EPTNewbie Mini Mafia XX - Page 25
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YourHarry
United States1152 Posts
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Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
@ YourHarry - If you are "convinced" by jingle, please post why. Its important to read deeply into his defense to determine innocence or guilt. Remember, several players were "convinced" by Hopeless1der's post to my accusations. Upon careful analysis however (my post HERE), Hopeless's defense post contained a lot of mafia motive and logic. While the posting tone between me and Jingle has considerably changed in the past few hours, that's nowhere near grounds to determine his innocence. So far, my case against him still stands, and he has yet to answer a lot of the incriminating details against him. I ask you to withhold judgement until we can extract the proper answers. | ||
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Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
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JingleHell
United States11308 Posts
If you remain intent on screaming that I'm scum after I've explained myself as much as I have, I'm probably not going to convince you, because now you're looking at everything with a severe confirmation bias. Move on to another case, or cast your vote on me, I don't care which, but frankly, I see no value in continuing this line of discussion. | ||
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Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
I don't intend on moving to another line of questioning. As it stands, your defense has been very similar to Hopeless1der's so far - you're deflecting conversation, avoiding difficult questions, and your main defense has comprised of summary of easy/irrelevant questions. | ||
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JingleHell
United States11308 Posts
On July 08 2012 05:52 Hapahauli wrote: I'm just asking you to summarize your thoughts with like 2-3 bullet points on your Hopeless meta case. your main defense has comprised of summary of easy/irrelevant questions. Make up your mind. This is a fairly clear indicator of the confirmation bias I've already called you out for. You're so intent on proving yourself right about me, that you can't even see how you're leaving no rational responses for me. That's like asking "does your wife know you're cheating on her?". There's no right answer. No matter what I say, you see guilt. As it turns out, it's actually possible for you to understand my point of view without agreeing with it. But you're refusing to do so, even though I've laid it out as simply as possible. Why would I bother trying to convince you? This will be my last response to you, until and unless you stop trying to "trick" me into some sort of confession, and start making some sort of sense. Meaning, most likely, this will just be my last response to you. | ||
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Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
First you dismiss your stance on hopeless as a misread. Note the lack of reasoning. Again, my misread on Hopeless was due to meta analysis from a currently non-concluded game. Hence why I said multiple times I wasn't going to try and force that opinion. I then press you for your read, and you link to one of your early game posts: On July 08 2012 03:37 JingleHell wrote: That's on page 2 of my filter here. The discussion came from the first Day/Night cycle in XIX, and was incredibly long, but that's the short version of it. Next I point out that your posts are misleading and false (HERE). You reply with a vague and false clarification, linking me to your entire pregame filter. On July 08 2012 04:02 JingleHell wrote: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=347856&user=159089¤tpage=3 Pages 3 and 4 of my filter, it's a LOT of content. I ended up the N1 NK. And your second bolded part, I was referring to this game, he seemed more willing to post a lot than he did in the early stages of XIX D1. Which is true. After I post that the red part is false and that you change your tone on Hopeless considerably from your previous stance (posting alot =/= posting prolific), I ask you for a summary of your meta (which you simply linked to a filter and STILL haven't explained beyond "prolific posting"). You then flip out: On July 08 2012 05:28 JingleHell wrote: I'm actually sick of repeating myself already, why would I spend six hours dissecting 48 hours worth of posting? If you remain intent on screaming that I'm scum after I've explained myself as much as I have, I'm probably not going to convince you, because now you're looking at everything with a severe confirmation bias. Move on to another case, or cast your vote on me, I don't care which, but frankly, I see no value in continuing this line of discussion. You're refusing to answer difficult questions and constantly avoid providing a concise summary of your case defending hopeless. This is because you had no case and are dodging the issue. This is Mafia Behavior. | ||
