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[MSL] The Calm Before The Swarm

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[MSL] The Calm Before The Swarm

Text byHot_Bid
July 31st, 2009 21:21 GMT
[image loading]

Banner by alffla


The Calm Before The Swarm
Avalon MSL Quarterfinals Part I

Swarm season rolls on. In the three individual leagues, 66% of the semifinalists are Zerg. There is only a single Protoss alive in a single league, and even if you haven't followed the MSL so far, you can probably guess who that is. There are only three ZvZ finals ever: Freemura > Theboy back in 1999 when the OSL wasn't even called the OSL, and two MSLs in 2006 -- Chojja > Savior in Cyon, and Savior > Silver in Pringles 2. Now, we have a very real chance of both leagues having ZvZ finals in the same season. And to everyone's surprise, Effort is alive in neither.

Whether it was a combination of GOM, Proleague, or overrated-ness, the wheels came off the Effort bandwagon rather quickly. After his 2-0 victory over Jaedong in GOM and his triumphs over Hite and Samsung in the Proleague Playoffs, fans (especially rabid CJ fans) were ready to put Effort on Jaedong's level in terms of sheer ability. Effort was rolling, and even briefly flirted with ELO 2300 (populated by only Savior, iloveoov, Jaedong, Bisu, and Flash). Then, as brilliantly as he played in Proleague, Effort crashed, losing two series 0-3 to Iris and Calm in the GOM semis and MSL quarters. Obviously, the big question is: what happened?
  • Practice time
  • Team familiarity (Iris)
  • ZvZ build orders
Obviously, Calm had more practice time since STX was eliminated. And while Iris had the same practice time, he historically has shown great results against his CJ teammates, most notably his 2-3 loss to Savior in the Shinhan3 OSL, back when Savior was still The Man. Also, it may come as a surprise to many TL fans, but Proleague simply matters more. Not just a little bit more, a lot more. So much more that Effort and Jaedong probably spent the huge majority of their time for Proleague. Add to this a bit of unluckiness due to build orders, and Effort loses spectacularly. But that's not an excuse for Effort's losses (12-pool next time ok??). The real real reason is...
  • Experience
Jaedong has it, Effort doesn't. For Jaedong, he's been here before. He's carried his team in Proleague and made runs deep into both individual leagues simultaneously. He knows what its like to have to manage practice time in such a way. He's a win machine. Look at his series with Canata. Watching those games, does anyone really think Jaedong played at his absolute peak? Jaedong practiced exactly as much as he needed to -- just enough to win 3-2.

This is something Effort hasn't learned yet. Perhaps we were blinded by the Messiah and Heir of Savior storyline, but we expected way too much, way too fast. He's been basically perfect in Proleague Playoffs (6-1), but fans always want the Bonjwa Legend, not the human. This past week has simply proved that Effort isn't Jaedong. Did you know that Jaedong has never, in his entire career, lost more than four games in a row? Effort just lost five.

But don't let the missed opportunity of an Jaedong-Effort Bo5 in MSL Semis depress you. Their upcoming game in Proleague matters more to both of them. And they might just play another one or two or three more as their team's aces.


Match A: No Mutas, No Problem
Jaedong 3-2 Canata | Live Report Thread

(Z)Jaedong < (T)Han Solo Vulture @ Outsider
+ Show Spoiler [VOD] +
+ Show Spoiler [Recap] +
Canata opens with 8-rax bunker rush, and trades three marines, an SCV, and a bunker for five drones. Jaedong was behind, but not insurmountably. Unfortunately, the bunker rush blocked his sunken position for enough time to let Canata get a vulture into his main. Jaedong had split his lings, leaving only 3 to defend while 6 went to unsuccessfully attack Canata's wall. Canata's vulture scored 12 kills, most while in red health, and that ended the game.


(Z)Ninja Expansion > (T)Canata @ Carthage 3
+ Show Spoiler [VOD] +
+ Show Spoiler [Recap] +
Jaedong going 3-hatches while Canata opens 14cc into bio. Jaedong sneaks a ridiculously fast fourth hatch at the expo directly above Canata's base. It's a hidden expansion that Jaedong has no chance of defending it if Canata finds it. Jaedong gets both tech branches, but builds no mutas and instead goes for upgraded lurker-ling. Canata scouts Jaedong's normal third gas expo, finding no hatchery, and gets lured nicely into a stop lurker trap, losing most of his first mm army but killing five lurkers.

