|
On May 08 2014 02:33 IMScientist wrote:
Did you guys updated the tool?
I see that plat offset is about 830,diamond is 1080 before i had 680 mmr and after a few game i have 985
Like the original post of this thread says Blizzard updated the offsets / thresholds last week's Friday. It takes potentially 3 weeks to collect enough new data. And as the out-of-sync issue regarding web profiles continues, I am not even going to try before few weeks worth of data has been collected (easier to recognize good values from values due data errors when there is more data).
Please use the tool even if the calculations are incorrect for few weeks. When the new offsets have been solved, the old post-offset-change calculations are automatically corrected. I should also prepare a new version of the tool that archives the pre-offset-change data.
Copy from the original post:
2014-05-02: Blizzard seems to have made league offset / threshold changes last night --> MMR calculations values and league borders may be incorrect until new league offsets are calculatedThe changes happened around 2014-05-01 21:30 GMT for NA server and likely some time close to that for other servers. Please use the MMR tool even if the calculations are likely to be incorrect for couple of weeks. Lots of match data is needed to be able to calculate the new offsets. This time as the web-servers are often updating out-of-sync, even more data than normally may be needed. Some notes: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=21296149
|
Hi guys,
Is there any reason why I am seeing these big "jumps" up and down in my MMR?
![[image loading]](http://i.imgur.com/5N5CHd3.jpg)
Thanks.
|
On May 11 2014 11:15 Shagrathsc wrote:Hi guys, Is there any reason why I am seeing these big "jumps" up and down in my MMR? + Show Spoiler +Thanks.
Blizzard changed league offsets & thresholds little over a week ago. The new offsets have not yet been solved. See the message before your message and / or the original post for more information.
|
Hi korona,
Yes I was aware of that before my post. But I thought the offset change would just push the MMR up, and not up and down, which doesn't make sense to me.
|
On May 12 2014 00:27 Shagrathsc wrote:
Hi korona,
Yes I was aware of that before my post. But I thought the offset change would just push the MMR up, and not up and down, which doesn't make sense to me.
When offsets are not known points calculated from data of players who are in a different league cannot be plotted to common scale. Thus it often leads that MMR calculations go up and down near league borders, if you play against people from different leagues.
When incorrect offsets are used calculation results against people from your own league are comparable with each others. Also calculation results from matches against certain upper league opponents are comparable with each others, but are not comparable with calculation results from matches against your own league players.
For example your league is A. The following the characters present opponent's league (A, B or C):
A A A B B A C
Good 'A' calculation results are comparable with other 'A' results, good 'B' calculations results are comparable with other 'B' results, good 'C' calculation results comparable with other 'C' results. 'A' calculation results are not directly comparable with 'B' or 'C' results.
|
Yes, everything you said makes sense. However, I am currently playing in mid-diamond range facing only diamond players. Please check the image below:
![[image loading]](http://i.imgur.com/NzquRmM.jpg)
|
On May 12 2014 02:36 Shagrathsc wrote:
Yes, everything you said makes sense. However, I am currently playing in mid-diamond range facing only diamond players.
But then the league boundaries recently changed, perhaps putting you closer to the Diamond/Master boundary? Until there is enough data to calculate new offsets we won't know for sure I guess.
This new offset calculation came in sooner than I was expecting. If there are going to be very regular updates to the offsets then for the foreseeable future the vast majority of promotions, maybe of the order of 99%, are going to be occurring due to offset changes. You may be working towards that promotion and you might be 10% of the way there, or 90% of the way there... and then the offset change hits and everyone promotes. Now how do people know if they were "near" to that promotion on their own, or if they were far off, or even if they are actually going down in MMR?
If you see what I am getting at here. This decay + regular offset change idea they've got going presumably dominates promotion mechanics now. There is no way to separate real promotions from 'fake' ones. Is this really what Blizzard want? Do they really want the vast majority of players, who may or may not be making progress but are trying, to only get promotions when everyone else gets them (and then get demoted some time later anyway as decay sets in again)?
It just doesn't make any sense for them to continue with this ridiculous system. Either players care about promotions, in which case constant fake promotions and demotions are highly frustrating because people want to feel they earned that promotion, not just got one because everyone did... and then had it taken away shorty afterwards. Or players don't care about leagues at all, in which case Blizzard should just set it so no one can every be demoted and be done with it.
