On November 30 2011 05:10 wherebugsgo wrote: Drazerk do you have any reads other than BC/Risen/zeks?
I agree that Risen's and Zeks's recent behavior has been somewhat strange but they are both new players and are facing lynch. Players in that type of situation tend to act in unexpected ways.
Other than them three my other main target would be prplhz due to his actions and a general bad vibe I get from him
On November 30 2011 04:59 sandroba wrote: Don't bother with analysis risen, after what you posted it won't do us any good even if you are town =/
Rofl, you need to shut up. You are too lazy to play this game and now you tell other people not to play this game. Risen is fighting back, I think he should be shot tonight and not lynched today, but let him prove his innocence and maybe he can convince vigs not to shoot him (though I really hope they will).
prplhz I challenge you to use your not terrible logic to explain to me how this post makes any sense.
On November 30 2011 05:03 sandroba wrote: @xft based on night kills alone bum has a ultra high chance of being scum. Jackal and redFF(?) shot and bum still alive? He had like 0 chance of atracting medics due to activity. Coupled with the fact that he is lurking his ass off while town is self destructing, you see where I'm going. If anything that makes ss even more likely to be town.
I don't have a read on Bum, I just like his case. But if we carry on this train of thought, Supersoft completely ignoring the rather serious case on him can be explained with both of them being mafia.
no, it can't.
Name one logical reason why we should connect bum and supersoft based on the fact that supersoft is ignoring the case on himself.
You don't ever connect alignments before someone flips. If you think two people are scum together you lynch the one who is more likely to be scum and then once he flips you reevaluate.
If either of them is town your theory is flushed down the toilet.
Look at Sandroba's post and you will realise what the point of mine was.
sandro's post suggested that super and bum are of opposite alignments, and he provided solid reasoning for it.
You suggest that they are likely to be the same alignment based on supersoft ignoring the case on himself.
On November 30 2011 05:19 wherebugsgo wrote: sandro's post suggested that super and bum are of opposite alignments, and he provided solid reasoning for it.
You suggest that they are likely to be the same alignment based on supersoft ignoring the case on himself.
That doesn't even make sense.
You don't ever connect alignments before someone flips.
EBWOP: and seriously, be a bit more careful. I never suggested it, I said that if we follow the same type of reasoning Sandroba does, this is another possibility.
Have you ever loved someone so much, you'd give an arm for? Not the expression, no, literally give an arm for? When they know they're your heart And you know you were their armour And you will destroy anyone who would try to harm them But what happens when karma, turns right around and bites you? And everything you stand for, turns on you to spite you? What happens when you become the main source of their pain?
I fucked up.
I don't know where I went wrong, but I'm sure I will see it at some point. I am on a one way train to get-hanged-ville, and worst of all is I don't know what I did wrong. I have been doing extremely well as town lately in mafia, so I felt like I could trust myself to do this. Man, that backfired.
I did provide the best reasoning I had, on a day that had very, very little discussion going on. Sure, you can argue that the correct move would've been to lynch an inactive or a lurker, but I am a firm believer in not changing things that are working. I was on a seven game streak of accusing mafia on day 1. Why would I not trust myself?
Tebow may be the worst QB in the NFL, but they're not gonna bench him until he starts losing.
The fear of me being mafia is eclipsing way too much in the thread. Maybe the best way to settle this is for me to die. I mean, it's not obvious to any of you until I flip, but what Ace did infuriated me so much. It is impossible to set trap for townies, because they can't spring it by definition, so my assumption was that he actually had some kind of a plan to get a better read on my alignment.
Counting on Ace to be a reliable ally this game I decided to put a lot of effort into giving answers to him, only to find out the entire thing was just a ploy with no clear goal in mind, perhaps only to reinforce his already incorrect belief. Half the things he used as arguments weren't even correct, or at least pulled out of context. I guess you guys can imagine how much this frustrated me. In a game I'm already pouring my heart and soul in with so much activity, only to be stifled by having to spend the considerable time I'm putting into this game defending myself.
I feel like shit. I felt like I could do it, lead the town and help as much as I possibly could, but I don't have the radiant shine of town that some other players possess when they're town. This is my mistake, I should have known it. I acted as de-facto leader of town in Real Time Mafia, and yet, with 5/6 mafia down by day 3, and me leading at least 2 of those lynches, I still got heavily accused. I should have learned.
