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On June 28 2012 11:06 wherebugsgo wrote:
Think about it from this perspective (this is all I'll say on the matter):
If in a normal situation a cop died and didn't provide checks would you ask whether the cop used his actions? Obviously not.
So what difference is there in this situation? What does the knowledge that a cop used his action give you?
It's not like knowing that will tell you who he used his action on.
I'd be dead certain (unless the player is a mental case) that he used his night action. This means that I can look through his posts and try to discern who he checked. Now, being uncertain that he even checked someone, I can't do that. Anyway, this subject is more fit for post game discussion, but thanks for trying to explain your answer. I understand that it is a hard thing to do when you are the host of a game that is still going on. I'd be happy to hear more of your thoughts behind your decision once the game is over.
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My strongest scum read is rastaban. His first post (the overly cautious one) and his hilariously bad case on risk.nuke have already been examined thoroughly, and thusly I'll omit them from this post. I'll only say that I find them both quite scummy.
On June 23 2012 03:47 rastaban wrote:Show nested quote +On June 23 2012 03:19 Snarfs wrote:On June 23 2012 03:08 rastaban wrote:
Wow, really surprised no one sees the vote switching without any reason at all not scummy. My case is misconstrued as "risk.nuke has not yet posted anything of value." That would be a case against
Also I never saw Sloosh's post as it took me far longer than 30 minutes to work up a case against risk. You know why ,because I don't throw accusations around wildly until I have convinced myself.
Last game as a doctor I had no gun and so I had to mafia reads and a town read but since it was my first game in a year and I was afraid that without a gun if I pushed too hard they would want me to shoot and out my role. Well no one seemed to care about my cases but me but in the end I was correct.
Day 1 of Bang Bang I posted this: "Meapak_Ziphh, your filter looked really bad last night tons of filler and no posts contributing to discussion, but you seem to be posting more like your normal self today. Mind explaining what was going on?" I actually had an entire case typed up like I just did for risk and yet I decided to go easy and let him slide, well guess what he was GF. If I had pushed for him like I thought I should have day 1 we might have outed GF immediately.
This game I am trying something different since I don't worry about having a gun, I am going to push my scum reads and try and save my town reads. If I get lynched for that, at least town gets a trail votes to follow that led up to it.
Sorry but this is so similar to bang bang's Gonzaw fiasco where everyone clamored about him being red while I thought the case against him was awful, he gets shot flips blue and since it was almost all townies pushing the lynch we started the next day clueless as to where to begin which is why I had to post the Cephiro case linked above to begin with. So yeah, I stand by thinking risk is our best candidate and want him lynched. I am putting forward someone who is actually scummy instead of the marv case where half of it is based on his reaction to a leading question. Why risk.nuke and not MrZentor? Can you demonstrate the differences you see which makes risk.nuke the more likely scum, in your opinion? Because I feel they have played a similar game up until now. When I review MrZentor I see someone who hasn't contributed much, which, while scummy, isn't enough to lynch yet in my opinion.,Especially when he commits to delivering something tomorrow. I have seen players like Foolishness say the same thing so I am inclined to give him till tomorrow before I make my Judgment on him. I feel like Nuke hasn't just been a null, like MrZentor, by not contributing, but that his actions further scum agendas. There are legitimate reasons a town player may not contribute day 1, but I can't find legitimate town reasons for Risks actions. His "lol, ok #1 scum response ##Vote: marvellosity" Seems like such a cop out to get a vote on marv, instead of finding for a reason himself or even investigating it. It is the combination of not contributing but still trying to push a lynch that I find very questionable and seperated him from MrZ. What does town gain by him voting Klaust later, but not mentioning why he is doing it? The huge time gap, is so strange as well. I can see not being caught up and posting a quick one liner, but to be aware enough that one of the players still needs to post, to take your vote off someone you said was scummy, and yet not take even a moment to say something seems strange to me. I would like to hear from him on these actions and why he did it, maybe I am missing something but I feel that his actions make him extremely suspicious.
So, what sets them apart is:
1. MrZentor has promised analysis (which is a null tell), while risk.nuke didn't.
2. risk.nuke's quite clearly unserious vote on marvellosity (null tell).
3. Somehow risk.nuke's play (i.e. posting some insignificant stuff early during D1, throwing an unserious vote on marv and pressure voting VK) "furthers scum agendas". What the fuck? He didn't even remotely influence the town in any way, and if lurking this early is furthering scum agendas, every player is scummy during early D1.
4. risk.nuke's pressure vote on VK, who had not yet said anything (null tell).
This is enough to make rastaban extremely suspicious of risk.nuke. To me it seems like scum trying really hard to paint someone up as scum.
In this post he says that he will try to push his scum reads, yet he switches his vote over to MrZentor without really pushing his case further (although I have to admit that it's quite hard when it sucks so hard that everyone disagrees with it). He says this:
"The reason I wanted to wait on on mr.Z untill tomorrow was because he stayed in, even after subbing out. now it isn't deffinate by any leas but it increases the likelyhood he got a blue or red role. I didn't mention this earlier because if he wasn't scum then it increased his chance of getting hit tonight. However I think his vote on marv after claiming both were probably town is pretty incriminating."
