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motbob
United States12546 Posts
Note: This blog is quite late. I had the idea to write this right after the "KeSPA will send players to GSL" announcement was made, but because of work and The International 2, I never got around to it.
I haven't heard anything about the KeSPA vs GOM conflict since KeSPA seemingly caved last week. For those who have forgotten what happened, KeSPA originally stated that they would not send players to GSL 4 (the one that just started) or GSL 5. A group of GSL players led by Nestea countered by threatening to pull out of the OSL; all but one GSL player pledged to leave. KeSPA then made a statement promising to send players to GSL 5, but that was not enough to placate the GSL players, who continued to hold out. Finally, KeSPA conceded completely and sent 90 players to the GSL 4 prelims (and also allowed Jaedong and by.Sun to compete in Code S). But in this blog I'm going to explain why KeSPA will withdraw its players from the GSL as soon as it feels it can do so without repercussions.
In comments on the situation from TL and reddit, it was interesting that no one was speculating on KeSPA's motives. Or at least they were doing so vaguely. "They want a monopoly on the big name players." "They want to shut out anyone who doesn't dance to their fiddle." Every post that tried to explain KeSPA's actions seemed confusing to me.
So I'm going to try to explain the intent behind KeSPA's actions. By looking at what KeSPA wants and at what assets they have to help them get what they want, we'll be able to see that this conflict between GOM and KeSPA has not gone away and is in danger of splitting the SC2 scene in two in the coming months.
Before we begin, it's important to realize that KeSPA and the Proleague proteams are essentially one and the same. The decision-making body in KeSPA is made up of people from all the different sponsors/owners of proteams.
Let's flash back to 2007. IEG (International Esports Group) was a company sponsoring the proteam eSTRO. One day, KeSPA decided that they, as the administrators of all SC:BW events, owned the rights to broadcast such events. They put the rights up for auction for a three year period. OGN and MBC neglected to bid on those rights (because they did not recognize KeSPA's legitimacy in claiming those rights) and IEG snapped them up. A few months later, IEG started negotiations with MBC/OGN, stating that those two broadcasting companies needed to pay IEG for the rights to run leagues. During this time, KeSPA was strongly supporting IEG in their negotiations. MBC and OGN fought back, refusing IEG's demands outright, and talks broke down repeatedly. But when KeSPA pulled all of their players from the MSL qualifiers, OGN and MBC quickly caved. They simply couldn't run their tournaments without KeSPA players.
So KeSPA wanted money to help offset the cost of running proteams. They used their assets (the players on their proteams) to accomplish the goal of pressuring OGN/MBC to give them money. That statement might make no sense since OGN/MBC were paying IEG, not KeSPA itself. But KeSPA needed OGN/MBC to pay IEG, or broadcasting rights to KeSPA-run leagues would be essentially worthless. It's not like any company would purchase broadcasting rights from KeSPA if they had no guarantee that they'd be able to make the broadcasting companies pay up.
After the fracas in 2007, there was stability in the ESPORTS ecosystem. The broadcasting companies essentially paid KeSPA via IEG, and KeSPA used the money to run the proteam houses. Not a bad system overall, and not a system that casts KeSPA in such a bad light, I think. Running a proteam house is expensive!
But once GOM entered the scene, a wrench was thrown into the mix. GOM started a brand new SC:BW league in 2008 and refused to pay IEG a dime for broadcasting rights. Three teams boycotted the first GOM Classic Starleague: eSTRO, MBCgame HERO, and OGN Sparkyz. It shouldn't be difficult to work out exactly why each of those teams felt that it wasn't in their best interest to participate (recall that eSTRO was sponsored by IEG).
GOM preferred to deal with Blizzard, who they saw as the legitimate holders of Starcraft broadcasting rights. This created a problem for KeSPA. Its players (aka its assets) were being used for the benefit of another corporation without anything in return beyond sponsor exposure. The fact that GOM was not paying IEG meant that the value of KeSPA's broadcasting rights was not increasing. GOM paying Blizzard also set a troubling precedent for that KeSPA desperately hoped OGN and MBC would not follow. So KeSPA teams gradually began withdrawing from the league, citing scheduling issues / overwork for the players. In the third season of the league, SKT1 withdrew. Before the fourth season could start, KT, STX Soul, and Airforce ACE withdrew. Blizzard entered into negotiations with KeSPA to try to save the league, but the talks failed. In late 2009, with only five teams participating, the GSL ceased to be.
