EPTDwarf Fortress Mini Mafia - Page 21
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Custos Luna
United States96 Posts
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Mordanis
United States893 Posts
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DoYouHas
United States1140 Posts
CL's voteswitch was unique from the others in a very specific way. He let you pick for him Mord. On August 09 2012 23:27 Custos Luna wrote: If it is necessary, I will switch my vote from Mord to Forumite to avoid the double lynch depending on what is said in the next half hour. However, Mord, you need to decide. Forumite or prplhz. Make your choice. Do so before I am required to or the wrath of the moon will fall upon you. On August 09 2012 23:36 Custos Luna wrote: Trying to decide the best course of action. You're right, I want to get my vote on a real candidate. Scenarios running through my head: -I vote Forumite: Mord can force the double lynch. If both Forumite and prplhz are town, this puts us at 6v3 for tomorrow, something I'd really like to avoid. -I wait for Mord to vote for a real candidate: causes him to choose and I can avoid the double lynch. If one of prpl and Forumite are scum, the double lynch benefits us. However, I'm still not entirely convinced and I'm trying to figure out how to give us the best chance into this lynch. He implies multiple times that voting Forumite is what he wants to do, so why not actually do it? His reason is that he fears that Mord will force the double lynch if he votes first. But is this a rational fear? no. If Mord is town then he would realize that everyone does not want a double lynch day1 and would not cause one. He probably would have sat on marv and been content that CL took the decision out of his hands. If Mord is scum then he would realize that the town is going to lynch him day2 if he forces a last minute double lynch and that a 2 for 1 trade isn't bad for town day1. Neither alignment would have forced that double lynch in Mord's position. So why would CL put Mord (someone he is supposed to believe is scum, drastically increasing the chance of a mislynch) firmly in the driver's seat of yesterday's lynch? I can think of only one answer: CL knew that either choice would end in a townie flip and did not want to be tied to the blame for it. The language he uses leading up to the lynch only strengthens my belief that this is the case. + Show Spoiler + On August 09 2012 23:27 Custos Luna wrote: Firm stance on wanting to switch to Forum, immediately hands reins over to Mord to choose Forum or prplhz.EBWOP: DYH, looking back, that does appear to be fairly accurate. I had thought more people unvoted off prplhz and onto Forumite. If it is necessary, I will switch my vote from Mord to Forumite to avoid the double lynch depending on what is said in the next half hour. However, Mord, you need to decide. Forumite or prplhz. Make your choice. Do so before I am required to or the wrath of the moon will fall upon you. + Show Spoiler + On August 09 2012 23:36 Custos Luna wrote: Begins to distance himself from a Forumite lynch and even entertains double lynching.If one of prpl and Forumite are scum, the double lynch benefits us. However, I'm still not entirely convinced and I'm trying to figure out how to give us the best chance into this lynch. + Show Spoiler [Important One] + On August 09 2012 23:54 Custos Luna wrote: This is a very important post tone-wise. It starts with a mischievous tone with the bantering line of "I would never!". This bantering statement tells me that CL just relaxed a bit, or even is feeling a bit victorious. This is immediately is followed by an even bigger distancing statement, "Still unsure on Forumite. But I'm less sure on prpl". Then his 'moon' closing is even a bit off of the normal. Up until this point the moon comments by CL have been either normal signoffs or threats. This one is different, it reads to me like a self satisfied dig at Mord, which seems out of place until I fit it to my theory.I would never! Still unsure on Forumite. But I'm less sure on prpl, and I want to pad some security against a last minute swap/double lynch. Therefore: ##unvote Mordanis ##vote Forumite The moon is shocked that Mord has actually committed to something. Custos Luna is SCUM ##Vote: Custos Luna | ||
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slOosh
3291 Posts
On August 10 2012 23:08 Custos Luna wrote: Since you've all heard my original case on Mordanis, I will start with HiroPro. Hiro's D1 posts were pretty useless. His entire filter is mostly 1 to 2 liners. He jumps on the prplhz wagon. He wants to distance himself from his scumbuddy. Could you explain how this is scummy? Because if you can't it means your read on HiroPro is entirely based off prplhz's unknown alignment. On August 09 2012 13:51 Keirathi wrote: -- Mordanis -- His play fits the way he played as town in NMM XXII so far. However, his lack of scumhunting is kind of bothering me, because even despite the verbosity and the absurb "discussion" case to start the game, he still had a reasonable case (or two?) before day 1 deadline. He did end up having good reads in that game though, once you waded through all the verbosity, so hopefully he gets some cases out soon. What's your opinion on Mordanis in light of his marv case? Also Shiaopi in general. Catching up on DYH's case. | ||
