Pool Competition Preview
By: tree.hugger
Group A
We're all doomed.
We're all doomed.
Apparently, it wasn't enough to put the three of the most skilled foreign BW players of all time in the same MLG Columbus group. Wasn't hard enough. What MLG needed apparently was to ensure a group so incredibly strong that there wouldn't be a need to watch anything else. Consider that the only player in this group who is not a current, past, or guaranteed future GSL player is... the odds on Korean favorite to win the tournament.
Holy check?
None of these players need any introduction, but we'll do it anyway. MvPDongRaeGu is making perhaps the most anticipated foreign scene appearance in Sc2's young history. Not only do a clear plurality of fans believe he will win the tournament, but he is the sentimental favorite, and an MLG win will catapult him directly into the Code S slot he clearly deserves. But the path to the big show runs through Liquid`HuK, the recent Dreamhack and Homestory Cup double champion and an established Code S player in his own right. Then there's Dignitas.NaNiwa who is already headed to Korea by way of MLG, and has recently vowed to "get out of this period of mediocre second and third places at tournaments". These three players are all favorites to win the tournament.
Rounding out this group are Liquid`HayprO and Liquid`TLO, two players who have likely never been such underdogs in a group before. Of the two, HayprO has a serious chance to play spoiler, while TLO's recent injury makes him a sentimental favorite, but not a betting one. Oh yeah, and then there's the mystery candidate, the top finisher from an absurdly stacked Open bracket. There's no reason to doubt that even more GSL talent will make this a group battle for the ages.
Prediction: With MLG's forgiving seeding structure, the only place really worth having is first. Each of the matches between this group's 'Big Three' has the potential to decide the standings. DRG's aggressive and opportunistic ZvP will play well against NaNiwa, but not against HuK. However, NaNiwa could easily undo the damage by beating HuK's vulnerable PvP, leaving a group winner to be decided by differential, or failing that, a FFA wrestling match on the mainstage. Don't count out HayprO playing spoiler here, but he seems an unlikely choice to top the group. Of the open bracket players, Alicia would certainly do the most damage, but to win the group would mean solving a lot of issues, especially in PvZ. I honestly can't say I would favor him against anyone except TLO.
Group B
Fan wars.
Fan wars.
If you're looking for a build order, stick to watching Group A. If you're looking for an argument, Group B is your ticket to internet acrimony. The players in this group don't just have talent on their side, most of them also have a legion of ravenous fanboys ready to spin the game results faster than a dancing zergling.
Of course, the group is headlined by the crown prince of controversy, EGIdrA, who is returning to MLG like The Beatles to Abbey Road. It is on the MLG stage that IdrA both shines, and lovingly crafts ESPORTS memories with the frequency of hallmark cards. Joining IdrA on the battlefield is his teammate and fellow holder-of-strong-options, EGiNcontroL who will be looking to repeat his Dallas performance, and not his Columbus one. Both EG'ers are coming out of a team bivouac in the arid expanses of Arizona, which should sharpen their play just in time for this weekend. The Korean in the group is not just any Korean, but the Emperor himself, SlayerS_BoxeR. This is his second trip to Southern California in the past month, having just competed in the NASL finals. The attraction at MLG will be his battle with IdrA, which is the first in-person meeting of a storied relationship. The first Boxer SC2 game seen by the foreign community was against IdrA, and there was a phony controversy over their NASL match. But most importantly, it was Boxer's ingame chat phonetic error that bestowed upon the Gracken the most famous of nicknames.
In this group of big names and famous personalities, Liquid`Sheth is the straight man of the group. Universally regarded as a nice guy, Sheth recently returned from a Korean trip that yielded mixed results. Officially picked up by Liquid as of several hours ago, Sheth will be making his debut with less practice and preparation than normal, but with some serious positive vibes. Finally, Dignitas.SjoW is not nearly as well known among the NA community. While a strong player who initially made some waves with unorthodox views on scouting, SjoW's play has drifted into the mainstream and hasn't yielded big results recently.