Fast forward to 2012. An identical situation is taking place. GOM is not paying IEG (although I'm not sure if IEG has rights to anything but Proleague anymore) and is certainly not paying KeSPA. So KeSPA, naturally, withdrew their players from GSL. Once again, their assets were being used in a way that did not benefit them beyond sponsorship exposure. But this time, they had to back down. They no longer held all the cards. GSL would have survived without KeSPA players, and OGN would have been dealt a crippling blow without half of its Ro16.
In six months, what will the situation be like? If you're a believer in the superiority of KeSPA players, you might expect half of Code S to be made up of them by then. That means the blade that Nestea and co. had at the neck of OGN will be turned on GOM.
Just like in 2007, KeSPA will be able to use their players as leverage in talks with GOM/Blizzard. The threat of withdrawal from GSL will be very real. KeSPA will be able to make new demands from a position of power. And if past relations between Blizzard/GOM and KeSPA are any indication, negotiations will fail and KeSPA will withdraw its players as a result. Last week, KeSPA chose to announce its non-participation in GSL right before the OSL Ro16, leaving them open to a counter-boycott. Next time around, they can choose better timing for their announcement of withdrawal.
So that's my prediction. A counterargument to this blog might be the idea that Blizzard will swoop in and threaten KeSPA with the shutdown of Proleague/OSL in order to convince them to send players to the GSL. However, I believe that this is extremely unlikely. If I were Blizzard, I would treat that kind of threat as a nuclear option -- one to be used as a last resort. A threat of total shutdown might be the cue for KeSPA to switch away from SC2 entirely. I think Blizzard is afraid of that possibility, given SC2's unpopularity in Korea. Blizzard Korea has also been seemingly ineffectual during this whole fiasco. They were caught completely off guard by KeSPA's actions and they did not release a public statement with any substance during the whole affair. Don't expect Blizzard to ride in on a white horse and save GSL in the event that KeSPA withdraws its players.
 
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Great write-up! As always I have no confidence in any analysis, whether it be pro play or esports politics, but it was a good read. It's pretty interesting what will develop now that we have this tension really going on now.
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A very good post and one that many should read. The factors involved in the KeSPA-GOM-Blizzard dispute really create very different positions and motivations for each side in a cash-starved industry and there's the very real risk that there's going to be a big split in the coming future.
There's no love lost between KeSPA and Blizzard from the initial launch of SC2 and the contention over Brood War too.
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ALLEYCAT BLUES49476 Posts
I believe the key to this entire relationship would actually lie in proleague.
If we are to believe in the original plan the the next season of proleague will have eSF teams in it along with kespa teams and I believe there is a strong possibility of it because with ACE gone it will be only 7 teams which would cause a problem.
then they couldn't possibly pull stunts like that again since eSF teams could just refuse to play in PL themselves, and this time directly damage KeSPA since KeSPA claim that proleague is "their product".
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I don't know much about any of this, but it's a little surprising that KeSPA sat on its hands for years while the heir apparent (SC2) to its source of income (BW) fostered the growth of competitors. Were they just arrogant enough to think SC2 would die out? Did they think no business structure would develop in the new game? It seems like an incredible miscalculation or lack of foresight, one which they are now scurrying to rectify and finding that, as you suggested, they don't have as many cards as they thought.
There may also come a time when the players themselves find that it is no longer in their best interests to be in KeSPA or...whatever the SC2 equivalent is...there may come a time where players realize they can make more money doing xyz instead of sticking with the current paradigm. Who knows!
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Great blog. KeSPA/Blizz makes a lot more sense now.
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I enjoyed reading your blog. However, I can't say that I will read the inevitable 30 pages of comments that will be here by this time tomorrow.
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KeSPA can simply switch away from sc2 to lol or even dota2 if Valve somehow putting money to OGN just like Riot
It's not like sc2 is really popular in korea (compared to BW/lol)
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Sometimes I wonder if the effort put into promoting SC2 in Korea is worth it. I almost feel as if Blizzard is fighting a losing battle there against a population that's bitter about the death of its "national sport" -- honestly, I'm not convinced KeSPA forcing a switch can revitalize the scene -- and that their efforts are better spent promoting their product elsewhere (i.e. China). Sure, they would be competing with massively popular games, but tbh, they'll be competing with LoL and DotA (2) everywhere they go in the future as well. Might as well try to exploit China's massive potential while you're at it and not have to fight with KeSPA.
Not saying the Chinese scene doesn't also have its own problems, but certainly it's preferable to trying to keep KeSPA on a leash and hoping against hope that the GSL doesn't go under from the pressure.
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What do you think Blizzard/GOM/eSF's options are to prevent any future shenanigans KeSPA tries to pull?
