EPTDisclaimer: I will look into talis/solstice/Dropbear, but I doubt I will today, it's too late now (almost 1am basically) and I'm too tired and I'm still reading the thread rechecking filters every time an accusation is made to see if its content is acceptable or not and shit.
I Can't Believe it's not Themed MiniMafia - Page 42
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gonzaw
Uruguay4911 Posts
Disclaimer: I will look into talis/solstice/Dropbear, but I doubt I will today, it's too late now (almost 1am basically) and I'm too tired and I'm still reading the thread rechecking filters every time an accusation is made to see if its content is acceptable or not and shit. | ||
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gonzaw
Uruguay4911 Posts
For one, I now think you are town because of it. The way you pushed it makes me think you were actually paying attention to Dropbear's filter and not just skimming it to find something scummy about him to justify your vote. Plus some other little stuff that made my gut think you are town Other than that, I have a question here (playing a little bit of devil's advocate): S&B wrote: I contend that in general DropBear is not following the spirit of his pregame advice, even though he is mostly (but not nearly always) following the letter of it. What if Dropbear was just unable to control his own play to reflect that advice he stated? For instance, I think I could have posted a similar advice (consolidate posts, don't overpost, etc), but I don't think I could really force myself to follow it (man just look at my posts this game...it's like an addiction  ).If Dropbear was town, there would be a chance that he just posted that advice to indeed appear pro-town (and establish his innocence), or even if he actually believed it, but didn't have the willpower to follow it himself the way you stated it. With that in mind, does that change your read on him or not? /devil's advocate Finished reading the thread from where I left off: Hmm, I'm not finding Dropbear very suspicious. His defense of S&B's case and Milton seemed pretty good, some of the points against him are pretty bad (like talis accusing him of being scum because Dropbear shitted on his plan at one point), and his case against solstice seems legit. I may be looking this in a biased light since I'm getting the feeling both talis and solstice are scum, but I haven't really read their filters yet so I could reconsider it. Argg there are some tiny stuff that doesn't make me that comfortable with a talis lynch (part of his defense really, the reaction he had mostly, and some scum motivation I don't really find in some of the stuff he said). I may reconsider a solstice lynch instead, but I need to reread their filters first. Actually I read some other stuff (from austin or sciberbia I think) and I may not feel the same way right now and may actually want to lynch him. I'll get down to this after reading their filters (damn this shit is tiring). Things that definitely need to happen (IMO) before making any sort of sure assessment today:
About that last one: don't only come up with a "case" on someone, park your vote and just stay around, but comment on all the important discussions going on about certain players (dropbear, S&B, Mattchew, talis of course, solstice, etc) and on the specific discussions and points/accusations made and post your thoughts about them. For instance, what do you think of solstice's FoS of S&B and everybody else having a town read on him? What about Mattchew's "blunder" from D1, his explanation, my thoughts on it, and all the shit said? Stuff like that is stuff I'd like you to post your thoughts about. Not just post thoughts about EVERYTHING that happened in the history of the universe, but posting thoughts on the matters you think are important. I'd greatly help me (and other townies) get an accurate read on you I'd guess I'll expect the same from Milton, since I don't really have a good read on him. I have one other thing to say though: sciberbia, austin, you are so fucking town it hurts. For fucks sake the effort you are putting in this game is astonishing, like even when I try to read your posts with a "okay let's assume this guy is scum or could be scum, what agenda is he pushing?" mind I just can't do it taking all the stuff you go through and all the effort you put in getting accurate reads, sharing them and getting info out of people. If any of you is scum then you are playing fucking great and I wouldn't mind losing to you. So congratz on that.  Okay I'll go to bed now | ||
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gonzaw
Uruguay4911 Posts
On July 16 2012 12:41 gonzaw wrote: Before going into the talis/solstice stuff, a question for sciberbia: Why is it you think me and talis are "linked as scumbuddies"? Other than that what "gut feeling" do you get about me?  I found you pushing for my lynch there quite odd, since you never mentioned similar suspicions about me before. But I can't shake that feeling that if you actually tried to cast suspicion on me as scum...you wouldn't do it as half-assed as that (just saying "they are linked scumbuddies"). I don't think someone like you would go against someone like me based on those reasons alone, without actually trying to cast more suspicion on me (if that was your initial goal) or discrediting me somehow. I still want to hear your answer though. | ||
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gonzaw
Uruguay4911 Posts
Not "pushing for my lynch" but "finding me suspicious". | ||
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sciberbia
United States1359 Posts