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slOosh
3291 Posts
I think scum are quite unlikely to pull off a double lynch hammer ever since it is a 1 for 1 trade (cause it assumes you can get a mislynch without it) ... but DYH is definitely correct that giving lynch decision to your scum read makes absolutely no sense and is shirking responsibility. Shiaopi what do you make of the Mordanis - CL issue? | ||
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Keirathi
United States4679 Posts
On August 11 2012 13:18 slOosh wrote: What's your opinion on Mordanis in light of his marv case? Also Shiaopi in general. His case on marv actually shared a lot of similarities to my personal problems with marv's play this game. However, I realized that it wasn't worth it to post a case on him that late in the day because it would literally lead to nothing. The day was 99.9% going to come down to Forumite vs prplhz, so I personally spent my time weighing the merits of each of those cases. My problem with his case, though, was that he voted marv with a 100% throwaway vote. Marv wasn't going to get lynched, so what was the point? On the other hand, I find it extremely unlikely that scum Mordanis, being a relative newbie, would want to pick a fight with marv if he knew marv was town. Overall, I'm leaning slightly town on him still. Regarding ShiaoPi, when I was making my list of suspects for my night post, I didn't find anything particularly overtly scummy. His case on Mord didn't make much sense to me because the things he called Mord out for (being overly verbose, and wishy-washy) is just how Mord is, no matter what his alignment is. It's like calling Chezinu out for trolling. Overall, pretty thoroughly null, maybe leaning slightly on the red side. I wouldn't be interested in pushing him today as I feel there are much better candidates. I'm really intrigued by DYH's case on Custos. Something about his late day1 play was bothering me, but I couldn't pinpoint exactly what it was. Sheeping someone that you believe is scum makes ZERO FUCKING SENSE. He's moved up pretty high on my current scum list. | ||
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Keirathi
United States4679 Posts
##Vote Custos Luna | ||
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Mordanis
United States893 Posts
Your first post indicating that the people who switched their votes were suspicious was based on prplhz being scum. Your accusation of CL assumes that prplhz is town. So how are you leaning right now? | ||
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risk.nuke
Sweden2825 Posts
I like that. ##unvote: prplhz ##vote: Custos Luna | ||
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sciberbia
United States1359 Posts
on Custos Luna DYH made some good points. I have no idea why CL thought it was a good idea to let his primary scumread decide who got lynched yesterday. I'm very interested to hear CL's explanation of his actions. That said, I'm not comfortable with the overwhelming anti-CL sentiment in the thread right now. There are several things in his filter that suggest to me that he is townie. But before I try to dissuade anyone from voting him today, I'd like to see his response to DYH's case. on Shiaopi and DYH I voiced suspicions of both of these players yesterday, but I have changed my mind about both of them, and I'm not interested in lynching either of them today. I'll explain why I changed my mind if either of them becomes a lynch candidate. risk.nuke, slOosh, HiroPro, prplhz This is the group that I'd like us to lynch into today. I am neutral or leaning town on all of the more active players right now, and these 4 are not only lurky and therefore difficult to read, but they are also supposedly 'vets', which makes their lack of activity especially alarming. The lurkiness would stick out more, if not for the fact that all 4 of them are doing it.. slOosh and risk.nuke are the very definition of 'under the radar'. We've hardly talked about them at all. prplhz lurked most of the day yesterday, and still has yet to contribute much. HiroPro also lacks much content. Additionally there are 2 things in his filter I take issue with (his voteswitch and his confident assertion that CL is scum). Additionally, I want to point out of that CL is a vet who has recently emerged from lurkiness, and we are all biting his head off for his activity, when I think we really ought to be more concerned about the lurky vets right now. I really, really want to see more from all of these players. If I had to pick 1 person to lynch right now, it would probably be HiroPro. I'll post more about him a bit later, but I'm taking a break for now. I've been staring at filters and my notes for hours. | ||
