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On April 20 2012 02:30 funcmode wrote:Show nested quote +On April 19 2012 19:38 Xatalos wrote:
Lynching Dittert is the safest bet right now, and Willz is certainly Mafia as I reasoned earlier, but I'd like to add why Funcmode is very likely Mafia as well (sorry about the look of this post; I can't make it look as shiny as my Willz case while on my phone and in a hurry).
So far Funcmode has made exactly 3 posts with any kind of content. In the first he made a small list of his town/Mafia reads (without much reasoning, if any) and each of those "unique" reads pretty much parroted the general consensus at the time. It was the minimum amount of contribution he could make to continue flying under the radar, while not actually saying anything new. His second post actually had some of his own thoughts in it, but it was such a huge and pointless block of text that mostly everyone seemed to ignore/forget it right away. His third post was similar to his first: not saying anything new, just repeating what had already been said by others. The theme of his posts seems to be "forgettable, rephrased, pointless".
The ONLY unique/new thing he has said all game (!!!) is that he thought the "most scummy post" by Willz was actually a "very pro-town post". Granted, it's not yet proven 100% that Willz is Mafia, but I can't really explain Willz's actions as town actions anymore, so this out-of-place defense for Willz is pretty suspicious in my eyes. He also had some other vague opinions in that huge wall of text (second relevant post), such as me and Acrofales maybe being a Mafia team, which is clearly now proved false.
About every other player I can say they have at least contributed SOMETHING, however minimal. But Funcmode has been just hiding behind the general consensus and not making non-vague accusations, pressure, or pretty much anything at all. He strikes me as a player only interested in hiding and blending in, not at all interested in finding Mafia or bringing anything new to the table. Such apathy and hesitation about the most important goal for townies can only be explained by one thing: being Mafia. I don't want to spend any significant amount of time arguing my defense today, as we have far more pressing issues. Given than I'm not exactly at the centre of attention, it would be a waste of time and resources given how important today is. I'll simply reiterate my previous post regarding my defense of Willz; Show nested quote +On April 19 2012 06:49 funcmode wrote:First I'll address my defense of Willz's post, which I stated sounded very pro-town based on the fact that it agreed strongly with my own reads at the time (specifically Acro and Xatalos being a scummy tagteam - based largely on HiroPro's last statement and the seemingly great lengths both were willing to go to defend each other). You (Xatalos) state that I was the only person to defend his post which "everyone called as "weird", "suspicious" or even "the most scummy post in the game."" The reality is, only you and Acro originally called out the post as suspicious, which is obviously to be expected as it focused on both of you specifically. Only later did KB come out and say it sounded a bit suspect. Everyone else (Yomi, imallinson, Dittert and vonK) let it mostly slip under the radar. So I don't think it's fair to call me out on defending this post in the manner you did, especially since the underlying theory behind why I agreed with it and cited the post as "pro-town" ended up being completely false anyway. (Pay attention to the bold bit) I'm still trying to determine what I really think about this DT claim, it's certainly very suspect and one could argue shouldn't be trusted simply because of the current state of the game. The lack of activity from vonK and Yomi is also especially troubling. I'm going to ponder further and go back through some filters to try and come up with any kind of real conclusion. (And Xatalos, before you beat me to it, I know this will probably register with you as another "nothing" post in an attempt to remain under the radar - rather I'd prefer to not jump in and make any hasty conclusions, this has only proven to be a bad idea. As a townie, the more you throw me into your case makes it harder for me to believe in it).
I agree that you shouldn't be lynched today, since Willz and Dittert are far more likely Mafia. I just posted my case now to get people thinking about it already (in case there is an endgame scenario of for example you, yomi and imallinson left alive). In that situation, I'd want them to look back at my filter and notice this post. Of course a lot can happen between now and then: you might even start to look better compared to yomi for example... But if I could shoot 3 people right now, it would be Willz, Dittert and you.
I can't decide yet what to think about your defense for your Willz connection. Either you were extremely naive (believing in Willz just because he believed I was Mafia) or malicious (defending Willz because he was your Mafia teammate). And you are right: that post you just posted reeks of vagueness and indecisiveness. You better post your opinion before the vote is already settled or your Mafia likelihood increases from very likely to almost certain in my eyes.
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Well, this is amusing. It's probably too late for town now, but here are my thoughts on these latest antics.
