|
On November 12 2015 04:17 kitaman27 wrote:Show nested quote +On November 12 2015 03:56 Half the Sky wrote:
AT THAT TIME, he mentioned they couldn't possibly stand out as teammates, but both have one major thing in common - the reads on each other were a stretch which is common(ish) when mafia need to discredit each other.
From the first failed mission I am 99.9% Xatalos is the saboteur, and the above plus sicklucker's points on Superbia (prior to the fully afk) lurky game make this combination a bit more likely. Again, let me remind everyone SUPERBIA HAD JACK ALL ON NOMS Day 1.
From a mafia mindset he might not have wanted to give anyone away! Thoughts?
Kita, Kita, Kita, where are you... When you were on the fence with the day one team between Xata and Super, Xata seemed pretty interested in getting himself included. He didn't discredit the super team completely, but he showed the preference towards being the one you chose. If they were buddies, it wouldn't really matter much which of the two was picked. I suppose he could be trying to emulate how a town player would think there. Super voting no on the rayn/xata/SL team suggests they aren't buddies, but I guess one of the spies voted no d1 if today fails, unless rayn is the bad guy. I'll have to do a re-read on super/vivax and Rels if the game isn't over in a couple hours
More food for thought re: Xata/Super
On November 09 2015 16:53 Artanis[Xp] wrote:Show nested quote +On November 09 2015 09:01 Xatalos wrote:
I guess Superbia/Rels/kita look good for the NO votes at least. It's decently likely that the group is "pure" just based on that. Superbia hasn't really looked bad regardless so it's kind of likely he's town. kita and Rels... Are more questionable for me. I think both of them could have well done what they've done here as scum... It's mostly the NO votes that gives them credit IMO
Meanwhile Artanis does indeed suffer from the YES vote, much like HTS, especially because they weren't on the mission team themselves (I think it's more natural to vote YES if you're included on the mission than if not...). Just considering that, it might actually not be the best idea to include either of them on the next mission.... You think Superbia looks the best between Superbia/Kita/Rels? He's actually the one I'm questioning the most from my townreads. He has looked pretty good at times, but the inactivity is worrying. Also, given how you've butted heads with him a lot, where does the strong townread come from? I know you read him as town earlier, but not strongly and he hasn't really done much since other than vote no.
|
On November 12 2015 04:55 Xatalos wrote:Show nested quote +On November 12 2015 02:30 Rels wrote:Xata you still didn't answer this: On November 11 2015 01:56 Rels wrote:On November 10 2015 23:39 Xatalos wrote:On November 10 2015 22:49 Rels wrote:
Xata, why are you suspicious of me ?
Why are you suspicious of kita ? The NO votes look good for you two, it's just not on the level of a confident townread. Kita for being so vague and non-committal throughout the game, and you because your recent scumgames looked pretty similar to this game too (very active and engaged..). Now that I think about it, though, scum HTS would have had no good reason to put scum Kita into the first team.... So that gives kita a bit more credibility at least. So is kita scum or not ? If yes can you expand on him being vague ? Your reason for scumreading me are bad. Is that it ? Well, it's more PoE than anything really. Meaning that I thought rayn and Superbia looked better than you two. I didn't even call you two scum there  Vague as in being evasive about his own reads and mostly asking questions / taking a pretty neutral stance on things.
Perfect timing, this (plus what Artanis highlighted in my previous post) is a few examples of what I mean by the shallow reads from Xatalos.
"So can you expand on him being vague?"
You said he was evasive on his own reads - he provided a list post early on and even clarified where he stood after he gathered reads from people.
This one is particularly bad because there are no hard conclusions on anyone in that post and also Superbia had hardly done jack all - stressed again by Artanis in my last post, yet he's placing him above Kita/Rels, both of whom have done/posted a substantial amount for the game regardless of their alignment.
And he PoEed someone (anyone, be it Rels or whoever) after eliminating someone whose hardly done much for the game in comparison, and especially without explaining why.