Maybe youngminii's remark that I should never be trusted should have been my first clue that this was not a good idea.
For anyone who wants perspective on why this is hard for me, you should probably know how I feel about playing mafia in general. I'll quote myself from a few months ago.
So, reading up on Zorkmid's thing made me remember how fucking madI get at people who cry about bad towns or themselves being tunneled are. Like, really, there is no one responsible but you. If the town is not agreeing with your logic, even if you're right, it's not because they are bad, it's because you are not doing a good enough job convincing them.
If you are being tunneled, it's not because whoever is tunneling is bad, it's because you haven't clearly enough established your innocence. I don't care how bad the reasons for tunneling you are, if you get lynched, you're the problem, not the people who got you lynched. If someone got you lynched with terrible reasoning or on policy, good job them! Sure they may be town too, and thus be detrimental, but if you are town, you must be able to deflect that shit. Let that sink in for a moment. Someone came up with TERRIBLE reasons, and yet he still managed to get you lynched. How bad does that make you?
Getting lynched in a mafia game is always your own fault, there is nothing else that can make you get lynched than you failing. Even when the odds are stacked against you (you're red, and a dt has a check on you), the responsibility is yours to make sure they hang some other bastard.
If you think there exists something called "bad town" you're part of the problem. Part of your responsibility is to find out what kind of logic appeals to the town you're trying to convince. You'd not use the same methods to explain something to a bunch of kids, and to a board of executives. It's your responsibility to tailor-make the arguments to fit the people you're trying to convince.
If person a) says "LOL, YOU MAFIA" and you say "No, here's a detailed analysis of why you must be scum", yet the town lynches you anyway, it's YOUR fault. You did not recognize what arguments would work with the town you're playing with.
It's never someone else's fault. There is no such thing as bad towns.
The only answer to the question "Why did we lose?" is "Because I am terrible and must improve".
I'm sorry town. Maybe I was the problem.
Good luck
And when I'm gone, just carry on, don't mourn Rejoice every time you hear the sound of my voice Just know that I'm looking down on you smiling And I didn't feel a thing, So baby don't feel my pain Just smile back
On November 27 2011 11:44 Palmar wrote: Lol, you're cute.
Are you appealing to emotions? As I have pointed out in one of my earliest posts, to which you have replied with the above statement, in this game emotions>information>logic on the hierarchy (which is where my name comes from by the way... it's not Heir ). Emotions control the way we perceive the information given to us, and based on that information (molded and sculptured by our emotions) we build our own logic. What makes your post different from mine is that your appeal was done at the correct timing, where as mine was not. You are very good at this game. I will strive to play like you. However, that was the biggest mafia indicator out of all the posts that you have made, and there are many such posts that point at you being mafia.
So what happens when the mafia mayor gives up? His supporters suddenly try to save him. Like vaderseven:
On November 30 2011 03:05 vaderseven wrote: ##unvote heir and ##vote risen
What happened? You were so adamantly insisting that I was scum. Well, you are trying to save Palmar by squeezing him out of the top two lynch candidates. You have even said so, that's fine. But the problem arises when the reason to save Palmar comes up, illustrated in this post. So the reason that pushed you over to save Palmar is not because of the double lynch, but because of his 3-vote power. That, unlike the double lynch, only helps town if Palmar, himself, is town. Why are you so sure he is one? You have attacked Palmar's attempt at controlling power roles here, which is fine, but now you are suddenly so sure Palmar is town that you are willing to switch votes to try and save the 3-vote power? That power actually hurts town if Palmar is scum (unlike the double lynch, which actually has some logic behind it, even if people may disagree with it, understandably). In this case Palmar simply dumped his vote on a target that's not suspicious; everyone is voting zeks anyway.
On November 30 2011 05:19 wherebugsgo wrote: sandro's post suggested that super and bum are of opposite alignments, and he provided solid reasoning for it.
You suggest that they are likely to be the same alignment based on supersoft ignoring the case on himself.
@sand. About bum; couldn't a lurker bane take out bum? Seems like a good case to me. Or do you prefer to guarantee the hit as opposed to chancing a lurker hit?