Some bullshit reasoning about MrZentor being red or blue and a voteswitch that doesn't make any difference to the lynch whatsoever, and this is enough for rastaban to stop pushing his best scum read. As slOosh later points out, there was also a whole 24 hour-period between MrZentor saying that they're both town and him changing his vote to marv. It's not really strange that he changed his mind during this period. It is also D1, which means that no reads are very certain (even likelier that MrZ changed his mind).
On June 24 2012 04:52 rastaban wrote:Show nested quote +On June 24 2012 04:40 slOosh wrote:Yea I really think rastaban has a higher chance of flipping mafia than MrZentor. On June 23 2012 03:08 rastaban wrote:
This game I am trying something different since I don't worry about having a gun, I am going to push my scum reads and try and save my town reads. If I get lynched for that, at least town gets a trail votes to follow that led up to it.
On June 23 2012 23:23 rastaban wrote:On June 23 2012 19:34 marvellosity wrote:
Fairly happy with risk's recent contribution.
Had a look through Zentor's filter. His vote on me was the first time he mentioned me at all (other than the general 'how intense' comment), and worse it was in response to Zephirdd's comment about scum bussing. 'One of them has to die' - why? no reasoning.
I first got my anti-town read on Zentor in Bang Bang when he mysteriously lumped Toad into his list of scumreads without having previously mentioned him, because other people had done so. So pretty satisfied with where my vote is right now. I disagree about risk, he defended himself but didn't actually contribute yet. However I doubt I am going to get enough people to vote for him today. The reason I wanted to wait on on mr.Z untill tomorrow was because he stayed in, even after subbing out. now it isn't deffinate by any leas but it increases the likelyhood he got a blue or red role. I didn't mention this earlier because if he wasn't scum then it increased his chance of getting hit tonight. However I think his vote on marv after claiming both were probably town is pretty incriminating. He isn't doing what he said he would do - hold him accountable. He pushes risk saying that he is scummy, yet waits for risk to defend himself. When he does, all he doesn't comment on whether the defense is valid or not, but dismisses the whole thing and says risk still hasn't contributed. How is that pushing scum reads? He clearly still has one, but isn't pushing it. He is merely going with the flow and sentiment of town. Compare his play here to his play in Bang Bang, in which he is confident in what he says and isn't afraid to put out his thoughts. In this game there is more fluff and more references to games that don't really prove anything. Moreso, suspicions of him have been ignored several times, which indicates resistance. Vote rastaban. Guess what there is more than 1 mafia in this game o.O surprising huh. I still want risk lynched, but do you really think 6 other people are going to do that in the next few hours? No, because everyone seemed to want to discuss me instead of my case. And this game if we don't get 7 votes on someone then it is a no lynch which is very bad for town. Also if I stay on risk it doesn't say anything about my alignment if I am the only one. I think Zentor is currently the second scummiet player after risk. As I mentioned earlier his voting for someone who he thought wasn't scum pushed me from being neutral on him to him being likely scum. I felt his play only fit a red or blue player, I don't think he is blue now so red is most likely. Also staying on risk is the safe move it means regardless of the lynch results I am not responsible For the outcome.
Two problems with this post:
1. Jumping onto the MrZentor wagon without providing any sound reasoning doesn't really say that much about your alignment either. rastaban didn't play a major part in the lynching of MrZentor. He could be a bandwagoning scum just as well as a bandwagoning townie.
2. This is scum thinking (the bolded part). He is trying not to look suspicious (keep in mind that he already knows that MrZentor will flip town). He is trying to appear pro-town by saying that he can be held accountable for lynching a townie. (He wasn't even responsible for the lynch anyway.)
Then we have rastaban's follow-up on risk.nuke's defense/analysis. I'll put it in a spoiler to reduce the size of my post. My comments are in bold (open the nested quotes).
+ Show Spoiler +On June 25 2012 07:39 rastaban wrote:Well it was ignored day 1, but perhaps with more information available to us now you will see that I was correct in my original annalysis. I will start with his post responding to my original post. Show nested quote +On June 23 2012 10:15 risk.nuke wrote:So my first thought is what two players are yelling the loudest at eachother. It's Vicera and Marv. So naturally my first assumption would be to remove both of those from my day 1 lynch pool. While Vicera doubtlessly seems like the towniest townie ever towned marv seems a bit scummy. Partly because how his inabillity to see how Vicera is town. Anyway lets go to Rastaban, I'm sort of writing this on the fly out of lazyness so I still haven't decided who I want dead the most yet. + Show Spoiler [Rastaban Says] +On June 23 2012 00:31 rastaban wrote:I would like to put forward a new actor into the spotlight who I feel doesn't want this movie finished. One risk.nuke! This fellow looks shady to me and he must have gotten Kirsten Stewart for his actor for the poor job he has done hiding his distain for our movie. Check it out: Show nested quote +On June 22 2012 07:28 risk.nuke wrote:
Well Zentor started out very strong but then his activity dropped which is all-in-all a scumtrait.
