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A Classy Game of Mafia - Page 252

Forum Index > TL Mafia
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Palmar
Profile Blog Joined July 2010
Iceland22633 Posts
March 08 2024 22:28 GMT
#5021
Would be a good policy lynch, because he claimed day 1.

Problem is slam is chaotic enough to do this bullshit as either alignment. he doesn't actually play with any kind of logic.
Computer says mafia
Palmar
Profile Blog Joined July 2010
Iceland22633 Posts
March 08 2024 22:29 GMT
#5022
As much as I actually can't explain VE's lack of enthusiasm with anything other than him being mafia, I think we NEED to resolve this situation at some point between the red check and slam, and better now than in lylo.

That's another concern of mine. if we just lynch VE, maybe he flips red, maybe he's just lazy and flips green, and we go into the next day just as blind as we did this one, with possibly less mislynches left.
Computer says mafia
Palmar
Profile Blog Joined July 2010
Iceland22633 Posts
March 08 2024 22:30 GMT
#5023
MZ doesn't look great in our topic.

But to be fair, neither do I cause I don't talk to him.
Computer says mafia
Alakaslam
Profile Blog Joined September 2011
United States17336 Posts
March 08 2024 22:31 GMT
#5024
On March 09 2024 07:21 Palmar wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 09 2024 07:16 Oatsmaster wrote:

Frame math:
Slam check 1/18 (lynches + himself) players = 5.56% chance he checks Oats
Framer frames 1/14 players (21 - 2 lynches - 5 mafia) = 7.14% chance Oats gets framed

This means there's like... 0.3% chance a framer hits the same target the cop checks (but obviously intiution skews this a lot) it's still the best play to do it like that.

I don’t mind getting lynched but not because of math this bad…

Slam checking me probability is 1 because it happened.

So the only probability in play is whether there is a framer and whether the framer landed on me.
Consertively let’s say the probability of a framer existing in this game is 0.9 and the probability of the framer landing on me randomly is 0.07 so the total probability is 0.064 which is 6.5% MINIMUM.
Now if you bump the probability of a framer up to 1 and consertively say slam had 4 possible cop checks it becomes 25% that I got framed.

Miller is not really consequential I agree at this point it’s like a 8% chance it’s on me if it even exists


I mean slam could also just be lying and he's mafia happily going 1 for 1, we already have a ton of blue roles running around.

But the math isn't bad. You have to consider the possibility of "Oats gets framed, Slam checks marv" or something. From my vantage point that is an entirely plausible scenario, because I cannot control Slam.

This is btw why framer is a terrible role. It's so useless like 99% of the time and randomly swings 1% of games way out of whack. It really shouldn't exist.

He says he cannot read me.

Look at this, marv was my 4th consideration of 4- but still, it was someone I considered.

3 was a total seekrit
If you think Elon Musk is a Nazi, it is because YOU radicalized him!
Palmar
Profile Blog Joined July 2010
Iceland22633 Posts
March 08 2024 22:32 GMT
#5025
Like I think you've done everything right if you're town Oats, and if you're mafia massive kudos for wool stuff. I am NEVER lynching you here without a red check.

I'll stick around for a little bit while doing other stuff, but I'm just not confident enough in my reads to actually move somewhere else. I think.
Computer says mafia
Palmar
Profile Blog Joined July 2010
Iceland22633 Posts
March 08 2024 22:32 GMT
#5026
On March 09 2024 07:31 Alakaslam wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 09 2024 07:21 Palmar wrote:
On March 09 2024 07:16 Oatsmaster wrote:

Frame math:
Slam check 1/18 (lynches + himself) players = 5.56% chance he checks Oats
Framer frames 1/14 players (21 - 2 lynches - 5 mafia) = 7.14% chance Oats gets framed

This means there's like... 0.3% chance a framer hits the same target the cop checks (but obviously intiution skews this a lot) it's still the best play to do it like that.

I don’t mind getting lynched but not because of math this bad…

Slam checking me probability is 1 because it happened.

So the only probability in play is whether there is a framer and whether the framer landed on me.
Consertively let’s say the probability of a framer existing in this game is 0.9 and the probability of the framer landing on me randomly is 0.07 so the total probability is 0.064 which is 6.5% MINIMUM.
Now if you bump the probability of a framer up to 1 and consertively say slam had 4 possible cop checks it becomes 25% that I got framed.

Miller is not really consequential I agree at this point it’s like a 8% chance it’s on me if it even exists


I mean slam could also just be lying and he's mafia happily going 1 for 1, we already have a ton of blue roles running around.

But the math isn't bad. You have to consider the possibility of "Oats gets framed, Slam checks marv" or something. From my vantage point that is an entirely plausible scenario, because I cannot control Slam.