Also, I haven't voted yet because I'm still not entirely sure who to vote for. I don't like the zeks lynch because I think the clues would be more discreet than that. If they were so obvious then we wouldn't have to argue so much about the second lynch, plus I think the mods would want to encourage the new players to go into more analysis than "the kill mentioned a path less taken. he talks about the same thing, therefore he's scum"
I believe Mattchew is a lurker-mafia. I do not think we should lynch him, I think he should be shot by lurker-vig.
Mattchew has a total of 11 posts since he made it in. Of those, 5 are defending zeks.
Having said that.
On November 27 2011 15:27 Mattchew wrote: I honestly do not know what to say in this thread. I have no feelings as to who is scum and who is town, I don't want to point fingers and end up being wrong because I don't truly understand what I am reading.
Scum behavior. Maybe you're new, but now that everyone has been saying people need to post so people can get a read, I think it's time to start posting.
On November 28 2011 21:05 sandroba wrote: I find it amuzing that you previously felt no need to comment on this game and that is your only post of substance.
I think you are refering to me. This is the first time I have felt comfortable in saying anything. Before the clues it has all been politics and post analysis. I don't know how to decifer these things. I am much more comfortable talking about the clues. I think Ciryandor's linking to xttfc and kitaman's death holds more weight because it is a direct correlation but not as "in-your-face" as the syllo death palmar quoted. Either way xttfc has a couple fingers pointing at him.
Says that he's more comfortable posting now, and then posts useless fluff. Relies on other people posting their thoughts so he can point to them and say, "Oh but I was just following their logic!"
On November 28 2011 23:46 Mattchew wrote: ##vote ace ##vote risen
Curious as to why you voted these two.
Followed Palmar's 1 for 1 theory especially with ace calling so hard for his lynching while I write this. I figured that palmar can atleast leave us with double lynching if Ace is lynched first and actually turns out to be town.
Followed people's reasoning for calling out risen aka: + Show Spoiler +
On November 28 2011 23:10 Ciryandor wrote: In any case, besides zeks, people have forgotten about Risen's post here: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=12490813 and note the timestamp. It's before the nightpost came out, and after people called him out on it, he repeats the EXACT SAME POST http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=12491027 after the update shows up. I don't see any real links to his profile from the possible clues in the deathposts, but his lack of response deserves some scrutiny.
On November 28 2011 23:18 sandroba wrote: @Palmar do you think there is any way that risen is not mafia?
Yes, never underestimate how dumb townies can be.
But it's very unlikely, seeing as he promptly decided to celebrate living the night through before he had any way of knowing he would survive.
I'm cool with lynching/vigging/bombing/nuking him.
On November 28 2011 23:31 zeks wrote: I must say that it is fair for you guys to incriminate me based on those clues but I assure you all I'm Town and if any of you have played clue games you'd know not to go by clues alone because mods tend to make them hard and vague (usually easier to spot as days go on). I'll be posting a write-up on a few people who I think are good lynches based on clues and behaviour.
Although I have taken notice of Risen's major slip which I don't believe is pure coincidence. This can be linked to him
Syllogism was out for his morning run when he stopped to tie his laces. He ran in marathons, and so each day he followed the same routine of waking up in the morning, putting on his tracksuit and going for a half-hour long run through the forest behind his house. Today was no different. Often, the trail he used was completely empty of other people, and so he was surprised when he finished tying his shoes to look up and see a man in a black trench-coat standing off to the side of the trail ahead of him. He was even more surprised when the man lifted a rifle and put two bullets into his chest.
@Match my quote speaks of "woods" not forest
A backstory of my quote: My quote from a poem by Robert Frost called "The Road Not Taken"
The quote really puts me on the chopping block cause anything with path or road or trail would be linked to me =| sigh.
Well thats my defense I don't know what else to say. I'll do my best to do some analysis before voting ends in the case that I do die.
Well at least he took note of the tiny clue Zeks posted when trying to justify a case against me. Be that as it may, he's using justification from Zeks, who would not want to point the finger at another mafia player. Zeks most likely went through the death notes and was searching for anything that would point to me, that way when people started voting for me it wouldn't appear that they were voting JUST based on a "scumslip". This is really good, because Zeks knows he's going to be lynched, by giving his scum brothers justification to vote me, they can all now say "Oh but the clues pointed to Risen AND he made a scumslip"
On November 29 2011 00:58 sandroba wrote: @Matchew How does that reasoning prove that either one of them must be scum?
