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On June 20 2013 05:16 jaybrundage wrote:Show nested quote +On June 20 2013 04:10 kitaman27 wrote:
jay, could you point me to the reason you have a town read on Vivax in the meantime? I have trouble reading Vivax. I had a town read on him day 1 for defending me and helping make sure i wasn't the day 1 mislynch. But as his activity wavered i began to doubt my early read on him and that he could be scum. However there was people I was alot more sure were scum. Sent and then prplhz. It just seems hard to pin anything scummy on him. He has been having a fairly straight forward game with lower activity then I like. The biggest thing that i think can implicate him is that he was roleblocked when there was no shot. But the same thing happened to Sent and Sent turned out to not be scum. Ill go over Vivax again. But it just seems like most of the case against him. Is based on blue's and KP instead of actually content in his filter. Also the fact that WoS mentioned scum messing with blue roles or faking using them. Made me really suspicious about people that were "confirmed town" via blue roles. With all the no shots going on. Isn't it likely that scum just held a shot off one day or decided to use a blue role to get town cred for the late game. The scum have done a solid job so far blending in. I wouldnt put it past this scum team to lost KP to gain towncred late game. Thats why I think Vayne is a more likely candidate as well.
we're talking a night 3 withheld KP here if you think im scum. Do you honestly believe thats likely GIVEN THE CIRCUMSTANCES OF THE GAME AT THE TIME?
Like it makes zero sense. Anyone town on me right now is probably just sick of the game to looking to get it over with.
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have to do groceries right now but
##vote:vivax to show my intention
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On June 20 2013 05:18 kitaman27 wrote:Show nested quote +On June 20 2013 05:16 jaybrundage wrote:On June 20 2013 04:10 kitaman27 wrote:
jay, could you point me to the reason you have a town read on Vivax in the meantime? I have trouble reading Vivax. I had a town read on him day 1 for defending me and helping make sure i wasn't the day 1 mislynch. But as his activity wavered i began to doubt my early read on him and that he could be scum. However there was people I was alot more sure were scum. Sent and then prplhz. It just seems hard to pin anything scummy on him. He has been having a fairly straight forward game with lower activity then I like. The biggest thing that i think can implicate him is that he was roleblocked when there was no shot. But the same thing happened to Sent and Sent turned out to not be scum. Ill go over Vivax again. But it just seems like most of the case against him. Is based on blue's and KP instead of actually content in his filter. Also the fact that WoS mentioned scum messing with blue roles or faking using them. Made me really suspicious about people that were "confirmed town" via blue roles. With all the no shots going on. Isn't it likely that scum just held a shot off one day or decided to use a blue role to get town cred for the late game. The scum have done a solid job so far blending in. I wouldnt put it past this scum team to lost KP to gain towncred late game. Thats why I think Vayne is a more likely candidate as well. None of this really tells me why you think Vivax is town. Or do you not have a town read on him?
I have a null read on Vivax. I don't find the KP argument compelling enough to lynch him over people that have been acting like scum in there filter. If vayne flips green (unlikely i know) then I think Vivax is much more likely to be scum. Or scum would have just decided to hold KP for no reason Possible but very unlikley
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On June 20 2013 05:19 VayneAuthority wrote:Show nested quote +On June 20 2013 05:16 jaybrundage wrote:On June 20 2013 04:10 kitaman27 wrote:
jay, could you point me to the reason you have a town read on Vivax in the meantime? I have trouble reading Vivax. I had a town read on him day 1 for defending me and helping make sure i wasn't the day 1 mislynch. But as his activity wavered i began to doubt my early read on him and that he could be scum. However there was people I was alot more sure were scum. Sent and then prplhz. It just seems hard to pin anything scummy on him. He has been having a fairly straight forward game with lower activity then I like. The biggest thing that i think can implicate him is that he was roleblocked when there was no shot. But the same thing happened to Sent and Sent turned out to not be scum. Ill go over Vivax again. But it just seems like most of the case against him. Is based on blue's and KP instead of actually content in his filter. Also the fact that WoS mentioned scum messing with blue roles or faking using them. Made me really suspicious about people that were "confirmed town" via blue roles. With all the no shots going on. Isn't it likely that scum just held a shot off one day or decided to use a blue role to get town cred for the late game. The scum have done a solid job so far blending in. I wouldnt put it past this scum team to lost KP to gain towncred late game. Thats why I think Vayne is a more likely candidate as well. we're talking a night 3 withheld KP here if you think im scum. Do you honestly believe thats likely GIVEN THE CIRCUMSTANCES OF THE GAME AT THE TIME? Like it makes zero sense. Anyone town on me right now is probably just sick of the game to looking to get it over with.
