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So read through BKE..
damn that was short. I think the host might have more posts than him... lol
I compared the way BKE/Clarity handled their almost modkill activity levels
(1) BKE
On January 22 2013 09:57 BroodKingEXE wrote:Show nested quote +On January 22 2013 09:56 DearestSnot wrote:On January 22 2013 09:54 BroodKingEXE wrote:
My bad guys something came up, so I had to take care of it
Vote:BroodKingEXE since I have no clue what is going on. fuck you too and all the lurkers as well jesus why do you guys sign up for these games? EVERY GAME I see you, you do this. I'm doing you guys a favour, Modkills are way worse.
(2) Clarity
On January 24 2013 10:59 Clarity_nl wrote:
As far as I'm aware I have not been replaced yet, I apologize to everyone in this game.
Had some irl trouble and I'm currently not willing to read 70 pages of mafia so I hope I get replaced soon. If I somehow missed it... errr, sorry for that too.
Have fun all.
Even though this was posted after modkill the apology feels genuine... contrast this to BKE who just says "ohh guys my bad" thats an "I dont give a fuck" attitude.
Now of course, being only IDAF does not imply scum... but it is typically scum who have these attitudes.
Lets see if he vindicates this attitude in his subsequent posts.
-
On January 22 2013 10:01 BroodKingEXE wrote:
Based on a filter read of the top canidates I liked austin the best. I think he is a person most people would listen too, Toad/Chez/and yourself are just too controversial.
Comments on his preferred candidates... FT was already a strong contender at this point in time is not mentioned.
Contrast this to when prplhz is confirmed scum due to lynch.
On January 22 2013 10:13 BroodKingEXE wrote:
Nice job FT.
Its just a token acknowledge.. no excitement or care.. again more IDAF attitude
- Then there is his contribution to scum hunting.
On January 22 2013 17:12 BroodKingEXE wrote:As of my reads now I see Vivax and Annul as scum. Vivax: I see mayor post as null in itself, but his follow up was quite strange. It never seemed as if he wanted to take the position, and his scumhunting (possibly to give him credibility in the election) was very forced. If you read the questions that he asked they are basically the same questions that he asks to each person. Show nested quote +On January 20 2013 20:26 Vivax wrote:
Allow me to correct: Toad should consolidate, Axle should just learn to format his posts properly. Gonzaw is also one of those able to produce hurricanes of text.
mkfuba07 /confirm'd but didn't post anything since Daypost. Other "lurkers" didn't /confirm at all.
@ mkfuba07
Why so silent?Who do you think is scum?Who would you elect?
@ Djodref
Hello Djodref.
You have been asking a lot of questions lately.
May I beg for you to answer mine first?
What do you think of JieXian?
Who would you vote for Mayor right now?
Any tentative scumreads?
This means that he wasn't looking for scum though their filters, but rather was trying to look like he was scumhunting by asking questions. The fact that he doesn't follow up on any of the questions is even more concerting, wouldn't a townie much less a mayoral candidate be more meticulous about his scumhunting? Letting questions drift into the abyss is something scum would do. Annul is more of a gut read for me. He is tunneling and acting pretty oblivious to things, which strikes me as scummy since he is a more experienced player.
I have a few problems with this... annul and vivax were already under scrutiny at this point in time (annul was even listed as Toad #1 or #2 scum target).. if you break the BKE content down.
Vivax is just a summary of his actions, there is no thought applied to disect motives; its purely a PBPA of his actions.
THen teh read on annul is purely "gut feeling" with nothing to substantiate.
Again more IDAF attitude.. im finding this repetitive behaviour now indicating scum. Especially due to the cases he brought forward... You could argue that even oats is trying harder than this to create links.
- Last post.. the vote
On January 24 2013 08:29 BroodKingEXE wrote:
Annul is obvscum, at the moment he isn't doing anything, but putting out weak scum reads and useless setup speculation. His posting style is that of a scum who knows he's in a bad spot. He says his D1 was non-existant, but I dont see a town directed change out of him.
##Vote: Annul
You could argue its a sheep vote; but then he has attempted to justify the vote which typically a sheep voter will NOT do... so if we treat this as a genuine vote, the reasoning again has no detailed insight, its just a summary of actions (like he did with Vivax)
More IDAF attitude.
Conclusion
BKE has an extremely low post count, but it is clearly evident he doesnt care about this game... The question is bored VT or scum.
It hink even a bored VT has incentive to provide insight on reads, or just sheep votes blatantly.
BKE does neither. When he does provide a reads, its just a Play by Play summary of actions; and when he votes, he provides very very weak justifications (again just actions).. This really does negate a bored VT attitude.