It's late game, and Canata still believes Jaedong is on two gas, and is playing passively with his SK army. Jaedong is upgrading his ground army and teching to hive, finally clearing the mm at his normal third gas. At this point in the game Canata has full Terran tech and several vessels, but still has no idea about Jaedong's expo near Canata's main. Jaedong chases Canata's SK army with lurker-ling-swarm, securing a fourth gas in the process.

At this point Canata has to realize something is up, because there's no way Jaedong can support those upgrades, army, and tech off two gas. Canata has been trading mm for lurkers all game, and Jaedong's army never seems to shrink. Canata's micro is decent, and he takes out Jaedong's "third" gas (really his fourth gas) but at the cost of all his vessels. The next Canata army moves out, and his face goes "wut" as its met by a full group of upgraded ultras. Canata finally discovers Jaedong's hidden expo, but it's already time to GG.


(Z)Slow Lurker Drop > (T)Canata @ Byzantium 3
+ Show Spoiler [VOD] +
+ Show Spoiler [Recap] +
Jaedong opens 2-hatch slow ovie lurker drop, which absolutely devastates Canata's factory FE into mm opening. His first group of mm move out, and two lurkers run into his main mineral line, and two more into his natural mineral line. Canata is barely defending, losing mm left and right, with SCVs transferring frantically, while Jaedong takes a third gas. Jaedong's eco isn't very powerful either, but he definitely has map control with his army. Canata has Starport but his lack of SCVs prevents him from getting tanks and vessels. A second slow overlord drop forces yet another transfer from Canata's main, timed with a frontal attack that Canata manages to beat back.

Canata finally masses a ball and pushes out, but Jaedong already has defiler and a much larger lurker-ling army, flanking perfectly with swarm plenty of units left over. Considering the opening, Canata actually plays admirably, securing a third base mineral only and pushing out, but a lurker ling drop by Jaedong seals it.


(Z)Jaedong < (T)Speed Push @ Heartbreak Ridge
+ Show Spoiler [VOD] +
+ Show Spoiler [Recap] +
This game opened like Game 1, but Jaedong played it much smarter, pulling many more drones and not engaging the bunker until he had lings. Jaedong gets a sunken up well in time, and the vulture cannot get into his main. Canata starts a cc (defended by minefield) and gets a wraith, but it isn't able to score many kills due to well timed hydras. Tanks and valks are built as Jaedong powers drones and takes a third. Jaedong flies in with mutas, which are quickly repelled by valks. Canata switches to bio, fast-pushing with his first vessel. Jaedong is at hive, his fourth gas morphing, but is forced to flank without swarm, losing most of his army. Canata arrives at Jaedongs nat just in time, and breaks through right before Jaedong's consume finishes -- even irradiate-killing the first defiler before a single swarm is cast. Excellent timing and sense of urgency from Canata -- he moved fast, often with unsieged tanks. Thirty seconds later and it would've been an easy win for Jaedong.


(Z)Jaedong > (T)Greed Overlord Hater @ Outsider
+ Show Spoiler [VOD] +
+ Show Spoiler [Recap] +
Canata opens similarly to how he did in Game 1 -- 8-rax into factory and wraith, getting a CC as well. This time, Jaedong opts for 9-pool before expanding and going 2-hatch lurker. Canata's first wraith gets one overlord, and damages a second ovie above Canata's natural cliff before being driven off by hydras.

Canata then inexplicably moves out with five marines and kills that dead ovie, but Jaedong's speedlings kill all the marines, break into Canata's main, and tear down a critical turret at the front. Canata has no detection for the lurkers that follow, and loses the game in unspectacular fashion in less than ten minutes. Horrific mistake by Canata, he'd have been fine (and probably ahead) had he not moved out with those five marines.

(Z)Jaedong advances to face (Z)Calm in the Avalon MSL Semifinals.

Due to the new MSL format that split Bo5s through two weeks, it must have been a long, annoying wait for Jaedong. To lose the first game in less than 10 minutes and then have to wait a week before getting a rematch? Tough. But Jaedong has been here before, dropping the first game but coming back. Jaedong has never lost a Bo5 if it goes to the final, deciding game.