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Keirathi
United States4679 Posts
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Custos Luna
United States96 Posts
Ok then, let's get to work. (My responses in his quote) On August 11 2012 11:31 DoYouHas wrote: Thank you thank you thank you Mordanis. Your point about me not including CL was absolutley right, and I was pondering my answer in the shower when I had a bit of a revelation. CL's voteswitch was unique from the others in a very specific way. He let you pick for him Mord. He implies multiple times that voting Forumite is what he wants to do, so why not actually do it? Actually, I stated many times that I was very unsure that Forumite was scum, which is why I left my vote on Mord for so long. His reason is that he fears that Mord will force the double lynch if he votes first. But is this a rational fear? no. If Mord is town then he would realize that everyone does not want a double lynch day1 and would not cause one. He probably would have sat on marv and been content that CL took the decision out of his hands. If Mord is scum then he would realize that the town is going to lynch him day2 if he forces a last minute double lynch and that a 2 for 1 trade isn't bad for town day1. Would the town chastise Mord for causing the double lynch?! Because, quite honestly, I have huge doubts whether they would. Neither alignment would have forced that double lynch in Mord's position. So why would CL put Mord (someone he is supposed to believe is scum, drastically increasing the chance of a mislynch) firmly in the driver's seat of yesterday's lynch? I can think of only one answer: CL knew that either choice would end in a townie flip and did not want to be tied to the blame for it. The language he uses leading up to the lynch only strengthens my belief that this is the case. + Show Spoiler + On August 09 2012 23:27 Custos Luna wrote: Firm stance on wanting to switch to Forum, immediately hands reins over to Mord to choose Forum or prplhz.EBWOP: DYH, looking back, that does appear to be fairly accurate. I had thought more people unvoted off prplhz and onto Forumite. If it is necessary, I will switch my vote from Mord to Forumite to avoid the double lynch depending on what is said in the next half hour. However, Mord, you need to decide. Forumite or prplhz. Make your choice. Do so before I am required to or the wrath of the moon will fall upon you. How is that at all a firm stance on wanting to switch to Forumite? I said "if it is necessary" because I did NOT necessarily want to switch Forumite. I had said that, at the time, Forumite looked scummier than prplhz because prplhz has had next to 0 presence all game, but I wasn't convinced that Forumite was scum. I had also stated my misgivings with a double lynch and that I would avoid doing that if I could. Mord had been avoiding the commitment all game and I was now forcing it upon him. I was hoping that the town would see what I saw and follow my train of thought, but clearly that is not the case. + Show Spoiler + On August 09 2012 23:36 Custos Luna wrote: Begins to distance himself from a Forumite lynch and even entertains double lynching.If one of prpl and Forumite are scum, the double lynch benefits us. However, I'm still not entirely convinced and I'm trying to figure out how to give us the best chance into this lynch. + Show Spoiler [Important One] + On August 09 2012 23:54 Custos Luna wrote: This is a very important post tone-wise. It starts with a mischievous tone with the bantering line of "I would never!". This bantering statement tells me that CL just relaxed a bit, or even is feeling a bit victorious. This is immediately is followed by an even bigger distancing statement, "Still unsure on Forumite. But I'm less sure on prpl". Then his 'moon' closing is even a bit off of the normal. Up until this point the moon comments by CL have been either normal signoffs or threats. This one is different, it reads to me like a self satisfied dig at Mord, which seems out of place until I fit it to my theory.I would never! Still unsure on Forumite. But I'm less sure on prpl, and I want to pad some security against a last minute swap/double lynch. Therefore: ##unvote Mordanis ##vote Forumite The moon is shocked that Mord has actually committed to something. Oh good lord this one is a stretch, but ok. My "moon" statements have all been flavor. Let's be serious, my name is fucking Custos Luna, I'm making some fun out of the game. This one post is no different. But you're right, I was feeling satisfaction. I was satisfied that Mord had been forced to make a choice. NB: responses in above spoilers ^^^ Custos Luna is SCUM ##Vote: Custos Luna And now to respond to this: On August 11 2012 09:07 Mordanis wrote: Waiting to see which bandwagon forms and jump in at around 3rd or 4th place? Why would you wait? Do you think that a 2 hour day cycle would benefit town? All waiting for the inevitable does is take away time from discussion, and make you look more scummy. If you're truly as transparent as you claim to be, you should be voting for your strongest of your 3 reads. Delaying only gives you the oppurtunity to jump on whatever bandwagon you please and takes time away. Which of prplhz, me, and Hiro are you most convinced is scum? Since you're pretty into commitment and transparency, I'm sure you'll be glad to tell us all. What's interesting about this whole thing is that since DYH has created his post on me, all 3 of you have completely flown under the radar. And I really wish I did have multiple votes. The sad thing is that nobody is remotely questioning prplhz or HiroPro. Neither of them have been present, and prplhz even promised to get back to us on his findings. ##vote HiroPro You need to stop lurking bro. | ||
