EPTTL Mafia XXXVIII
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TranceStorm
1616 Posts
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TranceStorm
1616 Posts
On April 10 2011 02:28 Mr. Wiggles wrote: The thing about the pardoner is that he better have a damned good reason when he pardons someone if it's not town consensus. He can only pardon once. If he does that randomly when town is voting out a scummy player, like the GF in your example, then we just caught two scum anyways, because the pardoner's revealed himself as anti-town, and the person he saved was already the lynch target. Another danger a mafia pardoner could pose is that if suspicion falls on them in a previous day, they could shut down the lynch at the very start of the day before any real discussion has begun. Of course, it places them under immense suspicion but it also takes away a valuable town lynch and gives the mafia a free round of hits. Furthermore, since the pardoner/mayor knows who the bodyguards are, meaning that the mafia could hit those roles easier. | ||
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TranceStorm
1616 Posts
On April 10 2011 18:25 urashimakt wrote: Well, seeing as Mafia can only PM Mafia and no one else is allowed to PM, I'd be super impressed if he managed to somehow backstab us by allying with the Mafia. There is always the possibility that he is a mafia pretending to be an assassin in order to win himself an elected position on the merits of the arguments he listed earlier. But I'm not particularly inclined to this view because as of right now because that strategy would be exceedingly risky at the very beginning of the game. If we were to elect Protactinium, at the very least, we would make sure that a clear non-mafia were elected for the time being. However, I am concerned about his commitment to being pro-town if elected. From his own admission, he says that: Obviously, if I lose the election, theres no way I can help town without dying. Assassins aren't bulletproof nor do they have extra lives in this game, so if I try to be pro-town, mafia will just shoot me or roleblock me, nullifying me completely. Thats 100% certain death for me. This means that I'm forced to ally with the mafia. And that's relatively easy for me to do. The terms are simple, they don't roleblock me or shoot me, and I don't analyze them or shoot them. Played correctly, Assassins aren't a huge threat to either Mafia or town, nor are they gamebreaking like a lategame SK. Of course, what should happen if he were to be elected, and both bodyguards were to die? The chances are slim of course, but the fact is that he could switch sides at critical moments (i.e. when he is one of the deciding votes between the mafia and town). In the early game, Protactinium would definitely be town-sided, but resulting changes to the circumstances of the game could radically change his allegiances. Oh and lastly, I don't think he would be able to 'ally with mafia' like he claims if he weren't elected since another assassin would take him out to further their own chances at victory. Like other people of reiterated, I would recommend that the pardoner would be the best position for Protactinium on the basis that an assassin would have little reason to ever pardon someone, but at the same time, we have a confirmed non-mafia who is able to give good analysis of player behavior and who will survive for the later stages of the game. | ||
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TranceStorm
1616 Posts
On April 11 2011 04:56 Pandain wrote: But this is the PANDAIN PLAN 1.Proctat reveal the two bodyguards. 2. Watchers are HEAVILY advised to visit these people. Obviously there may not be a watcher(even though there likely is.) But the most important thing is that the threat remains the same. This makes it very risky for the other assasins to even attempt to shoot the bodyguards for fear of losing. They will most likely have to wait a couple days, during which we shall have ample time to find them. Proctat will be helping town while still fulfilling his role condition. There is no reason not to vote for him. Sure, this will keep the bodyguards alive and keep the the people elected alive, but it will definitely take away the usefulness of the watcher, since the mafia/assassins' will be guaranteed to steer clear of them. Furthermore, if the mafia/assassins were to accidentally hit the watchers, the following turn we could be pretty sure that the bodyguards would be dead as well since they've been outed. | ||
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TranceStorm
1616 Posts
On April 11 2011 05:13 chaoser wrote: Sup Trancestorm, nice to know you've been lurking and reading all of the stuff but saying nothing about it. What do you think about Prot's campaign? Kita? DrH? Hey, I just got on the thread and read all the stuff, and Pandian's points were the first I had something to respond to. Personally, as I said earlier, I feel uneasy about Prot's campaign because of his potential for swapping allegiances later in the game. The other candidate's I don't have any clear reads on since there is absolutely no and since we can't confirm anything. I'm inclined to believe that Pandian is the detective from my personal gut feeling from his original post though, even though I don't think his idea to reveal himself was all the great for the town. | ||
