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Vatican City State66 Posts
There's been a lot of discussion about this topic, so I thought I'd compare the results of the top players for the last two years.
1. Introduction
I think not enough people are discussing about the difference between skills and performance. What is a Bonjwa? The most skilled player or the player with the best performance (i.e. results)? And if we talk about results, we need to assign a weight to online vs offline performance, how much weight does each carry?
Measuring skills is hard because they it is subjective. Performance (results), on the other hand, are much more quantifiable. Here I compare Soulkey's performance against the top players of each race, with the caveat that performance is an imperfect indicator of skill. For instance, Shuttle is an ASL champion, while Snow is not. In the recent SSL, Action got eliminated by Sea, and in ASL17 Light got eliminated by Shuttle, and Queen, an ASL double champ, didn't even qualify.
Note: I won't try to convince anyone about how to define who is a Bonjwa, nor of the relevance of online vs offline performance. That would be a fruitless uphill battle.
2. Stats and graphs
2.1. Elo score
In a previous post I showed that by far the best performing players up to 2023 had been Snow, Light and Soma, with Soulkey joining them starting in 2024. For completeness sake, I share an updated version of that figure, comparing the 28-day moving-average Elo score of the top two players of each race (if you are not convinced they are the best players of each race, check the post linked above)
Top two/three players of each race:
+ Show Spoiler +
Now let's remove the clutter and focus on the top dogs: Snow, Light, Soma, and Soulkey:
As we can see, Soma used to perform much better than Soulkey, until he started his military service in December 2023 (?). My takeaway from this is that Soulkey still needs to prove himself as the top Zerg once Soma returns.
2.2. Win rate per match up
However, the Elo score doesn't give us a full picture of the performance of a player. So I calculated the win rate % against each race in moving windows of 4 months (where the curves give big steps, the sample size is very small, so the values in those regions should be taken with a grain of salt.
To make the figures below (matchup win %), I only considered the top 16 players, trying to keep a balanced proportion (5P, 5T, 6Z):
- Protoss: Snow, Bisu, Mini, Best, Stork.
- Terran: Light, Rush, Royal, Sharp and JyJ.
- Zerg: Soulkey, Soma, Queen, Hero, Action, Jaedong
- Light:
- Snow
- Soma
- Soulkey
The first, and expected, takeaway is that Light and Snow have shown a level of domination in the mirror matchups that Soma and Soulkey can only dream of. Note: Soma's high win rate % against Zerg in the beginning of 2023 is due to the small sample size, e.g. if you win 3 out out 4 matches, your win rate will be 75%, however this curve is later stabilized in the second quarter of 2023 (the number of ZvZ is very low).
The second takeaway is that Snow consistently dominated all matchups during 2023. In 2024, he has continued to dominate in PvT and PvP, however, his win rate against Zerg has just been slightly above average, if not average. Light and Soma on the other hand, only managed to dominate in two of the three match-ups in 2023. In 2024, the TvT data is too sparse to arrive to any conclusions. Light has improved a lot his TvP during 2024, however, his TvZ dropped dramatically during the first half of 2024, only to recently rise again.
The third takeaway is that Soulkey's domination started only in the second quarter of 2024. From then on, he has improved tremendously in ZvP, with a never-ending upward trend. His ZvT winrate saw a huge increase in Q2-Q3, only to drop to barely around 55% in the last two or three months. People have been attributing this to the map pool change, however, I am not completely convinced. Let's take Radeon as a benchmark, one of the most balanced maps. Since August 1st (roughly when Soulkey starts to drop his performance against Terran), he has won only 1 out of 12 matches against Light in Radeon. I won't delve deeper on the impact of the map pool on the match-ups win% because I don't have time for that.
2.3. Win rate against other top players
Again, for completeness sake, I calculated the win rate against each of the top 16 players mentioned above (ignore the mirror match-ups because the sample size is too small and thus unreliable). For each player, I only considered opponents against whom they had played at leas 100 games. The data are somewhat messy and erratic because of the small sample sizes within each window, so I will just share the figures with a spoiler tag to avoid overwhelming the reader with messy figures unless they choose to see them.
- Light:
+ Show Spoiler +
- Snow:
+ Show Spoiler +
- Soma:
+ Show Spoiler +
- Soulkey:
+ Show Spoiler +
Notably, Soulkey has a <50% winning rate against Light in the recent months. Weirdly enough, no one is talking about it. Soulkey maintains a winning rate > 50% against all other players with a big enough sample size to be considered here. Interestingly, his win rate against Snow in the last 2 or three of months is high (55-62%), but not crazy high as we would be led to believe by the results of SSL.
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Vatican City State66 Posts
Kind of off-topic, but I was surprised to see how well Bisu has been performing against Zerg during 2024. I knew he famously has the best PvZ, but still, was surprised by the difference between him and Snow.
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winning 3 asls in a row = bonjwa, the gap between his skill vs the field made him earn it
winning 3 asls in a row without the most dominant player playing in them = adds a * to it
we'll see about the * once flash competes and how well soulkey does, they're by far the 2 most dominant modern day players tho
and obv at this lvl of play only offline tourney results matter, no1 cares about ur winrate when ur sitting comfy at home playing with no pressure
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Vatican City State66 Posts
On November 05 2024 09:56 TT1 wrote:
no1 cares about ur winrate
No one?
