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On September 12 2016 23:24 Tumblewood wrote:Show nested quote +On September 12 2016 23:21 Palmar wrote:On September 12 2016 23:20 Tumblewood wrote:On September 12 2016 19:49 Palmar wrote:On September 12 2016 09:07 Tumblewood wrote:
the premise of this argument is that hf is scum. using the premise as backup, we can easily conclude that hf is indeed scum.
anyway
known to some as holyflare, to others as hf, to his rl friends by some stupid rl name, but to tl as lynchbait slayer.
first, I propose a question to you, reader: can you make an accurate read on someone based off of just five posts?
the answer is no, holyflare. no.
this is basic stuff. honestly. tt doesn't have a meta like marv of making 2 posts and then quitting as scum. that doesn't even matter though, because the basis of hf's attack was completely unrelated to the fact that tt was afk. it was, in fact, a dissection of tt's five total posts. and not a point about how he was a great policy lynch for his lack of posting. hmmm
throughout the game, hf shows a willingness to favor painting every road as leading to tt is scum over thinking critically about his alignment, and generally not being a jackass.
you might expect that this case would have quotes, but hf's filter is probably 50 million pages and also my arguments that involve quotes usually result in me missing the point of the argument or, worse, doubting my original read.
this is a reminder to go read grack's case. it is better.
hf also shows an amazing willingness to call obviously townie people scum for not getting onto his stupid wagon
his filter is 95% devoted to lynching townies if that says anything.
...
god, I can't do this anymore. I don't think this is a lost cause, but my entire case, I think, hinges on me being town. honestly, try being me and it's really fucking easy to see how hf is scum.
this is why I don't make big scum casesThis is terrible and I'll break down why: On September 12 2016 09:07 Tumblewood wrote:
first, I propose a question to you, reader: can you make an accurate read on someone based off of just five posts?
the answer is no, holyflare. no. Actually you can. In most cases it's a single post or two where mafia fucks up that allows you to make a case. No mafia is bad enough to give himself away every single post he makes. This is why I generally ignore humongous cases that quote almost every post by someone and try to paint them scummy. It's very easy to make an accurate read on someone on even a single post (see me vs marv in some game and me vs tnkted in some other game, cba referencing). On September 12 2016 09:07 Tumblewood wrote:
this is basic stuff. honestly. tt doesn't have a meta like marv of making 2 posts and then quitting as scum. that doesn't even matter though, because the basis of hf's attack was completely unrelated to the fact that tt was afk. it was, in fact, a dissection of tt's five total posts. and not a point about how he was a great policy lynch for his lack of posting. hmmm
throughout the game, hf shows a willingness to favor painting every road as leading to tt is scum over thinking critically about his alignment, and generally not being a jackass. TT did things that are objectively scummy, I don't care what you think about meta or history. I generally don't use meta all that much. Here's my own interpretation of TT's filter. On September 11 2016 05:14 Palmar wrote:On September 11 2016 05:08 Calix wrote:
Oh for fuck's sake. This train is woeful and everyone is just content to slap a vote down >_> It's not about that. Tictock is objectively scummy. He did that thing in the early game with the scumclaim. That's fine and all, and loads of people do it, but the only way it ever works out for town is if you then follow up by looking at the people who react to it. He did very little analysis following the claim. He also did the whole "I'll talk more after dinner" and then disappeared. If he had just disappeared it wouldn't have meant anything, but because he claimed he'd be back it's clear he wanted to appear as if he was contributing. Neither of these make him lock mafia, but both of them, combined with his short filter and poorly explained reads make him a pretty solid day 1 lynch. He is a high % mafia target. Notice that none of this is "meta" or takes into account how he acts as a player. I just don't care about meta. Sometimes I'm wrong because of it (I once lynched kush in lylo for refusing to post coherently and putting in effort), but most of the times it's very effective. On September 12 2016 09:07 Tumblewood wrote:
you might expect that this case would have quotes, but hf's filter is probably 50 million pages and also my arguments that involve quotes usually result in me missing the point of the argument or, worse, doubting my original read. If you are town you should. If you are correct, you wouldn't have a reason to doubt your read, and if you are wrong you might realize why. But I guess that would require pretending to put in effort.