The reads are beyond awkward for a town player.
|
On November 10 2015 21:54 Xatalos wrote:Show nested quote +On November 10 2015 08:20 sicklucker wrote:On November 10 2015 06:23 Xatalos wrote:
Is this the final team rayn? Could you replace kita/Rels with myself and perhaps Artanis?
It's just saddening that even though that would improve the chances of success, it would also decrease the chances of the team being approved :/
And then there's shockeyy/Rels/SL's teams coming up.......... I doubt shockeyy/Rels's teams would either get approved or succeed, and SL would just automatically make a failing team... Sigh. holy shit i might vote yes just to see if the scum team is like xata art +1 Show nested quote +On November 10 2015 08:08 Half the Sky wrote:
So looks like we need to see more from Vivax and then will need to tinfoil Kita, but at the moment (operative words being at the moment) I would upvote this team.
Kita, any followup, shout (#2183). I warn you as I did Rels, work is going to bury me tomorrow (0800-2200 again FML), but I'll do my best.
Good night. I was considering voting YES (since the next leaders wouldn't most likely suggest anything better than this), but these endorsements really give me the creeps....... Both SL/HTS being excited about the team..... Geh :/ Kind of feels like there could be scum included after all. Thoughts, rayn?
On November 10 2015 22:00 Xatalos wrote:Show nested quote +On November 10 2015 21:56 raynpelikoneet wrote:
Don't care. I trust on my reads more on to what mafia might wifom. You seemed very confident in the earlier me/SL argument though? You mean they could be trying to reproduce that argument now....? I guess it's possible. Still concerns me quite a bit....
On November 10 2015 22:02 Xatalos wrote:
Then again, otherwise this will probably go to SL's decision -> fail..... It's like picking between ebola and AIDS....
On November 10 2015 22:33 Xatalos wrote:Show nested quote +On November 10 2015 22:26 raynpelikoneet wrote:On November 10 2015 22:02 Xatalos wrote:
Then again, otherwise this will probably go to SL's decision -> fail..... It's like picking between ebola and AIDS.... I don't know why you would be "picking between ebola and AIDS" if you can't even make a case on why i should not include kita/Rels on my team... Mainly just that I'm not that confident on them + SL/HTS endorsing this team. It's not like it's the worst team in itself. Just not the best, and endorsed by the two most likely scum :/
And after all this, guess who voted yes to this team? Not sicklucker, folks...
(Yeah, I did too, but I explained why immediately after the result.)
|
So after hard scumreading both me and hts for the better part of the game, rels decides I am confirmed mafia and HtS is confirmed town in the event of a fail as soon as he comes back to the thread, with me being in all of his potential teams.
Why does anyone consider him town again?
|
And somehow I'd be scummier for voting no on a mission with scum on it, whereas hts would now be cleared for it. Also twisting what I said; I was still suspicious of him as hts said.
Pls to never take him on a mission again kthx.
|
So anyway, the fact that rels is already trying to throw shit on me before the mission failed makes me pretty sure he's scum. Looking at potential partners, I actually don't think shockeyy's scum. Two reasons:
A) he really hasn't been playing to any kind of wincon and in the end I have to admit it probably means he's town.
B) I don't think mafia rels would be the first to risk townreading shockeyy whom looked really bad.
As for HtS, I actually think she might be town. The way she keeps on trucking and focuses on solving the game even in the face of being nearly universally townread makes me eerie.
Which means there must be a scum in kita/vivax too since scum xata would never nominate scum sl with him and rayn is never scum this game. Gonna have to focus on that later.
|
On November 12 2015 03:56 Half the Sky wrote:Show nested quote +On November 12 2015 03:25 Vivax wrote:
Do you really think I can be spy with Xata, Rels? After what superbia did to him right at the start of D1?