For the average player with a job/school and a family/friends who has a life outside SC2 the effort required to move up in skill is a pretty significant investment. In that light this kind of shit messing with the previously superb ladder is impossible to understand.
And of course we can't forget that the matchmaking is still screwed up in lower leagues where varying levels of decay/played against decay lead to a wide range of MMRs for similarly skilled players. No one is benefiting from this situation.
|
On May 12 2014 02:36 Shagrathsc wrote:Yes, everything you said makes sense. However, I am currently playing in mid-diamond range facing only diamond players. Please check the image below: + Show Spoiler +
If those good games were all against players of the same league then they should be comparable, unless there are some errors. And as Blizzard's web servers are nowadays often updating out-of-sync (match history updates immediately, but it may take several minutes for the ladder pages to update) data errors happen more often. There are fail-saves for detecting if the data is out-of-sync, but there are cases when it cannot be detected (for example if no pre-match data).
Most of the user profiles were quite clean during the first few weeks of the season, but for some profiles there was more this up-and-down movement. But haven't had time to go through the data to confirm if it is entirely caused by data errors or if there has also been small changes to the system (for example capping mechanic changes).
And then the new league offset / threshold changes were made. At the moment most important thing is find out the new offsets and do the archiving of old data. And then collect data and see if this continues and hope that Blizzard would fix the web profiles.
Some earlier notes regarding out-of-sync issue:
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=21076298
--
Also like the previous poster said note that the league thresholds have also changed. Thus you may be somewhere else in diamond range than the mid-range.
|
On May 12 2014 21:44 Spirit09 wrote:Show nested quote +On May 12 2014 02:36 Shagrathsc wrote:
Yes, everything you said makes sense. However, I am currently playing in mid-diamond range facing only diamond players. But then the league boundaries recently changed, perhaps putting you closer to the Diamond/Master boundary? Until there is enough data to calculate new offsets we won't know for sure I guess.
Yes the boundaries changed too. I haven't looked at the general data at all, but can give you one example. One account that I know was around bottom border of platinum league before the offset changes. After the changes it was promoted to diamond (likely close to the bottom border). So the changes for some leagues were quite considerable even if platinum was the smallest league regarding its MMR range before the changes.
On May 12 2014 21:44 Spirit09 wrote:
This new offset calculation came in sooner than I was expecting. If there are going to be very regular updates to the offsets then for the foreseeable future the vast majority of promotions, maybe of the order of 99%, are going to be occurring due to offset changes. You may be working towards that promotion and you might be 10% of the way there, or 90% of the way there... and then the offset change hits and everyone promotes. Now how do people know if they were "near" to that promotion on their own, or if they were far off, or even if they are actually going down in MMR?
If you see what I am getting at here. This decay + regular offset change idea they've got going presumably dominates promotion mechanics now. There is no way to separate real promotions from 'fake' ones. Is this really what Blizzard want? Do they really want the vast majority of players, who may or may not be making progress but are trying, to only get promotions when everyone else gets them (and then get demoted some time later anyway as decay sets in again)?
It just doesn't make any sense for them to continue with this ridiculous system. Either players care about promotions, in which case constant fake promotions and demotions are highly frustrating because people want to feel they earned that promotion, not just got one because everyone did... and then had it taken away shorty afterwards. Or players don't care about leagues at all, in which case Blizzard should just set it so no one can every be demoted and be done with it.
For the average player with a job/school and a family/friends who has a life outside SC2 the effort required to move up in skill is a pretty significant investment. In that light this kind of shit messing with the previously superb ladder is impossible to understand.
And of course we can't forget that the matchmaking is still screwed up in lower leagues where varying levels of decay/played against decay lead to a wide range of MMRs for similarly skilled players. No one is benefiting from this situation.
The situation is messed up. Last summer when I originally realized for certain that there was MMR decay mechanic, I thought it must be a bug as the decay was so considerable. It seemed illogical to have so considerable MMR decay for a game where considerable portion of player base goes inactive from time to time and would likely lead to cascading effect (like it did). But it turned out to be planned feature, which Blizzard did not want the players to know about (after several of months community pressure last year they admitted it, but downplayed its effects).
Their philosophy from the beginning has been not to show exact ratings, but to try to encourage players to play more, when players see their ladder points go steadily up. You can get quite high in your division just by spending your bonus pool. But before HotS the MMR itself seemed to correlate with player skill nicely. Now as the MMR decay feature has been used for over a year, the MMRs in the lower leagues often do not correlate with skill (skill can be anything from starter to multiple times master).
