[GG] Mafia XII - The Summer Season - Page 17

On July 06 2009 13:31 HeavOnEarth wrote:
where the hell did araav come from wtf

On April 10 2008 21:26 Plexa wrote:
this is the pivotal time in this mafia game - there is an abundance of clues and i encourage every single active member to look for the traits i post up. Seeing as i am now a principle Mafia target everyone needs to know how to analyse these clues - beacuse MAFIA CAN'T BULLSHIT THEIR WAY OUT OF A CLUE.

Hence i present to you;

<font size='4'>How to catch Mafia 101</font>
By Plexa
Teamliquid Final Edits

When pinning mafia to clues there a number of factors one must consider;

<img src='http://teamliquid.net/staff/Plexa/amb_rules/1.png' align='left'> Clues take a single point from a player and extrapolate it out into a thematic idea.
Example one; d.arkive had his profile picture linking to "DC" and the mysterious device. That single image was extrapolated into a thematic use of electricity and a recurring device. One feature -> Mafia theme
Example two; Queasy had no information in his profile at all, thus the only clue could come from his name - Queasy. By definition Queasy means feeling sick. This definition was extrapolated into a thematic "sickly appearance" of sidewinder. One feature -> Mafia theme
Example three; Links aren't always clearcut, Quesidilla from Mafia 1 had a in his profile picture a sign saying "Real men proxy". This quote was extrapolated into the thematic strength/close quarters engagements with his character in mafia one - a hard clue but still; One feature -> Mafia theme

<img src='http://teamliquid.net/staff/Plexa/amb_rules/2.png' align='left'> Players with many connections to a possible clue are not mafia.
This overlaps with point one, but it really needs to be emphasized.
Example 1; Ghar had many clues pertaining to him (e.g the Mayoral campaign, various clue references) and there was a really strong case for him being mafia. However, as the clues weren't pertaining to a single defining feature of him - he was innocent and we lynched him.
Example 2; Shadowdrgn had a number of references/dual meanings of his name and profile which linked nicely to Mr Blonde. However there was simply too stronger connection between the two - and sadly (as we learned) he too turned out to be town.
Its important to remember this as it allows many people to be instantly discarded from being Mafia

<img src='http://teamliquid.net/staff/Plexa/amb_rules/3.png' align='left'> Never mix traits up between mafia
Unlike the first game, these clues are pertain to one mafia only. For instance the thematic idea of gazes meeting (before day 4) was linked to two different mafia therefore is NOT a thematic connection to a mafia; merely a coincidence.

<img src='http://teamliquid.net/staff/Plexa/amb_rules/4.png' align='left'> Mafia codenames have no relevance to the player.
The names are derived from various Tarentino movies and hence purely placeholders. This is important when you look at characters like Mr Pink in relation to HeRoS)PiNK and the like who have pink in their name. The connection is purely fictitious therefore avoid it at all times.
<hr>
Great, now we have a basic understanding of how these clues work, so how do we apply them? There are two methods, i identified Queasy using one, and d.arkive using the other so both are valid methods.

<img src='http://teamliquid.net/staff/Plexa/amb_rules/1.png' align='left'> Take a player, analyse his profile for possible themes that could arise
This is how i caught d.arkive. I saw his profile and checked out his varying bits of information. Keeping in mind a vague idea of Mafia traits (e.g. Taipan Snakes use of "direct current") his picture eventually clicked with me. DC, direct current. Upon investigating the connection further - everything could be extrapolated from the picture; mafia identified

<img src='http://teamliquid.net/staff/Plexa/amb_rules/2.png' align='left'> Take a mafia role, analyse the traits against various profiles
This is how i caught Queasy. Thinking about Sidewinder i knew that there would be a clue linking to sickness. After checking out a number of profiles i came to the conclusion that the most relevant clue to sickness was indeed Queasy - and hence it transpired that he was sidewinder.

Both of these methods are suited for particular situations. I'll do an example, analysing two confirmed innocent players - myself and TranceStorm. I will analyse myself using method one, and trancestorm using method two with the mafia Taipan Snake.

