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The Calm Before The Swarm
Avalon MSL Quarterfinals Part I
Swarm season rolls on. In the three individual leagues, 66% of the semifinalists are Zerg. There is only a single Protoss alive in a single league, and even if you haven't followed the MSL so far, you can probably guess who that is. There are only three ZvZ finals ever: Freemura > Theboy back in 1999 when the OSL wasn't even called the OSL, and two MSLs in 2006 -- Chojja > Savior in Cyon, and Savior > Silver in Pringles 2. Now, we have a very real chance of both leagues having ZvZ finals in the same season. And to everyone's surprise, Effort is alive in neither.
Whether it was a combination of GOM, Proleague, or overrated-ness, the wheels came off the Effort bandwagon rather quickly. After his 2-0 victory over Jaedong in GOM and his triumphs over Hite and Samsung in the Proleague Playoffs, fans (especially rabid CJ fans) were ready to put Effort on Jaedong's level in terms of sheer ability. Effort was rolling, and even briefly flirted with ELO 2300 (populated by only Savior, iloveoov, Jaedong, Bisu, and Flash). Then, as brilliantly as he played in Proleague, Effort crashed, losing two series 0-3 to Iris and Calm in the GOM semis and MSL quarters. Obviously, the big question is: what happened?
- Practice time
- Team familiarity (Iris)
- ZvZ build orders
- Experience
This is something Effort hasn't learned yet. Perhaps we were blinded by the Messiah and Heir of Savior storyline, but we expected way too much, way too fast. He's been basically perfect in Proleague Playoffs (6-1), but fans always want the Bonjwa Legend, not the human. This past week has simply proved that Effort isn't Jaedong. Did you know that Jaedong has never, in his entire career, lost more than four games in a row? Effort just lost five.
But don't let the missed opportunity of an Jaedong-Effort Bo5 in MSL Semis depress you. Their upcoming game in Proleague matters more to both of them. And they might just play another one or two or three more as their team's aces.
Match A: No Mutas, No Problem
Jaedong 3-2 Canata | Live Report Thread
![Zerg (Z)](https://tl.net/tlpd/images/Zicon_small.png)
![Terran (T)](https://tl.net/tlpd/images/Ticon_small.png)
+ Show Spoiler [VOD] +
Canata opens with 8-rax bunker rush, and trades three marines, an SCV, and a bunker for five drones. Jaedong was behind, but not insurmountably. Unfortunately, the bunker rush blocked his sunken position for enough time to let Canata get a vulture into his main. Jaedong had split his lings, leaving only 3 to defend while 6 went to unsuccessfully attack Canata's wall. Canata's vulture scored 12 kills, most while in red health, and that ended the game.
![Zerg (Z)](https://tl.net/tlpd/images/Zicon_small.png)
![Terran (T)](https://tl.net/tlpd/images/Ticon_small.png)
+ Show Spoiler [VOD] +
Jaedong going 3-hatches while Canata opens 14cc into bio. Jaedong sneaks a ridiculously fast fourth hatch at the expo directly above Canata's base. It's a hidden expansion that Jaedong has no chance of defending it if Canata finds it. Jaedong gets both tech branches, but builds no mutas and instead goes for upgraded lurker-ling. Canata scouts Jaedong's normal third gas expo, finding no hatchery, and gets lured nicely into a stop lurker trap, losing most of his first mm army but killing five lurkers.
It's late game, and Canata still believes Jaedong is on two gas, and is playing passively with his SK army. Jaedong is upgrading his ground army and teching to hive, finally clearing the mm at his normal third gas. At this point in the game Canata has full Terran tech and several vessels, but still has no idea about Jaedong's expo near Canata's main. Jaedong chases Canata's SK army with lurker-ling-swarm, securing a fourth gas in the process.
At this point Canata has to realize something is up, because there's no way Jaedong can support those upgrades, army, and tech off two gas. Canata has been trading mm for lurkers all game, and Jaedong's army never seems to shrink. Canata's micro is decent, and he takes out Jaedong's "third" gas (really his fourth gas) but at the cost of all his vessels. The next Canata army moves out, and his face goes "wut" as its met by a full group of upgraded ultras. Canata finally discovers Jaedong's hidden expo, but it's already time to GG.
It's late game, and Canata still believes Jaedong is on two gas, and is playing passively with his SK army. Jaedong is upgrading his ground army and teching to hive, finally clearing the mm at his normal third gas. At this point in the game Canata has full Terran tech and several vessels, but still has no idea about Jaedong's expo near Canata's main. Jaedong chases Canata's SK army with lurker-ling-swarm, securing a fourth gas in the process.