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DoYouHas
United States1140 Posts
On August 11 2012 16:10 Mordanis wrote: DYH: Your first post indicating that the people who switched their votes were suspicious was based on prplhz being scum. Your accusation of CL assumes that prplhz is town. So how are you leaning right now? Right now CL is my best read. And if he is scum then chances are both yourself and prplhz are town. This isn't based on your play, but rather that I don't think that CL would have gone through that song and dance with a scumbuddy and he wouldn't have given a townie the option of killing his scumbuddy. Those are my assumptions right now, but it is pointless to work off them until I know I'm right about CL. @scib - You seem overly ready to let CL off the hook for his play that is not only bad, but implies knowledge that only scum would have. You want to focus on the people who aren't writing anything. I want to focus on the person I've caught being scummy. So unless CL has a damn good reason for his actions, I'm sticking with my vote. | ||
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DoYouHas
United States1140 Posts
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Keirathi
United States4679 Posts
The way I look at it is that you put yourself into a position that no matter what choice Mord made, nor what alignment that choice flipped, you could pressure him because of it. "Yea, ofc Mord picked the townie when I forced him to choose. He's scum." or "Yep, Mord was bussing because I was pressuring him to make a choice and he couldn't make the obvious wrong one. He's scum." Hell, you even said as much in your night post: On August 10 2012 23:08 Custos Luna wrote: He could bus prplhz to look more townie, but since he was forced to make the decision, it was not truly his own, and he would still be scummy in my eyes. It would also leave his team with 2 members after D1, a situation no scum team wants to be in. For his own safety, and the greatest benefit for his team, Mordanis was forced to vote Forumite. He ended up placing his vote because if there was a double lynch, it would have left his team at a disadvantage anyway. You backed Mord up against a wall that you planned to use to get him lynched. | ||
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Mordanis
United States893 Posts
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DoYouHas
United States1140 Posts
I can't say with absolute certainty about everyone else, but I know that I would absolutely lynch someone who caused the double lynch of 2 townies AND did it with a last minute vote switch. I would tunnel such a person into the ground. And maybe this is me having taken the temperature of the town incorrectly, but I don't think I would be the only one by a long shot. Oh, and then there is this: On August 08 2012 03:34 Mordanis wrote: Which, on top of everything else, would easily be enough to bury Mord if he double lynched and missed scum.Personally, I haven't had too much time to think about when/how to use the double lynch mechanic, but I can say that in my experience it happens fairly often that neither candidate up for lynching D1 is scum, and going from 9 town 3 scum D1 to 6 town 3 scum D2 would be pretty brutal. In short, I am strongly against D1 multi-lynching unless something very convincing happens to change my mind. | ||
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Custos Luna
United States96 Posts
But maybe you guys are right. Maybe it was poor decision making on my part. I never claimed to be perfect. That does not change the fact that you are all sheeping an easy bandwagon and completely ignoring all the right people. On August 12 2012 02:26 Mordanis wrote: CL: Why would you vote Hiro? Your case on him is based on prplhz being scum, so shouldn't you try to go for prplhz first, and if he does flip the way you expect him to go after Hiro at that point? Gahh you're not making sense... It is impossible for me to get information from people WHO DO NOT FUCKING TALK. It didn't matter which player my vote went on, I'm more than certain you had an argument for each choice I had. The sun speaks in deceit, the moon lies in truths. | ||
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slOosh
3291 Posts