I am fully comfortable with BKE as my vote this game.
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Part 2 - Some Gonzaw-related finds
(1) debears had a lot of interaction with Gonzaw at the start of today. Questions and posts on him. + Show Spoiler +On January 23 2013 10:41 debears wrote:Show nested quote +On January 23 2013 10:36 gonzaw wrote:
Kind of saw this coming to be honest (except the sandro kill).
Unless some of them were a vig shot.
Oats, you seem to be active, why haven't you addressed my response to your "case"?
Five, could have scum killed you+Toad last night if both debears+Oats were scum and "subbed in"? Wait, hold on, you saw both djo and jiexian being nked by scum over you and Austin?????? Direct question, shortly after Gonzaw says he saw the NKs coming On January 23 2013 11:37 debears wrote:
5touch
How does town Gonzaw usually go after scumreads?
Does he try to convince others that the person is scum? Or does he try to convince the person that they are scum? Questioning other players about Gonzaw's meta (He repeats the question to Bugs after Bugs says he could go for a Gonzaw lynch) On January 23 2013 15:17 debears wrote:Ok. WBG I'll give you something to look at for Gonzaw. I htink the bottom stuff in red is the most pertaining to why I believe he is scum What is mafia trying to accomplish d1 with election 1) elect one of their own as mayor/sheriff 2) Trying to elect mayor who will get the first lynch wrong 3) Have someone on the correct mayor for town cred Gonzaw- - slight scum Up for election - didn't push it hard Didn't want to budge too fast on 5touch as mayor -----> didn't seem to care for trying to get mayor over 5No comment on prplhz----> Don't agree with prplhz lynch Heavy pressure on sandro early Wanted to lynch stutters and Oats and Clarity -spread out btw those 4. Big discrepancy in treatment btw prplhz and sandro treatment for being inactive d1Votes himself Really wanted to convince 5touch to lynch Oats over prplhz when realized he won't be mayor
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=17590733
Thought stutters was scum and should be lynched, yet needs to explain himself to stutters so in depth? With a tone of treating Oats as town?
Look at post before "stutters should be lynched"
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=17599229
Does it again. Then names Oats first in the scum team
Tries to convince Oats that Oats is scum. Not really trying to convince others and show scum motivation
Went and looked at filter, linked to a few posts, but based on his summary of Gonzaw's filter it does look like he read through things. (Note - debears follows the above post with a post noting that "stutters" in red should be replaced by "oats"). On January 24 2013 01:11 debears wrote:Vivax, in one night you do a complete 180 on two reads for no reason whatsoever + Show Spoiler +On January 22 2013 01:23 Vivax wrote:
I don't care if the elected roles are smurf, they have to be vets, and they have to be trustworthy.
Gonzaw isn't trustworthy for shoveling shit at me for being absent after my candidacy like JX did + trying to be overly politically correct to everyone.
austin isn't trustworthy for using artificial reasons to defend JX and picking stutters as lynch candidate.
Austin used the argument: "Slight paranoia is townie" cause he wrote something about a Toad jester. Austin clearly didn't give a shit about JXs alignment from the start. That's my interpretation. FT already pointed out that this was a mistake.
Seriously, stay the fuck away from gonzaw and austin. I'd rather have Chezinu mayor than these two. On January 21 2013 09:03 Vivax wrote:
## Vote Sandroba
If he's town, he won't be killed and be of great use.
If he's scum, he won't be able to hide it for long in that position.
Don't choose based on some mood. Even if sandro doesn't want it, a good town should want him in that position.
I don't like austin, I don't like gonzaw. Clarity didn't post his reads and he's usually not the guy who wants to take the lead. Voting Chezinu, are you fucking kidding me?Oatsmaster? Nah. On January 22 2013 01:55 Vivax wrote:
FT for mayor, that's out of discussion. Screw austin and gonzaw, they have to stay in put positions.
Just make me his second hand and this town is set for victory. On January 22 2013 06:46 Vivax wrote:
You all (debears, mkfuba, austin) must be really super-convinced that austin and JX are town if you flak me like that for a tentative scum read.
What exactly do you want me to do? Isn't it electing austin? To lynch whom? Stutters for playing like I know him from D1? No thanks.
Look, I find people suspicious who shovelled shit at me for my absence.
I find people super suspicious who instead of posting their reasoning about it (like gonzaw did=semi-admitting that it wasn't a good point and in the end null cause I was sleeping)
write that they had a reason to do so cause of some outer reason that has nothing to do with their thinking (the US tag), which then turns out to be wrong.
When called out for it, they don't answer.
