EPTChrono Trigger Mafia - Page 257
| Forum Index > TL Mafia |
|
syllogism
Finland5948 Posts
| ||
|
Acrofales
Spain17706 Posts
On November 30 2012 19:46 syllogism wrote: What is your win con then? I don't quite understand how you are supposed to achieve your win con if you really have no idea what your abilities do. Clearly no one is trying to kill you given that you haven't claimed being hit or anything. Have you managed to do anything useful with your abilities since the dt check? I'm mostly curious as there is no way you are mafia and we can't do anything about you even if your win con is to kill some townie. I am slowly making progress on my wincon. My abilities do help me with it. Also, while I have avoided the big shots that hit Marv and Dino, I have claimed all the damage I took: D1 - 20 damage D2 - 30 damage D3 - nothing D4 - 75 damage So far I am not particularly concerned about my "survivor" wincon, but if somebody aims a nuke like the one Drazerk claims to have aimed at Toad in my direction I won't be quite as happy. That said, the damage claimed by Toad, the health claimed by Drazerk and my own max HP mean something is wrong there. The nuke should've been bigger. However, there are too many things that could have happened. Suffice to say, I don't trust Drazerk. It is possible this was all an elaborate ploy by scum to 1. Figure out how much my HP is to see whether it is worth their trouble of offing me (I assure you, it isn't. I expect I am harder to kill than Dino, even without half the town protecting me) 2. Distance Drazerk from Toad by claiming a monster hit on him. It is also possible scum has some protective abilities, which they used on Toad, or Drazerk was lying about having only 24 HP and/or how his ability works. The latter seems a foregone conclusion in any case, seeing as someone claimed he shot Draz for 50 damage last night and Drazerk is not yet dead. | ||
|
syllogism
Finland5948 Posts
| ||
|
phagga
Switzerland2194 Posts
About my D2: I wrote in this post that my activity will be low the next 2 days. That was in the middle of D2. From then on, I was barely online. I came back almost 22 hours later with this post, roughly 1 hour before deadline, and had a lot to read. At least two people asked me to consolidate on Toad or Sandro, so I looked if I would feel comfortable lynching one of the two. At the same time I tried to read up on the thread. The result of having too much to read and not enough time was this Post, where I shortly explain why I voted Sandro. That 7 minutes before the deadline. If I would have had more time, I would have explained in more detail what I did not like. And just to make this absolutely clear: My activity is always low on weekends You can go and see any game of me, you will almost always find posts where I say that I will be not very active due to weekends. Most prominent example is Wheel of Fortune where I came back into the thread like 10 minutes before deadline on sunday night and had to vote (had not voted yet). And yes, this weekend my activity will also be low. About CaveJohnson: I haven't forgot about him, he was at that point no longer red in my notes, he was black (means null), which was the result of his discussion with acro as well as the constant reminder from other people that he is a coinflip and an irritating player as either alignement. I actually already mentioned all that stuff, but you seemed to have ignored it for some reason? About Syllo/Sandro/Kita: I played with Kita in Aperture Mafia, so I have an idea how he plays as town. I haven't played with syllo, and with sandro only in a game where he hydrad with Toad and was killed N1. About GK: I voiced my first suspiciouns on him on D1. I grew more and more wary of him, which resulted in the case on D2. I was then not very active over the weekend. Somewhere on D3 someone asked me about GK, and I updated my read, which lead to the discussion about bussing Sandro. After that, I felt really unsure about it. When GK came back in the thread with his personal attacks on Dieno, calling snb scum and then coming up with that list, I was pretty sure again that he was scum. Regarding his contradiction when candidating for party leader: I'm out of time, will cover that in a few hours. | ||
|
goodkarma
United States1067 Posts
