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Nisani201
United States1400 Posts
I have no idea who I'm going to vote for at this moment. I've been talking to people in PM's and I'm slowly gaining some more information. WBG has been a huge help throughout all of this. I like the case against risk.nuke, but the problem is that we are all guilty of misreads. It's a bit unfair to pinpoint it all on him. | ||
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Kenpachi
United States9908 Posts
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Kenpachi
United States9908 Posts
forgot about this. No, this was based on my intuition | ||
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wherebugsgo
Japan10647 Posts
wherebugsgo sinani risk.nuke xtfftc sevryn In addition to these thoughts please provide your 3 most likely scum and whoever your town reads happen to be. | ||
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wherebugsgo
Japan10647 Posts
I have a case coming up in an hour or so. We have less than 16 hours left to lynch and we have almost nothing. No one seems to want to do anything. How are we going to find scum if there aren't people pressuring and trying to find/consolidate information? This is pathetic. I will not be around for the majority of tomorrow morning. I'm going to sleep after I post this upcoming case, and then I will expect you all to vote accordingly. I will be here for the penultimate 3 hours (but not the last hour) before lynch. I have class from 8-12 PST tomorrow morning and 14-15 PST basically. | ||
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wherebugsgo
Japan10647 Posts
The day has come. Today, we lynch scum. And no, I do not think it is risk.nuke. Look at how easy this lynch is. No one is defending the poor guy. He's a new player. He's willing to PM. He's scummy as hell, but I don't think he's actually mafia. In my talk with him earlier today he said some weird things but in looking at how other things have played out in this game I don't think he's actually scum. So, then, who is scum? 95%+ scum: sinani206 sevryn Sinani made a fatal mistake today. It was this post: On October 05 2011 10:34 sinani206 wrote: dropbear is scummy ##Vote: DropBear He has literally done nothing all game. He has had no reads, no intentions of providing reads, no use whatsoever. There's the small chance he isn't scum, but that chance is so small and the possibility is so unlikely that I frankly don't give a shit. This single post by sinani linked him to sevryn. So far all game, sinani has not done anything but just slip by undetected. Day 1 he voted Curu, and I don't believe anyone noticed (I didn't notice until I started looking at the top 6 scum targets of today) at all. Now he's voting DB? His vote was #3 on Incog at the time on day 2, perfect time for a mafia to step in and vote a townie. By comparison, other people I find extremely scummy (Forumite, sevryn) also bandwagoned; Forumite joined both the Palmar and Incog lynches really late and sevryn blindly hopped on the Curu wagon AFTER the case was destroyed by Mig. On day 1 sevryn voted NC instead of Palmar. By vote analysis alone all three of these guys fit as a scumteam. There exist two other anomalies in the voting pattern, namely NC (replaced by xtfftc) and risk.nuke, but both of these can potentially be explained in other ways. Besides, we have time to consider them after we lynch sinani. So, let's ignore them for now. (this is, after all, sinani's turn to get attention) Sevryn link to Sinani Incoming is a spoilered IRC log of a conversation I had with Sevryn earlier this afternoon. I had a conversation with him last night as well but unfortunately my browser crashed before I had the foresight to save that one. Not like that really matters though, since I got all I wanted out of Sevryn in this log. + Show Spoiler [sevrynlog] + [16:01] <wherebugsgo> yo [16:01] <wherebugsgo> let's talk a little [16:01] <sevryn> hey [16:01] <sevryn> i concur [16:01] <wherebugsgo> alright [16:01] <wherebugsgo> who would you like to lynch today? [16:02] <sevryn> tbh i havnt been following the thread that closely [16:02] <sevryn> give me a few? [16:02] <sevryn> ive been doing a minecraft thing like all day [16:03] <sevryn> tho [16:03] <sevryn> i dont like dropbear [16:03] <sevryn> hes tunneling me and then going super lurke [16:03] <wherebugsgo> okay [16:03] <sevryn> which is kinda hypocritical of me to call someone a lurker [16:03] <wherebugsgo> will you read the last few pages and stuff you've missed [16:03] <sevryn> because ive been afk alot [16:03] <sevryn> yea i am now [16:03] <wherebugsgo> and then come back to me [16:03] <wherebugsgo> in lik [16:03] <wherebugsgo> 20 minutes? [16:03] <wherebugsgo> is that enough? [16:03] <sevryn> should be [16:04] <sevryn> oh holy shit [16:04] <sevryn> curu was VT ugh that makes xtffc look bad [16:05] <wherebugsgo> mmhmm [16:21] <sevryn> xtff dropbear risknuke [16:21] <sevryn> are my biggest scum reads [16:21] <wherebugsgo> okay, why [16:21] <wherebugsgo> for each [16:22] <sevryn> Risknuke because he hasn't done like anything and everynow and then he will pop up [16:22] <sevryn> have you talked to him at all? [16:22] <wherebugsgo> yeah I have [16:22] <wherebugsgo> I talked to him a few hours ago [16:22] <sevryn> did he contribute anything? [16:23] <wherebugsgo> not much no [16:23] <wherebugsgo> it's his first game though [16:23] <sevryn> you cant read to much into that imo [16:23] <wherebugsgo> as in? [16:24] <sevryn> as in one might use the excuse of inexperiance to explain scummy behaivor [16:24] <sevryn> anyway [16:24] <sevryn> dropbear [16:24] <sevryn> is super duper tunneling but he never really made a case [16:25] <sevryn> like he wants to look like hes scum hunting but he just accuses me of beings scum and goes away [16:25] <sevryn> idk if you were on irc the other night when i talked to him [16:25] <sevryn> someone might have the log [16:25] <sevryn> well overseer should [16:25] <wherebugsgo> okay [16:25] <sevryn> and then xtffc as GM replacement [16:26] <wherebugsgo> okay [16:26] <sevryn> what are you reads? [16:26] <wherebugsgo> what do you think of Forumite and sinani? [16:26] <sevryn> sinani is in this game? [16:26] <wherebugsgo> yes [16:26] <sevryn> lol [16:27] <sevryn> how many posts has he made? [16:27] <wherebugsgo> I dunno, not more than 10 I don't think [16:27] <sevryn> do you know if hes been active in pm land? [16:27] <sevryn> i havnt talked to him [16:27] <wherebugsgo> okay I just counted he's posted 17 posts [16:27] <wherebugsgo> and he's claimed mute [16:27] <wherebugsgo> so no [16:28] <sevryn> but since we have so few people we might want to start lynching lurkers somewhat also have you thought about my scum are the ones that arnt mute theory? [16:28] <wherebugsgo> I've considered it [16:28] <wherebugsgo> but who does that leave? [16:29] <wherebugsgo> why does muteness correlate with alignment? [16:29] <sevryn> because mafia are the only ones that can mute people [16:29] <sevryn> o wait [16:29] <sevryn> nvm [16:29] <sevryn> just remmeber its temporary [16:29] <sevryn> so thats irrelavant [16:29] <sevryn> like i said [16:30] <sevryn> havnt looked at the game in a while [16:30] <wherebugsgo> uhhh [16:30] <wherebugsgo> lol [16:31] <sevryn> you remember when we talked about that? [16:31] <sevryn> anyway what are you reads [16:31] <sevryn> you didnt answer me [16:31] <wherebugsgo> yeah I recall but honestly I don't think it has anything to do with anything [16:31] <wherebugsgo> you didn't say anything about Forumite [16:32] <wherebugsgo> Forumite first [16:32] <wherebugsgo> then we'll get to my reads [16:32] <sevryn> null read on him i havnt filter him or anything [16:32] <sevryn> but nothing really stands out [16:32] <wherebugsgo> really? [16:32] <wherebugsgo> okay [16:33] <wherebugsgo> I think risk is scum [16:33] <wherebugsgo> out of the other five [16:33] <wherebugsgo> who I've listed [16:33] <sevryn> reasons on risk? [16:33] <wherebugsgo> what I've talked to him in PMs [16:33] <wherebugsgo> and what he's said in thread [16:33] <wherebugsgo> in the thread he keeps randomly FoSing people [16:33] <wherebugsgo> who flip town [16:33] <wherebugsgo> only one who hasn't died yet is me [16:33] <wherebugsgo> lol [16:34] <sevryn> what do you think of jcarl? [16:34] <wherebugsgo> kinda null on jcarl, why? [16:34] <wherebugsgo> you think he's scum? [16:35] <sevryn> i dont have a read on him but kenpachi does wondering if you know why [16:35] <wherebugsgo> no, I don't actually [16:49] <sevryn> well im off for the night peace Let's summarize this IRC log with Sevryn, and completely ignore the derp slips that, for any other player, would be serious offenses (such as not reading the thread) 1. Sevryn starts out with saying he doesn't like Dropbear. Dropbear to me at the time was a null read, but with a good sequence of events coupled with the information I have from Mig and Curu I have extremely good reasons to believe DropBear is town. Sinani's derp vote with no reasoning on DB strongly suggests to me that they've been trying to push him as scum and have been taking advantage of his inactivity in order to try for a mislynch. Well, DB is NOT scum and he is one of my strongest town reads in the game currently. I just got done speaking with him on IRC and what he told me matches perfectly with the information I have from Curu and Mig. If you desire to know this information please PM me or let me know in the thread so I can tell you why DB is town. 2. Sevryn lists risk.nuke among the players he finds scummy for reasons that could easily be applied to himself and sinani as well. In fact, sinani is a worse offender IMO than risk.nuke, seeing as sinani is not a new player and sinani also has shown no desire to actually contribute. On the other hand, risk.nuke talked to me a while on skype. Sinani? Ignored literally everything in the thread. Sevryn then keeps pushing risk.nuke when I say he's a new player, saying "well you can't look into that too much." 3. This quote: [16:26] <sevryn> what are you reads? [16:26] <wherebugsgo> what do you think