EPTNewbie Mini Mafia LX - Page 34
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LightningStrike
United States14276 Posts
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LightningStrike
United States14276 Posts
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Tubesock
United States2726 Posts
On January 08 2015 22:41 rsoultin wrote: + Show Spoiler + That is not a bad post there, Tube. Trfel was reluctant on all the wagons, but didn't have a better option to present the thread Day 1. I still think he could have been targeted as a possible role...but I'm not nearly as comfortable with a Shining lynch as I was earlier because his play has improved significantly, despite the lying at EoD. Also @Shining...I'm not really ruling out anyone on being possible scum based on a flip right now. I'm just saying I probably would automatically look to LS if you flip scum. Not that I think you flipping town clears him. His play troubles me. The main reason I'm not 100% sold on him being scum is his scum game (if this is a scum game for him) has gotten much less timid since the last time when I pushed his lynch. Tube...you're talking about why you think Trfel was killed, suggesting that LS and to a lesser extent Shining probably aren't scum, but you haven't said anything about who you think is scum. Do you have anyone in mind? That's the problem I'm having. I am thinking about 4 suspects but it's all very weak. I am also reluctant to just go jihad again on bad foundations and that last post is the foundation. I feel really strong about it, but I felt stronger about WarWaffle than I have ever (In my massive 3 case career in mafia). | ||
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Tubesock
United States2726 Posts
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Tubesock
United States2726 Posts
I meant I feel really strong about my last big post towning The Shining and LightningStrike. I felt stronger about my case on WarWaffle though and felt that was the strongest case I've ever cased. Which would be strongest of 3 hahaha | ||
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-Celestial-
United Kingdom3867 Posts
On January 08 2015 09:52 The Shining wrote: Celestial throwing away that vote on JarJar is really suspicious. That and the very early big post by Celestial that gave out a bunch of free town reads, mine included, a post that wasn't really warranted at the time. As has been mentioned before, Mafia likes to give out free town reads and hide in big posts. They also like to make excuses, which Celestial has done right as EoN and beginning of Day 2 started. Nice misrepresentation of my post you got there. If you actually look back to my first set of reads I was saying: Leaning town: Shining, ExO_ and Trfel. Suspicious of scum: rsoultin, jarjar, WW, Tube. Null: Pretty much everyone else largely due to lack of posts. Of course that's changed since then but..."Bunch of free town reads" indeed...makes me wonder why you're being so quick to actually LIE about what I posted. Pretty scummy behaviour. On January 08 2015 12:26 LightningStrike wrote: I don't like Celestial not liking the case on Shining from you I did like the case on Shining, BUT because rsoultin wasn't going for it in votes I got the feeling that she just wasn't convinced by her own case. Which in retrospect is pretty strange, but we've already discussed it endlessly by this point. That being said between rsoultin's case and my own feelings about The Shining I'm really not feeling good about him; especially since he was just trying to misrepresent my original set of reads just now. On January 08 2015 14:27 ExO_ wrote: Then there's Celestial. I think I'm starting to scum read him as well. I didn't like that he just parked his vote on jarjar. I also don't like how he seems to be going whichever way the wind blows. He's easily swayed with whoever is posting at the time. For example he hopped right on the LS train with me, then when I was gone for a while he backed off it, only to start agreeing with me more when I got back in the thread. Another example is he did a bit of an OMGUS on rsoultin after day 1, but immediately said he was willing to give he the benefit of the doubt. That's scum behavior in my mind. Scum read. If you actually check my posts you'd see I was already calling LS out with my original set of reads BEFORE you posted something to really set me off on that path; so no, it wasn't just you. Then I filter-dived for my second set of reads to confirm stuff before voting him; which was a very long time after you posted. But when LS demonstrated that he's played exactly this way before that set some doubt there, so getting off him was absolutely nothing to do with you. And note that I didn't switch back suspicions to LS because of you. Again, check my posts. I questioned you for your opinion on LS and then when LS decided to throw out a vague, apparently panicky, claim THAT is what made me suspicious of him again. Which makes me question precisely why you're lying about the progression of events here. My D1 issue with rsoultin is that having looked back over it her vote does not sit at all with her argument. Which I really, really don't like; I feel