|
On April 20 2012 03:29 vonKlaust wrote:Ooooh, this is very interesting to me. This could defenitly be a scumslip. This piece of statistics is correct, assuming you know that he is town. If you don't know that he is town, the chances of him being DT is 1/7.
I thought about that myself, but figured as there can only be 4 town remaining, and the DT obviously has to be a town, then 25% is still correct. You don't have to know he's town to make this point - if he's scum he's not DT, if he's town there is a 25% chance. I hope you understand what I mean, either way I'm not sure how much you can really conclude from this sort of "error".
|
On April 20 2012 03:32 vonKlaust wrote:Show nested quote +On April 20 2012 03:31 funcmode wrote:On April 20 2012 03:27 Dittert wrote:
@vonKlaust - Yes, I'm currently dead unless one of Xat, iamallinson, or yomi switches off me, and even then the remaining players all have to vote for the same person. It seems likely that I will die and this is gg.
For everyone else, we absolutely can not afford a mislynch. Right now, the only people you should be voting for are KB or myself. If you think I'm lying, then I must be mafia and vote me. If you think I'm telling the truth, vote KB so we can get a verified scum out of the game. Any other decision is illogical. If only everything was so simple. While you definitely have a point (you're DT, KB is scum 100%, or you're scum 100%) the fact that there's a good chance the other mafia are potentially bussing you right now makes the whole situation far more complicated. Wait what? Why would they do that?
Have you not been reading Willz's posts?
|
@ the statistic talk
There are 5 town alive, 3 mafia alive. Everyone is coming up with 25% because you're not going to count yourself as not-town(scumslip) so theres only 4 other town.
Claiming chance of dt is 1/7 is wrong because there are 3 mafia still in the game and they cannot be DT obviously.
|
For the record, at this point, I'm neither agreeing or disagreeing with Willz's posts, I'm simply stating they they do explain potential reasoning for a Xatalos/imallinson/Dittert scum team bussing Dittert to further their case against Willz, who if they save for later is a potentially easy mis-lynch, which to me is still an entirely possible scenario.
|
Dittert claiming now is completely and utterly pointless and all it has done is cause confusion. This would be the worst logic for a real DT, but if he's Mafia and getting bussed to give his teammates towncred, then his argument makes sense.
He claims that KB is scum, but we cannot verify his claim, therefore he gives us two choices, either voting Dittert(helping the bus and giving Xatalos/imallinson further towncred) or voting KharadBanar. If any town votes another town by accident, the 3 Mafia can make a coordinated last minute switch to force the mis-lynch. This is the best play Mafia could have done for D3, and I applaud them for making it, but I'm not falling for it.
I'm ignoring Dittert's claim and so should you.
|
Also, if Dittert was really DT, he should have waited to claim for another day to at least check someone else, the vote starting D3 was split 2-2 between Xatalos and myself (Dittert even voted Xatalos over me for some reason) I know if town mis-lynches me we lose, I believe Xatalos to be Mafia (and apparently so did Dittert at some point) so if we lynch him the game goes on. If he really is DT he wouldn't have claimed now and he would have just followed my vote and made sure the vote was still between Xatalos/myself to decide the game, throwing this out there isn't helping town from any perspective, thus I believe Dittert to be Mafia getting bussed by his teammates.
|
On April 20 2012 03:29 vonKlaust wrote:Ooooh, this is very interesting to me. This could defenitly be a scumslip. This piece of statistics is correct, assuming you know that he is town. If you don't know that he is town, the chances of him being DT is 1/7.
Sigh... As if Mafia would post an obvious Mafia slip without checking their post through first. This is a newbie game, but still...
The reason why I said 25% is this: there is absolutely no reason for Dittert to claim Detective as a non-Detective townie. I'm fairly certain there is only one Detective in this game, so his chance of actually being the Detective is 1 / (3 + 1) = 0,25.
|
A final thought before I leave for work:
The whole game, everyone's two biggest town reads have been Acro and KB. Acro is dead, but KB is not. What's even more confusing is that it would be very easy to lead a case against Acro on D3, given that he lead the mislynch charge against HiroPro on D2. If KB is the top town read, why hasn't he been shot? Why shoot AFox (who was mediocre at best) and Acro (who could have easily been mislynched)?
|
@Willz - I could not wait another day to make this claim, as if we lynched you tonight there is no other day.
|
Please town, for the love of god ignore this bus, vote Xatalos, and if he flips Mafia, then the game goes on and we can easily verify my claims of the scum-team from the 100% confirmation we get from his flip. Especially KB, if you are town and Dittert is making his case up then you don't need to vote him this minute and can ignore him, choose between lynching myself or Dittert like the original D3 was going to be.