I am not 100% sure of ANYONE being scum at this point. With only 16 scum to 54 towns people I like to think that the 1 for 1 odds of Palmar and Ace seems pretty decent for us to atleast eliminate 1 mafia.
The risen guy slipped up in a scummy way and unless better analysis of clues are given I think this is the best lead we have.
I don't hate the logic on zeks but I am not completely sold on it. I choose between risen and zeks for the second vote. If you or anyone can make a more compelling argument for zeks I will gladly vote him over risen
Really? You think my one "scumslip" is the best read we have?
On November 30 2011 00:48 Mattchew wrote: I sincerely doubt that we will be able to read anything into the mafia players based on one clue. As we let the clues build up the scum we are being pointed at will become more apparent. That being said, Zeks has not done a great job of defending himself against a ton of votes and accusations against him. Therefore my before votes of Risen and Palmar will now change to zeks and a either palmar or risen. I have yet to determine which is the safer vote for town.
Now that he sees Zeks is going down he's abandoning ship and just voting for Zeks. Honestly, it would be less scummy in my opinion had he stuck to his guns on this.
In conclusion, I don't think Mattchew has been contributing much of anything. He's lurking and using his posts to just follow other people's logic so he doesn't have to justify anything and can just point the finger to who "persuaded" him. He agrees now that Zeks is mafia but he still wants to vote for me based on Zeks' analysis of a clue? What?
On November 30 2011 05:19 wherebugsgo wrote: sandro's post suggested that super and bum are of opposite alignments, and he provided solid reasoning for it.
You suggest that they are likely to be the same alignment based on supersoft ignoring the case on himself.
That doesn't even make sense.
You don't ever connect alignments before someone flips.
that's not an alignment connection.
Sandro suggested bum and super are of opposite alignments, but he didn't base bum being scum on what super is doing.
He based it on what bum is doing.
You, on the other hand, said super and bum are likely to be scum since super is ignoring the case on himself. How does that say anything about bum?
Do you understand the distinction?
1:
On November 30 2011 05:03 sandroba wrote: @xft based on night kills alone bum has a ultra high chance of being scum. Jackal and redFF(?) shot and bum still alive? He had like 0 chance of atracting medics due to activity. Coupled with the fact that he is lurking his ass off while town is self destructing, you see where I'm going.If anything that makes ss even more likely to be town.
and 2:
I never said he is likely to be mafia because of that, I said that it "can be explained", which is totally different.
And you wonder why people are seriously considering lynching you...
On November 30 2011 04:11 annul wrote: BC is a member of the mafia.
do not let him become mayor.
there i said it
we need to get off of palmar because BC is going to sit on double lynches. if we kill palmar and we kill BC then we lose the double lynches, period. 1 mafia sacrificed for 3 DLs... great trade for them.
So with votes currently as they stand, who do you suggest voting for? Join the mass swap to supersoft? I think Palmar needs to get his triple vote off ace and zeks, because zeks is almost assuredly going down now and Ace is out. Palmar's triple vote is going to be key in who gets lynched. As it stands I don't see him using his triple on himself, and WBG/me are the only two who, if he put his vote on us, would overtake him at the moment. Then again, if he's really town he might try and persuade us to move over to someone like supersoft or xtfftc.
People I feel are most likely to be scum at this point in time. xtfftc, hier, supersoft, prplhz, kenpachi, deconduo, blind-rawr, bloodycobbler, vaderseven, tree.hugger, StimilantE, Lanaia, Drazerk, Mattchew, Ciryandor, sandroba.
I'm going to go through this list and make an analysis on each player now. Expect it in about an hour. See you then o/
Don't get too scared if you're on this list and you're town. I'm just building cases against you, and if you're town you'll be able to defend yourself. As it stands apparently a lot of people think I'm mafia. I'm writing up this analysis so people can look back if I get lynched and see it in a new light. Here's to hoping I'm right.
lol so basically "if you vote against me your mafia."
On November 30 2011 05:25 Risen wrote: I believe Mattchew is a lurker-mafia. I do not think we should lynch him, I think he should be shot by lurker-vig.
Mattchew has a total of 11 posts since he made it in. Of those, 5 are defending zeks.