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On November 05 2024 10:31 cheesehuehue wrote:No one?
i meant at the highest lvl, no professional player will respect other peers just cus of their online record (it's viewed more as a practice record), they only care about offline tourney results
but yes online record is a sign of skill lvl, it puts u on the map.. but winning the biggest offline event is confirmation of your skill + being able to deal with all the other variables/intangibles that come with "real competition"
doing that repetitively is a sign of a dominant player that has the complete package, banjo user
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United States1654 Posts
You couldn't have at least waited a few days with such a spoilery title eh?
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Bisutopia19134 Posts
He’s not there yet, but def on the verge imo. If JD doesn’t get to be a bonjwa then the bar is higher than SKs current stats.
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Bro, I swear the definition of Bonjwa has been so bastardized to fit anyones agenda. No one fucking cares about winrate. Otherwise you would have ALL of TBLS be Bonjwa. However, anyone from TBLS at any point in time were not HEAVILY favored against one another. Flash isnt especially since Effort could hold his own in 2010. A Bonjwa is about DOMINANCE, not some winrate because TBLS were farming some noobs.
You can be the GOAT but it doesnt mean that you were a Bonjwa in your era too. GOATness depends heavily on winrate and titles. Bonjwaness depends more heavily on how good your opponents in your era of dominance were. There is a reason the GOATs of each race were during the TBLS era, and nobody really during the Savior era (Nal_ra and an aging OOv lmao)
A Bonjwa is if the player is heavily favored against anyone for some longer period of time. Nobody even agreed on how long but anyone agrees that Savior is the clearest of Bonjwas, who was the CLEAR favorite against everyone until Bisu/FBH. There is a reason he was called Ma Bonjwa.
Soulkey is arguably close to a Bonjwa since he is favored against anyone right now. Not sure about heavily favored (maybe) against anyone.
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Northern Ireland22534 Posts
On November 05 2024 12:12 BisuDagger wrote:
He’s not there yet, but def on the verge imo. If JD doesn’t get to be a bonjwa then the bar is higher than SKs current stats.
I’d argue he’s not even equivalent to Kespa era Bisu, never mind Jaedong.
Look you’re putting in great results in what remains. But there’s not all that much competition, the second you beat Light most thought nobody else could touch you and correctly.
You’ve no Flash, you’ve no Soma, or Larva. If we’re going a bit further back you’ve no Fantasy, you’ve no Janbgi, players who were winning the big titles at the tail end of the Kespa era
For me by all means, best player of this era, absolutely,
But you can’t draw equivalence with peak Kespa era, nor honorifics spawned from that era.
It would be ridiculous to call Soulkey a Bon Jovi for feasting on a diminished scene while Jaedong isn’t despite going pretty much toe to toe with Flash for years at the absolute peak of the game
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United States41404 Posts
On November 05 2024 12:12 BisuDagger wrote:
He’s not there yet, but def on the verge imo. If JD doesn’t get to be a bonjwa then the bar is higher than SKs current stats.
JD's problem was that he coexisted with Flash.
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You talk about dominance, but then Soulkey only needing to be heavily favored. The real issue IMO is the big events aren't as big, there isn't 2 individual events running at the same time while a team league is also going on. I guess you could cite current day proleagues and KCM or whatever you want, but they're nowhere near as official as they were back then as not everyone is in them. Soulkey has a good run going, and he is IMO dominating, but the amount he can dominate is limited by lack of events. He'd have to keep doing it for a lot longer for them to be equal or perhaps someone would need very good statistics on pro league, which might be the case, but how do you value that?
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On November 05 2024 10:37 TT1 wrote:
i meant at the highest lvl, no professional player will respect other peers just cus of their online record (it's viewed more as a practice record), they only care about offline tourney results
I just want to chip in and say that this is just wrong. Online record is literally what they use (mostly) to measure their peers power. Otherwise how did Light and Snow always get picked last in every group selection round? If I only care about offline results, hah these dudes choke most of the times on stage, getting knocked out by the likes of Killer and Shuttle, maybe I should pick them first to my group.
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As for the bonjwa talk I personally has no interest in because it's a Korean thing so let the Koreans decide, if they ever do - but I doubt we would ever reach a consensus since we're not living in the pro era anymore. They're probably now more interested in the dramas between the SC universities rather than debating about Soulkey 's bonjwa status lol.
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SoCal8907 Posts
On November 05 2024 13:20 KwarK wrote:Show nested quote +On November 05 2024 12:12 BisuDagger wrote:
He’s not there yet, but def on the verge imo. If JD doesn’t get to be a bonjwa then the bar is higher than SKs current stats. JD's problem was that he coexisted with Flash.
Kinda feel like we can't give Soulkey bonjwa status until we see them play. It would be really spicy to see them in groups.
Either way, Soulkey is on the verge, but I kinda wanna see someone else win next SSL after this last one :p
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