At this point Canata has to realize something is up, because there's no way Jaedong can support those upgrades, army, and tech off two gas. Canata has been trading mm for lurkers all game, and Jaedong's army never seems to shrink. Canata's micro is decent, and he takes out Jaedong's "third" gas (really his fourth gas) but at the cost of all his vessels. The next Canata army moves out, and his face goes "wut" as its met by a full group of upgraded ultras. Canata finally discovers Jaedong's hidden expo, but it's already time to GG.
![Zerg (Z)](https://tl.net/tlpd/images/Zicon_small.png)
![Terran (T)](https://tl.net/tlpd/images/Ticon_small.png)
+ Show Spoiler [VOD] +
Jaedong opens 2-hatch slow ovie lurker drop, which absolutely devastates Canata's factory FE into mm opening. His first group of mm move out, and two lurkers run into his main mineral line, and two more into his natural mineral line. Canata is barely defending, losing mm left and right, with SCVs transferring frantically, while Jaedong takes a third gas. Jaedong's eco isn't very powerful either, but he definitely has map control with his army. Canata has Starport but his lack of SCVs prevents him from getting tanks and vessels. A second slow overlord drop forces yet another transfer from Canata's main, timed with a frontal attack that Canata manages to beat back.
Canata finally masses a ball and pushes out, but Jaedong already has defiler and a much larger lurker-ling army, flanking perfectly with swarm plenty of units left over. Considering the opening, Canata actually plays admirably, securing a third base mineral only and pushing out, but a lurker ling drop by Jaedong seals it.
Canata finally masses a ball and pushes out, but Jaedong already has defiler and a much larger lurker-ling army, flanking perfectly with swarm plenty of units left over. Considering the opening, Canata actually plays admirably, securing a third base mineral only and pushing out, but a lurker ling drop by Jaedong seals it.
![Zerg (Z)](https://tl.net/tlpd/images/Zicon_small.png)
![Terran (T)](https://tl.net/tlpd/images/Ticon_small.png)
+ Show Spoiler [VOD] +
This game opened like Game 1, but Jaedong played it much smarter, pulling many more drones and not engaging the bunker until he had lings. Jaedong gets a sunken up well in time, and the vulture cannot get into his main. Canata starts a cc (defended by minefield) and gets a wraith, but it isn't able to score many kills due to well timed hydras. Tanks and valks are built as Jaedong powers drones and takes a third. Jaedong flies in with mutas, which are quickly repelled by valks. Canata switches to bio, fast-pushing with his first vessel. Jaedong is at hive, his fourth gas morphing, but is forced to flank without swarm, losing most of his army. Canata arrives at Jaedongs nat just in time, and breaks through right before Jaedong's consume finishes -- even irradiate-killing the first defiler before a single swarm is cast. Excellent timing and sense of urgency from Canata -- he moved fast, often with unsieged tanks. Thirty seconds later and it would've been an easy win for Jaedong.
![Zerg (Z)](https://tl.net/tlpd/images/Zicon_small.png)
![Terran (T)](https://tl.net/tlpd/images/Ticon_small.png)
+ Show Spoiler [VOD] +
Canata opens similarly to how he did in Game 1 -- 8-rax into factory and wraith, getting a CC as well. This time, Jaedong opts for 9-pool before expanding and going 2-hatch lurker. Canata's first wraith gets one overlord, and damages a second ovie above Canata's natural cliff before being driven off by hydras.
Canata then inexplicably moves out with five marines and kills that dead ovie, but Jaedong's speedlings kill all the marines, break into Canata's main, and tear down a critical turret at the front. Canata has no detection for the lurkers that follow, and loses the game in unspectacular fashion in less than ten minutes. Horrific mistake by Canata, he'd have been fine (and probably ahead) had he not moved out with those five marines.
Canata then inexplicably moves out with five marines and kills that dead ovie, but Jaedong's speedlings kill all the marines, break into Canata's main, and tear down a critical turret at the front. Canata has no detection for the lurkers that follow, and loses the game in unspectacular fashion in less than ten minutes. Horrific mistake by Canata, he'd have been fine (and probably ahead) had he not moved out with those five marines.
![Zerg (Z)](https://tl.net/tlpd/images/Zicon_small.png)
![Zerg (Z)](https://tl.net/tlpd/images/Zicon_small.png)
Due to the new MSL format that split Bo5s through two weeks, it must have been a long, annoying wait for Jaedong. To lose the first game in less than 10 minutes and then have to wait a week before getting a rematch? Tough. But Jaedong has been here before, dropping the first game but coming back. Jaedong has never lost a Bo5 if it goes to the final, deciding game.
