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On November 30 2011 05:25 Risen wrote:I believe Mattchew is a lurker-mafia. I do not think we should lynch him, I think he should be shot by lurker-vig. Mattchew has a total of 11 posts since he made it in. Of those, 5 are defending zeks. Having said that. Show nested quote +On November 27 2011 15:27 Mattchew wrote:
I honestly do not know what to say in this thread. I have no feelings as to who is scum and who is town, I don't want to point fingers and end up being wrong because I don't truly understand what I am reading. Scum behavior. Maybe you're new, but now that everyone has been saying people need to post so people can get a read, I think it's time to start posting. Show nested quote +On November 28 2011 21:16 Mattchew wrote:On November 28 2011 21:05 sandroba wrote:
I find it amuzing that you previously felt no need to comment on this game and that is your only post of substance. I think you are refering to me. This is the first time I have felt comfortable in saying anything. Before the clues it has all been politics and post analysis. I don't know how to decifer these things. I am much more comfortable talking about the clues. I think Ciryandor's linking to xttfc and kitaman's death holds more weight because it is a direct correlation but not as "in-your-face" as the syllo death palmar quoted. Either way xttfc has a couple fingers pointing at him. Says that he's more comfortable posting now, and then posts useless fluff. Relies on other people posting their thoughts so he can point to them and say, "Oh but I was just following their logic!" Show nested quote +On November 29 2011 00:41 Mattchew wrote:On November 29 2011 00:25 Match wrote:On November 28 2011 23:46 Mattchew wrote:
##vote ace
##vote risen Curious as to why you voted these two. Followed Palmar's 1 for 1 theory especially with ace calling so hard for his lynching while I write this. I figured that palmar can atleast leave us with double lynching if Ace is lynched first and actually turns out to be town. Followed people's reasoning for calling out risen aka: + Show Spoiler +On November 28 2011 23:25 Palmar wrote:Show nested quote +On November 28 2011 23:18 sandroba wrote:
@Palmar do you think there is any way that risen is not mafia? Yes, never underestimate how dumb townies can be. But it's very unlikely, seeing as he promptly decided to celebrate living the night through before he had any way of knowing he would survive. I'm cool with lynching/vigging/bombing/nuking him. On November 28 2011 23:31 zeks wrote:
I must say that it is fair for you guys to incriminate me based on those clues but I assure you all I'm Town and if any of you have played clue games you'd know not to go by clues alone because mods tend to make them hard and vague (usually easier to spot as days go on). I'll be posting a write-up on a few people who I think are good lynches based on clues and behaviour.
Although I have taken notice of Risen's major slip which I don't believe is pure coincidence. This can be linked to him
Syllogism was out for his morning run when he stopped to tie his laces. He ran in marathons, and so each day he followed the same routine of waking up in the morning, putting on his tracksuit and going for a half-hour long run through the forest behind his house. Today was no different. Often, the trail he used was completely empty of other people, and so he was surprised when he finished tying his shoes to look up and see a man in a black trench-coat standing off to the side of the trail ahead of him. He was even more surprised when the man lifted a rifle and put two bullets into his chest.
@Match my quote speaks of "woods" not forest
A backstory of my quote:
My quote from a poem by Robert Frost called "The Road Not Taken"
The quote really puts me on the chopping block cause anything with path or road or trail would be linked to me =| sigh.
Well thats my defense I don't know what else to say. I'll do my best to do some analysis before voting ends in the case that I do die.
Well at least he took note of the tiny clue Zeks posted when trying to justify a case against me. Be that as it may, he's using justification from Zeks, who would not want to point the finger at another mafia player. Zeks most likely went through the death notes and was searching for anything that would point to me, that way when people started voting for me it wouldn't appear that they were voting JUST based on a "scumslip". This is really good, because Zeks knows he's going to be lynched, by giving his scum brothers justification to vote me, they can all now say "Oh but the clues pointed to Risen AND he made a scumslip" Show nested quote +On November 29 2011 01:07 Mattchew wrote:On November 29 2011 00:58 sandroba wrote:
@Matchew How does that reasoning prove that either one of them must be scum?
