EPTCan I please have your take specifically on Gonzaws post regarding the NK deaths.
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=393344&user=237527¤tpage=5
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TL Mafia LIX - Page 99
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Mocsta
Australia9388 Posts
Can I please have your take specifically on Gonzaws post regarding the NK deaths. http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=393344&user=237527¤tpage=5 search "vig" | ||
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Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
On January 24 2013 15:31 debears wrote: I am not comfortable with lynching Gonzaw currently over annul and BKE Upon closer inspection of his town games listed, and a couple of his scum games, I found that his posting style of convincing someone of their scumminess is a trait of his town games. I only looked a little in the scum ones and I didn't see it I didn't see anything in terms of him defending himself against a scumread's accusations in either That would leave me wanting to lynch Gonzaw based on 1) His running for mayor (scum having to have someone run) 2) Him trying to convince 5touch to lynch oats over prplhz I'm still waiting on an answer over whether the mayor/sheriff can be killed in the same night as a bodyguard. If so, then I agree with not lynching Oats. If the mayor/sheriff can't be killed on the same night, we should take that into consideration of lynching oats yeah I'd say gonzaw would be the worst lynch out of those but he's a possibility. It's entirely based ond process of elimination. | ||
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Mocsta
Australia9388 Posts
Is there any discussions that can be had over Chezinu random vote swapping towards the end? (Chez -> Austin -> BKE -> Gonzaw) | ||
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BroodKingEXE
United States829 Posts
On January 23 2013 10:36 gonzaw wrote: Kind of saw this coming to be honest (except the sandro kill). Unless some of them were a vig shot. Oats, you seem to be active, why haven't you addressed my response to your "case"? Five, could have scum killed you+Toad last night if both debears+Oats were scum and "subbed in"? On January 23 2013 10:39 gonzaw wrote: EBWOP: Derp debears already asked that question. Dunno what to think about the BGs. I'd take a guess and say that at least one of those is town, since I doubt scum would have the balls to make 2 scum BGs. I'd say debears is the townie and Oats is the scum. Although meh this works anyway. If Oats/debears is town, then scum have to kill them/him to kill Five/Toad, so maybe they'd even do us a favor killing the townie out of them. | ||
yamato77
11589 Posts
On January 20 2013 19:39 Oatsmaster wrote: Ok, so my plan for voting for the mayor is to vote for a mayor, 1) I think that is town 2) I think that is able to smack down(figure out) the scum. So basically, standerd stuff. So far, Gonzaw has a lot of activity but ima wait and see if its town motivated or scum motivated. I dont like Vivax entrance and subsequent disappearance but I mean its a null tell. He has got to know he would be called out like that. Axle, Please try to make your posts coherent to the people here, if we dont understand you, you will get ignored/lynched/vigged/unlikely nk This post of Oats, along with other things like his willingness to give out reads, his overall activity level, and his fairly unnecessary (if mafia) case on Gonzaw, makes me believe that he is town. The fact that he's continued to pursue his read on Gonzaw today is quite telling to me. When he posted the case at night, I believed he would have done so with the idea that it was cheap town cred to do something like this at night when there was no lynch on the line. However, today I see that he's fairly invested in the idea that Gonzaw is mafia, something that I feel a lot of people are at the moment. Basically, if you think Gonzaw is mafia, Oats is far likelier to be town. Plus, I agree with WBG's logic regarding the BGs, and not lynching them at the moment. Unless you are absolutely certain Oats is mafia, I do not feel like it is worth it to lynch him today. That's my thought on that situation. I think he might be town, and I'm not sold on lynching him yet even if others believe otherwise because he, if town, is valuable protection for our elected roles. On to my updated mafia reads: If I take seriously the idea that Oats is town, I have to consider the possibility that Debears is not. Debears' only contribution is a case on Oats, which is quite weak. Mafia debears would want Oats lynched, because that would mean that mafia gets to shoot into both Toad and FT tonight, or at any point in the future. While this would instantly out his as confirmed mafia, I'm not sure how confident I am with the idea that mafia wouldn't trade one of their own for our two elected roles, especially