that no one protect DXC and we find out tonight what causes his death. Theres got to be a cooralation between BB death and DXC death. what makes you think that would let us find out what caused his death? that's just an excuse for letting a town player die for the sake of information we might not get First of all, you don't even know that DXC is town. We don't even know if we can actually protect DXC. Even worse, if mafia set it up so that there is a bomb placed there that night which kills everyone that visits him, that would be detrimental. Ok, maybe we won't be able to determine the cause of the deaths, esp since there are no clues (I forgot about that). But to me, it just seems to risky. We have no info. We suspect that Node could be faking his role. I'm even thinking that the +1 KP comes from a predetermined mafia kill at the start of the day, and that if Node is mafia, he would know about this. Everything points to DXC being town in this case. No I don't know 100% that he is town. But if Node is telling the truth it seems the people dying are blues, not reds. If Node is a mafia lying about his role it doesn't make sense for them to single out red targets, it doesn't set up a possible play for the mafia in all likelihood (unless there is a mafia role that kills other mafia) What is risky? Not having DXC die? The risk that it may be a set up by the mafia (less likely now, discussed later in the post). And that it would be a waste (remember, his role says that DXC is going to die, which implies that there is no way to save him). Note that I wrote my post before I read Node's latest posts. So Node seems to be hinting that there is a list that the mods have that kills people one by one. Quickstriker was first, then BB, then DXC. This seems like a random list, as Quickstricker was inactive and not a target that mafia would want to kill, and BB was pretty inactive too and also not a target that mafia would want to kill. DXC is someone that mafia would want to kill as he softclaimed bodygaurd, but if we follow the pattern, it isn't the mafia that chooses this list. This also implies that Node is town, and isn't setting this up. I have nothing to disagree with here, good post. Show nested quote +On November 01 2010 09:25 Misder wrote:On November 01 2010 09:21 DoctorHelvetica wrote:On November 01 2010 09:17 infinitestory wrote:On November 01 2010 09:10 DoctorHelvetica wrote:On November 01 2010 09:08 Misder wrote:On November 01 2010 09:02 DoctorHelvetica wrote:On November 01 2010 09:01 Misder wrote:On November 01 2010 08:57 DoctorHelvetica wrote:On November 01 2010 08:53 Glasse wrote:
Yea but now that our medics are suspicious of him he could easily waste his life on a single worthless blue(there has to be some stupid roles that don't do anything) for nothing
not very smart If he isn't suicide bomber he could simply be trying to set the bomber up. If mafia thinks we aren't going to send blues at the target Node set up then they just kill him confirming his "role". A win/win situation for mafia. Consider this as well: if he is mafia he would obviously know the alignment of every player (who is red and who is blue), keeping the targets he picks who will die that night blue in every case keeping up the illusion that he is predicting mafia hits this is a very easy role to fake for mafia. too easy really. since you've already claimed node why not just tell us the name of it? Adding on to this, it may even be a ploy to get medics (im just gonna call them that from now on) to protect DXC in which somehow the mafia members find out the doctors :/ I suggest that no one protect DXC and we find out tonight what causes his death. Theres got to be a cooralation between BB death and DXC death. what makes you think that would let us find out what caused his death? that's just an excuse for letting a town player die for the sake of information we might not get First of all, you don't even know that DXC is town. We don't even know if we can actually protect DXC. Even worse, if mafia set it up so that there is a bomb placed there that night which kills everyone that visits him, that would be detrimental. Ok, maybe we won't be able to determine the cause of the deaths, esp since there are no clues (I forgot about that). But to me, it just seems to risky. We have no info. We suspect that Node could be faking his role. I'm even thinking that the +1 KP comes from a predetermined mafia kill at the start of the day, and that if Node is mafia, he would know about this. Everything points to DXC being town in this case. No I don't know 100% that he is town. But if Node is telling the truth it seems the people dying are blues, not reds. If Node is a mafia lying about his role it doesn't make sense for them to single out red targets, it doesn't set up a possible play for the mafia in all likelihood (unless there is a mafia role that kills other mafia) What is risky? Not having DXC die? Everything points to DC being town, except: 1) he softclaimed bodyguard (by correcting Artanis on the definition, no less), when there was no good reason to do so. He then pretty much said it was intentional by saying "Artanis just confirmed my role." There's no good reason to do this as a townie. 2) He softclaimed bodyguard, and a (the only?) bodyguard just died. His softclaim of bodyguard has yet to be confirmed by him. If he has a reason to do it as a townie I'd like him to tell us. He certainly has explaining to do, as well as Aeres, considering Annul was a bodyguard. On November 01 2010 09:17 Misder wrote:On November 01 2010 09:10 DoctorHelvetica wrote:On November 01 2010 09:08 Misder wrote:On November 01 2010 09:02 DoctorHelvetica wrote:On November 01 2010 09:01 Misder wrote:On November 01 2010 08:57 DoctorHelvetica wrote:On November 01 2010 08:53 Glasse wrote:
