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On November 10 2015 23:06 Artanis[Xp] wrote:
I'm actually not that sure on you anymore because as I mentioned earlier for some reason I had 3 scumreads outside the initial 3 and I think HtS is very likely scum. Shockeyy also seems likely to be scum, though his brash I don't really care about anything attitude does make me wonder.
[...]
Regarding the vote: I'm toying with the idea of voting yay for it. Reasons being that so many people already indicated they may vote yay that if there's a scum on the mission, it's probably going to get the go ahead anyway and the only chance it doesn't get accepted is if it's actually pure.
Here Arta:
- says he's not suspicious of me anymore
- says he will vote YES
But in the end, after mostly everyone says they will vote YES, he ends up voting NO. Why ? It's not logical from his reads.
One explication could be that he's scum, he knows the team is infected, and he wanted to be on the right side of the votes for towncred. For the Xata / rayn / SL team he had to vote YES 'cause it wasn't obvious if it was going to pass or not without his vote; for this team, he could vote NO, have the team go and get the town cred.
I'm still going with the theory that the team is infiltrated, since if it's clean we won anyway.
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So the team is either:
Arta / rayn / XXX (not HTS, they're never scums together)
or Arta / Xata / Vivax (or Kita)
I think it makes HTS town actually whatever the case is actually ... at least if the team fails.
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I suppose Arta / rayn / Xata makes some sense too. The relations between the three are super weird:
- Xata and Arta hard townreads each other
- Arta and rayn are super buddies that don't re evaluate on each other
- Arta and Xata have very little interaction.
So the plan would be to put two scums in the first team, so one of them exits with the universal townread, can make the second team fail; and now the plan is to put the third scum in the third team.
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Will have to reread Kita in case of failure, but assuming it confirms my townread on him, I think the team have to be one of this:
Arta / rayn / Vivax
Arta / rayn / Xata
Arta / Xata / Vivax
Basically, just don't ever pick those four players and we're OK.
I'm too lazy to do any reread right now since we could also have won already p: will do that tomorrow. See you later folks for the result!
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After discussion between myself and Tictock in the Host QT, and also consultation with Blazinghand, I have decided to issue a second warning to raynpelikoneet for this post. The effect of a second warning (the first warning being here) is a modkill/auto-replace, which is effective immediately.
I will begin searching for a replacement immediately. Until one is found, raynpelikoneet's slot will be eligible to go on missions, and will deemed to vote YES on all proposed missions. If his slot has the spy alignment, it will be deemed to attempt to sabotage any mission on which it is placed. His slot will be skipped for the purpose of team submission.
The OP for this game makes clear that all players are obliged to be civil and corteous to each other. The hosts recognise that Mafia/Resistance can give rise to strong emotions. However, there is a large and important difference between criticising someone's play or their decision making, and personal attacks designed only to belittle or demean. The former happens all the time, but the second will not be tolerated.
If anyone has any concerns about this action, or any further rules questions arising please contact me immediately, copying Tictock and Blazinghand.
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Do you really think I can be spy with Xata, Rels? After what superbia did to him right at the start of D1?
For now we can just chill and wait for the outcome. All this speculation pre-result is even too tinfoil for me.
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On November 12 2015 02:28 Rels wrote:Show nested quote +On November 11 2015 10:13 Half the Sky wrote:
I accepted the fact that Rels could be town after a fresh (and attempt at being unbiased after seeing hsi filter), but upon seeing these votes, I very well could have been wrong - the fact that Artanis voted this team down and Rels upvoted it....IDK. My first thought - if this team fails and it likely will - is that the Rels/Artanis interaction is more likely that the former of the two is more likely scum. (I'm thinking the most likely scum in this group is between Rels/Vivax.) Why am I more likely scum than Arta ?
The quote you highlighted is self-explanatory. A 7-2 vote indicates the team will fail or at the very least there is a spy on the team. Considering the state of the game it is very highly likely there is a spy. Artanis downvoting the team (aside from other things) is a massive point in his favour.
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On November 12 2015 02:34 Rels wrote:Show nested quote +On November 10 2015 23:06 Artanis[Xp] wrote:
I'm actually not that sure on you anymore because as I mentioned earlier for some reason I had 3 scumreads outside the initial 3 and I think HtS is very likely scum. Shockeyy also seems likely to be scum, though his brash I don't really care about anything attitude does make me wonder.
[...]