So you think it doesn't make sense to hold a KP when your scum team rolls doctor so you can get free town cred for late game.
Lemme guess you don't think scum manipulated any blue rolls at all right. We should just take them at face value as infallible truths./sarcasm
Is that truly what you believe
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kitaman27
United States9244 Posts
On June 20 2013 05:32 jaybrundage wrote:Show nested quote +On June 20 2013 05:19 VayneAuthority wrote:On June 20 2013 05:16 jaybrundage wrote:On June 20 2013 04:10 kitaman27 wrote:
jay, could you point me to the reason you have a town read on Vivax in the meantime? I have trouble reading Vivax. I had a town read on him day 1 for defending me and helping make sure i wasn't the day 1 mislynch. But as his activity wavered i began to doubt my early read on him and that he could be scum. However there was people I was alot more sure were scum. Sent and then prplhz. It just seems hard to pin anything scummy on him. He has been having a fairly straight forward game with lower activity then I like. The biggest thing that i think can implicate him is that he was roleblocked when there was no shot. But the same thing happened to Sent and Sent turned out to not be scum. Ill go over Vivax again. But it just seems like most of the case against him. Is based on blue's and KP instead of actually content in his filter. Also the fact that WoS mentioned scum messing with blue roles or faking using them. Made me really suspicious about people that were "confirmed town" via blue roles. With all the no shots going on. Isn't it likely that scum just held a shot off one day or decided to use a blue role to get town cred for the late game. The scum have done a solid job so far blending in. I wouldnt put it past this scum team to lost KP to gain towncred late game. Thats why I think Vayne is a more likely candidate as well. we're talking a night 3 withheld KP here if you think im scum. Do you honestly believe thats likely GIVEN THE CIRCUMSTANCES OF THE GAME AT THE TIME? Like it makes zero sense. Anyone town on me right now is probably just sick of the game to looking to get it over with. So you think it doesn't make sense to hold a KP when your scum team rolls doctor so you can get free town cred for late game. Lemme guess you don't think scum manipulated any blue rolls at all right. We should just take them at face value as infallible truths./sarcasm Is that truly what you believe
I think it's a terrible idea to withhold kp when your scum team rolls doctor.
I'd consider that the mafia team would double stack a player. Do you think JarJar is a likely double stack target?
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Vayne, the Abridged Series Episode 2
d2/n2
He calls himself confirmed town via Rayns WIFOM, then says if Ace flips scum we need to reexamine confirmed town because clearly Ace set something up. Purely speculation, but notice that he really doesn't do anything yet again.
When he does decide to post reads look at them
+ Show Spoiler [reads] +On June 09 2013 12:13 VayneAuthority wrote:
Also I would check out stutters, something is up there. Something doesn't feel right about him looking through his filter. Look at the progression that brought him to Rayn and how he's been pretty much afk for this 2nd day. On June 09 2013 12:23 VayneAuthority wrote:Show nested quote +On June 09 2013 12:16 WaveofShadow wrote:
Let's chat, you and I, since you seem to be around.
Firstly, you mention that there are 2 scum that bussed Rayn hard. Referring to Ace's separation of those who voted Rayn into the "had good reasons to vote" camp and the "inactivity lynch" camp, which camp are those scum more likely to fall?
Secondly, what are your thoughts on how we need to proceed on Day 3? They didn't necessarily have to bus him hard but they definitely voted somewhere in the middle of the pack im guessing or maybe even early (this is all assuming ace is scum) I would say the ones to me that look the most suspicious are stutters, Vivax, JJD. Leaning towards sentinel being town but really can't tell what he's doing tbh. stutters- Tosses around his vote a bit and is quite active, more than I would like from stutters but maybe he just had time on his hands. The damning part is that he kind of ends up on rayn with no real reason, just pops in the thread late and votes him. Vivax was trying to push a lynch on a weak player(me) which is something we both know scum love to do, and kind of just voted for rayn for no reason at all either. JJD is doing the same thing as last game where he kind of pre-conceives before the flip but I cant get a good read here, null leaning scum I've dropped the mkfuba thing but you thing I should re-examine it?