On November 27 2011 15:27 Mattchew wrote: I honestly do not know what to say in this thread. I have no feelings as to who is scum and who is town, I don't want to point fingers and end up being wrong because I don't truly understand what I am reading.
Scum behavior. Maybe you're new, but now that everyone has been saying people need to post so people can get a read, I think it's time to start posting.
On November 28 2011 21:05 sandroba wrote: I find it amuzing that you previously felt no need to comment on this game and that is your only post of substance.
I think you are refering to me. This is the first time I have felt comfortable in saying anything. Before the clues it has all been politics and post analysis. I don't know how to decifer these things. I am much more comfortable talking about the clues. I think Ciryandor's linking to xttfc and kitaman's death holds more weight because it is a direct correlation but not as "in-your-face" as the syllo death palmar quoted. Either way xttfc has a couple fingers pointing at him.
Says that he's more comfortable posting now, and then posts useless fluff. Relies on other people posting their thoughts so he can point to them and say, "Oh but I was just following their logic!"
On November 28 2011 23:46 Mattchew wrote: ##vote ace ##vote risen
Curious as to why you voted these two.
Followed Palmar's 1 for 1 theory especially with ace calling so hard for his lynching while I write this. I figured that palmar can atleast leave us with double lynching if Ace is lynched first and actually turns out to be town.
Followed people's reasoning for calling out risen aka: + Show Spoiler +
On November 28 2011 23:10 Ciryandor wrote: In any case, besides zeks, people have forgotten about Risen's post here: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=12490813 and note the timestamp. It's before the nightpost came out, and after people called him out on it, he repeats the EXACT SAME POST http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=12491027 after the update shows up. I don't see any real links to his profile from the possible clues in the deathposts, but his lack of response deserves some scrutiny.
On November 28 2011 23:18 sandroba wrote: @Palmar do you think there is any way that risen is not mafia?
Yes, never underestimate how dumb townies can be.
But it's very unlikely, seeing as he promptly decided to celebrate living the night through before he had any way of knowing he would survive.
I'm cool with lynching/vigging/bombing/nuking him.
On November 28 2011 23:31 zeks wrote: I must say that it is fair for you guys to incriminate me based on those clues but I assure you all I'm Town and if any of you have played clue games you'd know not to go by clues alone because mods tend to make them hard and vague (usually easier to spot as days go on). I'll be posting a write-up on a few people who I think are good lynches based on clues and behaviour.
Although I have taken notice of Risen's major slip which I don't believe is pure coincidence. This can be linked to him
Syllogism was out for his morning run when he stopped to tie his laces. He ran in marathons, and so each day he followed the same routine of waking up in the morning, putting on his tracksuit and going for a half-hour long run through the forest behind his house. Today was no different. Often, the trail he used was completely empty of other people, and so he was surprised when he finished tying his shoes to look up and see a man in a black trench-coat standing off to the side of the trail ahead of him. He was even more surprised when the man lifted a rifle and put two bullets into his chest.
@Match my quote speaks of "woods" not forest
A backstory of my quote: My quote from a poem by Robert Frost called "The Road Not Taken"
The quote really puts me on the chopping block cause anything with path or road or trail would be linked to me =| sigh.
Well thats my defense I don't know what else to say. I'll do my best to do some analysis before voting ends in the case that I do die.
Well at least he took note of the tiny clue Zeks posted when trying to justify a case against me. Be that as it may, he's using justification from Zeks, who would not want to point the finger at another mafia player. Zeks most likely went through the death notes and was searching for anything that would point to me, that way when people started voting for me it wouldn't appear that they were voting JUST based on a "scumslip". This is really good, because Zeks knows he's going to be lynched, by giving his scum brothers justification to vote me, they can all now say "Oh but the clues pointed to Risen AND he made a scumslip"
On November 29 2011 00:58 sandroba wrote: @Matchew How does that reasoning prove that either one of them must be scum?
I am not 100% sure of ANYONE being scum at this point. With only 16 scum to 54 towns people I like to think that the 1 for 1 odds of Palmar and Ace seems pretty decent for us to atleast eliminate 1 mafia.
The risen guy slipped up in a scummy way and unless better analysis of clues are given I think this is the best lead we have.
I don't hate the logic on zeks but I am not completely sold on it. I choose between risen and zeks for the second vote. If you or anyone can make a more compelling argument for zeks I will gladly vote him over risen
Really? You think my one "scumslip" is the best read we have?