Regarding the vote: I'm toying with the idea of voting yay for it. Reasons being that so many people already indicated they may vote yay that if there's a scum on the mission, it's probably going to get the go ahead anyway and the only chance it doesn't get accepted is if it's actually pure. Here Arta: - says he's not suspicious of me anymore - says he will vote YES But in the end, after mostly everyone says they will vote YES, he ends up voting NO. Why ? It's not logical from his reads. One explication could be that he's scum, he knows the team is infected, and he wanted to be on the right side of the votes for towncred. For the Xata / rayn / SL team he had to vote YES 'cause it wasn't obvious if it was going to pass or not without his vote; for this team, he could vote NO, have the team go and get the town cred. I'm still going with the theory that the team is infiltrated, since if it's clean we won anyway.
"Not that sure" (what he said) and "not suspicious" (what you said) are two different things. At best, someone saying "I'm not sure on you" means they have at best a null on you.
And he said he was toying with it, not that he'd commit. Two different things. He already implied (bolded) what the count would be. If Artanis is scum it's sure not for that.
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rayn is in no way a spy. Zero.
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sicklucker, I know you are hard scumreading Kita, but you need to take a look at his interactions with Xatalos and Superbia. Here's why.
I looked at interactions between Kitaman and Superbia (now Vivax), Xatalos, and rayn, and the day 1 stuff all over again. Kita had a mafia lean on Xatalos and there was more dodgy interaction between Xatalos and Superbia which Kita pointed out.
Post #563 in light of all these and casting doubt on both Superbia and Xatalos....he's town.
sicklucker, I honestly do think that makes Kita town.
What do you think of the puzzle now if you were to look at day 1 again?
The final scumteam would put me at Rels/Xatalos/Superbia.
I need to now re-read filters, interactions, and reactions and take another look at the votes to see if this team makes sense.
I know I recall somewhere Rels had a reaction to either Kita's list or something that said along the lines of "oh yeah Xatalos did have more solid scumreads in Vanilla" or something of that sort.
That would most certainly support the Rels/Xatalos tie-in, it's just a poke that doesn't go anywhere which is mafia indicative. Nevermind it would make his questioning (IIRC it was him) of my meta argument for Xatalos being mafia more awkward considering he had agreed with Kita on a similar point.
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EBWOP - Because I fail at life.
The final scumteam would put me at Rels/Xatalos/Vivax.
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On November 12 2015 03:25 Vivax wrote:
Do you really think I can be spy with Xata, Rels? After what superbia did to him right at the start of D1?
For now we can just chill and wait for the outcome. All this speculation pre-result is even too tinfoil for me.
Kita made a good point as to why you sure could be.
On November 03 2015 00:07 kitaman27 wrote:Show nested quote +On November 02 2015 20:41 Superbia wrote:
2. It downplays scum.
2 is super weird from a town perspective, and leans me more towards mafia. Regardless I feel like commenting on how "weak" mafia is is mafia indicative as it sets up for a lax game. This seems like quite the over analysis for an intro one-liner. There doesn't have to be spy motivation in every post. Why conclude that he is somehow pushing an agenda where it benefits him to trick town into thinking the spies will get steam rolled. Show nested quote +On November 02 2015 20:41 Superbia wrote:
I feel like if you were town and believed this you would've focused on the strength of town, rather than the weakness of mafia, and as a result, would've said something along the lines of "mafia gonna get #rekt #noqt" (or something less trolly) Really a stretch here. More speculation without basis than anything.
This is where Kita was day 1. Obviously on the back on new information, and looking how he has interacted with people and THESE READS....
On November 04 2015 04:28 kitaman27 wrote:Here are my reads so far. I'm sure they will change as time goes on. Admittedly there is a lot of wishy/washy or null reads. I'm still not completely sure about anyone really. [...] Xatalos - Leaning mafia Show nested quote +On November 03 2015 08:56 Xatalos wrote:
He was also constantly engaged with the thread... Not really sure how it's comparable to you. This is a flat out false statement to justify his town read on Superbia. Superbia was NOT constantly engaged with the thread. He was absent aside from the start of the game, a 1 hour period where he made several posts, and a return post where he promised future reads. How can a player be both engaged and disconnected from the game at the same time. I question the validity of the town read because he isn't aware of Superbia's absence when several other players start to question the drop off. Furthermore, he justifies the scum read on me by stating that I am ignoring discussion topics. That makes Xatalos's mindset look even worse when you compare it to his defense of Superbia. Superbia never even comments about the nomination aside from a 1-liner after the fact that he has never elaborated on. I shared my suspicions on both Superbia and Xatalos during the nomination phase and my satisfaction with both HTS and rayn as nominations. It seems like Xatalos generated his reads a few hours into the game and hasn't re-evaluated based on the events of the thread, which I view as a scum trait. Superbia - Weakly leaning town Superbia + Xatalos doesn't stand out as teammates and I think Xat looks worse between the two. That's probably the biggest reason that I have him slightly townier than NULL. If I re-evaluated my read on Xata, I'd probably need to do the same here. Show nested quote +On November 02 2015 20:43 Superbia wrote:
I usually start off with lots of big town-reads, not sure where the rest of town is this game lol. This post felt genuine. He had no input regarding nominations. I won't necessarily interpret this as spy motivated since he has essentially been absent from the thread, rather than lurking. Show nested quote +On November 02 2015 20:41 Superbia wrote:
Xat's initial post set me off. Saying something like "this is a nightmare for scum" has two results