You have to feel unsatisfied as a Canata fan. Jaedong made mutas in only one game and did virtually no damage with them. Most of Jaedong's builds were understandably tricky and more all-in due to the lack of practice. Then there's the final game, where Canata seemed to be taking the lead before his ridiculous blunder. There was no better time to beat the best Zerg in progaming -- he was underprepared and not playing his best.

Yet Jaedong still won, or Canata still lost, however you want to characterize it. The mark of a great player is winning ugly. Great players can win when they aren't playing 100%. Great players find a way. And Jaedong did exactly that -- he found a way to win 3-2 in a scrappy, dirty, ugly series.

Now, he faces Calm in the semifinals. Jaedong is not Effort -- he's a machine that at this point cannot be stopped. Calm better pray that Oz wins tonight in Proleague, because that's his best chance. If Jaedong has full practice time for this series, a 3-0 is coming.


Match B: Effortless
Calm 3-0 EffOrt | Live Report Thread

(Z)More Gas > (Z)EffOrt @ Outsider
+ Show Spoiler [VOD] +
+ Show Spoiler [Recap] +
Effort opens overlord-gas-pool while Calm opens standard overpool-gas. Both players get second hatcheries, and whether by choice or necessity (Calm had more lings) Effort places his second hatch in his main instead of his natural. Effort attempts to attack Calm's nat with lings, but is easily deflected by defending lings and mutas. Effort starts a third hatchery at his natural, but loses the first air fight decisively. Calm simply has more mutas due to the second gas. Calm's mutas move toward Effort's undefended main, and Effort can only muster a weak counter.

(Z)9-pool Speedling Micro > (Z)EffOrt @ Carthage 3
+ Show Spoiler [VOD] +
+ Show Spoiler [Recap] +
Effort opens 12-hatch and Calm 9-pool speed, and unlike the Proleague Playoff game against Great, Effort cannot defend with drones. Calm doesn't go for the natural hatchery, instead going right into the main, hitting Effort's lings as they hatch. Excellent micro by Calm, abusing speed and positioning to take down several drones and eventually overwhelm Effort, killing his natural hatchery. Effort finally secures his main, but Calm has a spire almost done, and defends Effort's last ditch counter with drones and lings.

(Z)9-pool Speedling Micro > (Z)EffOrt @ Byzantium 3
+ Show Spoiler [VOD] +
+ Show Spoiler [Recap] +
You could read the previous recap, because the exact same thing happens this game. Effort opens 12-hatch, Calm 9-pool speed. Calm runs his first lings into Efforts main and kills Effort's lings as they hatch, and eventually overwhelms him with more speedlings.

(Z)Calm advances to face (Z)Jaedong in the Avalon MSL Semifinals.

Did anyone predict this? Everyone, including me, thought this series would be an easy Effort 3-0 or 3-1. Even down 0-1, Effort was expected to rally and pull out this series. But progamer parity never ceases to surprise, and suddenly Savior's heir, the first player to beat Jaedong in a ZvZ series in over two years, gets crushed 3-0 by a guy who has had a career 50% ZvZ.

[image loading]

Yes, two of the losses were BO losses. But if you are a truly dominant ZvZ player, you can find a way to win with a slight BO disadvantage. A 12-hatch is not necessary every game, especially if you are one loss away from elimination. Effort played too risky and Calm took advantage. When Calm's lings were hitting Effort's hatching lings, Effort needed to pull drones at that moment, but failed to do so both times. Credit Calm for the aggressive builds and excellent micro, but this series does not tell us much about Calm's overall ZvZ ability. It says more about Effort's build order stubbornness.

Thus, even though Calm is peaked at 2243 ELO, he's still a huge underdog against Jaedong. He's in almost the exact same situation as last week, up against a transcendent ZvZ player who has other more important things to practice for. Can Calm sneak out yet another upset to advance to his first ever final?

The MSL organizers collectively groan -- they are this close to Bisu and Jaedong. Can you imagine the crickets in the audience if its Calm vs Kwanro?