Yea but now that our medics are suspicious of him he could easily waste his life on a single worthless blue(there has to be some stupid roles that don't do anything) for nothing
not very smart If he isn't suicide bomber he could simply be trying to set the bomber up. If mafia thinks we aren't going to send blues at the target Node set up then they just kill him confirming his "role". A win/win situation for mafia. Consider this as well: if he is mafia he would obviously know the alignment of every player (who is red and who is blue), keeping the targets he picks who will die that night blue in every case keeping up the illusion that he is predicting mafia hits this is a very easy role to fake for mafia. too easy really. since you've already claimed node why not just tell us the name of it? Adding on to this, it may even be a ploy to get medics (im just gonna call them that from now on) to protect DXC in which somehow the mafia members find out the doctors :/ I suggest that no one protect DXC and we find out tonight what causes his death. Theres got to be a cooralation between BB death and DXC death. what makes you think that would let us find out what caused his death? that's just an excuse for letting a town player die for the sake of information we might not get First of all, you don't even know that DXC is town. We don't even know if we can actually protect DXC. Even worse, if mafia set it up so that there is a bomb placed there that night which kills everyone that visits him, that would be detrimental. Ok, maybe we won't be able to determine the cause of the deaths, esp since there are no clues (I forgot about that). But to me, it just seems to risky. We have no info. We suspect that Node could be faking his role. I'm even thinking that the +1 KP comes from a predetermined mafia kill at the start of the day, and that if Node is mafia, he would know about this. Everything points to DXC being town in this case. No I don't know 100% that he is town. But if Node is telling the truth it seems the people dying are blues, not reds. If Node is a mafia lying about his role it doesn't make sense for them to single out red targets, it doesn't set up a possible play for the mafia in all likelihood (unless there is a mafia role that kills other mafia) What is risky? Not having DXC die? The risk that it may be a set up by the mafia (less likely now, discussed later in the post). And that it would be a waste (remember, his role says that DXC is going to die, which implies that there is no way to save him). Note that I wrote my post before I read Node's latest posts. So Node seems to be hinting that there is a list that the mods have that kills people one by one. Quickstriker was first, then BB, then DXC. This seems like a random list, as Quickstricker was inactive and not a target that mafia would want to kill, and BB was pretty inactive too and also not a target that mafia would want to kill. DXC is someone that mafia would want to kill as he softclaimed bodygaurd, but if we follow the pattern, it isn't the mafia that chooses this list. This also implies that Node is town, and isn't setting this up. I feel that he is likely town. Considering the potential danger of his role if he is mafia it's best to keep an eye on his posts closely, but I don't have any strong suspicions about him and I think his response to my initial proposition of the possibility that he could be mafia was fairly strong. It could be an RNG'd list but I feel like it might be some sort of conditional kill. BrownBear's death said "he died for being good" that seems important to me and makes it seem unlikely that he was killed purely randomly. About the list- how can it be conditional? If everything Node says is true... then BB was "next in line". Unless its based on # of posts or when they post, then the mods wouldn't have been able to choose the next target on the list cause they can't predict the future actions. Assuming its a list. I already responded to this post specifically and I don't want to be redundant here. Show nested quote +On November 01 2010 09:29 Misder wrote:On November 01 2010 09:25 DoctorHelvetica wrote:On November 01 2010 09:24 jcarlsoniv wrote:On November 01 2010 09:22 DoctorHelvetica wrote:On November 01 2010 09:20 Misder wrote:
@DH
Earlier, you said you were going to poke the person you thought is most likely town. So why do you think that jcarls is town? Agreeable posts, good analysis, cool headed and logical. He didn't make a big roleclaim or bring a lot of attention onto himself and seemed for that reason to be a good target for me. Awwww that's the nicest thing anyone's ever said about me! ... on the internet... I didn't realize I was actually an important player in this game. On November 01 2010 08:15 DoctorHelvetica wrote:
I would like to announce that last night I poked jcarlsoniv. I did not receive a PM from Artanis or LSB meaning the poke was successful and jcarlsoniv does not have murrayitis. I cannot confirm this Dr.H, I did not receive a PM from the mods saying I was poked. Did you receive any other night actions? Something stopped my poke from going through to jcarlsoniv. This is not unlikely. Mafia knew that DH was going to try to confirm himself tonight by night action. So if there is a roleblocker in the game, mafia would probably make the easy decision to block him. On the other hand, DH is still not confirmed... Pretty obvious stuff, doesn't bring anything new to the table. Doesn't come off as either scum or town to me. Show nested quote +On November 01 2010 09:31 Misder wrote:On November 01 2010 09:27 Lexpar wrote:
I think that because I'm alive. I am therefore I think?
