Hurricane Irene

Hurricane Irene is now a tropical storm (the first to make landfall in NYC since 1893) that continues to work its way north in New England before reaching Canada. NOAA reports its maxed sustained winds at 45 mph, with some higher gusts, as of 8 PM Sunday evening. Irene finally has picked up speed, heading NNE at 26 mph (after 2 days of moving between 13-16 mph). After lashing North Carolina and Virginia yesterday, Irene made a second landfall in southern New Jersey, near Little Egg Inlet, at around 5:35 AM Sunday morning. Irene landed near Long Beach on Long Island at around 10 AM on Sunday. The storm cell is not collapsing, or falling apart, but transitioning into a hybrid low pressure system that will still pack tropical storm force winds.

The death toll from Irene stands at around 20 people so far, with casualties reported from at least six states.

Flooding is widespread in some coastal areas but has been more severe inland, with swollen rivers inundating towns in VA, PA, NJ, NY, CT, and VT. Between 10-14 inches of rain fell in parts of North Carolina, with similar totals likely to have hit New Jersey as well. Hopefully, many of the 2.3 million residents who were issued mandatory evacuation orders heeded them. Philadelphia is currently suffering from some severe flooding, with water as high as 15 ft in certain areas, approaching its all-time record of 17 ft in 1869. Vermont is also suffering from serious flooding along riverbanks.

Millions of people have lost power in the tristate area - more than 500k in Long Island according to LIPA, almost 1 million in New Jersey according to PSE&G, over 70K in NYC and ~50k in Westchester according to ConEd, and almost 700k in Connecticut according to CL&P. No power has been lost in Manhattan, again according to conEd. Statewide in New York, 750k total people are in the dark. Around 3 million other residents are without power from states including North Carolina, Virginia, Delaware, Maryland, Pennsylvania, and into New Jersey, bringing the total so far to over 4 million Americans. Power in New Jersey could take 5-7 days to restore. In Philadelphia, 21k residents were without power Sunday afternoon, with another 300k in the surrounding SE PA area. 800k Maryland residents are also currently without power as of Sunday. Tens of thousands have lost power in Rhode Island, and outages have occurred in Vermont as well with all the flooding.

The evacuation order for NYC was lifted at 3 PM on Sunday, with the mayor urging people to return at 6 PM. The MTA does not appear to have suffered serious damage to its underwater tunnels and is set to reopen at 6 AM on Monday morning, according to the AP. Government offices and financial markets will open on Monday. Airports in the tristate area are also set to reopen Monday.

New York City is trying out crowd-sourcing to let residents report damage. Feel free to do so here -
NYC Severe Weather

conEdison's interactive map for power outages so far - ConEd Outage Info

Also today: a 2.9 earthquake stuck New York state near Altamont. Governor Cuomo has ordered officials to assess any infrastructure damage in the area.

deeshoo's live report from the Upper West Side of Manhattan -

From The Weather Channel -


Hurricane Irene, a Category 1 hurricane, landed during the 7 AM hour EDT in North Carolina, close to Cape Lookout. The eye is expected to reach New York City by Sunday morning, with tropical storm winds arriving Saturday night, as it heads north with a current speed of ~16 mph. Heavy rains are being reported along with strong storm surges and gusts higher than its Category 1 status, as high as 115 mph along the coast. Rainfall totals of 6-8 inches are expected from the Chesapeake Bay, north along the NJ-PA border, north to Vermont, and all points east along the coast with 8-10 inches possible for the Delaware River Bay, eastern Chesapeake Bay, and central New Jersey. The storm's maximum sustained winds are ~80 mph according to CNN at the moment, but its danger has always been more due to its size and slow movement speed (causing widespread rain, wind, and storm surges) rather than the particularly strong winds that define Category 2 and above hurricanes. After suffering a partial eye wall replacement, Irene lost some of its potency and is not expected to strengthen again even as it passes over water instead of land.

Tornado watches have been going off from North Carolina north to southern New York. Current areas with tornado watches include many central and eastern counties in New Jersey as well as New York, Long Island, and Westchester and Rockland counties north of the city. North Carolina Emergency Management reports that at least 3 tornadoes have touched down in southeastern NC. Another tornado made landfall near Virginia Beach as well this morning. And tonight, a tornado was reported to have landed in Lewes, Delaware, according to the DE governor. Other tornadoes might have landed in Maryland and New Jersey already as well.

Power has been knocked out for over 2 million residents of Virginia and over 1 million in North Carolina so far. Consolidated Edison in NYC has announced that it might shut down power facilities in low-lying areas around the tristate area if salt water threatens to flood the grid. NYC officials have announced that Manhattan, below Chambers St, might lose power if ConEd determines that the flooding there is severe enough.

