EPThttp://www.teamliquid.net/blogs/viewblog.php?topic_id=95009
Before I start, a lot of people have been PMing me asking what it is like to be an actuary. Rather than sending me a bunch of PMs, feel free to ask any questions you may have about being an actuary in this thread. Now, about counting cards...
How to Count Cards in Blackjack
The term “card counting” can be very broad and has different meanings depending on which system you are referring to. For the purposes of this guide, I will be discussing the Hi-Lo Counting Method for use by a single player playing relatively low stakes ($10-$100 hands) in Atlantic City. I will not drown this guide in mathematical jargon but instead limit it to all you need to know to become a successful card counter.
Why do I count cards?
1. Money.
2. I have gotten free food and rooms from casinos in terms of comps for all the time I have spent playing.
3. Free drinks.
4. It is fun to stick it to the casinos.
5. I enjoy playing the game.
Before I get started on the actual counting process, there are a few myths about card counting that I would like to debunk.
1. Card counting is illegal
Card counting is certainly not illegal. In Atlantic City, you cannot even be asked to leave the casino if you are suspected of counting. More on this later…
2. You have to be a mathematical genius to count
As long as you are able to add, subtract, and divide in your head, you can count.
3. You have to have a photographic memory
With practice, almost anyone can memorize what needs to be memorized to be a successful counter.
4. Counting means you will make huge profits immediately
If you’ve seen the movie 21, erase it from your memory. While you will win in the long run if you count, you can easily hit a bad streak of luck and lose a considerable amount of your bankroll. You will likely not be able to retire after counting for a month. It is a long process that takes a considerable amount of time and money to get started.
5. You need to be part of a card counting team
While being part of a team will increase your profits, you can still win without one.
Section 1 - The basic rules of the game
If you have ever played blackjack before, you may want to skip this section and move to Section 2.
Blackjack is a relatively simple game where the goal is to have the sum of your cards be as close to 21 as possible. 21 is the best hand and anything over 21 is a “bust” where you lose your bet. Numerical cards are worth their face value, with a Jack, Queen, and King being worth 10 and an Ace being worth either 1 or 11, whichever gives you a higher total without exceeding 21. A “soft” hand refers to any hand with an Ace that may have more than one value. For example, an Ace and a 7 would be considered a “Soft 18” as it can either be an 8 or an 18. An initial hand of Ace and any card worth 10 is considered a “blackjack” and pays out 3:2. So if you were to bet $10 and received blackjack, you would retain your initial $10 bet and also receive $15 more.
Each player starts by placing an initial bet in the betting circle in front of their seat. The dealer will then deal two face-up cards which everyone can see. The dealer starts with one face-up card and one face-down card which is hidden from everyone. After the initial cards are dealt, the players choose to take another card (hit) or to not take a card (stand). You initiate a hit by tapping the table in front of your bet with a finger and you initiate a stand by waving your hand over your bet in a straight line. After the final player is done, the dealer reveals his face-down cards and then proceeds to hit until he has at least a 17 or he busts. If your sum is greater than the dealer’s sum or the dealer busts while you are still in play, you win. If your sum is less than the dealer’s sum or you bust, you lose. If you and the dealer have equal sums, it is a “push” and you neither win nor lose any money. Note that if you bust and then the dealer busts after you, you still lose your initial bet. This is one of the reasons that the dealer has an advantage over the player.
Other than “hitting” or “standing,” there are two other moves that I will discuss in this guide. If you have two identical cards in terms of value (88, 22, AA, KQ, 10J) on your initial two cards, you may choose to “split” them. You initiate a split by placing a matching bet next to your initial bet and holding up your index and middle finger like the peace sign. Splitting allows you to play two hands at once with each hand having one of your original cards. For example, if you are dealt two 8’s, you can split them and instead of having a lousy total of 16, you can start off with 2 new hands with 8 being one of the cards for both hands. If you are dealt ANOTHER 8, you may split again if you match your initial bet. Most casinos allow 3 splits total or 4 hands at once.
The next move I will discuss is “doubling down.” You initiate this move by placing an additional bet (can be anything from 0 to your initial bet) next to your original bet and holding up your index finger. After initiating a double down, you receive one (AND ONLY one) more card to complete your hand. For example, if you were dealt a sum of 11 with your initial two cards, you could choose to double down and receive one more card.
I will not discuss the “surrender” rule because I have never seen it available in AC.