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YourHarry
United States1152 Posts
On July 08 2012 05:23 Hapahauli wrote: Oh wow I got sniped. GG harry =P Lol. This gave me the chills. I thought you got your night report to find out that you were targeted or something. In fact, you were talking about me beating you in posting on the top of the page. No role fishing here. No scum slip here. | ||
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Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
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Mackin
Ireland181 Posts
I'm just reading through now and thoughts will be posted very soon! | ||
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Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
Since we're approaching the deadline and I've posted a lot of evidence against Jingle already, I'd like to point some differences between this game and his townie-meta in Newbie Mini Mafia XIX. (I'll be ignoring his Mafia Meta in XVIII, since he was a replacement player and therefore was under much different circumstances/pressure. I haven't done a thorough read-through of XVIII tbh) Earlier, I made the case that Jingle's cases and defenses were based on "feelings" and vauge suspicion (you can find that HERE). In the brief analysis below, I'm going to show that his current-meta is from townie-JingleHell in XIX in a mafia-oriented way. Townie Jingle is capable of analyzing and breaking down text (CASE HERE). Note that he breaks down posts looking for mafia logic and suspicion - he is very clear about his reads and does not rely on meta at all. In addition, the reads he suggests in this post in the current game are the polar opposite of his analysis meta as a townie. Pushing so aggressively for the lynch of Lazer was very different from that of Townie Jingle. A quick look at Townie JIngle's 3rd page filter will show you that Jingle is not afraid to explore other cases, throw his vote around, and change his vote to a better case. This is the polar opposite of Jingle in this game, who pushed relentlessly for the lynch of Lazer despite a good case on Hopeless. As mentioned in my previous analysis, he doesn't even consider an analysis of Hopeless, and pushes for Lazer. Once again, JingleHell's actions fit the description of a Mafia member who tried to push the lynch of Lazer over his scumbuddy. | ||
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Lazermonkey
Sweden2176 Posts
On July 07 2012 10:18 Radfield wrote: Night 1 Vote Count
Lazermonkey (5): Release, JingleHell, JieXian, The_Zen_Man, Hopeless1der YourHarry (1): Mackin Hopeless1der, Mafia Role Cop has been lynched! Night 1 ends in 24 hours at 01:00 GMT (+00:00). Please ensure you send all night actions to BOTH myself and Marvellosity. I am still trying to replace Khorrus, however if I can't find a replacement before Day 2 I will modkill him. The 2 things we can conclude out of this is that. 1.) It was a close voting 2.)We lynched a mafia. Combine this with the fact that I know 100% that I am VT. Let's just consider PURE LOGIC now, and completely ignore reads. In such a close voting I'd say it's very unlikely that the two remaining scum is among those who voted for me. There is obviously still a chance that Mackin and Khorrus were scum because that they were simply not pressent at the time of the lynch. So based only on logic I think it's safe to say that the remaining 2 scum is among:Release, JingleHell, JieXian, The_Zen_Man, Khorrus(replacement) and Mackin. So, if you belive that I am townie, then you should by all means also belive that this is true. Actually I've chanced my mind on Jingle. Why is that? Well his play before the lynch didn't look like scum play at all to me. Scum does know who the other scum is and also who are the townies. On July 07 2012 06:50 JingleHell wrote: This to me seems very townie. He seems very convinced that I am townie. I guess you could explain this from a scum point of view by saying he that he wanted to trade. However, I don't think this is the best idea. In the best case scenario They would've gone 1vs3(assuming no medic blocks). This wouldv'e left scum in a 2 vs 7 situation. Not super good odds by any meansHow about a little bet, Hapahauli. If Lazer flips Red, we lynch you tomorrow for your (getting ridiculous) defense of him. If he flips town, lynch me. On July 07 2012 10:16 JingleHell wrote: This one is written just a few minutes before deadline. Why would scum write this? If he would've been scum he would already know that Hope would flip red and this post would make him look really bad. He's set to be lynched. Sounds defeated to me. I'm mostly wondering how you could see me