First notice that all four of his reads show little to no scum motivation. There's an irony here that he accuses Vivax of trying to push a lynch on a weak player when that is what he was doing to me (over a weekend I may add when I have made it abundantly clear I'm not as active). His JJD read is easily the worst reason of the 3 (at least voting Rayn without justification can be scummy, but he never explains why it is something that wouldn't happen as a townie).
Rinse and repeat that on me throughout the entire game.
Also this post is scummy as shit.
On June 09 2013 12:25 VayneAuthority wrote:
Day 3...well first of all we have to see who dies and what roles people claim. Then we need to carefully consider our lynch, Ace is probably going to die but we don't really need to discuss that unless some one gives an interesting cop report or something.
Day 3 should be used to setup for endgame I presume
afk a while, driving home.
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On June 20 2013 05:34 kitaman27 wrote:Show nested quote +On June 20 2013 05:32 jaybrundage wrote:On June 20 2013 05:19 VayneAuthority wrote:On June 20 2013 05:16 jaybrundage wrote:On June 20 2013 04:10 kitaman27 wrote:
jay, could you point me to the reason you have a town read on Vivax in the meantime? I have trouble reading Vivax. I had a town read on him day 1 for defending me and helping make sure i wasn't the day 1 mislynch. But as his activity wavered i began to doubt my early read on him and that he could be scum. However there was people I was alot more sure were scum. Sent and then prplhz. It just seems hard to pin anything scummy on him. He has been having a fairly straight forward game with lower activity then I like. The biggest thing that i think can implicate him is that he was roleblocked when there was no shot. But the same thing happened to Sent and Sent turned out to not be scum. Ill go over Vivax again. But it just seems like most of the case against him. Is based on blue's and KP instead of actually content in his filter. Also the fact that WoS mentioned scum messing with blue roles or faking using them. Made me really suspicious about people that were "confirmed town" via blue roles. With all the no shots going on. Isn't it likely that scum just held a shot off one day or decided to use a blue role to get town cred for the late game. The scum have done a solid job so far blending in. I wouldnt put it past this scum team to lost KP to gain towncred late game. Thats why I think Vayne is a more likely candidate as well. we're talking a night 3 withheld KP here if you think im scum. Do you honestly believe thats likely GIVEN THE CIRCUMSTANCES OF THE GAME AT THE TIME? Like it makes zero sense. Anyone town on me right now is probably just sick of the game to looking to get it over with. So you think it doesn't make sense to hold a KP when your scum team rolls doctor so you can get free town cred for late game. Lemme guess you don't think scum manipulated any blue rolls at all right. We should just take them at face value as infallible truths./sarcasm Is that truly what you believe I think it's a terrible idea to withhold kp when your scum team rolls doctor.I'd consider that the mafia team would double stack a player. Do you think JarJar is a likely double stack target?
So wouldn't that mean that its a good idea for scum to do it. Because it would make you think there town?
I don't think JJD was a likely double stack target but again thats not my angle.
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kitaman27
United States9244 Posts
On June 20 2013 06:18 jaybrundage wrote:Show nested quote +On June 20 2013 05:34 kitaman27 wrote:On June 20 2013 05:32 jaybrundage wrote:On June 20 2013 05:19 VayneAuthority wrote:On June 20 2013 05:16 jaybrundage wrote:On June 20 2013 04:10 kitaman27 wrote:
jay, could you point me to the reason you have a town read on Vivax in the meantime? I have trouble reading Vivax. I had a town read on him day 1 for defending me and helping make sure i wasn't the day 1 mislynch. But as his activity wavered i began to doubt my early read on him and that he could be scum. However there was people I was alot more sure were scum. Sent and then prplhz. It just seems hard to pin anything scummy on him. He has been having a fairly straight forward game with lower activity then I like. The biggest thing that i think can implicate him is that he was roleblocked when there was no shot. But the same thing happened to Sent and Sent turned out to not be scum. Ill go over Vivax again. But it just seems like most of the case against him. Is based on blue's and KP instead of actually content in his filter. Also the fact that WoS mentioned scum messing with blue roles or faking using them. Made me really suspicious about people that were "confirmed town" via blue roles. With all the no shots going on. Isn't it likely that scum just held a shot off one day or decided to use a blue role to get town cred for the late game. The scum have done a solid job so far blending in. I wouldnt put it past this scum team to lost KP to gain towncred late game. Thats why I think Vayne is a more likely candidate as well. we're talking a night 3 withheld KP here if you think im scum. Do you honestly believe thats likely GIVEN THE CIRCUMSTANCES OF THE GAME AT THE TIME? Like it makes zero sense. Anyone town on me right now is probably just sick of the game to looking to get it over with. So you think it doesn't make sense to hold a KP when your scum team rolls doctor so you can get free town cred for late game. Lemme guess you don't think scum manipulated any blue rolls at all right. We should just take them at face value as infallible truths./sarcasm Is that truly what you believe I think it's a terrible idea to withhold kp when your scum team rolls doctor.I'd consider that the mafia team would double stack a player. Do you think JarJar is a likely double stack target? So wouldn't that mean that its a good idea for scum to do it. Because it would make you think there town? I don't think JJD was a likely double stack target but again thats not my angle.