You have to feel unsatisfied as a Canata fan. Jaedong made mutas in only one game and did virtually no damage with them. Most of Jaedong's builds were understandably tricky and more all-in due to the lack of practice. Then there's the final game, where Canata seemed to be taking the lead before his ridiculous blunder. There was no better time to beat the best Zerg in progaming -- he was underprepared and not playing his best.
Yet Jaedong still won, or Canata still lost, however you want to characterize it. The mark of a great player is winning ugly. Great players can win when they aren't playing 100%. Great players find a way. And Jaedong did exactly that -- he found a way to win 3-2 in a scrappy, dirty, ugly series.
Now, he faces Calm in the semifinals. Jaedong is not Effort -- he's a machine that at this point cannot be stopped. Calm better pray that Oz wins tonight in Proleague, because that's his best chance. If Jaedong has full practice time for this series, a 3-0 is coming.
Match B: Effortless
Calm 3-0 EffOrt | Live Report Thread
![Zerg (Z)](https://tl.net/tlpd/images/Zicon_small.png)
![Zerg (Z)](https://tl.net/tlpd/images/Zicon_small.png)
+ Show Spoiler [VOD] +
Effort opens overlord-gas-pool while Calm opens standard overpool-gas. Both players get second hatcheries, and whether by choice or necessity (Calm had more lings) Effort places his second hatch in his main instead of his natural. Effort attempts to attack Calm's nat with lings, but is easily deflected by defending lings and mutas. Effort starts a third hatchery at his natural, but loses the first air fight decisively. Calm simply has more mutas due to the second gas. Calm's mutas move toward Effort's undefended main, and Effort can only muster a weak counter.
![Zerg (Z)](https://tl.net/tlpd/images/Zicon_small.png)
![Zerg (Z)](https://tl.net/tlpd/images/Zicon_small.png)
+ Show Spoiler [VOD] +
Effort opens 12-hatch and Calm 9-pool speed, and unlike the Proleague Playoff game against Great, Effort cannot defend with drones. Calm doesn't go for the natural hatchery, instead going right into the main, hitting Effort's lings as they hatch. Excellent micro by Calm, abusing speed and positioning to take down several drones and eventually overwhelm Effort, killing his natural hatchery. Effort finally secures his main, but Calm has a spire almost done, and defends Effort's last ditch counter with drones and lings.
![Zerg (Z)](https://tl.net/tlpd/images/Zicon_small.png)
![Zerg (Z)](https://tl.net/tlpd/images/Zicon_small.png)
+ Show Spoiler [VOD] +
You could read the previous recap, because the exact same thing happens this game. Effort opens 12-hatch, Calm 9-pool speed. Calm runs his first lings into Efforts main and kills Effort's lings as they hatch, and eventually overwhelms him with more speedlings.
![Zerg (Z)](https://tl.net/tlpd/images/Zicon_small.png)
![Zerg (Z)](https://tl.net/tlpd/images/Zicon_small.png)
Did anyone predict this? Everyone, including me, thought this series would be an easy Effort 3-0 or 3-1. Even down 0-1, Effort was expected to rally and pull out this series. But progamer parity never ceases to surprise, and suddenly Savior's heir, the first player to beat Jaedong in a ZvZ series in over two years, gets crushed 3-0 by a guy who has had a career 50% ZvZ.
Yes, two of the losses were BO losses. But if you are a truly dominant ZvZ player, you can find a way to win with a slight BO disadvantage. A 12-hatch is not necessary every game, especially if you are one loss away from elimination. Effort played too risky and Calm took advantage. When Calm's lings were hitting Effort's hatching lings, Effort needed to pull drones at that moment, but failed to do so both times. Credit Calm for the aggressive builds and excellent micro, but this series does not tell us much about Calm's overall ZvZ ability. It says more about Effort's build order stubbornness.
Thus, even though Calm is peaked at 2243 ELO, he's still a huge underdog against Jaedong. He's in almost the exact same situation as last week, up against a transcendent ZvZ player who has other more important things to practice for. Can Calm sneak out yet another upset to advance to his first ever final?
The MSL organizers collectively groan -- they are this close to Bisu and Jaedong. Can you imagine the crickets in the audience if its Calm vs Kwanro?
Next Week: MSL Quarterfinals Conclusion
![Protoss (P)](https://tl.net/tlpd/images/Picon_small.png)
![Terran (T)](https://tl.net/tlpd/images/Ticon_small.png)
![Zerg (Z)](https://tl.net/tlpd/images/Zicon_small.png)
![Zerg (Z)](https://tl.net/tlpd/images/Zicon_small.png)