Lynching Dittert when he's potentially getting bussed by his teammates is not the best town play we can make right now, either you believe my reasoning and lynch Xatalos, or you should lynch me because you believe Dittert is making a last second play to save me. However, how is Dittert making this claim "saving me" when he's tunneled me all game and I have defended him as well, creating an obvious connection between us. He also does nothing to deter suspicion from me, according to Xatalos if Dittert flips Mafia I should be the next obvious lynch anyway, how does this make sense if we're both Mafia, this is the worst plan ever if he's trying to deter attention from me to him, if anything he is creating MORE suspicion upon me so I become easier to mis-lynch D4.
|
@Willz - Also, you can't "ignore" my claim, based on the voting rules. I'm not switching off KB, as I know he is mafia. At least 3 people are not switching off me (those 3 being the mafia), as they know I am town and when they lynch me we lose. If you vote for someone other than me, it means I will die, which means you must believe I am mafia. Don't vote for someone besides me or KB. It just doesn't make any sense.
|
On April 20 2012 03:38 willz22912 wrote:
@ the statistic talk
There are 5 town alive, 3 mafia alive. Everyone is coming up with 25% because you're not going to count yourself as not-town(scumslip) so theres only 4 other town.
Claiming chance of dt is 1/7 is wrong because there are 3 mafia still in the game and they cannot be DT obviously.
Let's assume for a moment that Xatalos is scum and Dittert is a copper. Xatalos would know that Dittert is townie, but not if he is blue or not. He also knows who are his scumbuddies. From his perspecitve this would make the statistics of Dittert being cop 1/5.
From a town perspective, you don't know who are the mafia members, and the statistics would be 1/8.
What I'm thinking is that Xatalos slipped, and accidentally posted the mafia version of the statistics without thinking about that he should have used the town statistics. However he did remember to count himself out of the equation, landing on 25% instead of 20%. From a town perspective, counting himself out this would make 1/7.
Does this make any sense or am I just an idiot?
|
On April 20 2012 03:47 Dittert wrote:
A final thought before I leave for work:
The whole game, everyone's two biggest town reads have been Acro and KB. Acro is dead, but KB is not. What's even more confusing is that it would be very easy to lead a case against Acro on D3, given that he lead the mislynch charge against HiroPro on D2. If KB is the top town read, why hasn't he been shot? Why shoot AFox (who was mediocre at best) and Acro (who could have easily been mislynched)?
Really pointless WIFOM. If you all called me scummy for giving WIFOM about why Acrofales wasn't shot N1 and that I thought he was going to be shot N2 or otherwise he would be Mafia, then what do you make of this post. It's also equally scummy, he's not even trying very hard to push his case on KB, something that a real DT would be frantically trying to do (because DT's can be confused with Mafia so easily)
On April 20 2012 03:50 Dittert wrote:
@Willz - I could not wait another day to make this claim, as if we lynched you tonight there is no other day.
You could have continued your vote on Xatalos and let the town decide between Xatalos and myself, instead you created all this confusion. No, you're creating confusion on purpose and getting bussed by your teammates.
|
Also, consider the start of D2 when everyone was willing to lynch Dittert and he martyred himself, also anti-town play especially if he is the real DT. He was only saved because Hiro made his case against Xatalos and Acrofales made his case against Hiro.
Dittert's DT claim is fake but he's giving towncred to both Xatalos and imallinson by being bussed.
|
On April 20 2012 03:53 vonKlaust wrote:Show nested quote +On April 20 2012 03:38 willz22912 wrote:
@ the statistic talk
There are 5 town alive, 3 mafia alive. Everyone is coming up with 25% because you're not going to count yourself as not-town(scumslip) so theres only 4 other town.
Claiming chance of dt is 1/7 is wrong because there are 3 mafia still in the game and they cannot be DT obviously. Let's assume for a moment that Xatalos is scum and Dittert is a copper. Xatalos would know that Dittert is townie, but not if he is blue or not. He also knows who are his scumbuddies. From his perspecitve this would make the statistics of Dittert being cop 1/5. From a town perspective, you don't know who are the mafia members, and the statistics would be 1/8. What I'm thinking is that Xatalos slipped, and accidentally posted the mafia version of the statistics without thinking about that he should have used the town statistics. However he did remember to count himself out of the equation, landing on 25% instead of 20%. From a town perspective, counting himself out this would make 1/7. Does this make any sense or am I just an idiot?