Prediction: This is probably the most open race for first place in MLG, mainly because Boxer is not the prohibitive favorite that his fellow countrymen are. Indeed, IdrA is the most likely winner of the group, but won't do it cleanly. A group win by Incontrol, Sheth or Sjow would be considered a heavy upset, but each are capable enough players to trip up someone else. Unlike the other groups, the main question for Group B is the identity of the open bracket player. A terran player especially could do it, neither of this group's players is particularly comfortable in that match-up. If GanZi or Rain make their way into this group, they could make a serious impact.
Group C
Dark horses.
Dark horses.
Group C is by no means a cakewalk, yet it contains a stable of players who haven't quite gotten their due for this MLG. Yet holding the reigning champion and some of the most consistent players in the scene isn't something to ignore, and by the closing rounds of the tournament, it wouldn't be surprising to see a couple representatives from this group still standing.
The first person who can't be counted out is SlayerS_MMA, who won MLG Columbus in memorable fashion, but hasn't gotten as much hype as his countrymen on the return trip. Part of that is likely due to his untimely loss to Puzzle in Code A which highlighted his ongoing struggle with TvP.But it's worth remembering that Puzzle eventually won Code A, and that MMA easily dispatched KiWiKaKi in the last MLG. He returns to MLG under the radar again, but no less of a favorite. The most decorated foreigner in this group is Liquid`Ret who can usually coast to a respectable finish on talent alone. Whether or not he can challenge the front-runners in this tournament is another question entirely. When they played in Code A, Ret was undone by illness, but still managed to give extremely close games. MMA has improved tremendously since.
RGNSLush is in the familiar position of MLG underdog. Yet he is one of MLG's most consistent top performers, culminating in a stunning 5th in Columbus. This MLG is his first with Team Reign. His former teammate, coL.Drewbie is another underdog who is capable of springing the occasional surprise, although his Columbus was a disappointment. For both of these players, it'll be interesting to see how their post-ROOT teams have affected their play. By contrast, the final seeded player in the group is a model of consistency. I have a habit of underestimating aTn.Socke, and I repeated my error with Dreamhack Summer. This time, the German protoss has a favorable group, and has been playing well recently.
Prediction: MMA demolished his MLG group in Columbus, and should not have any serious difficulties here. His primary threats are Socke and the open bracket player, but it remains hard to see how that would actually occur, or who would have the ability to do it. As has been mentioned before, Alicia and GanZi are dangerous, but MMA is better than both. Socke seems to have a great group otherwise, and should come out in a great position for the knockout rounds.
Group D
Something to Prove.
Something to Prove.
The David to Group A's Goliath, Group D is like that team in that sports movie that you watched once. You know, the team with all the scrappy kids who got cut from the rich team. Yeah, that one. Everyone in this group has had recent struggles, and naturally, they'll have to work them out together. In that sports movie, the scrappy team wins the championship, and learns the value of perseverance. Can that happen here?
The most successful player in this group over the past month has been RGNKiWiKaKi, but his triumphs have come in Poker, and not Sc2. After five days in the World Series of Poker, KiWi netted a cool 40k, but can that haul make up for five days of lost practice time? Because that's what's really important here. The mercurial
IMMVP is the Korean invite to the group. I have this debate with Waxangel about whether or not MVP is overrated (I say yea). There is no debate though that his results in GSL July were underwhelming. He'll be hoping that a vacation stateside and some foreigner bashing is just what he needs to re-energize his Sc2 fortunes. Also returning from Korea is FXOmOoNan who seemed too overcome by nerves in the GSTL spotlight to live up to his potential. However, it's impossible to discount a month of intensive training on the Korean server and on more familiar ground mOoNan has a great chance to make a surprising run.