On July 16 2012 13:48 gonzaw wrote: Why is it you think me and talis are "linked as scumbuddies"? Other than that what "gut feeling" do you get about me? OK I wasn't really planning on talking about you until after seeing talis flip red, but I guess it's only fair that I explain my suspicions. First thing to understand is that I'm basically assuming talis is red at this point. It's like a done deal in my head. I had no interest in lynching you today mainly because 1) I find you significantly less suspicious than talis 2) I think I'd have a much harder time getting you lynched than talis Anyway, your posting from D1 obviously reads very pro-town. But I've heard from people like marv, mattchew, and austin that your scum play is hardly distinguisable from your town play. So your huge amount of effort, good cases, good leadership, etc, isn't really making me read you as any more townie. I'll read one of your scum games tomorrow and see if I can discern the difference. Now as to reasons I have to be suspicious of you. you remind me a lot of mafia Xatalos from NMM XV in a couple diffent ways 1) Despite your apparent efforts, you have not actually succeeded much in contributing to scum lynches. On D1, your top suspects were austinmcc, s&b, and keirathi, all of which now seem likely town or at least null. You allowed the lynch on Vivax. On D2, you didn't really lead the lynch on talis (who I think is scum). So while you act very pro-town, I feel like we could have achieved the same two lynches without you being in the game. The burden of being a good player I suppose is that I want/expect town gonzaw to be winning the game for us. 2) Both of us have been pro-town, active consensus townreads (for the mostpart). But I've had the feeling that you are subtly buddying me. Like, before now, we have hardly been in direct conversation at all. But, you give a gut town read on me, and seem to change your reads based on what I say. In particular on D1, you seemed to change your reads on vivax and austinmcc to fit more with mine. Now on D2, I feel like your reads on s&b, mattchew, and talis have changed to align with mine as well. I find this 2nd point a little extra suspicious because talis blatantly tried to befriend me. It's as if there was some "buddy sciberbia" scum plan going on. some minor points -- your contradiction about keirathi that I pointed out earlier -- I 100% see you shooting marv last night if you are scum -- you talk about how shitty D1 was a lot. I read this as slightly scummy because it promotes an atmosphere of pessimism -- I didn't like how much shit you gave Mattchew for disappearing. Feels like an easy way to get a townie killed and take no actual responsibility for it the link with talis This only has relavance if talis indeed flips scum. I had this shitting-my-pants-with-excitement moment last night when I realized how you and talis both misspelt Milton's name as 'Milkton'. The timing of how it happened suggested to me that you were talking about him in the mafia QT. I got the idea for this from hegeo in NMM XIV who accused two players of both misspelling my name 'sciberia'. He turned out to be wrong, but the timing of how it happens in this game is more suspicious to me. After this, I read your filters side by side, and several minor things gave me the feeling that you two were mafia together. Perhpas it was just confirmation bias idk. I'll consider your case much more thoroughly tomorrow (assuming talis flips scum). | ||
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strongandbig
United States4858 Posts
On July 16 2012 08:50 s0Lstice wrote: I addressed your three points s&b. -'cases' instead scum read -'omgus when he defends himself -connections/entire scum team reads correct? You're right. This time it's my fault for not reading well enough. My bad. But to be fair you're wrong about the "omgus" thing. I did say your case on me smelled scummy, but that included addressing the points it contained and explaining why they were wrong. The difference is that when Risen was under suspicion, he didn't say "the points against me are wrong and here's why that's scummy," he said "you fools! look over there, it's scum!" | ||
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sciberbia
United States1359 Posts
@miltonkram/s&b Here they are, in brief: -- Talismania voted for dropbear, and I strongly believe talismania to be scum, so there is a point in dropbear's favor right there. -- first couple posts feel defiant and townie -- makes quick posts -- ninja'd by marv on the subject of vivax: seems genuine and townie -- I see what you mean about the suspicious conviction in vivax being scum, but I can also see this behavior from a townie -- his strong defense of miltonkram is a bit odd, but I don't see it as much of a scumtell -- surprise at almost getting lynched feels townie -- hasn't posted in like 14 hours (a bit disconcerting) -- I'm inclined to agree with gonzaw about him not being able to follow his own advice. I don't really see that as a scumtell. Perhaps a hypocrite tell. But that is all. My view on him hasn't changed all that much since yesterday. A few things I see as townie. A couple things a bit suspicious. My scumread on talis is making me lean townie on dropbear. I don't think you've posted since my case on talis but I'm optimistic that you'll agree with me. | ||
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sciberbia
United States1359 Posts
Good night. | ||
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strongandbig
United States4858 Posts