that if you believe that strongly you should vote and hope others follow. That being said I'm not entirely sure that makes rsoultin scum. On January 08 2015 14:35 Silverarte wrote: Celestial: You're been prolific in your posting, and it's led me to think town for you at first. The throwing away of your vote (as you put it) still puts a redmark on you to watch. I think my biggest fret is the free town passes early, straight to the vote...and then I'm not seeing much here about trying to contribute for the town and it feels floaty about-ish. Is Rsoultin your biggest target right now? Why? No. My issue with rsoultin I mentioned above. I'm just kind of floating on her. Sometimes I get a strong scum feel others I feel she's genuinely town. To be honest my biggest target right now would probably be Shining. Between what Shining posted yesterday, coupled with the fact that he's so quick to misrepresent what I actually said and twist it like that (detailed above)...that feels very, very wrong to me. Could just be a newbie error but I don't get that feeling. Anyway I'm going to hold off a little before I vote. Frankly from the early leaders I don't think BOTH of LS and Shining are scum unless they're bussing each other in the hope of one surviving. And I'm bouncing between town and scum on rsoultin, the posting seems genuine but the actions make me uncomfortable and I really don't like it when what people say doesn't really match up with what they do. Right now I'm inclined to go with Shining. I think I covered everything here. I'm still really ill but I'll try and get on again later to address anything that pops up. | ||
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-Celestial-
United Kingdom3867 Posts
LightningStrike just posted fluff and comments on other people's posts so far. Not really sure what to make of that honestly. I didn't like the fact he was just trying to avoid content. Then he mentioned that he was like this in other games which I took at face value until YOU posted your observations which I found compelling. Later on LS posted previous games for review, which drew me off him and it wasn't until he posted a claim (which I found to be an over-the-top panicked reaction to nothing at all) that I became incredibly suspicious again. | ||
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-Celestial-
United Kingdom3867 Posts
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Tubesock
United States2726 Posts
Did you read my Night Kill post yet? Thoughts? | ||
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-Celestial-
United Kingdom3867 Posts
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Tubesock
United States2726 Posts
On January 08 2015 23:31 -Celestial- wrote: Which one? That big long post you made predicting which kill? Yes. | ||
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Tubesock
United States2726 Posts
+ Show Spoiler + On January 08 2015 21:55 Tubesock wrote: Can't sleep. EoD timing for me is 3pm so I think I'll be awake around 10 or 11. I'd like to talk about the possible nk's targets. I don't understand nk picks so, I really want feedback on my reasoning. If I were scum, I think I'd kill the biggest threat. This would be either the best players (hardest to lynch) or who are on the right track. -Celestial- is universally townread at least till the lynch. Probably a doc save. Bad choice. The next towniest people I think are including their targets: 2. ExO_ His only real scumread was LightningStrike and to a lessor extent WarWaffle. 3. Rsoultin Scumming The Shining and I think LightningStrike, also fine with killing Warwaffle 4. Half The Sky Scumming LightingStrike and The Shining 5. Tubesock murdered Warwaffle and voiced next targets as JarJar, The Shining, and LightningStrike 6. Trfel no targets. sheep voted The Shining. Repeatedly defended LS and The Shining. The rest of you are either lynch targets or lurkers. In a world where mafia picks the nk based on reputation of play (assuming -Celestial- would get the save), I have a hard time believing that Rsoultin or Half The Sky live. HTS in Carol was amazing. She had 3 jailkeeper (I think that's the generic term for her role) saves, then layed a trap, hard claimed, and then within seconds it seemed mafia conceded. It was BEAUTIFUL. Rsoultin had gorgeous cases, AND a great thread presence with influence. Her reads were not 100% correct but she had a very strong role in winning that game. Trfel helped win the game because he was able to cop check a towny and get it out before he was killed n2 and he had a good case on our first mafia kill that tipped the scales for the lynch. Of those three nk targets (Rsoultin, HTS, Trfel) Rsoultin and HTS are strong towns in this game. Trfel hasn't really done much. He is a basic lurker. I don't think he'd be a threat. Unless The Shining and LightningStrike are town. Every single majority read towny is either building cases or scumming hard The Shining and LightningStrike. Those two are buried. They will flip town. Which means get rid of the guy who could stop those miss lynches. Which goes back to Trfel. I'm getting the impression that Trfel basically townreads TheWarWaffle, LightningStrike, and The Shining. He