For now we can just chill and wait for the outcome. All this speculation pre-result is even too tinfoil for me. Kita made a good point as to why you sure could be. Show nested quote +On November 03 2015 00:07 kitaman27 wrote:On November 02 2015 20:41 Superbia wrote:
2. It downplays scum.
2 is super weird from a town perspective, and leans me more towards mafia. Regardless I feel like commenting on how "weak" mafia is is mafia indicative as it sets up for a lax game. This seems like quite the over analysis for an intro one-liner. There doesn't have to be spy motivation in every post. Why conclude that he is somehow pushing an agenda where it benefits him to trick town into thinking the spies will get steam rolled. On November 02 2015 20:41 Superbia wrote:
I feel like if you were town and believed this you would've focused on the strength of town, rather than the weakness of mafia, and as a result, would've said something along the lines of "mafia gonna get #rekt #noqt" (or something less trolly) Really a stretch here. More speculation without basis than anything. This is where Kita was day 1. Obviously on the back on new information, and looking how he has interacted with people and THESE READS.... Show nested quote +On November 04 2015 04:28 kitaman27 wrote:Here are my reads so far. I'm sure they will change as time goes on. Admittedly there is a lot of wishy/washy or null reads. I'm still not completely sure about anyone really. [...] Xatalos - Leaning mafia On November 03 2015 08:56 Xatalos wrote:
He was also constantly engaged with the thread... Not really sure how it's comparable to you. This is a flat out false statement to justify his town read on Superbia. Superbia was NOT constantly engaged with the thread. He was absent aside from the start of the game, a 1 hour period where he made several posts, and a return post where he promised future reads. How can a player be both engaged and disconnected from the game at the same time. I question the validity of the town read because he isn't aware of Superbia's absence when several other players start to question the drop off. Furthermore, he justifies the scum read on me by stating that I am ignoring discussion topics. That makes Xatalos's mindset look even worse when you compare it to his defense of Superbia. Superbia never even comments about the nomination aside from a 1-liner after the fact that he has never elaborated on. I shared my suspicions on both Superbia and Xatalos during the nomination phase and my satisfaction with both HTS and rayn as nominations. It seems like Xatalos generated his reads a few hours into the game and hasn't re-evaluated based on the events of the thread, which I view as a scum trait. Superbia - Weakly leaning town Superbia + Xatalos doesn't stand out as teammates and I think Xat looks worse between the two. That's probably the biggest reason that I have him slightly townier than NULL. If I re-evaluated my read on Xata, I'd probably need to do the same here. On November 02 2015 20:43 Superbia wrote:
I usually start off with lots of big town-reads, not sure where the rest of town is this game lol. This post felt genuine. He had no input regarding nominations. I won't necessarily interpret this as spy motivated since he has essentially been absent from the thread, rather than lurking. On November 02 2015 20:41 Superbia wrote:
Xat's initial post set me off. Saying something like "this is a nightmare for scum" has two results
1. It distances you from "scum".
2. It downplays scum.
1. Is NAI. 2 is super weird from a town perspective, and leans me more towards mafia. I feel like if you were town and believed this you would've focused on the strength of town, rather than the weakness of mafia, and as a result, would've said something along the lines of "mafia gonna get #rekt #noqt" (or something less trolly). Regardless I feel like commenting on how "weak" mafia is is mafia indicative as it sets up for a lax game.
Now I already had a very real suspicion that you knew that this set up is not a "nightmare" for scum, as you have played resistance(/avalon) before (noted by you correctly associating my merlin comment with avalon). So that double begs the question why you felt the need to point out that mafia was "weak". I felt this post was exaggerated. He suggests that Xat is pushing a mafia agenda with the nightmare for scum post in order to catch town off guard. I simply don't think a mafia Xat is lookin that far ahead. If anything, I'd say reason 1 makes more sense. Trying to interpret what a town Xat would enter the game as is a complete guessing game so I felt he was really stretching his read here.
AT THAT TIME, he mentioned they couldn't possibly stand out as teammates, but both have one major thing in common - the reads on each other were a stretch which is common(ish) when mafia need to discredit each other. From the first failed mission I am 99.9% Xatalos is the saboteur, and the above plus sicklucker's points on Superbia (prior to the fully afk) lurky game make this combination a bit more likely. Again, let me remind everyone SUPERBIA HAD JACK ALL ON NOMS Day 1. From a mafia mindset he might not have wanted to give anyone away! Thoughts? Kita, Kita, Kita, where are you...