of Forumite and sinani? [16:26] <sevryn> sinani is in this game? [16:26] <wherebugsgo> yes [16:26] <sevryn> lol [16:27] <sevryn> how many posts has he made? [16:27] <wherebugsgo> I dunno, not more than 10 I don't think [16:27] <sevryn> do you know if hes been active in pm land? [16:27] <sevryn> i havnt talked to him [16:27] <wherebugsgo> okay I just counted he's posted 17 posts [16:27] <wherebugsgo> and he's claimed mute [16:27] <wherebugsgo> so no [16:28] <sevryn> but since we have so few people we might want to start lynching lurkers somewhat also have you thought about my scum are the ones that arnt mute theory? [16:28] <wherebugsgo> I've considered it [16:28] <wherebugsgo> but who does that leave? [16:29] <wherebugsgo> why does muteness correlate with alignment? [16:29] <sevryn> because mafia are the only ones that can mute people [16:29] <sevryn> o wait [16:29] <sevryn> nvm [16:29] <sevryn> just remmeber its temporary [16:29] <sevryn> so thats irrelavant [16:29] <sevryn> like i said [16:30] <sevryn> havnt looked at the game in a while As soon as I mention sinani, sevryn goes, "he's in this game?" If sevryn truly cared about lynching lurkers or non contributing townies then I'm sure he would've realized that sinani has been the biggest culprit of this all game long. He then asks me if he's been active in PMs, something that I sworn I could've talked to him about the other day in IRC, but nonetheless a retarded question since it can be answered in the thread. However, that's not the worst part. When I confirm that sinani is mute, sevryn immediately defends all mute players from suspicion (and thus soft defends both sinani and forumite) by saying that mutes cannot be mafia. When I ask how muteness correlates with alignment I get no answer. 4. Finally, I ask him about Forumite as I figure I'm not getting anything new from this guy. What does Sevryn say on Forumite? [16:32] <wherebugsgo> Forumite first [16:32] <wherebugsgo> then we'll get to my reads [16:32] <sevryn> null read on him i havnt filter him or anything [16:32] <sevryn> but nothing really stands out [16:32] <wherebugsgo> really? Yeah, I don't think you get away with soft-defending two of the scummiest people in the game that easily. Now, you all might ask me why it is that I advocate sinani's lynch over sevryn's, when most of the damning evidence actually comes from sevryn and not anything that sinani has done. Well, it's primarily because of two reasons: Why Sinani and not Sevryn? 1. Of all the town reads I have in this game, every single one considers sinani to be scum or very scummy. Most others hold a little more doubt about Sevryn. (and this may be due to DB's inactivity throwing them off, or other reasons as well) 2. I myself hold a tiny bit of doubt about Sevryn because of his scummy town play. Many of the things he said in IRC (such as not reading the thread or Forumite's filters) can be explained by careless town play. However, IMO this doubt will always exist with such a player, so we should not rule out sevryn as scum in the one in a billion chance sinani flips town. Personally I wish we had a double lynch, but we don't, so the best we can do is lynch sinani, IMO. This leaves the question somewhat unanswered of, who is that third scum? IMO it's Forumite, as I explained earlier. Sevryn's behavior regarding the two players would certainly implicate them. On its own, Forumite's play is also incredibly scummy. He's voted supersoft today (wtf?) instead of voting me, his #1 scumread, or any of the other possible lurkers in town. He could've voted sinani (the obvious choice if you're trying to vote a lurker, IMO) or DB, or sevryn, or risk.nuke, or xt. Instead, he voted supersoft, something I really don't understand. So far all of Forumite's reads have been town (he leaned Curu day 1 over Palmar until he got so much attention he flipped) and indeed after Palmar got lynched he tried making me look scummy by saying I defended Palmar when Forumite was doing much more soft defending than me. I had at least made my opinion clear that I found the Palmar lynch weird. Forumite simply kept soft defending Palmar by suspecting Curu more, and just continually dodging Curu's attacks. The hypocrisy in him suspecting me for defending Palmar has not been forgotten. In the wildly unusual (IMO) case that any of these three scum is not, in fact, scum, I would suggest we look at risk.nuke and xt again. I've given xtfftc leeway today, but I expect him to come in before lynch today and establish himself as a townie and give us scum reads. If he can't do that then he should be lynched after sinani and sevryn have been dealt with. I will be back periodically to log dump and whatnot, though I don't think that'll be necessary as I have already dispersed my logs among the townies. I don't believe there is a scum vig so I'm not afraid of dying before the night phase. If there is, though, I assume that you guys will publicize my logs in my stead. You know who you are. without further ado, ##unvote risk.nuke ##vote sinani206 | ||