I am not 100% sure of ANYONE being scum at this point. With only 16 scum to 54 towns people I like to think that the 1 for 1 odds of Palmar and Ace seems pretty decent for us to atleast eliminate 1 mafia. The risen guy slipped up in a scummy way and unless better analysis of clues are given I think this is the best lead we have. I don't hate the logic on zeks but I am not completely sold on it. I choose between risen and zeks for the second vote. If you or anyone can make a more compelling argument for zeks I will gladly vote him over risen Really? You think my one "scumslip" is the best read we have? Show nested quote +On November 30 2011 00:48 Mattchew wrote:
I sincerely doubt that we will be able to read anything into the mafia players based on one clue. As we let the clues build up the scum we are being pointed at will become more apparent. That being said, Zeks has not done a great job of defending himself against a ton of votes and accusations against him. Therefore my before votes of Risen and Palmar will now change to zeks and a either palmar or risen. I have yet to determine which is the safer vote for town. Now that he sees Zeks is going down he's abandoning ship and just voting for Zeks. Honestly, it would be less scummy in my opinion had he stuck to his guns on this. In conclusion, I don't think Mattchew has been contributing much of anything. He's lurking and using his posts to just follow other people's logic so he doesn't have to justify anything and can just point the finger to who "persuaded" him. He agrees now that Zeks is mafia but he still wants to vote for me based on Zeks' analysis of a clue? What?
2 things.
A. I am using others analysis because I have not ever played this before... how would I know what behaviors are scummy or not?. What I am doing is carefully picking which analysis I use and don't use based on what makes sense to me. I am not the only one to say that your scumslip is the best evidence we have nor am I changing my stance on Palmar. I was persuaded to vote away from him by annul and others not because I don't believe he is scum but because of the positional advantages to town that people have brought up.
B. I was never defending zeks or anyone. I just think that the clues are not as obvious as people are making them out to be. If zeks ends up being lynched and scum I will still reserve my doubts that the clue we used about the paths in the forest was even meant for him.
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On November 30 2011 05:31 Risen wrote:
I agree that we should wait for Zeks to flip. In addition, I think we should see what Mattchew defends himself with (other than a one-liner and a youtube clip)
And that is the same reason people are voting for you, yet you wonder why people are voting against your alleged scumslip. If I had to choose between the two, I would say you had a higher chance of flipping red.
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On November 30 2011 05:31 prplhz wrote:Show nested quote +On November 30 2011 05:18 sandroba wrote:On November 30 2011 05:15 prplhz wrote:On November 30 2011 04:59 sandroba wrote:
Don't bother with analysis risen, after what you posted it won't do us any good even if you are town =/ Rofl, you need to shut up. You are too lazy to play this game and now you tell other people not to play this game. Risen is fighting back, I think he should be shot tonight and not lynched today, but let him prove his innocence and maybe he can convince vigs not to shoot him (though I really hope they will). prplhz I challenge you to use your not terrible logic to explain to me how this post makes any sense. How it makes sense that I tell you not to tell newbies to stop posting analysis to try and prove their own innocence? I have no clue what you're getting at. @wherebugsgo My logic is not terrible. I know that Palmar is a very good mafia player, as both alignments. I know that it is not townie behavior to OMGUS BloodyC0bbler right after Ace died, and then post emotional speeches to prove his innocence instead of keeping his eyes on the ball. Palmar knows that you prove your innocence by posting analysis, not by just posting some poem or lyrics or whatever the hell that was. It looks to me like Palmar is trying to trade himself 1for1 successively with all other townies while refusing to show even a glimpse of what I know is a terrific scumhunter. I honestly don't know a lot about this "bad logic", did I ever display "good logic" in any games? I am not trying to claim the "bad defense", all I know is that Palmar's behavior doesn't make sense to me if he was townie. Can you explain it?
1. Townies OMGUS all the time. When there is a lack of other types of evidence OMGUS is generally useless. Players such as Palmar and I (and chaoser, for example) OMGUS a lot simply because it is in our style to attack players who think we are scum when we know we are not.
2. How can you trade yourself 1 for 1 with all townies? Get them all modkilled? Lol. I bet Palmar is frustrated with the direction this town is taking right now. Do you expect him to be able to be able to come up with a reasonable analysis when all he can think about is how dumb the current situation is?
3. Yeah, I've already debunked BC's case on Palmar. Go read it.
You're scum anyway though, I don't believe you've done anything particularly pro-town at all. Your mayor campaign was bad, you tried misleading people by saying you can tell between bad townies and actual scum, and you're acting ignorant when you know for a fact your case is bad.
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@risen after all this effort you are putting I think you are likely town. I'd much rather lynch serejai/decon/steveling. The only reason I'm voting for you right now is to save palmar. Also you might be onto something on the matchew dude who insta-delurked the moment you posted an attack on him.
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Mattchew why is it that you did absolutely nothing until Risen called you out?