Clarity, Oatsmaster, Dienosore, Keirathi, Syllogism: “Confirmed town…” TheChronicler: believable claim, a sincerity that leads me to believe he's town... Toad – Scum, obviously. Z-Boson – Lurky, about to be replaced. From what I’ve seen of his game, he plays much more wishy-washy as scum and tries moreso to “blend in” than give definitive reads. Then again, this was in (I think?) his first newbie game (NMM XXIV). Whatever the case, I know that his play has evolved significantly since then, and that if he was scum his play would be possibly craftier. But I do like his closing list post. I would lean towards a (slight) town read on him at this present point in the game. We will know more after his replacement (hopefully) does a better job of being active. + Show Spoiler + (And as a side note, I’m a little sad I couldn’t play a full game with Z-Bo… Playing with him in NMM XXIV was a blast  )Kitaman – For being a strong town player, he doesn’t seem to be dedicating much effort into playing this game. Honestly, does anyone NOT think he’s 3rd party yet? His most recent post about Acro though does raise my eyebrows quite high though… Why does he take such a sudden interest in Acro??? Is it because he has to get him lynched as a 3rd party objective? Heavy speculation I know, but the thought crossed my mind… I mean it’s not as though Kita’s done much of anything all game to help us… Just as he’s pushing for Acro to full claim, I’d propose that it’s important for him to full claim, for the same reasons he listed for Acro. CaveJohnson – Ridiculously anti-town, lies constantly about his abilities, but hard to read because of the consistency with which he does it… That pretty much sums up his play… That he claimed to damage Toad with some super-powerful OP ability doesn’t mean he’s town… I’d say if Acro were to claim his HP, maybe there could be some means of determining if his claim were even plausible after Toad’s flip. But really even that is speculative, as Acro isn’t someone who we know we can trust presently… As it stands, there’s really not much we can do with him. He’s not a strong lynch prospect, but I’m still not against him being a decent vigi prospect. Even then, though, I don’t feel he’s the best priority right now. This is different than my stance before. Details below: While making this list post, I’ve thought of it this way: I am of the belief that CaveJohnson would be just as likely to be playing this way as scum or town. So how I look at it it’s a (assuming 5-member scumteam) 5/25 (20%) chance he’s scum from the outset. It could be the case but it’s inherently unlikely… As such, there are better vigi targets. Hapa – I honestly don’t know what to make of this healing situation. Firstly, I don’t see how town or scum would be likely to damage Hapa. Secondly, I don’t see what Hapa would have to gain by lying about either being damaged or healed… And this I believe to be the major point: even if he were scum, why would he have any reason whatsoever to lie about being damaged or healed? Pity points, I guess??? I see zero motive for doing so, and as such I believe Hapa’s damage and (lack of) healing claims. The circumstances for them may be unclear, but in the absence of motive there’s really no reason I can see to not believe Hapa. Regarding Hapa’s play in general: It’s undeniably “off” from the town Hapa I remember that tunnel drills scum to death. But then again, I see clearly pro-town qualities to his play. He is providing scum reads and doing + Show Spoiler + (at least imo) I’m not 100% familiar with his scum play but from what I’ve seen from a couple of games where he’s played scum (Mario mini, liquid city), he takes on a more informal tone in his posts and is a bit more trolly. He has a more serious tone this game, and while I would not consider this alone a reason to call him town, it is something else worth considering. I would love to see a game where he played scum well, as I find it hard to believe he got a “well-respected scum game” from these two games… All in all, I have a town read on him. Iamperfection – Players such as him are incredibly hard for me to read… In fact the only thing I can really say from what I’ve tried to gather from his meta is that he is super-spammy as town (in Mario mini) and a less spammy as scum (NMM XIX, GSL mini don’t remember the number). As it stands, I’m trying to sift through a sea of one-liners to find posts of substance. I clearly recall in the early game, he had a really ridiculous “You know I’m town, right?” remark that Acro hammered him for. While I really didn’t feel it was productive, given how he plays I couldn’t call that alignment indicative. As it stands, he does seem to be showing what I consider to be genuine interest in the game (with intermittent non-sequitor remarks…), asking relevant questions to try to peg scum. I would like to see more “case” posting from him, but I’m not holding my breath… Leaning town. Prox – There’s a certain zeal with which he pushed his cases when we first played together as town in NMM XXII. Not saying that our play hasn’t evolved since then, but I do find it incredibly hard to believe that, however bad, as scum he could be bothered to write up a 43-page case against someone (me). I guess it could be he really really hates me  … But I’d assume