The Mafia team is probably Dittert, Xatalos, imallinson They know this mis-lynch is the last one they need to perform, so they are going all out to cause confusion, notice how 4 people (Yomi, KharadBanar, vonKlaust, funcmode) haven't yet voted and we have 6 hours till deadline. Then all this confusion conveniently before the last major vote by town? Yeah I'm not buying it and neither should you.
Dittert claiming DT, now of all moments when the vote should have been between Xatalos or myself? Causing confusion, now he's creating a new lynch candidate with his trumped up case against KharadBanar. His DT checks also make no sense combined with his tunneling of me, why not check me D1 and then make your case against me D2 to get rid of me if you find me suspicious and you're the DT? Why check Arctic of all people (and breadcrumb) and then KharadBanar, this logic makes no sense. The explanation in my mind is that Dittert is Mafia and knows they were going to kill Arctic all along N1, and breadcrumbed that to throw everyone off and give weight to this later DT claim. Also notice this post by him: On April 19 2012 14:15 Dittert wrote:
4 votes will lynch somebody, and they have 3 votes. All they need is for one townie to be up for debate and they can gang up for the win. Since we already have Willz and Xat going at each other, it seems likely that at least one of them is town. Assuming both of them have at least one townie vote near the deadline tomorrow, we lose. The mafia will switch to the town member and they will win.
The only way this play makes even a little sense as mafia is if Willz and Xat are both scum as well and I'm trying to get them both off the chopping block. That doesn't make sense either, given the fact that:
1) I have been going after Willz aggressively the entire game. That's a pretty long con - all to set up this highly unlikely endgame scenario...?
2) Willz and Xat are going back and forth now, which would mean they're double bussing.
3) I was the first to vote for Xat on D3, meaning I'm bussing a teammate yet again.
4) If you don't believe me, isn't the person you're most likely to lynch me? In that case, we would still lose a mafia member. If you don't believe me and you don't lynch me, you're just not thinking clearly. I'm either right or mafia.
[red]There is no guarantee that Mafia won't change votes at the last minute if 1 town falls for it and votes for KharadBanar, just like what Dittert is saying, to force the mis-lynch and win the game. Also tunneling me this long is good to look "newbie" and also create a link between myself and Dittert in everyone's mind, distracting people from looking at other possible scum (I've helped this a lot with my assertion that Dittert has been newb town all along, well either he's the most amazing newbie ever with the worst DT logic that knows how to breadcrumb, or the reality that I now see, he really is Mafia)
Xatalos is scum because he has gone out of his way to vote me D3 (as he should, since we're the two likely candidates) but happens to conveniently switch to Dittert because imallinson convinced him to even though he made this post just before?
However, I'd rather lynch Willz before Dittert. Dittert's last post is pretty much him claiming Mafia, but Willz is hugely more nefarious and might even convince town to lynch someone else in the endgame situation. Dittert, on the other hand, just keeps digging his own grave by fake claiming to protect Willz.
Well we probably need to come to a consensus on who to lynch and the terrible DT claim makes me more sure Dittert is scum than Willz. I'd say Dittert is 95% scum Willz 90%. So in my eyes we should go for Dittert. Also if we are sure Willz is scum it's easy enough to ignore his posts.
Alright, I can see your point. In order to win this game, we need to lynch one Mafia right now, and indeed Dittert is even slightly more suspicious than Willz at the moment. And Dittert flipping Mafia will make Willz 99% Mafia as well, so no need to worry about Willz talking his way out of this again.
##Unvote
##Vote: Dittert
Note the second post, even if the vote goes through on Dittert and he flips red, Xatalos conveniently leaves this post to further incriminate me so that I will be lynched even if this plan doesn't work, really good thinking by a Mafia to do. Why would town set someone else up to be the next lynch just based on connection play? I believe this is a bus attempt by Xatalos and imallinson to both gain credit from Dittert's flip as well as to further set up my mis-lynch the following day. I do not believe these votes on Dittert will stick if they get lucky and one town votes for another town inadvertently.
imallinson I'm not as confident as I am in this read because it's mostly based on connection play between him and Xatalos and his interactions with Dittert. I remember him subtly trying to support Xatalos early on against Arctic and then sheeped both the vote on Dittert, the vote on Xatalos, and the vote on Hiro D3 without any substantiation. His latest antics here make no sense from a town POV. Town doesn't know exactly who's Mafia or who's town, they can only use connection play after someone has already flipped to justify their case, going 1 by one. However imallinson posts this:
On April 19 2012 17:23 imallinson wrote:
#3: "THE MAFIA DON'T NEED TO FAKE DT CLAIM TO WIN." This is just wrong. If it looked like one scum member was going to get lynched then fake claiming DT is an excellent move. If we have no DT then it's an easy way to lynch one of the best town players. If we do then you have a decent chance to convince the town to lynch their own DT. Seeing as Xatalos was suspicious of your claim right away I don't think he is your scum buddy. It fits nicely if Willz is however.