Section 2 – Basic Strategy
So now you know how to play the game, but surely you want to know how to WIN the game. In blackjack, there is always a correct move given the situation. Basic strategy is ALWAYS right (unless you are counting, but I will cover that later). While basic strategy will not give you an advantage over the house, it will reduce the house’s edge to less than 0.5%, which is very good and the best odds you will see in the casino involving any game where you are playing against the house. You may be thinking, “How is basic strategy always right if it still give the house an advantage?” The answer is that basic strategy always either maximizes your expected win, or minimizes your expected loss. For example, by hitting a 16 against a 10, you are still going to lose the vast majority of the time, but you will lose less often than if you were to stay. Although the house does have a slight advantage, combining basic strategy with card counting will turn the tides in your favor.
Each casino has its own set of rules for their blackjack games, and for this guide I will be focusing on S17 (Dealer has to stay on a soft 17), 6 deck games that allow doubling down after a split. My casino of choice in Atlantic City, the Borgata, adheres to these rules.
While “Basic Strategy” is very basic and simple, it will take some time to memorize effectively. Here is a chart of what to do in any situation that may arise.
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![[image loading]](http://img3.imageshack.us/img3/7742/basicstrategy.jpg)
Always, always, ALWAYS do what the chart tells you to do. If you hit 16 against a dealer 7 ten times in a row and every time you end up busting, it does not change the fact that it is the CORRECT MOVE. Don’t really want to split your 8’s against a dealer Ace? Too bad. One of the most important things for a card counter to have is an unshakable faith in the system. There will be tough losses, but you have to be able to forget about them and realize that the system is correct and the only way to win in the long run is to follow it. I have heard many players say something to the effect of, “Sometimes you have to go with your gut!” This is code for, “I don’t know how to maximize my winnings in this game and I do not understand probability.”
Your task is to memorize that basic strategy chart like the back of your hand. If need be, make flash cards with certain situations that are giving you trouble and quiz yourself. You should be able to instantly know what to do in any situation that may arise. If you are struggling to remember basic moves in the comfort of your own home, you do not stand a chance in the fast paced chaos that is the casino.
I would recommend against proceeding to Section 3 if you have not yet memorized the basic strategy table. Basic strategy is the backbone of card counting and you cannot win without it.
Section 3 – The Running Count
To be blunt, the higher the count is, the better off you are as a player and the more you want to bet. What is the “count” you ask?
The Hi-Lo count is a relatively simple way to count cards. In this system, the cards 2-6 are given a point value of +1, 7-9 are given a value of 0, and 10-A are given a value of -1. All you have to do is either add 1 or -1 to your after the dealer shows each card. So if the dealer deals a 10, K, 7, the count is -2. If the dealer deals 2, A, 4, 3, 3, 7, 6, Q, 2 the count is +4. Simple enough, right?
As you are playing, you should have a “running count” in your head which takes into account all cards that have been dealt in this current shoe. (6 decks in this case) For example, if you had a running count of +9 in your head, and the next card dealt was a 7, the running count would remain +9. If the next card was a 10, the count would be +8. If the running count was -3 and a 2 was dealt, the running count would then be -2.
When I keep the count in my head, for positive numbers I will simply think of the number and for negatives I will insert an “M” before the number. For example, a count of +3 would be 3 and a count of -3 would be M3.
A good trick that I like to use is to count each card in pairs. This way, sometimes you will get two cards that cancel each other out (2K, 78, 4A, etc) and you will not have to adjust your running count in your head. I like to wait until the first player receives his second card to begin counting on any given hand. That way, I can immediately begin adjusting my running count by looking at two cards at a time.
Now that you know how to keep a running count, you should begin to practice immediately. Just take any full deck of cards, remove three of the cards, and go through the deck as fast as you can while looking at two cards at a time. After you are done with the deck, you should have a count ranging from M3 to 3, and then you can check the three cards you set off to the side to see if you had the correct running count. Both speed and accuracy are of the utmost importance for this drill, so keep practicing until you consistently get the correct count. You want to be able to get through one deck accurately in less than 30 seconds. I have not done this drill in a few months and just went through a deck in 25 seconds. It may be challenging at first, but you will get the hang of it if you keep at it. Once you can get an accurate count in under 30 seconds 10 times in a row, you should be confident enough to move on to the next step.