It also seems that Blizzard is not willing to spend resources to fix the problem. Heroes of the Storm (aka Blizzard Dota) is the main project for their RTS development team and Starcraft 2 is a secondary project. Month or two before the offset changes that happened at start of January, Blizzard was promising a 'fix' that would address the problems. The 'fix' turned out to be just changed numbers (offset changes). One could speculate that we are not going to see any changes to the ladder / matchmaking system until LotV. It may take awhile until LotV as they are focusing on Heroes of the Storm first. Thus we will likely see many offset changes in the future too.
This discussion would be better suited for MMR decay thread.
|
When I ran the plugin and the game starts I get a .NET installer pop up. Is this normal? I'm on windows 8.1. I believe it wants me to install .net 3.x?
|
On May 15 2014 00:48 FreeZEternal wrote:
When I ran the plugin and the game starts I get a .NET installer pop up. Is this normal? I'm on windows 8.1. I believe it wants me to install .net 3.x?
The tool itself requires only Java 7 or newer. But the memory reader if enabled requires some NET version. InfCereal should have better knowledge of requirements for the memory reader as he has compiled it.
|
I'm not sure if this had been answered already but :
When you finish a game, while the Post-trigger is running can you requeue a game ? and if the a new game starts before the Post-trigger is over, does that affect the Pre-trigger ? should one wait for the Post-trigger to finish before requeueing a game ?
Thx
|
China6326 Posts
On May 15 2014 01:40 leopardb wrote:
I'm not sure if this had been answered already but :
When you finish a game, while the Post-trigger is running can you requeue a game ? and if the a new game starts before the Post-trigger is over, does that affect the Pre-trigger ? should one wait for the Post-trigger to finish before requeueing a game ?
Thx
You don't have to, the calculation are done regardless of your game status, and it run pretty fast anyway.
|
On May 15 2014 01:51 digmouse wrote:
You don't have to, the calculation are done regardless of your game status, and it run pretty fast anyway.
Well, i was wondering because it seems that while the calculation itself might be fast, the request sent to the Blizzard servers does not seem to be answered in a timely fashion, hence i was wondering if the next request (the one supposedly launched during the Pre-trigger) would be delayed or even cancelled because of this...
|
Do I need to run sc2Gears as admin for the RAM reader to work? I don't get any pop ups from UAC so I am not sure if it's really working or not. How can I check if the RAM reader is working properly?
|
On May 15 2014 02:15 leopardb wrote:Show nested quote +On May 15 2014 01:51 digmouse wrote:
You don't have to, the calculation are done regardless of your game status, and it run pretty fast anyway. Well, i was wondering because it seems that while the calculation itself might be fast, the request sent to the Blizzard servers does not seem to be answered in a timely fashion, hence i was wondering if the next request (the one supposedly launched during the Pre-trigger) would be delayed or even cancelled because of this...
It is better to wait a minute, but most of the time there is no harm done even if you start a new game immediately. The fetches are put on queue and do not happen concurrently. After match it waits 60 seconds before it fetches the data. If you start new game immediately and the game ends immediately, it might lead to problems with data (the results of the second match might have already been updated to the web profiles when the fetch for the first match happens). In most of these cases the tool should notice it and set the data bad. If the next match lasts more than a minute, there should no be any problems as pre-game data can be taken at any point of the match before the ending.
The fetch delays are: 40 seconds after the start of the match (final stages of the match loading screen) and 60 seconds after the end of the match (when replay is saved).
|
On May 15 2014 02:39 FreeZEternal wrote:
Do I need to run sc2Gears as admin for the RAM reader to work? I don't get any pop ups from UAC so I am not sure if it's really working or not. How can I check if the RAM reader is working properly?
You can check if the memory reader is functioning from the game log. Choose 'Log' button from the upper toolbar & then 'Game Log'. The memory reader results are shown in following manner (note that these are imaginary players):
19:33:39 Game Start detected
19:33:39 Searching memory for character profiles for game HotS
19:33:39 Reading Memory ...OK
19:33:39 Ramscanner: name1 : PLAYER_1
19:33:39 Ramscanner: id1 : 1-123456
19:33:39 Ramscanner: name2 : PLAYER_2
19:33:39 Ramscanner: id2 : 1-654321
Note that even if these are read immediately at the end of the loading screen, they are shown after ~40 sec delay when the pre-match data has been fetched from the web profiles. Thus check the log after match.