#4: This is what I think is the most damning evidence against your claim. Why if you knew Kharad was scum would you vote for Xatalos? This makes me think you decided to fake claim after you saw Willz in trouble. There isn't any other explanation for this.
I think this makes you look insanely scummy and it makes Willz look like your scum buddy. However you are the more obvious lynch at the moment.
##Unvote
##Vote: Dittert
So because Xatalos is around and active, and posts faster than I am that he's suspicious of Dittert's DT claim, imallinson dismisses the possibility that Dittert and Xatalos are connected? How does that work when you were talking during the night and post this:
On April 18 2012 07:45 imallinson wrote:@vonKlaust Show nested quote +Imallinson:
I'm fine with him being suspicious about Xatalos, but his case against Acro and later me doesn't make much sense to me. This is not a list of Imallinsons top scum reads. This is a list of Imallinsons top scum reads IF Xatalos flips red. It would be nice if he could also provide us with a list of his top scum reads as the game looks at the moment.
(I know he presented alternative percentages on me and Acro if Xatalos would flip green, but he also said that 33% is a null read and he put Acro on 33% and me on 40%, we would still be unlikely to be his mafia reads if Xatalos would flip green) Acrofales already asked me to provide my top 3 minus the connection to Xatalos. It was #1: Xatalos #2: Dittert #3: Willz Although at this point I'd probably swap Dittert and Willz.
imallinson says Xatalos, Dittert, and myself are his top scum reads. However he decides to vote me instead of Xatalos D3 with no weight to his opinion, but when Dittert makes his fake DT case, he assumes it's to only save his teammate Willz, and ignores Xatalos completely? Why would you as town ignore any possibility? Here is my point: imallinson was suspicious of Xatalos, but because Xatalos didn't believe in Dittert's fakeclaim, he finds that not suspicious and thinks I'm more likely to be Mafia in association No town should be convinced that easily, if a town's had consistent suspicions of someone, he is not likely to have them go away so suddenly, this is why I believed Dittert to be town, because he was at least consistent in tunneling me, contrast that with Xatalos' behavior, he has called out numerous people and is all over the place with his suspicions until finally he settles on me, but now this latest move by Dittert convinces both Xatalos and imallinson to switch off their initial vote candidate willz22912 to kill Dittert instead? Why aren't they just ignoring the fake DT claim because they don't believe it and continuing to vote me? Didn't Xatalos say I was the most dangerous Mafia here:
On April 18 2012 15:39 Xatalos wrote:
This is the deciding moment: if Willz is lynched, Mafia loses one member and the rest of Mafia are much easier to trace (Funcmode&Dittert?). If I'm lynched, town loses instantly. Read the filters of Willz and Acrofales, and choose town victory by voting for Willz.
And here:
Willz's defense is good, but if he's the Mafia leader, it would make sense. Everyone also keeps saying the Mafia team is good, which means they have superior argumentation skills (the average Mafia is more skilled than the average town in this game). I don't think I can beat Willz straight-on with logic and argumentation, but I'll try breaking his defense later when I have more time. Although I have more confidence in you than myself making him slip his defense right now... For now, I ask everyone to think about this: Willz is clearly one of the most skilled players in this game, yet his almost only pro-town contribution so far is his weak and forced case against BroodKingEXE. Does that make any sense for a town player?
And here: You bring up a lot of good points, imallinson. I don't really think you're Mafia anymore... Why would you bus both of your teammates this hard in that case?
Right now my conclusion is this:
A) Willz is certainly Mafia
B) Dittert is certainly Mafia
C) Funcmode is probably Mafia
However, I'd rather lynch Willz before Dittert. Dittert's last post is pretty much him claiming Mafia, but Willz is hugely more nefarious and might even convince town to lynch someone else in the endgame situation. Dittert, on the other hand, just keeps digging his own grave by fake claiming to protect Willz.
Also note the highlighted part in red for this quote, considering I believe the Mafia team to be imallinson, Xatalos, Dittert This is exactly what they are doing, bussing Dittert in order to look Xatalos and imallinson look better.