Next Week: MSL Quarterfinals Conclusion
(P)Bisu vs (T)Iris (Iris leads 1-0)
(Z)ZerO vs (Z)Kwanro (Kwanro leads 1-0)
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@Hot_Bid on Twitter - ESPORTS life since 2010 - http://i.imgur.com/U2psw.png
motbob
Profile Blog Joined July 2008
United States12546 Posts
Last Edited: 2009-08-01 00:08:42
July 31 2009 23:41 GMT
#2
Great writeup!
ModeratorGood content always wins.
Nal_rAwr
Profile Blog Joined July 2009
United States2611 Posts
July 31 2009 23:44 GMT
#3
Happy Birthday
Nony is Bonjwa
Stuslegend
Profile Blog Joined August 2007
Canada168 Posts
July 31 2009 23:51 GMT
#4
i believe in calm to beat jaedong , i beeeeellliiieeevvveeeeee

wats an swam?
stork can have my kids in his mouth any time... no homo O_O'
Avidkeystamper
Profile Blog Joined June 2008
United States8556 Posts
Last Edited: 2009-08-01 00:02:10
July 31 2009 23:52 GMT
#5
Nice recap, but I found a few minor mistakes.

"There are only two ZvZ finals ever: Freemura > Theboy back in 1999 when the OSL wasn't even called the OSL, and Savior > Silver"
~Savior vs Chojja? Not sure though

"Did you know that Jaedong has never, in his entire career, lost more than four games in a row? Effort just lost six. "
~Five, the split Bo5s account for a loss that wasn't in a row.

"But Jaedong has been here before, dropping the first game but coming back. He's actually 11-2 in deciding games (game 3 in Bo3 and game 5 in Bo5), with his two losses against Tempest (lol) and Flash, both in Bo3s."
~He's lost to both Free and Much 2-1 in Bo3s before.
Crap that Tempest game was the low point of his entire career. =/

"[MSL] The Calm Before The Swam"
~LOL

Iris vs Bisu should be really good and Bisu has the upper hand in terms of practice time. I think the games will be close, but Bisu will still take it 3-1.

ZerO is bad at ZvZ. Kwanro is okay.

Working on your Birthday. go have fun!
Man, so many typos, is he drunk from partying?
Jaedong
qaswedfr25
Profile Blog Joined July 2008
United States212 Posts
August 01 2009 00:00 GMT
#6
You forgot Cyon MSL
n
Profile Joined May 2009
United States48 Posts
August 01 2009 00:01 GMT
#7
Typo in title. "Swam" should be "Swarm".
hyst.eric.al
Profile Blog Joined June 2009
United States2332 Posts
August 01 2009 00:02 GMT
#8
very nice article
i loved the speed of it
calm fighting!
Leta , BeSt, Calm fan forever! 김정우, I am sorry I ever lost faith in you.
Gormaol
Profile Joined July 2009
United States27 Posts
August 01 2009 00:02 GMT
#9
Jaedong isn't the heir of Savior, he's the SUPERIOR of Savior, and the most talented player in Starcraft ever. Savior has never had the abilities that Jaedong possesses in his intuitive sense in figuring out exactly where his opponent's forces are, making the best decision on how and where to strike or defend with his forces, his total map awareness, unit lethality, insanely exacting micro, and unending relentlessness and ruthlessness that can only characterize the unstoppable force of destruction that is Jaedong.
MountainDewJunkie
Profile Blog Joined June 2009
United States10344 Posts
August 01 2009 00:02 GMT
#10
How can anyone forget Chojja vs Savior? The Cowboy Zerg finally got his gold!
[21:07] <Shock710> whats wrong with her face [20:50] <dAPhREAk> i beat it the day after it came out | <BLinD-RawR> esports is a giant vagina
oob
Profile Blog Joined June 2008
Sweden630 Posts
August 01 2009 00:03 GMT
#11
Calm vs Kwanro, gogo!
Happiest man on earth
Avidkeystamper
Profile Blog Joined June 2008
United States8556 Posts
August 01 2009 00:04 GMT
#12
On August 01 2009 09:02 Gormaol wrote:
Jaedong isn't the heir of Savior, he's the SUPERIOR of Savior, and the most talented player in Starcraft ever. Savior has never had the abilities that Jaedong possesses in his intuitive sense in figuring out exactly where his opponent's forces are, making the best decision on how and where to strike or defend with his forces, his total map awareness, unit lethality, insanely exacting micro, and unending relentlessness and ruthlessness that can only characterize the unstoppable force of destruction that is Jaedong.