Tell me, wouldn't you suspect scum behind it? You seem to be really convinced that he is town. On January 23 2013 20:33 Vivax wrote:
Use something in your argumentation to say that you think gonzaw and annul are scum besides this mayor thing please.
You say: "I think one and only one is scum among the mayor candidates, gonzaw and annul are probably scum cause everyone else I have a town read on." On January 23 2013 23:07 Vivax wrote:
[22.01.2013 19:17:49] Erik: yeah I agree
[22.01.2013 19:17:56] Erik: I'd like annul lynch the most
[22.01.2013 19:18:04] Erik: and a bunch oats has done recently looks townisch
[22.01.2013 19:18:07] Erik: *townish
[22.01.2013 19:18:18] Erik: I really don't see him pushing gonzaw out of all the people if he's mafia
Strange things to say considering your latest insecurity about who to lynch first between annul and gonzaw when asked.
Care to tell us why Oats is town for pushing gonzaw?
[22.01.2013 19:28:09] Erik: the way it's worded I can't jail before n2...
[22.01.2013 19:28:11] Erik: "You are able to PM me during the day with a player to be incarcerated that night."
[22.01.2013 19:28:27] Erik: if I have to pm him during the day I can't pm him before d2 for the n2 protections
What did BC respond to this?
Although he probably let Toad jail nonetheless. So you thought Gonzaw was scum all day 1 and suddenly change your viewpoint and think he's town for no reason? And you suddenly get on everyone's case about voting gonzaw? + Show Spoiler +On January 21 2013 22:20 Vivax wrote:
@ Yamato
Dude, if you are town (which I kinda doubt cause you promised self-improvement last time I saw you somewhere else):
You have 4 pages of filter of which a lot of posts are aggressive, low content spam.
You aren't achieving anything but calling candidates bad without pushing your own preferences.
Your posts aren't consolidated, and you disregard the opinions of 4 vets. In light of your overconfidence you are aware of you should actually use them properly.
@ debears
Me and Toad aren't the scum you're looking for. Yamato might be but it's still early. Djo is..an interesting choice.
I like your play so far. Don't underestimate me in this game though, I'm asking you to vote me into a seat.
@ gonzaw
There are questions directed at you in my filter that you still have to answer.
I don't care if you think I'm town, I'm not voting for you. And I know you won't be voting for me.
@ Toad
I really appreciate your contributions in the latest pages that appeared since I posted last. Knowing that you support me and FT, I can trust into you being working for town.
I would appreciate however if you didn't refer to me as stupid or idiot.
You never know who's sitting behind the keyboard, and you don't take into account how fast I can improve.
I think my strategies and reads have improved a lot lately. I don't have as much experience as others in this forum, don't draw conclusions about my intelligence or ability to learn then.
______________________________________________________________________________________________________
Regarding the discussion about my candidacy post: It was a good way to waste time in the last pages.
If you want to know, I started writing that post after I got my role pm.
But I can't prove it and it doesn't even matter. Look at my other play.
How I push my candidacy doesn't matter either. You know I want to be elected, and when I don't constantly spam that it doesn't mean I don't want it any more.
I pressured JX, Djo, gonzaw and yamato into giving out information in a way that breaks their usual posting style. Specific information.
I managed to get yamato very worked up to the point where he started replying in a subjectively quite scummy way.
Same goes for JX who replied to me with rather big delays, compared to the content he posted in that long time he needed to make the posts.
I am working pro-information, and I'm not sticking endlessly to the same target. I'm active, and I post transparently. Although I'm not giving you out all my reads, yet.
You will absolutely not regret me being elected. On January 21 2013 22:20 Vivax wrote:
@ Yamato
Dude, if you are town (which I kinda doubt cause you promised self-improvement last time I saw you somewhere else):
You have 4 pages of filter of which a lot of posts are aggressive, low content spam.
You aren't achieving anything but calling candidates bad without pushing your own preferences.
Your posts aren't consolidated, and you disregard the opinions of 4 vets. In light of your overconfidence you are aware of you should actually use them properly.
@ debears
Me and Toad aren't the scum you're looking for. Yamato might be but it's still early. Djo is..an interesting choice.
I like your play so far. Don't underestimate me in this game though, I'm asking you to vote me into a seat.
@ gonzaw
There are questions directed at you in my filter that you still have to answer.
I don't care if you think I'm town, I'm not voting for you. And I know you won't be voting for me.
@ Toad
I really appreciate your contributions in the latest pages that appeared since I posted last. Knowing that you support me and FT, I can trust into you being working for town.
I would appreciate however if you didn't refer to me as stupid or idiot.
You never know who's sitting behind the keyboard, and you don't take into account how fast I can improve.