Also notice the three times Xatalos has believed me to be more of a danger than anyone else, and should be lynched first, but now he's willing to lynch Dittert because he fake-claimed DT? Why shouldn't I still be the lynch target? If I flip red like imallinson and Xatalos thinks, that gives more weight to Dittert being Mafia as well, not the other way around, especially since I'm the more dangerous Mafia no? All this is doing is discrediting me further, but not actually lynching me, this makes no sense from a town perspective. If you think a player is Mafia, you try and lynch them, not save them for later.
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United Kingdom3482 Posts
On April 20 2012 02:17 Dittert wrote:
All right mafia team (I'm talking to you, KB, Xat and imallinson). Answer me this:
If I'm mafia and trying to save Willz, why wouldn't I just step up and post a better case against Xatalos? Like I said before, with 2 choices on the block, the only reason for me to make this claim is if Willz and Xat are both mafia. Given Xat's reaction to my claim, I think that's highly unlikely.
Also, that makes 3 votes on me now. Everyone else realize that if you vote for me before we have 4 votes on KB, we lose, as I'll be the first one to reach 4 in the event of a 4-4 tie.
Because if you can convince us to lynch Kharad instead of Willz, then you are 4-3 going into the night. You have basically won at that point. It doesn't matter if everyone knows you fake claimed at that point because the game would already be done. Fake claiming gives you the most solid case you could possibly have.
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On April 20 2012 02:03 Xatalos wrote:
Come on: yomi, vonKlaust, KharadBanar. Now is the time to express your opinions (me vs Willz, Dittert's DT claim). There's only 6(?) hours left and half of the players have been just lurking all this time. I put it as a bonus credibility for imallinson to be as active and direct as he has been for today. On the other hand, my town reads are starting to drop a bit for those who have been just lurking and avoiding expressing their opinions. KharadBanar, you said you wanted to observe before explaining your opinions, but there isn't much time left anymore - you should tell what you think, especially about the apparent red check against you.
Oh look, further separation between Xatalos and imallinson. First imallinson thinks Xatalos is not the Mafia teammate of Dittert because Xatalos was able to call out how bad Dittert's fakeclaim was, and that clearly removes all suspicion.
Next we have Xatalos saying imallinson gets bonus points for being active today? So it's okay to not contribute as much every other day, but for today only, it's super special Xatalos +towncred to be active? What is this nonsense, really.
I am not changing my vote to Dittert and jumping on this bandwagon. I think Xatalos is the correct choice (and should have been for every other town), town needs to lynch 1 Mafia guaranteed today, and I still think Xatalos is the best choice for a lynch today to do that.
I am town, we lynch Mafia 1 by 1, we don't come up with crazy connection plays and then try and not lynch the most obvious Mafia target, that makes no sense. We lynch a Mafia, and then look at his filter for connections AFTER we know for sure his alignment. All this connection play before confirming alignment is not town play because town doesn't know for sure 100% what everyone elses alignment is, and connection play is only good for Mafia to use by mis-lynching through guilt by association.
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On April 20 2012 02:48 willz22912 wrote:Well, this is amusing. It's probably too late for town now, but here are my thoughts on these latest antics. The Mafia team is probably Dittert, Xatalos, imallinson They know this mis-lynch is the last one they need to perform, so they are going all out to cause confusion, notice how 4 people (Yomi, KharadBanar, vonKlaust, funcmode) haven't yet voted and we have 6 hours till deadline. Then all this confusion conveniently before the last major vote by town? Yeah I'm not buying it and neither should you. Dittert claiming DT, now of all moments when the vote should have been between Xatalos or myself? Causing confusion, now he's creating a new lynch candidate with his trumped up case against KharadBanar. His DT checks also make no sense combined with his tunneling of me, why not check me D1 and then make your case against me D2 to get rid of me if you find me suspicious and you're the DT? Why check Arctic of all people (and breadcrumb) and then KharadBanar, this logic makes no sense. The explanation in my mind is that Dittert is Mafia and knows they were going to kill Arctic all along N1, and breadcrumbed that to throw everyone off and give weight to this later DT claim. Also notice this post by him: Show nested quote +On April 19 2012 14:15 Dittert wrote:
4 votes will lynch somebody, and they have 3 votes. All they need is for one townie to be up for debate and they can gang up for the win. Since we already have Willz and Xat going at each other, it seems likely that at least one of them is town. Assuming both of them have at least one townie vote near the deadline tomorrow, we lose. The mafia will switch to the town member and they will win.