The reads on each other being a stretch isn't common among mafia, it's common across the entire game. It's part of mafia to interpret a lot of things the wrong way. Often unintentionally so it's just as likely for a townie to do.
And I see no reason why you would discredit your teammate first when you start in a game like this where you want anyone on the team who is a spy to enter a mission.
Your arguments aren't particularly convincing.
|
On November 12 2015 06:22 Artanis[Xp] wrote:
So after hard scumreading both me and hts for the better part of the game, rels decides I am confirmed mafia and HtS is confirmed town in the event of a fail as soon as he comes back to the thread, with me being in all of his potential teams.
Why does anyone consider him town again?
THIS SO MUCH.
|
Xatalos/Rels/Vivax everyone
If I'm wrong on Vivax, then it's Kita.
99.9% sure on Xatalos
99.9% sure on Rels
At least 75% sure on Vivax
#youhearditherefirst
#postgamecred
#itsnotover
#nevergiveup
|
On November 12 2015 06:44 Artanis[Xp] wrote:
So anyway, the fact that rels is already trying to throw shit on me before the mission failed makes me pretty sure he's scum. Looking at potential partners, I actually don't think shockeyy's scum. Two reasons:
A) he really hasn't been playing to any kind of wincon and in the end I have to admit it probably means he's town.
B) I don't think mafia rels would be the first to risk townreading shockeyy whom looked really bad.
As for HtS, I actually think she might be town. The way she keeps on trucking and focuses on solving the game even in the face of being nearly universally townread makes me eerie.
Which means there must be a scum in kita/vivax too since scum xata would never nominate scum sl with him and rayn is never scum this game. Gonna have to focus on that later.
So it looks like we are on nearly the same page, although you think I must be universally scumread, not townread lol.
What do you think about the interactions between Kita/(then) Superbia/and Xatalos day 1?
Points against and/or of discussion on Superbia
- lurky mafia meta
- a bit of a stretch read against Xatalos
- no input on any of the nominations day 1
Thoughts?
|
So in your opinion two spies voted no on the sabotaged wagon?
Are you sure you know how resistance works, HTS?
|
Like there's a super good reason why a rayn you are townreading 100 % only puts people on his wagon who voted no to the failed wagon.
|
And again for anyone who is STILL inclined to think rayn was mafia, here's some news for you....
rayn was not mafia.
His overall behaviour this game is not alignment indicative. He shitfights commonly as town.
His nitpickiness/scumhunting method he's had this game was pretty towny.
I tried to explain this to Shockey.
Coagulation I look forward to your thoughts (or seeing as you are American, waking up to reading them).
|
On November 12 2015 07:23 Vivax wrote:
Like there's a super good reason why a rayn you are townreading 100 % only puts people on his wagon who voted no to the failed wagon.
You're referring to the team he picked just now, right?
Assuming you are:
I'll tell you the same thing I told at least three other people earlier in the game, disassociation. Xatalos was picked with rayn and sicklucker to mission.
Do you realllllllyyyyyy think Xatalos is going to vote no?
It is also not hard to figure where people stood on reads with people. If you know where enough people are going to place their votes on a flawed wagon you can separate ahead of time.
Let's recap:
sicklucker went into mission as the weakest townread, and rayn pushed SL at the end on account of his own read, but more critically, the people he perceived as being mafia at the time (IIRC myself, superbia, rels) opposing his inclusion and wanting Artanis.
As I said, if I'm wrong on you for whatever reason, it's Kita.
Even then the game is nearly solved. I am very confident on Rels/Xatalos as the first two, and very confident on the following as town: rayn (Coag)/myself/Shockey/Artanis/sicklucker.
Any combination of the above 4-5 is fine by me over the final three missions.
