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layabout
United Kingdom2600 Posts
In case i don't make it This is where i stand at the moment: Players most likely to be mafia: Trancestorm Goodkarma Players that stand a reasonable chance of being mafia@ Glurio Wade Fell (depending on other roles) TestSubject893 Mr. Wiggles Players that admited to being 3rd party and are currently advocating their own lynch: VisceraEyes | ||
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VisceraEyes
United States21170 Posts
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WaveofShadow
Canada31494 Posts
On March 22 2013 10:05 VisceraEyes wrote: I have not admitted to being third party. Just throwing that out there. And to be fair, I'm advocating a vig shot on me over a lynch of me. I would prefer if lynches hit scum. Just sayin. But what if you can't be killed by night shots as per the power that the mirror offered you lolololololol | ||
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ThePeashooter
United States100 Posts
If someone wants to kill Wade tonight I'd be the happiest person. I'm a bit tired from work and have to get up early so I probably won't be around much until tomorrow night which is about 20 hours from now. I feel bad for my inactivity and inability to get more reads so tomorrow I will bring forth at least one scum case during the day for a lynch and another for a vigilante/the next day. We are in bad shape right now, but we need to pull together, consolidate posts and do some fucking analysis and we can right our little townie ship and pull through. | ||
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kitaman27
United States9244 Posts
Wiggles should be priority number one tomorrow. When so many people believe he is scum, yet he is allowed to live, something is certainly wrong. Last cycle, people were hedging their bets by committing to a scum read so they can look good when he flips, but refusing to actually kill him off. Something of note is that he never actually mentions Ace the entire cycle until he gets to the time of his case. Rather than post the case earlier in the day, he waits until the last few hours of the cycle at a point where Ace has no way to respond. On March 21 2013 13:15 Mr. Wiggles wrote: I said it before... Wiggles case reads nice and all but if ace is scum.. hopless1der is scum. I want to see why hopeless1der is scum.. cos id ont recall anyone having him as a scum read. Why do I have to do that? Regardless of how hopeless1der played, I read Ace as scum based on his own play since he replaced in the game. If I go back and look at Hopeless1der, I'm just going to end up with an analysis riddled with confirmation bias anyways because I already think Ace is scum. I don't see how it's useful to my case against Ace.[/QUOTE] This should set off plenty of flags for people. Hopeless made up 50% of the posts made by the duo, but he is absolutely ignored in the analysis. In his response, he downplays the importance of his filter and states that it would only be ruined by confirmation bias. It makes no sense to take a look at half of the picture and then decide you've already made up your mind so you're not interested in the second half. My other two strongest scum reads right now are goodkarma and TranceStorm. While Wiggles needs to be lynched, we should still pressure these two individuals so we have something to go by going into day four. I'll write up a case for them this weekend. Mafia + March Madness = No free time for Kita  Go Orange ^_^ | ||
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DoctorHelvetica
United States15034 Posts
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Coagulation
United States9633 Posts
On March 22 2013 09:49 DoctorHelvetica wrote: mocsta has been modkilled. rofl | ||
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Coagulation
United States9633 Posts
We gonna have the VE haters in one corner with their feathers all ruffled about boatloads of third party setup speculation and wifom. they think VE is scum or third party or some magical mirror minion or some shit and anyone that isnt helping them lynch his shit is clearly a bad guy. Then we gonna have the "We want wiggles head on a stake" crowd attacking the VE haters not because they give a fuck about VE but because they are out for mr wiggles blood. Inside this little omgus orgy of distrust and chaos will be what I like to call the eye of the storm. VE and BH locked in a shit slinging contest in a tunnel so deep there will never be light at the end. We will have 4-5 lurkers who will pop in mention some random lynch candidate and then scurry away while the ve/wiggles bandwagons collide into a giant clusterfuck of everyone is scum and when the derp levels of town reach critical mass we all panic and split our votes about 8 ways to Sunday and give scum a premium lynch selection on platter. Someone throws a bullshit half ass case out at last minute and town panics because VE/WIGGLES wont be lynched and the votes up for grabs and everyone consolidates on it to "prevent a mis lynch before its too late" Random townie that no one even expected to be lynched will be lynched at end of day and everyone will stand around confused and disgruntled and act like its everyone else fault but theirs. and we will have absolutely no information at all gained from any of this because all we did was fight over stupid shit that VE said or how wiggles steam rolled ace who wasnt even here to defend himself while he was knee deep in lynch votes ( yeah did you guys really do that?) | ||