the mayor. Plus, people would be content to sit on the idea of town debears until the mayor/sheriff gets shot, which is quite useful. It's basically lynch immunity. On January 22 2013 02:58 debears wrote: Unless the mafia sub in for both bodyguards, the sheriff and mayor cannot be nked until the bodyguards are taken down. That means that we should place good town players who are likely to get nked in the mayor and sheriff spots. Vivax is not by any means a player at threat of being nked as town. He doesn't have good reads. Austin and Gonzaw are two players that are nk targets as town and have good reads from what I have heard. I'd say either of them is a good choice for sheriff, with Gonzaw preferred This post, and many like it, show that debears is fairly preoccupied with the idea of Bodyguards and their potential protection powers. When I was mafia, and I was attempting to bluesnipe, one of the quickest tells you can pick up on is who seems preoccupied with blues in general, or a specific role such as doctor. Debears may have already has the idea in his head on Day 1 to make this sort of play as mafia, to sub himself in as a BG and use this "unlynchable" status to his advantage. Aside from this, debears has been fairly inactive, and hasn't pursued his scum reads very strongly. He posted a case on Gonzaw (that had him as slight scum, rofl), and then backed off of it later. He has a "case" on Oats, but he earlier posted this: On January 23 2013 10:42 debears wrote: Btw, I say we take the focus of oats and me for today. I'll get nked tomorrow. If Oats is town he will too. ##vote annul ##vote double lynch So we know he doesn't want to lynch Oats. Who does he want to lynch? Annul. Why? On January 23 2013 12:00 debears wrote: Annul, reads plz. If you aren't going to defend yourself, give reads and reasoning and help us obi-wan. That's plenty enough contribution On January 24 2013 01:37 debears wrote: Austin, we have lurkers in clarity, BK, and fuba. We have a scummy annul. We have a scummy Gonzaw We had questionable nks. What reason isn't there for double lynch? 1) We have to find a way to rid of these damn lurkers 2) I am 95% sure 5touch is town. Toad is looking town to me at this point also (his alignment will be figured out anyways eventually). Use them while we got them. 3) I will very very likely die tonight. I want to help what little I can before then On January 24 2013 15:31 debears wrote: I am not comfortable with lynching Gonzaw currently over annul and BKE Upon closer inspection of his town games listed, and a couple of his scum games, I found that his posting style of convincing someone of their scumminess is a trait of his town games. I only looked a little in the scum ones and I didn't see it I didn't see anything in terms of him defending himself against a scumread's accusations in either That would leave me wanting to lynch Gonzaw based on 1) His running for mayor (scum having to have someone run) 2) Him trying to convince 5touch to lynch oats over prplhz I'm still waiting on an answer over whether the mayor/sheriff can be killed in the same night as a bodyguard. If so, then I agree with not lynching Oats. If the mayor/sheriff can't be killed on the same night, we should take that into consideration of lynching oats He gives zero reason. He just calls him "scummy". I don't like this sort of thing at all. The speed at which he voted for annul also to me indicates that this is a mafia vote, because he did it early in the day and with zero prior mention of annul. These four posts are the only ones he even mentions annul in at all, and they've all been in day 2. Very weird to me. In that last post he also says he'd be willing to lynch BKE, but he's never mentioned him before either, and indeed doesn't even bother to provide a reason. So what about prphlz? He supported that lynch day 1, right? On January 22 2013 00:22 debears wrote: 5touch I agree with a prplhz lynch. He hasn't scumhunted. He has dedicated himself to defending himself with previous games and making no contributions to the town That's his only mention about his own read on prplhz. All of this I believe is indicative of a blendy mafia mindset, something I find pervasive throughout his filter. Not many of his reads seem original to him at all. His low activity suggests not wanting to be in the spotlight. I don't believe he's actively playing the game in a way I think town debears would, because town debears is characteristically more convinced of his own reads, a la Hero Mini where he was hyper aggressive day 1 in pursuing his target. Now, for the same reason WBG gave for not lynching Oats, I don't think we should lynch Debears either. But if I had to pick a mafia out of the two BG's, I would actually pick debears. Oats is greener to me. So, who else do I think is mafia, and which of them do I want to lynch today? Vivax could still be mafia. While a lot of the vets have previously had