I'm not even 100% sure you're mafia TW, but you are objectively the best lynch. You've made a bunch of terrible posts, you're not pushing the game forward, there's even dumb reasons to think you're scum (no one wanted to switch with me on d1) This is almost written as sort of an offer to let you redeem yourself. If you are town, you need to put in time and effort. Go write analysis or thoughts on every player in the game. Pro-Tip: if you're mafia make sure you're careful when you write about your buddies  fuck that. writing analysis is by far the worst part of my game. any case with more than one point goes down the shitter. fortunately I don't actually have to play by your rules Fine, get lynched then. I don't care if your meta is always being useless, that's scum favored meta and you should be lynched for it. Who knows when you're useless AND scum. Maybe it's this time! Hell, it's probably this time. meta is always being useless? reminds me of someone...
don't know how you can really say I am being useless. if we're going by whatever bullshit metric you use about ten players are useless this game. I am one of the most present, least useless players in the game.
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On September 12 2016 23:25 Palmar wrote:Show nested quote +On September 12 2016 23:25 Tumblewood wrote:On September 12 2016 23:22 Superbia wrote:
Does anyone have an actual opinion on fuba btw? yes. he is lock town imo why
whenever he posts I am like "wow I don't think he could post that as scum." also his argument with nu was clearly TvT
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TW who is actually scum? Like who's the three scum?
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On September 12 2016 23:27 Tumblewood wrote:Show nested quote +On September 12 2016 23:24 Tumblewood wrote:On September 12 2016 23:21 Palmar wrote:On September 12 2016 23:20 Tumblewood wrote:On September 12 2016 19:49 Palmar wrote:On September 12 2016 09:07 Tumblewood wrote:
the premise of this argument is that hf is scum. using the premise as backup, we can easily conclude that hf is indeed scum.
anyway
known to some as holyflare, to others as hf, to his rl friends by some stupid rl name, but to tl as lynchbait slayer.
first, I propose a question to you, reader: can you make an accurate read on someone based off of just five posts?
the answer is no, holyflare. no.
this is basic stuff. honestly. tt doesn't have a meta like marv of making 2 posts and then quitting as scum. that doesn't even matter though, because the basis of hf's attack was completely unrelated to the fact that tt was afk. it was, in fact, a dissection of tt's five total posts. and not a point about how he was a great policy lynch for his lack of posting. hmmm
throughout the game, hf shows a willingness to favor painting every road as leading to tt is scum over thinking critically about his alignment, and generally not being a jackass.
you might expect that this case would have quotes, but hf's filter is probably 50 million pages and also my arguments that involve quotes usually result in me missing the point of the argument or, worse, doubting my original read.
this is a reminder to go read grack's case. it is better.
hf also shows an amazing willingness to call obviously townie people scum for not getting onto his stupid wagon
his filter is 95% devoted to lynching townies if that says anything.
...
god, I can't do this anymore. I don't think this is a lost cause, but my entire case, I think, hinges on me being town. honestly, try being me and it's really fucking easy to see how hf is scum.
this is why I don't make big scum casesThis is terrible and I'll break down why: On September 12 2016 09:07 Tumblewood wrote:
first, I propose a question to you, reader: can you make an accurate read on someone based off of just five posts?
the answer is no, holyflare. no. Actually you can. In most cases it's a single post or two where mafia fucks up that allows you to make a case. No mafia is bad enough to give himself away every single post he makes. This is why I generally ignore humongous cases that quote almost every post by someone and try to paint them scummy. It's very easy to make an accurate read on someone on even a single post (see me vs marv in some game and me vs tnkted in some other game, cba referencing). On September 12 2016 09:07 Tumblewood wrote:
this is basic stuff. honestly. tt doesn't have a meta like marv of making 2 posts and then quitting as scum. that doesn't even matter though, because the basis of hf's attack was completely unrelated to the fact that tt was afk. it was, in fact, a dissection of tt's five total posts. and not a point about how he was a great policy lynch for his lack of posting. hmmm
throughout the game, hf shows a willingness to favor painting every road as leading to tt is scum over thinking critically about his alignment, and generally not being a jackass. TT did things that are objectively scummy, I don't care what you think about meta or history. I generally don't use meta all that much. Here's my own interpretation of TT's filter. On September 11 2016 05:14 Palmar wrote:On September 11 2016 05:08 Calix wrote:
Oh for fuck's sake. This train is woeful and everyone is just content to slap a vote down >_> It's not about that. Tictock is objectively scummy. He did that thing in the early game with the scumclaim. That's fine and all, and loads of people do it, but the only way it ever works out for town is if you then follow up by looking at the people who react to it. He did very little analysis following the claim. He also did the whole "I'll talk more after dinner" and then disappeared. If he had just disappeared it wouldn't have meant anything, but because he claimed he'd be back it's clear he wanted to appear as if he was contributing. Neither of these make him lock mafia, but both of them, combined with his short filter and poorly explained reads make him a pretty solid day 1 lynch. He is a high % mafia target. Notice that none of this is "meta" or takes into account how he acts as a player. I just don't care about meta. Sometimes I'm wrong because of it (I once lynched kush in lylo for refusing to post coherently and putting in effort), but most of the times it's very effective. On September 12 2016 09:07 Tumblewood wrote:
you might expect that this case would have quotes, but hf's filter is probably 50 million pages and also my arguments that involve quotes usually result in me missing the point of the argument or, worse, doubting my original read. If you are town you should. If you are correct, you wouldn't have a reason to doubt your read, and if you are wrong you might realize why. But I guess that would require pretending to put in effort.