Section 4 – The True Count
I told you in order to count cards, you needed to know how to add, subtract, and divide. This is the dividing portion of the lesson. While a running count is great, the true count is really the tool that allows you to make some money. The true count is simply the running count divided by the number of decks remaining in the shoe. For example, in a 6 deck shoe, if the dealer has already dealt 1 whole deck and the running count is +10, the true count would be +2. If the dealer dealt 2 decks and the running count is +7, the true count is 7/4, or +1 if you round down (I always do).
To determine how many decks are left in the shoe, I look at the discard rack and subtract however many decks are in there from 6. For example, if I see 1 deck in the discard rack, it means there are 5 decks left to play. 4 decks discarded, 2 decks left to play, etc. If you really have a good eye, feel free to try to pinpoint it down to half decks if you’d like, but as a beginner I’d recommend staying with full decks to avoid mistakes.
To avoid having the shoes dealt down to the last card, there are “cut cards” that the dealers place in the shoe to tell them to shuffle after the deck has reached a certain point. Most dealers insert the card at around 75% of the shoe meaning 4.5 decks played in a 6 deck game. The deeper the cut card (the more decks that will be dealt), the better it is for you so be sure to scout out the tables and dealers for a decent cut before you sit down.
Section 5 – Betting System
As I mentioned earlier, the higher the count, the greater the advantage is for the player. This translates into, “If the count is high, bet more.” This is the betting system I use and note that the count is the True Count, not the Running Count. As I said before, I always round the true count down to the nearest integer.
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![[image loading]](http://img3.imageshack.us/img3/1756/beti.jpg)
Additionally, if the count is positive, I like to play more than one hand at a time. If there is nobody to your left or right, most casinos will let you play up to three hands at once. So when the True Count is greater than or equal to 5, I will bet $100 on three spots for a total of $300 if possible. Spreading the $300 over three spots will be less risky than just betting the $300 on one spot because you have three different hands that you may win or lose.
My minimum bet is $10 which is the minimum you will find at most casinos. Ideally, your maximum bet should be about 10x your minimum bet. Your maximum bet should also be 1/100 of your total bankroll that you are willing to lose playing blackjack. So with a maximum bet of $100, my blackjack bankroll is $10,000. The reason for this is that although you may have the advantage, it is possible to lose a lot of big bets in a row. Having your big bet set as 1% of your bankroll reduces the chances of you going bankrupt to almost impossible.
If you want to live on the edge and have your max bet set at $100 with a bankroll of anything less than $10,000, just be aware that with bets of $100 you could get on losing or winning streaks of $3,000+ at any given time fairly easily.
Section 6 – The Illustrious 18
The Illustrious 18 are variations on basic strategy that you should adopt after the count reaches certain points. As the true count reaches or exceeds the specific number in each of the following situations, you should make the opposite move of what you would normally do.
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![[image loading]](http://img30.imageshack.us/img30/8893/i18z.jpg)
Section 7 – Closing Thoughts and Tips
1. Do not place any bet in front of you that you cannot afford to lose.
2. Sitting at the leftmost seat will give you the most time to count as you will be dealt last.
3. Scout the tables out to sit at the table with the deepest cut card possible.
4. If the move is to double down, always do the maximum.
5. For Atlantic City casinos, I recommend the Borgata. They have great rules for blackjack and it is also a very nice casino in general.
6. If you want to play a $10 table, get there in the early afternoon. The later it gets, the higher the limits become.
7. You will hear other players say things that are false all the time. Do not argue with them unless you just want to get frustrated.
8. You WILL lose a huge amount at some point. One instance where I was playing 3 hands at once, I lost $700 in 3 hands, or about 90 seconds. You have to be able to emotionally handle swings like that.
9. What another player at the table does has no effect on how much you are expected to win. A player doing a stupid move will help you just as often as it hurts you.
10. Keep a log of your trips. It is always good to see progress you have made.
11. In Atlantic City, the casinos cannot kick you out for card counting.
12. On more than one occasion, the pit boss has become suspicious of me and limited my betting to one hand at a time as well as shuffling the shoe a lot more often than normal. This hurts my expected winnings, but it beats getting kicked out.
13. Be friendly with the dealer, other players and pit boss if possible. It will throw the casino off your scent.
14. This is my log of all my trips to AC since I have started counting.
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![[image loading]](http://img29.imageshack.us/img29/3040/logy.jpg)
I hope you guys have found this to be informative. If you have any questions, let me know.
Watched some videos before on card counting in Blackjack and this guide is really cool and interesting. Once I'm 18 I think I can start going to casinos here in California and Las Vegas when I'm 21 :DDD 