soft defends them but also talks about how he hasn't really read the thread, is not super confident in reads etc. He's not going to waste his vote so he knows he needs to be on a legitimate wagon (unlike Gumdrops on ExO_ for instance). Presumably, he sheeps his strongest townreads Rsoutlin and Half the Sky. Moral of the story, if The Shining or LightningStrike are mafia, then one of Rsoultin, Half The Sky, or ExO_ would be dead. I don't see a world where they would nk Trfel. My bad play murdered a claimed role so I think it would be stupid to nk me. And for the love of God, when I ask you what you think about my case/thoughts be more forceful on why I'm wrong. We fucking killed a blue. The only person who really articulated it being bad was Trfel. No one on WarWaffle moved. Even after the claim, people still said it was a probable fake claim. WarWaffles play was so scummy most of you disregarded his claim. None of you thought the lynch was bad enough to do a yelling all caps post telling us we are idiots for lynching a town/blue. | ||
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-Celestial-
United Kingdom3867 Posts
These are just my first impressions incidentally. If I have any more thoughts on the NK situation I'll post them later. The big talkers are potential doc saves so that makes them less likely to be targeted I reckon. Trfel was fairly quiet and hasn't put out a huge amount to go on. But he DID say that was going to be the case at first. Looking back he said: Oh, and a pregame excuse. Several days from now I will be moving back to school, so I will be less active for a while then. Sorry for the inconvenience. He's not been active in this game much but I'll take your word for it that he's been a good player previously. It seems to me out of the three you highlighted that he's been the quietest, making doc save less likely. I think the soft defend excuse against not killing Trfel of Shining and LS doesn't really add up. Both of LS and Shining are under intense pressure, killing Trfel and revealing him as town weakens cases against both of them precisely because of the "I don't think they're mafia" and him turning up dead. "Why would they kill someone defending them?" is the logic and it makes sense on the surface. But since he's relatively inactive he's not going to be much help actively defending them D2, assuming his activity stays the same. If Shining or LS were looking to sow a seed of doubt in the cases against them, a kill of a person who was supporting them but was relatively inactive and so is unlikely to be a huge amount of help in shifting accusations seems to be the way to go. Because it outs a supporter as a townie whilst not losing too much because he's inactive. Whilst simultaneously taking out a good player by reputation based on what you just said about his play in Carol. To me the real question is which of LS and Shining is the scum. Or are they both and bussing each other in the hopes that one will survive? | ||
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Tubesock
United States2726 Posts
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Tubesock
United States2726 Posts
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Half the Sky
Germany9029 Posts
On January 08 2015 14:04 jarjarbinks wrote: To HTS on LS I honestly sympathized with LS on day 1. It seemed like people were being overaggressive with him. I wanted to focus my suspicions elsewhere since it seemed he was definitely some peoples #1 scummer. So what if he couldn't overanalyze other people and have a decent original scumread? Neither did I, gum, waffle, or silver. What did the scumreads give us day 1? A lot of anger and a dead veteran. Granted you can go back later and look at day 1 posts, but still. That's not entirely accurate there. You, Gum, and Silver didn't have decent original scumreads as you said, but Waffle actually did (he scumread both Silverarte and Tube), Tubesock tunnelled him for it after WW already had votes for lurking from Ras and Silver. The veteran did not die because he underanalysed people. A scum behaviour would be a consistent lack of original content, and a town behaviour of making their reads clear helps town form a general opinion on who is scum and who is not. Town tend to want to put their opinions out there and share the information and keep that constructive discussion going. However there are enough new players we have to keep asking questions between new player behaviour and scum behaviour. Also there is more than one way to scumhunt, but barring an outright scumslip, most methods require some form of analysis. No, LS did not have good read development D1, but I tried to look as closely as I could to his other games, and it's a reason I told ExO at the time he wasn't a good D1 lynch, though I had concerns on his behaviour. Now seeing his actions post-lynch gives more weight to the belief that he is scum. Even Shining pointed out he blatantly avoided one of my questions. | ||
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Half the Sky
Germany9029 Posts