He spends half of his posts unnecessarily defending himself and the other half is useless 1-worders. I would very much like him to come here and explain himselves. Seeing how he can be one of the largest postcount in this game and have said so little of significance. This is his most rounded and contributing post... And it is a joke post. Next we get this gem: Show nested quote +On June 22 2012 07:52 risk.nuke wrote:
While I agree Zentor is a scourge to have on the gamefield I don't think we should kill him to be rid of him. That's not the way. As for now I want to hear from more players. Not much here, he defends Z but against an attack that was never going to happen anyway so a null read on this one Show nested quote +On June 22 2012 07:57 risk.nuke wrote:On June 22 2012 07:53 Snarfs wrote:
I have a great idea guys:
Let's lynch Probulous so that we immediately know which team is going to lose, then whoever is on that team can just forfeit and we all save a ton of time!
##Vote Probulous! what? What a quality contribution, but after wanting to hear more from players he certainly doesn't add anything himself or even push this thought further. The original post was a joke regarding probs penchant for losing lately but risk doesn't follow up to even find that out. Show nested quote +On June 22 2012 08:03 risk.nuke wrote:
I say we lynch zephirdd on account of not realising we're past fun-time. Wants to lynch zeph but like most bad actors he says the lines but doesn't have his actions (vote) match up to his words. He doesnt want to have the case lead back to him, and until more people have joined in he holds his vote. Perhaps you might think he is an actor who values life and is very conservative with his voting habits, but you will soon see that is not the case. Show nested quote +On June 22 2012 08:55 risk.nuke wrote:
lol, ok #1 scum response
##Vote: marvellosity Now he gets crazy like Charlie Sheen, he now throws his vote onto the marv train, but he doesn't add anything to the arguments, he doesn't even mention agreeing with others but instead he bases his vote off one post. What was this incriminating post? Well I thought it must have been the dodge marv made or perhaps his posts where he says he is confidant he doesn't get lynched, but no it is this one. Show nested quote +On June 22 2012 08:53 marvellosity wrote:On June 22 2012 08:41 Zephirdd wrote:
This is a semi-closed setup. If there are 13 players, it's possible that 12 are medics and 1 is a scum. Of course that's retarded as fuck, but nothing is concrete and we shouldn't think "but it's not common to 2 of X" exist ever. at all.
In fact, we can't even confirm the existence of a SK until after the night phase.
I'm not sure about Millers instaclaiming. While it clears path for cops(as it's pretty obvious that they will show red), it also reduces the number of possible blues, making it easier for scum. At least what I understood from the setup is that Millers can't be blues.
If anything, Millers should be breadcrumbing and claiming in case a cop calls them guilty. For all other purposes, they should be *Vanilla*(unclaimed, aka. possible blue) to make it harder for mafia to shoot into blues. Thanks, I will pass this on to my scumbuddies immediately. Marv is showing how absurd it is to have millers breadcrumb so they can be saved later, and this post is the one risk decides justifies throwing the weight of his vote behind? I think he thought the risk train was gaining momentum and wanted to get on board. Show nested quote +On June 22 2012 19:01 risk.nuke wrote:
##Unvote: marvellosity
##Vote: von Klaust II Here is his latest post, what!!!??? This is so out of the blue, he never says why he changes his mind, he doesn't even say why he votes for klaust though I am guessing inactivity. This is a huge throw away vote meaning nothing as he doesn't even ask for klaus to speak up. On top of that look at the time stamps, this occurs 10 hours after his Last post. So picture this, risk votes marv, 10 hours later he comes and votes klaust with no reasoning at all. Ahha, but what has changed? Well I and a few others have pushed for slowing down on tunneling marv, and he realizes that it might not happen. Prob mentions the lurkers need to get posting and names klaust as one of them, risk immediately votes for him. So he has 10 hours between his posts and apparently knows enough to change his mind on the marv lynch and that klaust hasn't posted yet and still we don't get even a single line of content from. This is a mafia mindset, all of hs targets are equally scummy since none of them are scum so he doesn't care about who gets lynched as long as it isn't them. Let's kick this sham of an actor off our set before he changes this movie from Signs into The Happening. ##Vote: risk.nuke There are alot of things I don't like in his so called analysis of me. Mainly because these posts were made right at the start of the game and were mostly just for getting up the activity and he complains how they are content-short. It should be obvious why it's impossible to make a case when you're the first player to talk. Oviously he doesn't approve of the case, and he says the posts were made right at the start of the game, so there was nothing to discuss. Only the first 2 posts fit this criteria and I pointed out they weren't applicable. What is else is that you will see nothing has changed since this point in his posting habitsAll these posts were made early D1, and you are still only bringing up null tells, so there really isn't more that he can say to defend himself. You're right in that he continues lurking quite hard, but both townies and scum can be lurky. Not picking up on posting might indicate that a player is mafia, but he might as well be a lazy townie. It's basically impossible to get an accurate read on them, which is why they're so dangerous to town.Second I think it favors town to lynch mafia rather then prioritizing people soley because they are unpleasant and that's what I said. How is it scummy? I didn't understand that inside joke that post seemed to be and I wanted Prob to come back and explain himself or post some more. Scum are sometimes a bit tense and scared to jump into the thread and zephirdd choose to jump in with some joke-post which I thought was suspicious. His entire, Oh the game has started "insert joke stuff here" felt in the spur of the moment like a condemnable lie. I voted marv because I though that was something a mafia would say when they thought the case against them was poor. Then lastly he's completely misinterpreting my voteswitch. This you probably don't know but I felt a bit annoyed because i realised that in my last games I've had an unstatisticly high ratio of misreads in the earlygame and I came to the conclusion that it's because I'm to lenient to lurkers. So I pressurevoted a guy who still hadn't joined us (but shortly after did~ heeyoo~) Anyway I didn't explain myself because I thought a pressurevote on a lurker was decent reasoning enough and it shouldn't had been so hard to figure out that was what I was doing without me spelling it out for you. Here he admits he is changing his play style and his reasoning is he is too lenient to lurkers, but he is lurking this whole game. I don't buy itThis is a slight scum tell. First one in your entire case against risk.nuke.+ Show Spoiler [Rastaban Says II] +On June 23 2012 03:08 rastaban wrote:
Wow, really surprised no one sees the vote switching without any reason at all not scummy. My case is misconstrued as "risk.nuke has not yet posted anything of value." That would be a case against
Also I never saw Sloosh's post as it took me far longer than 30 minutes to work up a case against risk. You know why ,because I don't throw accusations around wildly until I have convinced myself.
Last game as a doctor I had no gun and so I had to mafia reads and a town read but since it was my first game in a year and I was afraid that without a gun if I pushed too hard they would want me to shoot and out my role. Well no one seemed to care about my cases but me but in the end I was correct.
Day 1 of Bang Bang I posted this: "Meapak_Ziphh, your filter looked really bad last night tons of filler and no posts contributing to discussion, but you seem to be posting more like your normal self today. Mind explaining what was going on?" I actually had an entire case typed up like I just did for risk and yet I decided to go easy and let him slide, well guess what he was GF. If I had pushed for him like I thought I should have day 1 we might have outed GF immediately.
This game I am trying something different since I don't worry about having a gun, I am going to push my scum reads and try and save my town reads. If I get lynched for that, at least town gets a trail votes to follow that led up to it.
Sorry but this is so similar to bang bang's Gonzaw fiasco where everyone clamored about him being red while I thought the case against him was awful, he gets shot flips blue and since it was almost all townies pushing the lynch we started the next day clueless as to where to begin which is why I had to post the Cephiro case linked above to begin with. So yeah, I stand by thinking risk is our best candidate and want him lynched. I am putting forward someone who is actually scummy instead of the marv case where half of it is based on his reaction to a leading question. Not much here but I think it's safe to say it shouldn't take 30 minutes or more to analyse what very little I had written, come on, it's not many lines. Another key thing, he faults how long it took me but as you will soon see for thinking it only takes 30 min to argue a case he doesn't ever post one himself.Making this remark is certainly rude, and it could be interpreted as a slight scum tell, but it is mostly null. My last comments on this post by rastaban are at the bottom of the spoiler (after rastaban puts his vote on risk.nuke).In this post Rastaban makes sense. He supports the miller-must claim which is basic. Though I wouldn't award him town-points for agreeing. The second paragraph is more interesting to me. It shows that he knows how to be carefull with bandwagons. Which makes no sense at all that the next thing he does is he try to push me hard on exagerated and out-of-context reasoning. I think I'm done with rastaban but it's 3:15 now. Sorry T.B.C. tomorrow. He ends with T.B.C. tomorrow, but as you will see he never followed up with anything to help town from this point on. Let me lump he next few posts together. Show nested quote +On June 24 2012 01:49 risk.nuke wrote:
rastaban zephirdd and zentor, what are your thoughts on eachother? Show nested quote +On June 24 2012 01:53 risk.nuke wrote:
vonKlaust II what are your thoughts on the lynch? Instead of contributing any original thoughts at all to the conversation he sits around asking 1 line questions with no follow up. This is a perfect way for scum to hide as it doesn't require any original thoughts from them. Show nested quote +On June 24 2012 02:22 risk.nuke wrote:
There are a few hours left but it's starting to become time we worked up on a majority. I'm going to vote for Rastaban
##Unvote: von Klaust II
##Vote: Rastaban Again we have a vote, this time on me but what is missing? Any reasoning on why. His biggest reason is to start working on a majority, but at this point we already had or almost had one on Zentor, so why vote for me over zentor? I think he just wanted to spread out the mafia vote so they weren't all on one guy. Show nested quote +On June 24 2012 04:47 risk.nuke wrote:
Honestly I'm fine with both Zentor and Rastaban (Klaus aswell and maybe zephirdd), I'm feeling I prefer rastaban but I don't care enough to sway people one way or the other. Aslong as we have majority on one, This post is incredibly incriminating... he is fine with lynching 4 different people. He has yet to give a single reason on any of them but he finds all of them viable targets. To me this is the words of mafia and not a town player. Show nested quote +On June 24 2012 04:54 risk.nuke wrote:
Rastaban if you still think I'm scummy why haven't you bothered defending your case? Another post where he asks questions of other players and yet still adds 0 to the game himself. Show nested quote +On June 24 2012 04:58 risk.nuke wrote:
I agree completely prplhz those are thoughts I've felt about zephirdd aswell. Show nested quote +On June 24 2012 05:00 risk.nuke wrote:On June 24 2012 04:58 risk.nuke wrote:
I agree completely prplhz those are thoughts I've felt about zephirdd aswell. The Miller point and the VE+Marv=scum. Now he agrees with someone, and says he had been thinking the same thing. He uses past tense and yet why didn't he bring the accusation forward or say something but instead waited on others? He has already said it shouldn't have taken me 30 minutes to put a case together against him, and yet he is so busy he can't not only put a case together but not even add a single original thought this entire game. He hasn't added a single thing to this entire game, and his only time to post anything longer than a line or two was when he felt threatened. He promised to follow up but didn't, He was fine with lynching any of four people, never trying to narrow those results down to the right one because as scum he doesn't care who dies when they are townies.. ##Vote risk.nuke - Asking questions can be pro-town (when you do it VE-style), but I agree with you that it is a bit scummy to just ask questions while providing little content yourself.