This is btw why framer is a terrible role. It's so useless like 99% of the time and randomly swings 1% of games way out of whack. It really shouldn't exist.

He says he cannot read me.

Look at this, marv was my 4th consideration of 4- but still, it was someone I considered.

3 was a total seekrit


Harumph
Computer says mafia
Oatsmaster
Profile Joined October 2012
United States16628 Posts
March 08 2024 22:32 GMT
#5027
On March 09 2024 07:21 Palmar wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 09 2024 07:16 Oatsmaster wrote:

Frame math:
Slam check 1/18 (lynches + himself) players = 5.56% chance he checks Oats
Framer frames 1/14 players (21 - 2 lynches - 5 mafia) = 7.14% chance Oats gets framed

This means there's like... 0.3% chance a framer hits the same target the cop checks (but obviously intiution skews this a lot) it's still the best play to do it like that.

I don’t mind getting lynched but not because of math this bad…

Slam checking me probability is 1 because it happened.

So the only probability in play is whether there is a framer and whether the framer landed on me.
Consertively let’s say the probability of a framer existing in this game is 0.9 and the probability of the framer landing on me randomly is 0.07 so the total probability is 0.064 which is 6.5% MINIMUM.
Now if you bump the probability of a framer up to 1 and consertively say slam had 4 possible cop checks it becomes 25% that I got framed.

Miller is not really consequential I agree at this point it’s like a 8% chance it’s on me if it even exists


I mean slam could also just be lying and he's mafia happily going 1 for 1, we already have a ton of blue roles running around.

[b]But the math isn't bad. You have to consider the possibility of "Oats gets framed, Slam checks marv" or something. From my vantage point that is an entirely plausible scenario, because I cannot control Slam.[b]

This is btw why framer is a terrible role. It's so useless like 99% of the time and randomly swings 1% of games way out of whack. It really shouldn't exist.

I mean sure for a future hypothetical scenario, but the current real scenario is he did check me so the probabilities will account for that.

I don’t think the framer role is that swingy, the whole point is to not make the game follow the cop which isn’t fun for anyone. The cop checks just becomes another data point in the analysis but it allows more skill based play.
No gg, No skill.
Koshi
Profile Blog Joined August 2010
Belgium38799 Posts
March 08 2024 22:33 GMT
#5028
Worst math I have seen in a while.
If they have a framer, the chance they picked Oats is the only thing you need to calculate. Add the chance of a miller in there and you know the odds.

The chance they picked Oats is high because our cop decided to bold his fucking name in his reads post after claiming cop.

Chance of Slam not being town and cop is low.


Our blues and DP are so fucking bad that mafia has 1 rb and 3 blues to pick from.

So I guess 2 die tonight. And no tears will be shred.
I had a good night of sleep.
Alakaslam
Profile Blog Joined September 2011
United States17336 Posts
March 08 2024 22:34 GMT
#5029
On March 09 2024 07:28 Palmar wrote:
Would be a good policy lynch, because he claimed day 1.

Problem is slam is chaotic enough to do this bullshit as either alignment. he doesn't actually play with any kind of logic.

I play with logic that comes to most people when they smoke weed.

I overthink each choice to death, get scared of my propensity to overthink, and act on impulse- then realize impulsive behaviour is not so great, and decide to think before I act, in which case I overthink each choice to death, get scared of my propensity to overthink...
If you think Elon Musk is a Nazi, it is because YOU radicalized him!
Alakaslam
Profile Blog Joined September 2011
United States17336 Posts
March 08 2024 22:35 GMT
#5030
On March 09 2024 07:33 Koshi wrote:
Worst math I have seen in a while.
If they have a framer, the chance they picked Oats is the only thing you need to calculate. Add the chance of a miller in there and you know the odds.

The chance they picked Oats is high because our cop decided to bold his fucking name in his reads post after claiming cop.

Chance of Slam not being town and cop is low.


Our blues and DP are so fucking bad that mafia has 1 rb and 3 blues to pick from.

So I guess 2 die tonight. And no tears will be shred.