On January 08 2015 15:12 The Shining wrote: HTS, to answer you, I do not know Silverarte, unless she goes by another name that I'm unaware of. The only people that I know I've played with before are Jar Jar, RSoultin and ExO. As for why I gave Silver a town read, I looked through her filter as I was doing my vote analysis. It came down to her and LS. Her posts up until now, although not the highest number, have all done a good job of showing she's reading the thread when she can and answering questions and suspicions directed towards her pretty well, when possible. As opposed to LS, who I've made my case against already. I don't think the mafia is dumb enough to have 2 members on the main wagon so I had to choose between the two and Silver leans slightly more towards Town. Alright, I stand corrected on you knowing Silver. I was under the general impression a number of you (of whom Rasputin was in that group) knew each other, and I couldn't quite place who played with whom on that site, but I digress. Focusing on the bolded part, I see where you are coming from. I see part of it is from the vote analysis, but as for Silver herself, answering questions, depending on context, and how they are answered, could be of any alignment, however, she is certainly not dodging them, the responses look thought out without being drawn out, so that's obviously a good sign. Postcount itself is generally not alignment indicative either, as I've played games with some very good low-post, high-content people, LoneMeow being a very good example of putting all his scumreads/analysis on one post. She appears to be short on time for this game, and I see she is doing the same. | ||
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LightningStrike
United States14276 Posts
On January 09 2015 01:41 Half the Sky wrote: That's not entirely accurate there. You, Gum, and Silver didn't have decent original scumreads as you said, but Waffle actually did (he scumread both Silverarte and Tube), Tubesock tunnelled him for it after WW already had votes for lurking from Ras and Silver. The veteran did not die because he underanalysed people. A scum behaviour would be a consistent lack of original content, and a town behaviour of making their reads clear helps town form a general opinion on who is scum and who is not. Town tend to want to put their opinions out there and share the information and keep that constructive discussion going. However there are enough new players we have to keep asking questions between new player behaviour and scum behaviour. Also there is more than one way to scumhunt, but barring an outright scumslip, most methods require some form of analysis. No, LS did not have good read development D1, but I tried to look as closely as I could to his other games, and it's a reason I told ExO at the time he wasn't a good D1 lynch, though I had concerns on his behaviour. Now seeing his actions post-lynch gives more weight to the belief that he is scum. Even Shining pointed out he blatantly avoided one of my questions. What question did I miss from you because I thought I answered all of your questions? | ||
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LightningStrike
United States14276 Posts
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ExO_
United States2316 Posts
On January 08 2015 23:07 -Celestial- wrote: If you actually check my posts you'd see I was already calling LS out with my original set of reads BEFORE you posted something to really set me off on that path; so no, it wasn't just you. You are lying and I can prove it. On January 06 2015 01:32 -Celestial- wrote: + Show Spoiler + LightningStrike just posted fluff and comments on other people's posts so far. Not really sure what to make of that honestly.... --- ...Edit: LS posted as I was writing this. Last post was pretty good in my opinion, some credit there. Still don't want to make a call on him though. Neutral for now. Before my post, this is the only mention you made to lightning strike. And even though you say he posts fluff, in that same post you go on to say his last post was good and he gets some credit. The next time you mention LS, is quoting and agreeing with me. On January 08 2015 23:07 -Celestial- wrote: + Show Spoiler + Then I filter-dived for my second set of reads to confirm stuff before voting him; which was a very long time after you posted. But when LS demonstrated that he's played exactly this way before that set some doubt there, so getting off him was absolutely nothing to do with you. And note that I didn't switch back suspicions to LS because of you. Again, check my posts. I questioned you for your opinion on LS and then when LS decided to throw out a vague, apparently panicky, claim THAT is what made me suspicious of him again. Oh really? On January 07 2015 01:43 -Celestial- wrote: + Show Spoiler + Ok I've taken the time myself to read over the evidence that LS presented and...actually its pretty convincing. Although I think meta reads, especially based on just one game, can easily be manipulated he IS playing this very similar to the way he has in the past and it IS from three separate games so...yeah well done there. I can't in good faith vote LS anymore. His playstyle is just too consistent between townie games there and it has severely shaken my confidence on it. I don't really