EPTMatch Making Rating Tool - Page 184
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Ziggy
South Korea2105 Posts
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korona
1098 Posts
On April 09 2014 00:33 ZiggyPG wrote: Did you even read what I said in that post? It adjusted itself to 1600. Yet I don't find it reliable information, cause that would mean I lost an average of 35 mmr / lost game when it shows a ~15 mmr change for each game I played. It is possible that your MMR has changed much more than the typical amount of +-16 (typical amount against similar level opponents) per match. It depends who you were matched against. Also if there has been MMR decay (2 weeks or more inactivity) after your last 'good game' it naturally causes that your rating has dropped. One thing that I did not understand from your description. Did you or did you not have a 'good game' after your 10 games losing streak (games from the losing streak not recorded) that was in similar level than the previous 'good game'. In that case there might have been an data error regarding that match. They are rare and usually result an upward spike. It is usually easy to deduce such values (don't remember having seen them ever happening twice in the row) and set them manually bad. These data errors can be caused by various things. One example is that your game ends just when the bonus pool increases and there are delays regarding the web profile updates. There are fail-saves to prevent this, but still rarely this causes 1 point incorrect change points that causes considerable jump regarding the calculated MMR. Actually now as web-profiles are often updating out-of-sync there could be a case, when opponents' pre-profile is from one match earlier and post-profile is from the beginning of the match. If certain fail-saves are not activated, it would give you MMR of your opponent's previous opponent. Still this should be rare (opponent's both matches should for example be very short). Also note that data errors result upward spikes. Haven't seen any downward spikes. Thus it is likely that the 1600 value is correct. Also now as the ladder lock period is in effect: If you played after the ladder lock started with the pre-lock db file, it would lead to incorrect values. | ||
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Ziggy
South Korea2105 Posts
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korona
1098 Posts
On April 09 2014 16:29 ZiggyPG wrote: I went on that losing streak against Grandmasters, there was no inactivity and the match that was recorded after those 10 with no replays saved was a good game. What do you think about resetting data on that account on sc2gears. would that help ? No. Play more. If and when the future data points ('good games') are consistent with the latest numbers, then you can be quite sure that there was a problem regarding the match ('good game') after your unrecorded losing streak. Then you set that match bad via 'Config' > 'Data' > 'Refresh' > Choose correct match from the list > 'mark as bad game'. Clearing the whole match history does nothing as the calculation is always match based. If there is some problems with the data regarding one match, the calculation results for that match can be incorrect. And as Blizzards web profiles have been suffering from out-of-sync updates, the likelihood for such errors has increased (thought there are lots of fail-saves that detect these errors in most cases and mark the match bad). Also due to the out-of-sync web profile updates I had to disable unranked detection for lost games (out-of-sync data on the web-profiles made some ranked matches to look like unranked matches as the match history updated immediately (0 points lost) and it took several minutes for the ladder page to update (seemed like no change regarding ranked wins, losses, points)). Thus also make sure that there are no lost unranked matches in the mix (unranked has separate MMR). -- As an unrelated note I have been observing some regional ladders (not MMR tool data and just observing - nothing systematical). And it seems that based on adjusted points lots of master players are actually in diamond range. --> There will be demotions when the new season starts. Also as the MMR decay was not removed and this was a quite long season, then many have faced MMR decay. And this also leads to demotions. It will be interesting to see if Blizzard once again adjusts the offsets to combat the decay. If they do, then there will be once again a data gathering period up-to 3 weeks to solve the new offsets. -- Edit 2 (2014-04-10): Played lots of games yesterday both on EU and NA. The web profiles for both servers are still having frequent out-of-sync issues. One can hope Blizzard notices the problems and fixes them some time soon. It is shame that the web-api is missing some info (like used / available bonus pool) & has been little unreliable in past (api profiles break if new icons are released + api profiles during season switch often give 'randomly' either past or current season data), so it is not an option to switch to fully using API. Have not checked if it suffers the out-of-sync issues too. | ||
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korona
1098 Posts
As KR, SEA and CN should already have switched seasons I released a DB that locks data for all servers (no good games, data is used for estimate games). In a few days when Blizzard has updated all web profiles to new season (S18) I will solve bonus pool accumulation start times & release the lock. Please restart Sc2gears to download the DB. The new DB file should be in use at the latest when your local server switches seasons. Edit: Pushed new DB with new season number for EU. EU players please update. Edit 2: Pushed new DB with new season number for NA. The DB will remain locked until Blizzard has updated the web profiles for S18 (S2/2014) for all servers & after that new bonus pool accumulation starting times have been solved. Edit 3 (2014-04-15 midnight): Now Blizzard has partially updated the web profiles for all servers. But things are messed up. For EU, NA, KR and CN the main profile page data is mostly from S17 (both web profile & API, thought API has new season's number even if all data is from S17). Bonus pool is not available anywhere and it is needed by the MMR tool. SEA profiles return an error. Until Blizzard fixes the profiles DB has to be kept locked. Also API is still broken for all players who use Diablo 3 RoS CE icons. Edit 4: now 11 hours later the web profiles are still messed up. Thought for KR and SEA the web profiles give correct bonus pool ~50% times. For EU and US less than 10% of times. CN is somewhere in middle. I hope this is fixed soon. | ||