The only way this play makes even a little sense as mafia is if Willz and Xat are both scum as well and I'm trying to get them both off the chopping block. That doesn't make sense either, given the fact that:
1) I have been going after Willz aggressively the entire game. That's a pretty long con - all to set up this highly unlikely endgame scenario...?
2) Willz and Xat are going back and forth now, which would mean they're double bussing.
3) I was the first to vote for Xat on D3, meaning I'm bussing a teammate yet again.
4) If you don't believe me, isn't the person you're most likely to lynch me? In that case, we would still lose a mafia member. If you don't believe me and you don't lynch me, you're just not thinking clearly. I'm either right or mafia.
[red]There is no guarantee that Mafia won't change votes at the last minute if 1 town falls for it and votes for KharadBanar, just like what Dittert is saying, to force the mis-lynch and win the game. Also tunneling me this long is good to look "newbie" and also create a link between myself and Dittert in everyone's mind, distracting people from looking at other possible scum (I've helped this a lot with my assertion that Dittert has been newb town all along, well either he's the most amazing newbie ever with the worst DT logic that knows how to breadcrumb, or the reality that I now see, he really is Mafia) Xatalos is scum because he has gone out of his way to vote me D3 (as he should, since we're the two likely candidates) but happens to conveniently switch to Dittert because imallinson convinced him to even though he made this post just before? Show nested quote +
However, I'd rather lynch Willz before Dittert. Dittert's last post is pretty much him claiming Mafia, but Willz is hugely more nefarious and might even convince town to lynch someone else in the endgame situation. Dittert, on the other hand, just keeps digging his own grave by fake claiming to protect Willz. Show nested quote +Well we probably need to come to a consensus on who to lynch and the terrible DT claim makes me more sure Dittert is scum than Willz. I'd say Dittert is 95% scum Willz 90%. So in my eyes we should go for Dittert. Also if we are sure Willz is scum it's easy enough to ignore his posts. Show nested quote +Alright, I can see your point. In order to win this game, we need to lynch one Mafia right now, and indeed Dittert is even slightly more suspicious than Willz at the moment. And Dittert flipping Mafia will make Willz 99% Mafia as well, so no need to worry about Willz talking his way out of this again.
##Unvote
##Vote: Dittert Note the second post, even if the vote goes through on Dittert and he flips red, Xatalos conveniently leaves this post to further incriminate me so that I will be lynched even if this plan doesn't work, really good thinking by a Mafia to do. Why would town set someone else up to be the next lynch just based on connection play? I believe this is a bus attempt by Xatalos and imallinson to both gain credit from Dittert's flip as well as to further set up my mis-lynch the following day. I do not believe these votes on Dittert will stick if they get lucky and one town votes for another town inadvertently.imallinson I'm not as confident as I am in this read because it's mostly based on connection play between him and Xatalos and his interactions with Dittert. I remember him subtly trying to support Xatalos early on against Arctic and then sheeped both the vote on Dittert, the vote on Xatalos, and the vote on Hiro D3 without any substantiation. His latest antics here make no sense from a town POV. Town doesn't know exactly who's Mafia or who's town, they can only use connection play after someone has already flipped to justify their case, going 1 by one. However imallinson posts this: Show nested quote +On April 19 2012 17:23 imallinson wrote:
#3: "THE MAFIA DON'T NEED TO FAKE DT CLAIM TO WIN." This is just wrong. If it looked like one scum member was going to get lynched then fake claiming DT is an excellent move. If we have no DT then it's an easy way to lynch one of the best town players. If we do then you have a decent chance to convince the town to lynch their own DT. Seeing as Xatalos was suspicious of your claim right away I don't think he is your scum buddy. It fits nicely if Willz is however.
#4: This is what I think is the most damning evidence against your claim. Why if you knew Kharad was scum would you vote for Xatalos? This makes me think you decided to fake claim after you saw Willz in trouble. There isn't any other explanation for this.
I think this makes you look insanely scummy and it makes Willz look like your scum buddy. However you are the more obvious lynch at the moment.