On July 15 2012 20:42 sciberbia wrote: I feel much better about my reads right now than I did D1. Here are top 3 most suspicious: 1) talismania: I really want to lynch him. 2) gonzaw: I have a few minor points against him, but other than that it's gut feeling. He reminds me a lot of mafia Xatalos from NMM XV. gonzaw and talis are linked as scumbuddies in my mind. I want to see talis flip red before we lynch gonzaw. 3) keirathi: still seems somewhat suspicious; mostly for reasons I've already stated I really need a break from this game so I'm just going to make a case on talismania before getting some much-needed sleep. It's almost 7am here. I'll post thoughts on other people tomorrow. My case on talismania fixation on his plan This has already been talked about in other cases; those of austinmcc and miltonkram I believe. It's a bit weird how wrapped up he gets in proposing his plan, defending his plan, and analyzing reactions to his plan. In particular, I find his assemblage of reactions suspicious: + Show Spoiler + On July 13 2012 00:43 talismania wrote: Reactions to talismania's Shitty Plan (for those who care) + Show Spoiler + marvellosity On July 12 2012 09:47 marvellosity wrote: naw, I'm not killing anyone based on one post right at the beginning of the game (especially as pregame was quite active/friendly, it spilled over) I'd rather lynch talis for his never-ending bullshit on listing names and reasons. Seriously, 24 hours into day 1 and we're supposed to come up with reasons on 3 different people for why they might be scum? It's just nonsense. Or... wait for it... I have an idea! If someone says something a person finds scummy, they can call them out and bring it to the thread! Wow, marv, you say - an amazing plan! People shouldn't be 'forced' to make effort, the making of the effort willingly is what helps gives us our reads on people. Predictably shits on it, suggests policy lynching me out of his annoyance that I keep proposing these dumb plans. gonzaw On July 12 2012 09:36 gonzaw wrote: So, if the lynch was right now I'd want to kill one of these 3 guys: You can see the recurring theme in all 3 (just 1 post, promising something/appearing they are eager to start but not doing anything else later). marv, talismania, anybody active, what do you think about these guys? If you had to kill one of them which one would you choose and why? (if you don't want to kill anyone then say so). Also this guy could die too: But at least he put a little bit more effort (although that's not town-telling) Dropbear and Milton haven't even posted, but well we can't do anything about it. Actually follows the plan - as I said seems rather townie. Especially the timing. Mattchew On July 12 2012 10:46 Mattchew wrote: Also, talis has the worst plan ever with his 3 people thing. That just allows people to half ass push some stupid reads and then connections theories run wild and everything turns to shit shits on it solstice On July 12 2012 11:04 s0Lstice wrote: Keirathi, assuming you are still around... why so verbose about lurkers? what do you think of talismania's plan? I actually don't see him reacting to it at all yet he asks keirathi about it. Interesting. He did react to gonzaw's post reacting to mine. austinmcc On July 12 2012 11:33 austinmcc wrote: That's because there's basically nothing to my first post except "Millers claim," which isn't helpful. What I can add is that I think talismania's 3-case plan is bad, but that seems to be the general sentiment. Forcing arbitrary requirements on everyone isn't really going to help us, and is going to clog up the thread later. People are going to make halfhearted cases to try to reach that number, someone will inevitably only find 1-2 people scummy and we'd end up in some "does x not making 3 cases = scummy?" discussion, and we also might end up lynching people that EVERYONE finds a little bit scummy rather than someone that a few people have a strong scumread on for good reasoning. Can also add that I haven't played with gonzaw, but I've obsed his recent games. Anyone here feel like they do a good job reading him, and if so, can you post some tips? I've found that I almost always end up reading him as scum, because he is active enough and posts enough that I keep finding scummy things to latch on to. Had him scum at the end of liar game just prior to the katina lynch, but also found him really scummy in the recent MTG because I felt like some of the plans he pushed hard were anti-town (check the obsqt early on, although I didn't post much there). So...any magical tricks for getting the right read on Gonzaw? Actually this reads scummy again on the second go-round too. He says he's about to "add" something but literally just copies/expands on what marv said and doesn't add anything at all. Keirathi On July 12 2012 11:54 Keirathi wrote: Sorry was getting dinner. I was verbose because I have some shared experience with sciberbia, whom I was replying to. I know that most (all?) of his TL mafia experience was in newbie games, and the dynamic is just different when you can assume that people know how to play the game. As far as talismania's plan, I feel like it makes it too easy for mafia to blend in. The more townies you have making arguments against other townies, the easier you can push mislynches and not have to take any blame for them. There are other things wrong with it, but Mattchew and austin beat me to it. No need rehashing what they said. Mmm I think this is innocuous. He might not even have responded if he hadn't been asked to. DropBear On July 12 2012 15:18 DropBear wrote: This is silly. This isn't going to happen and would just waste time. On the majority lynch, day 1 this tends to be a right kerfuffle. I can't think of any system that has ever worked on day 1 in games I have been part of. So fuck a system, we deal with it when the time comes. There should be solid candidates by then anyway. Actually this doesn't sit that well with me at all. Conversation had started to move on and then he brings it back to my plan and says the same shit everyone else did. I also don't like his misrepresentation of my views on the roleblocker's use of their power. strongandbig On July 12 2012 16:51 strongandbig wrote: Hey bros For people who weren't in ssb or mtg mafias, just wanted to let you guys know I am currently in Europe, where I don't have a cell phone data plan. This means I can only post when I have wifi, which is a change from my normal method. I've also been busy at work so please don't expect much from me before 8pm CET. Now for serious stuff: I'm going to be watching marv like a motherfuking hawk. I think hosts tend to try to "balance" games sometimes by tweaking their scum team selection; however, that can and has led to extra info from town through balance