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TranceStorm
1616 Posts
On April 11 2011 05:24 Pandain wrote: Please explain. As I see right now, Proctat's only allegience is to himself. But we also hold him by the strings: We can lynch him if he tries to go against us. Right now Proctat will be: 1.Sharing dt results. 2.Giving vital information and using his experience to help lynch correctly. 3.Confirm the two bodyguards. I explained in a post that I made much earlier that Prot has the potential to change his allegiance at any time. At moments when the mafia/town counts become more even, Prot could throw his weight behind an assassin suspect rather than a mafia suspect in hopes of winning the game immediately. None of this will happen in the first few days of course, but the fact that it could happen combined with the fact that he can kill without repercussion (or recognition) makes me uneasy about electing him. Electing a pro-town candidate will guarantee that the elected officials are constantly hunting for mafia rather than looking to further their own win-condition. | ||
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TranceStorm
1616 Posts
On April 11 2011 07:46 Kavdragon wrote: My current suspect list is Protactinium Chaoser DrHelevetica Chaoser gets added because he was sheeping behind some really bad ideas, adding to the flames of arguments that shouldn't have ever started, and acting generally scummy. I have no analysis yet, so it still a lowish level read, but it's still a read. Oddly enough, GMarshal has not shown himself to be clearly townie to me, and I'm not sure why. It just seems like he could be repeating his townie meta, or it could just be that I'm really used to it being super obvious that he is town. Not a FoS yet, but something that I think is odd. He usually has plans, and that's strangely missing. You'd think that he'd have them since he's running for mayor. Odd. I think the support for GMarshal is a bit suspicious at the moment. Everyone seems to justify their vote for GMarshal on the basis that he is the most pro-town and that argument is thrown around alot. But it seems like alot of people are sheeping to his side without alot of justification for why. Personally, I think that Dr. H has been the most town to me because of his aggressive approach. I don't think any mafia would want to make that aggressive of a start at the beginning of a game - they'd rather appear more passive to the town. Would a mafia risk making that many contradictions at the beginning of a game? Dr. H's accusations seem a bit erratic and scattergun and may cause trouble later down the road, in my opinion he is the most town out of all the candidates making him the safest choice for me. | ||
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TranceStorm
1616 Posts
On April 11 2011 08:06 Jackal58 wrote: Sorry about that. I was going to ask TranceStorm if he would be more comfy if people voted GM because he was scummy. Sorry, I don't fully understand your question. My argument isn't that any of the candidates are particularly scummy, my argument is that Dr. H is the least scummy to me because of the reasons that I had listed earlier and I wanted to hear more people explain their votes. | ||
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TranceStorm
1616 Posts
On April 11 2011 23:03 Mig wrote: Right I don't know about anyone else for sure all I said was that I know that I am green obviously and I made a guess that there's a decent chance ON is green just because if he were red I figured he would have fingered me as red. Just reading over everything, but if OriginalName turns up red, that points out a much better chance that Mig is green. Why? Because what mafia would give a detailed analysis of their own teammate on day 1? Mafia want to take suspicion off of their own teammates and any analysis someone else whether guilty or innocent would warrant more suspicion. Its far more likely that scum would give their analysis on players who they know are not scum before putting analysis on people in their team in later rounds. | ||
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TranceStorm
1616 Posts
On April 11 2011 23:53 redFF wrote: At the time Mig was getting a good amount of heat for DrH, ON "analysed" him with no real content and concluded that he was green. The only think i can take from is that ON doesn't want people thinking Mig is red Ok, reading back to when ON gave his analysis, I am going to have to agree with you here. Ignore the analysis I gave earlier, I had forgotten that Dr. H had been putting pressure on Mig. But, I don't believe that if ON turns up guilty that we have a conclusive pin on Mig. My gut instinct is that Mig is town. | ||