and Lazer being on the same side, when I'm a heavy part of the drive behind the votes on him. Which almost saved hopeless. Now if hopeless flips red, which I doubt, I could see me looking bad, but if he flips green, I'm looking at Hapa, who was overly defending Lazer by pushing hopeless. On July 07 2012 10:18 JingleHell wrote: His last post before the flip. Once again, explain this post from a scum point of view. It doesn't make any sense at all. Oh, am I going to die at the end of the night for it, Hapa? I would expect you to be in a position to know. Hell, if Hopeless flips green, you're a bigger target than Lazer, because looking like you want to save someone who isn't scum could easily be a scum tactic to push a second mislynch, if things were townie vs townie. I've actually flipped my opinion completely on Jingle. Yes, he have not been contributing at all from a town perspective. In fact he did the opposite. He pushed me, didn't post any reads before he absolutely forced to by me. He is shitting up the thread and doesn't back up his suspiciouns by much more than OMGUS. But it doesn't make sense at all for him to post such post. He could simply ignore the matter and not post anything, or maybe even better: post soft suspicion on Hope. If Jingle is scum, he is possibly the worst scum ever. I find it way more likely that he is semi bad townie rather than super duper bad scum. A player that have been almost forgotten, but in my eyes looks by far the most suspicious after this lynch is The_Zen_Man! I have already been critizising Zen_Man earlier in the game. He ignored everything the first 10 and instead posted a semi long post on Mackin. Mackin had been lurking, and his only post at that point wasn't very good. Zen took a really easy stance here, trying to push the lurker. He also had some strange comments on how scum plays. If you look at mine/his filter these things are easy to look up. However, they are hardly the reason for me saying that Zen is BY FAR my strongest scum read atm. On July 06 2012 23:46 The_Zen_Man wrote: Personally I don't think you should look to much into Meta, especially if you have been misslynched D1 last game. But w/e. I don't really care too much about this.I have read the Hapahauli and Hopless discussion. What particularly caught my eye was Hapas post on Hopeless previous behaviour in a game where he was town, and what a sharp contrast it was too his play in this game. Hopeless is Mafia. ##Vote Hopeless1der Btw, i am going to be away for about 2 hours. Voting Hope. Note the tone. He IS mafia. Then he posts this case against me. On July 07 2012 03:12 The_Zen_Man wrote: I will not comment the case as a whole, Hapa has already done that. I can comment on it as well tomorrow if you would really like that Zen. However, note the last part. He finds us both equally scummy. This must mean that I am scum as well judging by your last post. He says that because we are equally scummy he strugles to chose who to vote. This is the money part. He knows Hope is in shitloads of trouble and can if possible always buss him. At the same time, if the vote would be going my way, he can vote me.My analysis of Lazermonkey. This was his first post in the game. He start by making a big post and trying to look like someone who is helping town by giving them advice, such as this. I wont go into to much detail into this post, as it has already been talked about a lot. After a few post, when jingle starts to get suspicous of him, Lazer writes a very long case. It may look like it is big, but it has almost no substance at all. He simply states that there is no threat of bandwagoning. Mafia tend to want to do this, posting long cases but with little of worth, so that it looks good. .He also proceds to vote on Jingle. Lazer proceds to tunnel Jingle for the rest of the game. Here, he effectively turned the attention from him and to Jingle. Lazer also post some aggressive post to anyone who is somewhat suspicous of him. Aside from his tunneling jingle, he agrees of what other peoples scumtells are. In this post, he basically repeats what Hapa said, and makes it look like it is somewhat orignal. Mafia often tend to agree with other players, so that those players like them more and agrees with them in a discussion. Then he post this. After i had only posted one post on Mackin, he makes it bigger than it is and says i am "overreading". Mafia often tend to blow stuff up, and make other people look bad (and therefore make themselve look better). He also says that talking about how mafia will play is impossibble, but that would in fact mean that analyzing is pointless. If we would follow his advice, no one should analyze. Very scummy. Here, Lazer states his support for yet another person who seems scummy. As i said before, agreeing with everyone is a way for mafia to win favor among town. Lazer then goes on to a back and forth post with