On November 30 2011 00:48 Mattchew wrote: I sincerely doubt that we will be able to read anything into the mafia players based on one clue. As we let the clues build up the scum we are being pointed at will become more apparent. That being said, Zeks has not done a great job of defending himself against a ton of votes and accusations against him. Therefore my before votes of Risen and Palmar will now change to zeks and a either palmar or risen. I have yet to determine which is the safer vote for town.
Now that he sees Zeks is going down he's abandoning ship and just voting for Zeks. Honestly, it would be less scummy in my opinion had he stuck to his guns on this.
In conclusion, I don't think Mattchew has been contributing much of anything. He's lurking and using his posts to just follow other people's logic so he doesn't have to justify anything and can just point the finger to who "persuaded" him. He agrees now that Zeks is mafia but he still wants to vote for me based on Zeks' analysis of a clue? What?
If that was the case, we would have to wait for Zeks' flip to say anything. If he is scum, then sure go ahead and rape Mattchew. I thought it was common sense that when you connect two persons like that you first wait for one of them to flip before doing anything to the other.
On November 30 2011 04:59 sandroba wrote: Don't bother with analysis risen, after what you posted it won't do us any good even if you are town =/
Why don't you defend yourself or explain why my analysis is bad instead of just trying to discredit me with an offhand remark. That is scum behavior.
stop derping.
If you're town you're acting the fool right now and if you're scum you sure are making it easier to catch you.
I have a town read on you, but you're currently ruining that.
I'm confused. Shouldn't he be defending himself instead of trying to discredit my analysis? Especially when I'm writing up my thoughts on SIXTEEN players right now? If people go with it and just discount what I say because he's just making offhand remarks about me, what's the point of even posting all this? I might as well say fuck town, fuck this shit, I'm not playing anymore.
On November 30 2011 05:19 wherebugsgo wrote: sandro's post suggested that super and bum are of opposite alignments, and he provided solid reasoning for it.
You suggest that they are likely to be the same alignment based on supersoft ignoring the case on himself.
That doesn't even make sense.
You don't ever connect alignments before someone flips.
that's not an alignment connection.
Sandro suggested bum and super are of opposite alignments, but he didn't base bum being scum on what super is doing.
He based it on what bum is doing.
You, on the other hand, said super and bum are likely to be scum since super is ignoring the case on himself. How does that say anything about bum?
On November 30 2011 05:03 sandroba wrote: @xft based on night kills alone bum has a ultra high chance of being scum. Jackal and redFF(?) shot and bum still alive? He had like 0 chance of atracting medics due to activity. Coupled with the fact that he is lurking his ass off while town is self destructing, you see where I'm going.If anything that makes ss even more likely to be town.
and 2:
I never said he is likely to be mafia because of that, I said that it "can be explained", which is totally different.
And you wonder why people are seriously considering lynching you...
rofl
I don't know why I'm bothering arguing with you, you can't actually understand what I'm saying.
Okay, let's try it one more time:
Sandro is saying that bum is scum based on 3 things:
1. night kills 2. chance of being medic protected 3. lack of activity during a time in which town is getting destroyed
This is on the basis that bum made a case on supersoft. He then said "ss is more likely to be town" with the implication that bum making the case on SS, coupled with his scummy behavior, suggests that bum is pushing a townie.
Sandro is not connecting alignments here, because he doesn't say "bum and super are guaranteed to flip opposite" or anything of the sort. It would be like saying "if super flips town then bum is guaranteed town." Sandro has valid reasons to believe bum is scum based solely on what bum has been doing.
You, on the other hand, do not have a reason to believe super and bum are scum together. You haven't provided one, you just asserted it.
On November 30 2011 04:59 sandroba wrote: Don't bother with analysis risen, after what you posted it won't do us any good even if you are town =/
Rofl, you need to shut up. You are too lazy to play this game and now you tell other people not to play this game. Risen is fighting back, I think he should be shot tonight and not lynched today, but let him prove his innocence and maybe he can convince vigs not to shoot him (though I really hope they will).
prplhz I challenge you to use your not terrible logic to explain to me how this post makes any sense.
How it makes sense that I tell you not to tell newbies to stop posting analysis to try and prove their own innocence? I have no clue what you're getting at.