I think my strategies and reads have improved a lot lately. I don't have as much experience as others in this forum, don't draw conclusions about my intelligence or ability to learn then.
______________________________________________________________________________________________________
Regarding the discussion about my candidacy post: It was a good way to waste time in the last pages.
If you want to know, I started writing that post after I got my role pm.
But I can't prove it and it doesn't even matter. Look at my other play.
How I push my candidacy doesn't matter either. You know I want to be elected, and when I don't constantly spam that it doesn't mean I don't want it any more.
I pressured JX, Djo, gonzaw and yamato into giving out information in a way that breaks their usual posting style. Specific information.
I managed to get yamato very worked up to the point where he started replying in a subjectively quite scummy way.
Same goes for JX who replied to me with rather big delays, compared to the content he posted in that long time he needed to make the posts.
I am working pro-information, and I'm not sticking endlessly to the same target. I'm active, and I post transparently. Although I'm not giving you out all my reads, yet.
You will absolutely not regret me being elected. On January 21 2013 23:06 Vivax wrote:@ YamatoThen I assume, since me and Toad are probably not going to get lynched today, that you will vote for the candidate that lynches Djo? @ Oatsmaster
Would you support me/Toad/Sandro as elected role? If FT stops wanting to lynch you, will you support him? ______________________________________________________________________________________________________ After looking at his meta, I support a prplhz lynch as well. I especially looked at his town meta: Looney lynching - town→ More outspoken, more active, doesn't act as much as like he's not giving fuck as he does in this game. Rockband Mini - town→ Shares reads very early, opposes random lynching (here he asks for Chez lynch immediately). Doesn't act like he doesn't give a fuck (as here). Significantly becomes more active when his mislynch is gaining steam. He posts a lot with not much time difference between the posts. On January 22 2013 06:22 Vivax wrote:
Toad, I think it's of vital importance that austin doesn't get a seat. If there is no extra supporter to elect you Chezinu is my next favourite over austin. On January 22 2013 07:00 Vivax wrote:Chez you made me laugh a good portion. I'm voting Toad if we can manage to get him into that position though. Sorry bro  . On January 22 2013 10:01 Vivax wrote:
GET TOAD ELECTED FFS Notes that Vivax has changed stances on Gonzaw
Anyway, there are further posts after that concerning Gonzaw, questioning Gonzaw, etc. But basically, just searching for stuff related to Gonzaw turned up a LOT of debears stuff today. There's a chance that he was inactive most of D1, feels all scumguilty, and latches on to this subject to pursue and look active in D2. But it looks like legitimate activity, legitimate interest in a topic. He doesn't just say "Gonzaw scummy," he posts some reasoning and a case-ish thing. He doesn't just do that, he's also asking vets for how Gonzaw plays, and later asks Gonzaw for examples of specific play. It looks very much like a legitimate suspicion, and one that isn't being pushed for show.
I find debears townier based on that whole set of posts. It looks like he's legitimately trying to figure out Gonzaw, not just looking active as mafia and not ... building a case in the way that mafia would?
(2) THIS POST.
I have not done a full reread of Mocsta. But this post without any context looked BAD to me. In the middle of all the Gonzaw stuff, this post just stuck out. Context: Vivax had just posted - + Show Spoiler +On January 23 2013 22:45 Vivax wrote:
@ Mocsta
You asked me a question, why so disinterested now?
What's your take on Toad, gonzaw, yamato and annul?
You think I'm town?