Another player coming to MLG after some special training is EGMachine. This may be his last chance to hold onto a seed he almost entirely earned at MLG Dallas 2010. Since that unlikely fourth place finish, Machine has had real difficulty achieving results, despite being invited to a large portfolio of events. EG is betting that their pre-MLG boot camp was enough to turn things around. The final invited player to the group is the one with the best results in the past few months. But just because Dignitas.SeleCT has been performing up to his usual high standards doesn't mean that he comes into MLG baggage free. SeleCT's otherwise stellar career has lacked the kind of marquee win that defines so many other top players. His MLG Columbus showing was a surprisingly poor performance, going 0-5 in his group. As the difficulty goes up each MLG, so too do the potential rewards. A deep run here would bring SeleCT back into the forefront of the foreign scene's best players.
Prediction: MVP is the favorite in this group, and doesn't seem to have a challenger at first glance. But things might not be all kittens and butterflies for the former GSL champion. SeleCT, who has frequently been cited by Koreans as one of the foreign scene's better players is not to be underestimated. And my super sleeper pick for a deep run in the tournament, mOoNan, is coming to MLG after a month of Korean competition as well. Remember that QXC beat the stuffing out of MVP in the IM terran's last major appearance. MVP should take this group, but there are more pitfalls than first appear.
The ESPORTS Prospectus
By: Primadog
The design goal of the ESPORTS Prospectus (Anaheim worksheet) series is to find an objective algorithm that can reliably predict group-stage results of major StarCraft 2 tournaments (for more information about the mathematics involved, click here).
Actual map and set results are inherently difficult to predict and highly variable (part of StarCraft's nature as a sport). Experiments have shown that, by collating group stage result, such variance can be significantly reduced and reliable projections may be possible. The ESPORTS Prospectus algorithm is designed to hit 70% accuracy in group records, map results, and standings without any subjective inputs.
The following run of the MLG Anaheim player pool utilizes the TLPD players' detailed Elo (standard and racial, pulled 6:00PM PDT July 28th, 2011) as the only input variables and projects the following final results:
Group A
- HuK 5-0 (9-2)
- NaNiwa 4-1 (8-3)
- DongRaeGu 3-2 (6-6)
- OSeed #1 3-2 (6-6)
- HayprO 1-4 (2-9)
- TLO 0-5 (2-9)
Group B
- IdrA 4-1 (9-3)
- OSeed #2 3-2 (7-5)
- Sheth 3-2 (7-5)
- BoxeR 2-3 (6-6)
- SjoW 2-3 (5-6)
- iNcontroL 0-5 (2-10)
Group C
Group D
- SeleCT 4-1 (8-4)
- MVP 3-2 (8-4)
- OSeed #4 3-2 (7-5)
- KiWiKaKi 3-2 (7-5)
- mOoNan 1-4 (4-8)
- Machine 0-5 (2-9)
Projections with subjective variables
The following is a preliminary attempt to introduce subjective variables to capture information not available the TLPD that may influence player performance. It is uncertain whether or not this information will influence projection accuracy, so take the following information with a grain of salt.
+ Show Spoiler [Projections with subjective variables] +
The author only adds subjectives conservatively and only when absolutely necessary:
Subjective variable list
Group A
Group B
Group C
Group D
- +35 - Training
- +35~70 - Uncertainly, mostly for players with low TLPD game-count
- -35 - Out of practice penalty
- +35 - Motivation
- -35 - Fatigue
Subjective variable list
- HayprO +70 TM
- TLO +70 TM
- DonRaeGu +70 UMF
- iNcontroL +70 TM
- Ret +35 M
- KiWiKaKi -35 O
- Machine +35 T
- Open Winners - estimated based on likely winner skill level
List of likely open competitors
ID Team ELO Peak vsT Peak vsZ Peak vsP Peak
WhiteRa Tt 2196 2305 2145 2240 2107 2206 2055 2055
meRz Dig 2133 2182 2107 2119 2065 2075 1971 2055
Jinro Liquid` 2092 2191 2015 2047 2076 2122 2062 2151
Fenix Fnatic 2132 2274 2179 2237 2040 2158 2083 2151
TT1 Fnatic 2143 2203 2091 2173 2019 2162 2142 2142
Alicia SlayerS 2135 2183 2079 2099 2033 2077 2056 2056
qxc FXO 2183 2308 2109 2179 2150 2168 2126 2236
ToD Mill. 2123 2168 2113 2113 2033 2094 2025 2086
MajOr sixjax. 2145 2279 2194 2196 2086 2172 2007 2028
Ganzi ???