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korona
1098 Posts
The SC2 web profiles are still messed up for all servers and thus I cannot release the DB lock (data for new matches cannot be used for calculating MMR but only used as estimate matches). The most dire problem is that incorrect unused bonus pool is often shown on the web profiles (if the unused bonus pool is not available then adjusted points cannot be calculated and thus MMR cannot be calculated). If Blizzard does not fix the profiles the only way to go round this problem is to set all new data for players' whose bonus pool is 0 as invalid. Such 'fix' would require that a new version of MMR tool would be prepared. But I am not enthusiastic to make such ugly 'fix'. It is better to wait at least for some days (or more) & hope that Blizzard fixes the profiles. 2014-04-16: Web profiles still not fixed Here are examples regarding bonus pool data quality from the profiles ('G' = good data, '.'= invalid data). In these examples certain profiles are polled once ~10 seconds. As you can see bpool data is not trustworthy at the moment. Situation on both NA & EU is much worse than the situation on Asia servers. NA server ('G' = good bpool data, '.' = invalid bpool data):2014-04-17 Web profiles still broken, DB v18.1 released that sets bonus pool start times, but it still remains locked New DB that remains locked (no 'good games' possible) was released. It sets bonus pool accumulation start time estimates for this season. There has been no change regarding the web profiles. Fresh poll results (every ~10 sec) from each server are found below. For example after bonus pool tick on EU, it took ~8 minutes before first correct bonus pool count was received (most of the previous results suggested invalid 0 bonus pool). NA server ('G' = good bpool data, '.' = invalid bpool data):Thank you for posting the following on NA forums. No need to repost it anymore: + Show Spoiler + Topic: Both SC2 web profiles and API are malfunctioning after season change Here are some problems that started occurring to SC2 web profiles & SC2 API for all servers after the season change. I hope these are resolved soon: - Main web profile page returns randomly either S17 (S1/2014) or S18 (S2/2014) data (S17 data is returned most of the time) - Web profiles' ladder pages randomly return either S17 (S1/2014) or S18 (S2/2014) ladder data (S18 data is returned more frequently) - Correct unused bonus pool is most of the time not shown on the ladder division web page anymore. In these cases it does not show unused bonus pool at all, which normally should mean that the player has used all of his bonus pool. - Season number is often not shown on the main web profile page nor the ladder division pages - Matches are often updated to web profiles out-of-sync. The match history is usually updated immediately after the match, but it can take several minutes until the ladder division page is updated. Thus the players' web profile data is often out-of-sync. This problem started already more than a month ago - Main SC2 API data was updated to have the new season number, but all other data (such as win & loss counts) is from the previous season - SC2 API returns an error for all players who are using Diablo 3 RoS CE icons. | ||
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leopardb
Germany92 Posts
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korona
1098 Posts
On April 17 2014 18:18 leopardb wrote: It's so weird : the portraits are updated, the match history is also updated, but the rest is not : are they doing it per hand ? Yes. It is likely that they do the season change manually regarding the web profiles & API (season change regarding game itself was automated after HotS release, before that they did it manually too). And whoever was responsible to do it this time messed up big time. Also it seems that their different web servers are in different state. I updated the web profile bonus pool issue situation to my previous message. The bug report someone posted yesterday by my request still stands. Edit (2014-04-18 EU midnight): It seems that the web profiles have now been fixed at least regarding the bonus pool. Will monitor situation and if there are no problems will release DB lock sometime on Friday. Edit 2: After the bonus pools were fixed there has been 0 invalid bonus pool results in polling tests. | ||
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korona
1098 Posts
Blizzard fixed the web profiles regarding bonus pool some 10+ hours ago after lots of problems. Though some of the API data that is not used by MMR tool is still incorrect. But now it was possible to unlock the DB. Please restart Sc2gears to download the new DB file. After this update it is possible to get 'good games' once again (it is possible to calculate MMR from new matches depending on the data). In the near future it should be checked if the web servers are still suffering from out-of-sync updates regarding new matches (is it possible to enable unranked detection regarding lost matches again). Also there is always a possibility that Blizzard has changed offsets, even if it is unlikely (user graphs would quickly become erratic for those who are near the league thresholds if there are offset changes). | ||
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Dunmer
United Kingdom568 Posts
I thought I was finally getting close to masters since he would have to be recently promoted so I figured his MMR was close to masters since its a new season and all and it couldnt really fall too far. | ||
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korona
1098 Posts
On April 19 2014 04:04 Dunmer wrote: I played a masters players on Kr the other day and his MMR is set about 330 below the masters league threshold and about 200 above diamond league. Does this suggest a change in MMR value for league thresholds? I thought I was finally getting close to masters since he would have to be recently promoted so I figured his MMR was close to masters since its a new season and all and it couldnt really fall too far. If he would be that much below just after his placement, it would mean he would have considerably negative win - loss difference. I tried to find that opponent, but did not find any current master opponents (if I guessed your accounts correct). There was one unranked opponent who had been in master, but that match was set bad. Are you sure it was after the DB was released (during last 24 hours)? But generally player graphs looked quite consistent (likely no larger offset changes at least). There were few player graphs that need to be looked at in the future thought when more data has been collected. | ||