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Forumite
Sweden3280 Posts
On October 05 2011 17:09 wherebugsgo wrote: On its own, Forumite's play is also incredibly scummy. He's voted supersoft today (wtf?) instead of voting me, his #1 scumread, or any of the other possible lurkers in town. He could've voted sinani (the obvious choice if you're trying to vote a lurker, IMO) or DB, or sevryn, or risk.nuke, or xt. Instead, he voted supersoft, something I really don't understand. How do you know who I think is the scummiest player? Sure, you looked really bad to me earlier during Night 1, but having seen too many players who look scummy flip as Townies, I´ve been forced to reexamine my reads. It´s not something I felt like sharing at the time in case it drew even more attention to Mig, but I got a PM from him saying he thought you were very much Town, tntked said so in the thread, a statement that I could trust once he flipped green. They based it on your reaction Night 1, and while it´s not proof, two good players have gotten a strong Town-read from you, and that´s enough for me, for now. As for Sinani, I´ve been suspicious of him for a while. As he´s up for a lynch I might as well drop my read, and it´s that he definetly has some kind of role, this isn´t the sinani I remember, but which role can be debated, he could be scum, or blue, but he´s definetly not green. We´ve lost our most trusted Town-players, so I guess WBG will have to do. Send Sinani a PM where you ask him to roleclaim using codes, different for each blue role. See if you can trust his claim, and his nightactions. If he is a Blue role and we still lynch him, then talking to him in PMs will at least allow you to hear which nightactions he´s done, and the result, which will help later on. | ||
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supersoft
Germany3729 Posts
i want your PMs right now. ##vote: sevryn if you are town, help us and defend yourself. if we don't lynch you we lynch xtfftc. IF YOU DISAGREE WITH ME, DO PM ME AND I'LL CONVINCE YOU. | ||
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xtfftc
United Kingdom2343 Posts
On October 05 2011 20:42 supersoft wrote: if we don't lynch you we lynch xtfftc. Ah, I remember that tune! Would anyone bother joining #loonybin? It's just me and Kenpachi in there and he's snoring. | ||
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Forumite
Sweden3280 Posts
On October 05 2011 20:42 supersoft wrote: sevryn i want everything you got, posted in the thread. i don't want to hear shit like this anymor: "aah i don't want scum to know my connections bla bla bla" i want your PMs right now. ##vote: sevryn if you are town, help us and defend yourself. if we don't lynch you we lynch xtfftc. IF YOU DISAGREE WITH ME, DO PM ME AND I'LL CONVINCE YOU. Incog flipped Town, does that shake your theory about NC/xtfftc any, or does it fit your suspicions? | ||
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supersoft
Germany3729 Posts
On October 05 2011 21:38 Forumite wrote: Incog flipped Town, does that shake your theory about NC/xtfftc any, or does it fit your suspicions? doesn't shake anything regarding the two players. | ||
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supersoft
Germany3729 Posts
On October 05 2011 21:38 Forumite wrote: Incog flipped Town, does that shake your theory about NC/xtfftc any, or does it fit your suspicions? moreover, i want you to ##aim: sevryn | ||
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Forumite
Sweden3280 Posts
I´d like you to answer my question first. | ||
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Forumite
Sweden3280 Posts
On October 05 2011 22:26 supersoft wrote: Ah, missed this post. doesn't shake anything regarding the two players. In that case, I assume this still applies too, right? You still think, despite Incogs flip, that either NC/xtfftc or WBG is scum? On October 02 2011 22:41 supersoft wrote: nisani201 doesn't have two votes ^_^ ##vote: NotChezinu btw. I favour him over incognito. One of the three is scum: wbg, incognito and NotChezinu. | ||
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Erandorr
2283 Posts
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supersoft
Germany3729 Posts
forumite doesnt want to shoot his buddy! | ||
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Erandorr
2283 Posts
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Forumite
Sweden3280 Posts
On October 05 2011 23:31 supersoft wrote: lol i catched two reds here! forumite doesnt want to shoot his buddy! Just answer the question. Are you still basing your scumreads on the crappy Curu-case from yesterday? | ||
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supersoft
Germany3729 Posts
On October 05 2011 23:40 Forumite wrote: Just answer the question. Are you still basing your scumreads on the crappy Curu-case from yesterday? DONT TRY TO DISTRACT HERE!!! GO AIM SEVRYN!!! | ||
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Erandorr
2283 Posts
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