Group A
- HuK 5-0 (9-2)
- NaNiwa 4-1 (8-4)
- DongRaeGu 3-2 (7-5)
- OSeed #1 2-3 (6-6)
- HayprO 1-4 (3-9)
- TLO 1-4 (2-9)
Group B
- IdrA 4-1 (9-3)
- OSeed #2 3-2 (7-5)
- Sheth 3-2 (7-6)
- BoxeR 2-3 (6-7)
- SjoW 2-3 (5-7)
- iNcontroL 0-5 (2-10)
Group C
Group D
Top 6 (unranked & slightly subjective)
Open Bracket Preview
by confusedcrib
An open bracket in a tournament represents the ideal that anyone has an opportunity win. In Starcraft terms: it's the idea that an otherwise unknown ladder gosu can fight his way through the brackets – and with a combination of skill and luck – take down his more well-known colleagues.
With that in mind, let's go through a little mental exercise...
There are a lot of reasons to focus on the open bracket this time around, but the main reason is that it's STACKED. While I pity the casual participant going into Anaheim, MLG's probably thanking them for their money. Between GSL players such as Choya and GanZi, and dark horses like Tyler and Stalife, the open bracket is almost as difficult as group competition.
There's plenty of redemption story lines to follow, notably led by Tyler, Jinro and qxc. And while the old guard seeks to regain their past glory, there's plenty of up and comers trying to prove their worth as well. The Koreans are obviously in that group, but the much improved Destiny, dde and KawaiiRice are definitely worth keeping an eye out for.
It's a shame that Mouz couldn't send MorroW and ThorZaIN out again, but there's an amazing Euro contingent that makes up for it. Everyone's favorite White-Ra will rightfully steal the spotlight, but players like meRz, ToD, and DeMusliM are definitely going to surprise American fans who haven't kept up with the Euro scene. And of course, we can't leave Fenix out, despite our inability to easily categorize him. The man is preparing for a trip to South Korea soon, so it will be interesting to see what his training has yielded.
The only reason NOT to watch is if you're a huge fan of Zerg. The open bracket has a bad case of the "poor Zergies." The award of best Zerg in the open bracket will likely be a three way toss up between Destiny, ViBE, and CatZ – whom despite their creative and entertaining styles, are not exactly tournament favorites. If anything, I'd look for an upset from Destiny, who seems to have improved a lot in the last month. At the same time I wouldn't bet my shirt on him.
All in all, the unpredictable, eat or be eaten nature of the open bracket should give it a sense of urgency and excitement that the group stage won't have. Seriously, can you imagine a foreigner knocking a Korean player out of the tournament for good? I wouldn't want to miss that moment. I can't blame you for wanting to catch DongRaeGu vs Huk, or any of Boxer's games - but for the first day, the open tournament's where the action's at.
With that in mind, let's go through a little mental exercise...
...pretend that you are at the top of your masters division, stealing points from nerds on the ladder all day, every day. Maybe you even take the odd game against a grandmaster every once in a while. You feel confident and think to yourself 'what the hell, why not?' and shell out the seventy bucks to compete in the Anaheim open bracket.
Walking onto the floor Friday evening, you begin setting up your computer gear and look across the table.
And then, reality hits.
You're not looking into the eyes of another Starcraft II player; you're starting into the fiery abyss of inevitable defeat. Across from you is the one and only Liquid`Tyler. Surely enough, you burn. But unlike his phoenixes, you remain a pile of ashes.
'No problem' you tell yourself, shuffling on to your losers bracket match. "I just got unlucky, the loser's bracket game should be easier." You hear your opponent before you see him; an incredible flurry of clicking and clacking as your opponent warms up against the computer. It's SlayerS_Alicia, who casually missed his first match to enjoy an In-N-Out burger.