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This is on the basis that bum made a case on supersoft. He then said "ss is more likely to be town" with the implication that bum making the case on SS, coupled with his scummy behavior, suggests that bum is pushing a townie.
Sandro is not connecting alignments here, because he doesn't say "bum and super are guaranteed to flip opposite" or anything of the sort. It would be like saying "if super flips town then bum is guaranteed town." Sandro has valid reasons to believe bum is scum based solely on what bum has been doing.
You, on the other hand, do not have a reason to believe super and bum are scum together. You haven't provided one, you just asserted it.
So it's okay to "connect alignments before someone flips" if you have "valid reasons"?
Sandroba's words were "that makes ss even more likely to be town". Mine were "can be explained". Yet apparently I "asserted" that some player is "likely" to be mafia. I never said that they are "guaranteed to flip" something or "anything of the sort".
You give your own meanings to everything you read.
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On November 30 2011 05:36 DeadlyPsycho wrote:Show nested quote +On November 30 2011 05:31 Risen wrote:
I agree that we should wait for Zeks to flip. In addition, I think we should see what Mattchew defends himself with (other than a one-liner and a youtube clip) And that is the same reason people are voting for you, yet you wonder why people are voting against your alleged scumslip. If I had to choose between the two, I would say you had a higher chance of flipping red.
Wait, what? I say I think we should give Mattchew a chance to defend himself and you call that red behavior? I'm advocating being conservative in our actions, that's not red at all. I'm not trying to use scare tactics and the like, I'm posting cases I have for various people who have scummy behavior in my opinion.
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On November 30 2011 05:38 wherebugsgo wrote:
Mattchew why is it that you did absolutely nothing until Risen called you out?
I have still done nothing even after risen called me out. I have not added anything because I have nothing to add... instead I read the 90% retarded and 10% decent posts and try to sift through that and base my analysis on the posts of people who have actually done this before.
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On November 30 2011 05:38 xtfftc wrote:Show nested quote +This is on the basis that bum made a case on supersoft. He then said "ss is more likely to be town" with the implication that bum making the case on SS, coupled with his scummy behavior, suggests that bum is pushing a townie.
Sandro is not connecting alignments here, because he doesn't say "bum and super are guaranteed to flip opposite" or anything of the sort. It would be like saying "if super flips town then bum is guaranteed town." Sandro has valid reasons to believe bum is scum based solely on what bum has been doing.
You, on the other hand, do not have a reason to believe super and bum are scum together. You haven't provided one, you just asserted it. So it's okay to "connect alignments before someone flips" if you have "valid reasons"? Sandroba's words were "that makes ss even more likely to be town". Mine were "can be explained". Yet apparently I "asserted" that some player is "likely" to be mafia. I never said that they are "guaranteed to flip" something or "anything of the sort". You give your own meanings to everything you read.
rofl.
You asked me if I thought supersoft was scum. I told you no.
Then you proceeded to assert that super+bum could be scum together, with no valid reasoning, in response to sandro telling you that he believes bum is scum for x y and z and so supersoft is additionally not likely to be scum.
I tell you that connecting players' alignments before they flip is a bad idea, and you make this into a debate of semantics.
If you think I'm dumb and don't believe super is unlikely to flip scum then go ahead and keep your vote on him. sandro is not dumb, however, so it would be nice if you actually gave his opinion some value.
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@xft I said IF ANYTHING, it point to ss being more likely town. This is not a game about acounting for all possibilties. It's a game about making educated guesses based on the situation and rolling with it. Bum's case on ss is shit. If it was on me I wouldn't bother responding to it either. Does that mean he is auto town? No. Do I think he is town despite him not responding the shit case on him? Yes.
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Can anyone link me to any cases posted on prplz?
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##Unvote Zeks
##Vote BloodyC0bbler
##Vote prplhz
That's three votes on each of them. It's more than enough time to get them both killed. If Zeks and Risen are mafia they are much better than I'd expect them to be at it. Their defense looks genuine enough to me.
Thanks Bugs for writing up that defense for me. It is constructed well enough so that I have a reason to believe you are town. Or well, town stands to gain nothing from lynching you at any point (checking you at some point might be useful though).
For what it's worth, obviously there can be mafia trying to deflect the lynch away from me, so don't give the people trying to stop my lynch automatic town read. However, the loudest and most active people defending me are very likely to be town.
I would suggest town listens to WBG and Sandroba as much as possible. I would also suggest they be protected by medics, even multiple.