Plexa
Name: No meaning what so ever, no definitions, no abstract meanings no nothing. (origins actually come from the number "Googalplex" taking the plex at the end and adding an A, but anyone who gets that is a freak)
Signature: Clues possibly deriving from being a fan of someone, admiration perhaps? Progamer references are unlikely to be clues thus can be disregarded. Also perhaps a clue linking to the blogs - perhaps writing utencils?
Profile: Picture is of Plexa standing in from of the Tan Tien Buddha in Hong Kong thus perhaps some religious connection or perhaps a connection to asia

Rationalisation
Using the absolute clue hypothesis (see Clue analysis 201) clues must pertain to the entire section of the profile. Thus, as the signature has two very different focii a combination of fanboyism and blogging has no connections to any of the mafia profiles. Similarly when analyzing the picture clue we can reject any asian connections as there are far too many clues like that about hence we should focus on finding a religious theme - which is absent from mafia.

Hence Plexa is innocent.

TranceStorm

+ Show Spoiler [Taipan Snake] +Traits
- Seems to be unarmed (not associated with weapons)
-> Used broken glass recently
-> Used a taser like device
- Electronics connection
-> Thematic disabling of electronics
-> Thematic use of electricity (DC?)

When we glance over at TranceStorm profile and try to match it to the mafia we get;
Name: You have an interesting juxtaposition of tranquility against ferocity thus you would expect some kind of explosive mafia, which is calm then erupts in a quick flurry. The alternative is to have links to a Storm - which only somewhat applies
Signature: Blank
Profile: Blank

As we are looking for an Electricity connection, the Storm (and hence ID) don't really apply to this aspect of Taipan. Also, the juxtaposition of the name is also lacking from Taipan - hence it is fairly safe to assume that TranceStorm is not Taipan Snake and hence Trancestorm is not mafia.
<hr>

Well there you have it, happy analysing! I encourage anyone and everyone to start analysing clues for yourself. It's really easy, and with this outline the town should be hitting mafia in no time. Expect to see an updated list of profiles very shortly!!

On July 06 2009 14:03 Malongo wrote:

To be honest i have looked a lot into clues and I think you fit well into Mr Julia. My reasoning:

There was one matter left to attend to – the destruction of the secret Liquiville Cheese recipe. The task was left to Mr Julia, a newcomer (Hi. Nub. Lawl. Ez!!) to the Mafia but nonetheless determined to carry out his orders. Mr Julia had a nack for working out combinations (see your profile) and he had cracked the safe within seconds. He wasted no time in burning the recipe with his lighter. “What are you doing!!” cried fishball, startling Mr Julia and causing him to accidentally burn himself on the recipe. fishball watched in horror and amazement as Mr Julia’s burn wound began to change colour and pulsate (google search on you returns http://www.heavenearth.co.uk/ oxygen+fire => combustion also from that page "Oxygen Supplementation - a Key to Vibrant Health".) “Look what you’ve done!” exclaimed Mr Julia who came lunging at fishball. fishball fended Mr Julia’s first few blows off, but each blow became more erratic and powerful. It wasn’t long until Mr Julia landed a punch square on fishball’s jaw, knocking him to the ground. Mr Julia pounced on fishball and eventually turned fishball into a bloody pulp. Even though fishball was dead, Mr Julia could not stop and eventually, after his body began to pulsate, he passed out. Last note to the fact that Mr Julia has a female name and the suplement is focused on women (see pictures in page).

Im voting to lynch Heavonearth.

On July 03 2009 03:03 ydg wrote:
Can we repeatedly vote for the same weather options? Like snow/snow/snow/snow/snow? And the weather takes effect the night and the next day, right, so if we voted for fog that means that tomorrow's vote checks wouldn't show pledges?

Anyways I'm stuck between snow and rain. Day 1 clues are always weak because they're mostly red herrings so more clues would be nice, but with a KP of 5 and only 30 townies, mafia needs 5 days to win, so it might be a good idea to limit their KP until we can kill some mafia and lower it that way.

On July 03 2009 03:18 ydg wrote:
I wouldn't say that rain is useless, especially early game. Early game, mafia can either hit blindly, try to snipe, or take out people talking a lot. It's easier to block hits if they do the last two, which usually happens early game. Hitting blindly isn't going to help them that much.
Regardless, I voted for snow.
Oh and got my role.

On July 03 2009 03:21 ydg wrote:
Wait.
"The option with the most votes will be announced during the lynching and the weather will change immediately."