I'm not even 100% sure you're mafia TW, but you are objectively the best lynch. You've made a bunch of terrible posts, you're not pushing the game forward, there's even dumb reasons to think you're scum (no one wanted to switch with me on d1) This is almost written as sort of an offer to let you redeem yourself. If you are town, you need to put in time and effort. Go write analysis or thoughts on every player in the game. Pro-Tip: if you're mafia make sure you're careful when you write about your buddies fuck that. writing analysis is by far the worst part of my game. any case with more than one point goes down the shitter. fortunately I don't actually have to play by your rules Fine, get lynched then. I don't care if your meta is always being useless, that's scum favored meta and you should be lynched for it. Who knows when you're useless AND scum. Maybe it's this time! Hell, it's probably this time. meta is always being useless? reminds me of someone... don't know how you can really say I am being useless. if we're going by whatever bullshit metric you use about ten players are useless this game. I am one of the most present, least useless players in the game.
Quit whining and do your job and maybe everything will be fine.
Yes, there's a ton of people who are useless. You are currently the one I'm lynching, so prove that someone else deserves to be lynched. Write a case that convinces me!
It's how mafia goes.
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On September 12 2016 23:20 Palmar wrote:Show nested quote +On September 12 2016 23:13 Damdred wrote:On September 12 2016 23:09 Palmar wrote:On September 12 2016 22:52 Damdred wrote:
Eh I was starting to do some work in game but i really don't want to today, I guess i'll do it later when i feel motivated.
In any case kind of stinks that people who know me well think i would make such a bad kill as scum instead of someone who can actually get me lynched meh. That's bullshit logic Damdred. Well yeah its wifom, whatever just really don't feel up to doing anything today. Don't care (much) about lazy, care a lot about shitty logic.
Its not logic its just the truth, you kill the people you think will most likely solve the game. Its not really a point either way.
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On September 12 2016 23:30 Damdred wrote:Show nested quote +On September 12 2016 23:20 Palmar wrote:On September 12 2016 23:13 Damdred wrote:On September 12 2016 23:09 Palmar wrote:On September 12 2016 22:52 Damdred wrote:
Eh I was starting to do some work in game but i really don't want to today, I guess i'll do it later when i feel motivated.
In any case kind of stinks that people who know me well think i would make such a bad kill as scum instead of someone who can actually get me lynched meh. That's bullshit logic Damdred. Well yeah its wifom, whatever just really don't feel up to doing anything today. Don't care (much) about lazy, care a lot about shitty logic. Its not logic its just the truth, you kill the people you think will most likely solve the game. Its not really a point either way.
by that logic no one is mafia. Good job damdred, game solved.
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On September 12 2016 23:33 Palmar wrote:Show nested quote +On September 12 2016 23:30 Damdred wrote:On September 12 2016 23:20 Palmar wrote:On September 12 2016 23:13 Damdred wrote:On September 12 2016 23:09 Palmar wrote:On September 12 2016 22:52 Damdred wrote:
Eh I was starting to do some work in game but i really don't want to today, I guess i'll do it later when i feel motivated.