it’s more plausible that he’s passionate about finding scum this game. And that’s not the kind of passion you typically find from scum. I’ve taken a chance to look at his scum game in NMM XIX, and it’s also notable that he is far lurkier that game. 18 pages’ activity, however, in his filter presently this game, and there’s definitely some substantial scumhunting in there. I’d say that’s at least some indication that he cares. Add to that that he has a plausible roleclaim that I’m inclined to believe. I have a town read on him.Hopeless – At this point I’m having a bit of writer’s block mulling through everything… But I can say this: Hopeless tends to play a far lurkier game as scum. Also the effort he puts into defending himself and the transparency with which he’s explained his scummy actions (such as lack of scumhunting) I find to be town characteristics. I have a slight town read on him. Although if he is to convince others he isn’t scum, it would be a good idea for him to pick up on the scumhunting… risk.nuke – This seems to be a favorite topic of a few people here for a potential lynch. He definitely hasn’t been very useful for town, and his scumhunting is rather lacking, but I’m not convinced that makes him scum. A large part of my town read on him is his roleclaim in mason QT. He was incredibly indignant about how reserved I was with communicating with him, and as he came to understand it was uncertain his claim implied he was town I felt he was genuine in how he came across. Another reason I believe risk is that I have never seen a setup where masons are scum aligned. And honestly, from a logistical standpoint it would make little sense as it’s a power that really wouldn’t help scum much at all. And from this perspective, I find it unlikely that he is lying. I am rather thankful that he was given the mason role, as I will admit that from his filter it would be very easy to mislynch him. And lastly, I am unsure as to the full line of reasoning for why he chose me the first cycle. I will, however, say that I find it believable that as town you would bring in the person you vote for party leader, as that’s clearly one of your town reads. He definitely could have used his role differently (as a way to try to confirm and vigi kill scum reads), but he didn’t. Traditionally, a mason wouldn’t have a vigi kill power, and I could understand how he would not think to use his role in what is (arguably) the stronger way of confirming and killing scum… I have a town read on risk. Djo – I really should have given his scum game more credit. I didn’t realize until looking at Mario Mini that he had a formidable scum game. However, I still have a town read on him. He had been eager every step of the way to get himself established as town. Even now, when it would be suicidal as scum to be elected to a party, he’s excited for the opportunity. I simply don’t see scum doing that, as being the weak link that fails the party at this point in the game means certain detection and death. Adam – I really don’t like the way he’s played this game. And the only scum game I could find he lurked until he got modkilled, which really doesn’t tell me much of anything… He shows an active interest in the game, asking reasonable questions, but his only “case” seems to be on Z-Boson who he seems bent on tunneling. I remember a person or two commenting on how it was inaccurate he was spending most his time tunneling Z-Boson as it was only something like two posts. But looking at his sparse filter, they are the two-three posts of the most substance. He made one or two comments about Sandroba for his lynch, but beyond that, all he’s given us is Z-Boson is a prime scum candidate and no one else really is… Tunneling is something both scum and town do. However, Z-Boson is an easy target that has had lurker issues similar to Adam. Imho, it’s a bit scummy to only focus on Z-Boson, even after he’s said he’s getting replaced… All that being said, I have a null read on Adam. Outside of Z-Boson, he has generally acted pro-town and nothing else appears to be scummy. Acro – Has generally acted pro-town, and has claimed 3rd party. Kita, however, has brought up the good point that we have no idea of Acro’s win condition or if he can be trusted. Unlike Kita, the most peculiar thing I’ve found about Acro is how actively invested he seems to be as 3rd party. This doesn’t make sense to me, unless if he wins with town. And if he really is 3rd party, he should have a different win condition of some kind… It doesn’t quite add up for me. He genuinely seems to be trying, and I can’t quite figure out why. He needs to roleclaim if town is to trust that he is an asset and not a liability going further into this game. I also have not ruled out the possibility that the reason he is so proactive