speculation. Marvellosity makes an extremely tempting player for hosts to do this kind of balancing, because his scum play is empirically very good, but he isn't a "veteran" so he's not likely to be the subject of balance speculation. I also suspect bugs of doing this kind of balancing. + Show Spoiler [reasons, from wheel of fortune.] + The last of his c++ games I played in was wheel of fortune. That was a stacked game and I was one of the worst players in it, although I did eventually manage to figure out the scum team (and got shot for having correct reads before I could push some of them). With the benefit of hindsight, that scum team looks almost perfectly balanced for the player base. Radfield was town, ace was scum. VE and Forumite were both good players, but only on the edge of being full-on vets. I firmly believe that town would have won that game if Radfield hadn't decided to use a DT check on Ace, who was godfather. That kind of closeness is the sign of a well-balanced game; and the odds that both town and scum would have their best player as their best power role are very small from pure chance. So what does this mean? I am NOT proposing to policy lynch marvellosity; if he's town he can be a great asset, and besides that's totally against the spirit of the game. What I AM saying is that I think when someone points out something scummy he does, we should take it pretty seriously. Pure chance wouldn't explain why he has rolled scum in something like half his games since our first game together (noob 6) while I have rolled it once - him being good and me not does explain that. NOW: having told you why you should pay attention, I'm going to point out something scummy marv has done. That thing is: propose/say he would be okay with lynching Talismania. Talismania's plan IS anti town. When Ace is host and he tells an obs QT how good a plan is for scum, you better believe he knows what he's talking about. Systematic case proposing plans give scum an excuse to make shitty reads and blend in, because everyone is making shitty cases and dumb reads. That kind of plan dilutes good information and adds bad information. HOWEVER: Talismania proposes this plan as town. All the time. Like, every game. Usually "pushing scummy plans" is a decent scum tell; but this specific player pushing this specific plan is not. And Marvellosity should know this. Marv has obs'd at least two games where Talismania proposed this plan or a variation of it (ssb, bangbang). Tali has proposed this in other games. Marv is the kind of player who pays attention; he should also know that I've pushed tali hard for these plans in the past, as have others. Marv putting tali forward as his first lynch candidates comes down to an easy push on an easy target for reasons he should know are bad. Marv, I'm watching you. + Show Spoiler [on Talismania, briefly] + I'm not saying tali is an easy target in general, like kenpachi or grush would be. He's not that kind of shitty player slash bad case magnet. It's just that for marv to propose him for lynch based on that plan is scummy. He's right about me always pushing this idea althoguh I think he's overreacting to marv's reaction. So actually not that many people commented on it even though I thought like everyone did oops. My views: scummy responses: austinmcc, dropbear null responses: marv, mattchew, keirathi, strongandbig townie response: gonzaw did not respond directly although was in the thread: Risen, sciberbia, solstice This just feels like one of those busy-work summaries that scum do to make it look like they are contributing. It also ties in with his insisting that his plan has promoted discussion. Overall, all this talk about the plan is unproductive and slightly suspicious. I like this point. There really was no need to go through every single person's reactions and compile them like that. On July 15 2012 20:42 sciberbia wrote: consistently wishy/washy Here are some examples of some wishy/washiness. Several of these raise yellow flags for me: + Show Spoiler + On July 13 2012 07:54 talismania wrote:I don't like milkton's last post either. There's a touch of omgus to my feelings there but I also think his argument he just made about me doesn't make much sense. Although come to think of it I dunno why he would come in out of the cold and start making a case on me does seem a bit random as scum. austin's reply to my poke at his post was rather overwrought which fits with my model of him as nervous scum but I guess that could just be the way the guy is too. solstice you said you know him - what do you make of it? + Show Spoiler + On July 14 2012 01:32 talismania wrote: solstice: I really like the case marv made on him, actually, but for some reason I don't know if I can move beyond a null on him. Like I think the first half of his filter is scummy (the part marv showed), the second half townie. Overall he is playing fairly relaxed, which is usually a town indicator as well. On the other hand he's also been fairly focused on just a couple players, which is a scum indicator. Keirathi: Well he's conditional town or conditional scum at this point. Like I think he was way too neutral in the beginning as someone else pointed out but he's also onto dropbear as I am. + Show Spoiler + On July 14 2012 01:43 talismania wrote: actually that is a decent question. I originally ranked them that way in my head from way back when I analyzed reactions to my posts and it sort of has stuck since then. Mmm I guess thinking it over I can't think of a fantastic reason for one over the other to be honest with you. + Show Spoiler + On July 14 2012 06:00 talismania wrote: @risen I don't know what to make of the risen v vivax to be honest. I liked your case against him but I'm still stuck on dropbear. and if dropbear is scum I can't see vivax being scum either. mmm I better not be tunneling again like I did last time to HiroPro. + Show Spoiler + On July 14 2012 06:08 talismania wrote: I dunno. I'm starting to think my