Wait did I do that?
If you think Elon Musk is a Nazi, it is because YOU radicalized him!
Alakaslam
Profile Blog Joined September 2011
United States17336 Posts
March 08 2024 22:36 GMT
#5031
Show the post or it didn't happen, post number not a quote
If you think Elon Musk is a Nazi, it is because YOU radicalized him!
Alakaslam
Profile Blog Joined September 2011
United States17336 Posts
March 08 2024 22:36 GMT
#5032
I never bolded Oats name
If you think Elon Musk is a Nazi, it is because YOU radicalized him!
Alakaslam
Profile Blog Joined September 2011
United States17336 Posts
March 08 2024 22:37 GMT
#5033
I tried to hide that intent actually after a certain way into D1
If you think Elon Musk is a Nazi, it is because YOU radicalized him!
Alakaslam
Profile Blog Joined September 2011
United States17336 Posts
March 08 2024 22:37 GMT
#5034
Koshi why are you lying about shit?
If you think Elon Musk is a Nazi, it is because YOU radicalized him!
Koshi
Profile Blog Joined August 2010
Belgium38799 Posts
March 08 2024 22:37 GMT
#5035
On March 07 2024 11:55 Alakaslam wrote:
Reads from the S.L.A.M. fish! Yay! I really ought to ask to have my icon changed to a nuclear silo add-on...


Ahem. Of course, much of my incomprehensible nature comes from the fact that 90%of the time, I am phone posting. This has been true since 2012.

Please forgive any typos. I will keep trolling to a minimum.

Unfortunately, I have the random access memory of a gaming pc hopped up on PCI SSD hardware, but the hard memory of a commodore 64- so, what sticks sticks and what doesn't doesn't, so a lot of what and not a whole lot of why. This is almost as unpleasant for me as it is for you. I want to please, but I basically cannot.


That being said, reads!

By popular demand,
Die_meatbaby: Null to town. As Palmar sees me, so also I see Die_meatbaby. I can't actually read her that well. But whenever people have pedantic bullshit reasons for lynching, I get the heebie weenies. I have had them when lynching scum and switched off, so this feeling is unreliable. But dude Oats it's largely ESL and new and most game experience for her is with Slam, Chezinu, Copcake, and like, more trolls plus maybe Palmar and Marv just kinda dominating until Rayn starts yelling at them with her partner taking potshots as an equal opportunity confuser on a level to make me blush.

CopCake: similarly, her recent games have been full of trolls and gods with no Romans in between. That being said, she knows what Rome is like. She has seen it.
I think people forget that she is now doing as Romans do.
Null town.

For me, by the way, Null implies weak feeling. I can be unsure strongly, you will see when.

Darthpunk. That's when. There are times when I am certain he is scum, and times I am certain he is town. I can't call him Null and feel right. But I don't know which way ti call it.

Iamperfection is town.

Oats is pedantic. Pure unsure strongly.

Jealous is almost certainly town, or power scum. I tend to the former.

Rayn is lock town.

Marv likely town.

Please listen to iamp and lynch VisceraEyes. If for nothing else for pressure but ai think something else is there.

Shit 655 another post may be coming

So give some grace.

No sorry you didnt. Maybe some1 else did it in your post or I dreamed it.
I had a good night of sleep.
Alakaslam
Profile Blog Joined September 2011
United States17336 Posts
March 08 2024 22:38 GMT
#5036
Like MZ that could be true but I am starting to build a team:
MZ Koshi Oats VE and ???
If you think Elon Musk is a Nazi, it is because YOU radicalized him!
Alakaslam
Profile Blog Joined September 2011
United States17336 Posts
March 08 2024 22:39 GMT
#5037
Wait you are saying that the mafia team is playing THAT fast?

6:55 my time is 5 minutes until deadline
If you think Elon Musk is a Nazi, it is because YOU radicalized him!
Oatsmaster
Profile Joined October 2012
United States16628 Posts
March 08 2024 22:40 GMT
#5038
On March 09 2024 07:39 Alakaslam wrote:
Wait you are saying that the mafia team is playing THAT fast?

6:55 my time is 5 minutes until deadline

5’minutes is plenty of time to submit an action.
Normally people post end of night stuff like the minute before
No gg, No skill.
Koshi
Profile Blog Joined August 2010
Belgium38799 Posts
March 08 2024 22:40 GMT
#5039
On March 09 2024 07:39 Alakaslam wrote:
Wait you are saying that the mafia team is playing THAT fast?

6:55 my time is 5 minutes until deadline

Ok first time I see the timestamp.
Ok ok ok

I admit.

I guess the chance is low but I dont believe Oats is mafia.
I had a good night of sleep.
Jealous
Profile Blog Joined December 2011
10310 Posts
March 08 2024 22:41 GMT
#5040
On March 09 2024 07:18 Palmar wrote:
So if I can drop JSL, and for different reasons, Jealous, that makes the game even clearer.

I also ran again into Jealous' incredibly futile high effort bullshit about the interactions between me and rayn. It's so stupid it looks townie

Trust me, I was not happy doing it. Vivax asked me to look into it so I thought there must be something there. To be fair, Vivax didn't ask me to do all that. But, I was still pretty pissed when I found out it was basically a nothingburger.

Live and learn.
"The right to vote is only the oar of the slaveship, I wanna be free." -- бум бум сучка!
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