after claiming 3rd party is that he actually is scum. Nothing that I can presently find tips me towards distrusting he’s third party, but it’s in the back of my mind… My Scum Reads: Sorry that this section isn’t longer and more detailed. I may elaborate more at a later point in time if people demand a “definitive case.” What makes them top suspects is that almost everyone else’s alignment I have deduced as discussed above. Combined with the scummy behavior they exhibit, I believe they have a very strong chance of flipping red. 1) phagga – I like Hapa’s case on him. Phagga has indeed been “playing it safe, and has not been aggressive with pursuing his reads. It’s the kind of laziness and indifference I’d expect of scum. His defense to Hapa’s case was short and sweet and unconvincing too imho. I’m not going to go into much more detail right now other than to say this: Hapa’s case has merit. Maybe you guys should actually take some time to pay attention to it… Perhaps he hasn’t been “red checked” like Toad, and he hasn’t outright said he’s scum, but his play is consistent with what I’d expect from scum. By process of elimination, he is a top scum suspect that needs to be further investigated for next lynch. 2) strongandbig – I jumped the gun on this case before. I looked into his filter and I noticed that he had a pronounced difference in his post count between this game and his town meta. Then I saw that he had excuses for his absences, and that he was genuinely busy. He has definitely “blended in,” taking no stances I would consider brave or new. And while he has excuses, he still has been pretty lurky, and this does match his scum meta. Also, two things I consider possible scumslips: “phagga is probably town, but I'm not confident enough to agree with putting him on a party yet.” This remark has been referenced before, but this is something I don’t see a townie motivation for saying. There’s a pronounced difference between “probably town” and “maybe town.” You vote in your strong town reads, so this doesn’t quite add up to me… It’s at the very least an odd statement if phagga were to be lynched and flip town, but I would argue it would be a damning statement if phagga were to be lynched and flip scum. Another thing that was odd to me was that he was pissed about the 100 points of damage he took. How could you be mad about this when it’s pretty clear that you’re a decent lurker shot? Not clearly scum motivated by any means, but still it felt a little odd to me since only scum needs to worry about surviving as long as possible. 3) VE – Has pretty much only lurked until recently. Has recently pushed a case on me. Scolds Prox for making a case on why I was scummy rather than about my motivations then does the same with his own. He has done absolutely nothing to demonstrate that he is town, and further, pointing out scummy actions rather than scum motivated ones on town players is a commonplace play for scum. I have ruled out almost everyone else from this list as either town or third party. That only leaves lurkers for this third spot… VE fits the bill of a scummy lurker, and should be considered for lynch after phagga and strong. Some might say something like, “But he’s only been active a short time give him time…” And I’m not opposed to that. He will have some time to attempt to prove he’s town as phagga and strong are first on the chopping block. By far my weakest scum read, but a scum read nonetheless. 3, alternate 1) CaveJohnson as I described before is a very hard one to read since he is so consistently anti-town. However, he belongs on this list as he very well could be scum for reasons already described. 3, alternate 2) Adam could be scum. He’s a null read lurker for me atm... | ||
|
goodkarma
United States1067 Posts
 | ||
|
goodkarma
United States1067 Posts
Scum should be scared of roleclaiming this game. By fakeclaiming a role with so many blue powers out against them they are running a respectable risk of being spotted. Even with a claim that exactly matches their real abilities, they might be found out using their abilities on targets that wouldn’t make sense from a town perspective. There might be a “reward” of greater trust to help curtail that risk, but still, claiming a role only draws attention and scrutiny. Something scum doesn’t want in this game… As such, I am FAR more trusting of the roleclaims that have been brought forward than several of the people here (most notably syllo). Quick note about Post Count: I know some of my reads have some dependence on “post count.” I am fully aware this is not THE indicator that someone is scum, and that scum can be quite active. However, I’ve tried to make comparisons between people’s scum and town games where I can to see if there’s a difference in activity. I believe this