After losing both of your matches, you realize that not only are out 70 dollars, but that reality has kicked you in the ass.
Walking onto the floor Friday evening, you begin setting up your computer gear and look across the table.
And then, reality hits.
You're not looking into the eyes of another Starcraft II player; you're starting into the fiery abyss of inevitable defeat. Across from you is the one and only Liquid`Tyler. Surely enough, you burn. But unlike his phoenixes, you remain a pile of ashes.
'No problem' you tell yourself, shuffling on to your losers bracket match. "I just got unlucky, the loser's bracket game should be easier." You hear your opponent before you see him; an incredible flurry of clicking and clacking as your opponent warms up against the computer. It's SlayerS_Alicia, who casually missed his first match to enjoy an In-N-Out burger.
After losing both of your matches, you realize that not only are out 70 dollars, but that reality has kicked you in the ass.
There are a lot of reasons to focus on the open bracket this time around, but the main reason is that it's STACKED. While I pity the casual participant going into Anaheim, MLG's probably thanking them for their money. Between GSL players such as Choya and GanZi, and dark horses like Tyler and Stalife, the open bracket is almost as difficult as group competition.
There's plenty of redemption story lines to follow, notably led by Tyler, Jinro and qxc. And while the old guard seeks to regain their past glory, there's plenty of up and comers trying to prove their worth as well. The Koreans are obviously in that group, but the much improved Destiny, dde and KawaiiRice are definitely worth keeping an eye out for.
It's a shame that Mouz couldn't send MorroW and ThorZaIN out again, but there's an amazing Euro contingent that makes up for it. Everyone's favorite White-Ra will rightfully steal the spotlight, but players like meRz, ToD, and DeMusliM are definitely going to surprise American fans who haven't kept up with the Euro scene. And of course, we can't leave Fenix out, despite our inability to easily categorize him. The man is preparing for a trip to South Korea soon, so it will be interesting to see what his training has yielded.
The only reason NOT to watch is if you're a huge fan of Zerg. The open bracket has a bad case of the "poor Zergies." The award of best Zerg in the open bracket will likely be a three way toss up between Destiny, ViBE, and CatZ – whom despite their creative and entertaining styles, are not exactly tournament favorites. If anything, I'd look for an upset from Destiny, who seems to have improved a lot in the last month. At the same time I wouldn't bet my shirt on him.
All in all, the unpredictable, eat or be eaten nature of the open bracket should give it a sense of urgency and excitement that the group stage won't have. Seriously, can you imagine a foreigner knocking a Korean player out of the tournament for good? I wouldn't want to miss that moment. I can't blame you for wanting to catch DongRaeGu vs Huk, or any of Boxer's games - but for the first day, the open tournament's where the action's at.
The Liquid Guide to Koreans
By: WaxAngel
The splendiferous SlayerS Clan
SlayerS_Ganzi - SlayerS_Alicia - SlayerS_MMA - SlayerS_Boxer
SlayerS_Ganzi - SlayerS_Alicia - SlayerS_MMA - SlayerS_Boxer
Let's begin with the least known member of the group. GanZi hasn't had the best of luck in individual competition so far, with only a few Code-A eliminations to his name. And yet, the SlayerS clan must have a whole lot of faith in his skill. He's been a mainstay on their GSTL team, and appears to be their #2 Terran card – just behind MMA and ahead of Ryung.
Razer is funding SlayerS' two open bracket players this tournament, and the fact that they decided to take Ganzi ahead of Ryung, Min, Yugioh, or other players with more notable tournament results speaks to how highly he must be rated internally. Right now, he seems like a classic case of nerves over skill, and that's not exactly beneficial for the MLG environment. However, SlayerS clearly believe in him, so perhaps we should, too.