case on austin is actually stronger than my case on dropbear was in the first place to be perfectly honest. However milton and keirathi also brought up good points on dropbear I think. Unless they were just trying to nudge a bandwagon along? Mmm shit. + Show Spoiler + On July 14 2012 06:39 talismania wrote: I kinda want to but I kinda don't. My feelings atm are that worst comes to worst, if I have to be wrong about someone I'd rather have a dead town dropbear than a dead town austin because at least austin seems to be trying. especially that last one. seriously wtf.. I like this point as well. I don't know why scum often seem wishy-washy like this, since it doesn't make sense - it's much better strategically for them to be confident and later say "I was wrong" than to hedge their bets, but that's not what they do in practice. I think it may be subconscious. I know I did it when I was scum, but I was a lot more noobish then than Talismania is now. On July 15 2012 20:42 sciberbia wrote: I don't like his approach to the lynch I feel like we were just lynching between a bunch of townies yesterday. If I had to guess, I'd say there is only 1 scum between our many lynch candidates: dropbear, vivax, miltonkram, s0Lstice, austinmcc, risen, and keirathi. So I think the mafia must have felt very at ease and not really cared too much who actually got lynched. Talis was just too calm in the hour leading up to the lynch. For example, what was he doing in between these two posts: + Show Spoiler + On July 14 2012 06:08 talismania wrote: I dunno. I'm starting to think my case on austin is actually stronger than my case on dropbear was in the first place to be perfectly honest. However milton and keirathi also brought up good points on dropbear I think. Unless they were just trying to nudge a bandwagon along? Mmm shit. Where has gonzaw gone? I kinda expect him to be in here cracking the whip near deadline. On July 14 2012 06:39 talismania wrote: I kinda want to but I kinda don't. My feelings atm are that worst comes to worst, if I have to be wrong about someone I'd rather have a dead town dropbear than a dead town austin because at least austin seems to be trying. This was a crucial 31 minutes. I don't think any of us actually had any idea who would end up being lynched at this time. But what was talis doing? Looks like he was just sitting around waiting for us to lynch a townie. In the last hour before the lynch, he really does nothing productive at all. He just says a bunch of neutralish things that don't really go anywhere. I like this point as well. Especially the fact that Talismania had been pushing dropbear, had even made a case on him and had his vote on him, and was "torn between dropbear and austin," and had never actually posted anything about how he felt about vivax, but didn't do anything to oppose the vivax lynch or to push the lynch off of vivax and onto dropbear. On July 15 2012 20:42 sciberbia wrote: I also have serious problems with this post just after we lynched vivax: For reference, here is the full extent of his defense on Vivax: Seriously? He says that he hopes he is "completely wrong" about vivax, but he hardly defended Vivax at all. If he really felt strongly about Vivax being town, he should have been positively shouting at people like me/marv/austin/strongandbig to put votes on dropbear instead of vivax, especially seeing as dropbear was supposedly his #1 scumread. But he was just saying useless shit like this: + Show Spoiler + On July 14 2012 06:39 talismania wrote: I kinda want to but I kinda don't. My feelings atm are that worst comes to worst, if I have to be wrong about someone I'd rather have a dead town dropbear than a dead town austin because at least austin seems to be trying. On July 14 2012 06:54 talismania wrote: argh wtf I don't want to swtich but I will if we need too. On July 14 2012 06:57 talismania wrote: jesus risen why are you so excited? According to what talis has said, he really thought dropbear was scum, and he really thought vivax was town. I was a hell of a lot less sure than talis supposedly was, and even I was more invested in the lynch. All of his posts leading up to the lynch seriously bother me. I don't agree with this point as much, since I believe Talismania meant "well I hope I was wrong and dropbear really is scum" not "well I hope I was wrong and vivax isn't really town." I see talis as having been neutral on vivax. However, it's still pretty damning that he didn't do anything to push the lynch off of his nullread and onto his scumread. On July 15 2012 20:42 sciberbia wrote: throws suspicion on easy targets (my townreads) He throws suspicion on a bunch of easy targets: dropbear, austin, risen, s0Lstice, milton. In fact, he threw suspicion onto just about every lynch candidate, and onto nobody that was not a lynch candidate. His reads are just going with the flow. I feel like he is just gonzaw's parrot. He's quite friendly with both gonzaw and marv (people with most thread control IMO). I think this point is null. The way Gonzaw plays, since he posts so much and still manages to be mostly articulate and reasonable, and since he's one of the more veteran players here, it really is easier as town to just go with him. IMO Gonzaw's blessing and curse as town is that his ability to lead a town through thread control and bullying developed a whole lot faster than his actual ability to find scum. On July 15 2012 20:42 sciberbia wrote: does not defend his townreads He never makes an against-the-grain townread. In his entire filter, I don't think he defends anybody at all. He supposedly had townreads on vivax, strongandbig, and mattchew, all 3 of which were under fire at some point, and none of which he did any defending for. This is suspicious to me. I have a really good feeling about this case. Can we please lynch talis today? ##Vote talismania As I said above, I dont see evidence in Talismania's filter that he really had a townread on Vivax, and neither Matt nor I were really