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Palmar
Iceland22631 Posts
I really need to filter dive CopCake, DMB, MZ, Rels and JSL because there's like 3 mafia in there. One is probably either Oats or Slam, unless we're just the unluckiest town in the world. Also if Slam and Vivax are genuinely town and both claimed on day 1, we deserve to lose. There's gonna be a hidden mafia there somewhere. | ||
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Palmar
Iceland22631 Posts
On March 09 2024 07:09 Jealous wrote: So JSL claiming gunsmith unCC'd doesn't matter to you? I had no idea he claimed that. Also wtf does "unccd" mean.. it's a semi-open setup | ||
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JacobStrangelove
Australia1572 Posts
On March 09 2024 07:09 Jealous wrote: So JSL claiming gunsmith unCC'd doesn't matter to you? I'm starting to think mafia are intentionally dumb slipping a lot in the thread. | ||
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Palmar
Iceland22631 Posts
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JacobStrangelove
Australia1572 Posts
On March 09 2024 07:12 Palmar wrote: I had no idea he claimed that. Also wtf does "unccd" mean.. it's a semi-open setup Do also claimed gun holder for some boosted reason. | ||
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Palmar
Iceland22631 Posts
So then you're just boring, and not scum. Because in this scenario "unccd" is actually valuable information. That's neat though, less people to go through. | ||
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Palmar
Iceland22631 Posts
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JacobStrangelove
Australia1572 Posts
On March 09 2024 07:13 JacobStrangelove wrote: Do also claimed gun holder for some boosted reason. This said now you are continuing to post the fact you spent the time on rayn is okay.... But still sus. | ||
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JacobStrangelove
Australia1572 Posts
Its not boring to call you out in just defending yourself and doing nothing else. Until you do something else. | ||
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Palmar
Iceland22631 Posts
On March 09 2024 07:16 JacobStrangelove wrote: Thought you were going to enter these drop that and dip. Its not boring to call you out in just defending yourself and doing nothing else. Until you do something else. Right but talking about myself is like my favorite thing to do. | ||
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Oatsmaster
United States16627 Posts
Frame math: Slam check 1/18 (lynches + himself) players = 5.56% chance he checks Oats Framer frames 1/14 players (21 - 2 lynches - 5 mafia) = 7.14% chance Oats gets framed This means there's like... 0.3% chance a framer hits the same target the cop checks (but obviously intiution skews this a lot) it's still the best play to do it like that. I don’t mind getting lynched but not because of math this bad… Slam checking me probability is 1 because it happened. So the only probability in play is whether there is a framer and whether the framer landed on me. Consertively let’s say the probability of a framer existing in this game is 0.9 and the probability of the framer landing on me randomly is 0.07 so the total probability is 0.064 which is 6.5% MINIMUM. Now if you bump the probability of a framer up to 1 and consertively say slam had 4 possible cop checks it becomes 25% that I got framed. Miller is not really consequential I agree at this point it’s like a 8% chance it’s on me if it even exists | ||
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Oatsmaster
United States16627 Posts
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Palmar
Iceland22631 Posts
I also ran again into Jealous' incredibly futile high effort bullshit about the interactions between me and rayn. It's so stupid it looks townie  | ||
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Palmar
Iceland22631 Posts
On March 09 2024 07:16 Oatsmaster wrote: I don’t mind getting lynched but not because of math this bad… Slam checking me probability is 1 because it happened. So the only probability in play is whether there is a framer and whether the framer landed on me. Consertively let’s say the probability of a framer existing in this game is 0.9 and the probability of the framer landing on me randomly is 0.07 so the total probability is 0.064 which is 6.5% MINIMUM. Now if you bump the probability of a framer up to 1 and consertively say slam had 4 possible cop checks it becomes 25% that I got framed. Miller is not really consequential I agree at this point it’s like a 8% chance it’s on me if it even exists I mean slam could also just be lying and he's mafia happily going 1 for 1, we already have a ton of blue roles running around. But the math isn't bad. You have to consider the possibility of "Oats gets framed, Slam checks marv" or something. From my vantage point that is an entirely plausible scenario, because I cannot control Slam. This is btw why framer is a terrible role. It's so useless like 99% of the time and randomly swings 1% of games way out of whack. It really shouldn't exist. | ||
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Palmar
Iceland22631 Posts
On March 09 2024 07:17 Oatsmaster wrote: I don’t think it’s really unluckiest town in the world that I got framed when the cop was 100% outing what targets he was gonna check lol Well yeah, because then we're unlucky our cop is a moron. | ||
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Palmar
Iceland22631 Posts
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Oatsmaster
United States16627 Posts
Just like for your records On March 06 2024 11:00 sandroba wrote: oats is very townie imo | ||
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Palmar
Iceland22631 Posts
All the other scenarios ranging from salvage-able to great Oats is mafia: great Slam is mafia: good, 1 for 1 is acceptable Oats is miller: salvageable, at least slam gets confirmed And mafia needs to shoot slam, so Vivax can play mind games whether or not to jail slam in that last scenario. Mafia can't just RB slam, because they need to RB DP if DP is town which I think is the case. | ||
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Palmar
Iceland22631 Posts
On March 09 2024 07:25 Oatsmaster wrote: Hey look Palmar Sandro thought i was town too. Just like for your records Yeah I know I'm like this close to saying fuck math and changing my opinion. But you did make a case on me, which looks bad for you. Not sure I should blame you for that though. Like I'm almost tempted to just fucking lynch slam lol | ||
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Oatsmaster
United States16627 Posts
On March 09 2024 07:21 Palmar wrote: Well yeah, because then we're unlucky our cop is a moron. Fair | ||
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