That brings us to Alicia, the other open tournament player. He's clearly a top two player in the team, and some even venture to say he has the best PvT in the world (blemished only by his 0-3 loss against absurdly good TvP player OptimusPrime). His PvP is pretty good as well, but that match-up suffers from a tremendous amount of volatility as of late.
He has one big chink in his armor though: his famously weak PvZ. This makes him a really intriguing player in the tournament, as there really aren't any T or P players who you can realistically say are favored over him. However, when you consider his AWFUL showing against ZeNEXCoca in the GSL, it seems likely that the many assembled foreigner Zergs are going to give him trouble. Maybe not in the open bracket, but Idra, Sheth, and Ret all seem capable of winning a series against him. Add to that the fact that almost every map in the tournament favors the "backstab-backstab-more backstab" style of ZvP that is popular as of late, then it seems like Alicia will need a bit of bracket luck to place high in this tournament.
How about our previous champion, MMA? Interestingly enough, we haven't learned that much about him since his coronation at Columbus, except that he can play TvT extraordinarily well. His GSL Super Tournament run consisted of entirely Terran opponents, whom he all dispatched with a flourish minus eventual champion (and overall monster) OptimusPrime. And we know all too well from Columbus, that his TvZ is insane.
Similar to Alicia, he might be another case of a racially imbalanced player. We just haven't seen him play enough TvP overall, and he seems to always lose the ones that come along. His last TvP showing was against eventual Code-A champion and another beast in his own right – ZeNEXPuzzle. He played him fairly well despite the result, but a loss is a loss.
Honestly, MMA was a tad bit lucky to avoid facing more than one top-class Protoss opponent at Columbus (his last eleven games were against Zerg, with Kiwikaki being his only Protoss opponent). Huk, Naniwa, or Socke could all prove to be extremely dangerous opponents for the reigning champion.
BoxeR? Well...
...I will commit no blasphemy here.
Recent Beneficiaries of Global Capitalism
FnaticMSI.Rain - FXO.Oz - FXO.Choya
FnaticMSI.Rain - FXO.Oz - FXO.Choya
I don't mean any offense, but none of these guys were exactly at the peak of their careers when they made their moves to foreign teams. Oz and Choya had just been knocked out of Code-A when they joined, while a little bit of youthful misjudgment cost Rain his Code-S spot and his right to participate in GSL competitions for a few months.
Still, they're really goddamn good.
Rain and Oz have had the misfortune to have their records marred by a great many games against some of the best Korean players. But in the open bracket, they really shouldn't have any trouble at all until they meet fellow Koreans or the very top foreign players. Sorry Destiny fans! I think Rain is better.
Finally, I won't even sully Choya's name with some unworthy player analysis. The guy f***ing talked his destitute team to a contract with a foreign team sponsored by a finance company. He's the goddamn bonjwa of Korean coaches and managers and he deserves all of our respect.
GomTV's Ridiculously Transparent Plot
IMMvp - coL.DongRaeGu
IMMvp - coL.DongRaeGu
The plot is: GET DONGRAEGU IN CODE-S.
As we all know, the winner of MLG Anaheim is also awarded a Code-S seed. The two strongest Koreans in this tournament, by some margin, are DRG and MVP. While DRG has been unluckily languishing in Code-B for the last year, MVP has a confirmed spot in the next season of Code-S. So should the best two players meet in the final (as it so happened at Columbus; yeah I said it, MC fans), DRG will be assured a Code-S spot, win or lose.
Of course, MMA throws a wrench in the plans with his incredible TvT and TvZ, but it's not like GomTV could really justify not sending the previous champion.
GomTV's ideal scenario here is obviously MVP vs DongRaeGu. But they must still be very pleased with DongRaeGu's chances of winning the championship against any of the non-MMA Koreans at Anaheim, since Huk seems to be only legitimate foreign threat.
Oh, right. I sort of skipped the part where I explain WHY these guys are the best two players in the entire tournament, assuming everyone knew. Well, MVP has two GSL championships, which is a better resume than everyone who has ever competed in MLG combined. As for DongRaeGu, you can look here.