in much danger of being lynched yesterday so there was no need to expend "thread capital" to defend us. This point is pretty null for me. Overall, I would be pretty happy with a Talismania lynch. However, as far as I can see the only reactions to my case on DropBear were his own defense against it and Gonzaw's saying his defense was pretty good. I'd like to hear from a few more people what they think about my points on "not following his own advice" and the way he defended his vote on vivax. Pre-edit: I see that scibebia posted about dropbear while I was writing this - I want to ask, why is his being a "consensus lynch target" a good thing? That would indicate to me that either he's town, or his scum buddies are bussing him and we won't gain as much info from his lynch. Note that I'm not saying that because there is consensus, it means he's town and we shouldn't lynch him; people sometimes do say that but I think it's pretty incorrect. However, scberbia I'm asking you specifically, what does his being a "consensus lynch target" mean and why do you say it there? | ||
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strongandbig
United States4858 Posts
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Keirathi
United States4679 Posts
I will make a quick note that that I'm pretty flippin' suspicious of sciberbia. I'll look more into the tali cases, and post my case against scib in the morning though. | ||
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austinmcc
United States6737 Posts
On July 16 2012 11:35 Risen wrote: What could I possibly say to confirm myself as towny to you? (whoever said he has one line that p much confirms him as town in my eyes) Not telling right now. As (maybe scummy) mattchew pointed out: On July 12 2012 22:52 Mattchew wrote: oh shit they can read this too cant they | ||
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s0Lstice
United States1832 Posts
Gonzaw, I read your posts about s&b from both perspectives, read sciberbia's and austin's thoughts on him. Before I had to cut out yesterday I starting doubting my read mainly because of how he was dealing with the whole mattchew issue. I agreed with him 100%. The points you made in his favor gonzaw...pointing out town motivation for a lot of the stuff he has been doing are, I now believe, the correct way to look at it. I went and looked at MTG, which I hadn't before, and I went away feeling like he is playing similarly here. I think also that you two just rub eachother the wrong way. If that is genuine, which I think it is, then his back and forth with you is just emotion, and isn't alignment indicative. Something else I forgot...in SSB he was a hydra with HiroPro, and was much busier at the beginning of the game. Risen died fairly early, so I can see how he may not have noticed. What's more, I have an updated read on Risen, which I will talk about in a bit. I happen to agree with s&b's suspicions, but for different reasons. To sum up, I am back to neutral/leaning town. s&b, I'd still like you to address the portion of my case dealing with your vote on Vivax day 1. Can you explain your thoughts there? ___________________________ Now on the cases on Talismania... I took a pretty hard look at his filter and the cases, and I support lynching him today This post sealed the deal for me. On July 13 2012 00:43 talismania wrote: Reactions to talismania's Shitty Plan (for those who care) + Show Spoiler + marvellosity On July 12 2012 09:47 marvellosity wrote: naw, I'm not killing anyone based on one post right at the beginning of the game (especially as pregame was quite active/friendly, it spilled over) I'd rather lynch talis for his never-ending bullshit on listing names and reasons. Seriously, 24 hours into day 1 and we're supposed to come up with reasons on 3 different people for why they might be scum? It's just nonsense. Or... wait for it... I have an idea! If someone says something a person finds scummy, they can call them out and bring it to the thread! Wow, marv, you say - an amazing plan! People shouldn't be 'forced' to make effort, the making of the effort willingly is what helps gives us our reads on people. Predictably shits on it, suggests policy lynching me out of his annoyance that I keep proposing these dumb plans. gonzaw On July 12 2012 09:36 gonzaw wrote: So, if the lynch was right now I'd want to kill one of these 3 guys: You can see the recurring theme in all 3 (just 1 post, promising something/appearing they are eager to start but not doing anything else later). marv, talismania, anybody active, what do you think about these guys? If you had to kill one of them which one would you choose and why? (if you don't want to kill anyone then say so). Also this guy could die too: But at least he put a little bit more effort (although that's not town-telling) Dropbear and Milton haven't even posted, but well we can't do anything about it. Actually follows the plan - as I said seems rather townie. Especially the timing. Mattchew On July 12 2012 10:46 Mattchew wrote: Also, talis has the worst plan ever with his 3 people thing. That just allows people to half ass push some stupid reads and then connections theories run wild and everything turns to shit shits on it solstice On July 12 2012 11:04 s0Lstice wrote: Keirathi, assuming you are still around... why so verbose about lurkers? what do you think of talismania's plan? I actually don't see him reacting to it at all yet he asks keirathi about it. Interesting. He did react to gonzaw's post reacting to mine. austinmcc On July 12 2012 11:33 austinmcc wrote: That's because there's basically nothing to my first post except "Millers claim," which isn't helpful. What I can add is that I think talismania's 3-case plan is bad, but that seems to be the general sentiment. Forcing arbitrary requirements on everyone isn't really going to help us, and is going to clog up the thread later. People are going to make halfhearted cases to try to reach that number, someone will inevitably