Look at my previous post and stop that idiotic WIFOM. If you continue to ignore Willz and Dittert while trying to cast suspicion upon me instead, you might be the last Mafia instead of Funcmode.
|
Ooh, one more thought, and then I'm really leaving:
Willz, you really think the mafia are thinking along these lines?
Mafia 1: All we need to do today is get a mislynch and we win!
Mafia 2: Right-o. Obviously the best way to get a mislynch today is to fake a DT claim and then bus the faker, which makes us more likely to get mislynch tomorrow!
Mafia 3: Genius!
I really am banging my head on the desk now.
|
@Willz - If you're right about the Dittert/Xatalos/imallinson scum team, then lynching Xatalos tonight instead of Dittert makes some sense. But, as it stands, Xatalos' case against you links you with Dittert. And you're argument for them bussing Dittert also obviously means Dittert has to be scum.
It's very hard for me to throw my support entirely behind either of these claims, as both seem reasonable. However, the one thing they all hinge on is Dittert being scum. Let me put it another way, if we lynch Dittert tonight and he's scum, the game goes on. If we lynch Xatalos, who right now to me has a higher chance than Dittert of being town, the game might go on, with potentially better evidence to move forward, but if he is town, the game ends (and I guess you win?)
So, while I agree that there may be more benefit to lynching Xatalos if he does flip scum, do you not agree that Dittert is still a safer lynch target? You said yourself that at least until we have a scum flip, we have to lynch the strongest scum read.
|
On April 20 2012 03:51 willz22912 wrote:
Please town, for the love of god ignore this bus, vote Xatalos, and if he flips Mafia, then the game goes on and we can easily verify my claims of the scum-team from the 100% confirmation we get from his flip. Especially KB, if you are town and Dittert is making his case up then you don't need to vote him this minute and can ignore him, choose between lynching myself or Dittert like the original D3 was going to be.
Lynching Dittert when he's potentially getting bussed by his teammates is not the best town play we can make right now, either you believe my reasoning and lynch Xatalos, or you should lynch me because you believe Dittert is making a last second play to save me. However, how is Dittert making this claim "saving me" when he's tunneled me all game and I have defended him as well, creating an obvious connection between us. He also does nothing to deter suspicion from me, according to Xatalos if Dittert flips Mafia I should be the next obvious lynch anyway, how does this make sense if we're both Mafia, this is the worst plan ever if he's trying to deter attention from me to him, if anything he is creating MORE suspicion upon me so I become easier to mis-lynch D4.
I wrote a sentence wrong in the first paragraph, the sentence should be "choose between lynching myself or Xatalos like the original D3 was going to be."
|
On April 20 2012 04:09 funcmode wrote:
@Willz - If you're right about the Dittert/Xatalos/imallinson scum team, then lynching Xatalos tonight instead of Dittert makes some sense. But, as it stands, Xatalos' case against you links you with Dittert. And you're argument for them bussing Dittert also obviously means Dittert has to be scum.
It's very hard for me to throw my support entirely behind either of these claims, as both seem reasonable. However, the one thing they all hinge on is Dittert being scum. Let me put it another way, if we lynch Dittert tonight and he's scum, the game goes on. If we lynch Xatalos, who right now to me has a higher chance than Dittert of being town, the game might go on, with potentially better evidence to move forward, but if he is town, the game ends (and I guess you win?)
So, while I agree that there may be more benefit to lynching Xatalos if he does flip scum, do you not agree that Dittert is still a safer lynch target? You said yourself that at least until we have a scum flip, we have to lynch the strongest scum read.
This is still a vague and hesitant post, but at least it's better than what you've had so far. And you do bring up the most important point of lynching Dittert: no matter what, everyone thinks he's Mafia, so obviously it's best to lynch him now, since if we lynch a "less safe" Mafia and it was a mistake, it's game over.
|
@ funcmode, look at the votecount, Dittert is already dead, I have no need to vote him, your vote is also irrelevant. You can choose to vote Dittert as well, but it doesn't mean anything.
I am calling for all the real town to vote Xatalos instead now, including KB, to show that Dittert was being bussed by his teammates Xatalos and imallinson. The game is going to go on regardless if Dittert gets bussed by his teammates, the only information we will get is who gets shot N3, but gleaning information based on who Mafia shoot is completely WIFOM for town.
What do we get by guaranteeing Dittert's lynch, he flips scum but he doesn't incriminate anyone else except for me. If we lynch Xatalos we gain so much more information because this incriminates Dittert (because he was being bussed by Xatalos/imallinson) and to a large degree imallinson for their coordination.
|
|
|
|
|
|
EPT