Jaedong
Hot_Bid
Profile Blog Joined October 2003
Braavos36390 Posts
August 01 2009 00:04 GMT
#13
On August 01 2009 09:02 Gormaol wrote:
Jaedong isn't the heir of Savior, he's the SUPERIOR of Savior, and the most talented player in Starcraft ever. Savior has never had the abilities that Jaedong possesses in his intuitive sense in figuring out exactly where his opponent's forces are, making the best decision on how and where to strike or defend with his forces, his total map awareness, unit lethality, insanely exacting micro, and unending relentlessness and ruthlessness that can only characterize the unstoppable force of destruction that is Jaedong.

If Jaedong wins an individual league this season (either MSL or OSL), then yes his achievements are greater. But for now, Savior's still more accomplished -- but even I, a huge Savior fan, can see the writing on the wall. It's only a matter of time now until we have a consensus Best Zerg Ever.
@Hot_Bid on Twitter - ESPORTS life since 2010 - http://i.imgur.com/U2psw.png
dekuschrub
Profile Joined May 2008
United States2069 Posts
August 01 2009 00:07 GMT
#14
cool writeup HB and happy birthday

i think canata goes 14 cc though on the carthage game... not 2 rax into expo.
Hot_Bid
Profile Blog Joined October 2003
Braavos36390 Posts
August 01 2009 00:09 GMT
#15
On August 01 2009 08:52 Avidkeystamper wrote:
Working on your Birthday. go have fun!
Man, so many typos, is he drunk from partying?

Word, I had no time to re-read and edit because I had to do something, and this had to be posted now before all the news is taken up by PL Playoffs.

Hopefully all the typos are fixed now!
@Hot_Bid on Twitter - ESPORTS life since 2010 - http://i.imgur.com/U2psw.png
Pooshlmer
Profile Joined August 2008
United States1001 Posts
August 01 2009 00:11 GMT
#16
Shouldn't you remove the spoiler from the front page box summary?

"Recaps of the first two Avalon MSL Quarterfinals, Jaedong 3-2 Canata and Calm 3-0 Effort."
chongu
Profile Blog Joined February 2009
Malaysia2593 Posts
August 01 2009 00:13 GMT
#17
Mmmmmmmm, Bisu vs Jaedong. One can only dream~
SC2 is to BW, what coke is to wine.
Hot_Bid
Profile Blog Joined October 2003
Braavos36390 Posts
August 01 2009 00:15 GMT
#18
On August 01 2009 09:11 Pooshlmer wrote:
Shouldn't you remove the spoiler from the front page box summary?

"Recaps of the first two Avalon MSL Quarterfinals, Jaedong 3-2 Canata and Calm 3-0 Effort."

I removed the spoilers, but tbh if you haven't watched the games four days later, don't look at the front page. I mean, all the headlines are essentially spoilers. "Calm before the swarm", "Swarm Season" and "Hope You Like Mirrors" all give away who won.
@Hot_Bid on Twitter - ESPORTS life since 2010 - http://i.imgur.com/U2psw.png
DoX.)
Profile Joined December 2008
Singapore6164 Posts
August 01 2009 00:29 GMT
#19
Holy fuck the threat of a ZvZ finals is huge
Ver
Profile Joined October 2008
United States2186 Posts
August 01 2009 00:31 GMT
#20
You do a really good job at sneaking in humor

I found the Jaedong/Canata series very interesting metagame wise.

Jaedong definitely practiced a lot and it really showed. He also was playing extremely well, perhaps not his best, but still very noticeable as Canata is quite good and armed with the best builds. The win on Byz 3 was due to his lategame prowess after getting a neutral opening (as 2 hatch slow drop is semi-allin and Canata didn't lose much). He just managed to survive because he achieved a neutral opening vs that build and then won it with his strong hive play (admittedly Canata doesn't know how to protect his vessels).

The thing is that up until now Jaedong (or anybody) has not had a counter for the SKT1 mech opening -> bio builds which just straight up beat muta builds. That is, until he unveiled his 2 hatch lurker openings which the Terran builds aren't optimized against. If Jaedong wasn't prepared he just would've went 2 hatch muta like he usually doesn't and gotten smashed by builds and Canata's fearsome play. The fact that Jaedong won shows his ability to be able to study extensively and develop a counter to fearsome builds (well after 4 months at least). Canata played really well, as the Byznatium game should've been a straight up

So basically had the first series been played out completely on that day Jaedong would've probably gotten 3-0'ed as he had no available counter to the SKT1 builds. But as it stood the extra time gave him key preparation to make a really great series.
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