In any case kind of stinks that people who know me well think i would make such a bad kill as scum instead of someone who can actually get me lynched meh. That's bullshit logic Damdred. Well yeah its wifom, whatever just really don't feel up to doing anything today. Don't care (much) about lazy, care a lot about shitty logic. Its not logic its just the truth, you kill the people you think will most likely solve the game. Its not really a point either way. by that logic no one is mafia. Good job damdred, game solved.
You know I had something typed out, but I won't say it. I'm sorry I posted something so shitty Palmar it was just out of frustration over things and wasn't thinking clearly.
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On a serious note
Skynx/Tumblewood/(Shapelog/Vivax)
is what my scum team looks like currently
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I'm not trying to be an ass damdred.
If people use bad logic to try to support faulty conclusions meant to affect people's game, I call them out.
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On September 12 2016 23:29 Superbia wrote:
TW who is actually scum? Like who's the three scum?
thinking it's between (from most to least likely) hf/shape/damdred/palmar/you. I haven't narrowed it down to three yet.
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Picking up where I left yesterday, I'm snipping out one part here (when he talks about the Calix discussion, doesn't yield anything interesting). My comments are in [] brackets.
On September 11 2016 23:46 fuba wrote:
Morning.
Got a few minutes before work. To answer NU's questions (paraphrasing, on my phone):
Why did I vote for tt? The narrative HF originally laid out made sense to me, and then tt disappearing after it just reinforced it. At the end of the day, I could still see scum behaving as he had, so my vote didn't change. I didn't see any reason that HF exaggerating his sureness was indicative of the case being bad. Though iirc he later mentions that he no longer had a scum read (or maybe it was just a weaker scum read? Would have to look it up) on tt and was lynching for information at that point. That bugs me. Mostly because I'm not sure how much reasonably confident information we got from the lynch. Maybe that'll come to me when I reread EoD.
Who are my scum reads? I'll have to get back to you on that one. My two yesterday were you and tt, which is more that I usually have d1 XD. One was proven wrong, the other I'm currently believing is town. Have to dive some filters and probably reread EoD to develop some more.
I also have some thoughts on TW that are almost completely unrelated to this game, and actually take place in an obs QT for another game that he wasn't in as far as I remember, but there are similarities to this game and I was wondering what other people's thoughts were on it. In one of my previous town games I made a case on a suspected scum being town. In the obs QT, it was declared that I was town for doing so by most people present, even if they were unsure of me before. Does anyone feel that this could apply to TW in this game? I could try to find the game, but would have to wait until a few hours after start of day.
[The thoughts on TW are really uninformative. The argument is that anyone defending town with a case could be town, I don't even get if he's talking about TW defending Calix or TT, and fuba doesn't check it out, doesn't relate to TW's posts and mention examples of this being the case somewhere, he just puts the question out there where it will continue to not bear any fruits. This looks like a prime example of an uncontributive post being buffed with lots of words. Also it's weird he thinks finding the game will change anything about people's reads about TW]
On one hand, I understand that scum have an easy time town reading people (if they're town) because they know they're town. They know it's from a town perspective because everything has to be. On the other, why defend a high content poster once the thread starts swinging slightly against them if your goal is to get them killed? The ability to defend town is greater, but the reason for doing it seems far less so. I know that these scenarios assume tw scum and calix town, but I'm leaving out the possibility that they're both scum because that would be a hard defense of a scum buddy. Which I guess could happen, but it doesn't feel likely? The scenario feels like either both town or one scum.
[Another part that looks big but doesn't say anything. You're never going to get information speculating if somebody defending town was scum. Scum can do a bit of both in a game of a lot of players. He concludes...nothing, as expected of trying to reach a conclusion from wifom. His only goal I could see here is to slap a wall of words instead of simply saying "TW + Calix feel like T+T or T+S"]
I needed to ask because it'll be on my mind until it's resolved (think NU's lynchbait comment).
On September 12 2016 11:51 fuba wrote:
Unfortunately, I need to focus on schoolwork tonight. After class tomorrow, I don't work for 4 days, so my availability should open up.