##Unvote
##Vote: Dittert So because Xatalos is around and active, and posts faster than I am that he's suspicious of Dittert's DT claim, imallinson dismisses the possibility that Dittert and Xatalos are connected? How does that work when you were talking during the night and post this: Show nested quote +On April 18 2012 07:45 imallinson wrote:@vonKlaust Imallinson:
I'm fine with him being suspicious about Xatalos, but his case against Acro and later me doesn't make much sense to me. This is not a list of Imallinsons top scum reads. This is a list of Imallinsons top scum reads IF Xatalos flips red. It would be nice if he could also provide us with a list of his top scum reads as the game looks at the moment.
(I know he presented alternative percentages on me and Acro if Xatalos would flip green, but he also said that 33% is a null read and he put Acro on 33% and me on 40%, we would still be unlikely to be his mafia reads if Xatalos would flip green) Acrofales already asked me to provide my top 3 minus the connection to Xatalos. It was #1: Xatalos #2: Dittert #3: Willz Although at this point I'd probably swap Dittert and Willz. imallinson says Xatalos, Dittert, and myself are his top scum reads. However he decides to vote me instead of Xatalos D3 with no weight to his opinion, but when Dittert makes his fake DT case, he assumes it's to only save his teammate Willz, and ignores Xatalos completely? Why would you as town ignore any possibility? Here is my point: imallinson was suspicious of Xatalos, but because Xatalos didn't believe in Dittert's fakeclaim, he finds that not suspicious and thinks I'm more likely to be Mafia in association No town should be convinced that easily, if a town's had consistent suspicions of someone, he is not likely to have them go away so suddenly, this is why I believed Dittert to be town, because he was at least consistent in tunneling me, contrast that with Xatalos' behavior, he has called out numerous people and is all over the place with his suspicions until finally he settles on me, but now this latest move by Dittert convinces both Xatalos and imallinson to switch off their initial vote candidate willz22912 to kill Dittert instead? Why aren't they just ignoring the fake DT claim because they don't believe it and continuing to vote me? Didn't Xatalos say I was the most dangerous Mafia here: Show nested quote +On April 18 2012 15:39 Xatalos wrote:
This is the deciding moment: if Willz is lynched, Mafia loses one member and the rest of Mafia are much easier to trace (Funcmode&Dittert?). If I'm lynched, town loses instantly. Read the filters of Willz and Acrofales, and choose town victory by voting for Willz. And here: Show nested quote +Willz's defense is good, but if he's the Mafia leader, it would make sense. Everyone also keeps saying the Mafia team is good, which means they have superior argumentation skills (the average Mafia is more skilled than the average town in this game). I don't think I can beat Willz straight-on with logic and argumentation, but I'll try breaking his defense later when I have more time. Although I have more confidence in you than myself making him slip his defense right now... For now, I ask everyone to think about this: Willz is clearly one of the most skilled players in this game, yet his almost only pro-town contribution so far is his weak and forced case against BroodKingEXE. Does that make any sense for a town player? And here: Show nested quote +You bring up a lot of good points, imallinson. I don't really think you're Mafia anymore... Why would you bus both of your teammates this hard in that case?
Right now my conclusion is this:
A) Willz is certainly Mafia
B) Dittert is certainly Mafia
C) Funcmode is probably Mafia
However, I'd rather lynch Willz before Dittert. Dittert's last post is pretty much him claiming Mafia, but Willz is hugely more nefarious and might even convince town to lynch someone else in the endgame situation. Dittert, on the other hand, just keeps digging his own grave by fake claiming to protect Willz.
Also note the highlighted part in red for this quote, considering I believe the Mafia team to be imallinson, Xatalos, Dittert This is exactly what they are doing, bussing Dittert in order to look Xatalos and imallinson look better. Also notice the three times Xatalos has believed me to be more of a danger than anyone else, and should be lynched first, but now he's willing to lynch Dittert because he fake-claimed DT? Why shouldn't I still be the lynch target? If I flip red like imallinson and Xatalos thinks, that gives more weight to Dittert being Mafia as well, not the other way around, especially since I'm the more dangerous Mafia no? All this is doing is discrediting me further, but not actually lynching me, this makes no sense from a town perspective. If you think a player is Mafia, you try and lynch them, not save them for later.
This post looks like you're just trying to WIFOM your way out of your connection with Dittert in preparation for him flipping red soon. It's also a convenient excuse to vote for Dittert soon and perhaps gain a bit of "town cred" when he flips... Although you've been saying he is town at every chance you've had so far, so you switching to him at the last moment doesn't really convince me of anything. My opinion remains unchanged, even a bit stronger: you should definitely be our next lynch.