@wherebugsgo
My logic is not terrible. I know that Palmar is a very good mafia player, as both alignments. I know that it is not townie behavior to OMGUS BloodyC0bbler right after Ace died, and then post emotional speeches to prove his innocence instead of keeping his eyes on the ball. Palmar knows that you prove your innocence by posting analysis, not by just posting some poem or lyrics or whatever the hell that was. It looks to me like Palmar is trying to trade himself 1for1 successively with all other townies while refusing to show even a glimpse of what I know is a terrific scumhunter.
I honestly don't know a lot about this "bad logic", did I ever display "good logic" in any games? I am not trying to claim the "bad defense", all I know is that Palmar's behavior doesn't make sense to me if he was townie. Can you explain it?
On November 30 2011 05:25 Risen wrote: I believe Mattchew is a lurker-mafia. I do not think we should lynch him, I think he should be shot by lurker-vig.
Mattchew has a total of 11 posts since he made it in. Of those, 5 are defending zeks.
On November 27 2011 15:27 Mattchew wrote: I honestly do not know what to say in this thread. I have no feelings as to who is scum and who is town, I don't want to point fingers and end up being wrong because I don't truly understand what I am reading.
Scum behavior. Maybe you're new, but now that everyone has been saying people need to post so people can get a read, I think it's time to start posting.
On November 28 2011 21:05 sandroba wrote: I find it amuzing that you previously felt no need to comment on this game and that is your only post of substance.
I think you are refering to me. This is the first time I have felt comfortable in saying anything. Before the clues it has all been politics and post analysis. I don't know how to decifer these things. I am much more comfortable talking about the clues. I think Ciryandor's linking to xttfc and kitaman's death holds more weight because it is a direct correlation but not as "in-your-face" as the syllo death palmar quoted. Either way xttfc has a couple fingers pointing at him.
Says that he's more comfortable posting now, and then posts useless fluff. Relies on other people posting their thoughts so he can point to them and say, "Oh but I was just following their logic!"
On November 28 2011 23:46 Mattchew wrote: ##vote ace ##vote risen
Curious as to why you voted these two.
Followed Palmar's 1 for 1 theory especially with ace calling so hard for his lynching while I write this. I figured that palmar can atleast leave us with double lynching if Ace is lynched first and actually turns out to be town.
Followed people's reasoning for calling out risen aka: + Show Spoiler +
On November 28 2011 23:10 Ciryandor wrote: In any case, besides zeks, people have forgotten about Risen's post here: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=12490813 and note the timestamp. It's before the nightpost came out, and after people called him out on it, he repeats the EXACT SAME POST http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=12491027 after the update shows up. I don't see any real links to his profile from the possible clues in the deathposts, but his lack of response deserves some scrutiny.
On November 28 2011 23:18 sandroba wrote: @Palmar do you think there is any way that risen is not mafia?
Yes, never underestimate how dumb townies can be.
But it's very unlikely, seeing as he promptly decided to celebrate living the night through before he had any way of knowing he would survive.
I'm cool with lynching/vigging/bombing/nuking him.
On November 28 2011 23:31 zeks wrote: I must say that it is fair for you guys to incriminate me based on those clues but I assure you all I'm Town and if any of you have played clue games you'd know not to go by clues alone because mods tend to make them hard and vague (usually easier to spot as days go on). I'll be posting a write-up on a few people who I think are good lynches based on clues and behaviour.
Although I have taken notice of Risen's major slip which I don't believe is pure coincidence. This can be linked to him
Syllogism was out for his morning run when he stopped to tie his laces. He ran in marathons, and so each day he followed the same routine of waking up in the morning, putting on his tracksuit and going for a half-hour long run through the forest behind his house. Today was no different. Often, the trail he used was completely empty of other people, and so he was surprised when he finished tying his shoes to look up and see a man in a black trench-coat standing off to the side of the trail ahead of him. He was even more surprised when the man lifted a rifle and put two bullets into his chest.
@Match my quote speaks of "woods" not forest
A backstory of my quote: My quote from a poem by Robert Frost called "The Road Not Taken"
The quote really puts me on the chopping block cause anything with path or road or trail would be linked to me =| sigh.
Well thats my defense I don't know what else to say. I'll do my best to do some analysis before voting ends in the case that I do die.