On January 23 2013 23:12 Mocsta wrote:Hi Vivax. Not disinterested, just IRL stuff.. these are the thoughts in my head without reading filters.. take it as you want.. im more a gut feeling player anyways (which is prob why my reads are so fucked) Toad: Hes probably town for me; when he speaks freely/quickly I find him a bit erratic but its prob more to do with frustration. But every once in a while he says something that just makes me want to cast doubt. Regardless, if I was to judge his actions overall, off a whim, I think town motives. Gonzaw: I was about to start reading his filter, but since you asked, my impressions as of now are: made a good impression on me at first, and was one of the only vets responding to me.. as FT came about, he has really faded. AND IIRC he hasnt followed up on his promises (reads etc). My other issue with Gonzaw is association with prplhz... b4 prplhz had heat on him, Gonzaw was one of the ppl he was soft "buddying" to. ATM null, need to confirm if the (lack of) follow ups are correct. Yamato: hes got a pretty hot-head.. I *Assume* as scum would be hard for him to control the emotion.. so far he has swapped gears quite a lot; has tried to contribute here and there; but i dont think he ever followed up on u.. perhaps due to Toads insistence.. i would say leaning town. Annul: I haven't paid attention to him Day1, just the interplay between him and bugs today.. even with bugs persistence, i thought his ragequit was over the top; have to read the filter, but off that ragequit i would say leaning scum. Vivax: No fucking idea.. somethings you do just put so much public attention in my head only a VT would do that.. but then, some of the your actions just dont agree with me so I think scum.. but thats a gut feeling and prob just means i don't (personally) like your style.. one thing i learnt was, if a guy is really pissing you off, hes prob town... so based on that heuristic, i will say town  Grush: Even though you didnt ask, and i dont want to sound like im tunneling. I really dont like whats hes doing. Hes ignored my pressure (what ever) but coming in with the yamato mason stuff was just foreplay..im still waiting for the good stuff.. I cant even see a reason to have masoned yamato anyways, the whole thing is as odd as the NKs .. i mean.. djo was making some sense at the end.. but fuckn JX? Im going to read Annul/Gonzaw filter now, and hopefully dont fall asleep. I find it mildly odd that a small question from Vivax prompts such an enormous response, but whatever. I just...don't like the actual reads as they're presented - + Show Spoiler +Toad is probably town, because of generic townie heuristic "speaks freely/quickly." But sometimes he says things that "make [mocsta] want to case doubt. Actions overall, "off a whim," town motives. Toad is generic townie words, but sometimes there are specifics that make mocsta find him scummy, but "overall" toad is town. I don't get that. I like animals, but not if they have wings and make honey, but overall I like bees because they are animals. It's not that dumb, not that specific, but those statements seem similar to me, it (teehee) bugs me.
Gonzaw. Off the top of mocsta's head, Gonzaw made a good impression, but then faded, hasn't followed up on promises, THEN bolded bit on a connection with prplhz. "ATM null." Gonzaw made a good impression, but then faded and didn't follow up on promises, and also has a weird connection with a dude who flipped scum --> NULL. Again, I don't get where the ultimate conclusion comes from, given those other comments setting it up.
Yamato. Swapped gears a lot, tried to contribute, but didn't follow up on Vivax about something. "leaning town." Alright, perfectly fine with that conclusion.
Annul. Didn't pay attention to annul D1. Just looked at the annul/bugs stuff today. Ragequit over the top and scummy. No real problem with those comments, but they're super generic.
Then BONUS reads on Vivax and Grush. But the read on Vivax is ... a repeat of a lot of comments on Vivax, he's all over the place and doing a bunch of nonsense and pissing people off, so probably town. Grush is...LOOK AT THAT GRUSH READ. Don't like what he's doing, ignoring mocsta's pressure. Then random comment about the NKs...
The comments on people are are actually REALLY at issue -- Toad, Gonzaw, to a lesser extent Annul, just feel weak. Those are the ones that are especially empty or confusing. The yamato comments make sense, the vivax comments make sense, but those are the players that are less important to this game overall at that point. Gonzaw and Annul have been lynch options today. Toad is sheriff, mason, has been active today and generally putting a bunch of stuff into thread. But those are the players on whom the reads are the weakest. Then there's the "Oh yeah, I'm so helpful and including an extra read on Grush!" that tails off into commentary on the NKs as part of the grush-read...which I don't understand at all.
The post just sticks out as being oddly responsive to Vivax + has weird reads on the people that have been visible enough to give clear reads + has clear reads on the other folks. I need to read the rest of his stuff, because maybe it's just an odd post, but...it stuck out.
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WBG
im at work, so will look into Gonzaw & austinmcc prob when I get home, so like 10-12hrs time.
The reason im looking into austin is due to the theory of one vet being a mayor candidate.
I have to read gonzaw in detail but his posts about 5-6hours IIRC read genuine to me, I felt like it flowed and was the ramblings/musings of someone speaking their mind in haste... so without a detailed read i still get a townie vibe from him. So I think that leaves Austin??
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we have all of this talk about how the scum must've had a mayoral candidate, but everyone keeps neglecting Chezinu.
Forget Austin, he's probably not scum.
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On January 24 2013 10:52 DearestSnot wrote:
ok, here's the thing.
I hesitated earlier to use this argument, but I think it's strong. First suppose Oats is scum.
Because he's a BG, we know that if he's alive and FT or Toad die then Oats is outted. Thus at any point in the game we can safely lynch Oats if FT or Toad die. We only have a problem if we lynch a multitude of townies while FT and Toad survive and get into a multiple scum lylo situation. I don't see that as being very likely. If Oats is scum, mafia have to sacrifice one of their own in order to kill Toad or FT. As long as FT/Toad are alive we have a massive advantage. We have a jailer who can stop mafia KP in two different ways and a triple voter who is almost certainly town.