only find 1-2 people scummy and we'd end up in some "does x not making 3 cases = scummy?" discussion, and we also might end up lynching people that EVERYONE finds a little bit scummy rather than someone that a few people have a strong scumread on for good reasoning. Can also add that I haven't played with gonzaw, but I've obsed his recent games. Anyone here feel like they do a good job reading him, and if so, can you post some tips? I've found that I almost always end up reading him as scum, because he is active enough and posts enough that I keep finding scummy things to latch on to. Had him scum at the end of liar game just prior to the katina lynch, but also found him really scummy in the recent MTG because I felt like some of the plans he pushed hard were anti-town (check the obsqt early on, although I didn't post much there). So...any magical tricks for getting the right read on Gonzaw? Actually this reads scummy again on the second go-round too. He says he's about to "add" something but literally just copies/expands on what marv said and doesn't add anything at all. Keirathi On July 12 2012 11:54 Keirathi wrote: Sorry was getting dinner. I was verbose because I have some shared experience with sciberbia, whom I was replying to. I know that most (all?) of his TL mafia experience was in newbie games, and the dynamic is just different when you can assume that people know how to play the game. As far as talismania's plan, I feel like it makes it too easy for mafia to blend in. The more townies you have making arguments against other townies, the easier you can push mislynches and not have to take any blame for them. There are other things wrong with it, but Mattchew and austin beat me to it. No need rehashing what they said. Mmm I think this is innocuous. He might not even have responded if he hadn't been asked to. DropBear On July 12 2012 15:18 DropBear wrote: This is silly. This isn't going to happen and would just waste time. On the majority lynch, day 1 this tends to be a right kerfuffle. I can't think of any system that has ever worked on day 1 in games I have been part of. So fuck a system, we deal with it when the time comes. There should be solid candidates by then anyway. Actually this doesn't sit that well with me at all. Conversation had started to move on and then he brings it back to my plan and says the same shit everyone else did. I also don't like his misrepresentation of my views on the roleblocker's use of their power. strongandbig On July 12 2012 16:51 strongandbig wrote: Hey bros For people who weren't in ssb or mtg mafias, just wanted to let you guys know I am currently in Europe, where I don't have a cell phone data plan. This means I can only post when I have wifi, which is a change from my normal method. I've also been busy at work so please don't expect much from me before 8pm CET. Now for serious stuff: I'm going to be watching marv like a motherfuking hawk. I think hosts tend to try to "balance" games sometimes by tweaking their scum team selection; however, that can and has led to extra info from town through balance speculation. Marvellosity makes an extremely tempting player for hosts to do this kind of balancing, because his scum play is empirically very good, but he isn't a "veteran" so he's not likely to be the subject of balance speculation. I also suspect bugs of doing this kind of balancing. + Show Spoiler [reasons, from wheel of fortune.] + The last of his c++ games I played in was wheel of fortune. That was a stacked game and I was one of the worst players in it, although I did eventually manage to figure out the scum team (and got shot for having correct reads before I could push some of them). With the benefit of hindsight, that scum team looks almost perfectly balanced for the player base. Radfield was town, ace was scum. VE and Forumite were both good players, but only on the edge of being full-on vets. I firmly believe that town would have won that game if Radfield hadn't decided to use a DT check on Ace, who was godfather. That kind of closeness is the sign of a well-balanced game; and the odds that both town and scum would have their best player as their best power role are very small from pure chance. So what does this mean? I am NOT proposing to policy lynch marvellosity; if he's town he can be a great asset, and besides that's totally against the spirit of the game. What I AM saying is that I think when someone points out something scummy he does, we should take it pretty seriously. Pure chance wouldn't explain why he has rolled scum in something like half his games since our first game together (noob 6) while I have rolled it once - him being good and me not does explain that. NOW: having told you why you should pay attention, I'm going to point out something scummy marv has done. That thing is: propose/say he would be okay with lynching Talismania. Talismania's plan IS anti town. When Ace is host and he tells an obs QT how good a plan is for scum, you better believe he knows what he's talking about. Systematic case proposing plans give scum an excuse to make shitty reads and blend in, because everyone is making shitty cases and dumb reads. That kind of plan dilutes good information and adds bad information. HOWEVER: Talismania proposes this plan as town. All the time. Like, every game. Usually "pushing scummy plans" is a decent scum tell; but this specific player pushing this specific plan is not. And Marvellosity should know this. Marv has obs'd at least two games where Talismania proposed this plan or a variation of it (ssb, bangbang). Tali has proposed this in other games. Marv is the kind of player who pays attention; he should also know that I've pushed tali hard for these plans in the past, as have others. Marv putting tali forward as his first lynch candidates comes down to an easy push on an easy target for reasons he should know are bad. Marv, I'm watching you. + Show Spoiler [on Talismania, briefly] + I'm not saying tali is an easy target in