I would suggest you guys lynch prplhz and BloodyC0bbler.
I will be around later tonight, probably not early enough to stop any lynch train against me, but still enough for me to give the reads needed to actually help town progress after I'm gone.
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On November 30 2011 05:41 Mattchew wrote:Show nested quote +On November 30 2011 05:38 wherebugsgo wrote:
Mattchew why is it that you did absolutely nothing until Risen called you out? I have still done nothing even after risen called me out. I have not added anything because I have nothing to add... instead I read the 90% retarded and 10% decent posts and try to sift through that and base my analysis on the posts of people who have actually done this before.
no, you certainly did a lot once Risen called you out.
Why is it that you haven't been trying to salvage the mess if you think 90% of the posts are retarded?
Why sit back and watch the town burn?
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On November 30 2011 05:43 sandroba wrote:
@xft I said IF ANYTHING, it point to ss being more likely town. This is not a game about acounting for all possibilties. It's a game about making educated guesses based on the situation and rolling with it. Bum's case on ss is shit. If it was on me I wouldn't bother responding to it either. Does that mean he is auto town? No. Do I think he is town despite him not responding the shit case on him? Yes.
I have no problem with what you said, I have a problem with WBG making up stuff.
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On November 30 2011 05:39 Risen wrote:
I'm advocating being conservative in our actions, that's not red at all.
lol generally speaking red IS the color associated with conservatives, e.g. "red state"
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By the way:
On November 29 2011 15:16 Kenpachi wrote:Show nested quote +On November 29 2011 15:11 bumatlarge wrote:On November 29 2011 15:05 Kenpachi wrote:
lol. ok w/e. your accusation is pretty bad cause Id say the fact that bum is attacking me is quite scummy itself since im a pretty easy target for mafia. He also was very shady in his posts by not backing up anything he says. I believe i said everything possible about bum at the moment. "I'm so easy to lynch because I am scum" Do you ever think to yourself, "why?" If you can do an analysis similar to what you did on me to one other person, I'll take my vote off you until I can get a proper read on you. I don't care what the verdict is, just do something without having to be prodded to. k challenge accepted
On November 29 2011 15:16 Kenpachi wrote:
ill do it tmrw. im going to sleep
Is Kenpachi still asleep? Or lurking? Hmmm...
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On November 30 2011 05:41 Mattchew wrote:Show nested quote +On November 30 2011 05:38 wherebugsgo wrote:
Mattchew why is it that you did absolutely nothing until Risen called you out? I have still done nothing even after risen called me out. I have not added anything because I have nothing to add... instead I read the 90% retarded and 10% decent posts and try to sift through that and base my analysis on the posts of people who have actually done this before.
If you can actually tell 90% of the posts here are retarded your opinion would be much apreciated. Care to enlighten us about which posts are retarded and why, and what do you make of all of this?
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On November 30 2011 05:44 xtfftc wrote:Show nested quote +On November 30 2011 05:43 sandroba wrote:
@xft I said IF ANYTHING, it point to ss being more likely town. This is not a game about acounting for all possibilties. It's a game about making educated guesses based on the situation and rolling with it. Bum's case on ss is shit. If it was on me I wouldn't bother responding to it either. Does that mean he is auto town? No. Do I think he is town despite him not responding the shit case on him? Yes. I have no problem with what you said, I have a problem with WBG making up stuff.
I'm not making up shit.
Here you go again, asserting things without evidence.
I realize you don't like my style of play, that you think I'm dumb, that I make wrong calls all the time, whatever.
If you're town and you want town to win then you'll realize that your vote on supersoft is an utter waste and basically an abstention. You have no clout in town right now and it's almost entirely due to your ridiculous stubbornness.
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Again, I dont think we should be voting for Palmar or BC, we will lose all of our double lynches...
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On November 30 2011 05:38 sandroba wrote:
@risen after all this effort you are putting I think you are likely town. I'd much rather lynch serejai/decon/steveling. The only reason I'm voting for you right now is to save palmar. Also you might be onto something on the matchew dude who insta-delurked the moment you posted an attack on him.
I agree with this reasoning. Read his day 1 filter too, he seems very genuine in his posts.
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=285690&user=62525
He is for example not afraid to change his mind, and explains his thought process while doing that. I never had a scum-read on him, which is why I never voted him when you were pushing for it sandroba.
So no, even if the idea is to safe myself, I'm not going to be voting for a Risen lynch today, I actually think he looks pretty town compared to most people. His "scumslip" was probably just a misunderstanding on game mechanics.
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EPT