is a decent method to get some indication of alignment. A quick note about syllo His laziness and lack of interest in the game presently leaves me a little concerned about his alignment, although I still think he’s town. Just as a warning: Don’t rule out a Godfather-type mechanic that makes him have a high rather than negative success modifier in parties… In General: My play has been bad. If you want townie motivation, one reason is because I’m not the greatest fan of trying that hard without any prospect of a lynch and a sure scum already lined up when such a lynch occurs… I even said such a thing in the mason QT… Further, I enjoy using an elimination-based approach to finding scum since townie players can act scummy just as scum can. Combined with looking for scum motivation, I’d like to think my reads become reasonably accurate by this point in the game… Less-so early game, which is also why I’m a bit lazy about it… Also, mislynching me won’t help town any + Show Spoiler + (and syllo won’t carry me T.T) | ||
|
goodkarma
United States1067 Posts
| ||
|
Djodref
France3332 Posts
Firstly, it is important to keep in my that our party leader (most likely Clarity) is going to choose a party for tomorrow. I think it is very important to make sure that all the chosen party members are alive for the next event because I'm afraid that one town member missing could cause the event to fail. I didn't want to announce that Dieno had death protection again today but after considering my previous point, I think it was for the best to tell any potential party leader that Dieno should be on the team even if he has low HP, because he is not going to die tonight for sure. If people are still doubting me, please keep in mind that my ability has been mod-confirmed. On November 29 2012 09:05 GreYMisT wrote: *snip* Dienosore is Protected by a Mysterious Player, and is prevented from dying *snip* Remark: I'm not so mysterious Anyway, even if town fails to see how my ability is OP, the scum team is going to realize it without a doubt and that's why I require protection. Then, if I get protection, it is more likely for me that I'm not going to die, so it should be a good decision to put me on the party for tomorrow, which would give even more reasons to protect me. By the way, I think that Clarity is going to be protected enough for tonight, but we should be prudent. I'm not opposed to TC being in the party anymore, Clarity can decide to attribute the fourth spot to him if he wants. But I think it would be better to keep the fourth player hidden because I don't know if we have enough protection to keep 3 players alive for sure. By the way, I have no problem with people healing Dieno and stuff, but I think they are wasting their heals on him. | ||
|
risk.nuke
Sweden2825 Posts
| ||
|
risk.nuke
Sweden2825 Posts
| ||
|
Oatsmaster
United States16627 Posts
On November 30 2012 02:59 goodkarma wrote: ##Lynch: Goodkarma ##Party Leader: Keirathi | ||
|
syllogism
Finland5948 Posts
| ||
|
Clarity_nl
Netherlands6826 Posts
It's a backup vote incase of any ability shenanigans that might happen during a hidden lynch. | ||
|
Acrofales
Spain17706 Posts
On November 30 2012 20:59 risk.nuke wrote: Very interesting that Prom and Acro attacked me hard when syllogism led them to believe he thought I was scum and dropped it like a stone when he stated he was merely suspicious of me. Interesting that you think I dropped it. Where the fuck did I say "nah, risk is not suspicious". I think you are a prime candidate for scum. You have done jack shit in town's favour this game, have claimed a use of the role you have which makes no sense whatsoever from a town viewpoint (I was on the fence, but someone pointed out that inviting Keirathi before Syllo would be fucking retarded if you wanted to start a town circle... and GK in there is still bothering me from that point of view too) and refuse to give out your reads or explain earlier reads even after repeated questioning. However, I am satisfied that nobody will voluntarily take you on a party and when we get another opportunity to lynch someone I will be back to pushing you. For now, I will just ignore everything you say except to correct you when you are obviously misrepresenting shit that is happening. Like now. | ||
|
Oatsmaster
United States16627 Posts
I dont understand.. | ||
|
Djodref
France3332 Posts
On November 30 2012 22:01 Oatsmaster wrote: So he wants to lynch himself? I dont understand.. No, it's just a classic move from mafia players to pretend that they are town | ||
|
Clarity_nl
Netherlands6826 Posts
| ||
|
iamperfection
United States9634 Posts
Still is kind of silly because if he believes that could actually happen he would be for all intents and purposes be voting for himself. | ||
|
Djodref
France3332 Posts
| ||
| ||