general, like kenpachi or grush would be. He's not that kind of shitty player slash bad case magnet. It's just that for marv to propose him for lynch based on that plan is scummy. He's right about me always pushing this idea althoguh I think he's overreacting to marv's reaction. So actually not that many people commented on it even though I thought like everyone did oops. My views: scummy responses: austinmcc, dropbear null responses: marv, mattchew, keirathi, strongandbig townie response: gonzaw did not respond directly although was in the thread: Risen, sciberbia, solstice This is so, so scummy looking. I hope to god this isn't a repeat of SSB, but I seriously can't ignore this post. I also agree strongly with Mattchew's point about Talis' case on Dropbear looking contrived/manufactured. I agree strongly with sciberbia's point about Talis' treatment of Vivax. ______________________________ I very badly want to kill Risen On July 14 2012 07:07 Risen wrote: You think you'll feel bad? I'm probably going to die if Viv flips town to a vig shot.... On July 14 2012 07:22 Risen wrote: Well... fuck. No way... Vivax you seriously, seriously need to read the how to be town threads and fix your posting. On July 14 2012 07:23 Risen wrote: Also, every single read I had in this game centered on Vivax being scum. So now I don't have any reads, I'm hungover, I'm tired, I have to do laundry... Today has been a bad day. I'm so demoralized I don't even want to play anymore On July 16 2012 04:40 Risen wrote: I'm super sad I supported mattchew as town earlier. He's been playing pretty much just like he did as scum in his last game with me, that is, being hella lurky and trying to fly under the radar. Also, I don't know how to feel about the tali or DropBear case. Marv is confirmed towny and he really disliked tali (I think, maybe it was DB but I remember it being tali I just woke up and will go through the filters). I literally have nothing so I might just end up going with what marv wanted. I'm so unconfident in myself now it's kind of funny rofl (as opposed to my usualy self). I still don't like the people who defended vivax strongly, though. I just can't wrap my head around him being a townie... I'm bad, and I should feel bad :< On July 16 2012 04:44 Risen wrote: Going to lunch with my mentee, going to the store, then I'll be back. I'll go through and rebuild everything with Viv as a townie in mind (still... STILL hurts me on the inside that he was town and I could be so wrong. I have never felt so certain of someone being scum) These posts are scummy as shit. The amount of guilt he professes to be feeling is waaaaay out of proportion. He keeps harping on it because he is extra sensitive to the fact that he just lead a mislynch as scum. He can't help but address it over and over, even though nobody is really putting the skids to him that hard. This is textbook scum auto-guilt. His play-by-play leading up the lynch was pretty scummy too. As I said earlier, I don't think anyone on the town side was feeling anything but anxiety during the day 1 lynch. Also, he didn't try hard to push people on to Vivax, when votes on Dropbear were making it a pretty close race. He was just content to comment boisterously about the action. His emotion/behavior here match up pretty well with a scummer seeing two townies being up for lynch. These two things are more than enough for me to want to kill him. I'm cool with killing Talis today, but I want Risen to be next. ##vote talismania | ||
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sciberbia
United States1359 Posts
On July 16 2012 17:28 strongandbig wrote: Pre-edit: I see that scibebia posted about dropbear while I was writing this - I want to ask, why is his being a "consensus lynch target" a good thing? That would indicate to me that either he's town, or his scum buddies are bussing him and we won't gain as much info from his lynch. Note that I'm not saying that because there is consensus, it means he's town and we shouldn't lynch him; people sometimes do say that but I think it's pretty incorrect. However, scberbia I'm asking you specifically, what does his being a "consensus lynch target" mean and why do you say it there? what "consensus lynch target means" It means that not only do I think he is scum, but pretty much everybody thinks he is scum. Since the consensus is that he is scum, it makes sense to lynch him. why I said it there 1) To point out that everyone is pretty much agreed on lynching talis 2) To make sure people realize that talis is probably getting lynched today, and therefore they should make giving their thoughts on him a priority | ||
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s0Lstice
United States1832 Posts
sciberbia I want to know what you think of Risen as well | ||
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sciberbia
United States1359 Posts
I'm at work right now so don't have time to go into too much detail. In short, I was leaning town on him after D1, but I agree that his D2 play is suspicious. I'll reconsider the case against him tonight. | ||
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DropBear
Australia4261 Posts
General consensus is that talismania is dying. I agree that he is dodgy as fuck but I'm also wary about how little opposition his lynch is getting. | ||
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DropBear
Australia4261 Posts
solstice you have sheeped the tali lynch really hard and have offered no response to my questioning of your Risen case on day 1, which was highly questionable. You are either scum falling in line to bus your doomed buddy or scum jumping on the bandwagon to lynch a townie as far as I am concerned. My vote is staying where it is. | ||
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DropBear
Australia4261 Posts
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s0Lstice
United States1832 Posts
Do you think Talis may be town? | ||
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