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DoctorHelvetica
United States15034 Posts
Day 3 On this day, many of my peers did not return to the circle. The title cards were collected from their seats and read aloud, as was custom. Vivax the Sword You are the Sword. Once in the game, after night one, you may choose to kill a player at night. If your kill fails for any reason, you will get another chance to use it the next night. Vote wisely. GoodKarma the Priest You are the Priest. Each night you may PM the mod the name of a player to place in your locket. That player can not be killed by the first kill attempt that night. Sciberbia the Fool You are the Fool. You have no special powers. Vote wisely. Wade Fell the Messenger You are The Messenger. The loyal messenger of this family, you have installed mail chutes in peoples rooms allowing for instant written communication. All the better to confuse and deceive the cursed. You can mason with one player each cycle. You can not mason with the same player twice. In the discordant and endless song of my allies being read off the daily obituary, one note rang out at the end triumphantly, reminding me that indeed victory was within reach. Renewed, I sat at the end of the chair with my confidence intact. | ||
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Wade Fell
United States501 Posts
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DoctorHelvetica
United States15034 Posts
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TestSubject893
United States774 Posts
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Coagulation
United States9633 Posts
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TestSubject893
United States774 Posts
My role is just a plain old night vigi, other than the fact that I was not allowed to shoot night 1. I think its best if I keep the name of my role and the number of shots I have remaining to myself for now. I'm going back to sleep now, its 3 am here. | ||
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DarthPunk
Australia10847 Posts
On March 22 2013 15:58 TestSubject893 wrote: Well I killed BH. You're welcome. My role is just a plain old night vigi, other than the fact that I was not allowed to shoot night 1. I think its best if I keep the name of my role and the number of shots I have remaining to myself for now. I'm going back to sleep now, its 3 am here. nice shot. | ||
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DoYouHas
United States1140 Posts
I think I have greatly narrowed the number of suspects. -Testsubject: Claimed the vigi hit on BH, no reason to disbelieve. Town. -VE - At this point he is as close to guaranteed not-mafia as we are ever going to get, town or 3p. -Zarepath - Very likely to be town. The quality of his posts has been going up as the game progresses and I just don't see how scum zarepath posts this about me. -WoS & TPS: I believe WoS's claim, but even if I didn't I would take him off the table for today's lynch because of it. Also, TPS seems cleared both by WoS's check and the fact that he was BH's first choice of tunnel. -kitaman27: Seems quite townie to me. I don't know if anybody would disagree with me on this point. -layabout: Similar to kita in my mind, if a little less verbose, town or 3p. -Coag and Kenpachi: I read both as town, possible 3p. It should be noted that in my mind the lynching objectives of the 3p, if it exists, should be the same as the towns, given how horrendously fast we are losing this. Because of this I consider VE off the table for today. That is 10/17 people who's opinion I think I can trust (including my own). This narrows my field of search to just 7 names: DP, Trance, glurio, CC, geript, Ryu, and Wiggles. Some of which I find scummy, some of which I am null on currently, and some of which I just haven't looked into enough. And no, I'm not going to say which is which. I've shot myself in the foot using this kind of reasoning before when I thought I had the whole scumteam pegged. But really I was 2/4, and in my attempts to convict them all I alienated the 2 townies in the group, lost their votes and had the lynch manipulated to the wrong target. If you disagree strongly with the people in either of these groups, I want to hear it. But if I am not completely out of touch with this game, and I correctly identified most of the townies, and those same townies also see it this way, we just created a majority, so long as we can actually work together to pick the best lynch candidate. Remember, if you are in my second group, I'm not calling you scum yet, and clearly I would be wrong about at least 3 of you. I want your comments too. I want to refine this list of reads until scum have nowhere left to hide. Hopefully I will be able to sleep now that I have gotten this out of my head. Gnight. | ||
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glurio
Germany597 Posts