I'm glad I stopped tunneling you NU, I really liked your last few posts. The stuff about a TW lynch feeling a lot like the TT lynch was exactly what I was thinking at the moment. At least as it pertains to HF. Not saying it makes him scummy, it just has the exact same feeling to it. And if you want my response to the calix NK, it's generally that very few conclusions can be drawn. That's not to say I have no ideas about why it was done, but there's no way to narrow it down from 50 possibilities to even a reasonable fraction of them, so I'm not gonna throw my speculation out there XD
Was gonna call vivax out for trying to get HF to fight his battles for him, but I reread his filter really quick and it actually seems like his read on me has been fluctuating pretty reasonably all game. Incorrect whenever he thinks I'm scum, but I can see the thought behind it, and I think I can remember the approximate timing of most of the posts and I can understand them. He doesn't really push too hard, but at least I think I can see a townie thought process.
Also, without having reread any cases on anyone, so many of TW's posts feel like posts that I make or have made as town that I have trouble really seeing him as scum. He seems better able to let himself post freely, regardless of the consequences, than I do, but I feel some kind of "bad townie" (for lack of a better term) kinship.
Oh, and I really, really wouldn't rely too much on the ghosts or speculation about it. Like, anyone who knows scott shadowed HF or whatever could have set up that little code. Scum can control the LW and scum can control the votes. I don't want to lose because we trust in something we know that scum will try to use against us.
Yay townreads! Scum will come once I have the time to reread more filters XD (should be around the second half of D2 :S)
This post is mostly just here to see if he actually did any of the things he promised in the previous post which doesn't seem like he did. His NU scumread turned to town for his latest posts. Ok.
What about the famous game he talked about? What about EoD and HF changing reads on TT? No delivery. Fuba mostly just talks a lot to say very little. Which doesn't surprise me cause he just pops in occasionally with probably great pressure to look super contributive, but since he's actually doing very little, he fluffs up the posts like a pro.
I think we should lynch him before we lynch TW cause TW at least shows some degree of consistent presence whereas fuba is under the radar 90 % and when he shows up he throws up a post that only really talks about irrelevant stuff in an overly worded way. Scott's message is old news, and nobody is really interested in figuring out NUs alignment at this point. But I guess he felt he had to put it in there for consistency otherwise somebody could call him out for forgetting about his scumread on him.
I'll be voting accordingly.
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On September 12 2016 23:22 Tumblewood wrote:
this would be a useful question to ask: hf, as scum, would you have killed me for my reads?
No he wouldn't. I think HF makes pretty similar kills as I do. Kill off the unlynchables, leave in the people you can lynch.
On September 12 2016 23:24 Palmar wrote:Show nested quote +On September 12 2016 23:22 Superbia wrote:
Does anyone have an actual opinion on fuba btw? He pops in and gives sort of "status updates". It's a semi-scummy way to play but the little content I've read has been fine. I wish he would actually engage someone when he's in the thread, instead of just posting what feels like news pieces from fubaworld. I don't know and I don't really care until I have a reason to lynch someone other than TW.
You still haven't given your reasons for why TW is scum. I think he's actually got a lot more posts than other people to be able to use to get a solid read.
Also, define what you mean when you say this because I'm pretty much always here lol. Is it just that you think it was weird I didn't explain to Superbia why his plan was stupid or is there something else.
On September 11 2016 23:12 Palmar wrote:
Grack posts like mafia with the sass of a townie btw.
All his posts come at awkward times (like him casually dropping by while superbia and I were figuring out the mechanics, and most of his EOD posts), but he posts them like he's the king of the world and directly to me which means he's not afraid of me, which is something.
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Wtf the TL cake lies to me.
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United Kingdom30774 Posts
On September 12 2016 23:22 Tumblewood wrote:
this would be a useful question to ask: hf, as scum, would you have killed me for my reads?
0/20 times, I would shit up the thread instead
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United Kingdom30774 Posts
I actually don't hate a vivax case, must be a bus.
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United Kingdom30774 Posts
Actually really like it enough to vote fuba. All posts for stances and no results.
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On September 13 2016 00:48 Holyflare wrote:Show nested quote +On September 12 2016 23:22 Tumblewood wrote:
this would be a useful question to ask: hf, as scum, would you have killed me for my reads? 0/20 times, I would shit up the thread instead
Btw I'm actually going to leave you alone today and look at other people because I have absolutely nothing new to add and nobody wants to lynch you.
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United Kingdom30774 Posts
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On September 13 2016 00:59 Holyflare wrote:
A+ tactic
But I'm never going to win this anyways and you know it lol. There's probably some good lynch out there that I can actually get.
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EPT