Jingle, with not posting much of worth. But something that was really scummy for me in that post was this. This post had a really scummy sentence, "I will push people I think are scummy. If they flip green because they play bad, i can't be blamed for that". This is an excuse mafia use often when they are pushing a mislynch. Often, it is not because bad play but because mafia manipulated the game. Lazer then says that he leaves and continues posting from his phone. As of now, i am equally suspicous of Lazer as i am Hopeless, still unsure of who to vote for. Other players opinions are welcome. But for now ##FoS Lazermonkey On July 07 2012 05:52 The_Zen_Man wrote: The timing is the key part of this. At the point where he threw down the vote it was 4-2 in favour of me getting lynched. Essentially 5-3 as me and Hapa were going to vote each other no matter what. Things were looking reeeal good for Hope at this point. Also, why would he change his vote if he is sure that hope is mafia?I have already stated my reasons for doing this in my analysis, i was just unsure if i should do this. But i have made up my mind ##Vote Lazermonkey While Zen_Man havn't really contributed to town in alot of ways, his acting during the lynch is what makes him look SUPER SUSPICIOUS rather than suspicious. | ||
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Release
United States4397 Posts
so far, Hapa has been very good on fighting against scummy plays, making his analyses and i would hope that others follow suit. Especially jingle. | ||
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Radfield
Canada2720 Posts
Day 2! The town woke up slowly after a peaceful night. Nothing makes you sleep soundly like lynching dirty scum. Alas, when the town gathered one of their number was missing. A search turned up TMG26's body in a drainage ditch just south of his house! However his was not the only body! TMG26 has been murdered!! Day 2 ends in 48 hours at 01:00 GMT (+00:00) on Monday night. Khorrus, Mafia Godfather has been modkilled! | ||
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Lazermonkey
Sweden2176 Posts
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Mackin
Ireland181 Posts
Evul has his case/claim now for being pro-town with his vote being important on the day 1 lynching. I don't see him as too suspicious so far. Zen_man I feel is pro town. Either that or he's good mafia. Don't know why he has such a strong hate against Lazer but I'm gonna look into Lazer in some more detail later. Lazer: I don't see anything from his posts that are particularly mafia so far. I really don't understand where people got off accusing him. I would like someone to point out the traits people see in him as mafia. Release: Literally no idea, from what he has posted I didn't learn much except for the fact he near toppled over back at end of D1 voting. It was so so good Hopeless was mafia because it said something about Release's read. YourHarry: My vote on him probably gave a lot of people a WTF type feeling. I just had some feeling that he was scum but since voting I'm not so sure. Hapa: Is being unbelievably good townie. I find it funny though because I've came up with some crazy theories on how he could be the Godfather who wanted to bus one of his men early to add confidence to his name, then acts and "is" pro town until the end where you discover he's really been the mastermind behind it all. I severely doubt this is the case though because he literally has provided really really good information and reads on each person, especially on Hopeless. It's easy to say now, but had I seen Hapa's post on why Hopeless had to go I would've switched votes... though I was unavailable at the time (which shouldn't be an issue anymore) Jingle: Scummy or not? Recently, if you look Jingle gets annoyingly defensive and suspicious every time he posted in response to grilling from Hapa. This could be for either two things - straight up scum or else genuine townie getting so annoyed. I don't know which way to take this but I'll say he's not on my townie list  Bass: From what he has posted so far, I'm thinking he's town but meeeh... TMG: Meeh - I'll do one later Jie: Also do one later, but slightest scum vibes. | ||
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Mackin
Ireland181 Posts
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Mackin
Ireland181 Posts
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Release
United States4397 Posts
the remaining 2 scum is among:Release, JingleHell, JieXian, The_Zen_Man, Khorrus(replacement) and Mackin These are 100% contradictory and mentally retarded. Correct me if i'm missing something but you just said "no they're not" and "yes they are" in close succession | ||
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Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
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