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TranceStorm
1616 Posts
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TranceStorm
1616 Posts
On April 12 2011 09:10 DoctorHelvetica wrote: It's kind of a truce thing. If mafia starts killing off bodyguards then I know either A) Pardoner is scum or B) One of the bodyguards is scum and makes scumhunting considerably easier for me. Vice-versa for the pardoner as well. First of all, the bodyguards cannot be scum as they are drawn from random townies. Second of all, the danger of the mafia knowing who the bodyguards is not the threat to the bodyguards themselves and the elected officials, but rather are through the fact the mafia knows what people are investigative blues (watcher/detective/tracker) and therefore narrows down their search. | ||
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TranceStorm
1616 Posts
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TranceStorm
1616 Posts
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TranceStorm
1616 Posts
Pointless, since both the mayor and pardoner are immune to night actions. | ||
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TranceStorm
1616 Posts
On April 13 2011 07:29 Jackal58 wrote: + Show Spoiler + On April 13 2011 07:08 Rean wrote: What he's saying is that lynching ON might be a gamble, but it's one with a high reward. Either we kill him, he flips red and we've got a few red buddies to point out, or he flips green and then people like RedFF will start to be very red. A risk that might just be worth taking, unless there's another good option. Lynching for information is like fucking for virginity. Lol yes, that is one way to put it, but the information we could get from lynching ON is extremely limited. If he were to show up red, the people that he might implicate would be Mig and possibly GMarshal as well due to their association with him, but those links are still relatively weak. You'd need more evidence then 'association with a mafia' to justify a lynch in the later days. If ON turns up green, we get just about zero information since a ton of people have already suspected him of being mafia. | ||
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TranceStorm
1616 Posts
If you are actually the Detective, why would you claim? Why not simply push for a lynch on Coagulation using the reasons you have discovered without revealing that you are actually the detective? Now clearly the roleblocker will block you making you relatively ineffective. Is this because you don't want the other assassins' to hit you next turn or because you want medic/watcher on you next night? | ||
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TranceStorm
1616 Posts
On April 13 2011 14:55 DoctorHelvetica wrote: Note who didn't get hit: bumatlarge chaoser kitaman27 jackal58 aidnai redFF all potential power players or people who had very strong opinions/cases on day 1 that avoided death during the night. hopefully DT's got a hit last night and there will be a strong push for a good lynch today based off that. I would think any of these people would make great investigation targets. Surprised at the choice of darmousseh, otherwise I'm not that shocked at the hit choice. If I'm mafia I'm thinking I want to take out big town talkers though. Don't wanna WIFOM about it too much, but anyone who was a "big town target" that didn't get hit (there were no missed hits) is worth an analysis and a dt check. Its equally likely though, that the mafia knew that these people were most likely to be protected because of their strong opinions/cases on day 1. Therefore, they chose to hit people who they thought would not be medic protected - explaining why they did not double-up on any particular person. Just because these people did not get hit, does not mean anything particular in my opinion. | ||
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TranceStorm
1616 Posts
From my cursory glance at the thread, no one has seemed to step up and deny that Serejai is probably a mafia, but everyone seems to glide over the issue to focus on other lynch targets. I think this is currently misguided, we can't know for certain if any of those people are mafia or not so we should wait for a few more night actions. On the other hand, we have an almost guaranteed mafia in the form of Serejai. The likelihood that Serejai is mafia is far greater than that of any of the other players, each of whom seems to have lots of supporters and detractors. | ||
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TranceStorm
1616 Posts
On April 15 2011 08:34 DoctorHelvetica wrote: I think Serajai is definitely town aligned. I have an issue with Serajai that must be resolved with the mod first though. Really? If you read his posts, they just seem to ignore all possible notions of logic meaning that he is deliberately putting on this facade of being new. No person would ever say that they believe that someone is correct because their icon is that of a DT unless they were deliberately acting in an illogical fashion. | ||
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