I could provide fake red dt checks on my scum buddies for three days in a row, everyone is going to think I'm town, but that doesn't mean it's a good idea.
What makes you think they would withhold over double stacking? In both scenarios, you are missing a kp, the medic can claim the missing kp, except in the double stacking scenario, a successful roleblock doesn't lead to a guaranteed scum lynch, you won't have to worry about the vet, and you can choose the best target for the stack.
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I admit that withholding would be dumb when you could double stack. What would probably make sense is them giving one kp to one person, one kp to another, and then both going for the same guy. This guarantees one kill, one "block" and their plan is a success.
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This would guarantee exactly one nk, regardless of who was roleblocker.
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On June 20 2013 05:08 Stutters695 wrote:
If a scum recieves the miller/GF role, are they informed that they are the GF for that night?
-> OP:
- Miller (or Godfather) are NOT self-aware. They recieve no nightly role PM.
Votecount
VayneAuthority (3): jaybrundage, mkfuba07, kitaman27
Vivax (1): VayneAuthority
Not Voting (3): Vivax, Stutters, layabout
Vayne is set to be lynched
~24 hours until deadline
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I don't understand why scum would double stack JJD.
I could see Vayne protecting the hit to try and boost his town cred and there is still the possibility of vivax getting role blocked.
Looking at the NKs it's pretty obvious Fuba and I can't be scum together since if we were there would have been no reason to sacrifice two NKs to give Fuba minor town cred with his vet absorption when as an alternative we could have easily shot knowing that Fuba was a very unlikely RB compared to me.
That doesn't clear me for that night but i know I'm telling the truth about it makes Fuba confirmed town to me because he's responsible for two saves when otherwise this is a potential lylo. Thus the question for me is are vivax/Vayne/both up to something? I think yes and Vayne is the more likely to flip scum.
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Also sorry DI, reading is really hard.
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Layabout if you think Vayne is town care to explain how you see some of the things we've listed?
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Updated and compiled N2 scum theory v.2.0.0.1:
Night two, scum get doc and veteran (possibly cop, who knows). They do not have roleblocker (prplhz). They have two people double stack JDD, and in this way guarantee that exactly one person dies that night regardless of who is roleblocked. This sets up a situation where there's exactly one kp missing, and by lynching vivax vayne becomes confirmed town.
So... lynch Vayne.
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On June 20 2013 08:56 mkfuba07 wrote:
Updated and compiled N2 scum theory v.2.0.0.1:
Night two, scum get doc and veteran (possibly cop, who knows). They do not have roleblocker (prplhz). They have two people double stack JDD, and in this way guarantee that exactly one person dies that night regardless of who is roleblocked. This sets up a situation where there's exactly one kp missing, and by lynching vivax vayne becomes confirmed town.
So... lynch Vayne.
really dude if you're town I never want to play with you again. Your logic is so trash tier I lose brain cells every time I read a post by you.
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##unvote
##vote:mkfuba07
how can this guy be town?
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Vayne I want you to explain why Fuba would be responsible for two saves if he's scum when if he didn't shoot himself last night it would be a potential lylo and he wasn't even remotely considered a serious lynch before today.
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Or justify your vote by anything other than night action speculation
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EPT