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@ Xatalos
Why not lynch me now? You think we're both Mafia anyway, what's the difference or problem? (Is it because you can't convince other town to follow through now, but you can when you bus your teammate, since I've already associated myself with Dittert so strongly?)
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I agree 100% that this another last minute confusion play yet again.
##vote: dittert
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I'm sorry again that I haven't been active! The reason is as I said that I'm working and studying for an exam. I just got home from work, and all this is very exciting.
There is one thing that make me think that Dittert isn't necessary lying. Let's assume that Dittert is mafia and have been thinking about how to make this fake DT claim. It would make muuuuch more sense for him to claim that I was his mafia claim. I have been AFK alot, and when I have had time to write in the thread I haven't really contributed. This would first of all make me look more suspicious and it would be easier to get town to jump on my lynch, and it would be easier to win an argument with me since I don't have much case to make a strong defense or a counter case(not necessarily against Dittert).
Instead of going for the easy target, he went for the one that is pretty much a 90% town read by everyone. This does not make sense at all. Sure, you could argue that he would do this to psyche us and that we would see through his bluff if he did this. But I don't agree that that is likely. Even if he wouldn't pick me as his target, he could at least have picked Xatalos or Imallinson(which as far as I'm aware have been the last ones to recieve accusations). If he is mafia, picking KB as his mafia claim would pretty much be retarded. Also, if he did pick an easier target I'm not sure at all that we would take note of that as anything suspicious.
I agree with Ditterts' argument that it wouldn't make much sense for mafia to fake claim DT right now. So far, this game has gone 100% in mafias favour. Because of this, taking the risk of a fake DT claim would probably not be worth it in my opinion. Sure, they could potentially end the game right now, but as Day[9] would tell you it would probably be better to use your lead to try to come even more ahead rather than taking a huge risk and try to end it right away. It seems that you guys are 100% sure that we would lynch a mafia if they don't do a desperate move like this.
1. I don't agree that is true. I'm still not sure who I'll vote for tonight.
2. Even if that would be true, it's still very doubtful if it would be worth it to stick your neck out the way Dittert have.
I'll get back to you on my thoughts on Willz later.
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Does Yomis vote mean that Dittert is dead?
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Vote count is
Dittert: 4 (yomi, imallinson, Xatalos, KharadBanar)
KharadBanar: 1(dittert)
Xatalos: 1 (willz22912)
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Oh yeah. Now I remember. If Dittert is town, he is very likely to die now.
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EBWOB: Yes, vonKlaust, even if another candidate receives 4 votes to tie, Dittert received 4 first and is thus dead, wasting 5 hours of discussion.
I'm pretty unhappy right now with all of you(including town) being so ready to decide when we have time until deadline still, at least read my post and see if that makes sense. I have no class today so I'll be around to talk to.
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On April 20 2012 03:03 willz22912 wrote:
@ Xatalos
Why not lynch me now? You think we're both Mafia anyway, what's the difference or problem? (Is it because you can't convince other town to follow through now, but you can when you bus your teammate, since I've already associated myself with Dittert so strongly?)
What are you talking about...? My personal preference is lynching you first, but since Dittert just pretty much claimed Mafia, it's the "safer" play to lynch him now. Even though you are more dangerous than Dittert, Dittert is now certainly Mafia, while there is still a 0,1% chance of you being town. When he flips red now, we'll be in the path to victory: 5-2, and 4-2 after the night. It's still a must-lynch-correctly situation, but since you are pretty much quaranteed Mafia, it's self-explanatory to lynch you. Then it's 4-1 and 3-1 after the night. Even though I'm probably dead at that point, I have faith in the 3 remaining town to get 1 Mafia lynched (hint: Funcmode).
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I don't understand Yomi's vote... isn't the mass confusion play he's agreeing with Willz's point, who suggested voting Xatalos, not Dittert?
I'm so confused right now...
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On April 20 2012 03:12 vonKlaust wrote:
I'm sorry again that I haven't been active! The reason is as I said that I'm working and studying for an exam. I just got home from work, and all this is very exciting.
There is one thing that make me think that Dittert isn't necessary lying. Let's assume that Dittert is mafia and have been thinking about how to make this fake DT claim. It would make muuuuch more sense for him to claim that I was his mafia claim. I have been AFK alot, and when I have had time to write in the thread I haven't really contributed. This would first of all make me look more suspicious and it would be easier to get town to jump on my lynch, and it would be easier to win an argument with me since I don't have much case to make a strong defense or a counter case(not necessarily against Dittert).