him as town, even they are less certain of this idea than they were before. However, if he is mafia I don't think he's going to get any better and we will have more information to lynch him with at a later date. Unless he continues to be completely anti-town for the rest of today, I don't think he's a particularly good lynch, and I don't think many other people do either. Annul might be mafia, as he's played similar to Vivax today, but I actually feel less confident about lynching him because of how easy it is for everyone to call him town. There's literally been zero resistance to lynching him today aside from other people giving out their own mafia reads and trying to get them lynched. I don't think a single person has called him even somewhat town, though I may be wrong because I've only skimmed the last ten pages. I don't like lynching him today. Gonzaw is an interesting idea. On January 21 2013 13:51 gonzaw wrote: Yamato, the chances of Vivax being scum are kind of low I think. He's had a LOT of posts, even more than when he was town in games like Can't Believe and the like. Also seems too confident to be scum. At worst let him be for a few days, if he's scum he'll surely "break" and go lurking or something. Don't really know what to think of debears/grush; they are not making much sense and are kind of "trolling" with their votes and some of their reads, but that's too null to blindly lynch on D1. He has a few of these types of posts in his filter, where he softdefends a player (often Vivax actually) and generally gives weak reads. I don't feel like he's taken many strong stances with his reads this game. Even his opposition of the prplhz lynch was fairly weak. On January 21 2013 05:53 gonzaw wrote: Well...it seems i have the habit of posting here when nobody else is around to respond back (or post about other things) so I like quadriple post lol .....maybe I'm doing that intentionally as scum! :O :O >_> Also, he has a few of these posts in his filter, where he seems particularly preoccupied with his own image, and how town perceives the things he's doing. As I just finished typing in my analysis of another mafia player in NMM XXXIII. preoccupation with town's perception is a mafia tell, as they are more likely to care about how they are perceived than town. On January 21 2013 06:00 gonzaw wrote: It's hard to "consolidate posts". People make it seem like it's so easy. When I play the game I don't "think consolidately". I find a bunch of stuff and have a bunch of thoughts, which can't really be "consolidated" into a nice single perfect post. I'm going to my aunts house in like 1 hour anyway so I'll let you guys breathe for a moment  He even goes so far as to defend his spammy nature, something that I, as town, feel completely unmotivated to justify. While this is indicative of how I feel on the matter, that I just post what I think at the time I think it, I do not feel the need to justify this mindset. However, Gonzaw obviously does, which again leads me to believe that he is concerned with his image. This idea is also reinforced with the concept that running for mayor and being active on D1 are two easy ways to get people to have cheap town reads on you. While this is not a strong mafia tell, it is what I have managed to find in his filter after a short bit of diving. I am fairly confident in the possibility of him being mafia for these reasons, along with those that the rest of town has posted. I will resume my filter dive of him tomorrow, and either confirm my own bias or perhaps see something that might change my mind. | ||
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yamato77
11589 Posts
not town, lol | ||
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BroodKingEXE
United States829 Posts
On January 23 2013 10:36 gonzaw wrote: Kind of saw this coming to be honest (except the sandro kill). Unless some of them were a vig shot. Oats, you seem to be active, why haven't you addressed my response to your "case"? Five, could have scum killed you+Toad last night if both debears+Oats were scum and "subbed in"? On January 23 2013 10:39 gonzaw wrote: EBWOP: Derp debears already asked that question. Dunno what to think about the BGs. I'd take a guess and say that at least one of those is town, since I doubt scum would have the balls to make 2 scum BGs. I'd say debears is the townie and Oats is the scum. Although meh this works anyway. If Oats/debears is town, then scum have to kill them/him to kill Five/Toad, so maybe they'd even do us a favor killing the townie out of them. The speculation was bad, but it seems genuine. Just cause he continues the speculation, after making the mistake. WBG pointed out, but assuming that scum chose to risk a BG position is fool proof. My take on it is its not worth it at all. At the end of the night an elected will be able to out the remaining BG leading to an instalynch. | ||