Edit: You can test the memory reader also by running a replay. It will read the data when the replay starts & show it in the 'Game Log' after 40 sec delay.
|
On May 15 2014 02:58 korona wrote:Show nested quote +On May 15 2014 02:39 FreeZEternal wrote:
Do I need to run sc2Gears as admin for the RAM reader to work? I don't get any pop ups from UAC so I am not sure if it's really working or not. How can I check if the RAM reader is working properly? You can check if the memory reader is functioning from the game log. Choose 'Log' button from the upper toolbar & then 'Game Log'. The memory reader results are shown in following manner (note that these are imaginary players): 19:33:39 Game Start detected
19:33:39 Searching memory for character profiles for game HotS
19:33:39 Reading Memory ...OK
19:33:39 Ramscanner: name1 : PLAYER_1
19:33:39 Ramscanner: id1 : 1-123456
19:33:39 Ramscanner: name2 : PLAYER_2
19:33:39 Ramscanner: id2 : 1-654321
Note that even if these are read immediately at the end of the loading screen, they are shown after ~40 sec delay when the pre-match data has been fetched from the web profiles. Thus check the log after match. Edit: You can test the memory reader also by running a replay. It will read the data when the replay starts & show it in the 'Game Log' after 40 sec delay.
Awesome! I found the log and it looks like it's working correctly. Thanks!
|
On May 13 2014 01:31 korona wrote:This discussion would be better suited for MMR decay thread.
I agree. Unfortunately there is a chap in that thread by the name of Thieving Magpie, who is determined that no one may have an opinion on the matter. He shuts down any discussion with his posts and I've no desire to waste my time so I posted here instead. That thread would indeed be better but people just don't want to post there any more.
|
Getting some weird errors and MMR-stats hasn't worked right for me in a while. I deleted everything and reinstalled, here is the game log.
+ Show Spoiler +16:03:35 Adjusted calculator ERROR: Invalid player data: http://us.battle.net/sc2/en/profile/2792558/1/Decy/ 16:03:35 DATA Alg. A : success: http://us.battle.net/sc2/en/profile/2898584/1/ShadowedRadi/ 16:03:35 DATA Alg.B: success:http://us.battle.net/sc2/en/profile/2898584/1/ShadowedRadi/ 16:03:35 Gamecheck: true 16:03:35 POST-Trigger done 16:03:35 Data quality needs to be 100% to be able to calculate MMR 16:03:35 Data quality for calculating Player's MMR: 75% 16:03:35 Data quality for calculating Opponent's MMR: 50% 16:03:37 OK Uploader: game uploaded 16:03:37 Ladder Game Done! 16:03:37 -------------------------- 16:03:37 -------------------------- 16:03:37 Game Start detected 16:03:37 Searching memory for character profiles for game HotS 16:03:37 Reading Memory ...OK 16:03:37 OK Found Memory-Profile in Active-Profiles! 16:04:17 Pre-trigger: Reading web profiles 16:04:20 FATALERROR WEBGRABBER could not fetch season number! EXPECTED: 18. Player: http://us.battle.net/sc2/en/profile/2792558/1/Decy/ 16:04:20 Webgrabber: Player false 16:04:23 Webgrabber: Opponent true 16:04:23 Pre-trigger: Done reading web profiles 16:04:23 Pre-Trigger done 16:27:49 -------------------------- 16:27:49 Game Start detected 16:27:49 Searching memory for character profiles for game HotS 16:27:49 Reading Memory ...OK 16:27:49 OK Found Memory-Profile in Active-Profiles! 16:28:29 Pre-trigger: Reading web profiles 16:28:32 FATALERROR WEBGRABBER could not fetch season number! EXPECTED: 18. Player: http://us.battle.net/sc2/en/profile/2792558/1/Decy/ 16:28:32 Webgrabber: Player false 16:28:36 Webgrabber: Opponent true 16:28:36 Pre-trigger: Done reading web profiles 16:28:36 Pre-Trigger done 16:43:51 Post-trigger: Start 16:44:51 Post-trigger: Reading web profiles 16:44:54 FATALERROR WEBGRABBER could not fetch season number! EXPECTED: 18. Player: http://us.battle.net/sc2/en/profile/2792558/1/Decy/
Any ideas what is going on?
|
|
|
|
|
|
EPT