Vote for fog.
I assume lynching for day 1 means the election, so we do fog during the election, since you can't even list check mayor voting lists, and we have them lose some hits for the night. And then tomorrow we change the fog to snow and they can list check. Unless there is no weather for tonight.

On July 03 2009 05:12 ydg wrote:


Not necessarily, since Plexa could do clues where only a few mafia have clues linked to them each day. But I agree, until we know how clues are, if they're tidbits from the mafia's profile/whatever else and expressed through traits such as physical traits, tendency to use a weapon, or what not, or if the tidbits are just shown in the scene.
Or if Plexa draws heavily on a theme or if he picks from this and that, we don't know yet.

On July 03 2009 10:12 ydg wrote:
I disagree with spamming fog, but I agree that fog should be used day one.
List checking is one of the most effective tools, and, as pledges can only be found via list checks, if we spam fog, we will have no sure way of hitting pledge as opposed to hitting regular mafia.

On July 05 2009 15:18 ydg wrote:




I'd post more but it seems like there's not much to discuss now?
Tbh I only go inactive when I'm mafia lol.

I'd clue analyze but it's only day 1. I like to wait until at least day 2 to start looking at it.

On July 05 2009 15:25 ydg wrote:
Okay assuming Plexa is going with mafia have their own eccentricities and quirks and their own traits, here are a few weird things I found...


So so far only two characters have been mentioned, "tall and lanky" and "Mr. Explosive." I THINK that the person who killed Plexa was another person, perhaps a stealthy person (like a ninja, why is there always a ninja).

Also, the "strung up on lines like a human clothes line" is VERY strange, what a weird way to phrase an odd scene.

And of course, the note.
But, being day 1, I can't think much of these except a preliminary outline of how clues will be?

On July 05 2009 15:39 ydg wrote:
Btw,
8/8 Mafia alive. (Current killing power = 5)
1/1 Suicide Bomner alive.
1/1 Godfather alive.

so, 6 non-Godfather, non-Bomber mafia.

With fog...

6 pledges, 1 non, 1 god => 3/2+1/2+1=3 total hits
5/2/1=>5/4+1+1=13/4=3.25=4 total hits
4/3/1=>1+3/2+1=7/2=3.5=4 total hits
3/4/1=>3/4+2+1=15/4=3.75=4 total hits
2/5/1=>1/2+5/2+1=4 total hits
1/6/1=>1/4+3+1=4.25=5 total hits

So not bad for reducing KP by 1. I guess we can always figure out a way to get pledges without the voting list check.

On July 03 2009 08:06 BloodyC0bbler wrote:
Pyrr that has to be at least 4 pledges 3 reg pledges + 1 for suicide bomber. (it says one pledge is a suicide bomber ie should count as a pledge).

Otherwise the KP of 5 is way to high for day 1.
38 players - 8 red = 30/5= 6 days needed to kill us (provided no lynches used) If we lynch townies incorrectly it drops even lower.

So fog should drop the KP of the mafia by 1 or possibly 2 to even it out. It also gives us an idea of how many pledges in the game there are.


As for your equation
all mafia give .5 cept for gf. so mafia looks to have a starting KP of 4.5 rounded up. so math should be as followed.

say 2 pledges total
3.5 - (.5 x 2/2) =3

then 3 + 1(gf kp)
mafia has 4 kp. the only way their KP isnt lowered is if there is exactly 1 pledge.

On July 06 2009 02:37 ydg wrote:
Actively reading the thread? More like coming in randomly to catch up, and seeing how there's nothing happening and so not saying anything. What, do you want me to say something stupid. like sup, every time I come to the thread?

But it's okay, I understand your position, you don't have any legit suspects so you pick on people who you say will be inactive.

And if you actually did any research into me, you'll realize that I almost always vote even if I don't post in the thread, and this is construed as inactive how?

Whatever. Non-voters:
L
inertinept
clasic
kuja
rebirth
scamp

Looking at the high number of abstains, I'd say it's unlikely that either of the two candidates are mafia.

On July 06 2009 02:48 ydg wrote:
Oh and what the hell do you mean I sat back doing nothing? Go back and read the thread maybe, like on page 1 or 2 maybe and, OH MY GOD I ACTUALLY POSTED QUITE A BIT in fact, I was the one who SUGGESTED we do fog first???