We can trust DocH. We should work with him. Any reason for this? DH, do you know the role of Lexpar? Possible attempt to see if I can reveal Lexpars role which he fished for earlier. Conclusion: Aside from the role fishing and occasional inconsistency nothing jumps off the play as particularly scummy. He makes some good points and arguments and is posting pretty reasonably and hasn't attacked anybody in particular or made a strong attempt to make anybody look bad. The only other thing that made me feel uncomfortable was the fact that he brought up this specific mafia role that may or may not exist several times and centered a few of his arguments around it. I don't feel that Misder is definitely mafia but the dude needs to stop trying to get people to roleclaim. Due to the fishing, Misder definitely needs to be watched. I don't want to put the FoS on you but maybe the Eye of Suspicion or in laymans terms "I'm watching you, bro."
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Due to the modkills, a PM network was severely damaged. For balance reasons, one player has been added.
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lol
I think it's same to assume it was Fishball's PM group.
Anyway, did L just single handedly take all the attention away from Aeres with one post that doesn't really defend his actions in any solid manner? Seriously?
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On November 02 2010 13:43 Artanis[Xp] wrote:
Due to the modkills, a PM network was severely damaged. For balance reasons, one player has been added.
I can confirm this. This was a Mod decision to add a member due to the 3 unexpected modkills. NOT a player ability. As I've said it once, I do not have such an ability to add players to my circle.
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United States4053 Posts
On November 02 2010 13:45 youngminii wrote:
lol
I think it's same to assume it was Fishball's PM group.
Anyway, did L just single handedly take all the attention away from Aeres with one post that doesn't really defend his actions in any solid manner? Seriously?
I can understand that, as long as we go back over everything before this day cycle ends. We need to avoid getting hung up over Aeres and whatnot, but we shouldn't forget about it.
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ok agreed
I'm interested in the analysis of Misder. I could almost swear he played very similarly in a game of mafia when we were both scum. I'll just go away and look for it now.
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United States4053 Posts
On November 02 2010 13:50 youngminii wrote:
ok agreed
I'm interested in the analysis of Misder. I could almost swear he played very similarly in a game of mafia when we were both scum. I'll just go away and look for it now.
good luck 
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On November 02 2010 05:19 Glasse wrote:
I think veldril might be scared of saying anything due to what happened in haunted mafia
I'd love to hear him on this though
I try to post something but having fever and playing Mafia make my head hurts even more T T
Regarding Dr.H and jcarlson, I think there are too many possibilities to simply conclude anything. I still 80% certain that Dr.H is a town player. However, he needs to prove his role quickly or he will lose the trust from me.
On Aeres, I really have no comments at this point (can't have good thinking right now T T). But I would not vote for him simply because of LAL. But I admit that young, and Dr.H made a good analysis on him.
I will put my vote on Divinek for the time being. He's a vet and I want him to say something too. I have yet to see his post about current situation. Also, last game he barely posted and turn out to be red in the end so I think we need to force him to be more active this game too.
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Okay based on TL Mafia XXX and TL Mafia XXXI, Misder is a lot more aggressive and willing to point fingers as scum. When he's town he tends to take a more neutral stance, and even when he's posting to voice his opinion of someone being scum (and voting for them) he would say something like "I feel as if x is more townlike than y and so I'm led to believe y is the most scummiest right now. That's why I'm putting my vote on him" whereas as scum he's more straightforward, "I'm voting for x because his posts are very scummy. Reasons x y z, he's scum".
He also likes bussing. I remember in XXX when we were on the same team, basically his first post of value was one bussing me, then he went on trying to bus one or two more teammates throughout the game.
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One last update before I go to sleep.
- We have 4 members in the circle now, including myself. We all know who each other are.
- 2 members have role claimed to me, which includes the new member.
- The last member finally replied, and have refused to role claim to me for now, explaining that he wants to play it safe for a while.
Good night.
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Another thing we need to aware is the Murrayitis. If it spread with an average rate of 3 people infected per day and with 3 + 1 (from lynch) people die per night, then the disease would be trigger on Day 5. With Dr. curing right people, then it could be delay about 1 or 2 days.
However, I don't think the infection rate will remain constant around 3 people. I think the infection rate will grow at exponential rate because Mafia can infect someone else + infected player can visit or be visited by someone. So we need to start thinking about how to find who is infected or not, how to prevent the spread, and who we should give immunity to too.
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United States4053 Posts
On November 02 2010 14:07 youngminii wrote:
Okay based on TL Mafia XXX and TL Mafia XXXI, Misder is a lot more aggressive and willing to point fingers as scum. When he's town he tends to take a more neutral stance, and even when he's posting to voice his opinion of someone being scum (and voting for them) he would say something like "I feel as if x is more townlike than y and so I'm led to believe y is the most scummiest right now. That's why I'm putting my vote on him" whereas as scum he's more straightforward, "I'm voting for x because his posts are very scummy. Reasons x y z, he's scum".
He also likes bussing. I remember in XXX when we were on the same team, basically his first post of value was one bussing me, then he went on trying to bus one or two more teammates throughout the game.
wait
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=147475
says Misder was meek in XXX as scum but previously aggressive as town. I know in XXXI (because I was in it and I did one of the major analyses on Misder's contradictory posts >___>) Misder was aggressive but later apologetic as town.
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EPT