If Oats is town, and we lynch him, then tonight debears and FT or Toad will be dead, almost certainly. We basically simply shoot ourselves in the foot for no gain.
Even if Oats is mafia, we don't gain much by lynching him. He's a BG, if scum want to win the game in lylo they have to at some point out Oats. They can't feasibly win at lylo with FT alive because FT has 3 votes.
So, either Oats is mafia and we force mafia to out him in order to kill two of our best townies, or Oats is town and we leave FT and Toad protected until oats/debears get shot. The mafia team in either position is basically fucked as long as we can catch the remaining members.
So why focus on Oats? I don't see the rationale behind this right now. I don't know that I like this argument when I feel like we're "ahead." For some reason I'm just hesitant to get behind this 100%.
There's some merit to not rolling the dice and running the risk of mislynching Oats, but...if people feel best with an oats lynch, he should be the lynch. We lynched scum D1, haven't lost any power roles, had some odd NKs that left some strong players alive...town is ahead this game (barring some real nice scum play from FT or toad). I don't think it's worth taking the safest route possible so long as we're reasonably sure on oats.
Mafia chose roles. Mafia chose bodyguards IF they installed any bodyguards. To some extent, it would make sense to put the stronger-roled folk in the role of bodyguard (this is...muddy with the argument that he'd get made a bodyguard in order to buy him a turn/couple turns to live, they kind of run against each other). In either case though, mafia wanted to take scumoats and make him a bg to help him live. Mafia wants that. I don't want what mafia wants.
Like...it's not "focus on oats" as a rationale. It's "find scum" and oats just happens to look scummy. I'd rather lynch a scummy dude than try to get fancy when we're in a good spot.
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As an addendum, FT has shown good reads/judgment from what we have so far. So keeping him alive and having the extra votes would be nice.
But the extra votes are only good if they're on scum. I haven't seen someone play a game in which they ONLY voted scum, I don't think. So we can expect that, at some points, the extra mayoral votes won't harm scum, and might HELP them if FT is just wrong about a certain read.
If FT is fallible, the mayoral votes have to get discounted somewhat. They're good, but I don't feel like we have to adjust our overall play in order to preserve them 100%.
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Austin
@ http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=393344¤tpage=97#1922
I think your overcomplicating things, the posts read as I said.
Vivax was pushing me for commentary (IIRC multiple times) so I gave him my impressions off-the-cuff.
To you: Gonzaw, Annul and Toad may have been central to the thread and been your focus. But they weren’t to me. My focus has been mainly on Oats/Grush, and just keeping up with the thread in general.
I actually thought what I said about Vivax was solid.. i.e. usually if a guy is repeatedly pissing you off he is town.. scum generally cant afford to agitate people that much, survival is easier if you are forgotten. Im not sure why you seem to disagree with this?
As for your other comments,
Toad Don’t see how you are misinterpreting this? I find his fast-posting style coupled with direction he giving to be indicative of town. Everyone once in a while he says something that just makes me facepalm. So I am leaning town instead of probably town.. thought this was clear?
Gonzaw Again. Don’t see how you are misinterpreting? I like his flow when he writes. Gives me a good feeling without any analysis. I said NULL, because I need to do an analysis of the actions to confirm motivations. Gut feeling isn’t enough.
Your welcome to read my filter and ask me more questions, but I really think your over-reading this specific post. I even stated at the start of it that it would be off the cuff?
And I feel like your targeting me with this post because my priority filter reads do not align with yours. I don’t think that is indicative of alignment, its indicative of different experiences and thought processes.
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Do you think that I am the most scummy player?
Why austin?
I didnt see any mention of YOUR reasoning why I might be scum in your filter. Other than strategic roles and such which could be said for just about anybody.
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The only player who has made any strong arguments for lynching Oats is FT. Everyone else is simply parroting and spouting nonsense about how they find him scummy when they probably don't even know what the case is to begin with.
The simple fact of the matter is this:
FT is dead if we lynch Oats or if Oats is scum. Either way.
The only way FT and Toad are safe is if we DO NOT lynch Oats. Just think about it.
Is it worth lynching a BG if we're going to lose a jailor and a triple voter for it? Is it worth lynching Oats, who COULD be scum, when we could lynch him at almost any point in the game?
What the hell is the hurry with lynching Oats? If he's town and he's alive, that's a huge benefit for us because he's a BG, he protects our mayor + sheriff and it forces scum to use suboptimal shots to kill them. They cannot take down core players of town without first going through him and debears.
If Oats is scum, in order to kill those players, they have to out Oats anyway!