- Him voting for you is a null tell. You make it appear scummy by assuming that he is mafia. He might as well just be a lazy townie.
- There is nothing wrong with being suspicious of four people, especially not during D1. It is a null tell.
After this he has one lenghty post (on Mattchew) along with some shorter posts. Nothing that really stuck out to me as either towny or scummy. He is uncertain about the marv/Mattchew lynch, but I can't really fault him for that. It was a difficult situation. I can't be arsed to examine it in detail at the moment, but I will take a more in-depth look at it tomorrow...
TL;DR: rastaban is scum.
##Vote rastaban
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Bah, it's really hard to believe that mafia held their roleblock in a situation where an SK is most likely shooting at them and when they might suspect that there's a cop alive. I think that we have to believe risk.nuke's claim which means that the remaining 4 are anti-town. With this in mind, I'm fairly certain that Shraft is the SK:
Why I don't think he's mafia (and what gave me a townie vibe on him):
- He has contributed to scum hunting and has not been afraid to push his reads (see his pushes against marvellosity, zephirdd, risk.nuke, and most recently, rastaban)
- His thought processes have been clear and easy to follow and he consistently responded well to people's cases against him
- He genuinely appears interested in lynching scum over townies.
Why I think he's SK:
- The biggest tell for me is that he got overly emotional in his case against risk.nuke after the flip when it was revealed that there was no deaths:
Compare his attack against risk.nuke:
On June 25 2012 10:30 Shraft wrote:risk.nuke you need to step up your game. Wanting to lynch lurers and then lurking hard yourself makes you look bad. On top of that your only substantial post is the one where you defend yourself (you never followed up on that post either, despite saying that you would). Why would you even bother defending that hard when nobody agreed with his case anyway? You ask for the other lurkers to share their reads and to contribute, but you do nothing of the kind yourself. Aside from lurkers, you're only suspicious of rastaban (but you haven't really shared much thought on him either, it looks more like OMGUS to me). And what the fuck is this? Show nested quote +On June 25 2012 07:51 risk.nuke wrote:
Rastaban if you really are townie (which I don't think you are) you dodged a lynch last night and seeing how we mislynched a townie that makes the situation even worse for you. My point is if you don't want to die soon you should do something more usefull then dumb shit tunneling. He would've tried to dodge the lynch regardless of his alignment, why do you act as if it is a scum tell?
With his one against zephirdd just a day before:
On June 24 2012 09:01 Shraft wrote:Show nested quote +On June 24 2012 05:48 Zephirdd wrote:On June 24 2012 03:29 Shraft wrote:On June 24 2012 03:17 Zephirdd wrote:On June 23 2012 18:08 marvellosity wrote:
I'm not sure how you can play mafia Zeph if it feels fabricated to you. It means you have no pulse at all on the psychology and emotion in a game, and therefore I really don't know how you can even try to play successfully :/ AtE much? On June 24 2012 01:49 risk.nuke wrote:
rastaban zephirdd and zentor, what are your thoughts on eachother? rastaban sounds like town with bad cases. Zentor sounds trollish and uninterested, usually a signal of a VT(because VT is indeed an uninteresting role) or a scum(with the intention of creating confusion in the thread and wasting discussion). IMO, Zentor sounds like a good day 1 lynch atm. ##Vote MrZentor Can you explain why rastaban sounds like town? Because when I looked at Bang Bang I didn't really see any similarities with his play in this game. At least no similarities that you wouldn't expect from the same player regardless of alignment, anyway. How did you go from thinking that rastaban was your best scum read to thinking that he is town? All you said was this: On June 23 2012 04:47 Zephirdd wrote:On June 23 2012 04:25 slOosh wrote:
Rastaban looks townish to me; the main case against him right now looks like "he is playing bad", rather than "he is playing like scum".