1. It distances you from "scum".
2. It downplays scum.
1. Is NAI. 2 is super weird from a town perspective, and leans me more towards mafia. I feel like if you were town and believed this you would've focused on the strength of town, rather than the weakness of mafia, and as a result, would've said something along the lines of "mafia gonna get #rekt #noqt" (or something less trolly). Regardless I feel like commenting on how "weak" mafia is is mafia indicative as it sets up for a lax game.
Now I already had a very real suspicion that you knew that this set up is not a "nightmare" for scum, as you have played resistance(/avalon) before (noted by you correctly associating my merlin comment with avalon). So that double begs the question why you felt the need to point out that mafia was "weak". I felt this post was exaggerated. He suggests that Xat is pushing a mafia agenda with the nightmare for scum post in order to catch town off guard. I simply don't think a mafia Xat is looking that far ahead. If anything, I'd say reason 1 makes more sense. Trying to interpret what a town Xat would enter the game as is a complete guessing game so I felt he was really stretching his read here.
AT THAT TIME, he mentioned they couldn't possibly stand out as teammates, but both have one major thing in common - the reads on each other were a stretch which is common(ish) when mafia need to discredit each other.
From the first failed mission I am 99.9% Xatalos is the saboteur, and the above plus sicklucker's points on Superbia (prior to the fully afk) lurky game make this combination a bit more likely. Again, let me remind everyone SUPERBIA HAD JACK ALL ON NOMS Day 1.
From a mafia mindset he might not have wanted to give anyone away! Thoughts?
Kita, Kita, Kita, where are you...
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Dinner then dota, then more of this...
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kitaman27
United States9244 Posts
On November 12 2015 03:56 Half the Sky wrote:
AT THAT TIME, he mentioned they couldn't possibly stand out as teammates, but both have one major thing in common - the reads on each other were a stretch which is common(ish) when mafia need to discredit each other.
From the first failed mission I am 99.9% Xatalos is the saboteur, and the above plus sicklucker's points on Superbia (prior to the fully afk) lurky game make this combination a bit more likely. Again, let me remind everyone SUPERBIA HAD JACK ALL ON NOMS Day 1.
From a mafia mindset he might not have wanted to give anyone away! Thoughts?
Kita, Kita, Kita, where are you...
When you were on the fence with the day one team between Xata and Super, Xata seemed pretty interested in getting himself included. He didn't discredit the super team completely, but he showed the preference towards being the one you chose. If they were buddies, it wouldn't really matter much which of the two was picked. I suppose he could be trying to emulate how a town player would think there.
Super voting no on the rayn/xata/SL team suggests they aren't buddies, but I guess one of the spies voted no d1 if today fails, unless rayn is the bad guy.
I'll have to do a re-read on super/vivax and Rels if the game isn't over in a couple hours.
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Please welcome Coagulation, who is replacing Rayn.
Sincere thanks to Coag for stepping in.
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kitaman27
United States9244 Posts
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On November 12 2015 02:30 Rels wrote:Xata you still didn't answer this: Show nested quote +On November 11 2015 01:56 Rels wrote:On November 10 2015 23:39 Xatalos wrote:On November 10 2015 22:49 Rels wrote:
Xata, why are you suspicious of me ?
Why are you suspicious of kita ? The NO votes look good for you two, it's just not on the level of a confident townread. Kita for being so vague and non-committal throughout the game, and you because your recent scumgames looked pretty similar to this game too (very active and engaged..). Now that I think about it, though, scum HTS would have had no good reason to put scum Kita into the first team.... So that gives kita a bit more credibility at least. So is kita scum or not ? If yes can you expand on him being vague ? Your reason for scumreading me are bad. Is that it ?
Well, it's more PoE than anything really. Meaning that I thought rayn and Superbia looked better than you two. I didn't even call you two scum there 
Vague as in being evasive about his own reads and mostly asking questions / taking a pretty neutral stance on things.
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Oh.... Welcome Coag.
I guess this makes rayn more likely town again, even if the reason is silly (he wouldn't probably feel the need to rage risking a modkill or something as scum here......).
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EPT