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corydoras
161 Posts
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Noruxas
Netherlands129 Posts
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korona
1098 Posts
On April 21 2014 22:16 Noruxas wrote: Guys, I hate to ask because someone probably already awnsered this but, did this MMR Tool stop supporting WoL? I've played over 20 games and it still says it hasn't found good data. It supports still WoL too. Offsets were changed in early last season and there was not enough data to determine exact offsets for WoL. Thus there may be some inaccuracies regarding WoL offsets. But more than a month ago Blizzard web profiles started randomly updating out-of-sync. The match history would update promptly, but the ladder division page would either update promptly or it could take several minutes before it would be updated. Thus lots of data has to be set bad, if out-of-sync data is detected. Couple of weeks ago quite large percent of matches was affected on NA & EU servers. On April 21 2014 03:28 corydoras wrote: Korona, it might be a wild conspiracy theory but what if Bliz does not want to fix the issue with out-of-sync updates of match data in order to make life harder for you and other people who intend to reverse engineer the MMR? I mean - does it make any difference to anyone other than you that the web profiles are updated slightly later? It has been so long since these problem started that I can't help wondering if they have any real incentive to fix it. In the past they have had problems keeping data on their different web servers in sync with each others / potential caching problems. This normally has been reflected e.g. during season switches when e.g. their API randomly returns either old or new data. But last season this problem extended to the web profiles in the middle of the season. It is possible that they have not been aware & web profiles are not likely high in their priority lists. It might be that some servers are getting the match data promptly, but there are problems with others. And it is based on luck which server responds to your request. But due to the out-of-sync data there will be more data errors that cause incorrect values regarding MMR calculation. There are lots of fail-saves that catch most of these, but some still get through. For example I quickly reviewed user graphs regarding potential offset changes. The graphs seem consistent which means there has not been at least larger changes. But some graphs were little erratic. And the incorrect values were from people from the same league (offsets do not matter with opponents from the same league). I will have to investigate this in the future, but it is likely these bumps might be caused by data errors. | ||
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Morgorth
Germany4 Posts
![[image loading]](http://i.imgur.com/V8NJgdI.png) Thank you for this tool! Morgorth | ||
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BrokenBladez
6 Posts
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korona
1098 Posts
On April 25 2014 01:20 BrokenBladez wrote: So, I think my tool messed up. I'm in gold league but it suddenly adjusted me to being just under diamond. Is there any reason for this? I've also tried to find a way to reset it and start over with it, but I can't seem to find a way to do that. Any help would be appreciated! Thanks for the tool. From time to time there will be invalid values (usually very rare). These can be due data errors (e.g. change points are rarely recorded incorrectly if the match ends just when the bonus pool tick happens or something due to the web profiles updating out-of-sync) or due slightly incorrect cap detection border. It is usually easy to recognize such values. And such invalid 'good games' can be set bad via 'Config' > 'Data' > 'Refresh' > Choose correct match from the list > 'mark as bad game' and then clicking 'Save&exit' To recognize the invalid 'good game' (game from which the MMR was calculated) you can either hover your mouse over the match dots or enable following setting: 'Config' > 'Data' > 'Mark assumptions / bad games' and then clicking 'Save&exit' But during the early season it usually is good idea to wait awhile as there is always a possibility that Blizzard has changed the offsets. It is not still verified for this season, but it is likely that there has been no changes. | ||
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BrokenBladez
6 Posts
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BrokenBladez
6 Posts
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korona
1098 Posts
On April 29 2014 10:02 BrokenBladez wrote: Okay. Well, it put me up near under diamond again, so I'm assuming it's not a glitch. Why I'm still gold though, is a mystery to me. Of course it is a 'glitch'. You would already been promoted if your MMR was in platinum range (exception fresh account with less than 25 games). Also make sure you were not playing unranked mode in that match (if your were remove it as unranked has its own MMR. Unranked detection for lost games is disabled at the moment). The web profiles are still updating out-of-sync which might to lead increased ratio of data errors, which lead to incorrect values. This problem exists until Blizzard fixes their web profiles. Of course there could have been some capping border adjustments that I have to look at in the future. But haven't had much time for such analysis lately or play the game myself (except decay prevention games). Also it may be hard for me to recognize which data is based on out-of-sync data and which is not, if it has passed the long series of checks and not been automatically marked as bad. If I happen to play such game in the future myself I will know for sure. Next weekend the season will be 3 weeks old. During the I will try to find time for offset analysis and also generally check user graphs. Last time I checked the graphs they mostly were consistent, but some accounts had some erratic bumps that were not caused by offset problems (from opponents from the same league). | ||
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