One of the things I am going to do before/on my flight tomorrow is go through Kita's filter and tinfoil the shit out of it.
|
On November 10 2015 06:46 Vivax wrote:I think rayn and shockey are both town. Xata and SL must not be on the mission. That's good so far, they both look craptastic. I'm not sure who of them more with my current knowledge. I just noticed SL posting that if I don't rat him out we can be friends, something an actual mafioso would probably say. Show nested quote +On November 10 2015 05:53 Rels wrote:
rayn though: please consider switching Superbia to shockey unless Vivax amazes everybody. He's the only NO voter I'm doubtful about. Rels looks good too just for saying this cause knowing I'm town and thinking Shockey is too, I just see no point for a spy to tell rayn to swap out a town for another town (unless speculative wifom planting which is something I don't see here). I'm vigilant about kita as he's one of the people I can get really paranoid about. I have a history of reading him correctly too so until I get to do that and given that his first posts in the game didn't really scream town to me, I'd prefer to not have him on a mission for now. I'd be fine with rayn/me/shockey/Rels
Vivax
Let's say I'm wrong on you.
For your filter, these are your current reads.
You don't like Xata or sicklucker. Fine. What do you make of the first failed mission as both were on it?
Do you have an updated read on Kita?
At this stage, based on the information already out (or seeing as it's 20m prior to mission flip if you only see this after the flip) who are your scumteam?
|
Kita, do you have updated reads? I realise you are 5-6h behind me, but hopefully I will wake up to them tomorrow <3
|
I make of the first failed mission that I don't want both of Xata/SL on a mission, and that I'm fine with a team of people who voted no on that mission.
We're heading there. I already said I'd look at kita if the mission failed cause I don't trust him for pushing my slot and something about his first post bothering me.
|
On November 12 2015 07:49 Vivax wrote:
I make of the first failed mission that I don't want both of Xata/SL on a mission, and that I'm fine with a team of people who voted no on that mission.
We're heading there. I already said I'd look at kita if the mission failed cause I don't trust him for pushing my slot and something about his first post bothering me.
Any thoughts on Artanis? Not really any comment on him in your filter.
|
End of Day 2
13 January, 2371. USS Java.
Captain Pienaar flicked through the intelligence reports. It was mostly dull. Routine fleet movements near the de-militarised zone. Civil disturbances in the Federation colonies on the Cardassian border.
A beep from his door roused him from his papers. His young conn officer walked in.
"Sir, we just got news from Earth. It looks like Hernandez won the election."
Pienaar smiled. He had always disliked Hernandez's Vulcan opponent, L'Naar. L'Naar had been the one most vocally opposed to the Cardassian treaty - a treaty Pienaar was sure would bring some much needed stability to the Alpha Quadrant.
----------
15 January, 2371. Section 31 HQ. Location Unknown.
Nobody spoke. The de-brief on the Romulan operation had ended, and everyone was mostly sat around. Some of the operatives were staring into space. Others were pretending to read data slates.
The mission to Remus had been a disaster, although it hadn't seemed like it at first. The operatives had managed to get past most of the security unharmed, and had even managed to reach the scientist they were after, only to find him dead - poisoned by the Romulans some hours before the operatives had arrive.
The Director cleared his throat. His voice didn't waiver as he spoke.
"Last week, one of our contacts in the Obsidian Order sent me a most interesting message. They found a stowaway changeling on one of the ships heading for Federation Space. After a few days of ... intense interrogation, they learned that the Changeling had been running interference for another cell, who were trying to replace this man."
The screen at the back of the room filled with the face of a Hispanic-looking human.
"This is the new President-elect of the Federation, Julian Hernandez. If the Founders manage to replace him, it'll be almost impossible to prove it. Presidential security is so tight, we'll never get near him."
The Director paused, and looked around the room. For the first time, he saw fear and panic in the eyes of his Operatives. He glared back at them.
"We have to stop this plot. Fortunately, we know that it will almost certainly happen while the President is touring the Solar System, after his inauguration. There's a patch of space just past Saturn where sensors always jam. I think that's when the infil will happen. Get there, and stop it."
!!! MISSION FAILED !!!
1 Sabotage action detected.
Day 3
ShoCkeyy's Nomination Phase
Phase will end in at 23:00 GMT (+00:00) on 12 November 2015.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
EPT![[image loading]](http://i.imgur.com/1NBguEX.jpg?1)