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motbob
United States12546 Posts
On September 04 2012 13:35 d3_crescentia wrote:
What do you think Blizzard/GOM/eSF's options are to prevent any future shenanigans KeSPA tries to pull?
That's an important question, and I don't have an answer.
EDIT: No, it's the wrong question to ask. KeSPA has leverage, GOM has leverage, Blizzard has leverage. The question is not how to "prevent" any shenanigans from KeSPA. That's impossible to do. The question is how to negotiate, how much to concede, etc. And only Blizzard and GOM are in a position to answer that question.
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On September 04 2012 13:35 d3_crescentia wrote:
What do you think Blizzard/GOM/eSF's options are to prevent any future shenanigans KeSPA tries to pull?
One of the greatest problems is that SC2 in Korea is less sustainable and stable than we'd rather it be. There was an issue with converting the BW fan to SC2 as well. SC2 has also had a poor showing popularity-wise in terms of playerbase too. Any more controversy and the scene risks hurting itself even further, and possibly permanently too.
As BLinD-RawR mentioned, perhaps a solution is closer integration with KeSPA so that anything KeSPA tries will only hurt itself too. But the conditions of any agreement may be steep and I wonder if GOM/eSF are willing to pay or even want to get closer to KeSPA. After all, eSF was formed from the very beginning to oppose KeSPA and prevent it from taking over.
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On September 04 2012 13:34 babylon wrote:
Sometimes I wonder if the effort put into promoting SC2 in Korea is worth it. I almost feel as if Blizzard is fighting a losing battle there against a population that's bitter about the death of its "national sport" -- honestly, I'm not convinced KeSPA forcing a switch can revitalize the scene -- and that their efforts are better spent promoting their product elsewhere (i.e. China). Sure, they would be competing with massively popular games, but tbh, they'll be competing with LoL and DotA (2) everywhere they go in the future as well. Might as well try to exploit China's massive potential while you're at it and not have to fight with KeSPA.
Not saying the Chinese scene doesn't also have its own problems, but certainly it's preferable to trying to keep KeSPA on a leash and hoping against hope that the GSL doesn't go under from the pressure.
It wont go big in china unless its free to play or u get a pirate copy of the game and play, which u cant really. The reason dota and wc3 was so big in china was because it was free and pirate copies of wc3 were everywhere.
Blizzard not including LAN to prevent pirate copies of the game basically kills the chance for a chinese scene
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On September 04 2012 13:52 Shock710 wrote:Show nested quote +On September 04 2012 13:34 babylon wrote:
Sometimes I wonder if the effort put into promoting SC2 in Korea is worth it. I almost feel as if Blizzard is fighting a losing battle there against a population that's bitter about the death of its "national sport" -- honestly, I'm not convinced KeSPA forcing a switch can revitalize the scene -- and that their efforts are better spent promoting their product elsewhere (i.e. China). Sure, they would be competing with massively popular games, but tbh, they'll be competing with LoL and DotA (2) everywhere they go in the future as well. Might as well try to exploit China's massive potential while you're at it and not have to fight with KeSPA.
Not saying the Chinese scene doesn't also have its own problems, but certainly it's preferable to trying to keep KeSPA on a leash and hoping against hope that the GSL doesn't go under from the pressure. It wont go big in china unless its free to play or u get a pirate copy of the game and play, which u cant really. The reason dota and wc3 was so big in china was because it was free and pirate copies of wc3 were everywhere. Blizzard not including LAN to prevent pirate copies of the game basically kills the chance for a chinese scene
Quite true. If someone hacked SC2 to make it LAN compatible, then, perhaps, a Chinese scene could come to be...
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I didn't know about IEG, but I saw how KeSPA muscled GOM out of the scene (they even used the EXACT same excuse this time!), so this is nowhere near a surprise for me.
I agree that Blizzard is looking pretty ineffectual. They may favor GOM since GOM has always treated them as the true owners of the broadcast rights, but they likely understand just how precarious a position they're in.
This is actually a very frightening situation, because nobody really holds a trump card that will just win them everything. GOM's players are needed in the OSL, and KeSPA's players are needed in the GSL. The IEG/KeSPA situation coexists with GOM's treating with Blizzard... And while blizzard could really drop the bomb and try to take away IEG/KeSPA's rights there, I doubt that would actually cripple KeSPA, considering how they've been working with other games for a while now.
Overall, I have no idea where this will end, but it likely won't be pretty.