Instead of going for the easy target, he went for the one that is pretty much a 90% town read by everyone. This does not make sense at all. Sure, you could argue that he would do this to psyche us and that we would see through his bluff if he did this. But I don't agree that that is likely. Even if he wouldn't pick me as his target, he could at least have picked Xatalos or Imallinson(which as far as I'm aware have been the last ones to recieve accusations). If he is mafia, picking KB as his mafia claim would pretty much be retarded. Also, if he did pick an easier target I'm not sure at all that we would take note of that as anything suspicious.
I agree with Ditterts' argument that it wouldn't make much sense for mafia to fake claim DT right now. So far, this game has gone 100% in mafias favour. Because of this, taking the risk of a fake DT claim would probably not be worth it in my opinion. Sure, they could potentially end the game right now, but as Day[9] would tell you it would probably be better to use your lead to try to come even more ahead rather than taking a huge risk and try to end it right away. It seems that you guys are 100% sure that we would lynch a mafia if they don't do a desperate move like this.
1. I don't agree that is true. I'm still not sure who I'll vote for tonight.
2. Even if that would be true, it's still very doubtful if it would be worth it to stick your neck out the way Dittert have.
I'll get back to you on my thoughts on Willz later.
Dittert's play is definitely stupid from a Mafia perspective, but it's also stupid from a town perspective - so it's not really an argument in Dittert's favor that his play is stupid. If he is the real Detective (statistical chance of 25%), he would have absolutely no reason to check 1) ArcticFox (whom everyone thought was town during Night 1) or 2) KharadBanar (whom everyone thought was town at every point). It would make much more sense to check someone like me, imallinson or Funcmode (not as certainly Mafia as Willz, but somewhat suspicious).
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@vonKlaust - Yes, I'm currently dead unless one of Xat, iamallinson, or yomi switches off me, and even then the remaining players all have to vote for the same person. It seems likely that I will die and this is gg.
For everyone else, we absolutely can not afford a mislynch. Right now, the only people you should be voting for are KB or myself. If you think I'm lying, then I must be mafia and vote me. If you think I'm telling the truth, vote KB so we can get a verified scum out of the game. Any other decision is illogical.
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If he is the real Detective (statistical chance of 25%)
Ooooh, this is very interesting to me. This could defenitly be a scumslip. This piece of statistics is correct, assuming you know that he is town. If you don't know that he is town, the chances of him being DT is 1/7.
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On April 20 2012 03:27 Dittert wrote:
@vonKlaust - Yes, I'm currently dead unless one of Xat, iamallinson, or yomi switches off me, and even then the remaining players all have to vote for the same person. It seems likely that I will die and this is gg.
For everyone else, we absolutely can not afford a mislynch. Right now, the only people you should be voting for are KB or myself. If you think I'm lying, then I must be mafia and vote me. If you think I'm telling the truth, vote KB so we can get a verified scum out of the game. Any other decision is illogical.
If only everything was so simple. While you definitely have a point (you're DT, KB is scum 100%, or you're scum 100%) the fact that there's a good chance the other mafia are potentially bussing you right now makes the whole situation far more complicated.
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On April 20 2012 03:31 funcmode wrote:Show nested quote +On April 20 2012 03:27 Dittert wrote:
@vonKlaust - Yes, I'm currently dead unless one of Xat, iamallinson, or yomi switches off me, and even then the remaining players all have to vote for the same person. It seems likely that I will die and this is gg.
For everyone else, we absolutely can not afford a mislynch. Right now, the only people you should be voting for are KB or myself. If you think I'm lying, then I must be mafia and vote me. If you think I'm telling the truth, vote KB so we can get a verified scum out of the game. Any other decision is illogical. If only everything was so simple. While you definitely have a point (you're DT, KB is scum 100%, or you're scum 100%) the fact that there's a good chance the other mafia are potentially bussing you right now makes the whole situation far more complicated.
Wait what? Why would they do that?
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On April 20 2012 03:23 funcmode wrote:
I don't understand Yomi's vote... isn't the mass confusion play he's agreeing with Willz's point, who suggested voting Xatalos, not Dittert?
I'm so confused right now...
well like dittert said (most logical thing of the game so far) you can only vote him or KB at this point.
why do this now? the day is 48 hours. why now? give me a break. I'm not going for this bs again.
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EPT