On August 11 2012 21:16 sciberbia wrote: on Custos Luna That said, I'm not comfortable with the overwhelming anti-CL sentiment in the thread right now. There are several things in his filter that suggest to me that he is townie. But before I try to dissuade anyone from voting him today, I'd like to see his response to DYH's case. I think it would be good if you brought them out. I'm wavering on him because his end of N1 reads included HiroPro, whom I have also had suspicions on but not yet voiced. He did it before people started to openly express that suspicion, indicating that it was probably not a temperature gauge of picking who the town thinks is scummy and going after them. @CL - Could you clarify what exactly you found suspicious in HiroPro's posting? I want to see if your train of thought is similar to mine or if you just took a stab in the dark and got lucky. | ||
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Custos Luna
United States96 Posts
Also: On August 08 2012 05:26 HiroPro wrote: I'd rather have a confirmed town than a useless blue. And I'm not saying that they should claim now, just that saying that if someone is tracker they should strongly consider claiming at a crucial point (Mylo would be good) rather than waiting endlessly for a useful report that they probably won't get. has no issues with a blue claiming. Even though he states he doesn't necessarily want it to be now, he puts the idea there. In his EoN1 post: On August 11 2012 00:04 HiroPro wrote: I have a RL issue to take care of, so this will be my last post. I don't have the time to go through filters again but I'll summarize my thoughts. sciberbia is town. His case on Forumite had a lot of effort and he's been consistently townie throughout this game. Mordanis is probably town. His early case on ShiaoPi was not good at all and his posting style annoys me but I feel that he's legitametly sharing his thoughts and honestly I have a hard time believing that any scum team would let Mordanis post that ShiaoPi case. Luna is scum. No experienced player would make a post like the one he just did as town. He makes a big assumption in calling prplhz scum and then uses that to justify everything else. This is especially strange since all of yesterday he was saying prplhz's alignment is unclear. Shiao and Keirathi should be looked at very closely. Shiao pushed Mordanis for reasons that had nothing to do with him being scum and he seems very nervous and reluctant to call people scum (look at his night post on the Forumite voters). Keirathi is not sharing his ideas really at all. Marv is not playing the way that I'm used to seeing him as town, dunno about him. He says Mordanis is town, I'm scum, and makes the (very brief) case, and then Mordanis picks it right up once D2 starts. But, again, it's hard to do anything in a town environment in which I'm being tunnelled and no one is talking.@sloosh: His whole filter is filled with basically nothing. Asks questions, doesn't put forward much of his own opinions. Votes for prplhz, but it didn't take much convincing to get him onto Forumite once prplhz was set to be lynched. Also: On August 08 2012 05:26 HiroPro wrote: I'd rather have a confirmed town than a useless blue. And I'm not saying that they should claim now, just that saying that if someone is tracker they should strongly consider claiming at a crucial point (Mylo would be good) rather than waiting endlessly for a useful report that they probably won't get. has no issues with a blue claiming. Even though he states he doesn't necessarily want it to be now, he puts the idea there. In his EoN1 post: On August 11 2012 00:04 HiroPro wrote: I have a RL issue to take care of, so this will be my last post. I don't have the time to go through filters again but I'll summarize my thoughts. sciberbia is town. His case on Forumite had a lot of effort and he's been consistently townie throughout this game. Mordanis is probably town. His early case on ShiaoPi was not good at all and his posting style annoys me but I feel that he's legitametly sharing his thoughts and honestly I have a hard time believing that any scum team would let Mordanis post that ShiaoPi case. Luna is scum. No experienced player would make a post like the one he just did as town. He makes a big assumption in calling prplhz scum and then uses that to justify everything else. This is especially strange since all of yesterday he was saying prplhz's alignment is unclear. Shiao and Keirathi should be looked at very closely. Shiao pushed Mordanis for reasons that had nothing to do with him being scum and he seems very nervous and reluctant to call people scum (look at his night post on the Forumite voters). Keirathi is not sharing his ideas really at all. Marv is not playing the way that I'm used to seeing him as town, dunno about him. He says Mordanis is town, that I'm scum, and makes the (very brief) case, and then Mordanis picks it right up once D2 starts. But, again, it's hard to do anything in a town environment in which I'm being tunnelled and no one is talking. | ||
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