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ALLEYCAT BLUES49476 Posts
On September 04 2012 13:50 Chiharu Harukaze wrote:Show nested quote +On September 04 2012 13:35 d3_crescentia wrote:
What do you think Blizzard/GOM/eSF's options are to prevent any future shenanigans KeSPA tries to pull? One of the greatest problems is that SC2 in Korea is less sustainable and stable than we'd rather it be. There was an issue with converting the BW fan to SC2 as well. SC2 has also had a poor showing popularity-wise in terms of playerbase too. Any more controversy and the scene risks hurting itself even further, and possibly permanently too. As BLinD-RawR mentioned, perhaps a solution is closer integration with KeSPA so that anything KeSPA tries will only hurt itself too. But the conditions of any agreement may be steep and I wonder if GOM/eSF are willing to pay or even want to get closer to KeSPA. After all, eSF was formed from the very beginning to oppose KeSPA and prevent it from taking over.
preventing it from taking over does not mean they should not work with them, which is also one of their goals.
it is very important for eSF to keep KeSPA as close to them as possible.
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On September 04 2012 14:22 BLinD-RawR wrote:Show nested quote +On September 04 2012 13:50 Chiharu Harukaze wrote:On September 04 2012 13:35 d3_crescentia wrote:
What do you think Blizzard/GOM/eSF's options are to prevent any future shenanigans KeSPA tries to pull? One of the greatest problems is that SC2 in Korea is less sustainable and stable than we'd rather it be. There was an issue with converting the BW fan to SC2 as well. SC2 has also had a poor showing popularity-wise in terms of playerbase too. Any more controversy and the scene risks hurting itself even further, and possibly permanently too. As BLinD-RawR mentioned, perhaps a solution is closer integration with KeSPA so that anything KeSPA tries will only hurt itself too. But the conditions of any agreement may be steep and I wonder if GOM/eSF are willing to pay or even want to get closer to KeSPA. After all, eSF was formed from the very beginning to oppose KeSPA and prevent it from taking over. preventing it from taking over does not mean they should not work with them, which is also one of their goals. it is very important for eSF to keep KeSPA as close to them as possible.
Are you paraphrasing Michael Corleone here?
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ALLEYCAT BLUES49476 Posts
On September 04 2012 14:32 Shady Sands wrote:Show nested quote +On September 04 2012 14:22 BLinD-RawR wrote:On September 04 2012 13:50 Chiharu Harukaze wrote:On September 04 2012 13:35 d3_crescentia wrote:
What do you think Blizzard/GOM/eSF's options are to prevent any future shenanigans KeSPA tries to pull? One of the greatest problems is that SC2 in Korea is less sustainable and stable than we'd rather it be. There was an issue with converting the BW fan to SC2 as well. SC2 has also had a poor showing popularity-wise in terms of playerbase too. Any more controversy and the scene risks hurting itself even further, and possibly permanently too. As BLinD-RawR mentioned, perhaps a solution is closer integration with KeSPA so that anything KeSPA tries will only hurt itself too. But the conditions of any agreement may be steep and I wonder if GOM/eSF are willing to pay or even want to get closer to KeSPA. After all, eSF was formed from the very beginning to oppose KeSPA and prevent it from taking over. preventing it from taking over does not mean they should not work with them, which is also one of their goals. it is very important for eSF to keep KeSPA as close to them as possible. Are you paraphrasing Michael Corleone here?
Indeed I am.
but I don't exactly see them as "enemies", hence the paraphrasing.
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On September 04 2012 13:39 motbob wrote:Show nested quote +On September 04 2012 13:35 d3_crescentia wrote:
What do you think Blizzard/GOM/eSF's options are to prevent any future shenanigans KeSPA tries to pull? That's an important question, and I don't have an answer. EDIT: No, it's the wrong question to ask. KeSPA has leverage, GOM has leverage, Blizzard has leverage. The question is not how to "prevent" any shenanigans from KeSPA. That's impossible to do. The question is how to negotiate, how much to concede, etc. And only Blizzard and GOM are in a position to answer that question.
I was looking for a better word than "prevent" (somewhere along the lines of anticipate/mitigate/negotiate), but my vocabulary failed me. Still, point taken.
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SC2 has to become popular in Korea for KESPA to gain any strength in SC2.
foreigner favoritism will stay with GOM as long as they have Tastosis, GOM keeps providing foreigner invites, and GOM reaches out to the foreign audience like partnering with IPL and holding their tournament finals at IPL.
KESPA can possibly end up having the most skilled SC2 players, but people have shown they are more interested in following casters & personalities than pure quality of play.
foreign interest in SC2 has plateaued and been declining. Stephano is single handedly keeping foreigner interest in SC2 alive imo. HoTS really needs to get released to shake things up again.
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EPT