Whatever. Once we get mafia down to 4 kp (not due to weather), if the priest role claims publically and all angels protect the priest, and we vote rain every day, mafia will have no way of killing the priest. And, as the ability travels between people, we get more and more confirmed townies. And if mafia decides to role claim priest, the real priest should speak up, but I guess then there will have to be some trust in deciding who the real priest is.

On July 06 2009 09:27 ydg wrote:


The Mr. Julia thing may be a nod towards the pledge-ness of the mafioso member. Or it may be that Mr. Julia is an inept person who burned himself and then couldn't control his rage.

On July 06 2009 09:33 ydg wrote:


side by side comparisons of the only two people we can pinpoint as the exact same from day 1.
Aside from explosions and tall guy, anything else stand out?

EDIT: "The two began setting the device" vs "As one sprinkled fox glove seeds all over the cheese, the tall lanky one kept vigilant in case security was alerted." so they both require some sort of preparation or some sort of planning. Might be insignificant.

On July 06 2009 13:29 ydg wrote:
@foxglove seeds, if you do a simple google search, you see that they are poisonous, which may either be a byproduct of the script or a key indication of the mafioso. But, unless Plexa is some sort of botanist or whatever that works with poisonous foxglove seeds (I've never heard of them before), how does he get foxglove seeds as a weapon o_O.
Remember, Plexa goes (probably) from INFO->CLUE and so we need to see what links TO foxglove seeds and not what foxgloves seeds links to.

How is Plexa going to go from "The flower that blooms in adversity is the most rare and beautiful of all" to foxglove? When someone shows me this connection, I'll vote Araav. But for now, it seems that the people who are adamantly trying to get him lynched are very suspicious.

Also, clues tend to NOT be many things from a person's profile, but a few select details (from my experience, Plexa may be doing it differently) that are heavily emphasized. Thus the vx70GTOJudgexv is very weak, imo, because why would he be connected to so many different things? The main points of Mr Julia are probably the noobiness (ineptness->inertinept lol), this weird pulsating thing, and this rage, which, like I said before, may be because of the greenness of the character.

All in all, I'd say L's analysis seems the most logical to me.

On July 06 2009 13:31 ydg wrote:
Also, isn't it interesting how quick Pyrrh is to support BC's (weak) clue analysis, just as how quick he was to support his platform?

On July 06 2009 13:15 Pyrrhuloxia wrote:
On the entusman thing: entusman to enterman seems highly unlikely to me. Also, So No Fek has "entusman" in his profile, too. There are even more Entus fans, I'm sure.

Also, with the Truthbringer thing. If L's analysis is correct, that's way too many clues for one Day post, especially without Snow in active. Could be that only one is intentional, but I can't imagine Plexa thinking that 5 separate links to the same guy in one post on Day 2 makes sense. I mean I did something like that, but it was a novice game and it was Day 5 or so. Still, more links increase the odds and that's a lot of links.

On July 06 2009 15:23 HeavOnEarth wrote:
also that weak google search u did wasn't even my name spelled correctly
http://www.google.com/search?hl=en&q=heavenearth&cts=1246861326453&aq=f&oq=&aqi=g10
"heavenearth"

however it seems you are keeping on par with your inability to solve anything until the last night of the mafia game.

On July 06 2009 15:42 Malongo wrote:

Good thing you are solving this quickly.

On July 06 2009 15:52 BloodyC0bbler wrote:
We don't have enough clues to get all mafia? Its very common for people to be caught via behavioural analysis, IE Ver, MBH, Ace, qatol, all of those 4 players are good at catching people who mess up in pm's or how they post, and is accepted as lynch worthy information, this is no different.

The first headed straight for the control room. His quickened walk looked almost arrogant as he kept his eyes peeled for any sign of resistance. The Mafioso burst through the control room door and Shikyo leapt from his chair in shock. Disappointed that there was only one occupant, the Mafioso sighed and punched Shikyo in the gut, causing him to fall face first onto the ground. Standing above Shikyo, the Mafioso opened fire on his head. By the end of the incident there was more metal inside of Shikyo’s head than organic material. Satisfied with a job well done, the Mafioso signalled to his colleagues that the Control Room was secure.

The only courage that matters is the kind that gets you from one moment to the next.