I looked through WFs early filter: This interaction looks like scum communicating with scum. (Wiggles and WF) + Show Spoiler + On March 17 2013 11:06 Wade Fell wrote: He stopped posting 2 hours before the first vote on GK went down, but it's been like 18 hours since then. Where is he? He still hasn't weighed in on Geript either, and Geript was under pressure while he was posting in thread. If he comes back, says he's been gone for 18 hours like grooming a chicken or whatever and he has serious thoughts to give, then I may rethink things. But as it stands, simply straight-up lurking and not posting is NOT a defense for his actions. On March 17 2013 11:06 Mr. Wiggles wrote: I actually kind of get the feeling that Peashooter's just new, but like Kita was saying, and you're implying, if he's a smurf that goes out the window, because he could just be pretending to be new while being experienced. I think I need to wait for him to post some more to get a more solid read. On March 17 2013 11:07 Wade Fell wrote: Will your thoughts on him be the same if he's gone for another 6 hours, wiggles? What if he's gone for the rest of the day? On March 17 2013 11:07 Wade Fell wrote: I too am highly interested in how he will respond to my case and wat's taken place in town since his "departure" but he is almost certainly a smurf, since the account was created yesterday. On March 17 2013 11:07 Mr. Wiggles wrote: I have someone else in mind for the lynch, and then a vig can just get rid of him if possible. He has to post sometime. To me this piece of conversation does not look natural at all. It looks to me as if both are treading around very carefully, which is quite unlike WF. On top of that all the other points already raised on wiggles by other people. Sadly his filter doesn't give too much. He was always hardcore tunneling either TPS, TestSubject or VE basically the whole game. I will probably read it again when i'm less tired. I also looked through Vivax's filter, he most likely hit GK with his shot. I could find no breadcrumbs to a sciberia hit, while GK was quite often the focus of his attention. Vivax's scumreads were: zarepath, cosmicomics, Wade Fell, goodkarma, DYH, Trancestorm Upon reading on his last few posts his focus at that moment was CC, GK and DYH. In sciberias filter we can find a strong scumread on CC + Show Spoiler + On March 21 2013 13:14 sciberbia wrote: OK we really need to consolidate. I have no idea what the votecount is at, but I'd imagine there are still several votes on VE and Wiggles. For those of us who don't like those two candidates, we need a candidate to consolidate on. ace/GK/testsubject have all been thrown out there, but there are disagreements. Personally, I'm nullish on all 3. You guys have given meta reads on all 3 that I could choose to trust in, but as far as in-thread evidence, I'm nullish. Is ANYONE in the thread right now not at least leaning scum on cosmicomics? Look at how he goes about scum hunting D1: First of all, he doesn't do any scuhunting when he originally enters the thread. Then, we he was ASKED about DP, he sheeped onto an IMO shitty case and voted him. Respond to question and get your vote down. Two birds with 1 stone amirite. Then, he unvotes DP when the wagon loses steam with almost nonexistant reasoning for thinking DP isn't scum anymore: He was continually saying how DP was scum and lying about some stupid shit at the start of the game. But now suddenly DP is stubborn and townie. And VE's case wasn't even the reason CC was voting DP in the first place. VE posted his case after CC voted DP twice. This post scummy as mentioned by others. Finally, on D2, CC's big contribution was a massive case on VE. And VE has been the focus of discussion all day. But where is CC? Not here talking about. I pose my question again: Is anyone not at least leaning scum on CC I think that is a very important quality in a consolidation candidate. So after reading this i would go after the following people in this order: cosmicomics: Both Vivax and sciberia were suspicious of him at the end of the night. High likelihood of being scum. wiggles: weird interaction with Wade Fell, top that with all the cases already against him and we got ourselves a very scummy looking wiggles TranceStorm: + Show Spoiler + On March 19 2013 22:15 TranceStorm wrote: Hmm. Some thoughts. I'm inclined to trust Wade Hand. Like scib had said earlier, it would be much safer for a scum mason to simply a) not mason anyone or b) pretend to mason one of his teammates due to the flip of GM. As per his case on TPS, I've become more and more convinced after reading through TPS' justifications for voting for GM. It is interesting to note that TPS spends more time talking about how he thinks zarepath is scummy. Personally, I think that TPS 'let it play out' over the GM situation so that he couldn't be nailed over strongly leading the GM lynch as he tried to do with Coag. I'll vote for TPS right now. My opinion on DoYouHas has retracted somewhat. I don't think he's been 'attaching himself to arguments' as I had said earlier anymore. Also, Wiggo is still super-scummy in my eyes. His behavior during the GM lynch was really bizarre, but the single post I had highlighted earlier isn't sufficient to make me vote for him. I want to see his analysis today. DYH: vivax was after him so he has reasons to kill vivax, but i'm not quite convinced here and actually had a strong town read on him. My top scumread right now is cosmicomics. I don't think DYH is scum but he should be questioned further. I don't think TranceStorm AND wiggles are scum. But wiggles looks scummier right now. | ||
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glurio
Germany597 Posts
##Vote: cosmicomics | ||
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zarepath
United States1626 Posts
I assume that GoodKarma protected WoS before dying, in which case I don't think we can rely on another night out of WoS, especially if mafia/3rd parties have 3 KP now instead of 2. I am probably going to sheep you on cosmicomics, glurio, but let me give him another read this morning first. | ||
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zarepath
United States1626 Posts
Also, too bad about Mocsta. | ||
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