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Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
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yamato77
11589 Posts
On January 24 2013 16:22 Toadesstern wrote: anyone doubting debears look at the timestamp of his vote on d1... I do not, at all, believe that a quick wagon on to an obviously strong town player excludes debears from the possible mafia candidates. | ||
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BroodKingEXE
United States829 Posts
On January 24 2013 16:02 Mocsta wrote: Toad, if you are there. (Or anyone else) Is there any discussions that can be had over Chezinu random vote swapping towards the end? (Chez -> Austin -> BKE -> Gonzaw) Fits with the trolly style of Chezinu, as it had no effect on the actual election I dont suspect treachery. | ||
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yamato77
11589 Posts
Yeah, no. That's really weak. I'm not going to exclude debears just for potentially bussing his own teammate. | ||
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Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
On January 24 2013 16:25 yamato77 wrote: I do not, at all, believe that a quick wagon on to an obviously strong town player excludes debears from the possible mafia candidates. again, look at the timestamp. Debears was like the first guy to vote palmar. | ||
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yamato77
11589 Posts
On January 24 2013 16:28 Toadesstern wrote: again, look at the timestamp. Debears was like the first guy to vote palmar. He was the third. Dude, if that's your ONLY reason for thinking he's town it's fucking weak and you need to reassess. | ||
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Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
On January 24 2013 16:29 yamato77 wrote: He was the third. Dude, if that's your ONLY reason for thinking he's town it's fucking weak and you need to reassess. my bad, the first once ft changed his prime lynch candidate to [b]Prplhz[b] | ||
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yamato77
11589 Posts
With zero justification, zero reasoning, and almost no real involvement. | ||
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yamato77
11589 Posts
I don't care. I have to get up in five hours and I have a 15 hour day to deal with. Bye. | ||
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Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
He's still a bodyguard while both Palmar and I are both still alive. There's absolutely no reason to discuss debears right now. | ||
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yamato77
11589 Posts
On January 24 2013 16:36 Toadesstern wrote: He's still one of the first voters you voted Palmar once he changed his lynch to Prplhz He's still a bodyguard while both Palmar and I are both still alive. There's absolutely no reason to discuss debears right now. You're the one that defended him after I said in the post I didn't want to lynch him today. Like I said, you're free to think what you will, but that's a weak reason to think someone is town. | ||
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Mocsta
Australia9388 Posts
On January 24 2013 16:16 yamato77 wrote: This post of Oats, along with other things like his willingness to give out reads, his overall activity level, and his fairly unnecessary (if mafia) case on Gonzaw, makes me believe that he is town. The fact that he's continued to pursue his read on Gonzaw today is quite telling to me. When he posted the case at night, I believed he would have done so with the idea that it was cheap town cred to do something like this at night when there was no lynch on the line. However, today I see that he's fairly invested in the idea that Gonzaw is mafia, something that I feel a lot of people are at the moment. Basically, if you think Gonzaw is mafia, Oats is far likelier to be town. I can agree that one of Gonzaw/Oatsmaster is mafia, not both. However, I still want to hear Gonzaw take on my read before committing to a stance. | ||
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DearestSnot
Germany200 Posts
On January 24 2013 16:27 BroodKingEXE wrote: Fits with the trolly style of Chezinu, as it had no effect on the actual election I dont suspect treachery. add to whatever scum heuristics that BKE is not reading the thread, though that should not surprise anyone at all. Chezinu admitted himself he tried to get Austin/gonzaw elected over Toad, he clearly was trying to influence the election. He also had a fairly strong mayoral candidacy despite not even really talking about lynch candidates. He mentioned prplhz only really upon being prompted for it, and till now he still hasn't given forth any reads. "fits with the trolly style of chezinu" is a pretty shitty way of dismissing his play, which is not what anyone should be doing right now. | ||
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