Something in the back of my mind is still clicking everytime I read Snarfs. Can you cool cats reread his last post and tell me your thoughts? It would be great to get some discussion particularly from marv, prplhz and risk.nuke.
And as for now here will be my preliminary vote to hold me accountable.
##Vote: Snarfs All I read from his last post is "there is no difference between Zentor and risk.nuke". The only way this would be a scum tell if risk was scum. idk, snarfs looks null to me. Well, the most glaring scum tell so far(for me) is rastaban, but if you think about it he's just playing as his town meta(based on bang bang) and all he's done is a bad case, not a scummy case. Since he is "the most glaring scum tell so far" for you, you must've surely seen some clear signs pointing toward him being town when you read Bang Bang Mafia for you to believe that he is town. Maybe I should have explained it better. I said it was "the most glaring scum tell" because there wasn't anything else at the time. In the same post, I say that it's probably just a bad case. From what I've read, he is looking similar to his BangBang2 meta. similar. This much I already get. What I am interested in is what made you jump from glaring scum tell to town. If it's a meta argument it must be something very indicative so that you can be sure of his alignment, right? I mean, how can you be so sure of him being town just because of some similarities? I believe that every player acts in a (somewhat) similar way in every game, regardless of alignment. I'd like you to elaborate more on what made you think rastaban is town, if you please. Something more specific than just the general "there are some similarities".
It just seems so much angrier against risk.nuke. We would expect him to be angry because he's probably thinking at this time that mafia KP was blocked and his KP didn't go through because he made a stupid mistake of emailing the wrong mod. Mafia in that situation though, would probably just assume that their KP had been jailed.
Also, looking at the night 1 kill:
Night 1: slOosh + zephirdd. zephirdd was looking scummy and Shraft was expressing his suspicions of zephirdd:
On June 24 2012 05:10 Shraft wrote:@prplhzGood post. I am growing suspicious of [zephirdd] as well. That's why I questioned him here. I don't know if we have enough time or enough people to lynch him, but I think I'd rather have him lynched than rastaban or Zentor.
Conclusion: Shraft SK
Which leaves us with:
rastaban, Mattchew, and prplhz
I have to agree with Shraft in that rastaban has looked the scummiest of them all and I'm pissed off at myself for not pushing that read harder earlier in the game. Also one more thing to notice in his giant fluffy post at the beginning of the game is the comparison to Bang Bang mafia.
Notice in Bang Bang how short and to the point it is:
On June 11 2012 22:33 rastaban wrote:
While I agree that Toad's plan was inherently flawed, I think there were some good points..
Millers should claim, and we should force them to shoot. Later we can sort out any false claims etc... but it gets us started in the right direction. I agree there could be more than 1 miller so the self shooting is a bad thing and will have us ending up with 2 wasted lynches.
I am worried that our day 1 shot is going to happen within 5 minutes of daytime as people try to make a point to get themselves remembered for shooting X as soon as the game started for teh LOLz. Lets step away from this, while anyone can kill I think we need to at least start off with in-thread voting before the shot is fired, and if we can have the millers doing it until they have all shot so much the better.
If we can get the miller claims into the open (assuming there are some) and then have them do our designated shooting for us for the first cycle or two we not only gain some information on them, but also on the discussion about who they should be shooting.
Now compare that with his opening this game:
On June 22 2012 16:46 rastaban wrote:
Just caught up on what is the "haps", here are my thoughts.
First, I agree with the Millers claim day one, and policy lynching all Millers after today. In a game where they are self aware it is a huge boon for town. The benefits far out way the negative of less people with possible blue roles. First and most importantly it guarantees our checks. Detectives know any red checks from non-mafia get lynched, since sanity isn't an issue in this game. Any Mafia will always claim miller if checked and we don't force a day 1 reveal. It will cause a lot of confusion, it is best to eliminate this by forcing day one claims. It also forces Mafia's hand, if they want to claim they have to do it now before they are in too much water. This is hard for mafia to do, they don't want to be scrutinized and that is why they claim miller as a last resort. While it is argued that Millers make it easier to snipe blues it also makes our blues more effective. Look at Bang Bang where I, as a doctor, pushed strongly for a miller claim night one.
Second, the focus of Marv makes me think of karma after seeing him do it to Gonzaw in our last game together. We need to be careful with tunneling though, when you push someone so hard day1, they will often come across as scum no matter what since the only content you have is them trying to defend themselves against accusations. He could be scum but I just want to say that we need to be cautious, as I feel the case against him is a bit biased. Now his day 1 "meta" is to spam 1 liners so I personally wouldn't mind him getting lynched if there isn't a better candidate but I feel like there is too much discussion on him this early in our day. Remember we have 48 hours, half that time hasn't even passed yet so I don't like the band wagoning on Marv so quickly.
That said I have a hard time getting anything from his filter right now. Some people analyze best when their quarry is under pressure but for me that introduces too many variables so I like to read posts where they aren't defending themselves. So marv would you mind answering the original question ( as leading as it may be) about what you feel are your tells, and second who do you feel is most likely scum?