Well at least he took note of the tiny clue Zeks posted when trying to justify a case against me. Be that as it may, he's using justification from Zeks, who would not want to point the finger at another mafia player. Zeks most likely went through the death notes and was searching for anything that would point to me, that way when people started voting for me it wouldn't appear that they were voting JUST based on a "scumslip". This is really good, because Zeks knows he's going to be lynched, by giving his scum brothers justification to vote me, they can all now say "Oh but the clues pointed to Risen AND he made a scumslip"
On November 29 2011 00:58 sandroba wrote: @Matchew How does that reasoning prove that either one of them must be scum?
I am not 100% sure of ANYONE being scum at this point. With only 16 scum to 54 towns people I like to think that the 1 for 1 odds of Palmar and Ace seems pretty decent for us to atleast eliminate 1 mafia.
The risen guy slipped up in a scummy way and unless better analysis of clues are given I think this is the best lead we have.
I don't hate the logic on zeks but I am not completely sold on it. I choose between risen and zeks for the second vote. If you or anyone can make a more compelling argument for zeks I will gladly vote him over risen
Really? You think my one "scumslip" is the best read we have?
On November 30 2011 00:48 Mattchew wrote: I sincerely doubt that we will be able to read anything into the mafia players based on one clue. As we let the clues build up the scum we are being pointed at will become more apparent. That being said, Zeks has not done a great job of defending himself against a ton of votes and accusations against him. Therefore my before votes of Risen and Palmar will now change to zeks and a either palmar or risen. I have yet to determine which is the safer vote for town.
Now that he sees Zeks is going down he's abandoning ship and just voting for Zeks. Honestly, it would be less scummy in my opinion had he stuck to his guns on this.
In conclusion, I don't think Mattchew has been contributing much of anything. He's lurking and using his posts to just follow other people's logic so he doesn't have to justify anything and can just point the finger to who "persuaded" him. He agrees now that Zeks is mafia but he still wants to vote for me based on Zeks' analysis of a clue? What?
If that was the case, we would have to wait for Zeks' flip to say anything. If he is scum, then sure go ahead and rape Mattchew. I thought it was common sense that when you connect two persons like that you first wait for one of them to flip before doing anything to the other.
I agree that we should wait for Zeks to flip. In addition, I think we should see what Mattchew defends himself with (other than a one-liner and a youtube clip)
Mattchew, if you look at the list of people I think are scum they're not all voting for me. How does what you said make any sense?
Voting for BC isnt the best move either today.. Tomorrow well have a palmar lynch on our hands again provided he lives today, especially IF BC flips town. If BOTH of them are gone, we will lose all our double lynches..
On November 30 2011 04:59 sandroba wrote: Don't bother with analysis risen, after what you posted it won't do us any good even if you are town =/
Why don't you defend yourself or explain why my analysis is bad instead of just trying to discredit me with an offhand remark. That is scum behavior.
stop derping.
If you're town you're acting the fool right now and if you're scum you sure are making it easier to catch you.
I have a town read on you, but you're currently ruining that.
I'm confused. Shouldn't he be defending himself instead of trying to discredit my analysis? Especially when I'm writing up my thoughts on SIXTEEN players right now? If people go with it and just discount what I say because he's just making offhand remarks about me, what's the point of even posting all this? I might as well say fuck town, fuck this shit, I'm not playing anymore.
I realize you're probably angry that people are trying to lynch you.
I'm pretty mad that town is in a mess right now too. However, if you are indeed town then you need to take a step back for a second and rethink your method of attack.
First of all, the reason I said that is because currently sandro is a terrible target for lynch. He is not very scummy and it is very unlikely that he will be lynched today. In addition, your case on him is just kinda bad.
Yeah, the case on you is bad too. But, making a bad case in turn on one of your voters is only going to make more people vote you, because they will find more reasons in your bad case to vote you.
This is why I said that you are currently ruining my town read on you.
EPT
). Emotions control the way we perceive the information given to us, and based on that information (molded and sculptured by our emotions) we build our own logic. What makes your post different from mine is that your appeal was done at the correct timing, where as mine was not. You are very good at this game. I will strive to play like you. However, that was the biggest mafia indicator out of all the posts that you have made, and there are many such posts that point at you being mafia.