I find it pretty stupid to lynch Oats today, given that if he is scum he either gets outted in the near future, or if he doesn't get outted, his teammates will die and then he has a snowball's chance in hell of winning anyway, since FT is a triple voter.
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On January 24 2013 12:15 austinmcc wrote:
As an addendum, FT has shown good reads/judgment from what we have so far. So keeping him alive and having the extra votes would be nice.
But the extra votes are only good if they're on scum. I haven't seen someone play a game in which they ONLY voted scum, I don't think. So we can expect that, at some points, the extra mayoral votes won't harm scum, and might HELP them if FT is just wrong about a certain read.
If FT is fallible, the mayoral votes have to get discounted somewhat. They're good, but I don't feel like we have to adjust our overall play in order to preserve them 100%.
what the fuck?
you can't have it both ways! If FT is fallible then you have to doubt his Oats read just like you doubt anything else!
You can't just sheep him and then say that his triple vote is somehow bad. His triple vote gets better the longer we go in this game. If we kill Oats and Oats flips town then we basically cut his life expectancy by a full cycle.
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Think about it, if the BGs work the way I think they work and Oats gets lynched and flips town then there's a strong chance FT is dead TOMORROW.
If Oats is a scum BG FT might be dead at some point anyway, but we still get the triple vote from him and whenever FT/Toad die a scum is a free lynch.
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jesus quad post but I don't give a fuck.
Finally, why lynch someone who is actually here and trying to put forth an effort (far more than what prplhz did) than someone like Chezinu, or BKE, who clearly don't give a fuck about the game?
If we lynch Oats and he flips town we basically lose whatever advantage we gained on day 1 and then some. We lose a town BG and then FT and Toad are vulnerable that same night. We also gain almost no information from the lynch either if he flips town, given that no one is actually formulating their own opinions about him.
Chezinu and BKE lynches are taking resistance despite the fact that they have not done anything. In BKE's case it's actually quite scary because the resistance isn't direct, and people almost universally agree that he's pretty likely to flip scum.
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On January 24 2013 12:18 DearestSnot wrote:
The only player who has made any strong arguments for lynching Oats is FT. Everyone else is simply parroting and spouting nonsense about how they find him scummy when they probably don't even know what the case is to begin with.
The simple fact of the matter is this:
FT is dead if we lynch Oats or if Oats is scum. Either way.
The only way FT and Toad are safe is if we DO NOT lynch Oats. Just think about it.
Is it worth lynching a BG if we're going to lose a jailor and a triple voter for it? Is it worth lynching Oats, who COULD be scum, when we could lynch him at almost any point in the game?
What the hell is the hurry with lynching Oats? If he's town and he's alive, that's a huge benefit for us because he's a BG, he protects our mayor + sheriff and it forces scum to use suboptimal shots to kill them. They cannot take down core players of town without first going through him and debears.
If Oats is scum, in order to kill those players, they have to out Oats anyway!
I find it pretty stupid to lynch Oats today, given that if he is scum he either gets outted in the near future, or if he doesn't get outted, his teammates will die and then he has a snowball's chance in hell of winning anyway, since FT is a triple voter.
(1) I personally find it insulting what you just said. I am very aware of the reasons put forth by FT. I also think I genuinely added further contributions. Considering you did not input (even when asked) I am not surprised you throw me into the sheeping category.
(2) I dont know why your repeating this BG stuff over and over again. I already said I agree Austin already said we agree. This is verging on becoming spam now. The point you raised the first time, was raised really clearly and made me realise something I didtn think of prior. Repeating it over and over again isnt changing that fact.
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EBWOP;
On January 24 2013 12:28 Mocsta wrote:
(1) I personally find it insulting what you just said. I am very aware of the reasons put forth by FT. I also think I genuinely added further contributions. Considering you did not input (even when asked) I am *NOW*not surprised you throw me into the sheeping category.
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Mocsta, you're victimizing yourself again..
Repost your 'contributions' for the thread for us to see that you are not sheeping if you care that much then..
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no, Austin is not agreeing and that's the problem.
I am repeating it because I am receiving lukewarm feedback and I think this is really fucking important.
I think we're making a huge mistake if we lynch Oats and if you guys don't understand that, then there's a strong chance today will be a complete wash IMO.
If Oats is indeed scum and we lynch him then whatever, I will eat my words and I will accept that I am stupid dumb retarded, whatever. However I think there are both better lynches today and that most players aren't thinking enough about this lynch.
Also I didn't bother responding to recent questions about Oats because
#1. I've already stated multiple times why I think he is town. The points raised by other players on him are not new and not worth responding to, they'll incite the same feedback I got when I first raised my concerns.