The first paragraph in either says exactly the same thing and look how much he's fluffed it up. It's such an obvious difference.
marv, what do you think of my assessment of Shraft's play? And what about risk.nuke vs rastaban? I think this makes more sense than from a risk.nuke is scum fake-claiming RB standpoint.
##Vote rastaban
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United Kingdom36156 Posts
Snarfs, you have to vote with me and right now I'm not voting for rastaban.
Simples.
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I will address the rest of your posts when I'm not lying down vaguely watching gsl
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ugh, I had a scumread on rastaban earlier in the game but somehow it dissipated. I'll have to relook.
Still voting Mattchew today though.
It's one of the rare instances when mine/VE's view actually ended up coinciding, which is pretty important.
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It's a weird feeling knowing there's just 1 townie besides me and marv and the rest are evil.
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Marv I am driving to school... I have some logic to throw at you but I need you to answer this... Who are your 3 townies and what is your opinion on risk
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2 other townies then yourself I guess I should say *
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yeah I don't know right now. I was too hasty yesterday with my answers.
I have to put in a monumental amount of effort to try to refocus my reads and with town's negligible chance of winning I'm struggling to find the motivation.
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What I don't like about risk is that earlier he called VE 'the towniest town that ever towned' and that turned into 'scumbag shit'
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There's so much fucking information to be had between the me/VE/other people interactions but I feel incapable of reading it correctly 
I feel like I was manipulated into definitely shooting VE last night.
It actually wasn't set in stone, and I didn't do so night 1 because so many people were against it, but night 2 much of the resistance against it washed away which made me more comfortable on it.
I want to know who is responsible.
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On June 28 2012 21:18 marvellosity wrote:
yeah I don't know right now. I was too hasty yesterday with my answers.
I have to put in a monumental amount of effort to try to refocus my reads and with town's negligible chance of winning I'm struggling to find the motivation.
Again I'm spamming like a baws, but obviously I will find the effort at some stage.
Everyone seriously needs to help me with my questions and analysis, especially if it involves me.
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Marv once I'm out of traffic at a comp I'll simplify this for you
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@Snarfs
I'm not the SK. I tried to provoke risk.nuke into posting more by being aggressive, and that's why the post seems out of character. You're reading too much into it.
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On June 28 2012 21:40 marvellosity wrote:Show nested quote +On June 28 2012 21:18 marvellosity wrote:
yeah I don't know right now. I was too hasty yesterday with my answers.
I have to put in a monumental amount of effort to try to refocus my reads and with town's negligible chance of winning I'm struggling to find the motivation. Again I'm spamming like a baws, but obviously I will find the effort at some stage. Everyone seriously needs to help me with my questions and analysis, especially if it involves me.
Just kill rastaban. Refocus your reads tomorrow.
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So yesterdays lynch bothers me for quite a few reasons. Now I know mafia may not play optimally so this isn't an air tight thing but it does tie into a couple of other things that I think can help us figure this out.
Lets go through the lynch. It ended with this being the final vote count:
risk.nuke (0): Rastaban
Zephirdd (RIP) (0): Snarfs
rastaban (1): xsksc
VisceraEyes (0): marvellosity
marvellosity (3): VisceraEyes, Probulous, Shraft, Mattchew, Snarfs, Rastaban, prplhz, marvellosity VisceraEyes
xsksc (1): risk.nuke
Shraft (0): prplhz
Mattchew (5): Rastaban, Snarfs, Probulous, VisceraEyes, Shraft, marvellosity
Now remember mafia knows marv isn't lying and they believe he can shoot. Now the real question here is what alignment is Mattchew? Lets discuss him being scum vs town
If he is mafia why would scum switch to him? They can lynch marv and we would be in the spot we are right now. just switch marv and VE. Remember scum didn't know that VE would switch off so they play knowing that matt gets lynched. We know probulous and marv are both town that leaves me snarfs and shraft. If mattchew is mafia then the mafia team would seem to be prplhz,risk.nuke,Mattchew. Because if any mafia voted for him it would have been an awful play they lose their first member and we go into town today with 3-1-2 and a way to track things back to them. The real problem is their is no need to do it, Any of them can feign not being on line and just let marv be lynched we could only switch because we had the exact amount, 6 players, online. what are our chances that all town voted for matt, I think it is unlikely
How about if Mattchew is town, well then things start to make a lot more sense from an optimal play stance. Mafia knows that either lynch is good for them, but they have good reason to believe they can control marv with either a block or letting him kill VE. This means that both lynches are good for them but killing matt is slightly better (2-1-3 instead of 3-1-3)
I think they thought the lynch of mattchew would end the game for them with a 2-1-3 day today so they got a bit bold I would like to point out something else, including today every lynch has had Snarfs and Shraft voting in sync for the same person.
Also check out this:
On June 27 2012 03:42 Shraft wrote:Snarfs metaHere's a short list that describes Snarfs' posting in EMM (where he was mafia) quite accurately: - Comments on everything, but he has few (if any) scum reads of his own.