know playstyles very well of course but those links were fairly convincing. Of course LS could be deliberately selecting evidence but it doesn't feel like that, it feels more like a genuine attempt at convincing. Not a D1 lynch for me anymore. At this point in time I had been gone from the thread for a while. And thus the discussion moved away from LS for a while. As does your vote, and your vocal suspicions. Next comes: On January 07 2015 04:50 -Celestial- wrote: + Show Spoiler + @ExO_: What are your thoughts on LS (and others) pointing out he's played exactly the same way when he's been town on several previous occasions? I've been somewhat persuaded by that enough to conclude that for now I don't think he's the best D1 lynch. I mean I'm still not won over to make him town, but ideally we're looking for a D1 mafia lynch and I don't think he's the one to guarantee it You finally go back on to LS with: On January 07 2015 05:36 -Celestial- wrote: + Show Spoiler + Had dinner. Going off to do some other things now but before I do I have to say that claiming like that brings my sights right back onto you, LS. Nobody actually asked for a claim off you and its not like you were under a huge amount of pressure. ExO was the only one really on you and you'd convinced me to give you the benefit of the doubt for a while with your past citations. But a softclaim like that just a few hours before the deadline when nobody is actually pushing you makes it look as if you're panicking honestly. And that makes me incredibly suspicious once more Coincidentally guess what I posted just 6 posts and 12 minutes before the above quoted post:: On January 07 2015 05:24 ExO_ wrote: + Show Spoiler + On January 07 2015 05:13 Half the Sky wrote: ExO, there is. In Student Mafia IV (my own first game), he was a mafia goon. And he showed in his posts that he had more to hide in that game. At least in comparison I think. Game: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/471489-student-mafia-iv-new-newish-players-welcome LS filter: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/471489-student-mafia-iv-new-newish-players-welcome?user=LightningStrike I'll admit he had more initial scum reads at first. But then, there's this his first big "read" post: On November 28 2014 12:56 LightningStrike wrote: + Show Spoiler + Okay since now that my cousin and his wife and son have left I can finally give you guys my current reads for the time being. Breshke: Town since he displaying the same kind of approach for today as he did in my last game when he was town. Batsnacks: Null leaning town since he is acting close to the same way he did last game with me when he was a doctor but he been dodging questions from Oatsmaster and Half the Sky. Damndred: Null leaning town since he was one of the major pushers for the lynching of DSIM without much of a good reason and been defending Batsnacks actions but at the same time he been giving losts of questions although DSIM didn't respond well to the questions. Half the Sky: Town since he been giving good reasonings for his reads throughout the game although I don't like his case for Batsnacks being scum based on my own experience playing with Batsnacks in my last game. sicklucker: Town because his posting style had pretty much stayed the same from the last game I played with him although he did looked very scummy in that game but he was just a Vanilla town and since our power roles had been lynched/killed I having a safe bet that sicklucker is town. meatpudding: Null leaning town he had some decent questions after being gone for a while and now he claiming to have no power at his house it could be a scum move because one of the scums in my last game tried to pull that move but failed so perhaps meatpudding could scum. alakaslam: null leaning scum since he not posted much of his reads but he also admitted to notread much of the thread during the time of us lynching DSIM but I need to see more posts of his though since he said he had to go earlier in the thread to confirm my suspicions. Oatsmasters: Town since he been asking lots of questions to everyone and been trying to lead the discussion when he can which isn't a trait a scum member would do. kushm4sta: Null leaning scum since he not been contributing a lot like his last scum game which was my last although he did give a couple questions to people he also didn't post much so I need to wait for him to post more so I can get a better read on him rsoultin: Null leaning town since he trying to ask some questions and responding to questions he been asked by others although he did convence me to lynch DSIM that is haunting me because of my last game experience :| Look Familiar? HTS and I have a discussion about LS, and then you went back on him. So at the very least, you are lying about suspecting LS before I posted. You pushed suspicion onto the WW train while carefully parking your vote on jarjar. You have been careful this game and generally agreeable. But if there's one thing I believe: Liars should be lynched People make mistakes. But I believe your post is intentionally misleading, not accidental. ##Vote: Celestial | ||
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