#2 Quite frankly you can judge my probable response simply by how I've been talking about him this entire time and you don't need to ask me about him in the first place. I'd much rather talk about why we should lynch Chez or BKE, but gasp, I'm not getting feedback on Chez either!
That's actually the bigger tragedy IMO. I wanted talk about Chez and I wanted to put this out there to show why I think lynching Oats is such a mistake. I have found in the past that if you are not loud about these types of things (i.e. the Prom lynch in dessert or the prplhz lynch yesterday) then people will not follow or listen to you.
That's actually a lesson I learned as scum but never really truly applied as town because I'm not confident enough as town/I think it's borderline spammy to do, but I actually do think it is effective in forcing people to talk about things they would normally not talk about.
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On January 24 2013 12:15 Mocsta wrote:Austin@ http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=393344¤tpage=97#1922I think your overcomplicating things, the posts read as I said. Vivax was pushing me for commentary (IIRC multiple times) so I gave him my impressions off-the-cuff. To you: Gonzaw, Annul and Toad may have been central to the thread and been your focus. But they weren’t to me. My focus has been mainly on Oats/Grush, and just keeping up with the thread in general. I actually thought what I said about Vivax was solid.. i.e. usually if a guy is repeatedly pissing you off he is town.. scum generally cant afford to agitate people that much, survival is easier if you are forgotten. Im not sure why you seem to disagree with this?As for your other comments, Toad Don’t see how you are misinterpreting this? I find his fast-posting style coupled with direction he giving to be indicative of town. Everyone once in a while he says something that just makes me facepalm. So I am leaning town instead of probably town.. thought this was clear? Gonzaw Again. Don’t see how you are misinterpreting? I like his flow when he writes. Gives me a good feeling without any analysis. I said NULL, because I need to do an analysis of the actions to confirm motivations. Gut feeling isn’t enough. Your welcome to read my filter and ask me more questions, but I really think your over-reading this specific post. I even stated at the start of it that it would be off the cuff? And I feel like your targeting me with this post because my priority filter reads do not align with yours. I don’t think that is indicative of alignment, its indicative of different experiences and thought processes. I'm targeting you with that post just because it stuck out. Maybe it shouldn't have, maybe I can't quite put my finger on it, but just for some reason I ended up pulling that post aside along with the other stuff I found.
I figured I'd vocalize what I was thinking at the time. This response reads entirely reasonable, and I noted that I didn't look you over completely, just saw that post. I'll check your filter tomorrow and ask anything, and you're more than welcome to poke around in mine .
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On January 24 2013 12:34 DearestSnot wrote:
no, Austin is not agreeing and that's the problem.
I am repeating it because I am receiving lukewarm feedback and I think this is really fucking important.
I think we're making a huge mistake if we lynch Oats and if you guys don't understand that, then there's a strong chance today will be a complete wash IMO.
If Oats is indeed scum and we lynch him then whatever, I will eat my words and I will accept that I am stupid dumb retarded, whatever. However I think there are both better lynches today and that most players aren't thinking enough about this lynch.
Also I didn't bother responding to recent questions about Oats because
#1. I've already stated multiple times why I think he is town. The points raised by other players on him are not new and not worth responding to, they'll incite the same feedback I got when I first raised my concerns.
#2 Quite frankly you can judge my probable response simply by how I've been talking about him this entire time and you don't need to ask me about him in the first place. I'd much rather talk about why we should lynch Chez or BKE, but gasp, I'm not getting feedback on Chez either!
That's actually the bigger tragedy IMO. I wanted talk about Chez and I wanted to put this out there to show why I think lynching Oats is such a mistake. I have found in the past that if you are not loud about these types of things (i.e. the Prom lynch in dessert or the prplhz lynch yesterday) then people will not follow or listen to you.
That's actually a lesson I learned as scum but never really truly applied as town because I'm not confident enough as town/I think it's borderline spammy to do, but I actually do think it is effective in forcing people to talk about things they would normally not talk about. I'll also get back to this tomorrow? I'm just "tomorrow guy" this game.
I can understand you harping on this, and you've got legitimate points. Maybe I'm overly focused on the "If oats is scum" side of things and you're focused on the "If oats is town" side of things?
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I'm not focused on either side, because it makes no sense to try to lynch him knowing what we know.
I know that sounds weird, because it sounds like "well what if he's scum, then we should lynch him!" but if you think about it, it's still better to go after someone else who we also think is scum.
It's somewhat counterintuitive but even if it was 50/50, which is a pretty high chance of flipping scum tbh, I'd still say it's more beneficial simply to try to lynch someone else because if he is town we are shooting ourselves in the feet much harder than if we just lynched random guy #12 and he flipped town instead.
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EPT