There have been at least 9 deaths reported so far with 4 casualties in NC. A surfer off a VA beach has been killed, a young boy was crushed when his room was struck by a falling tree, and at least 2 other Virginians have perished so far. Blood bank shortages are already expected for states including and north of North Carolina.

According to the New York Times -
FEMA: 2/3 of fleet along eastern coast; 18 disaster-response teams as well.
The Coast Guard: more than 20 rescue helicopters and reconnaissance planes ready to take off.
The Defense Department: 18 more helicopters set aside for response.
The National Guard: about 101,000 members available to respond.
The American Red Cross: more than 200 emergency response vehicles and tens of thousands of ready-to-eat meals in areas due to be hit by the storm.

Also from The Weather Channel is this - formerly self-updated - image of Irene's potential paths and forecast wind speeds -

I am beginning to appreciate Hurricane Irene's potential for causing widespread damage and destruction across the eastern seaboard of the United States. As of now, Irene is forecasted to plod along the coast after it smashes into the Outer Banks of NC. It is classified as a large and powerful Category 1 hurricane as of Saturday morning, expected to diminish to a tropical storm status in after hitting New York City. Irene's slow speed of ~14 mph so far is well below the usual 30 mph a storm of this size normally has, increasing the potential for flooding, property damage, and other inconveniences. Hurricane Irene's tropical storm-force wind field was already larger than Hurricane Katrina's in 2005 on Friday. According to the NY Times, over 55 million people could be affected in the eastern United States. The Weather Channel has added an 'extreme' threat level category for the storm stretching from NC into New England. Ripped from its website -

- Computer models are currently trending toward a forecast solution of rare potency for portions of the Northeast.
- Irene will be a serious and multi-hazard threat for the major metropolitan areas of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. This includes Norfolk, Washington, D.C., Baltimore, Philadelphia, New York City, Hartford, and Boston. This hurricane has the potential to produce flooding rains, high winds, downed trees (on houses, cars, power lines) and widespread power outages. Significant impacts along the immediate coast include high waves, surge and beach erosion.
- For North Carolina, the main impacts of damaging winds and storm surge flooding will be confined to the far eastern portions of the state. In addition to the Outer Banks, this potentially includes Morehead City and Atlantic Beach.
- Timing: Irene will make its closest approach to North Carolina late Friday night through Saturday. Northeast U.S. impacts would be Saturday night through early Monday.

Source: TWC Hurricane Irene Storm Coverage

Mandatory evacuations have been issued up and down the eastern coast of the nation - over 2.3 million residents so far, according to the AP. Connecticut, Delaware, Maine Maryland, Massachusetts, New Jersey, New York, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island and Virginia have issued states of emergency ahead of the storm with more states to do the same, potentially, as the weekend progresses. Hurricane warnings have been issued by the National Weather Service for NC, VA, MD, DE, and NJ; hurricane watches have been issued for NY, CT, RI, and MA. The US Naval Station at Norfolk has ordered ships out to sea to better ride out the storm than at harbor. Governor Andrew Cuomo of NY has announced that the MTA will shut down entirely as of noon on Saturday, along with other regional commuter transit systems. Amtrak has cancelled train service from Friday - Sunday south of Washington, DC. The dedication ceremony for the new Rev. The Massachusetts Bay Transportation Authority has suspended all service for Sunday. Martin Luther King Jr. Memorial along the National Park Mall in Washington, DC, has been postponed indefinitely after originally being scheduled for Sunday. Construction sites have been ordered to stop in the tristate area, with inspectors checking that heavy equipment is secured, and work on naval ships in Virginia has also been suspended.

JFK International Airport, LaGuardia Airport, and Newark Liberty International Airport have stopped receiving arriving flights as of noon Saturday and closed down. JetBlue, United and other airlines have wiped out over thousands of flights for this weekend alone. Check with any airline you or others might be using to see if rescheduling is possible. Expect delays in air travel throughout the nation, to varying degrees, due to grounding of planes and the fact that the east coast is the most heavily trafficked section.

All in all, this will be a serious meteorological event for the eastern seaboard of the US. Property damage has already been estimated to top $1 BN when all is said and done. The fact that it will likely be, as of now, a tropical storm by the time it reaches New Jersey and NYC will still mean sustained winds and rain that the area has not seen for many years. The last major hurricane this far north was in 1944 but much farther east, out to sea in the Atlantic. With the eye of the storm potentially crawling up the NJ shore, the area may not be as lucky this time around. The shutdown of the entire MTA in New York as of noon on Saturday is also unprecedented, but completely necessary. The 39 mph threshold for winds that the service cannot operate adequately or safely seems low, but then again this could be a once-in-a-century(lifetime) occurrence.

Hopefully, officials will have over-prepared and the storm will not be as dire as forecasts indicate. I wish anyone potentially affected the best of luck and encourage people to remember those in the most need during such, potentially, trying times.