- Has a few lenghty posts, but none of them contain much own thoughts, it's mostly just short stuff about everything going on.
- Always has an opinion that corresponds well with what others have already said.
- Applies light pressure often, but rarely follows through. Doesn't push his reads hard.
- Tends to ask other people for their opinion rather than voicing his own thoughts.
- As the number of players dwindles, he starts providing more content and more own thought. Probably because it's harder to just blend in.
Here are Snarfs' post game thoughts: Show nested quote +On June 20 2012 07:14 Snarfs wrote:+ Show Spoiler [Rest of his post] +GG guys. Thanks to the hosts  . First scum game and I was not kidding when I said it was way more stressful for me than town T_T. I kept looking back at things I was saying and kicking myself for saying them. Wish I could have done better, but I already feel like this experience will help my future scum play... that's kinda why I just wanted the game to end, time to move on and do better in the next one! Artanis, you were way too damn towny. Stop that! But I don't know why you guys convinced yourselves I wasn't scum based on my meta. I'd never played scum before... there was no meta to compare  . Ghost properly calling out the fact that I'd asked people for previous games but never referenced them was one of those "Oh fuck" moments for me. Fortunately, noone else brought that up again... Hyaach, sorry for pushing your lynch when you'd done nothing scummy. I actually felt really bad T_T. I'm not cut out for scum life haha. Anyways, fun game nonetheless. Thanks again wbg, HiroPro and ET. I compared Snarfs' play in EMM (where he was scum) to his play in WoF MM (where he was a vigilante), and I found some differences: - He seems to be willing to post more as town. He had a 2,5 page filter in EMM (excluding post game stuff) despite surviving until N5. In WoF he had a 4 page filter even though he got killed during N3.
- His posting seems more condensed as mafia. He posts about a couple of subjects at once and only makes short remarks, whereas as town, he seems to be more focused in his posting.
- Less interrogative questions as town than as mafia. (Although he still poses a fair amount of questions.)
- Way stronger scum reads as town. Look at this post that he submitted before getting shot to death. He didn't post anything that even remotely resembles this post during EMM.
I think that it's too early to guess his alignment based on meta in this game, but his play looks more like his town meta to me. The way he presents his case on Zephirdd doesn't seem like his conservative scum play in EMM. However, it could just be him adapting his scum play according to his post game thoughts in EMM, which makes me quite uncertain. Conclusion: Snarfs is still a null tell to me. I spent one hour researching his meta, but it didn't make me any more certain on his alignment. ._.
He spends an hour researching his "meta" and comes back with a null tell. he never follows up on this, and why didn't he judge him based on his own merits?
Shraft doesn't fare any better under scrutiny, Remember that long post on Zeph before we found out he died. As was pointed out he was too scummy to have been a scum target and they probably shot our jailer. My previous game I was working on a large case do you know when I posted it, minutes before day because I knew I might get shot and have all that effort wasted. Look however at his timing shortly after day post. and until a moment ago where he accuses me it was his only case this whole game. A whole game with 1 case that gets posted 15 min. before that person is revealed dead and flips town.
My conclusion is that Mattchew is not scum so he must be SK
I am going out on a limb here and I hate to admit I am wrong but with things the way they are it makes sense to me that risk.nuke is probably really town with that roleblock. The whole block the SK thing makes sense and so i will give him townie award #2
And of course marv is our last townie.
Now thew question is which of these scum do we lynch first?
##Unvote
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SO Prplhz, Snarfs, Shraft are any of you willing to vote for any of the others in that list? if so who?
To steal Marv's idea bonus townie points for quick answers
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OOooh Snarfs you listed prplhz as your last scum read, would you be up for teaming up and lynching him today?
Please...
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Marv
To simplify your process I will give you a step by step of how you should approach everything.
We are in Lynch Scum or Lose. Mis-lynching town or the SK will result in a scum victory
The first and MOST IMPORTANT thing you need to do is come up with a final read on Risk.
The reason for this, is that he is pretty much the only player 100% guaranteed not to be the SK.
Personally I believe him to be town. I don't think there is any logical reason for scum to hold their RB when I believe the SK has been hunting them all game (Zeph then Xsksc were scummy targets that I doubt scum would shoot at and I believe SK shot at them to kill mafia). It would be extremely bold of them to hold their RB and increase the chances of one of them being hit by SK.
If you disagree, I feel that you must vote and lynch Risk because if you are correct, he will flip scum 100%. There is no one else you can say this for.
If you agree with my assessment that Risk is town, then you have 5 players left, 4 of which are not town. I think the first step you must take is trying to remove the remaining townie from the pool of 5. This way (and this is so weird to actually say out loud) you can start to play connect-the-scum, something that normally can demolish town. However in this scenario, it is actually the best way to try and lynch a scum team member over the SK or townie.
Any route you choose I will support, other than voting me for lynch. I also will help you think out your reads if you would like my opinions. Basically Marv, the game comes down to your reads, no one else's, if you read the situation as Risk being town then his reads also matter, but until that point, the game is on your shoulders.
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EPT
